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Springer Climate

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The Monsoons
and Climate
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Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho
Charles Jones
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The Monsoons and Climate

Change
Observations and Modeling

123
Editors
Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho Charles Jones
Department of Geography and Earth Earth Research Institute
Research Institute University of California
University of California Santa Barbara, CA
Santa Barbara, CA USA
USA

ISSN 2352-0698 ISSN 2352-0701 (electronic)

Springer Climate
ISBN 978-3-319-21649-2 ISBN 978-3-319-21650-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8

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Preface

Monsoon systems are unique features of the climate of the Earth. While monsoons
were historically defined as a “reversal in the surface winds accompanied by
changes in precipitation” over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, modern studies
in fact show that, except for the Polar Regions, monsoons occur in Africa, Asia,
Indonesia, Australia, and the Americas. Driven primarily by the thermal contrast
between large land masses and surrounding oceans, the monsoons exhibit a phe-
nomenal range of spatial and temporal variability. The annual onset of the rainy
season and its demise, for instance, show considerable changes from year to year in
each monsoon system. Similarly, the intensity of the monsoons varies on subsea-
sonal, inter-annual, decadal, and centennial time scales. It is, therefore, widely
recognized that the monsoons play a vital role for humans and the environment.
Often the occurrence of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or droughts,
can have significant impacts on millions of people who live in monsoon regions and
rely on water for human consumption, agriculture, energy, and transportation.
Observational and theoretical evidence points to the undeniable fact that the
Earth’s climate is changing rapidly, and anthropogenic activities have been an
important component of this change. Climate variability and change pose signifi-
cant challenges for humans to develop adaptation strategies that can minimize
negative impacts. This is the case in particular when important uncertainties in
projections of regional climate change exist. While the monsoons have been
investigated for many decades and the understanding of the physical mechanisms
associated with them has progressed steadily over the years, there are many
unresolved questions of how the continual warming of the planet will affect the
monsoons.
This book originated from the conference session entitled “The Global
Monsoons and Climate Change: Observations, Models and Projections” held at the
fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in 2012 in San Francisco,
California. A significant portion of the material presented here includes results from
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations,
which contributed to the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on

v
vi Preface

Climate Change (IPCC) finalized in 2013. Thus, the main goal of this book is to
provide a concise and timely assessment of the monsoons and climate change.
The book has 11 chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the main intent of the book.
A global view of the monsoons and its change are presented in Chap. 2. Chapters 3
and 4 discuss the Asian Monsoon variability and the projected changes in the
twenty-first century. Chapter 5 covers the Australian summer monsoon and
potential changes in upcoming decades, and the monsoon systems in South
America and North America are discussed in Chaps. 6 and 7, respectively. Chapter
8 explores the seasonal variation of the Indo-Pacific monsoon circulation and
interactions with the climate of East Africa. Connections between the North
American and South American Monsoon systems are covered in Chap. 9. Since all
monsoon systems exhibit significant variability on intra-seasonal time scales,
Chap. 10 discusses future changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Lastly,
Chap. 11 analyzes the importance of the monsoon systems on glaciers in the central
Andes and Himalayas.
The completion of this book was possible with the contributions of several
authors who are experts in the research of monsoons and climate change. Their
efforts and dedication are greatly appreciated, and we also thank Forest Cannon,
Abheera Hazra, and Jesse Norris for their kind help in proofreading several sections
of the book. Finally, we express our sincere appreciation for the support and pro-
fessionalism of the editorial staff of Springer International Publishing.

Santa Barbara, CA, USA Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho

Charles Jones
Contents

1 The Monsoons and Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho
2 Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Pang-Chi Hsu
3 South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability in a Changing
Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
H. Annamalai and K.R. Sperber
4 Projecting Changes of the Asian Summer Monsoon Through
the Twenty-First Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Hirokazu Endo and Akio Kitoh
5 The Australian Summer Monsoon in Current and Future
Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Huqiang Zhang and Aurel Moise
6 The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho and Iracema F.A. Cavalcanti
7 Recent and Possible Future Variations in the North American
Monsoon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Andrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow
and Shraddhanand Shukla
8 The East African Monsoon System: Seasonal Climatologies
and Recent Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Chris Funk, Andrew Hoell, Shraddhanand Shukla, Greg Husak
and Joel Michaelsen
9 The Connection Between the North and South American
Monsoons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Rong Fu, Paola A. Arias and Hui Wang

vii
viii Contents

10 The Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Monsoons . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Charles Jones
11 Glaciers and Monsoon Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Bodo Bookhagen

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Contributors

H. Annamalai International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii,

Honolulu, HI, USA
Paola A. Arias Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela
Ambiental, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; Departamento de
Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Mathew Barlow Department of Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA, USA
Bodo Bookhagen Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of
Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, Germany
Iracema F.A. Cavalcanti Climate Prediction and Weather Forecast Center,
National Institute of Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho Department of Geography, University of
California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA; Earth Research Institute, University of
California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Hirokazu Endo Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute,
Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Rong Fu Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin,
TX, USA
Chris Funk Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group, Department of Geography,
University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA; Earth Resources Observation
Systems Data Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, USA
Andrew Hoell Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group, Department of Geography,
University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

ix
x Contributors

Pang-Chi Hsu International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change and

