Frbhe 2 1492735
Frbhe 2 1492735
REVIEWED BY
1 1,2 3
Sarah Jewell, Vipra Jain *, Subrato Banerjee and Priyanka Kothari
University of Reading, United Kingdom
Sundar Ponnusamy, 1
Department of Economics, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, 2 Centre for
Monash University, Australia Behavioural Economics, Society and Technology (BEST), Brisbane, QLD, Australia, 3 Labour Market
*CORRESPONDENCE
Research Facility, School of Management and Labour Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences,
Vipra Jain Mumbai, India
[email protected]
KEYWORDS
age-related declines in fitness can impact any player’s ability how he used his mental strength in an Indian Premier League (IPL)
to maintain previously attained performance levels. This age- match in 2011, as a 39-year old sportsman.
performance relationship has been studied in the labor market
(Kim and Lee, 2023; Borsch-Supan et al., 2021; Borsch-Supan “I was hardly in the right physical shape and tried my best to
and Weiss, 2016), for cognitively demanding tasks (Dumas, 2015; make up for it mentally. I kept visualizing my past performances.
Hertzog, 2020; Kalwij and Jaegher, 2023; Kanfer and Ackerman, It was a nerve-racking situation.”
2004; Lehman, 1953), and financial tasks (Agarwal et al., 2009;
Eberhardt et al., 2019) among other fields of research. The link Our contribution to literature is threefold. First, the existing
between age and performance has also been explored in certain studies on cricket primarily focus on the age-performance
other sports including road-cycling (Kholkine et al., 2023), hockey relationship in the different formats of the more popular Twenty-
and golf (Berry et al., 1999), tennis and boxing (Lehman, 1953), 20 cricket (Saikia et al., 2019, 2015), and test cricket—considered
running and swimming (Ericsson, 1990), 25 Olympic sports events, the gold standard of assessment of cricketer quality (Mangan,
the game of chess (Berthelot et al., 2012), and basketball (Hach et al., 2014). We focus on ODI cricket because it is mix of the pure
2023).1 The interplay between experience and fitness often shapes and the popular formats of cricket and has strategic elements of
the performance trajectory of individual players, characterized both these extremes (with twenty-20 which is about extreme hard-
by an initial ascent to peak performance followed by a gradual hitting and test cricket which is demanding enough to test the
decline, leading to inverted-U shaped performance-curve, often mettle of a cricketer). Thus, ODI cricket is a beautiful game that
also observed in various domains of human endeavor (Ericsson attains a fine balance between aggression and tact. In addition,
et al., 1993; Berthelot et al., 2019). our primary reason to specifically look at ODI cricket has to
A senior player often takes a tactical approach to the game do with the sheer volume of data in comparison to twenty-20
with strategic thought (Silva et al., 2020). Younger players are fitter international cricket (a format that is only two-decades old) and
with better reflexes that aid their approach to a sport (Schulz and test cricket which is played with a far lesser frequency in a year (in
Curnow, 1988). We econometrically look for the age (range) of comparison to ODI cricket).4 The research by Jamil et al. (2023)
peak-performance at which the fine balance between fitness and that looks at bowlers’ performances specifically in 2019 ODI cricket
experience is attained. That sportsmen attain a peak performing age World Cup is the closest to ours. We look at both bowlers’ and
before their performance dips is an observation that even applies batters’ performances for all ODI matches (including world cups)
to cricket. We look at performance data for all players in One till 2000 (for cleanest results as explained in Section 3). Second,
Day International (ODI hereafter) cricket matches played during while previous studies mostly focus exclusively either on bowling
1971–2000 to find the age-range at which this peak occurs. In the performances (Crowther et al., 2023; Thorley, 2021; Jamil et al.,
section on the description of data, we provide detailed reasons for 2023) or exclusively batting performances (Mangan, 2014), this
the choice of our period of study. study estimates the peak performing age of both batters and bowlers
Santhanam and Balasubramanian (2009) observed that in ODI cricket. Finally, we provide a formal economic framework
between the age of 32 and 34 years, the performance-levels of some to explain the trade-off between youth and experience. As players
of the greatest senior-cricketers (including Gordon Greenidge, begin their career, initially the marginal benefit from staying fit is
Garfield Sobers, Adam Gilchrist, Sunil Gavaskar, Rahul Dravid, greater than the marginal cost of inexperience. As a player ages
Vivian Richards and Sachin Tendulkar) declined significantly. initially, the marginal benefit of experience potentially outweighs
They call it the “thirty-three effect”. Even for a top player like Sachin the marginal cost of becoming less fit (and if fitness levels also
Tendulkar, Mirza (2023) notes that being fit “. . . when you’re 40 get better, then the performance unambiguously gets better since
and . . . putting your body through intense physical activity for 24 experience-gain could complement fitness in this initial age-range).
