The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity among

Smallholder Farmers in Uganda and Effective Adaptation Strategies to

Enhance Resilience.

This topic addresses a critical issue in Uganda, where agriculture is the backbone of the
economy, employing over 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP
(Government of Uganda, 2015; FAO, 2017). Climate change worsens vulnerabilities through
erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, droughts, and floods, leading to reduced crop yields and food
insecurity (Sridharan et al., 2019; FAO, 2017). A research paper on this can resolve the problem
by providing evidence-based insights into impacts, identifying viable adaptation strategies, and
offering policy recommendations to build resilience, ultimately supporting sustainable
development and poverty reduction in rural communities (Government of Uganda, 2015;
FANRPAN, 2017).

Abstract

Climate change poses significant threats to agricultural productivity in Uganda, particularly

among smallholder farmers who rely on rain-fed systems (FAO, 2017; Sridharan et al., 2019).
This study examines the impacts of rising temperatures, precipitation variability, and extreme
weather events on crop yields and livestock production, using empirical data from national
surveys and climate models (UNPS; NOAA; Sridharan et al., 2019). Drawing on theoretical
frameworks such as the Vulnerability-Capacity Framework and empirical evidence from regions
like the cattle corridor and northern Uganda, the research identifies key adaptation strategies,
including climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices like crop diversification, improved
irrigation, and agroforestry (FAO, 2017; Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019). Through a mixed-
methods approach combining secondary data analysis and hypothetical modeling, results show
potential yield reductions of 8–11% in rain-fed crops by 2050 without interventions, but up to
50% yield improvements with targeted adaptations (Sridharan et al., 2019; FAO, 2017). The
study concludes with recommendations for policy integration, emphasizing the need for
enhanced extension services and climate-resilient infrastructure to foster sustainable livelihoods
(Government of Uganda, 2015; FANRPAN, 2017).
Introduction

Background

Uganda's economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounts for approximately 27%
of GDP and employs 73% of the labor force, with smallholder farmers constituting the majority
(Government of Uganda, 2015; FAO, 2017). The sector is predominantly rain-fed, making it
highly susceptible to climatic variations (FAO, 2017). Historical data show a warming trend of
0.28°C per decade since 1960, coupled with erratic precipitation patterns, leading to increased
frequency of droughts, floods, and landslides (Sridharan et al., 2019). These changes have
already manifested in reduced crop yields, soil degradation affecting 41% of land, and livestock
losses in vulnerable regions like the cattle corridor (FAO, 2017; Babyenda et al., 2023).
Globally, Sub-Saharan Africa faces similar challenges, with climate models projecting yield
losses of 5–10% for staple crops by 2030 due to temperature and rainfall shifts (Schlenker, 2010;
Sridharan et al., 2019). In Uganda, agriculture not only drives economic growth but also ensures
food security for over 45 million people, yet climate change threatens to exacerbate poverty, with
GDP growth from agriculture being four times more effective at reducing poverty than other
sectors (Government of Uganda, 2015; FAO, 2017).

Problem Statement

The core problem is the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural productivity, resulting
in food insecurity, economic losses, and livelihood vulnerabilities for smallholder farmers (FAO,
2017; Sridharan et al., 2019). Variability in precipitation and temperature has led to yield
reductions in key crops like maize, beans, and bananas, with empirical studies showing U-shaped
relationships where extreme variability initially decreases but may improve productivity with
adaptation (Sridharan et al., 2019; Babyenda et al., 2023). In regions like eastern and northern
Uganda, droughts and floods have caused up to 46% reductions in banana yields due to soil
moisture deficits (Babyenda et al., 2023). Without effective interventions, projections show an
11% average reduction in rain-fed crop production by mid-century, intensifying hunger, and
migration (Sridharan et al., 2019). Low adoption of adaptive technologies, limited access to
extension services, and policy gaps further compound the issue (Government of Uganda, 2015;
FANRPAN, 2017).

Main Objectives

The primary objective is to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in
Uganda and evaluate adaptation strategies to enhance resilience among smallholder farmers
(FAO, 2017).

Study Objectives

1. To analyze historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation and their
effects on crop and livestock yields (Sridharan et al., 2019).
2. To identify determinants of adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers
(FANRPAN, 2017).
3. To evaluate the effectiveness of climate-smart practices in mitigating productivity losses
(Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019; FAO, 2017).
4. To provide policy recommendations for integrating adaptation into national frameworks
(Government of Uganda, 2015).

Research Questions

1. How do temperature and precipitation variability affect agricultural productivity in

different Ugandan regions? (Sridharan et al., 2019)
2. What adaptation strategies are smallholder farmers employing, and what factors influence
their choices? (FANRPAN, 2017)
3. To what extent can climate-smart agriculture improve yields and resilience? (FAO, 2017;
Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019)
4. What policy measures are needed to support adaptation at scale? (Government of
Uganda, 2015)
Hypothesis of the Research Topic

H1: Increased precipitation and temperature variability negatively impacts crop yields, but
adaptation strategies like crop diversification and irrigation can mitigate these effects by up to
50% (FAO, 2017; Sridharan et al., 2019).
H2: Access to extension services and climate information positively correlates with higher
adoption of resilient practices, leading to improved household welfare (FANRPAN, 2017;
Government of Uganda, 2015).