College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and
Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center, University of
Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA
Greg Husak Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group, University of California,
Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Charles Jones Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara,
Santa Barbara, CA, USA; Earth Research Institute, University of California Santa
Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Akio Kitoh University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Joel Michaelsen Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group, University of California,
Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Aurel Moise Bureau of Meteorology Research and Development, Melbourne,
VIC, Australia
Shraddhanand Shukla Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group, Department of
Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA; University
Corporation of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
K.R. Sperber Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Hui Wang NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD,
USA; Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Huqiang Zhang Bureau of Meteorology Research and Development, Melbourne,
VIC, Australia
Chapter 1
The Monsoons and Climate Change

Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho

Abstract Monsoon systems are unique features of the climate of the Earth and the
reality of global warming has important implications for the environment and
human society. This chapter provides a brief overview of this important topic.

Keywords Monsoons
Climate change
Population
IPCC
CMIP5

Monsoon systems are among the most extraordinary and intriguing phenomena on
our planet. The word “monsoon” comes from the Arabic word “mawsim,’’ meaning
“season.” Historically, the term monsoon” describes the seasonal variation in sur-
face winds that played significant roles in navigation and maritime trades, partic-
ularly with India (Tripati and Raut 2006). Today, this term is used in a much
broader context. Monsoons are considered planetary manifestations of pronounced
thermal contrasts between large land masses and ocean basins enhanced by the
existence of high elevations and plateaus, such as the Tibetan Plateau in Asia and
the Andes in South America. These efficient engines pump moisture from large
ocean basins across great distances in meandering flows that reach tropical lands
during summer to drive the most powerful precipitating systems on Earth.
Monsoon regions are globally distributed over all tropical continents and in
tropical oceans in the eastern and western North Pacific, and in the southern Indian
Ocean. Figure 1.1 represents the geographical distribution of these monsoon
regions by the relative contribution of summer precipitation to the total annual
precipitation. Six monsoon systems have been recognized: the African, South
Asian, East Asian, Australian, North American, and South American Monsoons.
Although the American monsoon system has not been clearly identified with wind
reversals (Webster et al. 1998), when the long-term mean is removed, an evident
seasonal reversal in circulation emerges (Vera et al. 2006; Zhou and Lau 1998).
These magnificent systems regulate the hydrological cycle in large portions of the

L.M.V. de Carvalho (&)

Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
L.M.V. de Carvalho
Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 1

L.M.V. de Carvalho and C. Jones (eds.), The Monsoons and Climate Change,
Springer Climate, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_1
2 L.M.V. de Carvalho

Fig. 1.1 Percent of annual precipitation during the summer peak in the northern hemisphere
(June, July, August) and southern hemisphere summer (December, January, February).
Precipitation data is from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) at 25° resolution.
a Percent of annual precipitation during June, July and August. b Percent of annual precipitation
during December, January and February

Fig. 1.2 World’s population (in millions of inhabitants) as of 2007, and major river systems. Data
source Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI)
1 The Monsoons and Climate Change 3

tropics and are essential for creating the Earth’s most diverse ecosystems and
allowing the development of agriculture and human settlements throughout time.
Figure 1.2 shows the geographic distribution of the world’s population and
evidences the remarkable importance of monsoon systems for the subsistence of
billions of people. The Earth’s population in 2013 was estimated to be 7,162 billion
people, with about 43 % of this population living in four countries largely affected
by monsoonal regimes: China (first in the rank), India (second), Indonesia (third),
and Brazil (fourth). According to projections of the United Nations (2013), the
world’s population is estimated to reach over 10 billion by the end of the
twenty-first century, with India leading the rank and the most populated countries
exhibiting territory partially or totally influenced by monsoon systems. Therefore,
more than 50 % the Earth’s population will be directly or indirectly influenced by
monsoon systems and will be mostly susceptible to the effects of global warming
and climate change in these regions. With the growth in population, the demand for
food is expected to increase proportionally. Rice is among the most important crops
that feeds the world (Seck et al. 2012), and countries influenced by the South Asia
and East Asia monsoons lead rice production (http://www.geohive.com/). Climate
change in monsoon regions increases the risks of infectious diseases that are usually
exacerbated in developing countries due to inadequate sanitary conditions, mal-
nutrition, and insufficient access to health services, clean water, and other basic
necessities (Jones et al. 2008; Patz et al. 2005). Thus, variations and changes in
intensity, frequency, and regularity of monsoonal precipitation are and will continue
to be crucial for food and health security.
The abundant rainfall produced by summer convective systems over land controls
soil moisture and the extent of wetlands and river flows, creates feedback (Douville
et al. 2001; Eltahir 1998; Small 2001) and regulate carbon cycles (Richey et al. 2002).
The dry period during the winter months following the wet season reinvigorates crop
cycles, which are relevant for carbon sequestration (Carvalho et al. 2009). The dry
season is also the period of intense biomass burning, particularly from rainforests and
pasture, a practice that is very common in all monsoon regions (Crutzen and Andreae
1990; Fearnside 2000; Hao and Liu 1994; Haywood et al. 2008; Lestari et al. 2014).
Hobbs et al. (1997) estimate that about 80 % of all biomass burning occurs in the
tropics. Biomass burning from anthropogenic or natural origin releases large quan-
tities of CO, CO2, acetonitrile, methyl chloride, hydrocarbons, NO, O3, and aerosols
in the atmosphere, which are transported through long distances affecting air quality
across the globe and causing complex feedback in the climate system that have yet to
be identified and properly quantified (Andreae et al. 1988; Andreae et al. 2001;
Freitas et al. 2005). Global warming may cause regional variations in monsoonal
circulation and modify the length of the wet and dry seasons, resulting in variations in
the distribution of precipitation and cloudiness that can accelerate climate change by
modifying carbon cycles (Luo 2007; White et al. 1999) and radiation budgets, among
other processes. The anthropogenic component of these changes is difficult to
evaluate as society evolves and exerts significant pressure on the environment by
intensifying land-use-land-cover-change and releasing greenhouse gases and aero-
sols in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003; Trenberth 2011).
4 L.M.V. de Carvalho