years couldn’t have been easy.” In trying to uncover these dynamics between fitness and experience
Schulz et al. (1994) and Bradbury (2009) report that using ODI cricket data, we estimate the age where the marginal
performance peaks between the ages of 27–29 years in their benefit from experience equals the marginal costs of declining
research on baseball. In addition to studies that directly relate sports fitness. This information could aid team selection committees in
performance to fitness (Cureton, 1956; Lucifora and Simmons, finding the best mix of young and senior players for performing
2003), there are studies which emphasize the role of experience, in tournaments. Experienced players know their responsibilities
mental-ability and technical skills in improving performance well and can help youngsters be strategic. At the same time, an
(Saikia et al., 2019). These characteristics are seen in senior players infusion of youngsters can improve the overall average fitness of the
who tend to better handle pressure.2 Raman (2009) analyzes how team. In general, any team in any group-sport must find a judicious
senior players employ elaborate skillsets to keep performing despite mix of youth and experience. Note that the duration of an ODI
falling fitness-levels.3 Ganguly (2018) in his autobiography explains cricket match is by far the maximum (close to 8 h) among all other
well-known team-sports.
1 See Allen and Hopkins (2015), Berthelot et al. (2015), and Marck et al.
(2019), and the citations therein. seasons (see: https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/indian-premier-league-
2 South African cricketer Graeme Smith is an excellent example (see: 2011-the-ipl-xi-517150).
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/older-wiser-leader-360426). 4 During our period of study, about 28 test matches were played per year
3 Many experienced cricket players like Chris Gayle, Virat Kohli, Mahendra on an average. This is almost half that of the average number of ODI matches
Singh Dhoni and others have excelled in various Indian Premier League (IPL) (about 55) played per year during the same period.
5 We are only looking at men’s ODI cricket. Female cricket was not well zero for these four intervening years is not necessarily accurate (even though
established during our period of study and hence we do not have sufficient it is unambiguously not international experience). For simplicity, we assume
number of data points for meaningful analysis. that players have no break in their career. We will later discuss why we have
FIGURE 2
Talent constraint with career breaks.
temporary or permanent breaks (say) due to career-threatening or theory, we expect the ICs between youth and experience to slope
career-ending injuries. These cases are respectively covered in the downward in the region where both are productive (i.e., each
two panels of Figure 2. contributes positively to performance). If there is “too much” of
In Figure 2a, a player accumulates experience up to point B youth, (say beyond y0 in Figure 3a where the players are very young
after which there is a break in his career (say, due to an injury), so and bodies are still developing without yet any built-up stamina),
he “loses his youth” (by a magnitude of y0 – y1 ) for the duration then youth could potentially take away from performance (“over-
of his career-break before returning to play until his retirement bowled” young bowlers for instance, are likely to be prone to
at R. Note that there is no necessary addition to his experience more injuries which could prevent them from maintaining their
during his career-break. In Figure 2b, the player in question gains performance). One could make the same argument for experience
experience up to the point E after which his career comes to an if it becomes unproductive beyond the level x0 . In the region of
abrupt end either due to an injury or for some other reason (so all youth beyond y0 or experience beyond x0 , the IC slopes upward.
youth is lost and E coincides with R on the horizontal axis marking In Figure 3b, we present the possibility that too much experience,
the end of a player’s active career). One very real example where while not necessarily unproductive beyond x0 could cease to add to
individual players experienced an end of their careers involved performance in any meaningful way.
