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BUSI 344 Project 1 for Studocu

Statistical And Computer Applications In Valuation (The University of British Columbia)

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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................3
INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................................3
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS & MARKET IDENTIFICATION ..........................................................................................................3
Identification of Appraisal Problem: ....................................................................................................................................3
Data Decisions: ....................................................................................................................................................................3
DATA EDITING & ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................4
DATA EXPLORATION ...............................................................................................................................................................4
Reduction .............................................................................................................................................................................4
Revelation ............................................................................................................................................................................6
Re-expression .......................................................................................................................................................................8
Residual .............................................................................................................................................................................10
VALUATION ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................................................................................10
RECOMMENDATION & CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................16
REGRESSION ANALYSIS .........................................................................................................................................................16

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The appraisal report establishes the price for each strata unit in a low-rise condominium complex University
Gate. University Gate has 32 units with construction starting immediately and projected occupancy is set to be
in a year s time. The market value of the unit was determined using the most comparable sales in the
neighbourhood.

INTRODUCTION
This valuation report is for a 32-unit low-rise residential strata project. As a Valuation Consultant, I am
shouldered with responsibility for providing guidance to the marketing specialists as to the pricing of each strata
unit in the competitive market as of the valuation date of October 18, 2023. The expert team financing,
government approvals and all building permits were already secured.

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS & MARKET IDENTIFICATION

University Gate a 32-unit low-rise strata residential project is in a mixed-used suburban neighbourhood with
proximity to community shopping and neighbourhood park. The projected demographics for the market are the
downsizing professionals, retired empty nesters or other higher net worth individuals or investors. It has
ABOVE AVERAGE quality of construction and finish as well as the location quality ranking of AVERAGE. All
necessary approvals and construction financing have been secured; construction will begin immediately with a
projected occupancy date of October 2024 (in a year s time). All 1.5 bedrooms has 1.5 bathrooms and other
units with more than 1.5 bedrooms has 2 full bathrooms.

Summary of Unit database:

Bedroom types Bathroom types # of Units
1.5 1.5 8
2 2 12
2.5 2 12

Identification of Appraisal Problem:

This appraisal report is for Real estate developers of University Gate. The report will determine the variables
and data have significant effect that on the values with a valuation date of September 30, 2023. The report will
make a recommendation as to the pricing of each strata meeting current market conditions.

Data Decisions:
Problem Identification
Array and Breadth, as determined Intended use Selling price, mortgage financing
by the client Value definition Market value
Dates October 18, 2023
Characteristics Low-rise Strata Residential project
Assumptions Typical
The scope of work: Data

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Array and Breadth, as Data sources Local Condo Sales

determined by the appraiser. Data frame
Dimensions of Similarity: Data set
Transaction Information set
Time
Illustrative set
Space
Utility
The scope of work: Analysis
Complexity, as determined by the Unit(s) of Sales price, Sale price per square footz
appraiser comparison
Statistical tools Frequency & Descriptive
Graphical tools Histogram, Boxplot & Scatterplot
The scope of work: Reporting
Details and Emphasis Intended use
Analytical scope
Client familiarity

DATA EDITING & ASSUMPTIONS

Some data is missing in the Condosales database, and I have made some assumptions to have a complete data set mostly
comparable to the subject property University Gate.

Unit 102 1715 Delta Avenue (CROSSROADS): - this sale is missing the property age and does not also indicate
if it is new build or old under the New Construction column. I would eliminate this sale because there is no other
sale at the CROSSROAD BUILDING that can be used as a reference for my assumption to fill in the age. This
will leave us with 75 comparable sales on the Condosales database.
Unit 308 880 Leslie Street (MAPLE VILLAGE): - the data is missing the floor number and I have determined
that the unit is located on the 3rd floor which corresponds to the 3 of (beginning) of the unit number.
The following units are missing the information about if they are either New or Old:
Unit 305 1660 Arima Avenue (10 years)
Unit 104, Unit 203 Unit 304, Unit 401, Unit 402 & Unit 403 1520 State Street (1 year)
Unit 101 1506 Eastside Avenue (1 year)
I have used the property age to determine their status; any property that is equal or less than 1 year is New (Y
Yes) and all others above 1 year are considered Old (N No).
Unit 101 1506 Eastside Avenue: - is missing the Carsharing information. I referenced the other sale at Pearl
Building, and I then assume that Unit 101 also has a Carsharing attribute.

