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education and intergener ational
social mobilit y in europe
and the united states
St udies i n Soci a l I n equa l i t y

This book series is devoted to examining poverty and inequality in its

many forms, including the takeoff in economic inequality, increasing
spatial segregation, and ongoing changes in gender, racial, and ethnic
inequality.
e du c a t ion a n d i n t e rg e n e r a t ion a l
s o c i a l mobi l i t y i n e u rop e
a nd t h e u ni t ed stat es

Edited by Richard Breen and Walter Müller

sta nford univ ersit y pr ess

sta nfor d, califor ni a
Stanford University Press
Stanford, California
© 2020 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford
­Junior University. All rights reserved.
This book has been published with the assistance of
Nuffield College, University of Oxford, and Mannheim
University.
No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in
any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, includ-
ing photocopying and recording, or in any information stor-
age or retrieval system without the prior written permission
of Stanford University Press.
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free,
archival-quality paper
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Breen, Richard, 1954- editor. | Müller, Walter,
1942- editor.
Title: Education and intergenerational social mobility in
Europe and the United States / edited by Richard Breen
and Walter Müller.
Other titles: Studies in social inequality.
Description: Stanford, California : Stanford University
Press, 2020. | Series: Studies in social inequality | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019019675 (print) | LCCN 2019022265
(ebook) | ISBN 9781503610163 (cloth ; alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Educational mobility—Europe—
History—20th century. | Educational mobility—United
States—History—20th century. | Social mobility—
Europe—History—20th century. | Social mobility—United
States—History—20th century.
Classification: LCC LC191.8.E85 E32 2020 (print) |
LCC LC191.8.E85 (ebook) | DDC 306.43094—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019019675
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019022265
Cover photo: Robert Eastman/Alamy Stock Photo
Typeset by Newgen in Sabon LT Std Roman and 10/14
con t en ts

Figures and Tables vii

Contributors xv
Acknowledgments xix

ch apter one
Introduction: Social Mobility and Education in the
Twentieth Century 1
Richard Breen and Walter Müller

ch a p t er t wo
Methodological Preliminaries 20
Richard Breen

chapter three
The Land of Opportunity? Trends in Social Mobility and
Education in the United States 29
Florian R. Hertel and Fabian T. Pfeffer

ch a p t er fou r
Sweden, the Middle Way? Trends and Patterns in Social Mobility
and Educational Inequality 69
Richard Breen and Jan O. Jonsson

chapter five
Intergenerational Mobility and Social Fluidity in France over Birth
Cohorts and Age: The Role of Education 91
Louis-André Vallet
v
vi Contents

ch ap ter six
Education as an Equalizing Force: How Declining Educational
Inequality and Educational Expansion Have Contributed to More
Social Fluidity in Germany 122
Reinhard Pollak and Walter Müller

chapter seven
The Swiss El Dorado? Education and Social Mobility in
Twentieth-Century Switzerland 150
Julie Falcon

ch a p t er eigh t
The Role of Education in the Social Mobility of Dutch Cohorts,
1908–1974 173
Richard Breen, Ruud Luijkx, and Eline Berkers

chapter nine
Education and Social Fluidity in Contemporary Italy: An Analysis of
Cohort Trends 196
Carlo Barone and Raffaele Guetto

chapter ten
Intergenerational Social Mobility in Twentieth-Century Spain:
Social Fluidity without Educational Equalization? 224
Carlos J. Gil-Hernández, Fabrizio Bernardi, and Ruud Luijkx

chapter eleven
Social Mobility in the Twentieth Century in Europe
and the United States 251
Richard Breen and Walter Müller

Bibliography 297
Index 325
figu r es a n d ta bl es

Figures
chapter one
1.1. The OED triangle 8

chapter two
2.1. Decomposition results, Swedish women 27

chapter three: usa

3.1. Changes in the distribution of education 41
3.2. Changes in the occupational structure 43
3.3. Trends in vertical absolute mobility and immobility across
cohorts 45
3.4. Trends in (absolute) class gaps in education 47
3.5. Absolute class attainment by educational attainment 48
3.6. Absolute mobility trends among university graduates 50
3.7. Strength of relative association between origin and
destination by educational degree 52
3.8. Relative trends in two-way associations between origin,
destination, and education 54
3.9. Mechanisms behind social fluidity trends 60

chapter four: sweden

4.1. Changes in class origins of respondents in different birth
cohorts 75
4.2. Changes across cohorts in class destinations for 35- to
70-year-old men and women 76
4.3. Changes across cohorts in educational qualifications for
35- to 70-year-old men and women 77
vii
viii Figures and Tables

