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Joe Tranquillo

An Introduction
to Complex Systems
Making Sense of a Changing World
An Introduction to Complex Systems
Joe Tranquillo

An Introduction to Complex
Systems
Making Sense of a Changing World

123
Joe Tranquillo
Bucknell University
Lewisburg, PA, USA

ISBN 978-3-030-02588-5 ISBN 978-3-030-02589-2 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02589-2

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Preface

Every book emerges from an author’s belief that something is missing. In the case of
a scholarly work, it may be a new idea, critical connection, or a deeper exploration.
In the case of an educational work, it is that some important topic has not been made
sufficiently digestible to those not already in the know. In either case the publication
of the work, and whether anyone reads it, is contingent on if something really is
missing and if the book fills that hole. I cannot promise that this book fills a gap, but
I can explain a bit of the backstory.
Over the course of working with undergraduate students on research projects,
I found that I was constantly bouncing new students between literature in neuro-
science, game theory, network theory, nonlinear dynamics, and systems theory. The
existing texts and articles seemed to be either written as popularizations for the lay
audience or were encyclopedias of the entire field (often filled with equations) writ-
ten for those already in the field. To help my students, I began writing short intro-
ductions to each of the areas that surrounded my research area. My selfish intent was
to quickly bring them up to speed so that they could read the literature, start forming
and answering their own hypotheses, and contribute to my research program.
Around the same time, a few senior faculty sat in on my neural signals and
systems course. Every Friday the class would discuss “big topics,” such as free will,
consciousness, neurolaw, or artificial intelligence. So as not to distract the students,
the faculty formed their own small discussion group. That group continued on for
the next 4 years, meeting every week, and eventually grew to 32 faculty, staff, and
administrators. Complex systems readings and topics made many appearances at
these informal meetings. After our discussions I found myself jotting down short
snippets into a file on my computer.
My scattered notes remained in that file for at least a decade until I had the
opportunity to teach a new elective on Complex Systems. Due to a fortunate glitch
in scheduling, students majoring in engineering, finance, anthropology, economics,
innovation and design, management for sustainability, physics, and biochemistry all
signed up. With such a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the room, I made the
decision to teach the course using principles from complex systems. For example,
the interrelationships between students formed a network in which ideas could
bubble up and be passed around. My role was not only to maintain this network as
v
vi Preface

the instructor but also to participate as a student. Discussions encouraged all of us

to connect together ideas and experiences from outside of class. Individual writings,
class exercises, group meta-reflections, and a few guest discussion leaders made for
a very interactive learner-centered environment.
Teaching in this way meant that class time could not be used for lecture. I
found it helpful to introduce concepts through reading assignments. My scattered
notes began to take some shape. As they did, and through the course discussions,
three broad themes emerged, which I thought of as sparks I hoped I would
ignite: Curiosity, Connections, and Citizenship. All three are expanded upon in the
introduction and should be thought of as muscles that can be exercised while reading
the main text. Intentional practice really does help one improve.
The text is not meant to be anywhere near a complete picture of Complex
Systems. You will find many holes that will hopefully pique your interest to look
at the sources, start your own a discussion group, or visit one of the many complex
systems centers. As I often hear from past students, I would love to hear from you—
whether it is to correct an issue with the text or to share a new insight or project you
are working on. You can find me at [email protected].
I must give a heartfelt thank you to all of the research students I have had over
the years. They were the first readers of this text and helped me more clearly define
my audience. I must also thank my many colleagues, especially the members of the
Brain, Mind and Culture discussion group who showed me just how far outside of
my traditional scientific background complex systems could be applied. A special
thanks goes out to George DeMartino, Jim Baish, Mark Haussmann, John Hunter,
Tom Solomon, Kevin Meyers, Joe Meiser, Charles Kim, Margot Vigeant, Jason
Leddington, Mathew Slater, and Doug Candland. Many of them have read drafts
of this text and provided outstanding suggestions. I must also thank Martin Davalos,
a graphic design student who made my awful hand-drawn images into works of art.
My publisher, and more specifically Michael McCabe, Marta Moldvai, and Charles
Glaser, helped give me some much-needed focus and advice throughout the project.
I also need to reluctantly thank Wikipedia. As a faculty member, I have been trained
to not respect or trust it as a source. But it is an outstanding example of emergence
and proved useful in tracking down obscure sources. In fact, you might gain more
by reading up on the index terms on Wikipedia than marching linearly through this
book. My first class of Complex Systems students struggled through the earliest
complete draft of this text and were so patient and forgiving. I know that they taught
me more than I taught them. My second class of Complex Systems students kept
me honest and made many excellent suggestions on how to improve the readability.
I also must thank Green Day, Kate Rusby, Keith Urban, Bach, deadmau5, Dave
Matthews Band, Rage Against the Machine, Taylor Swift, Iron and Wine, Clifford
Brown, and countless other artists that I listened to while writing and editing. If you
press your ears closely to these pages, you might even hear them. Lastly, I must
thank my family for bearing with me early in the mornings, on weekends, in the car,
on vacation, and at night, while I wrote, revised, and revised some more.