DATA EXPLORATION
Reduction
The data needs to be summarized to a meaningful state where we can look at it and make sense of what we re
seeing. Descriptive Statistics will be the first step in simplifying the data, which is the beginning of the process

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to reduce the sales data. The output shows the measures of central tendency and dispersion for the sale price
variables and the sale price per square foot variables.

Sale price:- has a median of $335,895 and mean of $333,601 reflecting a symmetric distribution. The range of
$469,350 and standard deviation is $99,696 suggests a fairly widely dispersed data. The Coefficient of
Variation is 29.8% ($99,696.156/$333,601.83) confirming the wide dispersion in the data.
Sale price per square foot:- has a median of $375.96 and mean of $363.71 indicating the data is skewed to the
left. The skewness is also reflected by the range of $373.41 and the standard deviation is $96.05. The
Coefficient of Variation is at 26.4% which indicates that the data is fairly widely dispersed.

Statistics
Sale Price per

Sale Price Square Foot

N Valid 75 75

Missing 0 0

Mean 333601.83 363.7124

Std. Error of Mean 11511.921 11.09178

Median 335895.00 375.9600

Std. Deviation 99696.156 96.05760

Range 469350 373.51

Minimum 141750 184.01

Maximum 611100 557.52

Percentiles 25 255000.00 290.2600

50 335895.00 375.9600

75 400567.00 424.3500

Histogram
The sale price is slightly skewed to the right while that of the sale price per square foot is skewed to the left.
Both histogram for the sale price and sale price per square foot reflects large dispersion of data that will require
more reduction to streamline our sales comparable to arrive at the best possible sale price for the strata.
Will go further to the next step Revelation to better separate the signal from the noise.

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Revelation
Taking a close look at the data, using a boxplot to separate the rough elements from the smooth elements.
Boxplots are most useful for a continuous variable e.g sale price against discrete variable e.g new
construction .
The boxplots show an evidential impact of the new construction attribute on the sale price and the sale price per
square foot. There are some outliers on both circumstances which could be as a result of major renovation done
on both sale #44 and sale #24; and sale #33 could also be lacking in some features. The outliers will need to be
explored to ascertain the actual reason. Since there is a significant relationship between the new construction,
therefore I will eliminate the older buildings which will leave us with sales that are comparable in age to
University Gate.
Although we cannot have any comparable sale that is exactly like our subject property, we can clean up the
sales data enough to reflect the best comparable to our subject property. Since University Gate is a new built as
of 2023, we can remove all condo properties that are built over one year ago from our Condosales and will still
leave us with 46 sales which is good enough for our analysis.

Further in our Revelation with the use of the boxplot we will investigate the relationship of secure parking
attribute since it s consider analyzing other variables.

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We will first focus on the impact of the Secure Parking on sale since it is one of the important attributes of
University Gate as that is the only parking option. Based on the boxplot it has a huge influence on the sale price,
therefore we would filter out sales without secure parking. Also, we have some outliers and sale #43 appeared
in all the boxplot which will require an elimination from our sales data to have a more realistic comparable sale.
We will now have 36 sales comparable remaining for our analysis.

Further in our analysis, we look at the correlation between the unit size (one of key explanatory variable) and
sale price making use of Scatterplot, a highly useful tool for showing relationships between two quantitative
variables.