4.4. Absolute mobility by cohort 80

4.5. Upward and downward mobility by cohort, selected class
origins 81
4.6. Change over cohort in the bivariate associations between
class origin and education (OE), origin and destination
class (OD), and education and destination (ED),
respectively 83
4.7. Class origin effects on destination class at different levels
of education 84
4.8. Accounting for trends in observed social fluidity by edu-
cational equalization, educational expansion, and change
in the direct origin–destination effect 86

chapter five: france

5.1. Trends over cohorts in the origin, destination, and educa-
tion distributions 103
5.2. Contribution of the four mechanisms to the increase in
social fluidity over cohorts (I) 116
5.3. Contribution of the four mechanisms to the increase in
social fluidity over cohorts (II) 117

chapter six: germany

6.1. Marginal distribution changes of origin (O) and destina-
tion classes (D) and education over cohorts 131
6.2. Change of bivariate associations of O E and D over
cohorts 133
6.3. Absolute mobility rates 134
6.4. OD, OE, and ED unidiffs 137
6.5. Uniform difference variation of direct OD effects over
education levels 140
6.6. Total (solid lines) and direct (broken lines) effects of
origin on destination from multinomial regression using
KHB decomposition 141
6.7. Unidiff parameters taken from simulation models 144

chapter seven: switzerland

7.1. Trends in absolute social mobility 163
7.2. Unidiff parameters for change over cohorts in the OD,
OE, and ED associations 165
 Figures and Tables ix

7.3. Unidiff parameters for differences over educational cat-

egories in the OD association 167
7.4. KHB decomposition 168
7.5. Simulations for men and women 170

chapter eight: the netherlands

8.1. Changes in class origins 178
8.2. Changes in class destinations, men and women 179
8.3. Changes in education, men and women 180
8.4. Absolute mobility trends, men and women 184
8.5. Upward and downward mobility, men and women 185
8.6. OD, OE, and ED unidiffs, men and women 186
8.7. OD association over E 188
8.8. Decomposition results, men and women 189
8.9. Education and service class entry 191

chapter nine: italy

9.1. Distributions of class of origin, class of destination,
and education across cohorts, separately for men and
women 204
9.2. Trends in mobility patterns among men and women;
cell values of mobility tables as percentages of total
sample 205
9.3. Outflow mobility rates for men and women 206
9.4. Uniform difference coefficients for change over co-
horts in OD, ED, OE, and OD|E, controlled (dashed
lines) and not controlled (solid lines) for period
effects—Italian men 209
9.5. Multinomial logistic regression to study IEOs among
­Italian men (age selection 30–75) 212
9.6. Multinomial logistic regressions to study gross and ­direct
OD associations among Italian men (age selection 30–
75)—Change in the chance of belonging to class IVab or
V–VI–VIIa relative to class I–II 214
9.7. Uniform difference coefficients for change over cohorts
in OD, ED, OE, and OD|E, controlled (dashed lines) and
not controlled (solid lines) for period effects—Italian
women 216
9.8. Simulation analysis of trends in social fluidity 217
x Figures and Tables

chapter ten: spain

10.1. Changes in class origins of respondents in different birth
cohorts 233
10.2. Change across cohorts in class destinations for 35- to
70-year-olds 233
10.3. Changes across cohorts in educational qualifications for
35- to 70-year-olds 235
10.4. Absolute mobility trends 239
10.5. Upward and downward mobility trends 240
10.6. OD, OE, and ED unidiffs 243
10.7. OD unidiffed over E, men and women 244
10.8. Simulation results 245

chapter eleven: europe and the united states

11.1. Percentage in top and bottom classes by birth cohort,
men 252
11.2. Dissimilarity index, men 254
11.3. Total mobility rate, men 255
11.4. Upward and downward mobility rates, men 257
11.5. Service-class origins and destinations, men 239
11.6. Women’s labor force participation rate, 1960–2015 263
11.7. Percentage in top and bottom classes by birth cohort,
women 265
11.8. Dissimilarity index, women 266
11.9. Total mobility rate, women 266
11.10. Upward and downward mobility rates, women 267
11.11. Service-class origins and destinations, women 271
11.12. Low and high education, men 273
11.13. Low and high education, women 274
11.14. Log odds of staying in and of entering the service
class, men 281
11.15. Log odds of staying in and of entering the service class,
women 282
11.16. Normed service class log odds ratios 283
11.17. OD, OE, and simulated OD trends, men 284
11.18. OD, OE, and simulated OD trends, women 285
 Figures and Tables xi

