2| REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. BACKGROUND.....................................................................................................................................................................1

2. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK...................................................................................................................................2

3. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE SURVEY..........................................................................................................................3

3.1 PRICES OF KEY AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES..................................................................................................3

3.2 EXPECTATIONS OF PRICES OF KEY FOOD ITEMS...............................................................................................4

3.3 FACTORS AFFECTING RETAIL AND WHOLESALE PRICES ..................................................................................5

3.4 OUTPUT PERFORMANCE AND EXPECTATIONS...................................................................................................6

3.4.1 OUTPUT PERFORMANCE ACROSS FOOD CROPS...................................................................................6

3.4.2 MARKET SUPPLY EXPECTATIONS...............................................................................................................6

3.4.3 EXPECTATIONS ABOUT OUTPUT AND ACREAGE ................................................................................. 6

3.5 EXPECTATIONS ABOUT OVERALL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ......................................................................7

3.6 FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ......................................................................................9

3.7 USE OF FARM INPUTS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ................................................................................9

3.7.1 CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH ACCESS TO FARM INPUTS.............................................................10

3.7.2 ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZED FERTILIZER.......................................................................... 11

3.8 FACTORS AFFECTING MARKETING/ SALE OF PRODUCE ...............................................................................11

3.9 ACCESS TO CREDIT FACILITIES IN AGRICULTURE ...........................................................................................12

4. VIEWS ON HOW TO IMPROVE THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR......................................................................................14

5. CONCLUSION.....................................................................................................................................................................14

ANNEXES.....................................................................................................................................................................................16

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 |1

1. BACKGROUND
Agriculture plays an important role in Kenya’s More specifically, the survey focuses on the following:
economy as a source of livelihoods, employment i. Indicative prices of select key agricultural food
and economic growth. The sector is a key source of items and the general price expectations.
raw materials with forward and backward linkages ii. Assessment of output and acreage of select food
with the other sectors of the economy such as items, and expectations.
manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade. iii. Access to, usage and barriers to farm inputs for
Additionally, developments in the agriculture sector agricultural production.
have implications for Kenya’s food security. More iv. Factors affecting agricultural production and
importantly, agriculture is an important source of marketing/sale of farm produce.
foreign currency through exports of agricultural v. Indicative information on access to and use of
commodities, notably tea, coffee and horticultural credit facilities.
crops such as vegetables, fruits and cut flowers. v. Suggestions on how to improve agricultural
The sector plays an important role as major source production.
of income, particularly to rural households where
agriculture is the main source of livelihoods.. This report presents results of a survey undertaken
Domestically, the performance of the sector has during the period of January 13-17, 2025. Results show
implications for food inflation and therefore overall an uptick in prices of most vegetables, cereals and
inflation. cereal products in January 2025 relative to December
2024. Food items whose prices were found to have
Based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data increased in January 2025 relative to December 2024
provided by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics included maize flour-loose, fresh unpacketed cow
(KNBS) for the third quarter of 2024, the Agriculture, milk, spinach, kale/sukuma wiki, tomatoes, carrots
Forestry, and Fishing sector is estimated to have and onions. The increase to a large extent reflects
grown by 4.2 per cent compared to 5.1 per cent the seasonal factors associated with January which
growth in the third quarter of 2023. The growth is usually a dry month and the impact of the October-
was mainly supported by the favourable weather December 2024 short rain season which was reported
conditions that prevailed in the first three quarters of to have been inadequate in some regions. In some
2024 and government interventions particularly the instances, sampled farmers reported not receiving
provision of subsidised fertiliser. The good weather enough rainfall at critical stage of crop development.
supported growing of key crops such as sugarcane Prices of other food commodities were found to have
and milk production. Cane deliveries increased to remained stable relative to December 2024. These
2,523.5 thousand metric tonnes in the third quarter of include sugar, wheat flour, bread and packeted milk.
2024, from 874.0 thousand metric tonnes in the third
quarter of 2023. Over the same period, milk intake Expectations on output and acreage are largely
by processors increased to 224.1 million litres from positive as established in previous surveys with a
210.4 million litres. There was, however, a 12.2 per large proportion of sampled farmers expecting an
cent decline in tea production from 138,771.6 metric increase in output and acreage in the next season.
tonnes in the third quarter of 2023 to 121,868.3 metric However, the expectations for positive increases in
tonnes in the third quarter of 2024. both acreage and output were somewhat nuanced in
January 2025 relative to findings in November 2024.
Given the significant impact of developments in the This moderation largely reflects farmers’ experience
agriculture sector on the supply and prices of key food in relation to the October-December 2024 rainfall
items in the consumer price index (CPI), the Monetary outcome which affected some crops such as beans.
Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Kenya
(CBK) continuously monitors developments in the Optimism on agriculture performance and overall
sector through a survey conducted in select regions economic performance remained high though
to gather information on indicative prices of basic relatively low compared to November 2024.
commodities, output and expected trends.