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The scatterplot for both the sale price & sale per square foot revealed a non-linearity with size. We would
expect the as the size increases sales per square feet also increase but it s showing an inverse relationship
confirmed by the very low R² meaning a negative correlation. Obviously, we will need to re-express the sales
per square foot variable by transforming the data hoping to see an improvement in the relationships.

Re-expression
Here we will identify the unit of comparison to establish the basis for our pricing by finding the Coefficient of
Variation (COV) using the Ratio tool under Descriptive Statistics. Generally, the total square foot of each strata
unit is a major determinant in the valuing/pricing of a strata unit. We are determining the Coefficient of
Variation (COV) for the 3 price variables that could influence our sale price. Based on our COV (mean-centred)
the sale price per square foot shows the least variation at 13.7%, indicating tighter data distribution and
therefore appears to be the best unit of comparison. Using the sale price per square foot in our analysis will
reduce the various unexplainable variation in our prices by over half when compared to the COV of the sale
price/bedroom at 25.4%

Ratio Statistics for Sale Price per Ratio Statistics for Sale Price / Ratio Statistics for Sale Price per
Square Foot / TestOne TestOne Bedroom / TestOne
N 36 N 36 N 36

Mean 433.487 Mean 393508.111 Mean 229767.620

Median 416.910 Median 394135.000 Median 211592.500

Minimum 344.370 Minimum 234000.000 Minimum 141697.500

Maximum 557.520 Maximum 566500.000 Maximum 378245.000

Std. Deviation 59.492 Std. Deviation 75315.134 Std. Deviation 58280.605

Range 213.150 Range 332500.000 Range 236547.500

Coefficient of Variation 13.7% Coefficient of Variation 19.1% Coefficient of Variation 25.4%

Secondly, we will use linear regression to explore the correlation between the sale and the corresponding units
of measurement sale price/sqft, sale price, sale price/bedroom, location quality rank, and the competitive set
rank.

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Correlations
Sale Price/ Sale Price/ Competitive Location

Sale Price Square Foot Bedroom Set Rank Quality Rank Size

Sale Price 1 .306 .112 .391* .557** .761**

Sale Price per Square Foot .306 1 .811** .315 .725** -.369*

Sale Price per Bedroom .112 .811** 1 .202 .646** -.384*

Competitive Set Rank .391* .315 .202 1 .497** .194

Location Quality Rank .557** .725** .646** .497** 1 .086

Size .761** -.369* -.384* .194 .086 1

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

The sale price shows the highest correlation with the sale price per square foot at 0.811 which agrees with the
conclusion of our Coefficient of Variation above also significant correlation between sale price and size at
0.761.

In further confirmation, we ran the linear regression to also see the value of our coefficient of determination
(R²) which is the square of the correlation coefficient.

Model Summary
Model Summary
R Adjusted Std. Error of
Adjusted Std. Error of
Model R Square R Square the Estimate
Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
a
1 .761 .579 .567 49565.643
1 .811a .658 .648 35.28040
a. Predictors: (Constant), Size
Predictors: (Constant), Sale Price per Bedroom

We have the scatterplot matrix scatter to have a visual examination of the fit line between sale price other
variables and sale price per square foot against other variables. We can see the clear correlation between sale
price and size as well as price per square foot and price per bedroom, with sale per square foot as the best unit
of comparison.

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Residual
In a mass appraisal for assessment, residuals are difference between the variation of the assessed value above
and below their observed selling prices for properties sold near the valuation date. In further attempt to fine tune
our data, we realize eliminating the one bedroom (since we don t have it at University Gate) from our dataset
will also remove other vital data that are more comparable to the subject with respect to the size. The size of the
units at University Gate ranges from 775 square feet to 1,020 square feet, therefore, we will reduce the dataset
by 100sqft below and 180sqft above (675sqft to 1200sqft) the range; we are left with 31 most comparable sales.