Lewisburg, PA, USA Joe Tranquillo

Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Why Complex Systems? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 About This Text . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.3 Complex Systems Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.4 Understanding the Real World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.4.1 Ways of Knowing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.4.2 How Much of the Real World Can We Really Know? . . . . 16
1.4.3 Models as Ways of Knowing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.4.4 Analogies and Isomorphisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.4.5 Decomposability and Reductionism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.4.6 Holism and the Relationships Between Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.4.7 Determinism and the World as a Machine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.4.8 Organic Thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.4.9 Repeatability, Refutability, and Predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.4.10 The Relationship Between Randomness
and Unpredictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.4.11 Repeatability in Adaptive and Non-linear Systems . . . . . . . 23
1.4.12 Refutability and Complex Causal Loops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.4.13 Tools and Literature That Span Disciplines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.4.14 Complex Systems and the Computer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.5 Gatherings and Continued Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.5.1 Vienna Circle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.5.2 The Macy Conferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.5.3 The Santa Fe Institute . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.5.4 Group You Could Join . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.6 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.7 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

vii
viii Contents

2 Simple Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.1 Simple Rules: Complex Behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.1.1 Logistic Equation of Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.1.2 The Discrete Logistic Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.1.3 Dynamics of the Discrete Logistic Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.2 Cellular Automaton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.2.1 Conway’s Game of Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.2.2 Wolfram’s Automaton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.2.3 The Scientific Process and Abduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.3 Many Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.3.1 Mobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.3.2 Flocking and Schooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.3.3 Segregation Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.3.4 Video Games and Leaking Buckets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.4 Implications of Simple Rules and Emergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.4.1 Logical Types and Epiphenomenon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.4.2 Effectual Thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.4.3 Points of View . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.5 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
2.6 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3 Non-linear Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.1 Differential Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.1.1 Linear Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.1.2 Non-linear Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.1.3 Numerical Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.2 The Geometry of One-Dimensional Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.2.1 Classification of Equilibrium Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.2.2 Velocity Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.2.3 Basins of Attractions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.2.4 Bifurcations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.2.5 Classification of Bifurcations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.2.6 Hysteresis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.3 Two-Dimensional Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.3.1 Phase Space and Trajectories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
3.3.2 Nullclines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.3.3 2D Velocity Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.3.4 Stability of Equilibrium Points. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.3.5 Basins of Attraction and the Separatrix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.3.6 Limit Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.3.7 Bifurcations in 2D Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
3.3.8 Building and Simplifying Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.4 Three-Dimensional Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
3.4.1 Chaos in Three-Dimensional Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
3.4.2 Strange Attractors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.4.3 Fast-Slow Systems and Bursting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Contents ix

3.5 Implications of Chaos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

3.5.1 Predictability of Deterministic Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.5.2 The Robustness of Non-linear Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.5.3 The Arts and Non-linear Dynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
3.5.4 Metastable Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
3.5.5 Parallel Trajectories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
3.5.6 Free Will as Chaos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
3.6 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
3.7 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4 Pattern Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.1 Symmetry Breaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.1.1 Benard Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.1.2 Ising Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
4.1.3 Artists Breaking Symmetry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4.2 Turing Pattern Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.2.1 Growth and Differentiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
4.2.2 Spirals, Spot, and Stripes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.3 Limit Cycles as Patterns in Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
4.3.1 Pacemakers and Other Rhythms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.3.2 Sychronization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.3.3 Complex Synchronization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.3.4 Swimming, Walking, and Flying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.3.5 Delays . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
4.3.6 Bursts and Queuing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
4.3.7 The Simple Machines of Complex Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4.4 Fractals as Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
4.4.1 The Logistic Equation Revisited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
4.4.2 Fractals and Power Laws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
4.4.3 Mandelbrot and Fractals in Nature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
4.4.4 Strange Attractors as Fractals in Phase Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
4.5 Autocatalytic Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
4.5.1 The Brusselator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
4.5.2 Autocatalytic Memory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
4.6 Patterns in Other Spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
4.6.1 Evolutionary Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
4.6.2 The Pattern of “I” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
4.7 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
4.8 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
5 Networks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
5.1 Theory of Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
5.1.1 Simple Networks and Neighbor Connectivity. . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
5.1.2 Trees and Hierarchies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
5.1.3 Properties of Nodes and Edges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
5.1.4 Random and Orderly Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
x Contents

5.1.5 Six Degrees of Separation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

5.1.6 Small-World Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
5.1.7 Scale-Free Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
5.1.8 Ecosystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
5.1.9 Gene and Cell Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
5.2 Adjacency Matrices and Network Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
5.2.1 Adjacency Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
5.2.2 Node Degree and Histograms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
5.2.3 Centrality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
5.2.4 Pathlength and Diameter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
5.2.5 Clustering and Clustering Coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
5.2.6 Applications to Small-World Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
5.2.7 Maintaining Connections and Redundancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
5.2.8 Nested and Overlapping Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
5.2.9 Business Networks and Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
5.3 Scale-Free Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
5.3.1 Histogram of the Scale-Free Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
5.3.2 Power Laws in Language and Wealth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
5.3.3 The Long Tail and the Black Swan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
5.3.4 Universality of Scale-Free Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
5.4 Growing Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
5.4.1 L-Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
5.4.2 Rich Get Richer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
5.4.3 Tiling and Pruning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
5.4.4 Network Phase Transitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
5.4.5 Structurally Adaptive Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
5.4.6 The Emergence of Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
5.4.7 Evolution and Hierarchies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
5.4.8 Humans and Technological Becoming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
5.5 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
5.6 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
6 Information Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
6.1 Information Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
6.1.1 Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
6.1.2 Bayes’ Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
6.1.3 Shannon’s Information Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
6.1.4 Measures of Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
6.1.5 What Can Carry Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
6.2 Applications to Communication, Genes, and Language. . . . . . . . . . . . 184
6.2.1 Communication and Noise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
6.2.2 Genetic Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
6.2.3 Language . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
6.2.4 Information in Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
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6.3 The Theory of Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

