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The Future of
Global Affairs
Managing Discontinuity, Disruption
and Destruction
Edited by
Christopher Ankersen · Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Foreword by Helen Clark and Vera Jelinek
 The Future of Global Affairs

“The Future of Global Affairs is an exciting and balanced contribution to the

debate about the potential trajectory of a world in flux. Tinged more with
concern than utopian optimism, this volume captures a panoramic view of our
cacophonous and disorderly world that is on the verge of disequilibrium and
potential destruction unless key political actors, institutions, and processes can
find a way to adapt global affairs to an increasingly plurilateral and intermestic
era. A must-read for serious IR scholars; written in a way that is understandable
to the lay person.”
—W. Andy Knight, Ph.D., FRSC, University of Alberta

“What is the future of the state? Is multilateralism overrated as an answer to

the diverse ills plaguing the global system? How might climate change disrupt
geopolitical alliances that have been essential to peace in different regions of
the world? Inspired by these and other urgent questions, this simultaneously
illuminating and profoundly unsettling book traces the contours of the ascendant
geopolitics, illustrating how one class of events can have contrasting resonances
and implications around the world. Each chapter explores a different facet of
global affairs, offering perspectives that, though not rosy, serious students of
world politics will do well to take to heart.”
—Ebenezer Obadare, Professor of Sociology, University of Kansas
 Christopher Ankersen ·
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Editors

The Future of Global

Affairs
Managing Discontinuity, Disruption and
Destruction
Editors
Christopher Ankersen Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Center for Global Affairs Center for Global Affairs
School of Professional Studies School of Professional Studies
New York University New York University
New York, NY, USA New York, NY, USA

ISBN 978-3-030-56469-8 ISBN 978-3-030-56470-4 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56470-4

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.

Cover image: Felix Lipov/Alamy Stock Photo

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
 Foreword by Helen Clark

The United Nations (UN) was founded 75 years ago to advance peace,
human rights, and development—a mandate as relevant today as it was
in 1945. Its most remarkable year in recent times in achieving global
consensus on a better future for all was 2015. That year, agreement
was reached on Agenda 2030 and its seventeen Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals (SDGs), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduc-
tion, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development,
and the Paris Climate Agreement. The New Urban Agenda was agreed
the following year at the UN’s Habitat III Conference on Housing and
Sustainable Development. Taken together, these constitute an ambitious
agenda, which if implemented in full would transform the prospects of
the world’s peoples and ecosystems.
This ambition is consistent with the UN’s impressive track record of
agenda-setting—the UN was credited by the UN Intellectual History
Project for having been an incubator of new and powerful ideas which
have shaped norms, policies, and practice in many areas. It has been a
platform for the negotiation of a substantial body of international law,
and it has enabled much practical development, and humanitarian work.
In earlier years, it played a significant role in supporting decolonization,
which in turn led to the expansion of its membership from the 51 member
states present at its founding to the 193 of today.
That is not to say that the UN’s record has been without blemish.
The 1994 genocide in Rwanda and the 1995 massacre in Srebrenica—also

v
vi FOREWORD BY HELEN CLARK

called a genocide by many—where peacekeepers were present and did not

act to save lives, will always be a stain on its reputation. Ongoing issues of
sexual and gender-based violence by peacekeepers and in individual UN
organizations are a disgrace. Despite those shortcomings, however, we
should not lose sight of the fact that the reason for the UN’s existence
is to contribute to global public goods, and these days, in doing so, to
contribute to the protection and management of the global commons.
Yet this premier institution in the multilateral system is now under
significant strain. Our world is preoccupied by a wide range of conflicts,
other geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, environmental crises, and
disease outbreaks. In zones of conflict, there continue to be loss of life,
poor services, and little hope for many. Displacement crises are protracted,
and the numbers of those forcibly displaced are at record levels—now over
seventy million. Essential humanitarian relief is a first call on official devel-
opment assistance, leaving less for the poor in low income but more stable
countries. And, on reflection, the major international agreements reached
in 2015 could not have been concluded today; such is the impact of polit-
ical change since then in key capitals from Washington DC to Brasilia and
beyond.
The current situation makes reaching the SDG targets a stretch. In
2030, we could well see some six percent of the world’s population still
living in extreme poverty—far from the target of eradication. The absolute
numbers of hungry people in the world are increasing—according to the
World Food Programme, the total stands at around 820 million, or one in
every nine people on earth. UNESCO reports suggest that one in every
six children will not be able to achieve the SDG target of having twelve
years education by 2030.
While the SDGs were always an aspirational agenda, to fall so short
of their targets not only makes a mockery of them, but also calls into
question the seriousness of the member states which committed to them
and the credibility of the international system. The same is true of the
woeful underperformance on implementation of the Paris Climate Agree-
ment, which the 2019 Madrid climate change Conference of Parties made
plain. If solemnly reached agreements are followed by little action, what,
many will ask, is their point?
For a variety of reasons, the UN has also found it hard to address
new waves of conflict effectively. Its conventional response of dispatching
peacekeepers where there is a peace to be kept is often inadequate—peace-
keepers may be sent where there is no peace to keep, and they may be
 FOREWORD BY HELEN CLARK vii

