Iran-Israel War 2025: Dynamics,

Implications & Future

Scenarios
Subject: Current Affairs-CSS-PMS
By: Imran Zahoor
Ph. D in IR
[email protected]
Contact:0321-4800309
 Lecture Outline
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
 Iran-Israel War: An Overview

 Historical Foundations of the Iran-Israel

Relationship

 Iran Issues and Problems with Israel

 Israel Issues and Problems with Iran

 International Responses

 Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities

 Regional and Global Effects

 Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict

Resolution
Iran-Israel War:
An Overview
 c
Iran-Israel War: An Overview
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

 June 12: Israel initiates “Operation Rising

Lion,” targeting Iran’s nuclear & military
sites in Tehran, Natanz, Isfahan, Bushehr,
Qom, and missile production sites.

 Problem rooted in decades of hostility,

ideology, and strategic opposition.

 Not a conventional war—includes cyber,

proxy, and intelligence warfare.

 Conflict intensified by nuclear concerns,

regional alliances, and external
interventions.
Iran-Israel War: An Overview

 Israel conducts preemptive strikes,

cyber operations, and intelligence-
based targeting missions.

 Major global powers react

diplomatically, economically, and
militarily to conflict.

 Rising civilian casualties and

displacement worsen humanitarian
crises region-wide.

 Understanding this conflict is critical for

peace and stability prospects.
Historical Foundations of the
Iran-Israel Relationship
 Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship

1-From Allies to Adversaries (Pre-

1979)
 1948: Israel is established.
 1949: Iran becomes the second Muslim-
majority country (after Turkey) to recognize
Israel under Raza Shah Pahlavi.
 1957 onwards: Mossad (Israel) and SAVAK
(Iran’s intelligence agency) establish covert
ties.
 1950s-1970s: Close economic, intelligence, and
military cooperation between Iran and Israel.
o Both oppose Arab nationalism led by
Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser.
o Iran aids Israel through oil exports and
intelligence sharing.
Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

 1960s-70s: Implementation of Israel's

“Periphery Doctrine”—forming alliances
with non-Arab states (Iran, Turkey,
Ethiopia) to counter Arab hostility.

2-Iranian Revolution and the Paradigm

Shift
 1979:
o Islamic Revolution overthrows the Shah.
o Ayatollah Khomeini established the
Islamic Republic with anti-Western and
anti-Israel ideology.
o Iran stopped diplomatic and commercial
ties with Israel.
 Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

3-Emergence of Proxy Warfare

(1980s–Early 2000s)
 1982:
o Hezbollah founded in Lebanon with
Iranian IRGC support following Israel’s
invasion of Lebanon.
 1990s:
o Iran supports Palestinian Islamic Jihad
(PIJ) and Hamas with funding and
training.
 1992-1994: Iran allegedly linked to terror
attacks on Israeli/Jewish targets in
Argentina (Israeli Embassy and AMIA
Jewish Center bombings).
Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

 1990s–2000s: Israel reportedly launched

covert operations targeting Iranian arms
transfers and Hezbollah infrastructure.
 2006:
 Israel-Hezbollah War—Iran provided
weapons and logistics to Hezbollah.
 Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

4-Escalation Points of Conflict

• 2002: Exile group NCRI reveals secret

Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak.
• 2006–2010:
• UN and international community
impose sanctions over Iran’s nuclear
ambitions.
• 2010–2012:
• Series of assassinations of Iranian
nuclear scientists, widely attributed to
Israel.

• 2015: Iran signs JCPOA (nuclear deal)

with P5+1; Israel vocally opposes.
Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
• 2018:
• U.S. withdraws from JCPOA under
Trump, backed by Israel.
• Israel reveals alleged “Iranian nuclear
archive” from a Mossad raid.
• 2022–2024:
• IAEA reports Iranian non-compliance
with NPT.
• Enrichment reaches near-weapons
grade; Israel escalates warnings of
military action.
• 2014–present:
• Iran supports Houthi rebels in Yemen;
Houthis claim attacks on Israel post-
2023 Gaza war.
 Historical Foundations of Iran-Israel Relationship
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

• 2021: Israeli-owned ship attacks in Gulf

of Oman; attributed to Iran.

• 2023–2024:
• Escalation in Israel-Gaza war
(October 2023) triggered broader
proxy responses from Iran-backed
groups across the region.
Iran Issues and Problems
with Israel
 Iran Issues and Problems with Israel
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Ideological Opposition

• Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has

adopted a revolutionary Islamist doctrine
that does not recognize Israel's right to
exist.