6.3.1 A Short History of Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
6.3.2 Other Forms of Computation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
6.4 Artificial Intelligence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
6.4.1 The Goals of Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
6.4.2 Creating an AI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
6.4.3 The Turing Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
6.5 Meaning as Information Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
6.5.1 Networks of Information and Models of the World . . . . . . . 196
6.5.2 Consciousness, Mind, Story, and Self . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
6.6 The Unknowable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
6.6.1 Gödel’s Proof . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
6.6.2 The Halting Problem and Traveling Salesmen . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
6.6.3 Quantum Information and Computing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
6.6.4 Sending Codes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
6.7 Privacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
6.8 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
6.9 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
7 Thermodynamics of Complex Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
7.1 Irreversibility and the Origin of Thermodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
7.1.1 Entropy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
7.1.2 The Molecular Meaning of Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
7.1.3 The First Law of Thermodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
7.1.4 Work on a System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
7.1.5 The Second Law of Thermodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
7.1.6 Not All Energy Can Do Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
7.1.7 Maxwell’s Demon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
7.1.8 Approaches to Equilibrium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
7.1.9 Autocatalytic Reactions (Revisited) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
7.1.10 The “Problem” of Order and Complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
7.1.11 Semipermeable Barriers and Network Entropy . . . . . . . . . . . 228
7.2 Open Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
7.2.1 The Input of High-Quality Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
7.2.2 The Dissipation of Low-Quality Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
7.2.3 System Metabolism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
7.2.4 Snowflakes and Crystal Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
7.2.5 Phase Transitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
7.2.6 Traffic and Second-Order Phase Transitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
7.2.7 Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
7.2.8 Instability and Patterns Far from Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
7.2.9 Doing Work on the Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
7.2.10 Functionally Adaptive Machines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
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7.3 Structural Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

7.3.1 What Complex Systems Build . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
7.3.2 Balancing an Energy Budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
7.3.3 Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
7.3.4 The Discovery and Encoding of New Functions . . . . . . . . . . 244
7.3.5 The Adjacent Possible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
7.3.6 Life and Mind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
7.4 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
7.5 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
8 Game Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
8.1 Zero-Sum Games and Game Trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
8.1.1 Game Trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
8.1.2 Rational Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
8.1.3 Minimax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
8.1.4 Emergent and Infinite Game Trees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
8.2 Non-Zero-Sum Games . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
8.2.1 Prisoner’s Dilemma and Nash Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
8.2.2 The Ultimatum Game . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
8.2.3 Other Games . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
8.2.4 Repeated Games and the Evolution of Cooperation . . . . . . 261
8.3 Multiple Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
8.3.1 Tragedy of the Commons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
8.3.2 Fitness Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
8.4 Interspecies Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
8.4.1 The Red Queen and Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
8.4.2 Individual or Group Fitness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
8.4.3 Symbiosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
8.4.4 The Evolution of Technology, Economies,
and Cultures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
8.4.5 Diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
8.4.6 Genetic Algorithms and Evolutionary Computing . . . . . . . . 272
8.5 Game Theory in the Real World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276
8.5.1 Spatial Game Theory and Stereotypes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
8.5.2 Bounded Rationality and Intuition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
8.5.3 The Origin of Bounded Rationality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
8.5.4 Fast and Slow Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
8.5.5 Emotions and Bounded Rationality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
8.5.6 Impossible Spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
8.5.7 Trust and Further Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
8.6 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
8.7 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
9 Dynamics of Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
9.1 Network Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
9.1.1 Diffusion of Innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
9.1.2 Properties of Innovations and Metcalfe’s Law . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
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9.1.3 The Network Power of Weak Ties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299

9.1.4 Inhibition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
9.1.5 Network Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
9.1.6 Spread of Viruses, Rumors and Fashion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
9.2 Network Motifs and Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
9.2.1 Motifs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
9.2.2 Networks as Logic Gates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
9.2.3 Recombination and Hierarchies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
9.2.4 Pathways to Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
9.2.5 Learning Revisited. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
9.2.6 Action Networks and Expertice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
9.3 Origins and Autopoiesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
9.3.1 The Origin of Complex Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
9.3.2 Mechanisms of Complexification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314
9.3.3 Autopoietic Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
9.3.4 Artificial Life and Viruses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
9.3.5 Gaia and Detecting ET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
9.4 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
9.5 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322
10 The Edge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
10.1 Reaching Criticality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
10.1.1 Self-Controlling Order Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
10.1.2 Self-Organization of Internal Rules and Constraints. . . . . . 325
10.1.3 Tuned Chaos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
10.1.4 Power Laws and 1/f Noise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
10.1.5 Tensegrity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
10.2 Self-Organized Criticality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
10.2.1 Sandpiles and Avalanches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
10.2.2 Pennies and Avalanches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
10.2.3 Insights from the Sandpile Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
10.2.4 Avalanches in Other Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
10.2.5 Evolution, Extinction, and Missing Links . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
10.2.6 Technological Disruption and Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
10.2.7 Relationship Between CAS and SOC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
10.2.8 Healing, Biodynamics, and the Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
10.3 Systems That Tune to Their Environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338
10.3.1 Conway’s Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339
10.3.2 Coadapting Agents and Environments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340
10.3.3 Paradigm Shifts: Evolution vs Revolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
10.3.4 Tangled Hierarchies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
10.4 Creative Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
10.4.1 Dissolved Networks and Discovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
10.4.2 Intermittent Creativity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
10.4.3 Building Tension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
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10.5 Being Human . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346

10.5.1 What Is a Self . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346
10.5.2 Free Will and Consciousness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
10.5.3 Moral Systems and Stories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
10.5.4 Tools and the Extended Mind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351
10.5.5 The Singularity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
10.5.6 Staying Human . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
10.6 Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
10.7 Resources and Further Reading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
11 Criticisms and Future Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
11.1 Criticisms of Complex Systems Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
11.1.1 Complex Systems Theory Is Not New. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
11.1.2 Models, Stories, and Predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
11.1.3 Definitions Are Murky at Best . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
11.1.4 Promises, Transcendence, and Arrogance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
11.2 Future Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
11.2.1 Complex Machines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
11.2.2 Applications to New Fields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
11.2.3 Education and Complex Systems Thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
11.2.4 Problems and Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368
11.2.5 Complex Systems Alphabet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
11.3 Waiting for the Integrator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
Chapter 1
Introduction

Marco Polo describes a bridge, stone by stone.