the infamous match-fixing scandal in the period 1999–2000. This In the real world, we do not usually observe a region with
period witnessed a permanent suspension of several cricketers from too much of both youth and experience since we do not expect
a few nations that eventually therefore needed a mass-addition of very young people to have a great deal of experience. For now, in
fresh players selected to fill up the team-positions rendered vacant what follows, we will focus on the region where both youth (ability
due to the suspended cricketers. This structural break around to maintain peak-fitness) and experience are “productive inputs”,
the year 2000 that caused a major disruption in the cricketing we have downward-sloping, smooth and convex performance
world (following which the continuing senior sportsmen and newly indifference curves (ICs). The higher ICs (again in the north-east
selected sportsmen played in cricket tournaments under tighter direction) are associated with higher levels of performance. Note
scrutiny) prevents any smooth data analysis from the end of the that these ICs will be vertically-biased (or flatter) particularly for
1990s to the beginning of 2000s and therefore majorly contributes bowlers (and even more so for fast-bowlers). This is because the
to our decision to only look at the time-period before 2000 for relative value of fitness is higher for fast-bowlers than it is for
a meaningful analysis under mostly similar conditions. We will batters. Similarly, performance ICs for batters will be horizontally-
elaborate more on this in the discussion of our choice of time- biased (or steeper). In Figure 4 we illustrate these ideas. Note that
period of study. more experience for a given level of youth is likely to add to
We now come to the development of performance indifference performance (indicating a movement to a higher performance IC).
curves (ICs) for cricketers. We model performance (P) as a function This explains why many players wish to avoid “resting out” through
of youth (Y) and experience (X) so that P = f (x, y). A given level tournaments and prefer continued match-play since that could
of performance can be attained with varied combinations of youth potentially help maintain form and consistency. On one occasion,
and experience shown by the “performance indifference curves” when Virender Sehwag was a newcomer, he was assured a place in
(Figure 3).7 In Figures 3a, b, we provide a general representation the team even if he underperformed batting in a position out of his
to account for various possibilities. Just as in standard economic then comfort-zone by Sourav Ganguly who was then the captain of
the Indian team.
avoided international cricketers with frequent and long career-breaks (in the It is clear that these ICs are two-dimensional projections
subsection on data description). of performance measured along the third dimension. Better
7 We can also think of youth and experience as inputs and performance as
performing cricketers achieve a higher vertical measure of
output.
performance (again, measured along the third dimension) for
FIGURE 3
Performance indifference curves.
FIGURE 4
Performance indifference curves with productive youth and experience.
any given amounts of youth and experience. Finally, there exists to himself. As has often been observed, seasoned players do
a critical value of experience and youth (fitness) where the assume mentorship roles, guiding younger teammates through
performance peaks. This is the point of tangency between the their insights (Chopra, 2012)—this knowledge transfer (Funasaki
talent constraint and the performance indifference curve (shown in et al., 2024) has proved to be very important time and again.
Figure 5). In Figure 5, x∗ , y∗ is the point where the performance In addition, when opponents focus most on the seasoned
′ ′
of a batter peaks and x , y is the corresponding point for a players (Doshi, 2016), younger teammates get the advantage of
bowler. Under these conditions, the peak performance (P0 ) for a playing without pressure, just like Sehwag, a relatively younger
batter will take place at a higher value of experience and lower value player once said in relation to a more established senior
of youth, and conversely for a bowler (P1 ). Starting from the point player (Tendulkar):
of debut (on the vertical intercept), the arrows show that as we go
down, the benefits from experience outweigh the loss of youth, and “When I’m batting with Sachin Tendulkar, there’s very less
thus, higher levels of performance are attained till a peak P0 or P1 pressure on me because the opponents are all concentrating on
is reached, beyond which, the loss of youth outweighs the benefits getting him out”.8
from experience.