• Iran refers to Israel as the “Zionist regime”

and views it as an illegitimate occupier of
Muslim lands, especially Jerusalem.
 Iran Issues and Problems with Israel
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Support for the Palestinian Cause

• Iran sees itself as a defender of oppressed

Muslims and strongly supports Palestinian
resistance groups, especially:
• Hamas in Gaza
• Islamic Jihad
• Hizballah
• Rejects peace deals e.g., Oslo Accords as
betrayals of Palestinian rights.
 Iran Issues and Problems with Israel
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Opposition to Israeli Regional

Influence

• Iran views Israel’s deepening ties with Gulf

Arab states, Egypt, and Jordan as part of a
U.S.-led axis to contain Iranian power.

• It accuses Israel of trying to become a

dominant regional hegemon.
Iran Issues and Problems with Israel

Security Concerns over Israeli Covert

Actions
 Iran blames Israel of:
o Assassinating nuclear scientists
o Cyberattacks
o Sabotaging IRGC and missile development
 Sees Israel as a covert aggressor using non-
conventional means.
Nuclear Hypocrisy
 Iran criticizes Israel's undeclared nuclear
arsenal while Israel pushes for sanctions
against Iran’s peaceful nuclear program.
 Iran Issues and Problems with Israel
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Oppose Normalization of Arab States

with Israel
• Iran views Israel’s normalization of ties with
Gulf and Arab states (e.g., UAE, Bahrain) as
a strategic encirclement.

• Tehran sees these agreements as a betrayal

of the Palestinian cause and a Western-led
plot to isolate Iran regionally.

• This led Iran to increase proxy activities and

cyber operations against Israel.
 Israel Issues and
Problems with Iran
 Israel Issues and Problems with Iran
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Existential Threat Rhetoric

 Iranian leaders (e.g., former President
Ahmadinejad) have publicly called for the
elimination of the Israeli state, heightening
Israeli fears of annihilation.
 Iran's Quds Force actively funds and trains
anti-Israel militias.

Nuclear Weapons Program

 Israel sees Iran’s uranium enrichment and
missile program as a direct existential
threat.
 It has vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring
nuclear weapons—“by any means
necessary,” including military strikes.
 Israel Issues and Problems with Iran

Terror Network & Proxy Encirclement

 Iran supports and arms:
 Hezbollah in Lebanon (over 150,000 rockets)
 Hamas/Islamic Jihad in Gaza
 Syrian regime, creating a land corridor to
Israel’s northern border
 Houthis in Yemen (targeting Gulf states friendly
to Israel)
 Israel sees this as a strategy of proxy
encirclement and attrition warfare.

Destabilization of the Region

 Iran’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and
Lebanon is seen as an effort to create a Shi’a
axis of influence from Tehran to the
Mediterranean.
 Israel views this as both ideological
expansionism and military encroachment.
 Israel Issues and Problems with Iran
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Use of Syria as a Forward Military Base

 Iran’s entrenchment in Syria, including IRGC
bases, drone facilities, and missile depots
near the Golan Heights, is seen by Israel as a
red line.
 Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes
in Syria targeting Iranian and Hezbollah
assets.
Violation of International Norms
 Israel argues Iran regularly violates UN
resolutions, especially concerning:
 Missile tests
 Enrichment thresholds
 Use of proxies against civilian
populations
 Israel Issues and Problems with Iran
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
Use of Syria as a Forward
Military Base
 Iran’s entrenchment in Syria, including
IRGC bases, drone facilities, and missile
depots near the Golan Heights, is seen by
Israel as a red line.

 Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes

in Syria targeting Iranian and Hezbollah
assets, aiming to prevent the creation of a
northern front.

 This ongoing shadow war threatens to

escalate into full-scale conflict if Iranian
assets strike Israeli territory directly from
Syria
International Responses
 International Responses
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
United States
 Strong support for Israel, but potential
hesitation for direct military involvement.
 U.S. intelligence agencies confirm Israeli
strikes have delayed Iran’s nuclear breakout
capability by 2–3 years.
 USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group deployed to
the Persian Gulf; additional surveillance and
electronic warfare aircraft repositioned in
Bahrain and Qatar.
 The U.S. warns Iran against targeting U.S.
bases or regional allies.
 Back-channel communications with Qatar
and Oman to reach Iranian officials.
 International Responses

European Powers (UK, France, Germany)