“But which is the stone that supports the bridge?” Kublai Khan
asks.

“The bridge is not supported by one stone or another,” Marco

answers, “but by the line of the arch that they form.”

Kublai Khan remains silent, reflecting. Then he adds: “Why do

you speak to me of the stones? It is only the arch that matters to
me.”

Polo answers: “Without stones there is no arch.”

- Italo Calvino in La citta‘ invisibili (trans. William Weaver)

Complex systems are all around us. Some were created by nature, such as ant
colonies, gene networks, ecosystems, and brains. Others were created by us, such as
political systems, stock markets, language, technology, and cities. In this book we
will explore the interdisciplinary field of complex systems theory that aims to gain
deep insights into how real-world systems work. Along the way, we will study tools
that include chaos and fractals, game theory, networks, agent-based models and
information theory. These tools will help us approach some important questions in
new ways and find common patterns that appear in many systems. How do complex
systems emerge or self-organize? How are they more than the sum of their parts?
How do they develop and adapt but eventually decay? What does it mean for a
system to be healthy or sick? What does it mean for a system to be diverse? Is it
possible to intentionally design a complex system? Are there general principles that
might apply to all complex systems?
These are the kinds of questions a physicist would ask. You likely experienced
physics through mind-numbing problem sets in which you calculated how long it
takes for a ball to drop from the Leaning Tower of Pisa. You should throw away
the misconception that physics is about solving math problems. Rather, image Jen
the physicist. One morning Jen makes herself a cup of coffee, swirls in some
sugar, and adds a few drops of milk. She notices a dynamic spiral of the light

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 1

J. Tranquillo, An Introduction to Complex Systems,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02589-2_1
2 1 Introduction

milk against the dark coffee. Later that day Jen visits her friend the biologist who
works on cyclic AMP signaling in slime molds. Her friend explains that although
a slime mold is a tiny organism, many thousands of them can cluster together and
communicate using cyclic AMP. What is more, these communication patterns, under
the right conditions, can form beautiful spirals. Jen digs deeper and finds even more
examples. Spiral galaxies arise from the balance of competing forces. The circadian
rhythm is a molecular spiral that develops over time. Spirals are the root cause of
cardiac arrhythmias, the dangerous self-looping electrical patterns that can lead to
cardiac fibrillation. It turns out that electrical spirals occur in every human heart but
are only sustained in sick hearts. It seems that everywhere Jen looks she sees spirals.
Because Jen is a physicist, she does not care if the media is electrical, chemical,
or mechanical or if the spiral occurs in space or time. Perhaps at some deeper level, a
spiral is a spiral. Jen will ask herself some questions: What is it about these particular
systems that allow them to support a spiral pattern? Why are some spirals stable
while others are ephemeral? How do spirals form from non-spirals? What kinds of
events can break up a spiral? Jen is an imaginary physicist, but real physicists have
asked these questions. They have found that spirals can form in systems that have
a balance between the two competing phenomena of reaction and diffusion. When
the balance is right, spirals can form.
Spirals are just one pattern we will explore. In fact, you can think of complex
systems as a sort of catalog of interesting real-world patterns that appear over and
over again. By collecting universal patterns of complex systems and building up the
tools needed to get to the heart of how they form and are sustained, a more holistic
picture of all complex systems will emerge.

1.1 Why Complex Systems?

There is some reason you are reading this book. It may have been assigned. You
may be looking for tools to apply to your own discipline. Perhaps it was general
curiosity. Whether your reasons are intrinsic or extrinsic, my hope is that you will
discover additional reasons to keep reading. Below I offer three reasons, what I call
sparks, that I hope will inspire you to keep exploring.
The first spark is the ability to make connections across time, space, actors, ideas,
feelings, and patterns. Forming connections is how networks form. Connections are
also the basis for learning new knowledge and skills, making sense of the world
around us through narratives and using life’s experiences to build new things. All
too often we think of learning as the acquisition of knowledge. But a mind can
also expand and become better able to synthesize new information. Making new
connections is at the heart of cognitive stretching—that feeling when we realize our
capacity to juggle ideas has just expanded. An expanded mind can contain within it
multiple, perhaps even conflicting, ideas. The ability to synthesize meaning out of
the barrage of information coming from multiple sources, formats, and degrees of
trustworthiness is something that will only become more important in the future.
1.1 Why Complex Systems? 3