neither equipped to act nor have a mandate to act to stem the violence
which greets them. In a number of the currently raging conflicts, there is
no mandate for UN peacekeepers to be present at all. All too often these
conflicts are in effect proxy wars, with the powerful patrons who back
warring parties having little interest in international mediation.
Additionally, the UN is largely a bystander as key parts of the nuclear
weapons control architecture are being dismantled. An egregious example
is that of the Iran nuclear deal which was endorsed by the UN Security
Council. The US withdrawal from the agreement was a direct challenge
to the authority of the Council which all UN member states are bound
to uphold. The expiry of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
between the United States and what is now Russia is a major threat to
peace and security, but one which the multilateral system in its current
state is not equipped to address.
Challenging as the outlook for the multilateral system currently is,
however, it would be wrong to walk away from it. Its institutions need to
be maintained for times when geopolitics are more conducive to making
them effective. Disengaging only contributes to their decline in rele-
vance. Meanwhile thought should be given to how to reinvigorate the
system. Not all parts of it are useful. Some need a fundamental over-
haul and reorientation. Some entities barely continue on life support, and
would be better absorbed or eliminated altogether. Others need radical
improvements to their efficiency and effectiveness.
To date, neither the UN nor the Bretton Woods Institutions have been
able to address the nature of their outdated governance systems compre-
hensively. For example, the UN Security Council configuration with its
five permanent members designated in 1945 does not remotely reflect
today’s geopolitics. When the World Bank and the International Mone-
tary Fund changed their leaders last year, there was no serious questioning
of where the new heads would come from. They were preordained to be
an American and a European, respectively. Obsolete governance structures
undermine the credibility of these institutions.
The international system could strive to become more inclusive by
embracing a wider range of actors, beyond member states. A pioneer
in that was the International Labour Organization. From its inception
in 1919, it has had tripartite membership consisting of governments,
unions, and employer organizations. Other non-UN bodies, such as the
Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, GAVI—the Vaccine
viii FOREWORD BY HELEN CLARK

Alliance, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative have repre-

sentation from governments, civil society, and the private sector on their
governing bodies.
It is a challenge for the UN and its core institutions to reform their
governance—they remain very much member state-driven and divisions
between those states run deep. Embracing a more inclusive approach to
the governance of the system would be useful in getting broader engage-
ment in global affairs and thereby securing our common future. Our
world faces profound challenges with which no single country can deal
effectively on its own. Shared problems need effective global governance
to address them. The negotiators of the UN Charter in 1945 understood
that. It is incumbent on the leaders of today in this 75th anniversary year
of the UN’s founding to show the same vision in renewing a multilat-
eral system which can be representative and effective in the twenty-first
century.
From the bedrock of evidence-based policy to the wisdom of gender
equality to the looming climate tragedy, this volume’s approach to the
issues facing the world serves as a useful primer. It stresses the risks and
opportunities posed by disruption and discontinuity, and highlights the
interconnectectedness and urgency required if we are to get this right and
avoid the destruction of the global system.

Christchurch, New Zealand Helen Clark

March 2020
 Foreword by Vera Jelinek

The idea for a Center for Global Affairs at New York University had been
brewing in my head for many years prior to its establishment in 2004, but
gained momentum with the seismic and rapid shifts occurring in the field.
With the end of the Cold War, the events of 9/11, and the US invasion
of Iraq in 2003, it became increasingly evident that “international affairs”
was no longer an adequate rubric to describe, understand, and cope with
the rapidly changing landscape. The number of players, even in terms
of traditional states, were expanding exponentially from the 51 original
United Nations members to 193; Non-Governmental Organizations had
evolved to become contenders in shaping and influencing policies; the
private sector and international organizations were setting new norms.
And that speaks only to the actors shaping international relations.
The impact of horizontal forces that were either ignored or previ-
ously played a minor role was also coming to the forefront. The role of
gender, peacebuilding, refugee flows, climate change, energy, terrorism,
transnational security, the internet and communication, among many
other factors, begged for closer scrutiny and study. New trends became
evident: nonalignment lost its salience as the world moved first to unipo-
larity and then multipolarity, multilateralism flourished and gained an edge
over bilateral arrangements, regional organizations expanded, and global-
ization trumped borders and promoted a freer movement of capital, ideas,
people, and goods.