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 |1

 2. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK
The January 2025 survey, like previous surveys, Nyeri, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, Makueni and
gathered information on wholesale and retail prices of Molo and some parts of Western Kenya.
select food items, expectations regarding changes in
prices and output, and factors that affect agricultural The coverage and scope of the survey has continued
production. The survey drew respondents from to expand over time. The data was collected using
select wholesale and retail markets and select farms face to face interviews with retailers, wholesalers and
in key food basket regions. These include Nairobi farmers in select markets and farms. A total of 294
Metropolitan area, and neighbouring counties such respondents were sampled out of which farmers and
as Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos. Other areas retailers accounted for 46 percent and 40 percent,
covered included Naivasha, Gilgil, Nakuru, Narok, respectively, while wholesalers accounted for 15
Bomet, Kericho Kisumu, Mombasa, Kisii, Eldoret, percent (Figure 1a and 1b).
Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Isebania, Meru,

Figure 1a: Sample composition (Percent) Figure 1b: Farm categorization (Percent)

29% 50%
46% 40%

21%

15% Small scale (Below 5 acres)

Medium Scale (5 -12 acres)

Large Scale (Above 12 acres)

Retail Wholesale Farm

Analysis of the information collected was undertaken The BOO gets the net positions of responses and,
using both quantitative and qualitative approaches, therefore, helps shed light on the direction where, on
with findings presented in form of summary tables balance, most of the responses are concentrated. It is
and charts. The analysis was undertaken using important to note that a respondent’s expectations
averages, percentages and Balance of Opinion about inflation or economic performance could
(BOO). The BOO is a key tool used in the analysis to vary depending on the time horizon, for instance, a
show on a net basis the expected directional change respondent could expect inflation to increase one
in relation to variables of interest such as retail prices month ahead but decrease three months ahead, and
of select food commodities, acreage under crop vice versa. The same applies to expectations about
and farm produce/output. The BOO is generally economic performance.
defined as the difference between the proportion
of respondents having expressed a positive opinion The survey also sought to understand how
and the proportion of respondents having expressed respondents expected the agriculture sector to
a negative opinion divided by the total number of perform in the next three months and one year
respondents. The computation of BOO facilitates ahead. This is the third time the question was being
conversion of qualitative responses into quantifiable asked, having been introduced during the September
values. 2024 survey. The objective is to have separate
expectations for agriculture sector performance
For instance, with regard to inflation, the survey sought and overall economic growth since the latter
respondents’ views about whether they expected encompasses the industrial and service sectors, in
inflation to increase, remain unchanged or decrease addition to agriculture.
in the next one month and three months ahead.

2| REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

3. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE SURVEY

This section highlights the key findings from the the agricultural sector to improve or remain
January 2025 Survey, as follows: unchanged in January 2025 compared to
November 2024. However, on a net basis,
i. Retail prices of some vegetables were higher in expectations were positive.
January 2025, compared to December 2024, viii. The proportion of respondents optimistic about
largely reflecting seasonal factors. overall economic performance in the next three
ii. On balance, respondents expect prices of select months and the next one year moderated but
food items to increase in February 2025, largely remained high in January 2025 compared
driven by seasonal factors. to November 2024. However, on a net basis,
iii. The proportion of respondents expecting overall expectations were positive.
inflation to increase in the next one month and
next three months increased in January 2025 3.1 Prices of key agricultural
compared to December 2024. commodities
iv. Over 60 percent of sampled farmers reported to
have accessed the subsidized fertilizer with most
Prices of green maize declined while those of some
farmers reporting positive impact on output.
vegetable items such as spinach and kales/sukuma
v. The most used inputs are inorganic fertiliser
wiki recorded modest increases in January 2025
and pesticides/herbicides with 79 percent and
compared to December 2024, mainly reflecting
47 percent of sampled farmers, respectively,
seasonal factors.
reporting that they were the most important
inputs in production.
Price increases were also noted for a few non-
vi. Expectations about change in acreage and
vegetable items particularly processed food items
output of key food items remains largely positive.
such as sugar and maize flour (Figure 2).
vii. There was a modest decrease in the proportion
of respondents expecting the performance of