The second spark I hope to ignite will be dispositional curiosity—a general

interest in the world around you. This can be contrasted with situational curiosity
which is focused much more narrowly on a specific topic that you may find
immediately useful. Dispositional curiosity is what I hope you will display when
you are not reading this text—to go out into the world and find your own examples.
Not because you must but because it is intrinsically fun to learn how things work.
It is unreasonable to think, however, that a specific topic will hold your interest for
very long. A wide range of concepts, disciplines, and examples will be touched
upon that deserve much deeper exploration and if followed will exercise your
dispositional curiosity.
The third spark is to engage with the world as a citizen of multiple nested and
intertwined disciplines and organizations. Being a careful observer is a first step.
A good citizen does not ignore things they do not understand but instead tries to
make sense of new information. Knowing a lot on its own, however, does not make
one a good citizen. Taking action out in the world is critical. Throughout the text
there are ideas on how to diagnose problems, strategically develop interventions
as experiments, execute tactics, marshal resources and assess impacts. Regardless
of what you might call this process (e.g., change management, science, design),
complex systems thinking can serve as a grounding framework for change and
action out in the world.
The world is becoming radically more interconnected and networked. As a result,
almost all corners of the world and fields of knowledge are accelerating. In his
book The Seventh Sense, Joshua Cooper Ramo (1968–) claims that the ability to
see and leverage networks will define the next generation of leaders. The field
of complex systems lives in the interstitial spaces between disciplines. This is
where the action is—in finding ways to create new network connections between
disciplines. For example, the interactions between biological and non-biological
systems (e.g., neuro-marketing, humanlike “smart” robots, epidemiology based
upon big data and algorithms, buildings that can “breathe”) are all hot areas that
are ripe for exploration.
If network thinking is a seventh sense, then perhaps complex systems thinking
is an eighth sense. Seeing the evolution of patterns in the world will become even
more critical in the future. Yet we are often pushed to become disciplinary experts
as quickly as possible and therefore only recognize patterns in our own fields. In
this regard studying complex systems will challenge you to look outward to other
disciplines. The framework intersects the nature of free will and consciousness, the
workings of various political theories, the origin of life, human behavior, moral
systems, and other tantalizing philosophical topics. It can also have a fun side,
revealing a bit about how ideas pop into your head, why jokes are funny, and how
it is that traffic can back up and then paradoxically release even when there is no
construction or accidents. No single book can dive deeply into these questions. We
will only be able to scratch the surface. But it is hoped that you will begin to see
complex systems concepts everywhere in the world.
4 1 Introduction

1.2 About This Text

Your understanding of complex systems will not come all at once. Rather it will
emerge throughout the book. Concepts will be introduced, often in a simplistic way
first and then refined. For example, you likely have an intuitive idea of what it means
for a system to be stable. Throughout the text, however, the idea of stability will
occur again and again, each time enriching the concept of stability. This approach
follows one of the tenets of complex systems theory—that meaning is achieved
through connections. The more connected a concept is, the richer the meaning it
achieves. The epigram that stated this chapter parallels this approach. We can try to
understand an arch by studying the parts, but an arch can only truly be understood
as a holistic pattern of connections between parts. The dilemma is that reading a
book is inherently a linear process, showing one idea and then the next. I have laid
out a particular narrative that I hope will help you form a larger whole. But it is just
one possible story. For that reason, rereading sections in a different order may reveal
new connections between concepts.
Each chapter will introduce a major tool or approach, introduce terminology, and
give examples from a wide range of systems. Some will be quantitative and others
qualitative. The qualitative parts are meant to be readable by anyone with an open
mind. The equations within the text are at the level of undergraduate math and aim
to demonstrate how some of the ethereal concepts discussed by philosophers can be
approached (sometimes well and other times not so well) by scientists. Try not to
skip over the text in the mathematical sections as there are important insights hidden
within. Along the way several key players (both historical and current) will be
introduced along with the titles of seminal works in the field. I would encourage you
to exercise your dispositional curiosity by reading more about their lives and work.
Each chapter ends with prompts that are meant to serve two related purposes.
First, additional concepts are embedded in the questions. Simply reading them over
may supplement the ideas in the chapter. Second, you can pick two or three prompts
that resonate with you and then wrestle with them. This will allow you to engage in
a more active way with the concepts from that particular chapter. A format I have
found helpful in my classes is to answer the prompts in the form of meditations
(modeled after Descartes). These are musings, not essays, that encourage an active
approach to searching and thinking. Making this practice a habit will be the key
to making the concepts personal rather than theoretical. You might also use the
prompts as a way to spark discussion among your friends, relatives, and colleagues.
As my students did, you will begin seeing complex systems concepts waiting in line
at Dunkin’ Donuts, kayaking down a creek, or having a conversation with a friend.
The term “complex systems” will be used throughout the text in three different
ways. First, we will assume that complex systems are coherent entities that exist
in the world. Second, the field of complex systems is a human-created field or
discipline, composed of people, interconnections of ideas, terminology, processes,
and analysis methods. Third, complex systems thinking is an individual mindset
and a way of learning about and acting upon the world. There is a tight relationship
between these three different uses of “complex systems”—the discipline of complex
1.3 Complex Systems Concepts 5

systems uses complex systems thinking to try to uncover the underlying nature of
the complex systems that are out in the world.
Furthermore, what it means for a system to be “complex” is not easy to define.
To some, complexity is about order and disorder. To others, it is about degrees of
symmetry or the distribution of network connections. Complexity is also sometimes
defined as the richness, diversity, or unpredictability of the flow of information or
materials. Still others measure complexity as the range of functions that can be
expressed. As you will discover throughout the text, there is no unifying definition
of complexity.
I have made every attempt to distinguish between well-established ideas and
those that are more speculative. This presents a problem. Some of the ideas have
been robustly proven and adopted by a wide range of disciplines. Others are only
accepted within particular disciplines. Still others are intriguing and presented
for illustrative purposes. A few are my own musings. In general, each chapter
begins with the most established ideas, proceeds to the more speculative, and then
concludes with the most controversial topics. Although some effort has been made
to distinguish between these levels of rigor and certainty, complex systems theory
is a dynamic field where ideas are coming and going all of the time. You are
encouraged to question everything.
Every broad introductory text will be missing, or will underemphasize, important
topics. I could blame this on the fact that complexity is a new and rapidly evolving
discipline. In reality it is because of my limit background. It is not possible to be an
expert in all of the fields we will touch upon. To help fill in some gaps, each chapter
concludes with a list of resource where you can go to dig deeper.