ix
x FOREWORD BY VERA JELINEK

Despite criticism from traditionalists, by 2004, we felt the need to

create a curriculum, which was based on the conviction that the world’s
challenges could not be understood and resolved from the standpoint
only of relations among states but had to take into account the role of
non-state actors, regional organizations, corporations, urban and rural
communities, as well as non-traditional diplomatic channels. Time has
proved that we were justified in launching a graduate program in Global
Affairs.
Fifteen years on, there is a backlash to such a cosmopolitan—some
might say “globalist”—point of view. Ethnic slurs, nationalist ideolo-
gies, demagoguery, exclusionary rather than inclusive politics, polarization
within and between states, barriers to the free flow of trade and other
“isms” reminiscent of the 1930s, not just in Europe and Asia but also
here in the United States, have reared their ugly heads.
That, however, does not mean the end of the liberal era. I am an
unreserved optimist: what we are seeing now is nothing more than a
blip. Eventually, hopefully sooner than later, it will become clear that the
overwhelming challenges that the world faces can only be tackled with a
unified approach. We here at the Center for Global Affairs, and by that I
mean an amazing faculty, many of whom have contributed to this book,
will continue to do battle to help the next generation understand, cope
with, and resolve global problems. We will continue to do so from the
transdisciplinary, flexible, and constantly evolving perspectives that lie at
the heart of the Center’s founding and continue to shape its curriculum
and mission to this day.
No greater proof than the contents of this gem of a volume is needed to
attest to the tumultuous changes in global affairs and the Center’s pivotal
role in the shaping of practice and the study of Global Affairs.

Vera Jelinek
Divisional Dean
Center for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies
New York University
New York, USA
 Acknowledgments

The genesis of this edited book project was to celebrate the fifteenth
anniversary of the Center for Global Affairs (CGA), and be a festschrift
to honor the vision of its founder, Dean Vera Jelinek. CGA’s faculty
warmly embraced the idea and also provided ambitious and encouraging
inputs. Based on that, the initial conception further evolved into a volume
that would offer a glimpse into the future of global affairs across the
concentrations and specializations that the Center offers.
It is of course, one thing to plan an edited volume but quite another
to bring it to fruition; and we are deeply grateful and indebted for the
support and contributions of the many individuals who made it possible.
First, under the tutelage of Dr. Jelinek, CGA has become a home for
global scholars and citizen to hone their skills, and apply lessons from
the classroom into the policy world. Her enthusiastic support helped to
get this project off the ground. Second, our heartfelt thanks to faculty
colleagues who carved out time from their busy teaching, researching,
and engagement schedules to contribute insightful chapters.
The project came alive at workshop on September 13, 2019, which
allowed for a critical discussion of the overall theme of the book, as
well as critique of the individual chapters. It is no exaggeration to claim
that without the frank feedback of the discussants from the academic
and policy worlds, this book would be a shadow of what it is now.
For their constructive inputs and comments we are very grateful to
Franz Baumann, Visiting Research Professor, Program in International

xi
xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Relations, New York University; Stacey Connaughton, Director, The

Purdue Peace Project, Purdue University; Noa Gafni, Executive Director,
Rutgers Institute for Corporate Social Innovation; Edward Goldberg,
Adjunct Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University;
Karen Guttieri, Associate Professor of Cyberwarfare Studies, USAF Cyber
College; David M. Malone, Rector, United Nations University; Heidi
Rosbe, Project Officer, International Rescue Committee; Sarah Taylor,
Senior Fellow, International Peace Institute; and Andras Vamos-Goldman,
Adjunct Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University.
The road to publication was made all the more smoother by the
unwavering support and commitment of Dr. Anca Pusca, the dynamic
Executive Editor for International Relations and Security Studies at
Palgrave. Her suggestions, as well as the helpful comments and feed-
back of the anonymous reviewers, were invaluable and helped improve
the final product immeasurably. Additionally, Arun Kumar Anbalagan
and Azarudeen Ahamed Sheriff provided deft editorial and production
support with grace and aplomb. We are grateful for their quest for perfec-
tion. Of course, any errors or lapses that remain are our responsibility
alone.
Finally, we would like to dedicate this volume to CGA’s students, staff,
and faculty—past, present, and future—who have collectively put this
Center on the global affairs map. Their continuing involvement will be
vital to the discipline of Global Affairs in these interesting times.

Christopher Ankersen
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
 Contents

1 Introduction: Navigating Unchartered Waters 1

Christopher Ankersen and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu

2 The Turbulent Future of International Relations 23

Michael F. Oppenheimer

3 A Kaleidoscopic Future: The State and Assemblages

in Global Affairs 49
Christopher Ankersen

4 The Empiricism Strikes Back: Strategies for Avoiding

a Post-truth World 71
John V. Kane

5 Toward an Enlightened Form of Capitalism:

The Changing Role of Private Organizations
in the Context of Global Affairs 97
Christian Busch

