FLOOD RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES AND

BUILDING USE CONVERSION IN METROPOLITAN

LAGOS, NIGERIA

SUBMITTED TO X

BY
SALU OLANREWAJU ABODUNRIN
MSC. HOUSING DEVELOPMENT AND
MANAGEMENT

URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING DEPARTMENT

FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN AND
MANAGEMENT

UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN

JANUARY 2025
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

There is a broad consensus that the global occurrence of flooding is changing at a significant
rate as a consequence of the increasing frequency of heavy rainstorms and storm surges,
which results from climate change and sea-level rising (Milly et al., 2002; Meijerink and
Dicke 2008; IPCC 2012). In urban areas, the growth of impervious surfaces further
exacerbates the severity of flooding, thereby increasing flood damage. This explains the
attention towards flood risk assessment and management particularly in large urban areas
where populations and critical infrastructures concentrate (Pelling, 2003; Merz et al., 2010;
Jha et al., 2012; Wilby and Keenan, 2012). Developing countries, although generally
considered to have low adaptive capacity to manage climate change impacts, are under
pressure to manage flood risks in the face of increasing flooding events. Flood risk
assessment and management is particularly important for urban areas in developing countries,
which are experiencing relatively rapid changes in urban patterns, population growth,
infrastructure and the natural environment. As these changes progress, the relationship
between people and the environment (built and natural) becomes even more complex and
more difficult to manage, as are the disasters that occur in these settings. Low-lying coastal
urban areas are highly vulnerable to flood risks because of their high populations and assets,
which underscore the need for flood risk assessment and management in these locations
(McGranahan et al., 2007; Nicholls et al., 2007a; UN-Habitat, 2011; Hallegatte et al., 2013;
Pelling and Blackburn, 2013). Flooding is one of the recurrent natural disasters in Nigeria
that poses huge threats to not just people but also critical infrastructures. In 2024, the Federal
Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation and the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency
(NIHSA) identified 31 states including the FCT as high-risk areas for significant flood
impacts.
The rapid urbanisation of Lagos, Nigeria, has led to significant changes in land use and
building typologies. However, the city’s geographical location and topography make it
particularly vulnerable to flooding, exacerbated by poor drainage systems, rising sea levels,
and climate change (Adelekan, 2010). Flooding poses severe threats to residential,
commercial, and mixed-use buildings, leading to property damage, economic losses, and
displacement (Agbola et al., 2012). Despite these challenges, opportunities exist to adapt

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urban spaces through building use conversion, a process of modifying existing structures to
serve new purposes. This adaptation not only addresses the immediate challenges of flooding
but also aligns with sustainable urban development goals (Abegunde, 2017). Flood risk
assessment and building use conversion in metropolitan Lagos, Nigeria, are critical issues due
to the city's vulnerability to flooding, exacerbated by climate change, urbanization, and
inadequate infrastructure. The assessment of flood risks involves understanding the causes
and impacts of flooding while building use conversion focuses on adapting urban spaces to
mitigate these risks.

A flood risk assessment (FRA) is an assessment of the risk of flooding from all flooding
mechanisms, and the identification of flood mitigation measures and should provide advice
on actions to be taken before and during a flood. Flood risk assessment aims to characterise
flooding in terms of water depth, duration and velocity (Merz et al., 2007). This is essential to
understand the sensitivities to flooding and the lack of resilience of the elements at risk
(Adger, 2006; Blaikie et al., 2014). Exposure is analysed to identify the spatial and temporal
characteristics of elements at risk (Barredo & Engelen, 2010; Gupta & Nair, 2010;
Mazzorana et al., 2012). The unexpected occurrence of flooding about issued flood warnings,
the spatial extent of the floodplain, the locations of residents relative to the source of flooding
and the nature of the houses in which residents live are also analysed within the framework of
exposure (Figure 1.1) (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2005). Additionally, current economic values
of exposed elements are estimated and used to assess economic flood risk based on fragility
or stage-damage functions (Smith, 1994; Dutta et al. 2001).