1.3 Complex Systems Concepts

You already know a great deal about complex systems because you are immersed
in them all of the time. The formal study of complex systems, however, can
be disorienting. The field is inherently interdisciplinary, drawing from sociology,
genetics, economics, ecology, immunology, city planning, mathematics, embryol-
ogy, computer science, politics, and many other fields. Each field has their own
tools, definitions, terminology, methods, and historical twists and turns, as well
as particular ways of asking and answering questions. Sometimes these fields
are well aligned, but more often than not, there are tensions, contradictions, and
misunderstandings. As we explore complex systems, keep in mind that we are
looking for patterns that cross and bind together disciplines.
To make sense of a new field, it can help to have an initial framework. New
information can be hung on this framework, and in the process, the framework itself
becomes richer. Daniel Dennett (1942–) provides a nice analogy for frameworks
in his book Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking. If one is creating an
original painting, every stroke is obsessed over, and particular brushes and mixes
of colors are chosen for specific purposes. On the other hand, if a home painter is
6 1 Introduction

Fig. 1.1 Inputs to and

outputs from a system. The
In Out
definition of the inputs and System
outputs will define the system
boundary

looking to patch up peeling paint on an archway, they might grab any old brush
and get to work. If that same home painter is painting an entire room, perhaps
needing to apply several coats, they might invest in rollers, painter’s tape, and other
tools. Industrial painters who paint the outsides of houses and building will set up
scaffolding. Although setting up a scaffold system takes time, once up, the rest of
the job goes much more quickly. Think of this section as setting up the intellectual
scaffolding that we will use throughout the text.
A System Is Any Collection of Parts That Interact The parts can be physical or
conceptual. A car is a system. So is a political system. A human body is a system
and so is a cell. Spoken language and writing are systems created from words
and phonemes. But language is itself a system, composed of rules that are used
to construct new sentences. Religious systems are composed of historical events,
the writings of important thinkers, moral principles, beliefs, physical structures, and
policies. Each of these systems is formed from interlocking parts that work together
to create a coherent whole.
A System Divides the World into Two Parts Inside the system is everything that
is included, and outside is everything that is not included. A system definition or
model draws the boundary between inside and outside. Depending on the parts, this
boundary could be physical or conceptual, but it is a logical necessity. As inputs
and outputs are considered to be outside the system, they can help define the system
boundary. Figure 1.1 shows a graphical representation of a system (as a box) with
an input (arrow pointing in) and an output (arrow pointing out). The arrows are
sometimes called signals and may contain flows of information, matter, or energy.
Some systems are closed, meaning that they are entirely self-contained and do not
interact with anything outside. Aside from a few special conceptual systems, no real
physical system is truly closed. Open systems, on the other hand, accept inputs and
send out outputs. In this case the system boundary is permeable to matter, energy,
or information.
Structure Is How the Internal Parts of a System Are Related Relationships may
be defined by simple rules, equations, or logical operations that connect variables or
ideas. They may also be physical proximity or pathways such as tunnels, pipes, or
channels that connect parts together. Structure is about relationships.
Networks Are a Useful Way to Represent Complicated Structures When a
structure is composed of many parts or many relationships (or both), it is often
called complicated. Representing such systems using boxes and arrows can become
cumbersome. Networks are a more compact graphical way to show relationships in
1.3 Complex Systems Concepts 7

Fig. 1.2 A network as a graphical representation of a system

complicated structures. A relatively simple example is shown in Fig. 1.2. Chapter 5

will explore networks.

Flows on a Structure Determine Function Flows can take many forms. They
might be logical or mathematical, such as A follows B or iterations of a rule over
and over again in time. They might also be the physical flow of some material,
energy, or information in space. Some systems, such as the agent-based models in
Chaps. 2 and 4, will have flows in both time and space. It is the flows within a system
that express functions or behaviors. As such, function and structure are inseparable.
We will explore the flow of information in Chap. 6 and the flow of information on
networks in Chaps. 7–9.
Structure Is Necessary But Not Sufficient for Functions to Be Expressed
Structure does not dictate function but rather acts as a constraint for flows. Different
structures can in fact produce identical functions. For example, a Rube Goldberg
machine performs a very simple task in an overly complicated way. They are
amusing because a much simpler structure could perform the same function. On
the other hand, a system might contain within it several ways to perform the same
function. Consider two cities that are connected by a highway and several backroads.
On a normal day, most of the traffic would stay on the highway. But if there is an
accident, traffic could be rerouted onto backroads. Structural redundancy in flow
pathways allows multiple ways for a function to be achieved.
Systems Are Constrained by the Physical Laws of the Universe All of the
complex systems we will study, even the most mathematical, will live in the real
world. Without becoming immersed in a long philosophical debate, one can assume
that an idea or equation still exists somewhere in the physical world, perhaps in a
book, on the internet or the synaptic connections of your brain.
8 1 Introduction