The increase in surface temperatures also has important implications for the
hydrological cycle in regions where the water supply depends on the melting of
snow and ice, such as the Andes and the Himalayas. There is evidence that the
South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon are essential for supplying
moisture and precipitation to high elevations (Barnett et al. 2005; Bird et al. 2011),
and possibly controlling surface temperatures through cloud radiative transfer
processes. In addition, changes in precipitation affect the volume and timing of
runoff with dramatic impacts for populations living downslope of these mountains
(Bookhagen and Burbank 2010; Bookhagen and Strecker 2012).
Understanding and assessing the anthropogenic influence on the monsoons is
especially challenging for several reasons: vast areas covered by rain forests and
complex terrain with limited access to instrumentation; intermittent and scarce
observations, particularly for periods extending before the satellite era; and mon-
soon regions dominated by developing and least developing countries (according to
the United Nations) that provide limited support for installing and maintaining
meteorological stations. Although monitoring climate variations in monsoon
regions has considerably improved since the advent of satellites, long-term trends
and regional to local climate change signals are virtually unknown in large areas
under the influence of monsoon systems.
The compelling evidence of warming of the climate system since the twentieth
century and the anthropogenic interference in this process motivated the United
Nations to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC
is a scientific intergovernmental body that was established in 1988 by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNE), with the goal of producing reports that support the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is considered the main interna-
tional treaty on climate change. The IPCC reports “cover the scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of the risk
of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and
mitigation” (www.ipcc.ch). The completion of the Fifth Assessment Report of (AR5)
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013) provided the most
updated scientific understanding of climate change and its implications.
The main purpose of this book is to provide a concise and timely assessment of
monsoons and climate change based on the AR5 and other recent scientific con-
tributions; its 11 chapters cover the monsoons from a global perspective as well as
each individual monsoon system. A global view of the monsoons and their changes
are presented in Chap. 2. Chapters 3 and 4 discuss the Asian Monsoon variability
and the projected changes in the twenty-first century, while Chap. 5 covers the
Australian summer monsoon and potential changes in the coming decades. The
monsoon systems in South America and North America are discussed in Chaps. 6
and 7, respectively. Chapter 8 explores the seasonal variation of the Indo-Pacific
monsoon circulation and interactions with the climate of East Africa. Connections
between the North American and South American Monsoon systems are discussed
in Chap. 9. Since all monsoon systems exhibit significant variability on
1 The Monsoons and Climate Change 5

intra-seasonal time scales, Chap. 10 discusses future changes in the Madden-Julian

Oscillation (MJO). Finally, Chap. 11 analyzes the importance of the monsoon for
glacier systems.

Acknowledgments Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho acknowledges the support of the Climate
and Large-scale Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation (AGS-1053294 and AGS
1116105), the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA10OAR4310170), the CGIAR Research
Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and the International
Potato Center in Lima, Peru (SB120184). The author is grateful to Forest Cannon and Yingjie Hu
for producing Figs. 1.1 and 1.2 in this chapter.

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Chapter 2
Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate

Pang-Chi Hsu

Abstract Monsoons, the most energetic tropical climate system, exert a great
social and economic impact upon billions of people around the world. This chapter
reviews recent progress in our understanding of the global monsoon (GM) system
and its associated precipitation changes in the present and future warming climates.
The GM can be viewed as an integrated system of all regional monsoons over the
globe that are driven by solar forcing and bounded by the planetary-scale over-
turning circulation. The GM precipitation (GMP), defined as the total summer
monsoon precipitation amount within the GM area (GMA), experienced
multi-decadal variability in the twentieth century. The observed GMP over land
shows a slightly increasing trend from 1900 throughout the 1940s, and then a
downward trend from the 1950s until the end of the 1970s; there was no clear trend
after 1980. The GMP over the ocean has had more uncertainty over the past three
decades, and trends are inconsistent among different global rainfall datasets. In the
twenty-first century, the GMP is expected to increase robustly, based on the pro-
jections by the state-of-the-art coupled models that participated in Phases 3 and 5 of
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The change in
GMP under global warming is primarily due to changes to the hydrological cycle
induced by warmer temperatures. The increase in water vapor contributes positively
to moisture convergence and surface evaporation over the GMA, but is partly offset
by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.