 Diplomatic Messaging:
o Immediate calls for ceasefire and de-
escalation
o Emphasis on diplomatic resolution and re-
engagement with nonproliferation
frameworks.
 Security & Strategic Concerns:
o Anxiety over regional instability, oil price
shocks, and refugee movements.
o Public concern over radiation hazards from
damaged Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
 Civilian Protection:
o Evacuation orders issued for EU nationals in
Tehran, Isfahan, and Gulf states.
International Responses
Russia and China
• Russia:
• Calls for mutual restraint and
preservation of Iranian sovereignty.
• Criticizes Israeli strikes as “unilateral
aggression,” but stops short of direct
condemnation in the Security Council.
• Offers mediation
• China:
• Protecting oil supply lines from the
Persian Gulf.
• Warns against disruption" of shipping
lanes in Strait of Hormuz.
• Aligns with Russia at the UN Security
Council in opposing expanded sanctions
or Israeli military action.
 International Responses
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
United Nations & IAEA
 United Nations:
o Secretary-General issues an urgent appeal
for de-escalation and emphasizes
international humanitarian law obligations.
o UN Security Council meets in emergency
session; no consensus reached due to P5
divisions.
 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA):
o Confirms “possible radiological
contamination” at Isfahan and Natanz
following Israeli strikes.
o Warns of severe risks to civilian populations
and long-term environmental damage.
o Urges all parties to respect the integrity of
nuclear sites and allow inspections
 International Responses
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
Saudi Arabia
• Condemn Isreal attack Iran
• Emphasize the need to avoid regional
escalation.
• Diplomatic Role:
• Quietly supports Western diplomatic
efforts; may be involved in back-
channel talks with Iran via Oman.
• Internal Concerns:
• Mobilizes air defenses in eastern
provinces and along Gulf coast.
• Economic pressure due to rising oil
prices and stock market volatility.
 International Responses
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
Qatar
• Mediation Efforts:
• Acts as a neutral intermediary,
facilitating indirect communication
between the U.S. and Iran.
• Hosts emergency sessions of Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) members.

• Regional Concerns:
• Urges protection of civilian
infrastructure and warns against Israeli
strikes endangering regional stability.
• Offers humanitarian aid corridors,
possibly through Oman or Iraq.
Current Dynamics and Military
Capabilities
Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Iran’s Military Doctrine and Assets

• Ballistic missiles & drone swarms:
• Key Arsenal: 3,000+ ballistic missiles
(incl. 600+ Kheibar Shekan: 1,450km
range, maneuverable re-entry
vehicles).
• Drone Dominance: Shahed-136
loitering munitions (2,500km range);
used in 80% of June 2025 attacks.
Asymmetric warfare via proxies:
• Proxy Network: Hezbollah (150,000
rockets), Houthis, Hamas (tunnel
warfare).
 Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

• IRGC-Quds Force Command:

• Directs proxy operations (e.g., Kataib
Hezbollah strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq).
• June 2025 losses: 5 senior IRGC
commanders killed in Israeli decapitation
strikes.
Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Israel’s Military Doctrine and Assets

• Qualitative Military Edge (QME):
• Air Superiority: 36 F-35I Adir stealth
fighters.
• Missile Defense: Iron Dome (90%
intercept rate vs. rockets); David’s Sling
(used against Iranian mid-range
missiles).
• Pre-emptive strike doctrine:
• Operation Rising Lion
• Deterrence Calculus
 Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Intelligence & Covert Operations:

• Mossad Cyber Ops: Disabled 40% of
Iranian air defenses pre-strike.
• Sabotage Campaigns: 7 nuclear
scientists eliminated since 2023.

The "Shadow War" to Overt Conflict

• Covert to Overt: April 2024 Damascus
consulate strike → Iran’s first direct
missile barrage on Israel.
• Tipping Point: Iran’s 90% uranium
enrichment (June 2025 IAEA report).
 Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

Israel's Military Advantages:

 Air superiority and advanced air force.

 Sophisticated missile defense systems (Iron

Dome, Arrow 2/3, David's Sling).

 Precision strike capabilities.

 Intelligence gathering and covert operations.

 US military support (THAAD batteries, Aegis

vessels, intelligence sharing).
Current Dynamics and Military Capabilities
Iran's Military Advantages
 Vast Missile/Drone Arsenal: Quantity over
quality, aiming to overwhelm defenses.

 Proxy Network: Enables multi-front

asymmetric warfare via groups like
Hezbollah.

 Hardened Underground Facilities: Deeply

buried assets resist airstrikes.

 Strong Cyber Capabilities: Potential to

disrupt Israeli infrastructure.

 Large Manpower: Significant reserve forces

(Basij) and regional recruits.
Regional and Global
Effects
 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309
1-Civilian Casualties and
Displacement:
 Iran: At least 657 killed and 2,000+
wounded, with strikes damaging
infrastructure in Tehran, Isfahan, and
Qom .