Figure 2: Monthly changes in retail prices of select food items (Percent)

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Broken White Rice (Aromatic or Non Aromatic) (2 Kg)

Green Maize (1 Kg)

Traditional Vegetables (1 Kg)

Brown Rice (1 Kg)

Kale - Sukuma Wiki (1 Kg)

Peas (Unpeeled Garden/minji) (1 Kg)

Aromatic Unbroken Rice (Pishori/Basmati e.t.c) (2 Kg)
Non Aromatic (Unbroken) White Rice (2 Kg)

Maize Grain - Loose (1 Kg)

Maize Flour - Loose (1 Kg)

Wheat Flour - White (2 Kg)

Brown Bread (400 Gram)

Green Maize - Loose (1 Kg)

Maize Flour - Sifted (2 Kg)

Fortified Maize Flour (2 Kg)

White Bread (400 Gram)

Fresh packeted cow milk (500 Mililitre)

Cabbages (1 Kg)
Tomatoes (1 Kg)
Green grams (1 Kg)
Beans (1 Kg)

Wheat Flour - Brown (2 Kg)

Sugar (1 Kg)
Fresh unpacketed cow milk/ Fresh Cream(1 Litre)

Cooking Oil (Salad) (1 Litre)

Cooking Fat (500 Gram)

Spinach (1 Kg)

Carrots (1 Kg)
Onions - Bulbs (1 Kg)
Potatoes (Irish) (1 Kg)

Dec-24 Jan-25

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 |3

 3.2 Expectations of prices of key food
items expected to increase in February 2025, mainly
Balance of opinion (BOO) on expected price changes reflecting the impact of inadequate rainfall in
shows prices of select cereals and vegetables are October-December 2024 in some regions.

Figure 3: Balance of opinion on expected price changes for cereals and related
products in the next one month (Percent of respondents)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10% Maize Flour - Loose

Brown Rice
Aromatic Unbroken Rice
Maize Grain - Loose

Maize Flour - Sifted

(Aromatic or Non Aromatic)

Beans

Brown Bread
Green grams

Green Maize - Loose

Green Maize

Wheat Flour - Brown

White Bread
Wheat Flour - White

Fortified Maize Flour

Non Aromatic (Unbroken)

(Pishori/Basmati e.t.c)

Broken White Rice

White Rice
Cereals and Related Products
December 2024 survey January 2025 survey

Respondents expect prices of some cereals and broken white rice are expected to remain more or
related products to record modest price increases less unchanged in February 2025 (Figure 3).
in February 2025 relative to January 2025, mainly
reflecting expected impact of inadequate rains in The BOO on expected price changes shows prices
some regions during the short rain season. Expected of milk and milk products are expected to remain
price changes for various varieties of rice are mixed, unchanged while some vegetables are expected
with an expected modest price increase for aromatic to experience a modest uptick in prices, largely
and non-aromatic while prices of brown rice and reflecting seasonality (Figure 4)

Figure 4: Balance of opinion on expected price changes for vegetables, non-

vegetables and animal products (Percent of respondents)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Spinach

Cooking Oil (Salad)

Kale - Sukuma Wiki

Tomatoes
Potatoes

Cabbages

Fresh unpacketed cow

Fresh packeted cow milk

Cooking Fat
Peas (Unpeeled Garden)

Traditional Vegetables

Onions - Leeks and Bulbs

Carrots

Sugar
milk/ Fresh Cream

Vegetables Milk & milk Non-Vegetables

products
December 2024 survey January 2025 survey

4| REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

Prices of kales/sukuma wiki, traditional vegetables, level in the economy (inflation). The proportion of
cabbages, spinach, tomatoes and potatoes are respondents expecting overall inflation to increase
expected to be relatively higher in February 2025 in the next one month and next three months was
compared to January 2025, some reflecting relatively higher in January 2025 compared to
seasonality factors while others reflect impact of December 2024 (Figure 5). Those who expected
inadequate October-December 2024 rainfall. an increase mostly cited the possibility of reduced
market supplies due to inadequate October –
On balance, sampled respondents expect prices of December 2024 rainfall in some regions and the
sugar and cooking oil (salad) to increase slightly in possibility of oil price increases due to uncertainties
February 2025, reflecting developments in the global surrounding the Middle East conflict. Others were
market, where prices of these items have edged up in concerned about the noted modest increases in
the recent past. However, the price of cooking fat is prices of select essential food items in the global
expected to remain unchanged (Figure 4). market particularly processed food items such as
sugar, cooking fat and vegetable oil.
In addition to getting information about the expected
changes in prices of select food items, the January Respondents expected stable exchange rate and
2025 survey also sought respondents’ views about stability in pump prices to moderate inflation.
expected changes in the general consumer price