All functions, being based upon physical flows, will be constrained in some
important ways. All will require time to complete. These delays, perhaps so short
that they are imperceptible, can occur for a variety of reasons. At a minimum,
nothing can travel faster than the speed of light. All flows also rely in one way
or another on some conservation law. Some quantity within the system cannot be
created or destroyed. For electrical systems this is a unit of charge. For chemical
systems it is matter. It would be tempting to think of money as non-conserved in
that it can be taken out of circulation, accrue interest, or become devalued due to
inflation. When framed in terms of flows, however, these additions or subtractions,
whether they are internal or external to the system, are treated as money sources
or sinks. When accounting for all of these sources and sinks, the flow of money is
assumed to be conserved. In fact, it is often a violation of conservation that tips off
an auditor that some financial transactions are occurring “off the books.”
Functional Adaptation Is a Way to Selectively Express Latent Functions
Complex systems rarely, if ever, express all possible functions at the same time. For
example, the blinkers on your car are always present, but they are only expressed
when a user flips a switch. The blinkers on your car are a latent function. People are
not always consumers in an economy. Predators are not hunting prey all the time.
Ants are not always exploring. Rather, functions in a complex system are adaptively
expressed, calling up latent functions by diverting flows away from other functions.
As such, the same structure can flexibly express a range of functions in response to
both internal and external events. As we will explore in Chaps. 3, 4, and 9, several
simple functions might be turned on together to form a more sophisticated function.
Feedback Is a Mechanism for Controlling Function Expression Functions of
a complex system are not only selectively turned on and off, but they may also
contain features such as speed, strength, color, or other attributes that can be tuned.
Something must be in charge of this tuning. Tuning can be achieved by an outside
source in the form of an input. Such is the case of a user-controlled device such as a
switch, knob, or slider. Another possibility is that the system could tune itself. Self-
tuning is usually achieved through feedback. The most basic version of feedback is
shown on the left side of Fig. 1.3, whereby an output is looped around and reenters
the system as an input.

Negative Feedback Is a Mechanism for Error Correction and Control When

an output is fed back in as an input, it can act to make the next output smaller. When
repeated over and over again such a loop is known as negative feedback. In general,
negative feedback prevents an output from becoming too large. It is associated with
making a system more stable by converging to an equilibrium.
A common need of a system is to tune two variables until they match one
another. Consider a variable that is desired to be at a particular value, often called
a set point. The actual value, however, is not at this point. Negative feedback
can be used to minimize the difference, sometimes called an error. Maintaining a
variable (e.g., temperature, pressure, pH, wealth) at an ideal point is how systems
1.3 Complex Systems Concepts 9

System

System 1 System 2

Fig. 1.3 Generic feedback (top) and feedforward (bottom) systems

can remain dynamically stable—deviating for a time from some desired point but
always snapping back when the deviations become too great. This is the mechanism
by which variables such as temperature can be controlled in your home and in your
body.
Positive Feedback Can Lead to Vicious or Virtuous Cycles When an output
is fed back in as an input, it may also result in a larger output. Positive feedback
amplifies small flows and signals and is associated with growth and instability. As
positive feedback will amplify, it can lead to virtuous cycles (e.g., the more you
exercise, the better it feels and so the more you exercise) or vicious cycles (e.g.,
lower socioeconomic classes may lack adequate health care and education which
causes the next generation to be even less well-off). This idea was highlighted in a
psychological study where participants were asked to push one another. Participant
1 would give Participant 2 a slight push. Participant 2 would then push back with
what they perceived to be the same force. This would continue on for several back-
and-forth cycles. What scientists found was that the force of the pushes quickly
escalated. A vicious cycle had been created through positive feedback.
Feedforward Can Coordinate Functions When There Are Delays Feedforward,
shown on the right hand side of Fig. 1.3, is a way of alerting a system that
information is coming. Feedforward can be positive (a sort of wake-up call for
a function) or negative (inhibiting a function to stay in the background). While
feedback is used to react to past events, feedforward is a means of anticipating future
events. As such it forms the basis for planning and is important in systems that have
significant delays.
10 1 Introduction

Feedback and Feedforward Are the Basis of Many Simple Functions Above
it was argued that they form the basis for control, amplification, and planning.
Feedback and feedforward also help gate flows on simple structures that give rise
to sensors, memory, clocks, and actuators. For example, when a system needs to
react to a small signal (either internal or external), it can use positive feedback as an
amplifier. On the other hand, if a function should be turned off, some combination
of negative feedback and feedforward can be used to quiet that function so that
another function can be expressed. Other simple functions can detect, store, time,
and compare internal and external signals.
Recombination and Iteration Expand Possibilities A simple example can be
illustrated with pennies. Given a single penny, there are only two possible configura-
tions, heads or tails. When we add a second penny, there are four possibilities—both
heads, both tails, and two ways to have one head and one tail. As more pennies
are added, the number of possibilities explodes. This process becomes even more
explosive if we consider playing cards where there are more possible states for each
card. A similar argument can be applied to the four genetic bases, which code for
20 amino acids, which can be used to create thousands of different proteins. In the
context of systems, the recombination of functions works in the same manner.
Recombined Functions Can Become Non-linear Flows between functions are
the means by which functions can be recombined. Complex functions, however,
require not only the right simpler functions but also the right interconnections
between those functions. An arch is a nice structural example—it requires the
individual stones but also the proper relationships, for an arch to be achieved. More
complex flows can give rise to behaviors that are more (or less) than the sum of their
parts. Such a phenomenon is known as nonlinearity and will be explored in Chap. 3.
Processes and Ideas Can Also Be Recombined Auguste Escoffier (1846–1935)
revolutionized French cooking by recombining processes. Deglazing, whereby
ingredients are purposely burned on the bottom of a pot and then reconstituted to
form a savory sauce, does not use any new ingredients. It was the process that was
new. Capitalism and Marxists are the recombination of economic ideas that aim to
form sustainable structures. Evolutionary theory is also a series of interrelated ideas.
Most fields of study, from geology to politics, contain a set of grounding ideas that
are recombined in different ways to create subfields or camps. We will dive deeper
into the origin and dynamics of disciplines in Chap. 10.
Iteration Is Also a Recombination but in Time Imagine having many copies of
the same function. An input goes into the first instance of the function. The output
of this first instance is then sent into the second instance as an input. Then the output
of the second function becomes the input to a third copy of the function and so on.
Feedback (both positive and negative) achieves iteration with only one copy of the
function and will be explored in simple mathematical functions in Chap. 2. Just as
new possibilities can arise when parts are recombined in space, iteration can lead to
new possibilities in the evolution of a system.
1.3 Complex Systems Concepts 11