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Figure 1.1: Flood risk assessment essentials
n recent years, Lagos State has faced persistent threats from flooding and building collapses,
causing widespread devastation, property loss, and fatalities. The impact of floods generally
has caused devastating damage to critical infrastructures resulting from high rain intensities
for a long duration. Since 2023, the Lagos State government has intensified efforts to clear
illegal structures encroaching on waterways. These demolitions are aimed at reducing
flooding risks, improving water flow, and protecting lives and property. It becomes pertinent
to investigate existing flood risk assessment reports and determine their influence on building
use conversion to reduce the impact of inundation in flood-prone areas in metropolitan Lagos.
1.2 Statement of Research Problem

While many flood events in Lagos have been reported by the local media, only major flood
disasters have been documented by global flood/disaster observatories. Recent flood events
with severe impacts are those of 2010 in Ikorodu and the widespread floods of July 2011 and
July 2012. In July 2011, heavy rainfall which lasted about 17 hours precipitated a total of
233.3mm of rainfall – the equivalent of the amount expected for the entire month. About 25
people were reported killed as a consequence of the floods while 5,393 persons were
displaced from their homes (IFRC, 2011).

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The total cost of the 2011 flood, in terms of goods and properties, was estimated at N30
billion by the Nigerian Insurance Industry (2013). Substantial properties lost to flood are not
insured and are owned by middle-class and poor residents, some of whom live in informal
settlements. Also, in June 2012, 216.3mm of rainfall was recorded in a single rainstorm
event. The resulting flood caused widespread and severe damage to infrastructure, roads,
bridges, rail tracks, houses and other properties, and claimed seven lives (Ikusemoran, M.,
Anthony, U. & Maryah, 2012; Adelekan, 2016; Olatunji & Yoade, 2022). The livelihoods
and economic activities of residents were also affected by floods. The floods of 2010 which
had severe impacts in Ikorodu were a result of the release of water from the Oyan dam
upstream on the course of the Ogun River. As a consequence, the problem of flooding in
Lagos is increasingly raising serious concerns among the general public and government.

The effects of flooding in Nigeria, especially Lagos State, are at an alarming rate that if
preventive measures are not taken very urgently, future occurrences might be too costly. A
study on the impact of flooding on residential property values, focussing on the Ajegunle-
Ikorodu Local Government Area of Lagos State, shows the effects of flooding on human
lives and property values. The effects of floods on countries, social life and the economy
have been so great that it attracts worldwide attention. Yet, despite the inherent dangers that
accompany flooding, man continues to carry out their daily activities, erecting properties in
flood plains and renting accommodation in flood areas (Lawanson & Odunbaku, 2017.
Ajegunle-Ikorodu is uniquely prone to perennial flooding arising from rainfall and water
released from the Oyan Dam. The findings of the research show that flooding affects property
values but most residents prefer to remain in the area despite the menace of flood. Aderogba
(2012) wrote that the Lagos metropolis kept on experiencing increases in area extent and
population size that are adversely affecting the physical environment and the drainage system
in particular.