Keywords Global monsoon
Monsoon precipitation variability
Global

warming CMIP3 CMIP5

P.-C. Hsu (&)

International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change and College
of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,
Nanjing, China
e-mail: [email protected]
P.-C. Hsu
International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 7

L.M.V. de Carvalho and C. Jones (eds.), The Monsoons and Climate Change,
Springer Climate, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_2
8 P.-C. Hsu

2.1 Introduction

“Monsoon” is conventionally defined as the seasonal reversal in lower-tropospheric

winds (Ramage 1971), and its associated precipitation is characterized by a contrast
between wet summers and dry winters (Webster 1987). The contrast is induced by
the annual cycle of solar heating and seasonal changes in large-scale
continent-ocean thermal contrast. Monsoons occur around the globe: in Asia,
Australia, Africa, and throughout the Americas (Webster et al. 1998). From a
regional perspective, an individual monsoon system evolves according to the local
land-sea configuration, orography, and feedback with the distinct elements of the
climate system. The features and variations of each regional monsoon have been
extensively studied over the past three decades (e.g., Davidson et al. 1983; McBride
1987; Tao and Chen 1987; Webster 1987; Ding 1994; Higgins et al. 1997; Webster
et al. 1998; Sultan and Janicot 2003; Goswami 2005; Vera et al. 2006).
More recently, an emerging concept of the global monsoon (GM) has been
proposed to describe the combined variability of monsoon systems around the
world. Considering that all regional monsoons are associated with the annual cycle
of solar heating and that the global-scale circulation is necessitated by mass con-
servation, Trenberth et al. (2000) depicted the GM system as a persistent
global-scale overturning of the tropical atmosphere that varies with seasons. In a
dynamic sense, the rainfall distributions reflect the tropospheric heat sources that
drive the circulation in the tropics; thus, the planetary-scale overturning circulation
is closely associated with the seasonal variation of precipitation. Wang and Ding
(2008) documented that in the climatological context, the GM system is the
dominant mode of annual precipitation and 850 hPa winds in the tropics. Applying
a multi-variable empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to climatological
monthly precipitation and low-level wind fields, two leading modes—accounting
for 84 % of the annual variance—were obtained. The first mode, called the solstitial
mode, represents the atmospheric response to the meridional differential of annual
solar forcing. The second mode, the equinoctial asymmetry mode, reflects the
asymmetric patterns between spring and autumn. Both modes characterize the
seasonality of tropical climate (Wang and Ding 2008).
In short, the GM is a response of the coupled climate system to the annual cycle
of solar forcing. From this global perspective, the precipitation over each monsoon
region combines to form the GM system, which is associated with a planetary-scale
overturning circulation throughout the tropics (Trenberth et al. 2000, 2006).

2.2 Delineations of Global Monsoon Precipitation, Area,

and Intensity

The monsoon climate features the seasonal variations in both wind and precipita-
tion. Earlier studies used the reversal in wind direction and speed to identify a
monsoon domain (Ramage 1971). Such monsoon domains are found mainly over
2 Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate 9

the Eastern Hemisphere because the seasonal wind reversal is less significant over
the Americas. Besides the wind field, precipitation is another fundamental variable
used to delineate the monsoon climate. Monsoon precipitation is characterized by a
concentration of yearly rainfall in the local summer and a dry period in the local
winter (Webster 1987). Using a simple parameter based on precipitation, Wang and
Ding (2006) defined the global monsoon area (GMA) as the regions in which the
annual range (AR—the local summer-minus-winter rainfall) of rainfall exceeds
180 mm and the summer-to-annual rainfall ratio is greater than 35 %. In the
Northern Hemisphere (NH), the summer is defined as June to August (JJA) and the
winter is defined as December to February (DJF). In the Southern Hemisphere
(SH), the definitions are reversed. Figure 2.1 shows the derived GMA based on the
climatological monthly rainfall averaged from the Global Precipitation Climatology
Project (GPCP; Adler et al. 2003) and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation
(CMAP; Xie and Arkin 1997) datasets. The known monsoon systems around the
world, including the Asian, Australian, northern and southern African, and North
and South American Monsoons, are well identified.
Following the approach of Wang and Ding (2006), other studies modified the
lengths of summer and winter seasons and the criteria of rainfall indices. For
example, Liu et al. (2009) used a longer length of local summer (May to September
(MJJAS) for the NH) and winter (November to March (NDJFM) for the NH)
months. The two criteria for GMA were modified as the AR (MJJAS and NDJFM
difference) exceeding 2 mm day−1 and the ratio of summer-to-annual rainfall
exceeding 55 %. The defined GMA (Fig. 2 in Liu et al. 2009) is almost identical to
that shown in Fig. 2.1. The GMA presented in Wang et al. (2011) was based on
alternative criteria—AR (JJA and DJF difference) exceeding 2 mm day−1 and 70 %
of the annual mean, and it also agrees with the results shown in Fig. 2.1 and other
similar studies (Wang and Ding 2008; Liu et al. 2009). Therefore, the defined GMA
is not very sensitive to the two criteria with some modifications.
Total rainfall amount during a local summer (JJA for the NH, and DJF for the
SH) is the major factor determining the amplitude of AR. Generally, a larger AR
(wet-dry season contrast) reflects a more active monsoon. Therefore, the total GM