Patterns Emerge in Space and Time in Both Structure and Function The
iteration of simple rules in time and the recombination of parts in space can lead to
patterns that are larger in space or longer in time than any individual part or function.
As Fritjof Capra (1939–) describes in his book The Systems View of Life, “Emergent
properties cannot be reduced to the properties of the parts.” A classic example
is of water (H2 O) molecules. One molecule on its own might be interesting, but
something magical happens when we allow water molecules to interact. A fluid can
display properties that a single molecule cannot. Another example is the description
of a pin factory by Adam Smith (1723–1790) in An Inquiry In the Nature and
Causes of the Wealth of Nations. No single worker knows how a pin is actually
made because the labor and knowledge are divided among them. Somehow out
of local communication between workers, pins are made. Smith famously dubbed
this phenomena the invisible hand to describe how the macro-level patterns of an
economy emerge from the micro-level decisions of people and organizations.
To return to the playing card analogy, there is an entirely different kind of
possibility that emerges with two cards that is not possible with one card. They could
be positioned such that they counterbalance one another and rise off of the table.
The ability to move cards into three-dimensional space is fundamentally different
than being trapped on a two-dimensional surface. Rising into a third dimension can
only be achieved when there are multiple cards. Similar arguments can be made
for atoms, people, ants, brush strokes, DNA base pairs, phonics, bricks, tones, and
neurons. Complex systems generally cannot be designed top down by simply putting
parts together. Instead, almost all complex systems emerge over time, with various
components coadapting to form long-lasting and large-scale patterns.
Phase Transitions Radically Alter Structure and Function Under some con-
ditions a system can fundamentally change, not in its parts but in the pattern
of relationships between the parts. Such a system-wide structural rearrangement
changes flow pathways and therefore the functions that can be expressed. In fact,
the same system may behave so different on either side of a phase transition as to
be unrecognizable. The canonical example is of H2 O molecules changing their state
from solid ice to liquid water or from liquid water to vapor. As will be discussed
in Chap. 7, there are different kinds of transitions and in particular one type of
transition that seems to appear very often in complex systems.
Emergence and Non-linear Relationships Can Lead to Domino Effects As the
parts or functions of a system become more intertwined and dependent upon one
another, a small change or perturbation has the potential to have a system-level
impact. In the playing card example, an individual card cannot lift off of the table
because a single card is only stable when it lies flat. But two cards, which are both
in individually unstable positions, can counterbalance one another. Stable systems
can in fact be made out of unstable parts. By adding more counterbalanced cards,
a House of Cards can be constructed. In such a structure, moving one card has the
potential to disrupt the entire structure, potentially causing it to lose its emergent
three-dimensional nature. In fact House of Cards is often used to describe any
12 1 Introduction

A B C

C B

Fig. 1.4 The partially (looped) causal system (left) as in reality. A causal chain (right) as measured
in an experiment. If the arrow between C and A is not measured by the experiment (dotted line), it
would lead one to assume the linear causal chain in the right panel

system that is built upon a shaky foundation or has some critical vulnerability.
Another phrase often used to describe a similar idea is the domino effect, whereby
the falling of one domino can create a chain reaction that leads to all dominos
falling. Most complex systems, at least the ones that last for any time in the real
world, contain a degree of robustness to counteract the domino effect. Fail-safes,
checks and balances, and copies of functions protect against perturbation that might
compromise the integrity of the system.
Complex Systems Are Causal But Not in a Simplistic Sense The definition of
causality is that inputs (causes) must precede outputs (effects). This will be assumed
in discussing complex systems. Many fields, however, focus on causal chains—A
causes B causes C—as on the left side of Fig. 1.4. Chains are often discovered when
correlations are detected—when event A occurs, events B and C usually follow.
When there is a drop in income, behaviors associated with poverty often follow. It is
far from obvious, however, that the causes are direct or necessary. Some low-income
areas do not exhibit behaviors associated with poverty.
Aristotle understood that causality comes in a variety of flavors: parallel causality
(correlation without a causal relationship), acausality (causality does not exist—
essentially random processes), and partial causality (loops in causality). It is partial
causality, called circular causality by Hermann Haken (1927–), that plays an
important role in complex systems. For example, in the left panel of Fig. 1.4, A
causes B causes C causes A again. This kind of self-looping or self-reference will
be a theme through the text.
Homeostasis Maintains Multiple Parameters of a System Within Acceptable
Ranges If a particular variable of a system strays too far in any direction, there is
a restorative feedback loop that will nudge the system back on track. When applied
to many variables simultaneously, the system gains a sort of inertia that makes it
resistant to change. Such an ecosystem of variables is known as homeostasis and
allows a system to self-regulate and maintain its integrity against perturbations from
the outside. A great example is the systems of checks and balances that are built into
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