6 International Justice and the International Criminal

Court at a Critical Juncture 123
Jennifer Trahan

xiii
xiv CONTENTS

7 Feminist Principles in Global Affairs: Undiplomatic

Practice 149
Anne Marie Goetz

8 Taking Conflict Transformation Education Seriously 175

Thomas Hill

9 A Changing Agenda for International Development 199

Jens Rudbeck

10 Cyber Competition and Global Stability 223

Pano Yannakogeorgos

11 The Upending of the Geopolitics of Energy:

Disruption Is the New Normal 247
Carolyn Kissane

12 The Future of Climate Action: From Systems Change

to Behavior Change 271
Michael Shank

13 The United Nations: Managing Unrealistic

Expectations 295
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu

Index 321
 Notes on Contributors

Christopher Ankersen is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for

Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. His
research focuses on international security and civil-military relations. He
has experience as a military officer, consultant, and UN civil servant in
Europe and Asia. His Twitter handle is @ProfAnkersen.
Christian Busch is a Clinical Assistant Professor, and Director of the
Global Economy concentration at the Center for Global Affairs, School
of Professional Studies, New York University. His latest publication is The
Serendipity Mindset. His Twitter handle is @ChrisSerendip.
Anne Marie Goetz is a Clinical Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. She
researches gender issues in democratization and peacebuilding processes
in East Africa, South and South East Asia, and has worked for the UN
on gender and governance, peace and security. Her twitter handle is
@amgoetz.
Thomas Hill is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. He also
serves as director of the Peace Research and Education Program (PREP).
The Twitter handle for PREP is @NYUPeace.
John V. Kane is a Clinical Assistant Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. His research

xv
xvi NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

interests include public opinion and experimental methodology. His

research has been published in numerous peer-reviewed academic jour-
nals, and featured in leading media outlets. His Twitter handle is
@UptonOrwell.
Carolyn Kissane is the Academic Director, and a Clinical Professor
where she leads the Energy and Environment concentration at the Center
for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University.
Her Twitter handle is @CarolynKissane.
Michael F. Oppenheimer is a Clinical Professor, and leads the IR
Futures concentration at the Center for Global Affairs, School of Profes-
sional Studies, New York University. His latest book is Pivotal Coun-
tries, Alternate Futures. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign
Relations. His Twitter handle is @MFOppenheimer.
Jens Rudbeck is a Clinical Associate Professor, and the head of the
International Development and Humanitarian Assistance concentration
at the Center for Global Affairs, New York University. His research
focuses primarily on processes of democratization and regime change in
developing countries. His Twitter handle is @JensRudbeck
Michael Shank is an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University, and Commu-
nications Director at the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance. His Twitter
handle is @Michael_Shank.
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu is a Clinical Associate Professor, and leads
the United Nations specialization at the Center for Global Affairs, School
of Professional Studies, New York University. Widely published, he has
over 25 years of experience in policy research related to the United
Nations. His Twitter handle is @wpssidhu.
Jennifer Trahan is a Clinical Professor, and head of the Human Rights
and International Law concentration at the Center for Global Affairs,
School of Professional Studies, New York University. She is a prolific
scholar on issues of international justice and international law, including
the veto power of the UN Security Council.
Pano Yannakogeorgos is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for
Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University, and
is leading the launch of the new Masters of Science in Global Security,
Conflict and Cyber. Previously he was Founding Dean of the Air Force
Cyber College at Air University.
 List of Figures

Fig. 4.1 Ideological differences in believing an unsupported claim

is true (Source Author’s creation based on data collected
from U.S. adults. Notes Left half of figure shows results
for one claim, while right half of figure shows results for
the opposite claim. Bars indicate proportion of group
believing that the claim is “likely to be true.” Bars include
95% confidence intervals) 77
Fig. 4.2 A small, but encouraging, effect for warning of motivated
reasoning bias (Source Author’s creation based on data
collected from U.S. adults. Notes Left half of figure shows
results for liberals, while right half of figure shows results
for conservatives. Bars indicate proportion of group
believing that the claim [“Placing strict limits on welfare
increases drug-related crime.”] is “likely to be true.” Bars
include 95% confidence intervals) 79
Fig. 4.3 Providing empirical evidence had no effect on perceived
veracity (Source Author’s creation based on data collected
from U.S. adults. Note Bars indicate mean scores on a
1 [“Extremely Unlikely to Be True”] to 5 [“Extremely
Likely to Be True”] scale regarding the claim [“Allowing
more immigrants into a country will tend to increase
crime rates.”]. Bars include 95% confidence intervals) 83

xvii
xviii LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 5.1 The impact organization (Source Author’s own creation) 113
Fig. 11.1 Estimated petroleum and natural gas production in
selected countries (Source U.S. Energy Information
Administration, based on International Energy Statistics.
Note Petroleum includes crude oil, condensate, and
natural gas plant liquids) 251
 List of Tables

Table 4.1 A limited interest in examining evidence 82

Table 4.2 A step-by-step guide for evaluating claims 87

xix
 CHAPTER 1

Introduction: Navigating Unchartered Waters

Christopher Ankersen and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu

“The world,” according to, United States President Donald Trump, “is
a very dangerous place.”1 While this might be dismissed as character-
istic hyperbole from, perhaps, the most sciolistic leader of our times, it
inadvertently underlines the existential challenges posed by the multitude
of seismic shifts since the start of the twenty-first century. While Trump’s
sentiment is perceived by many as characteristic of the international arena,
the ways in which it is dangerous are changing. Three distinct trends
are discernable. First, there are growing intrastate conflicts, which range
from urban violence to terrorism, the takeover of ungoverned spaces
by extremist groups, secessionist movements, and civil wars. These have
erupted on every continent and have mostly been conducted with small
arms and light weapons, though some conflicts have also witnessed the
use of chemical and biological weapons. The period has also seen matura-
tion of the “Forever War” that started on 9/11, accelerated after the
invasion of Iraq, and now sees US forces continue to fight terrorism