Fig. 2.1 Observed global monsoon area (shaded area) derived from the average of GPCP and
CMAP climatological rainfall for 1979–2008
10 P.-C. Hsu

Fig. 2.2 Time series of normalized global land monsoon precipitation anomalies. The bars denote
the GMP over land based on the data compiled by Dai (Dai-dataset). The anomalies are calculated
relative to the mean of 1951–1979, using the precipitation datasets developed by the Global
Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and by the Climate Research Unit (CRU), and the
Dai-dataset. The red, blue, and green curves are 5-year running means of GPCC, CRU and
Dai-dataset, respectively. According to Zhang and Zhou (2011)

precipitation (GMP)—the sum of summer rainfall within the GMA—is proposed to

describe the monsoon strength (Wang and Ding 2006, 2008; Liu et al. 2009). Given
that the global circulation and the land-sea surface-temperature contrast may
experience significant changes from one climate condition to another, induced by
sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies or anthropogenic forcing, the GMA may
be subject to some temporal/spatial variability. To describe the GMP change
associated with a varying GMA, the global monsoon intensity (GMI) index, which
measures the GMP amount per unit area, was introduced (Zhou et al. 2008a; Hsu
et al. 2011; Wang et al. 2011). Because the area in each grid box varies with
latitude, an area-conserving metric is applied when calculating the GMA and
GMP. The long-term variability of GMA, GMP, and GMI over the past decades and
their projected changes under certain global warming scenarios, are reviewed in the
following two sections, respectively.

2.3 Observed Changes in Global Monsoon Activity

2.3.1 Trends in GM Precipitation in the Twentieth Century

After the concept of the GM was proposed, a number of researchers began to

investigate the variability of GMP over continental monsoon areas inhabited by
billions of people. Chase et al. (2003) analyzed the variation of land precipitation
along with surface pressure and upper-level divergence in the Asian, Australian,
and African monsoon regions between 1950 and 1998. Consistent reductions in
land rainfall and monsoonal circulations have been detected over the monsoon
2 Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate 11

regions globally since 1950. However, this decreasing trend has leveled off since
1979, when the strongest global warming has been reported in terms of averaged
surface temperature. Using four sets of rain gauge observations for the 1948–2003
period, Wang and Ding (2006) also pointed out an overall downward trend in
rainfall over land within global monsoon domains, particularly before 1980. The
weakening of GMP over land was mainly attributed to the decreased summer
monsoon rainfall in the NH because the monsoon rainfall in the SH showed no
significant trend over the same period (Wang and Ding 2006). Zhou et al. (2008a)
further pointed out that not only the monsoon precipitation intensity, but also the
total monsoon area, contributed to this weakening trend in global land monsoon
rainfall from 1949 to 2002.
Using a century-long observational rainfall dataset, Zhang and Zhou (2011) found
that the global land monsoon precipitation exhibited a significant multi-decadal
variability during the twentieth century (Fig. 2.2). A significant upward trend in the
global land monsoon precipitation was shown in the first half of the century (1901–
1955), followed by a downward trend in the latter half (1955–2001), as documented
in other studies (Chase et al. 2003; Wang and Ding 2006; Zhou et al. 2008a).
Because of this multi-decadal change, the overall trend for the twentieth century
(1901–2001) was not statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level.
As discussed above, the results based on rain-gauge observations show no
significant trend in rainfall over the global land monsoon areas since 1979. Was this
the same for the precipitation change over the oceanic monsoon regions? Wang and
Ding (2006) used the GPCP dataset to examine the GMP over oceans and found a
significant increasing trend from 1979 to 2003. This change in oceanic monsoon
rainfall, however, is not robust and depends on data sources (Zhou et al. 2008b; Hsu
et al. 2011). In contrast to the GPCP data, the CMAP data indicate a weak declining
monsoon rainfall over the global oceanic monsoon regions for the period of 1979–
2008. The inconsistency of rainfall variability over the oceans between the GPCP
and CMAP datasets was attributed to different algorithms used to retrieve the
precipitation from the satellite data (Gruber et al. 2000).
The trends in global oceanic monsoon rainfall have dominated the trends in total
GMP over the past three decades (Wang and Ding 2006; Zhou et al. 2008b; Hsu
et al. 2011). The GMP showed an increasing trend from 1979 to 2008 based on the
GPCP rainfall data, while it revealed a downward tendency over the same period
using the CMAP dataset (Fig. 2.3). Zhou et al. (2008b) found that the oceanic
monsoon rainfall derived from the GPCP dataset was highly correlated with that of
the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), which might be the best available
precipitation estimates over the ocean. This suggests that the trend in GMP obtained
from the GPCP data is probably more reliable than that from the CMAP data. With
a focus on the monsoon change at the hemispheric scale, Wang et al. (2013) found
consistent enhancements of NH monsoon rainfall and of the Walker and Hadley
circulations from 1979 to 2011.
12 P.-C. Hsu