Finally, it should be noted that even after reaching the Similarly, in any organization the experienced team-members
peak performance-level, a player might not consider retirement can often take the pressure to let the youth flourish and grow to
because one’s own experience has positive externalities that other build their own experience (Argote et al., 2000). It is nonetheless
younger players (and by extension, the team as a whole) can clear that below-peak performance for those exceptionally talented
benefit from—and these positive externalities in the aggregate, senior players may still exceed the peak performances of (say)
may outweigh the effects of lower fitness (in comparison
to younger players) of the said player of experience. The
argument is easily seen in an analogous setting where the 8 This quote can be found in: https://www.bcci.tv/articles/2022/
above-mentioned experienced player would have in his own news/93456#:∼:text=When%20I’m%20batting%20with,concentrating%20
youth borrowed from the experience of those who were senior on%20getting%20him%20out
FIGURE 5
Peak performance.
average or below-average young players. Thus, even if one were to better gauge the pure effect of age on the performances of both
completely abstract away from potential mentorship roles, those batters and bowlers (i.e., when the rule-changes were less frequent).
exceptionally talented senior cricketers may remain in the team Our choice of the time period between 1971 (when the first
simply on their own accord. Sachin Tendulkar for instance, may ODI match was ever played) and 2000 is primarily driven by three
not have batted in 2012 (when he was almost 39 years old) as well major reasons. First, the match-fixing scandal of 2000 needed an
as he did in his prime, but he still continued to remain in the team immediate solution that in turn required a major diversion of the
because he was still contributing significantly more runs to the team resources of the International Cricket Council (ICC), along with the
total in comparison to several younger players who eventually saw cricket boards of several countries including India and South Africa
much shorter careers. before the problem became more pronounced at a global level.
This included the announcement of temporary and permanent
suspensions of several cricketers in that year and led to an almost
3 Data and descriptive statistics immediate selection of younger cricketers in a few countries. This
was as good as a structural-break in ODI cricket (since several
It has often been argued that since 2000 cricket has cricketing nations saw an almost-simultaneous reshuffling of the
progressively become a batter’s game. Changes in the laws of mix of players in their teams as we will elaborate more on later).
the game (fielding restrictions, powerplay, free hits from illegal Second (and in some ways, a consequence of the match-fixing
deliveries called “no-balls” and limits on bouncers in an over) episode) ODI cricket saw frequent change of rules as noted in an
along with the evolution of the quality of cricket bats have created article titled “Cricket: ODI rules overwhelmingly favor batters” that
new playing conditions (Noorbhai and Noakes, 2015). All these appeared in a national daily of New Zealand that clearly states
developments in addition to flatter pitches and shorter boundaries, that “no major sport has tinkered with its rules as ceaselessly as
have mostly supported the batters. Players who played before 2000 one-day international cricket . . . Since 1999 many rules have been
can no longer relate to the modern form of the game.9 For instance, introduced and subsequently been scrapped . . . ”.10 Third, and also
when the former Indian captain Sourav Ganguly was asked to noted in the above-mentioned article, with the advent of twenty-
compare the teams that played in the early 1990s with that which 20 cricket (the first ever international match was played between
played in the early 2000s, he elaborated on the pointlessness of the Australia and New Zealand in 2005), both the other formats (ODI
comparison in the following words (Ganguly, 2018): and tests) have witnessed a marked change in players’ attitudes.
For instance, Virender Sehwag’s score of 319 runs in 304 balls
“Two different generations can never be compared. The eras (the fastest test-triple-hundred till then) in a test match against
were different. The mindsets were different.” South Africa in 2008 makes the influence of twenty-20 cricket
(where trying to hit every single ball for a boundary is the norm)
Interestingly, this difference between what Ganguly counts evident in even test cricket (let alone ODIs). Note that the talks for
as two separate eras were only about a decade apart. Given the this new format of cricket initiated well in the late 1990s possibly
regularity of additions to existing rules and changing playing explaining why players like Sanath Jayasuriya, Gary Kirsten, and
conditions since 2000, we only look at ODI matches played before Romesh Kaluwitharana revolutionized aggressive batting during
2000 under more controlled and similar playing conditions to the world cup of 1996 (following which the average strike-rate
9 Also, the audience today looks forward to new batting records rather 10 The article can be accessed through the following link: https://www.
than new bowling records since the former are more frequent than the nzherald.co.nz/sport/cricket-odi-rules-overwhelmingly-favour-batters/
latter and the global audience has formed its expectations accordingly PKS5IIBDZGADBP7XWIYWACM4ZE/#:$\sim$:text=Since%201999%20many
(see: https://www.financialexpress.com/archive/on-the-elements-of-anti- %20rules%20have%20been%20introduced,given%20the%20option%20of
marketing/1163105/). %20when%20to%20implement
during the last 6 years (1994–99) was 35.45 (only 2.9 boundaries Wickets Total wickets taken by a bowler in a particular match
per match higher on an average in comparison to the entire period). Economy-rate Average number of runs conceded for every over bowled
The average number of boundaries per match during 2001-03 was
Independent Description
40.21 (almost five boundaries more than the average during just the
variables
preceding 5 years).