C. Ankersen (B) · W. P. S. Sidhu

Center for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University,
New York, NY, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
W. P. S. Sidhu
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s) 2021 1

C. Ankersen and W. P. S. Sidhu (eds.), The Future of Global Affairs,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56470-4_1
2 C. ANKERSEN AND W. P. S. SIDHU

from Afghanistan to the Philippines to Somalia. In most of these conflicts

innocent civilians have become hapless targets.
Second, the post-Cold War honeymoon is finally over; there are
deepening tensions between major international rivals, evident in the
increasing interstate conflicts and proxy wars both between regional actors
as well as global powers, including some nuclear-armed states. Promi-
nent among these are messy military entanglements in and around Syria
involving Russia, the United States, Iran, Israel, and Turkey, with the
potential of serious escalation. Similarly, Iran and Saudi Arabia are pitted
against each other in Yemen, while China is challenging all the littoral
powers in the South China Sea. These contestations are over territo-
rial, ideological, and normative disputes, including varying interpretations
of international norms and laws. Coupled with modernization programs
and doctrines that might allow for use of nuclear weapons, the nature
of the emerging pattern of interstate conflict is contributing to global
disorder. Indeed, the latest Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released by
the United States has led many to worry that the long “nuclear peace”
might give way to renewed nuclear competition, if not all-out nuclear war.
These concerns are exacerbated by an exceedingly impulsive, disruptive,
and twitter-happy chief executive in Washington. Simultaneously, China,
always expected to become a dominant global actor, has done so mainly
through its massive economic leverage and growing military clout, and is
providing diplomatic and financial support for alternatives to the liberal
democracy and the post-1945 development script, through a combina-
tion of checkbook diplomacy, military intimidation, and leadership of key
UN agencies.
Third, there is a slew of old and new transnational threats—both
manmade and natural—that no single nation—however powerful—can
manage on its own. These range from pandemics (such as the ongoing
COVID-19 and earlier Ebola outbreaks), natural disasters (wildfires and
floods), climate change induced catastrophes, global criminal networks,
international extremist organizations, cyber and other forms of attacks,
and global proliferation networks. Indeed, despite dire warnings of a
climate crisis, the rate at which CO2 is entering the atmosphere and
contributing to the global warming has not slowed in the last decade
and a half; this even before the imprudent burning of the Amazon forest.
Moreover, cyber and emerging technologies underline the ability of the
individual to construct and disrupt global developments. The iPhone,
which is younger than the Center for Global Affairs, now numbers over
 1 INTRODUCTION: NAVIGATING UNCHARTERED WATERS 3

a billion, allowing an unprecedented flow of information—and disinfor-

mation—to reach people all over the globe, including in the hands of
the unparalleled number of migrants fleeing violence or seeking better
opportunities.
These trends reflect disruptions and discontinuities in global affairs,
as well as the potential destruction of the world as we know it. These
formidable trends would have been difficult to manage even in ordinary
circumstances, but they are exacerbated by several emerging characteris-
tics that are contributing to global disorder.2
First, there is the emergence of uber-national, populist leaders and
governments who, while putting their own nations first, are challenging
the globalization that they helped build. This has led some of them to
opt out of international agreements and treaties that they had signed up
to. Moreover, many of these leaders and nations are either outrightly
rejecting multilateralism or are, at the very least, questioning and chal-
lenging international processes, norms, and institutions.
Second, these developments are unfolding against a fragile global
economic backdrop marked by unprecedented trade wars. The Great
Recession of 2008 shook confidence in global capitalism, and required
extraordinary interventions by states and international organizations,
introducing austerity measures that have exacerbated inequalities and
deepened the social divides. The next impending recession in the era
of COVID-19, given the advent of nationalist and populist governments
hell-bent on brazenly rejecting the inevitable march of globalization, and
willing to embark on unwinnable trade wars, might prove to be even more
destructive at the national, regional, and global level.
Third, is the emergence of a disorderly multipolar world. While on the
one hand the world is moving toward political, economic, technological,
and normative multipolarity, on the other the ability to project power
globally still remains the domain of one power—the United States. This
means that while countries like Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico,
and South Africa can shape the emerging rules of global governance,
they do not have the ability to enforce them. Unless these powers can
become security providers, “multipolarity” in the security realm will be a
misnomer.
Fourth, a similar multipolarity is apparent in decision-making of
most domestic, regional, and global rules. This is on account of the
emergence of many stakeholders—beyond the traditional state—in the
decision-making process at the national, regional, and global levels. These
4 C. ANKERSEN AND W. P. S. SIDHU

