Confirmation Bias
(We’re Not as Rational as We Like to Think)
(1) Imagine if you will: You are talking with your friend Shaun about politics or any subject
on which you disagree. You give him proof that your position is correct and his position is
wrong. But Shaun isn’t having it. He ignores every piece of evidence that you offer or tries
to explain it away. The conversation ends with each of you more convinced that you are
correct and that the other person is wrong and too stubborn to see it. Who is at fault here?
(2) The answer, according to psychology, is that you both are. We humans like to think that
we are rational beings, but the truth is that we are frequently not very rational at all.
(3) The ways in which we are not rational tend to be pretty similar for most people; in
other words, people’s thoughts and behaviors are often irrational in predictable ways.
These tendencies are known as cognitive biases. Cognitive biases are systematic1 errors in
thinking and processing. These errors may lead us to perceive things in an unrealistic way,
which in turn may cause irrational decisions or behaviors.
(4) Both you and Shaun were influenced in your discussion by something called
confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias that leads us to cling to our
beliefs, even in the face of strong evidence that we are wrong. Confirmation bias explains
why it’s generally difficult for people to change their beliefs, even when they are proven
wrong by a mountain of evidence.
(5) What is the evidence that the confirmation bias is real? Study after study demonstrates
that confirmation bias is, in fact, very real. Here is an example of just one study:
(6) Researchers created two groups of university students, one that was in favor of the
death penalty and one that opposed it. Each group was presented with data from two
studies, one showing that the death penalty was effective in deterring2 crime, and the other
showing that it was not. (Both studies were made up, but students did not know that.)
(7) The students who were in favor of the death penalty found the study supporting their
view to be credible, while discounting the study that contradicted their view. The opposite
was true for the students who were opposed to the death penalty. Both groups of students
were then asked again about their beliefs on the death penalty and each group became
stronger in its belief. In other words, after reading “evidence” both supporting and
contradicting their beliefs, people became even more convinced that they were right.
(8) The takeaway is that both groups believed information that supported their beliefs
while conveniently ignoring information that contradicted their beliefs.
1 Systematic means happening according to a system, plan, or method (not happening randomly).
2 Deterring means discouraging. In this sentence, it means “discouraging people from committing crimes.”
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(9) This study and the many others that have been conducted to test the confirmation bias
demonstrates a very tricky thing about the bias: information, evidence, and facts don’t
work very well to convince people to change an incorrect belief.
(10) Perhaps you’re thinking, “who cares if we cling to our beliefs? Aren’t these just
matters of opinion anyway?” First of all, beliefs can sometimes be provably3 wrong,
because they are matters of fact and not opinion. For example, there is overwhelming
scientific evidence that our planet is shaped like a sphere and is not flat. But there are
people who still believe that the Earth is flat; they just ignore (or don’t understand) the
evidence to the contrary.
(11) So what’s the harm in people believing that the Earth is flat? Well, incorrect beliefs
may lead people to behave in ways that are dangerous to themselves or others. For
example, some people believe that they are able to drive safely after drinking alcohol. This
belief is demonstrably4 incorrect, as study after study has confirmed that drinking impairs5
people’s driving abilities. Yet if people continue to believe that they are “good drunk
drivers,” they will endanger6 themselves and others by driving under the influence of
alcohol.
(12) False beliefs can also spread like wildfire across society, making it difficult for people
to know or understand what is true and sometimes even ending in tragedy. There are
countless examples throughout human history in which the spread of false information has
caused violence and chaos.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
—unknown, attributed to Mark Twain
(13) Think for a minute about the quote above. Another way of putting it is that feeling
sure about something that actually isn’t true can actually cause more problems than simply
not knowing. Do you agree?
(14) By now you might be wondering, if we know about confirmation bias, can we
overcome it? This is still being studied, so for now the answer is maybe. There are a few
things we can do that may help us reduce our own confirmation bias.
1. Actively seek out information that contradicts part or all of our opinion.
3 Provably means able to be proven.
4 Demonstrably means able to be demonstrated or proven.
5 Impair means to weaken, diminish, or harm. In this sentence it means “diminish people’s driving skills.”
6 Endanger means to put someone at risk or in danger.
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Remember that, due to the confirmation bias, we tend to look only for evidence to
confirm our beliefs, which of course makes us more convinced that we are right. To
overcome this, we have to consciously seek out contradictory evidence.
2. Use a system to evaluate all information and evidence.
When we process information, regardless of whether it supports or goes against our
belief, we should always evaluate the following:
a. What or who is the source? Can the source be considered an expert on the topic?
Is there any evidence to suggest the source is actually biased? (And not just that
they don’t agree with me!)
b. Does the source express a point of view? Is evidence presented? If so, is that
evidence based on empirical data? (statistics, results from a peer-reviewed
study, etc.)
c. Where or how was the data or evidence obtained? (a survey, a study, a poll, etc.)
d. Does the source present or interpret the data fairly? (Or, on the other hand, does
the source go too far, jump to conclusions, make assumptions not supported by
the data, etc.?)
3. Focus on finding out the truth over needing to be right.
It is human nature to want to be right, but wanting to be right doesn’t help us make
better, more logical decisions. We have to make a conscious decision that we’re
more interested in knowing the truth than in being right.
4. Accept that we may not know enough to form a well-informed opinion. Circle back
to Step 1.
It’s easy to think we know more than we actually do, which can make us feel even
more convinced about our positions. We should accept that we may not know
everything there is to know about the topic and actively seek out new information,
especially contradictory information, to further inform our beliefs (Step 1).
References:
Kolbert, E. (February 19, 2017). Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds. The New Yorker.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-
minds.
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Confirmation Bias Reading Study Guide
1. Can you relate to the scenario described in the Paragraph 1? Describe a similar
experience.
2. What is cognitive bias? What does cognitive bias lead to?
3. What is confirmation bias? Give a real-life example.
4. Describe the study discussed in Paragraphs 6 and 7.
5. What happened when people in the study received (false) information that supported
their views? What about when they received (false) information that contradicted their
views?
6. What is the takeaway from the study?
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7. What is the “very tricky thing” about confirmation bias?
8. Are beliefs always just matters of opinion? When do incorrect beliefs become a
problem?
9. When can false beliefs actually be harmful?
10. Give an example of an incorrect belief that you’ve heard or read about. Is it harmful?
11. Explain the meaning of the Mark Twain quote.
12. What are the four ways that the author suggests we might be able to reduce the impact
of confirmation bias on our thinking and decision-making? Briefly describe each one.