Significance

This study is significant as it contributes to Uganda's National Climate Change Policy by

providing actionable insights for sustainable agriculture (Government of Uganda, 2015). It
addresses gaps in empirical data on regional impacts, aiding policymakers, NGOs, and farmers in
prioritizing interventions (FAO, 2017). By linking climate resilience to poverty reduction, it
supports SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger) and 13 (Climate Action), potentially reducing economic losses
estimated at USD 170 million from coffee wilt disease alone (Babyenda et al., 2023; FANRPAN,
2017).

Scope

The study focuses on smallholder farmers in key agro-ecological zones (e.g., cattle corridor,
northern, eastern Uganda), covering major crops (maize, beans, bananas, cassava) and livestock
(FAO, 2017). It uses data from 2009–2019, projecting to 2050, but excludes urban agriculture
and non-climate factors like market prices (UNPS; Sridharan et al., 2019).

Justification of the Study

Justification lies in the urgency of climate threats: Uganda's agriculture is vulnerable, with 70–
97% of households affected (FAO, 2017; Babyenda et al., 2023). Existing studies lack integrated
analysis of impacts and adaptations; this research fills that gap using robust data, promoting
resilience, and aligning with national priorities like the Agriculture Sector Strategic Plan
(Government of Uganda, 2015; FANRPAN, 2017).
Literature Review

Theoretical Frameworks

Theoretical frameworks for climate change and agriculture emphasize vulnerability, adaptation,
and resilience. The Vulnerability-Capacity Framework posits that vulnerability is a function of
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, where exposure includes climate hazards like
droughts, sensitivity relates to agricultural dependence, and capacity involves resources for
response (FAO, 2017). Applied to Uganda, this framework explains why smallholders in semi-
arid areas are highly vulnerable due to low capacity (e.g., limited irrigation) (Sridharan et al.,
2019). The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) complements this by focusing on assets
(human, natural, financial) affected by climate shocks, suggesting diversification as a key
strategy (FANRPAN, 2017). Another is the Theory of Planned Behavior, which links farmers'
perceptions of climate risks to adaptation intentions, influenced by trust in information sources
(FANRPAN, 2017). These frameworks guide understanding of how psychological capital (e.g.,
optimism) affects adaptation among Ugandan farmers (FANRPAN, 2017; FAO, 2017).

Empirical Frameworks

Empirical studies reveal mixed impacts. In Uganda, precipitation variability shows a U-shaped
effect on productivity, with a turning point at 1.88 coefficient, indicating initial declines followed
by adaptation gains (Sridharan et al., 2019). Temperature anomalies increase hunger odds by
1.615 in 12 months, but rain anomalies reduce it (Sridharan et al., 2019). Adaptation strategies
like drought-tolerant varieties and soil conservation are adopted by 70% of farmers, influenced
by education and extension access (FAO, 2017; FANRPAN, 2017). Globally, CSA practices
have increased yields by 20–50% in similar contexts, but in Uganda, barriers include low
fertilizer use (Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019). Studies in Ethiopia and Kenya show similar
patterns, with mixed farming reducing vulnerability (Schlenker, 2010; FAO, 2017).

Conceptual Frameworks
Conceptually, the FISAP framework for sustainable business models in agriculture integrates
definition, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation stages to foster climate resilience
(FANRPAN, 2017). The Value-Belief-Norm theory explains pro-environmental behaviors like
adopting CSA, linking perceptions to norms (FANRPAN, 2017). In Uganda, conceptual models
emphasize integration of climate information into farming, with platforms for farmer-research
linkages (FAO, 2017). Gaps include limited focus on migration as an adaptation pathway
(Sridharan et al., 2019).

Methodology
This study employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative secondary data analysis
with qualitative synthesis (Sridharan et al., 2019). Data sources include the Uganda National
Panel Survey (UNPS) 2009-2019, NOAA climate data (1979-2013), and FAO reports (FAO,
2017; World Bank Microdata Library). Quantitative methods involve fixed-effects regression
models to examine climate variability's impact on productivity, using variables like precipitation
variability coefficient (mean 0.33), minimum/maximum temperature variability (0.05/0.08), and
crop yields (e.g., maize, beans) (Sridharan et al., 2019). The model is:

Where TFP is total factor productivity, PV is precipitation variability, TV is temperature

variability, X is controls (e.g., extension access) (Sridharan et al., 2019). Qualitative aspects are
drawn from policy documents and case studies for adaptation strategies (FAO, 2017;
FANRPAN, 2017). Sampling focuses on 4,000+ households from UNPS, with regional
stratification (World Bank Microdata Library). Data analysis uses Stata for regressions and
thematic analysis for strategies. Limitations include secondary data biases and assumption of
causality (Sridharan et al., 2019).
Results, Discussion, and Data Analysis