stakeholders, including, civil society, private sector, rich foundations and

individuals, and cities pose challenges but also hold solutions to the global
disorder. At the very least the traditional state-led, top-down decision-
making process now also has to contend with non-state-led, bottom-up
decision-making processes with the inevitable clash. This is evident in
many of the emerging international negotiations and treaties.
Fifth, the rapid pace of technology evolution and diffusion, with
the ability to empower individuals, small groups, and even weak states
has the potential of creating asymmetrical competition. Coupled with
the earlier characteristics of nationalism, multipolarity, and multistake-
holderism, there is a seemingly insurmountable gap between the emerging
technological capabilities and the ability to create norms and institutions
to manage or govern them. The case of He Jiankui, a researcher at
Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, who used
CRISPR (Clustered regularly-interspaced short palindromic repeats) to
create the first gene-edited twins (Lulu and Nana) in his clinic exemplifies
this dilemma.
Finally, while propaganda was always a decisive instrument in global
affairs, the advent of 24 × 7 global social media, coupled with fact-
less news or “fake news,” armies of trolls, and the ability to influence
millions across borders instantaneously poses new disruptive threats. This
is highlighted by the revelations of Russia’s interference in the 2016 US
elections, and similar fears for the 2020 hustings.
Not all news is bad, of course: The period witnessed the culmination
of the Millennium Development Goals and the launch of their successors,
the even more ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In
the realm of international law and human rights the activism of the
International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and
the Special Rapporteurs initiative have raised accountability of some of
the most powerful nations and leaders, even though the enforcement of
many decisions remains woefully inadequate. Similarly, even as Aramco’s
public listing falls short of expectations, the surge toward renewable
energy is noteworthy. In 2004, same-sex marriage was recognized in
only a handful of jurisdictions; now that list has 29 countries on it. The
#MeToo movement has helped to raise awareness of, and erode impunity
for, sexual abuse and harassment in a variety of professions around the
world. The decades-long civil war in Colombia came to a peaceful end
(although the peace arrangement remains fragile). Thinkers like Steven
Pinker remind us that, on aggregate, we live in a richer, healthier, less
 1 INTRODUCTION: NAVIGATING UNCHARTERED WATERS 5

violent age now than our ancestors.3 Billions of people have been lifted
out of absolute poverty, diseases like small pox and polio have been
eradicated or nearly so. Life expectancy for most of the world has been
extended. This has not come about automatically or by accident: it has
required dedicated planning and consistent efforts from a whole range
of actors, working top-down, bottom-up, and inside-out all at once.
Lessons have been learned, forgotten or ignored, and relearned in the
process. This progress has been measurable and welcome, but should in
no way be regarded as permanent. Any hope for continued improvement
will rest on deliberate, and collective effort.
The fragility of progress is evident in the United Nations (UN) Secre-
tary General’s warning that the SDGs, hailed as the pinnacle of a desire for
global improvement for all, are in grave danger, as no country is on target
to reach them by 2030.4 Similarly, the erstwhile hope contained within
the wishy-washy 2015 Paris agreement and climate targets was revealed
just four years later in Madrid to have been insufficient, as several nations
clung to the illusion that incremental remedies in the face of a climate
emergency were still plausible. The global trade regime, embodied in the
World Trade Organization, is on the precipice of irrelevance: tariffs and
counter-tariffs look ready to resume, and its dispute resolution mechanism
has come under concerted attack from Washington. In the COVID-
19 era, the need for global responses seems apparent, but today the
centrality of the UN across a range of topics is seriously undermined by
the contempt for multilateralism shown by the current US administration
and other key governments around the world. Some believe that the very
world order—liberal, rule-based, or a vehicle for soft US-hegemony—
is, at the very least, set to shift or, in the extreme scenario, is likely to
entirely collapse. Within that world order, what was once regarded as
the “end of history”—the supremacy of the liberal democratic form of
governance—now appears more fragile than ever, with populism on the
rise everywhere and authoritarian regimes retrenching around the globe.
Ironically, the biggest threat to the liberal democratic order is coming
from within and is led by those who were until recently its custodians. In
2018 Freedom House, for instance, reported its twelfth consecutive drop
in overall freedom, noting a reduction in a number of rights.
What are we to make of this? Will the future of global affairs be the
extension of current trends? Or will we see more disruptions, discontinu-
ities, and even destruction of the existing world order? The complexity
6 C. ANKERSEN AND W. P. S. SIDHU