Figure 5: Inflation expectations (Percent of respondents)

70%
65%

60% 58%

50%
50% 47%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Dec-24 Jan-25
In the next ONE month In the next THREE months

3.3 Factors affecting retail and long-term mean for the month. This may also have
wholesale prices reflected the impact of inadequate rainfall in some
The January 2025 survey, like previous surveys, regions (Figure 6 and Annex Figure 17). The
sought to establish the factors that influence proportion that reported supply chain disruptions to
retail and wholesale prices of select food items. be a factor in driving up retail prices remained more
The proportion that reported transport costs as or less unchanged. The impact of ‘distance to market’
a factor influencing retail prices declined slightly increased in January 2025 as farmers reported to
to 83 percent in January 2025, from 86 percent in be travelling longer distances in search of supplies
November 2024. This possibly reflects the benefit due to inadequate October – December 2024 rainfall
of relatively long period of pump price stability. and the hot weather conditions in January 2025
However, the proportion citing the impact of weather which had affected growing of some fast-maturing
conditions (floods, drought) increased to 86 percent vegetables. There were also concerns that labour
in January 2025 from 62 percent in November costs were edging up. In January 2025, 64 percent of
2024. This was influenced to a large extent by the the sampled farmers cited labour costs as a key factor
higher temperatures in January 2025 relative to the driving prices compared to 43 percent in November
2024.

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 |5

 Figure 6: Factors affecting retail prices (Percent of respondents)
90% 86% 86%
83%
80%
80%
75%
71%
70% 68%
64% 66%
62% 63% 64%
60%
52%
50%
43%
40%

30%

20%
12%
10% 7%

0%

November 2024 survey January 2025 survey

3.4 Analysis of output changes in output and acreage in the next harvest
3.4.1 Output performance and expectations pointed to an increase. The favourable rainfall in the
This section describes the outcomes of the January first three quarters of 2024 had raised water table
2025 agriculture survey regarding expected changes thereby supporting farmers who rely on irrigation
in indicative output and acreage for select crops. This especially those who use water from boreholes.
is important because an increase in output, if realised, Even for those that rely on rain-fed agriculture, the
has implications for market supplies, and hence, on expectation that rainfall in March-May 2025 season
food inflation which in turn affects overall inflation. would be favourable had motivated them to consider
Likewise, an increase in acreage has implications for increasing acreage. Besides, as was observed in
output, holding constant the influence of any other the November 2024 survey, previous harvests had
factors relevant in determining output. provided many farmers with own seeds which partly
reduced the input cost burden. Aditionally, the
3.4.2 Output performance across food crops January 2025 survey showed that farmers expect
Sampled farmers in the January 2025 survey to increase acreage for various crops such as kales/
observed that output and acreage of most crops sukuma wiki, cabbages, spinach, potatoes and maize
were, on a net basis, expected to increase, largely (Figure 7a & 7b). However, beans farmers were
driven by the expectation that the March-May 2025 less optimistic about increasing acreage in the next
long rains season would be favourable and the planting season. This was primarily influenced by
expected continuation of government measures that failure of rainfall during the flowering stage of beans
have positively impacted yields. A notable initiative which in some regions had adversely affected the
in this regard is the subsidised fertiliser programme. crop. Consistent with finding in previous surveys,
Some farmers underscored the adoption of smart the decision to change acreage was not just a
agriculture farming methods which, despite being function of expected rainfall. It was also influenced
limited in scope, was gaining traction and a potential by other considerations such as the need for crop
source of farm incomes. rotation, expected demand conditions, availability
of affordable and quality seeds and the cost of land
3.4.3 Expectations about output and acreage preparation for the specific crop.
On balance, farmers’ expectations about likely

6| REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

 Figure 7(a): Balance of opinion on expected acreage for select crops (Percent of
respondents)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Spinach

Sugarcane
Cabbages

Tomatoes

Maize

Wheat
Kales (Sukuma wiki)

Onions

Potatoes

Carrots

Beans

Other
Nov-24 Jan-25

Figure 7(b): Balance of opinion on expected output for select crops (Percent of
respondents)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Spinach
Cabbages

Tomatoes

Sugarcane
Wheat
Kales (Sukuma wiki)