For our study, we focus on 210 cricketers who played ODI Age Age of the ith player in his jth match
matches during 1971–2000.11 We consider only cricketers who Country A dummy for the country represented by the ith player
have played more than 25 matches and have careers spanning Opponent A dummy for the opponent country an ODI match is played
at least 5 years with at most one break-period of at least 1 year against
(in the Appendix we argue that our selected sample is fairly Batter A dummy for whether the ith player is a batter
representative of the population of cricketers that played during our
Bowler A dummy for whether the ith player is a bowler
study period—see Supplementary Figure A2). The reason for our
Wicket-keeper A dummy for whether the ith player is a wicket-keeper
criterion for at most one-break period of over a year of international
cricket is that we want the experience data to be as continuous as All-rounder A dummy for whether the ith player assumed at least two of
the above roles
possible (the previous section models experience as a continuous
variable). The data consists of 22,114 (14,112 for batters and 8,002 Fast-bowler A dummy for whether the ith bowler is a fast-bowler
for bowlers) observations and has been compiled from Wisden, ODI workload Number of ODI matches played by the ith player in the year
Cricinfo and ESPN. Table 1 gives the description of variables used of the jth match
(a brief description of ODI cricket is provided in the Appendix). Test workload Number of test matches played by the ith player in the year
For any given match we look at the number of runs scored of the jth match
and the number of wickets claimed respectively as key performance Balls faced Number of balls faced by the ith batter in his jth match
indicators for batters and bowlers. Other measures such as the Balls bowled Number of overs bowled by the ith bowler in his jth match
strike-rate (a measure of how quickly a batter scores his runs
Venue A dummy for the venue country of a match
and is defined as average runs scored per 100 balls faced) and
Year of match A dummy for the year a match was played in
the economy-rate (the number of runs given away for every six
deliveries bowled) had only become more relevant towards the very Experience ODI matches played by the ith player before his jth match
extreme end of our period of study when the rate at which runs
were scored or given away actually began to matter in this limited-
over format. In any case, we provide results on these measures in TABLE 2 Descriptive statistics.
the Appendix. Table 2 provides the descriptive statistics. We are
interested in the following hypothesis. Variables Average Min Max
H 0 : The average performance of an ODI cricket player is Runs 28.08 0 194
independent of age of the player.
Strike-rate 63.67 0 400
We begin with a preliminary look at the average batting and
bowling performances [measured respectively on the vertical axes Wickets 1.23 0 7
of panels (a) and (b)] by age (on the horizontal axis). In Figure 6a, Economy-rate 4.19 0 24
each point in gray represents the batting average of a player at a Age (in years) 28.34 14 42
given age. For instance, if player i scored m runs and was dismissed
ODI matches played by a cricketer 8.88 0 41
k times during all the matches he played when he was 21 years old, in a year
then his batting average at the age of 21 is m/k which is represented
Test matches played by a cricketer 5.16 0 18
by one dot in gray. We similarly look at other batters’ averages when in a year
they were 21 and represent them with other gray dots. The average Proportion of batters (%) 38.10 - -
of all these average runs scored by all players in our data at their age
Proportion of bowlers (%) 33.80 - -
of 21 is uniquely represented by the black dot—this represents the
expected batting average of a batter at the age of 21. We similarly Proportion of all-rounders (%) 28.10 - -
look at the expected batting averages at other ages for all players
in our sample and immediately see that there are potential reasons
to reject our null hypothesis H 0 since the batting averages clearly out the expected bowling average for each age-value (number of
vary with time. We do a similar analysis for bowlers and work runs conceded to the opponent divided by the number of wickets
claimed) and display the same in Figure 6b—we continue to see
potential reasons to reject H 0 .
11 The first ever ODI match was played on January 5, 1971 between Note that higher batting averages for batters and lower bowling
Australia and England in Melbourne. averages for bowlers represent better performance. As a first step,
FIGURE 6
Batting and bowling averages (individual and overall).