(a) (b)

Fig. 2.3 a Time series of global monsoon precipitation (GMP; units: 10 9 m 3 day−1) calculated
from (s) the GPCP and b the CMAP datasets for 1979–2008. The linear trend of each time series is
indicated by a dotted line, with the linear trend [units: 10 9 m 3 day−1(29 year)−1] noted on each
panel. (Adapted from Hsu et al. 2011)

2.3.2 Factors Controlling the GMP Change

Variations in GMP can be attributed to tropical atmospheric responses to varying

forcing fields, such as SST, shortwave forcing resulting from the effect of aerosols, and
longwave forcing induced by growing greenhouse gas emissions. Wang et al. (2012)
discussed the mechanisms regulating the NH summer monsoon rainfall over land and
adjacent ocean areas. They suggested that the zonal contrast of eastern and western
Pacific SST plays an important role in causing the enhanced NH monsoon precipita-
tion. The recent trend of eastern Pacific cooling and western Pacific warming favors the
high (low) pressure anomaly in the eastern (western) Pacific and the trades that
transport moisture into the Asian and African monsoon regions (Wang et al. 2013).
Moreover, the intensification of NH monsoon rainfall is consistent with the increased
inter-hemispheric thermal contrast. The pattern associated with a warmer NH and a
cooler SH over the past three decades would induce strengthened cross-equatorial
flows driven by meridional pressure gradients. As a result, more moisture is transported
from the SH into the NH, favoring the monsoon rainfall in the NH (Wang et al. 2012).
Long-term simulations under different forcing fields may help to clarify the
factors controlling the observed GMP changes. Zhou et al. (2008b) showed that the
observed weakening trend in global land monsoon precipitation over the second
half of the twentieth century was successfully reproduced by the NCAR
Community Atmosphere Model version 2 (CAM2) driven by observed SSTs
between 1950 and 2000. The results indicated that the changes in GMP over land
may have arisen from oceanic forcing. In the second half of the twentieth century
(1950–2000), significant warming trends were observed over the central-eastern
Pacific Ocean and the tropical Indian Ocean. Zhou et al. (2008b) further argued that
the recent warming over the central-eastern Pacific Ocean and the tropical Indian
Ocean contributed to the reduction of global land monsoon precipitation during the
period of 1950–2000 reported by Wang and Ding (2006).
In addition to the SST influence, aerosols have been reported to have significant
impacts on regional rainfall in several ways (e.g., Turner and Annamalai 2012).
2 Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate 13

Focusing on the effect of volcanic aerosols, Kim et al. (2008) analyzed the GMP
changes in the twentieth-century simulations for the period of 1951–1999 from the
models participating in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP3). They found that among 21 CMIP3 models, those with volcanic
aerosols simulated the decreasing trends of NH land monsoon rainfall since 1950,
suggesting that the natural volcanic forcing could be an important contributor to the
reduction of global land monsoon precipitation. The results of Kim et al. (2008)
were similar to the findings of Lambert et al. (2004), who argued that variation in
land precipitation was controlled more by the natural shortwave forcing of volcanic
aerosols than by the longwave forcing of greenhouse gases. External forcing
associated with volcanic aerosols plays a crucial role in multi-decadal variability of
torrential precipitation in both observations and model simulations (Broccoli et al.
2003; Gillett et al. 2004).

2.4 Future Projections of Global Monsoon

The rise in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans—namely,
global warming—has been observed since the late twentieth century and is pro-
jected with very high probability to continue in the coming century (e.g., IPCC
2007, 2013). Estimates of GM change under a warmer future climate primarily rely
on projections from climate models. Thanks to great advances in computing power
and numerical model developments, state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation
models (AGCMs) and ocean-atmosphere, coupled general circulation models
(CGCMs) driven by various global-warming forcings, may help to provide con-
sistent projected signals and enhance our confidence in these future GM changes.
A number of robust signals related to GM change were identified from the recent
modeling studies based on various multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches (Hsu
et al. 2012, 2013; Chen and Sun 2013; Kitoh et al. 2013; Lee and Wang 2014). In
this section, future changes in GM domain, total amount of monsoon precipitation,
extreme monsoon precipitation events, timing of monsoon onset and retreat, and
inter-annual variability of GM are reviewed and discussed.