Onions

Potatoes

Maize
Carrots

Beans

Other

Nov-24 Jan-25

3.5 Expected performance of the performance to improve in the next three months
agriculture sector and the overall remained high at 75 percent though slightly lower
economy compared to 87 percent in November 2024. Likewise,
the proportion of respondents who expect an
Respondents were asked to indicate how they expect
improvement in the next one year remained high at
the agriculture sector to evolve in the next three
74 percent in January 2025, though lower compared
months as well as one year ahead, and the reasons
to 81 percent in November 2024 (Figure 8a).
underpinning their expectations. That is, whether
they expected the sector’s performance to remain
The moderation in optimism in January 2025 was
unchanged, to improve or to worsen. Analysis of
partly informed by seasonal factors given that
January 2025 data shows that the proportion of
January is climatologically a dry month, as well
sampled farmers who expect agriculture sector
the impact of the October-December 2024 rainfall

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 |7

 outcome. Optimism in both November 2024 and percent of the sampled respondents expecting an
January 2025 surveys, however, remained high on improvement in overall economic performance in
average, with more than 70 percent expecting an the next three months, though lower compared to
improvement in the sector’s performance both three the proportion in November 2024 survey. Likewise,
months and one year ahead. optimism about expected economic performance
one year ahead remained high at 58 percent though
In addition to gathering respondents’ views about a moderation compared to 71 percent in November
how they expected agriculture sector to evolve, 2024 (Figure 8b). The decline was partly influenced
the survey also sought to find out how optimistic by seasonality given that January is generally a dry
the respondents were about overall economic month, as well as the impact of subdued short rains
performance. Optimism remained high with 59 noted in some regions.

Figure 8 (a): Proportion of respondents optimistic about agriculture sector

performance (Percent of respondents)
90%
87%
85%
81%
80% 78%
76%
75% 74%
75%

70%

65%
September 2024 survey November 2024 survey January 2025 survey

In the next THREE months In the next ONE year

Figure 8(b): Proportion of respondents optimistic about overall economic

performance (Percent of respondents)
80% 75% 71% 76% 71%
59% 58%
60%

40%

20%

0%
September 2024 survey November 2024 survey January 2025 survey

In the next THREE months In the next ONE year

8| REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

3.6 Factors affecting agricultural in January 2025 from 83 percent in November 2024
production (Figure 9). As discussed in another section of this
Pests and diseases continue to be a key factor report, the largest share of farmers’ loans is used to
affecting agricultural production. In the January purchase inputs. It was noted that the price of inputs
2025 and November 2024 surveys, the proportion such as seeds, fertiliser and pesticides/herbicides
of farmers who reported pests and diseases to be a was a key factor affecting agricultural production.
factor influencing agricultural production remained The cost of certified hybrid seeds had increased
significantly high at 94 percent. The second most cited over time which forced farmers to either purchase
factor was the high cost of inputs with the proportion fewer quantities of certified high-quality seeds, use
of respondents increasing marginally to 84 percent own seeds or purchase cheap seeds of questionable
quality.

Figure 9: Factors affecting agricultural production (Percent of respondents)

100% 94% 94%
90% 84% 83% 84%
78%
80% 74% 77%
70% 69% 68%
70% 61%
60% 54% 51%
50% 47%
40% 32% 33%
30% 23%
19% 17%
20%
10%
0%
Transport costs

Land size

Russia/Ukraine war
Weather conditions

Input prices e.g. seeds, fertilizer

Land preparation

Pests and diseases

Labour cost e.g. wages

Technology

Market demand

November 2024 survey January 2025 survey

3.7 Use of farm inputs in agricultural The government policy of subsidised fertiliser
production programme is, therefore, well targeted as it seeks to
reduce the cost burden on the most used farm input.
The January 2025 findings on the type of inputs Fertiliser use is critical during planting as well as for
commonly used by farmers and their intensity was top dressing. Use of pesticides is also widespread
much similar to findings of previous surveys. The especially in the growing of carrots, potatoes,
most used input is inorganic fertiliser with 79 percent tomatoes, cabbages, onions, spinach, and kales/
of sampled farmers in January 2025 reporting to use sukuma wiki to control for various crop diseases at
the input (Figure 10). various stages of the crop cycle. However, use of
manure remains limited.