The damages caused by a flood might increase as more people settle on vulnerable flood
plains and block drainage channels. Some indications should there be any slightly heavier
rainstorm for a relatively long period, the incidence of flooding will be in greater dimensions
and more disastrous. Research and investment should focus on the mapping of flood-prone
areas for planning and physical planning of upcoming suburbs should conform with those in
existence and the natural landscape (Jonkman, Bočkarjova, Kok, & Bernardini, 2008;
Oyekale, 2013).
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In an attempt to find a way of curbing flood in Nigeria, Lagos State in particular, many
scholars have endeavoured to find out the reasons why flood occurs and the reasons they
proffered are true of Lagos. According to Dutta et al (2013), the reasons for flooding are
essentially attributed to two major factors which are the climatological and anthropogenic
factors. Nkeki, Henah & Ojeh (2013) wrote that the Lagos metropolis kept on experiencing
an increase in area extent and population size that is adversely affecting the physical
environment and the drainage system in particular. The damage flood might cause tends to
increase as more people settle on vulnerable flood plains and block drainage channels. There
are indications that should there be any slightly heavier rainstorm for a relatively long period
of time, the incidence of flooding will be in greater dimensions and more disastrous.
Tightly linked with the menace of flooding is waste management. Improper disposal of waste
products and inadequate methods of waste collection could result in the display of waste on
roadsides, beside major drains, and when it rains, this waste is washed into the drainage
system and ultimately into the water courses which would lead to blockage of drains as well
as pollution of Lagos Lagoons and creeks. Faced with all these, the Lagos state authorities
have put several measures in place that attempt to tackle those difficulties. For example,
several initiatives, ranging from community self-help programmes to a World Bank loan for
drainage improvements, are being implemented. These include the drain dock programme in
2000, the emergency flood abatement gang, and the Lagos Metropolitan Development and
Governance project. However, these have only had minimal effects or none at all (Adelekan,
2011; Chormanski Okruszko, Ignar, Batelaan & Rebel, 2011; Mayomi, Dami & Maryah,
2013; Komolafe et al. 2014; Rose et al., 2014; Alves, Angnuureng, Morand & Almar, 2020).
Causes of flooding have been considered from diverse angles by researchers. Olajide and
Lawanson (2014) established that flood is a natural phenomenon, caused mainly by natural
events; however, the incidence of floods and its associated risks have been exacerbated by
human-induced activities. Human activities such as deforestation, wetland reclamation,
greenhouse gas emission, poor planning, improper development and poorly designed
infrastructure, particularly drainage systems, are capable of increasing flood events and
vulnerability to the associated risks. In the explanation provided by Agbonkhese et al (2014),
flooding is not totally a natural phenomenon but an environmental hazard. It becomes a
hazard when it impinges unfavourably on human activities as it frequently does because of
the affinity which man tends to have for flood plains and coastal locations. They thereby,
highlight five factors that often result in flooding. These include heavy rainfall synchronizing

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with spills of rivers; main rivers backing up the water in their tributaries; inadequate and
inefficient drainage of low-lying and flat areas to the overflow; ponding back of stream flow
by rising tides, particularly during spring tide conditions; and peak floods occurring at the
same time in a main river and its tributaries. Okoko (2008) submitted that flooding is
essentially attributed to two major factors which are the climatological and anthropogenic
factors. The climatological factors include prolonged rainfall, an increase in sea level and
strong winds in the coastal areas.
These three factors show how climate change indirectly aggravates flooding by altering the
pattern of flooding in flood-prone areas. The anthropogenic factors have to do with man's
interaction with his environment in the form of urbanization, deforestation, shoreline
modification and deposition of sand and silt in drainage channels. Other causes established by
Okoko (2008) include dam breaking, improper waste disposal and development of buildings
on the waterways. Existing buildings in flood-prone areas of Lagos are often unsuitable for
continued occupation in their current use. Many structures suffer repeated damage, leading to
reduced economic viability, safety concerns, and increased maintenance costs. While
building use conversion has been explored globally as a solution to similar challenges, its
application in Lagos remains under-researched. This study seeks to address this gap by
investigating how building use conversion can mitigate flood risks while optimizing land use.

1.3 Research Questions

1. Are there flood risk mitigation strategies that address building use conversion for
flood-resilience in Lagos?
2. What are the characteristics of buildings in flood-prone areas in the Lagos metropolis?

3. What adaptive reuse strategies can mitigate flood risks and optimize building utility?

1.4 Aim and Objectives

This study aims to investigate flood mitigation strategies that facilitate conversion of building
use to enhance flood resilience and optimise land use in metropolitan Lagos. Specific
objectives include:

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 1. Evaluate flood mitigation strategies in metropolitan Lagos,
2. Investigate the characteristics of buildings in flood-prone areas in metropolitan Lagos
3. Identify buildings that have been converted from one use to another in flood-prone
areas in metropolitan Lagos,
4. Evaluating the socio-economic and environmental implications of building use
conversion in these areas.