2.4.1 Changes in GM Domain

Based on simulations of three high-resolution (20–50 km) AGCMs forced by

various future SST warming patterns during the twenty-first century, Hsu et al.
(2012) indicated a consistent increase of GMA under global warming. The GMA
increased around 7–9 % from the end of the twentieth century to the end of the
twenty-first century in these simulations. Marked expansions occurred over the
oceans, which accounted for 80–90 % of the total contribution to the GMA change
in these simulations.
14 P.-C. Hsu

The expansions of GM domain were also projected in the MMEs of CMIP3 and
CMIP5 models, although the spread of individual models is large (Hsu et al. 2012,
2013; Kitoh et al. 2013; Lee and Wang 2014). As shown in Fig. 2.4, the GMA
projections show a 3–6 % increase from the late twentieth century (1979–2003) to
the end of the twenty-first century (2075–2099) based on many ensemble members
(*20 or more) of CMIP5 models under the Representative Concentration Pathways
4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and of CMIP3 models under the Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (Chen and Sun 2013; Hsu et al. 2013; Kitoh et al.
2013). The averaged expansion of GMA was larger (*9 %) when the models were
forced with the higher greenhouse gas emissions under the RCP8.5 scenario (Kitoh
et al. 2013). Even so, Hsu et al. (2013) indicated that the expansion rate of GMA is
not significantly correlated with the increase in global mean surface air temperature.
Rather than analyzing MMEs based on all CMIP3 or all CMIP5 models, Lee and
Wang (2014) conducted an MME analysis based on the four models among 20
CMIP5 models that most accurately simulated monsoon precipitation characteris-
tics during the period of 1980–2005. Similar to the results of all models’ MME, the
four best models’ MME (B4MME) projects an increased GMA with a change rate
of 4.6 % (2.6 % for land and 6.3 % for ocean) from the end of the twentieth century
(1980–2005) to the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2095) under the RCP4.5
scenario. However, this change does not exceed the uncertainty measured by a
standard deviation of inter-model spread.

Fig. 2.4 Averages and inter-model standard deviations [red (blue) bars with whiskers] of GMA,
GMP and GMI change rates between RCP4.5 (A1B) from 2075 until 2099, and historical
(20C3 M) from 1979 to 2003 in 19 CMIP5 (24 CMIP3) simulations. Pink (light blue) bars show
the change rates calculated from the CMIP5 (CMIP3) multi-model ensemble mean precipitation.
(Adapted from Hsu et al. 2013)
2 Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate 15

According to the CMIP5 MME results, under the RCP4.5, the increased GMA
will be distributed along the edges of the present-day GMA, especially for the global
oceanic monsoon regions (Hsu et al. 2013). This is consistent with the B4MME
results of Lee and Wang (2014), which suggested that the monsoon domain will tend
to increase over oceanic monsoon regions while it will apparently not change over
land except for a westward movement of Asian continental monsoon areas. Based on
the RCP8.5 simulations, Kitoh et al. (2013) identified GMA expansions mainly over
the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia.
The future expansion of GMA may be attributed to both an increased annual
range of precipitation under global warming (Chou and Lan 2012) and a stronger
summer-to-annual rainfall ratio (Hsu et al. 2012; Lee and Wang 2014). Hsu et al.
(2013) analyzed the absolute change of monthly rainfall within the GMA and found
a prominent increase in local summer monsoon rainfall over the globe. Projected
winter rainfall within the GMA, however, shows less significant change, with a
small increase (decrease) in the NH (SH). These results indicate that global
warming may induce a wetter summer over the GM regions, and enhance the
contrast between rainy and dry seasons (especially in the SH).

2.4.2 Changes in GM Precipitation and Intensity

The expansion of the GMA may cause changes in GMP, as a larger monsoon
domain would receive more rainfall. As shown in Fig. 2.4, the MME indicates a 6–
9 % increase in GMP under the SRES A1B and RCP4.5 scenarios (Hsu et al. 2013),
and much more (*16.6 %) in the RCP8.5 scenarios from the end of the twentieth
century to the end of the twenty-first century (Kitoh et al. 2013). Due to a greater
rate of increase of GMP than of GMA, the GM intensity, which is defined as the
monsoon precipitation amount per unit area, will tend to strengthen in future
warmer climate. The increase of GMI from the end of the twentieth century until the
end of the twenty-first century ranges from 2 to 4 % in the CMIP3 and CMIP5
MME results, respectively (Fig. 2.4).
Precipitation extremes occurring in all regional monsoons are projected to
increase at a much greater rate than the GMP (Kitoh et al. 2013). For example,
GMP will increase by −6.5 to 12.9 % by the end of the twenty-first century,
according to the RCP8.5 simulations, while the simple daily precipitation intensity
index, defined as total precipitation divided by the number of rainy days (≥1 mm),
shows—0.7 to 14.7 % increase. The index of seasonal maximum precipitation total
over five consecutive days within the global monsoon areas shows an even greater
increase (6.2–22.1 %) under the RCP8.5 scenario. As well as the increase in
extreme precipitation events, indices of extreme dry events (such as maximum
number of consecutive no-rain days) within the GMA are projected to increase (Lu
and Fu 2010; Turner and Annamalai 2012). This suggests that although the fre-
quency of precipitation events would decrease in a future warmer climate, the
precipitation intensity of individual events could be greater (Kitoh et al. 2013).
16 P.-C. Hsu