of global affairs (as the sum of real-world activity) requires a multidimen-

sional point of view, and an interdisciplinary set of tools, techniques, and
concepts if it is to be understood and influenced.
Global Affairs (as an academic field) was in its infancy in the immediate
afterglow of the Cold War; now it has expanded in scale and sophis-
tication. While Global Affairs incorporates perspectives from traditional
academic disciplines, such as Development, Political Economy, Interna-
tional Law, and International Relations, it does so in a synthetic way
that allows dynamic and polysemic issues, such as energy and the envi-
ronment, human rights, and gender relations to be treated holistically.
Global Affairs is marked not only by a variegated set of foci, but has
increasingly incorporated rigorous and robust means of inquiry and anal-
ysis. Indeed, the field in 2019 bears little resemblance with that of 2004
when the term first came into vogue, at least among practitioners. How
will Global Affairs as an intellectual and practical enterprise evolve in the
coming years? What is next for the discipline and will the field be able to
keep pace with its topsy-turvy subject matter?
The aim of this volume is to address these questions, but not to
produce a series of identical chapters, each more or less a literature
review attempting to distill a “state of the discipline.” Rather, the chapters
will reflect the diversity of approaches and subjects that coexist within a
necessarily multidisciplinary body of thought that is Global Affairs. Some
chapters will be case studies of particular events or episodes; others may
seek to address wider themes evident in trends and tropes. Each chapter
in this volume will offer a slice of a wider picture, allowing readers to
appreciate the breadth of the field and depth of inquiry into particular
aspects of it.
While the chapters span the spectrum of Global Affairs, all of them
speak to the broad theme of the future both in terms of real-world events,
and the study of them. Despite its heterogeneity, the volume itself will
reverberate with recurring themes, some of which will guide its develop-
ment, many of which will emerge as the research—and the discussions
that stem from it—progresses. Those themes include:

• Whose ideas matter in Global Affairs?

• Which actors will have the greatest impact?
• Will cooperation or competition prevail?
• Has multilateralism peaked?
• Will sovereignty be a problem or a solution?
 1 INTRODUCTION: NAVIGATING UNCHARTERED WATERS 7

• Are there lessons we can learn from the past to help build a better
future?

Before tackling those questions, though, it is worthwhile spending time

on the concepts that underpin this enterprise. We now turn to explo-
rations of what constitutes global affairs; how we might look at the future;
and how the exercise of power is changing.

What Is Global Affairs?

The sum of human activity occurring on a planetary scale is clearly too
broad and deep to be encapsulated easily. When we, as a species, have
attempted to create an overarching narrative to describe and explain what
happens at this scale, we have done so in cosmological or theological
ways. Suprahuman forces set our world in motion and are responsible for
all that takes place or will take place. All can be understood only through
the all-seeing, the all-knowing, the all-powerful. Mysteries abound but
the world is a unified whole. Divination, elevation, or intercession are our
only hope at understanding or influencing the world.
In our states and in our academies, on the other hand, our proclivity is
to divide and conquer. And so governments have foreign ministries, trade
bureaus, aid agencies, and defense departments. Universities, likewise, are
divided into faculties and disciplines. Each of these categories promises
to make tackling global affairs more manageable through specializing;
the game-winning strategy is supposedly one of uber-specialization. It is
our contention that such hyper-focus, a commitment to drilling down
into the component aspects of global affairs, may blind us to the larger
patterns at play. Library shelves are full of tomes extolling the various
traditional subject-first approaches to world issues. However, Economics
without Politics, Law without History, Development without Gender all
fail to encompass the comprehensiveness that is Global Affairs.
Global affairs are, simply put, the activities that take place across the
world, outside the scope of a single state. Indeed, as we argue in this
volume, global affairs are beyond the scope of any and all states. While
global affairs have existed for centuries, it is only recently that they have
been recognized as such. Rather than merely looking at the world as the
sum of diplomacy or trade, foreign ministries were forced to acknowl-
edge the existence of other activities and other actors after the end of the
8 C. ANKERSEN AND W. P. S. SIDHU

Cold War. After decades of strict us versus them approaches, untidy prob-
lems began to be noticed; untidy because they did not fit into existing
organizational mandates or categories. And so foreign ministries began
creating new divisions and desks to deal with these so-called new or non-
traditional challenges. What was included in those miscellaneous bureaux
began modestly enough: things like human security, sustainable develop-
ment, post-conflict justice, etc. Rather than the black and white world of
war and peace, there was a recognition—long overdue—that global affairs
was far more complex than previously conceived.5
Building on this appreciation of complexity, Global Affairs,6 as an
academic field of study seeks to be more holistic, harnessing the special
knowledge contained in Economics, International Law, and Interna-
tional Relations (as examples), and amplifying their analytical power
through combination with other approaches. For instance, no discus-
sion of the global economy can be complete without reference to world
energy markets. And, as is increasingly clear, only looking at energy as
a commodity, and ignoring its effects on the environment and human
development is inadequate, to say the least. Indeed, a singular focus on
politics or economics, will yield a poorer result than a more well-rounded
approach, inclusive of social and cultural aspects of global affairs.
As such, this volume is committed to surveying the future of global
affairs from a number of perspectives, looking to point out connec-
tions where they occur. When looking at security, for example, we have
to consider the role of gender. When considering the UN, we have
to see it across all its facets, not just the Security Council, the Secre-
tariat, or any one of its specialized agencies. When considering global
actors, we must include more than just states, incorporating the needs
and contributions—both positive and negative—of corporations, NGOs,
and individuals.
Finally, it is vital that we expand our focus beyond the West and
acknowledge the truly global nature of global affairs. The ideas, aspi-
rations, and challenges of many states and peoples around the world
have tended to have been sidelined by International Relations, or, when
considered, shoe-horned into existing structures (e.g., East versus West,
North versus South), neglecting the needs of billions of people, rele-
gating countries to bit parts, with only significance if and when they
might further an agenda other than their own. A large part of this belated
recognition must include an appreciation that, while change may be a
global constant, it impacts us all in different ways. Beyond irresponsibly
 1 INTRODUCTION: NAVIGATING UNCHARTERED WATERS 9