Coefficientsa

Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 126805.183 66970.515 1.893 .068

Size 296.920 70.462 .616 4.214 <.001

a. Dependent Variable: Sale Price

VALUATION ANALYSIS
In this valuation, we will isolate each variable, explore their relationships to determine and attribute value. We
would also identify necessary adjustments (upward or downward) for our proposed value based on the
attributable value of each variable.

Statistics
Sale Price per Square Foot
N Std.
Valid Missing Mean Median Deviation Minimum Maximum
31 0 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085 354.24 548.18

Based on our statistics above we can establish our base price point as $421/sqft setting our sale price per square
foot for the University Gate. The base price per square foot is also supported by our competitive set quality and
location quality statistics.

Competitive Set Quality

University Gate units are of age i.e 4.0 Competitive Set Rank. Our comparable sale ranges in
Competitive Set Rank from 2.0 to 4.0 with 0.5 intervals which represents Below Average, Slightly Below
Average, Average, Slightly Above Average & Above Average. Due to database adjustments, rankings of 2.0
and 2.5 were already eliminated leaving us with ranking from 3.0 to 4.0. The compare mean report indicates an
increase in sale price per square foot as the competitive rank increases. The median value for the above average
ranking is $427.58 and we have a total median of $421.39, which means an upward adjustment of $6.19. i.e

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$427.58 - $421.39 = $6.19

Report
Sale Price per Square Foot

Competitive Set Rank N Mean Median Std. Deviation

3.0 4 398.3750 398.7750 3.48018

3.5 7 416.0786 412.4300 32.20571

4.0 20 448.0020 427.5750 65.37633

Total 31 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085

Location Quality
University Gate has an average location quality and ranked 3.0. The scattered plot shows a Coefficient of
Determination of 0.56 indicating a positive relationship. The location categorized as slightly below average,
average and above average with respective rank as 2.5, 3.0 and 3.5. The median for the 3.0 ranking is $403.21
and a total median for the location ranking is $421.39, which will result in a downward adjustment of $18.19.
$403.20 - $421.39 = -$18.19

Report
Sale Price per Square Foot
Location Quality Rank N Mean Median Std. Deviation

2.5 12 394.9025 398.2950 24.26157

3.0 8 411.2512 403.2050 32.79420

3.5 11 494.2955 506.1100 47.15430

Total 31 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085

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Now that we have established our base price, we will review the relationship of other variables that can
influence the sale price per square foot.

Orientation
Since University Gate has three different views North view, South view, and West view, we then reduced our
dataset by eliminating the East view and now left with 28 sales. We have 16 sales that are north-facing and 6
sales each facing the south and west. The total median value further confirms our base price of $421 and we are
using the median value to make adjustment for the orientation attribute. The west view show a strong standard
deviation of 17%.

Adjustments:
North: upward of $14.67 ($436.06 -$421.39)
South: upward of $39.48 ($460.87 - $421.39)
West: downward of -$28.87 ($392.52 - $421.39)

Report

Sale Price per Square Foot

Orientation N Mean Median Std. Deviation

NORTH 16 449.8606 436.0750 60.39541

SOUTH 6 454.2800 460.8650 57.08548

WEST 6 396.6633 392.5150 17.08891

Total 28 439.4082 421.3950 56.60317

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Floor
Based on the compare mean report, it is obvious that the level of floor influences the price per square foot due
to increase in price as the floor increases. The higher the floor the better the view you get in each unit. Below
we see that the 4th floor has the highest mean/median.

Adjustments:
1st Floor: no adjustment will be made due to lack of enough sales for our analysis.
2nd Floor: downward of -$24.38 ($397.02 - $421.39)
3rd Floor: downward of -$19.83 ($401.56 - $421.39)
4th Floor: upward of $23.14 ($444.53 - $421.39)

Report
Sale Price per Square Foot
Floor N Mean Median Std. Deviation

1 1 375.9600 375.9600 .