Lee and Wang (2014) illustrated the spatial distribution of GMP change based on
the B4MME (Fig. 2.5). The CMIP5 models projected a remarkable enhancement
(reduction) of monsoon rainfall over Asia (northern America). Monsoon rainfall over
Australia and Africa also show positive contributions to the increased GMP, but with
less significance and robustness. The relative contributions from regional monsoons
to the GMP projected by the B4MME generally agree with those derived from the
CMIP5 models’ MME (Kitoh et al. 2013); in other words, the Eastern-hemisphere
monsoons will produce more precipitation than the Western-hemisphere monsoons,
and the NH monsoons will produce more precipitation than the SH monsoons. This
means that future changes in GMP can be characterized by a prominent east–west
contrast and a north–south asymmetry. As with the summer mean monsoon rainfall
projections, the extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase most
significantly in the Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that the Asian monsoon is
particularly sensitive to global warming (Kitoh et al. 2013).
To better understand the physical processes that cause the increase in GMP
projected by the CMIP5 models, Hsu et al. (2013) examined a column-integrated
moisture budget within the GMA in present-day and future-climate simulations,
respectively.

Fig. 2.5 Changes in a annual mean precipitation, and b annual range of precipitation. The annual
range is defined as absolute value of JJAS mean minus DJFM mean precipitation rate. Changes are
given for the RCP4.5 (A1B) simulation for 2070–2095 relative to the historical simulation for
1980–2005, in CMIP5 (CMIP3) in the upper (bottom) panels. Red contours delineate the GMA.
(Adapted from Lee and Wang 2014)
2 Global Monsoon in a Changing Climate 17

The column-integrated moisture tendency equation is

@w
þ \; r
ðqVÞ [ ; ¼ E  P ð2:1Þ
@t

where w is precipitable water (total column water vapor), t is time, < > indicates a
vertical integration from 1,000 to 100 hPa, ∇ is the horizontal gradient operator, q is
specific humidity, V is the horizontal vector wind, E is evaporation, and P is
precipitation. This equation assumes that the condensates immediately fall to the
surface as precipitation after they form. Although w and q differ between the
present-day state and the future-climate state, they are assumed to be in a state of
equilibrium in both periods. Thus, for each period, the tendency term (∂w/∂t)
vanishes. The diagnostic equation of GMP change is then derived based on the
difference of the remaining terms between the present-day and future-climate states.
The change in GMP may be attributed to changes in horizontal moisture advection,
moisture convergence associated with mass convergence (or vertical motion), and
surface evaporation, as shown in the following equation:

DGMP ¼ D\V
rq [  D\qr
V [ þ DE: ð2:2Þ

The operator Δ represents the difference between future-climate and present-day

simulations (future minus present-day).
The diagnostic results of CMIP5 models show that increases in both moisture
convergence and surface evaporation will contribute to increased GMP, whereas
moisture advection will contribute insignificantly to GMP change (Fig. 2.6a).
Because the changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation affect both moisture
convergence and surface evaporation, it is necessary to examine their relative
contributions. The changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation may
be decomposed into three terms, as shown below:

D\q  D [ ¼ \qpd  DD [  \Dq  Dpd [  \Dq  DD [ ; ð2:3Þ

DE ¼ D½ajVj(qs  qa )]
ð2:4Þ
¼ a½DjVj  (qs  qa )pd þ jVjpd Dðqs  qa ) þ DjVj  Dðqs  qa )],

where D denotes divergence, a ¼ Lq CE , L is latent heat, ρ is the air density at sea

level, CE is the exchange coefficient, |V| is surface wind speed, qs and qa are the
specific humidity at sea surface and at 10 m, respectively, and the subscript ‘pd’
denotes the present-day simulation. The first term on the right-hand sides of
Eqs. (2.3) and (2.4) is associated with circulation change, which may be regarded as
a dynamic contributor. The second term involves the change of water-vapor con-
tent; thus, it reflects the thermodynamic effect on the GMP. The third term is a
nonlinear term including the effects of both moisture and circulation changes.
A robust feature simulated by the CMIP5 models is that the thermodynamic
effect due to increased water-vapor content plays an important role in enhancing
18 P.-C. Hsu

Fig. 2.6 a Moisture

processes responsible for the
GMP change based on 19
CMIP5 MME. Left to right
changes in GMP, horizontal
moisture advection, moisture
convergence, and surface
evaporation within the GMA
(Units: 1014 W). Whiskers
indicate inter-model standard
deviations of the 19 models
b and c are the same as (a),
except for the diagnoses of
moisture convergence change
and evaporation change,
respectively. Left to right
contributions of dynamic
effect associated with
circulation change,
thermodynamic component
associated with water vapor
change, and the nonlinear
product of the two changes.
(Adapted from Hsu et al.
2013)

both moisture convergence (Fig. 2.6b) and evaporation (Fig. 2.6c). However, the
dynamic effect is less robust and shows different contributions to moisture con-
vergence and evaporation between different models. The CMIP5 models suggest
that a weaker monsoon convergence flow under global warming will have a ten-
dency to decrease monsoon rainfall (Fig. 2.6b). Although this dynamic component
offsets the thermodynamic component to a large extent, the thermodynamic
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