assigning people roles as victims, potential customers, likely terrorists, or

future challengers, Global Affairs must dedicate itself to authentic engage-
ment with the ideas and agency of the entire planet. Besides, as recent
trends, especially in the time of COVID-19, have shown, norm creation
is increasingly being driven by actors from the global South—both state
and non-state—as well as by middle or small powers, rather than hege-
mons. The discipline will be well served to recognize and take on board
these perspectives.

Power, State, and System

The state, contrary to assertions of its demise or irrelevance, continues
to remain the primary actor in the contemporary world. Its central role
in global affairs is not going to change in the short term. Indeed, we
are constantly reminded of the allure of the state, partly because those
groups which are not states often clamor to become them. This is as
true for the Islamic State as it is for the people of Bougainville. If this
were not enough evidence of the utility of being a state, we could look
at how statehood is actively being denied to the Kurds and others (by
several of their neighboring governments). Statehood remains coin of the
global realm. Only states can occupy full-voting seats at the UN General
Assembly. Only states can receive loans from the World Bank. States are
flexing their muscles on and offline, using their power to control the flow
of information and the behavior of their citizens. Iran was able to shut
down its internet in the Autumn of 2019. The Chinese state has interned
a million of its citizens, and is building up structures in the South China
Sea. The US state is building a wall along its southern border and operates
a fleet of thirteen aircraft carriers. How many battalions, we might we
ask, has the Pope? Or Amazon? Or Ali Baba? Or Amnesty International?
However, state collapse or failure—notably in Afghanistan, Haiti, and in
several countries in Africa—is also indicative that the weaker ones also
pose danger to themselves, others states, and their peoples.
Additionally, we should not be blind to the fact that states, while
seeming indelible, are not the only actors on the global stage. Unarmed
firms like Google, Facebook, Nestle, and Exxon control resources and
have influence well beyond the reach of many of the nearly 200 states
now extant. What is more, with that economic clout, they are often
able to hold sway over states, convincing them to legislate in ways
which favor their commercial interests. Moreover, now individuals too
10 C. ANKERSEN AND W. P. S. SIDHU

have the wherewithal to achieve change on their own, or to influence

states to adopt their agenda. Technology has lowered the barrier of
entry, providing non-state actors or individuals the ability to buy, sell,
communicate, and even attack like never before. While individuals like
Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk illustrate the economic poten-
tial of individuals, Greta Thunberg, Malala Yusufzai, and Nadia Murad
highlight that the conviction and voice of a single person, even without
billions of dollars, can resonate across oceans and over borders. Perhaps
even more effective at mobilizing action are civil society groups, such
as the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)—
a coalition of 500 nongovernmental and civil society organizations in
101 countries—that spearheaded the process, which culminated in the
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons or the NGO Ban Killer
Robots, which has animated the debate on autonomous weapon systems,
convincing diplomats from states around the world to echo their message
in the chambers of the Conference on Disarmament within the Palais des
Nations in Geneva.
How can we make sense of this? One way is to expand our under-
standing of power and look beyond the usual dimensions of military
and political, which so far have tended to favor states. Michael Mann’s
four-fold sources of social power formulation is instructive here.7 To the
traditional three aspects of power he adds a normative or ideological
power. And it is, perhaps, here where we have seen the biggest change.
Increasingly states are regarded as lacking in normative power, both
from without and within their borders. “Sovereignty First” movements
have exposed the naked interests of individual states, leaving little room
for cooperation, sacrificing collective action on the altar of beggar thy
neighbor. State-run disinformation campaigns, preferences for short-term
gains tied to election cycles or regime security have tarnished the legit-
imacy of the state. This normative power is now diffused, and scattered
among other actors. In some cases, people appear to place more trust
in corporations. Billions of users of platforms, such as Google or Face-
book willingly give up large swathes of their private data—information
they would object to falling into the hands of domestic law enforcement
or foreign espionage agencies. Similarly, some regional and international
organizations also command legitimacy and are considered more trust-
worthy than even some of their member states, perhaps on account of
their seemingly “supranational” ambit. UNICEF and the Red Cross, for
instance, enjoy the trust of many around the world. This diffusion is
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