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 |9

 Figure 10: Significance of farm inputs in agricultural production in January 2025
survey (Percent of respondents)
100% 4% 1% 3% 6%
90% 18% 18%
80%
70% 60% 52%
48% 27%
64%
60%
50%
40% 79%
30% 20% 55%
20% 47% 45%
33%
10% 20%
0%

Labour
Manure (organic fertilizer)

Inorganic fertilizer

Pesticides/Herbicides

Other
Mechanical Equipment/Tools
Important Moderately Important Less Important

3.7.1 Challenges associated with access to farm the highest number of sampled farmers as a key
inputs factor limiting farmers’ access to inputs. Other key
Farmers face various challenges in the quest for barriers are lack of finances and low quality of inputs
farm inputs. In the January 2025 survey, similar to (Figure 11). The problem of low quality of inputs is
previous surveys, respondents were asked to indicate also related to lack of finances because high quality
the binding constraints in getting farm inputs. The inputs tend to be costly.
high cost of inputs has consistently been cited by

Figure 11: Factors limiting access to farm inputs (Percent of respondents)

100% 94%
90% 87% 88%

80% 73% 74% 72% 73%

70% 65%
60% 55% 58%

50% 46% 47%

40%
29%
30% 25% 26%

20% 13% 15%

10%
10%
0%
High cost of inputs Limited knowledge Poor quality of Lack of finances High cost of Other (SPECIFY)
of inputs inputs mechanization
Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25

10 | REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

3.7.2 Access to Government subsidized fertiliser as they preferred to purchase fertiliser of
fertilizer their own choice. In other instances, some farmers
The proportion of respondents who reported to have reported that they were not aware that subsidized
accessed government subsidized fertilizer stood at fertilizer was available at a reasonable price. There
69 percent in January 2025, the highest in the last were also some farmers who cited the complications
four surveys (Figure 12). Respondents who reported around the logistics of access and the difficulties
to have been unable to benefit from the subsidised involved given that the demand for the subsidised
fertiliser programme cited a number of reasons such fertiliser was too high relative to supply. In other
as not being able to travel to the fertiliser collection instances, priority was given to farmers who were
centres owing to the long distances involved. Similar members of a farming group, making it difficult for
to findings in previous surveys, others reported that those who did not belong to any farming group to
they did not bother to register for the subsidised benefit from the subsidised fertiliser.

Figure 12: Access to subsidized fertilizer (Percent of respondents)

80%
68% 69%
70%
60% 58%
60%

50%
40% 42%
40%
32% 31%
30%

20%

10%

0%
July 2024 survey September 2024 survey November 2024 survey January 2025 survey
Yes No

3.8 Factors affecting marketing/sale of of shortages occasioned by factors such as drought

farm produce or floods, prices tend to increase drastically. Some
With regard to factors critically affecting marketing/ farmers suggested that a mechanism be put in place
sale of farm produce, the single most critical factor is to stabilise prices of farm produce. This is discussed
high price fluctuations which was reported by over 80 in section 4 of the report.
percent of sampled farmers in both January 2025 and
November 2024 surveys (Figure 13). This problem The share of respondents who reported price
is particularly common for food commodities such distortion by middlemen as a concern remained
as tomatoes, cabbages, onions and maize whose almost unchanged at 68 percent in January 2025.
prices tend to vary widely from season to season. However, there was a notable decrease in the
As reported in previous surveys, price fluctuations proportion citing poor roads as a challenge in
are common because most farmers tend to harvest January 2025 (64 percent) compared to November
at the same time thereby flooding markets with the 2024 (36 percent) (Figure 13). This is not surprising
same produce. In view of the increased supply during given that January is usually a dry month unlike
harvest relative to demand, prices can decline to November rain season during which some roads
abnormally low levels. Conversely, during periods become impassable.

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 | 11

 Figure 13: Factors affecting marketing/sale of farm produce (Percent of respondents)
100%
87%84%
90%
80%
69%68%
70% 64%
60% 55%
48% 49% 46%
50% 43% 45% 42%41%
36% 36% 37%
40% 31%
30% 23%
20%
10% 7% 7%
0%
Distance from markets

Poor road infrastructure

High price fluctuations

Limited demand

Delayed collection of farm

Poor quality of output

Competition from imports

Lack of information about

Price distortion by

Other
middlemen

markets
produce

Nov-24 Jan-25

3.9 Access to credit facilities in respectively. Banks, SACCOs, digital lenders and
agriculture familiy and friends remain key financiers of farm
Borrowing by farmers to finance agricultre activity activity (Figure 14). The tighening of Hustler fund
has generally been low. However, there has been borrowing conditions may have contributed to the
a gradual increase in the proportion of farmers reduction in borrowing from the Hustler Fund. The
reporting to have borrowed to finance farm activity proportion of farmers who reported to have obtained
in the last three surveys. This proportion increased Hustler loans declined to 5 percent in January
to 48 percent in January 2025 from 44 percent and 2025 from 20 percent in November 2024, possibly
28 percent in November 2024 and September 2024, reflecting the tighter collateral rules for accessing the
facility, aimed at reducing loan defaults.