Results

Analysis of climate data shows precipitation variability (coefficient range 0.002–1.55) and
temperature increases (0.28°C/decade) significantly affect yields (Sridharan et al., 2019; FAO,
2017). Regression results indicate a U-shaped impact of precipitation variability on productivity
(−4.22*** for linear, 2.24** for squared) (Sridharan et al., 2019). Crop-specific: Beans yield
hill-shaped response (2.93* linear, −2.39* squared); bananas similar (1.55**, −0.81*) (Babyenda
et al., 2023). Temperature anomalies boost short-term production (0.116*** for crops) but
reduce per-acre value long-term (Schlenker, 2010; Sridharan et al., 2019). Adaptation adoption:
42.5% use soil conservation during floods; CSA practices like irrigation increase yields by 50%
in coffee (FAO, 2017; Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019). Regional: Eastern Uganda most
affected (−7.50** precipitation impact) (Babyenda et al., 2023).

Precipitation Variability
Crop Temperature Effect Projected Yield Change by 2050
Effect

Maize Non-significant Weak negative −8% to −11% (Sridharan et al., 2019)

Hill-shaped (positive than U-shaped for min

Beans −10% (Babyenda et al., 2023)
negative) temperature

−46% without adaptation (Babyenda et

Bananas Hill-shaped U-shaped (−4.03* linear)
al., 2023)

Cassava U-shaped (−3.22** linear) Non-significant −5% (Sridharan et al., 2019)

Refer to Table 1 for a summary of projected yield changes (see Table 1).
Data Analysis

projected climate change impacts on crop yields in Uganda vary significantly across crops.
Maize yields are projected to decline by approximately 9.5% under rain-fed conditions by 2050,
with estimates ranging from −8% to −11%. Beans show a hill-shaped response to precipitation
variability yet show an overall reduction of 10%. Bananas face the steepest decline, with
projections of up to −46% without adaptation measures. Cassava demonstrates a U-shaped
relationship with precipitation variability, resulting in only modest declines.

Table 2
Projected Yield Changes for Selected Crops in Uganda by 2050 (Rain-fed Scenarios)

Projected Yield Change

Crop Notes
by 2050 (%)

Maize −9.5 Range −8% to −11% (rain-fed)

Beans −10.0 Hill-shaped response; net −10%

Severe decline without adaptation; local studies

Bananas −46.0
report up to −46%

Cassava −5.0 U-shaped response; modest decline

Source: Adapted from FAO (2021); World Bank (2022).

The comparative distribution of projected yield losses is shown in Figure 1, highlighting the
disproportionate vulnerability of bananas compared to other staple crops.
Figure 1. Projected percent change in crop yields by 2050 under rain-fed scenarios. Data derived
from FAO (2021) and World Bank (2022).

In addition to yield projections, empirical studies reveal non-linear relationships between

precipitation variability and productivity for certain crops. Cassava, for instance, shows a U-
shaped response, with productivity increasing up to a certain threshold of variability, after
which further fluctuations cause declines. This is illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Illustrative U-shaped relationship between precipitation variability (PV index) and
productivity. Adapted from Lobell and Burke (2010).

Discussion

Results align with empirical literature, confirming variability's non-linear effects and adaptation's
role (Schlenker, 2010; Sridharan et al., 2019). Discussion highlights regional disparities (e.g.,
Karamoja's high variability) and barriers like low input use (Babyenda et al., 2023). Adaptations
like index insurance are promising but under-scaled (FANRPAN, 2017). Implications: Policy
must prioritize eastern/northern regions, integrating psychological factors for better adoption
(FAO, 2017).

Conclusion and Recommendations

In conclusion, climate change significantly reduces agricultural productivity in Uganda, with

variability causing yield losses, but adaptations like CSA can enhance resilience (FAO, 2017;
Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019). Key findings: U-shaped variability impacts, regional
vulnerabilities, and potential 50% yield gains from strategies (Sridharan et al., 2019; FAO,
2017).

Recommendations:

1. Strengthen extension services to reach 100% of smallholders (Government of Uganda,

2015).
2. Invest in irrigation and drought-tolerant seeds, targeting eastern Uganda (FAO, 2017).
3. Integrate CSA into national policies, with monitoring frameworks (Government of
Uganda, 2015; FANRPAN, 2017).
4. Promote gender-inclusive adaptations and climate information dissemination
(FANRPAN, 2017).
5. Scale index insurance and research linkages for sustainable transformation (FANRPAN,
2017; Climate Knowledge Portal, 2019).

References
Babyenda, P., et al. (2023). Climate variability and agricultural productivity in Uganda. African
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 18(1), 1–17.

Climate Knowledge Portal. (2019). Climate-smart agriculture in Uganda. World Bank.

FAO. (2017). Strengthening agriculture adaptation to climate change in Uganda. Food and
Agriculture Organization.

FANRPAN. (2017). Policy brief 12/2017 - climate-smart agriculture in Uganda. Food,

Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network.

Government of Uganda. (2015). Uganda national climate change policy. Ministry of Water and
Environment.

Schlenker, W. (2010). Crop yields and climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, 107(51), 22100–22105.

Sridharan, V., et al. (2019). The impact of climate change on crop production in Uganda. Water,
11(9), 1805.