FIGURE 7
Crude fit of batting averages and bowling averages.
we do a crude smooth-curve-fitting exercise on the exact data in jth match. For bowlers, the key dependent variable is the number
Figure 7. of wickets claimed. Xij is the vector of player-specific and match-
It seems that average batting improves with age till it reaches a specific covariates associated with the coefficient vector λ. uij
peak-age before declining as a player ages further. This is also true denotes the stochastic error term. The key variable of interest is Age.
for average bowling performance. To further look into the specific We also include Age2 to account for the non-linear effects of age on
ages of peak performances, we now turn to regressions. the performance of a player based on our observations in Figures 6,
7. For now, we do not take experience as a separate independent
variable because for any given player, age and experience are likely
4 Analysis of results to be correlated (experience could only increase as a player ages).
Further, as pointed out in text footnote 6, some players might have
We begin with the regression (Equation 1), below a break in their career, defining experience for such players may
not be free from ambiguity. We however, also note that players
yij = α0 + α1 Ageij + α2 Age2ij + λXij + uij (1)
who start their careers earlier are expected to have more experience
Here, yij denotes the performance outcome of player i in his at a younger age relative to others who start their careers later
jth match. For batters, we look at runs scored by batter i in his (for instance, the Indian cricketer Sachin Tendulkar started his
To the extent that more talented players derive greater benefit R-squared 0.0026 0.0018 0.0048 0.8197
from experience (borrowing from our theoretical model), one Player fixed-effects No Yes Yes Yes
would expect the main regressors (including age) to be correlated Country/ opponent No No Yes Yes
with unobserved ability or talent (i.e. more talented players evolve dummies
better with age in comparison with average players). In order
Year of the match No No No Yes
to difference out the effects of these unobserved abilities (or dummies
talent), we run a fixed-effects regression shown in the specification
Experience No No No Yes
(Equation 2).
Workload No No No Yes
yij = α0 + α1 Ageij + α2 Age2ij + λXij + Ai + uij (2) ∗ , ∗∗ , ∗∗∗
report significance levels at the 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively. Robust standard errors
are reported in the parentheses.
Where Ai denotes the intrinsic talent/ability of player i
(our player-specific fixed effect). This is where the fixed-effects
specification (Equation 2) becomes useful. The term Ai above Since different countries have varied cultural emphasis on
represents the player-specific fixed-effects and represents the talent different sports, we also include country (represented by the
endowment (or unobserved ability) discussed in Section 2. We now player) dummies and opponent-country dummies in columns 3
discuss the regression results. and 4. For instance, Holland has a weaker culture for cricket in
comparison with Australia just as Brazil has a more pronounced
culture for football in comparison with India (Adelman, 1986;
4.1 Effect of age on the performance of Kirsch, 1991). Home-field advantages may affect the performance
batters of players through many factors like familiarity with the home-
ground and home-conditions (Barnett and Hilditch, 1993; Moore
Table 3 reports the regression results where the dependent and Brylinsky, 1995; Pollard, 2002; Morley and Thomas, 2005).
variable is the runs scored by the ith batter in his jth match. Column To account for these effects we also included venue-dummies as
1 reports the crude least-squares estimates for Equation 1, and the regressors. These venue-country dummies however, were found to
regression results for Equation 2, are reported in columns 2, 3, and be highly correlated with (a linear combination of) the country-
4 (with progressively more controls). dummy or the opponent-country dummy. This is because in
We see that Age is associated with a significantly positive any ODI cricket match, more often than not one of the two
coefficient in each of the four columns above and the coefficient competing countries is also the host country (more specifically,
for Age2 is (again significantly) negative. We therefore infer an country dummy + opponent dummy = country host dummy +
inverted U-shaped relation between age and performance just as opponent host dummy). World cup matches where the host is
seen in Figure 7. We reject the hypothesis H 0 and infer that often a third country are exceptions to this rule, but the world cup
performance first increases to reach a peak with respect to age tournament happens once in 4 years and this relative infrequency
before it eventually diminishes as fitness-levels significantly decline does not significantly reduce the strength of the linear relation
(Kalen et al., 2021; Rey et al., 2022). We also include information discussed here.
