Joint science academies’ statement:
Global response to climate change
Climate change is real potentially cost-effective technological options that could
There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system contribute to stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations.
as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now These are at various stages of research and development.
strong evidence that significant global warming is However barriers to their broad deployment still need to be
overcome.
occurring1. The evidence comes from direct measurements
of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean
Carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for many
temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in
decades. Even with possible lowered emission rates we will
average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes
be experiencing the impacts of climate change throughout
to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that
most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed the 21st century and beyond. Failure to implement
significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions
to human activities (IPCC 2001)2. This warming has already
now, will make the job much harder in the future.
led to changes in the Earth's climate.
The existence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is Prepare for the consequences of
vital to life on Earth – in their absence average climate change
temperatures would be about 30 centigrade degrees lower Major parts of the climate system respond slowly to
than they are today. But human activities are now causing changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Even if
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases – greenhouse gas emissions were stabilised instantly at
including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, today’s levels, the climate would still continue to change as
and nitrous oxide – to rise well above pre-industrial levels. it adapts to the increased emission of recent decades.
Carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 ppm in Further changes in climate are therefore unavoidable.
1750 to over 375 ppm today – higher than any previous Nations must prepare for them.
levels that can be reliably measured (i.e. in the last 420,000
years). Increasing greenhouse gases are causing The projected changes in climate will have both beneficial
temperatures to rise; the Earth’s surface warmed by and adverse effects at the regional level, for example on
approximately 0.6 centigrade degrees over the twentieth water resources, agriculture, natural ecosystems and
century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change human health. The larger and faster the changes in
(IPCC) projected that the average global surface climate, the more likely it is that adverse effects will
temperatures will continue to increase to between 1.4 dominate. Increasing temperatures are likely to increase the
centigrade degrees and 5.8 centigrade degrees above 1990 frequency and severity of weather events such as heat
levels, by 2100. waves and heavy rainfall. Increasing temperatures could
lead to large-scale effects such as melting of large ice
Reduce the causes of climate change sheets (with major impacts on low-lying regions
The scientific understanding of climate change is now throughout the world). The IPCC estimates that the
sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. It combined effects of ice melting and sea water expansion
is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they from ocean warming are projected to cause the global
can take now, to contribute to substantial and long-term mean sea-level to rise by between 0.1 and 0.9 metres
reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions. between 1990 and 2100. In Bangladesh alone, a 0.5 metre
sea-level rise would place about 6 million people at risk
Action taken now to reduce significantly the build-up of from flooding.
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will lessen the
magnitude and rate of climate change. As the United Developing nations that lack the infrastructure or resources
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to respond to the impacts of climate change will be
(UNFCCC) recognises, a lack of full scientific certainty particularly affected. It is clear that many of the world’s
about some aspects of climate change is not a reason for poorest people are likely to suffer the most from climate
delaying an immediate response that will, at a reasonable change. Long-term global efforts to create a more healthy,
cost, prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with prosperous and sustainable world may be severely hindered
the climate system. by changes in the climate.
As nations and economies develop over the next 25 years, The task of devising and implementing strategies to adapt
world primary energy demand is estimated to increase by to the consequences of climate change will require
almost 60%. Fossil fuels, which are responsible for the worldwide collaborative inputs from a wide range of
majority of carbon dioxide emissions produced by human experts, including physical and natural scientists, engineers,
activities, provide valuable resources for many nations and are social scientists, medical scientists, those in the humanities,
projected to provide 85% of this demand (IEA 2004)3. business leaders and economists.
Minimising the amount of this carbon dioxide reaching the
atmosphere presents a huge challenge. There are many
Conclusion
We urge all nations, in the line with the UNFCCC · Launch an international study5 to explore scientifically-
principles4, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of informed targets for atmospheric greenhouse gas
climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the concentrations, and their associated emissions scenarios,
issue is included in all relevant national and international that will enable nations to avoid impacts deemed
strategies. As national science academies, we commit to unacceptable.
working with governments to help develop and implement · Identify cost-effective steps that can be taken now to
the national and international response to the challenge of contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net
climate change. global greenhouse gas emissions. Recognise that delayed
action will increase the risk of adverse environmental
G8 nations have been responsible for much of the past effects and will likely incur a greater cost.
greenhouse gas emissions. As parties to the UNFCCC, G8
nations are committed to showing leadership in addressing · Work with developing nations to build a scientific and
climate change and assisting developing nations to meet technological capacity best suited to their circumstances,
the challenges of adaptation and mitigation. enabling them to develop innovative solutions to mitigate
and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, while
We call on world leaders, including those meeting at the explicitly recognising their legitimate development rights.
Gleneagles G8 Summit in July 2005, to: · Show leadership in developing and deploying clean
energy technologies and approaches to energy efficiency,
· Acknowledge that the threat of climate change is clear and share this knowledge with all other nations.
and increasing.
· Mobilise the science and technology community to
enhance research and development efforts, which can
better inform climate change decisions.
Notes and references
1 This statement concentrates on climate change associated with global warming. We use the UNFCCC definition of climate change, which is ‘a change
of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’.
2 IPCC (2001). Third Assessment Report. We recognise the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
3 IEA (2004). World Energy Outlook 4. Although long-term projections of future world energy demand and supply are highly uncertain, the World
Energy Outlook produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is a useful source of information about possible future energy scenarios.
4 With special emphasis on the first principle of the UNFCCC, which states: ‘The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and
future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof’.
5 Recognising and building on the IPCC’s ongoing work on emission scenarios.
Academia Brasiliera de Ciências Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Brazil Canada China
Academié des Sciences, Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Indian National Science Academy,
France Leopoldina, Germany India
Accademia dei Lincei, Science Council of Japan, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Italy Japan Russia
Royal Society, National Academy of Sciences,
United Kingdom United States of America