Figure 14: Proportion of respondents who borrowed to finance farming by lender

(Percent of respondents)
60%
53%
50% 48%
44%

40% 38% 38%

35%

28% 28% 29%

30% 27%
24% 24%
22% 20%
20%
20% 18% 16% 16% 17%
12%
12% 12%
10% 8%10% 8% 9%
6% 5% 6% 6%
4% 3% 4% 4% 3%
2% 2% 0% 0%
0%
Cooperative Society

Buyer of farm produce e.g. coffee, milk

Savings and Credit Cooperative

Hustler Fund

Informal savings and credit group

Friends and family

Overall borrowing

Bank

Agricultural Finance Corporation

MFI

Informal money lender

Digital loans e.g. Mpesa, KCB Mpesa,

Other
Society (SACCO)

Fuliza

September 2024 survey November 2024 survey January 2025 survey

Regarding usage of agricultural loans, the survey the proportion of respondents who reported to
established that, similar to previous findings, the spend the borrowed funds on labour to 53 percent
largest proportion of farmers use the borrowed in January 2025 from 75 percent in November 2024
funds to purchase inputs. This proportion increased (Figure 15). This is expected given that January
slightly to 95 percent in January 2025 from 92 percent being a drier month there is relatively less labour
in November 2024 survey. There was a decline in intensive agricultural activity.

12 | REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

 Figure 15: Purpose of agricultural loans (Percent of respondents)
100% 92% 95%
90%
80% 75%
70%
60% 53%
50% 46%
40% 31% 31% 26% 29%
30% 23% 19%
20% 10%
10% 6% 3%
0%

agricultural ativities

Other (please specify)

equipment e.g. tractors

Expansion of farm/land
equipment/machinery

Buy inputs e.g. fertilizer,

Labour costs
seeds, pesticides, etc.
Diversification of
Hire/lease of farm
Buying

November 2024 survey January 2025 survey

With respect to barriers in accessing finance for percent of farmers interviewed practised rain-fed
farming, high interest rates continued to be the most agriculture (Annex Figure 18). Other factors that
significant binding constraint (Figure 16). Some influenced farmers’ decisions on whether or not to
farmers were unwilling to seek any form of loans for seek loans for farming were lack of collateral and the
farming for fear that doing so would expose them to long and cumbersome process of accessing loans.
autions in case of crop failure. They explained that Some farmers indicated that they were unable to get
crop growing was a risky activity as it mostly relied collateral as they relied on farm leasing where the
on rainfall which could fail, thereby exposing the land owner had control over the title deed. Others
farmer to such risks. A large share of crop growing is were not aware that there existed avenues for getting
rain-fed. For instance, in the January 2025 survey, loans to support farming.
similar to findings in November 2024, about 80

Figure 16: Barriers to credit among farmers (Percent of respondents)

70%

60% 58%

50%
41%
40%
32%
29%
30%
22% 24%
21%
20% 16%

10%

0%
November 2024 survey January 2025 survey
Do not need credit High interest rates Lack of collateral Other (please specify)

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 | 13

 4. VIEWS ON HOW TO IMPROVE THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

The January 2025 Survey sought views from farmers • Stabilize prices of agricultural produce which
on what should be done to improve agricultural tend to be highly volatile.
production and to ensure a continuos supply of • Promote mechanization of agriculture, for
agricultural produce. The suggestions gathered instance, subsidize tractor services during farm
in January 2025 survey are very similar to those preparation phase, to increase yields.
gathered in previous surveys: • Provide extension services, especially
agronomists to advise farmers on appropriate
• Promote irrigation by constructing more dams, farming techniques.
digging boreholes and water pans. This will • Improve feeder roads to enhance delivery of
reduce reliance on rainfed agriculture. agricultural produce to markets.
• Ensure farmers have access to affordable inputs, • Increase facilities for maize drying and ensure
high quality and timely delivery of inputs. they are closer to farmers, to reduce post-harvest
losses.

5. CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

This report summarizes the findings of the agriculture account of seasonal factors. The proportion of
sector survey of prices and output conducted from respondents expecting overall inflation to increase
January 13-17, 2025. The main objective of the in the next one month and next three moths was
survey was to obtain indicative information on recent relatively higher in January 2025 compared to
trends and market expectations of prices and output December2024, largely reflecting the impact of
of key agricultural commodities in the consumer seasonal factors. However, exchange rate stability
price index (CPI) basket for the purpose of informing and stable pump prices expected to provide some
monetary policy. relief.
• The proportion of respondents reporting
As with previous surveys, the survey focused on transport costs as a key factor influencing retail
prices of key agricultural commodities in select retail prices declined slightly in January 2025 compared
and wholesale markets, indicative agricultural output to November 2024, reflecting the benefit of
and acreage as well as output expectations, factors continued stability in pump prices. However, the
affecting agricultural production, marketing and sale proportion that cited weather conditions and
of farm produce, access to farm inputs and credit distance to market as key factors influencing
facilities as well as proposals on how to improve retail prices increased in January 2025 compared
agricultural production. to November 2024. This could be due to the fact
that January tends to be a dry month, and hence
The survey drew 294 respondents from wholesale is associated with an uptick in prices of food
traders, retailers, and farmers in select towns commodities especially vegetables. The distance
across the country: Nairobi Metropolitan area, and to market was a key factor because traders have
neighbouring counties including Kiambu, Kajiado to travel longer distances in search of supplies.
and Machakos, Naivasha area, Gilgil Nakuru, Narok, • The uptake of subsidized fertilizer was relatively
Bomet, Kericho Kisumu, Mombasa, Kisii, Eldoret, high with 69 percent of the sampled farmers
Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Machakos, reporting to have benefitted in January 2025
Isebania, Meru, Nyeri, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, compared to 58 percent in November 2024.
Makueni, Molo, Kakamega and Bungoma. • On balance, farmers expect increased acreage
and output in the next season. This is largely
The key findings from the January 2025 Survey driven by the expectation that the March-May
include the following: 2025 long rain season will be favourable.
• Optimism on the expected performance of the
• Prices of select vegetables increased in January agriculture sector remains high with over 70
2025 relative to December 2024, largely on percent of the sampled respondents in January

14 | REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025

 2025 expecting an improved outcome in the next inorganic fertiliser is the most used input with
three months and one year ahead. 79 percent of sampled farmers having reported
• Optimism about the expected performance of its usage. The government subsidised fertiliser
the economy in the next three months as well as programme is thus well targeted as it seeks to
one year ahead remained high at 59 percent for promote use of an input which is reported to be
the next three months and at 58 percent for the widely used by farmers.
next one year. • The government should also consider
implementing measures to reduce the cost of
Regarding views on how agricultural production pesticides/herbicides as this is the second most
could be improved, the responses were similar to used input. Pesticides/herbicides were said to be
those of previous surveys. Suggestions included so critical to crop health to the extent that most
the need to preserve water through construction crops would not produce any meaningful yields
of dams and water pans; address the high cost of without their application.
inputs and create a mechanism to stabilise prices of • Increase the number of fertilizer collection
agricultural commodities which are characterised by centres and have them closer to farmers to
fluctuations from time to time. reduce the costs that farmers incur travelling to
collect fertilizer.
There are several measures the Kenya government • Promote mechanization of agriculture by
can take to ensure that farmers are incentivised to providing incentives such as subsidised tractor
increase production. Based on the findings of this services especially during land preparation.
survey, the key recommendations mirror those • Promote price stability of agricultural produce
contained in previous reports of the Agriculture to reduce losses to farmers. For instance,
Sector Surveys. They include the following: government should consider allocating more
funds to National Cereals and Produce Board
• Promote irrigation to reduce reliance on rain-fed (NCPB) to purchase cereals such as maize during
agriculture which is risky due to the changing periods of excess supply.
weather patterns. • Bring essential services closer to farmers, for
• Ensure farm inputs are affordable, of high quality instance, maize drying services to reduce post-
and are available on time. The government harvest losses.
subsidised fertilizer programme should be • Prioritize construction and maintenance of feeder
sustained given the high input cost burden roads to ensure agricultural produce reaches the
reported by farmers. The findings of the January market easily. This will also reduce post-harvest
2025 survey, like previous survey findings, show loses.

REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025 | 15

 ANNEXES

Figure 17: Factors affecting wholesale prices (Percent of respondents)

100%
91%
90% 85% 85% 83%
82%
79% 78% 79%
80% 75% 77%
74% 74%
70%
60% 57%

50% 46%

40%
30%
20% 17% 15%

10%
0%

Nov-24 Jan-25

Figure 18: Main water source for farming in

January 2025 (Percent of respondents)

20%

80%

Rain fed Irrigation

16 | REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR SURVEY - JANUARY 2025