2 10 430.3230 397.0150 63.67084

3 13 432.8123 401.5600 60.96868

4 7 451.4771 444.5300 44.64760

Total 31 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085

Bedroom
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Looking at the scatter plot and the mean, the bedroom size and the price per square foot are inversely related so
the smaller the number of bedrooms the higher the price per square foot. We would think it would be the other
way around based on the size, but this could be due to market demand for a smaller unit by professionals
seeking to downsize, retired empty nesters and high net worth individuals. These are buyers that are ready to
pay more for a small and cozy place that can easily be managed. Considering that the square footage of the
bedrooms at University Gate increased with the number of bedrooms, therefore an adjustment will not be
necessary. If we had needed a price adjustment, we would have used the values below:

Adjustments:
1.5 bedrooms: upward of $69.54 ($490.93 - $421.39)
2.0 bedrooms: downward of -$20.38 ($401.01 - $421.39)
2.5 bedrooms: downward of -$15.16 ($406.23 - $421.39)
Report
Sale Price per Square Foot

Bedrooms N Mean Median Std. Deviation

1.0 3 517.8900 515.8700 29.33221

1.5 3 484.3667 490.9300 36.99427

2.0 23 419.4291 401.0100 51.63034

2.5 2 406.2250 406.2250 21.46069

Total 31 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085

Bathroom
University Gate does not have 1 bathroom unit so we will not consider it in our analysis. Just as the bedroom analysis, the
bathroom and price per square foot are inversely related. The mean and median reduce as the number of bathrooms
increases despite the desirability that expected for a unit with multiple bathrooms for convenience and privacy, which
allows separate bathrooms for the guest and owner. Since the unit size at University Gate is commensurate with the
number of bathrooms in each unit, we will therefore not make an adjustment for the bathroom. Just for our knowledge, if
the situation is otherwise, we would have needed to make the following adjustments:

1.5 bathrooms: downward of -$17.18 ($404.21 - $421.39)

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2.0 bathrooms: downward of -$20.10 ($401.29 - $421.39)

Report
Sale Price per Square Foot
Bathrooms N Mean Median Std. Deviation

1.0 5 512.4480 515.8700 23.97699

1.5 2 404.2100 404.2100 57.02109

2.0 24 420.6429 401.2850 49.49068

Total 31 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085

Abutting Influence
The unit closer to the elevator has the highest median and mean which is because of the proximity to the entrance and exit
that is of course a great convenience for owners especially on the 4th floor. The unit with proximity to the stairs has a
lesser value compared to that of the elevator which could be because of the noise or extra steps needed while using the
stairs. We would ignore the lobby analysis since we don t have enough data.

Adjustments:
Elevator: upward of $26.41 ($447.80 - $421.39)
Stairwell: downward of -$20.38 ($401.01 - $421.39)

Report
Sale Price per Square Foot
Abutting Influence N Mean Median Std. Deviation

16 438.7863 421.3950 55.81359

ELEVATOR 7 444.7971 447.8000 76.47049

LOBBY 1 375.9600 375.9600 .

STAIRWELL 7 422.2814 401.0100 43.56314

Total 31 434.3900 421.3900 57.36085

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RECOMMENDATION & CONCLUSION

The proposed sale price for the University Gate is presented in Appendix A including the necessary price
adjustments for each unit. After isolating and carefully analyzing each variable, we conclude that neither the
number of bedrooms nor bathrooms had a significant effect on the sale price, therefore no adjustment was made
for this variable. Based on the various analyses completed, we recommend the base price of $421 per square
foot. The proposed sale price in ranges from approximately $326,000 and $385,500

1.5 bedrooms (two units per floor): ranging in sale price between $326,000 and $362,000, based on the only two
different sizes 775 sqft and 860 sqft. The proposed sale price is $326,221.11

Each floor has three 2.0 bedrooms ranging in sale price from approximately $353,500 and $395,700 with unit
sizes of 840 sqft, 920 sqft and 940 sqft. The proposed sale price is $353,612.52

Each floor has three 2.5 bedrooms ranging in sale price from approximately $410,500 and $429,400 with unit
sizes of 975 sqft, 995 sqft and 1,020 sqft. The proposed sale price is $410,449.19

REGRESSION ANALYSIS
The mean of the dependent variable sale price is $333,42.54 and the table shows the mean of three
independent variables size, floor, and bathrooms.