5. Proposing adaptive reuse strategies that enhance resilience to flooding while

supporting urban development goals.

1.5 Hypothesis of the Study

Building use conversion does not significantly reduce the vulnerability of buildings to
flooding in metropolitan Lagos.

Building use conversion significantly enhances resilience and sustainability in flood-prone

areas of Lagos.

1.6 Significance / Justification of the Study

This study will contribute to sustainable urban development by providing insights into how
building use conversion can mitigate flood risks and improve property utility. Policymakers,
urban planners, and real estate investors can use the findings to make informed decisions that
balance economic and environmental concerns.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study will focus on flood-prone areas within Metropolitan Lagos, including Lekki,
Victoria Island, Ikoyi, and Ajah. It will examine residential, commercial, and mixed-use
buildings affected by flooding and explore feasible conversion strategies.

1.8 Research Methodology

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1.8.1 Research Design: The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative
and quantitative research methods to ensure comprehensive analysis.

1.8.2 Data Types and Sources

1.8.2.1 Primary Data: Data will be collected through surveys, interviews, and field
observations.

1.8.2.2 Secondary Data: Secondary data will include journal articles, government reports,
and historical records on flooding and housing in Lagos State.

1.8.3 Instrument for Data Collection: Questionnaires, structured interview guides, and
observation checklists will be used for data collection.

1.8.4 Sample Frame: The sample frame will consist of households, local authorities, and
housing professionals in the coastal zones of Lagos State.

1.8.5 Sample Size: A purposive sampling technique will be used to select 200 respondents
from the affected communities.

1.8.6 Data Analysis and Presentation: Data will be analysed using statistical tools for
quantitative data and thematic analysis for qualitative data. The findings will be presented
using tables, charts, and narrative descriptions.

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CHAPTER TWO:

THEORETICAL/CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK & LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1.1 Conceptual Framework: The study is anchored on the concept of sustainable housing,
focusing on the interplay between environmental factors and housing maintenance.

2.1.2 Theoretical Framework: The theoretical framework includes the Resilience Theory
and the Systems Approach, which emphasize adaptive strategies and the interconnectivity of
housing systems.

2.2 Literature Review A review of relevant literature will cover topics such as:

 Flooding and its causes in coastal regions.

 The impact of flooding on housing facilities.

 Mitigation strategies for housing maintenance.

2.3 Identified Gap in the Literature: Existing studies focus primarily on the causes and
impacts of flooding but provide limited insights into sustainable maintenance strategies for
housing facilities in flood-prone areas.

CHAPTER THREE: THE STUDY AREA

3.1 Geographical Information: The study area encompasses the coastal zones of Lagos
State, characterized by low-lying terrain and proximity to water bodies.

3.2 Contextual Background to the Study: Lagos State is Nigeria's economic hub, with a
high population density in its coastal areas. The region’s vulnerability to flooding stems from
rapid urbanization, inadequate infrastructure, and climate change.

3.3 Justification for the Study Area: The coastal zones are selected due to their frequent
exposure to flooding and the critical need for effective housing maintenance strategies.

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3.4 Expected Outcomes: The study aims to provide actionable recommendations for
improving housing resilience and maintenance practices in flood-prone areas.

3.5 Conclusion: The observation will provide a complete analysis of ways flooding affects
housing upkeep in Lagos's coastal zones and suggest sensible solutions to improve the
resilience of housing facilities. The findings are predicted to guide policymakers, city
planners, and housing stakeholders in formulating effective strategies for flood control and
housing upkeep.

References Key references will consist of scholarly articles, government reports on flooding
and urban planning in Lagos, and relevant case studies on flood management in coastal areas.

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