on whether a batter also contributed to bowling or wicket-keeping During our period of study (1971–2000), the game of ODI
as a preliminary control for general workload (in column 1). cricket experienced a few regulatory changes (introduction of
The significantly negative coefficient of the “all-rounder” dummy day-night cricket, changes in number of overs in 1987, fielding
variable (as defined in Table 1) suggests that involvement in a game restrictions introduced in 1996, and the Duckworth and Lewis
beyond batting, generally has a crowding out effect on the ability method in 1998). These changes may have affected the outcomes
to bat. Note that there are exceptions to this rule since Kapil Dev, (Silva et al., 2015). We include year-of-match dummies to account
Richard Hadlee, Ian Botham and Imran Khan were exceptionally for these effects (column 4). The significant coefficients on the age
gifted all-rounders. variable tell the same story.
in the following matches (or tournaments) up to an immediate Player fixed–effects No Yes Yes Yes
time-period. In the fixed-effects regression of column 4 therefore,
Country/ opponent No No Yes Yes
only the test-match related workload is retained (which remains dummies
insignificant). Finally, note that the R-squared value in column 4
Year of the match No No No Yes
is significantly higher than it is in the previous three columns— dummies
the number of balls faced contributes most of the explanatory
Workload No No No Yes
power to observed variation in runs scored (also associated with
a significantly positive coefficient). Experience No No No Yes
When a batter starts his ODI career, his age-performance Bowler–type No No No Yes
relationship is positive. Overtime this performance-curve reaches ∗ , ∗∗ , ∗∗∗
report significance levels at the 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively. Robust standard errors
a peak and the performance dips thereafter. After the peak, are reported in the parentheses.
though the batter is more experienced, his physical capabilities
decline (Saikia et al., 2019). Based on our regression coefficients performance for fast bowlers is not qualitatively different from that
that suggest an inverted U-shaped relationship, it is possible to for spinners. Experience and workload (introduced in Table 1) in
determine the age at which this peak occurs by finding the age column 4 are treated in a manner similar to the previous set of
consistent with the global maximum of the performance-curve. regressions reported in Table 3. The results remain largely robust
According to our regressions for runs, the age at which the peak to the introduction of new variables and alternate specifications.
hits is between 27 and 30 years. Our findings are consistent with
a top international batter, Rahul Dravid’s self-assessment. He once
said (Ugra, 2012): “. . . I was playing my best cricket, at 28–29.” We 4.3 A final robustness check
next examine the results for bowlers.
So far, we have only looked at exactly one measure for batting
and bowling performances. We now extend our analysis to cover
strike rate (for batters) and economy rate (for bowlers). These
4.2 Effect of age on the performance of variables are defined below.12
bowlers
(Runs scored by batter i in match j)×100
Table 4 shows the effect of age on the number of wickets StrikeRateij = (Number of deliveries faced by batter i in match j)
claimed. We generally observe the same results. Age is associated
with a statistically significant positive coefficient and age-squared is
associated with a statistically significant negative coefficient.
EconomyRateij =
Based on this, we infer that on an average, bowlers attain a
Runs Conceded by bowler i in match j
peak at a younger age relative to batters—somewhere between (Number of deliveries bowled by bowler i in match j)/6
22 to 26 years. This might be because bowling (especially fast
bowling) requires speed, power and other skills that typically peak In the Appendix, we look at a joint-estimation of regressions
in an individual’s early twenties (Chomik and Jacinto, 2021; Noakes with runs and strike-rate as dependent variables on our exogenous
and Durandt, 2000). So, the complementarity between fitness and
experience is higher for bowlers than for batters. These results 12 Note that economy rate is defined as the average runs given away per
are also consistent with the economic framework developed in ‘over’ bowled. Since the definition of an “over” was standardized in the latter
Section 2. We also include a dummy variable called Fast-Bowler part of the 1970s (to be equal to six consecutive deliveries by a bowler), we
(= 0 for spinners) to account for bowler-type in column 4, but suitably modify our definition of economy-rate as above so that these figures
the insignificance of that variable indicates that the age of peak remain comparable for all bowlers in our study period.
in the Appendix, which remain consistent with the previous Selection of Sourav Ganguly in 1996 was a great decision.
cup in 1992. Note that his personal peak bowling was observed “It is the confidence of doing well consistently, and the
in 1975 (represented by the tangency in Figure 9—right before maturity gathered over the years. With experience you learn to
he turned 24), but under his leadership, the careers of younger trust your game more than you did as a youngster. I have looked
players like Wasim Akram and Waqar Yunis flourished—these at all areas of my game and worked hard on all of them. I have
were players who eventually went on to make great contributions really worked on my physical fitness.”
to Pakistani cricket. Wasim Akram was the “man of the match” in
the final match of world cup 1992.