Tables

chapter one
1.1. The Erikson-Goldthorpe class schema as used in
Germany, France, Sweden, the Netherlands, and
Switzerland 12
1.2. The CASMIN educational classification 13
1.3. Surveys, cohorts, and ages in the French data 15
1.4. Age ranges, cohorts, classes, and educational categories 17

chapter three: usa

3.1. Sample characteristics by birth cohort 39
3.2. Cohort trends in education and class structure
(percentage) 42
3.3. Absolute mobility rates (percentages) 45
3.4. The role of education as mediator of social fluidity
(percentage) 53
3.5. Fit statistics for observed trends in mobility
components 56
3.6. Incremental linear change in social fluidity for each
channel 61

chapter four: sweden

4.1. Intergenerational (parent-to-child) social class mobility
among men and women, aged 35–70 and born 1906–72
(outflow [row] percentages) 78
4.2. Intergenerational social class mobility among men aged
40–50 born 1926–36 and 1955–67 (outflow [row]
percentages) 79
4.3. Intergenerational social class mobility among women
aged 40–50 born 1926–36 and 1955–67 (outflow [row]
percentages) 79
4.4. Goodness-of-fit of models of no change and unidiff change
over birth cohorts in OD, OE, and ED relationships 83

chapter five: france

5.1. Observational design 101
5.2. Absolute class mobility rates in the 1906–24 and 1965–73
cohorts 107
xii Figures and Tables

5.3. Change over cohorts in the origin–destination

association 108
5.4. Change over cohorts in the origin–education
association 111
5.5. Change over cohorts in the education–destination
association 113
5.6. The interaction between education, class origin, and class
destination 114

chapter six: germany

6.1. Cohort size, age range, and mean age at which cohort
members are surveyed 129
6.2. Log-linear models of change over cohorts in the bivariate
associations of OD, OE, and ED 136
6.3. Log-linear models of change over cohorts in the OED tri-
angle (COED table) 138

chapter seven: switzerland

7.1. Trends over cohorts in educational expansion and in edu-
cational attainment according to class origin over cohorts
(outflow percentages) 158
7.2. Trends in labor market tertiarisation (percentages) 161
7.3. Trends in class destination by educational attainment
(outflow percentages) 162
7.4. Log-linear models of change in the OD, OE, and ED
associations 164

chapter eight: the netherlands

8.1. Social class mobility among men and women, aged 35–70
and born 1908–74 (outflow [row] percentages) 180
8.2. Social class mobility among men aged 35–70 and born
1925–34 and 1955–64 (outflow [row] percentages) 181
8.3. Social class mobility among women aged 35–70 and born
1925–34 and 1955–64 (outflow [row] percentages) 183
8.4. Goodness-of-fit of models of no change and unidiff change
over birth cohorts in OD, OE, and ED relationships 186

chapter nine: italy

9.1. Italian men and women selected for the analyses of social
mobility (age selection 30–65) 203
 Figures and Tables xiii

chapter ten: spain

10.1. Birth cohorts and historical landmarks 232
10.2. Social class mobility among men and women, aged 35–70
and born 1910–71 (outflow [row] percentages) 236
10.3. Social class mobility among men born 1925–36 and
1949–60 (outflow [row] percentages) 237
10.4. Social class mobility among women born 1925–36 and
1949–60 (outflow [row] percentages) 238
10.5. Goodness-of-fit of models on no change and unidiff change
over birth cohort and education in OD, OE, ED 241

chapter eleven: europe and the united states

11.1. Percentages of men with origins in class I + II and class
VII/IIIb in the oldest and youngest cohorts 258
11.2. Percentages of all men in each cohort who are immobile
in classes I + II, mobile into classes I + II, and mobile out
of classes I + II 260
11.3. Percentages of all men in each cohort who are immobile
in class VII/IIIb, mobile into VII/IIIb (class VII for men in
the USA), and mobile out of VII/IIIb 261
11.4. Differences between men and women in upward
and downward mobility rates (men’s rates minus
women’s) 268
11.5. Percentages of all women in each cohort who are immo-
bile in classes I + II, mobile into classes I + II, and mobile
out of classes I + II 269
11.6. Percentages of all women in each cohort who are
­immobile in class VII/IIIb, mobile into VII/IIIb (class VII
for men in the USA), and mobile out of VII/IIIb 270
11.7. Percentage of people in each educational category
in ­pre-1924 and post-1964 cohorts by gender and
country 275
11.8. Ratio of percentage class I + II destination to percentage
tertiary qualification in pre-1924 and post-1964 cohorts
by gender and country 277
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