The Correlation Coefficient (R) is at approximately 0.67 accounting for the variability in sale price, which is a
little bit closer to being strong at 0.80. The Coefficient of Determination (R²) is at 0.443 which is the square root
of the correlation coefficient, reflecting the how much the sale price is accounted for by the regression line. The
Adjusted R² of 42% shows that the pricing can be explained by the three independent variables used for the
regression analysis while 58% can be explained by all other significant variables. The Standard Error of
Estimate (SEE) at 75,408.96 can be used to determine the Coefficient of Variation by dividing the SEE by the
mean of the dependent variable (sale price): 75,408.96 ÷ 333,421.54 = 22.6%. This is a little above the required
threshold of less than 10% for very tight fit and less than 20% for good fit. The COV at 22.6% is fairly good fit.

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Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N

Sale Price 333421.54 99041.756 76

Size 931.62 201.219 76

Floor 2.38 .966 76

Bathrooms 1.658 .4705 76

Correlations
Sale Price Size Floor Bathrooms

Pearson Correlation Sale Price 1.000 .502 .353 .577

Size .502 1.000 -.024 .773

Floor .353 -.024 1.000 .086

Bathrooms .577 .773 .086 1.000

Model Summary
Std. Error of the
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Estimate
a
1 .666 .443 .420 75408.963

a. Predictors: (Constant), Bathrooms, Floor, Size

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 326266377431.041 3 108755459143.680 19.125 <.001b

Residual 409428837165.841 72 5686511627.303

Total 735695214596.882 75

a. Dependent Variable: Sale Price

b. Predictors: (Constant), Bathrooms, Floor, Size

The F statistics give the measure of how good the fit is. Our F statistics gave us 19.125 (the larger the better)
which is greater than 4 indicating we have a good fit and with the significance is less than .001; this means
regression has a better representation of the data. The df (degree of freedom) indicates how many variables that
we included in the regression, here we have three significant independent variables size, floor and bathroom.
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients Collinearity Statistics

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Tolerance VIF

1 (Constant) 21990.133 47172.765 .466 .643

Size 105.342 68.877 .214 1.529 .131 .395 2.533

Floor 33400.715 9145.208 .326 3.652 <.001 .972 1.029

Bathrooms 80672.286 29554.408 .383 2.730 .008 .392 2.551

a. Dependent Variable: Sale Price

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T static should be outside ±1.6 indicating whether the variables are significant in the regression. The t statistics
for the size is 1.529, a few points short of the required limit, the floor and bathroom are above at 3.652 and
2.730 indicating a good significance of 95% confidence.
The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is expected to be less than 3.33. The values of our collinearity statistics are
less than 3.33 indicating none of the variables are accounting for the same thing, meaning we have a good
model for estimating the sale price of University Gate.
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Model Dimension Eigenvalue Condition Index (Constant) Size Floor Bathrooms

1 1 3.831 1.000 .00 .00 .01 .00

2 .125 5.546 .00 .02 .79 .03

3 .034 10.604 .60 .00 .14 .30

4 .011 18.738 .39 .98 .07 .66

a. Dependent Variable: Sale Price

Regression Equation:
Estimated Sale Price = $21,990.13
+ $105.34 X size
+ $33,400.72 X floor
+ $80,672.29 X bathroom
Example: using Unit 104
Estimated Sale Price = $21,990.13
+ $105.34 X 1,020
+ $33,400.72 X 1
+ $80,672.29 X 2
= $21,990.13 + $107,446.80 + $33,400.72 + $161,344.58
= $324,182.23

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