Since Sourav Ganguly was primarily a batter, his performance
ICs are steeper than that of Imran Khan who was primarily a
bowler (the steepness of ICs can be compared between Figures 8, Data availability statement
9). Consistent with the discussion of Section 2 and the empirical
analyses that follow, we see that Imran Khan’s performance peaked The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article
at a younger age than Sourav Ganguly’s. What is interesting to note will be made available by the corresponding author, without
here is a key difference—Sourav Ganguly made a comeback before undue reservation.
his performance peaked in ODI cricket, but Imran Khan’s made
a comeback after his performance peaked in ODI cricket. Both of
these case studies are interesting in their own right.
The study shows that both batters and bowlers playing ODI
cricket attain a peak in their careers. This peak is where the trade- Author contributions
off between fitness and experience balance each other out. Bowlers
have a different performance trajectory in comparison with batters VJ: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis,
and retire at an earlier age (Brown et al., 2021). The physical Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Software, Validation,
demands required for a bowler are much more as compared to a Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. SB:
batter. Thus, the deterioration of fitness also happens quicker for Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Resources,
bowlers. Moreover in recent years, with more batter-favoring rules, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft,
the bowler’s margin for error has been reduced even further. This Writing – review & editing. PK: Conceptualization, Investigation,
has necessitated the bowlers to upscale their skills (Douglas and Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision,
Tam, 2010). Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing –
This research offers insights for cricket team selection review & editing.
committees. We make a case for a healthy mix of young and senior
players with aligned interests. The Australian cricket team that has
won the maximum number of world cups has clearly employed
an optimal mix of both youth and experience. More specifically, Funding
there has always been a significant proportion of players who have
previously won a world cup and a healthy proportion of younger The author(s) declare that no financial support was
players who are both fit and talented. For every subsequent world received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of
cup, the former newcomers among the previous world cup winners this article.
become the experienced seniors who guide the new players. This
story continues with the Australian team to date making it the
most successful ODI team (with six world cups) among all the
cricket-playing nations.
Performance involves the cognizance of the relevant trade- Acknowledgments
offs involved (Careau and Wilson, 2017). In the labor market,
senior employees may lack physical and mental fitness for mundane The authors are grateful to Ayush Sudarsan for assisting Vipra
daily jobs (Salthouse, 2012) which could be costly to employers. Jain with the herculean task of compiling/cleaning the entire
However, they possess the appropriate experience required for dataset from various sources over a period of several months—this
advisory or managerial roles and can also facilitate knowledge aided the quality of empirics done by Vipra Jain. The remaining
transfer. Similarly, senior cricket players, though less fit, can authors were responsible for the research idea and the theory.
provide the right performance space to younger players. They can The authors thank Marie Claire Villeval, Matthew Rablen, Ronald
transfer game-specific knowledge to the younger players to boost Wendner, Johan Gustafsson, Arti Kalro, Souvik Banerjee, Sarthak
their confidence by sharing their own experiences. One of the best Gaurav, Shubh Verma, Soumita Ganguly, and Pooja Sanjay Kadam
Indian batters, Rahul Dravid, in an interview with Sambit Bal in for their valuable inputs. Sincere gratitude is extended to two
2004 summarizes the above thought in the following words13 : referees who provided valuable feedback to give this research
article its final shape. This article is fondly dedicated to Kaushik
Basu, not only for the volume of his experience from which
each author of this article has immensely benefited, but also for
13 See https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/the-dravid-method-134464 the youthful enthusiasm with which he contributed ideas to this
for reference. research agenda.
Conflict of interest organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the
reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or
absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be endorsed by the publisher.
construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Supplementary material
Publisher’s note
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbhe.2024.
authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated 1492735/full#supplementary-material
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