 Israel: 24 civilians killed, 685+ injured, and

widespread destruction in Haifa,
Beersheba, and Tel Aviv.
 A single Iranian missile strike in Haifa on
June 20 injured 33 people.
 Displacement: Over 200,000
Israelis displaced due to missile threats.
 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

2-Nuclear Safety Risks

 IAEA confirmed radioactive contamination

risks at Iran’s Natanz and Arak facilities
after Israeli strikes.

 Director Rafael Grossi warned that a direct

hit on the Bushehr nuclear plant could
cause catastrophic radiation releases,

 Iran relocated enriched uranium to hidden

sites to evade destruction, complicating
disarmament efforts.
 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

3-Global Economic and Trade

Disruptions
 Energy Markets:
o Oil prices surged 15%+ amid fears of
Strait of Hormuz closures. China
pressured Iran to de-escalate to avoid
sustained high prices.
 Supply Chain Fractures:
o Afghanistan sought Russian food
imports as Iran trade halted. Shipping
routes in the Mediterranean and Red
Sea disrupted.
Regional and Global Effects
4-Diplomatic and Social Fracturing
 Pro-Iran rallies erupted in Baghdad, Beirut,
and Tehran.

 Security Council meeting (June 20) saw

mutual accusations but no resolution. Russia
accused Israel of "blatant disregard" for
diplomacy.

 Arab States: Jordan stopped Iranian missiles;

Qatar warned Israel against targeting
economic sites.

 Domestic Pressures: 83% of Jewish Israelis

backed strikes, while Arab citizens opposed
them.
 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

5-Proxy Escalation in Middle East

• Hezbollah, Houthis launched new attacks

• Iraq militias threatened US forces

• Red Sea shipping lanes threatened

• Syria clashes intensified within days

• Israel–Lebanon front heats up again

 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

6- Destabilized Iranian Economy

• GDP down ~4% (Q2 2025)

• Inflation passed 50% after strikes

• Rial collapsed on black market

• Food prices rose 35% overnight

• Poverty affects ~50% population now

 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

7-Diplomatic Pressure on USA

• Pentagon deployed destroyers, air units

• Congress debates war powers resolution

• Allies push for de-escalation steps

• China, Russia condemn Israeli strikes

• US credibility now under scrutiny

 Regional and Global Effects
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

8-Middle East Power Dynamics

Shifting

• Israel delayed Iran’s program 3 years

• Gulf states eye nuclear options

• Turkey, Qatar call for diplomacy

• China proposes regional security plan

• Iran's deterrence now seriously weakened

Pathways to De-escalation
and Conflict Resolution
 Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

1. Backchannel Diplomacy

 Neutral state mediators maintain

confidential communications
 Use trusted intermediaries outside political
command structure
 Avoid publicity to build trust and flexibility
 Develop draft proposals without immediate
binding terms
 Maintain contact during active conflict, not
post-war
Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

2. Third-Party Mediation

 Invite neutral powers to host formal talks

 Empower international diplomats trusted
by both countries
 Propose step-by-step agreements over
maximum outcomes
 Include regional stakeholders with
influence on both sides
 Create binding de-escalation timetables
monitored externally
 Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

3. Regional Security Talks

 Initiate multilateral conference with key
regional players
 Build shared threat perception to foster
cooperation
 Encourage coordinated de-escalation
efforts across all fronts
 Address nuclear security issues and mutual
inspections
 Promote Arab-Israeli cooperation to
counter Iranian fears
Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

4. UN Security Council Resolution

 Pass binding resolution enforcing

immediate ceasefire
 Authorize peacekeepers or observers in
border zones
 Ban offensive weapons transfers to
conflict regions
 Empower UN envoy to coordinate de-
escalation logistics
 Use Chapter VII authority for enforcement
legitimacy
 Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

5. Mutual De-escalation Measures

 End cyber and drone warfare operations

immediately
 Announce mutual restraint on attacks near
civilians
 Avoid targeting key infrastructure
 Set synchronized deadlines for future
military stand-downs
Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

6. Track II Diplomacy (Unofficial)

 Engage retired officials in unofficial peace
dialogues
 Host joint workshops through neutral think
tanks
 Launch youth exchanges across border
digital platforms
 Promote shared narratives through non-
state media outlets
 Develop peace frameworks without
government commitments yet
 Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

7. Economic Leverage & Incentives

 Offer sanctions relief for clear peace

milestones
 Freeze military aid to encourage serious
negotiations
 Link oil access to cooperation on ceasefires
 Facilitate humanitarian banking channels
without political strings
Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

8. Media and Narrative Control

 Launch peace-first campaigns on regional
media platforms
 Counter misinformation with transparent
fact-checking tools
 Promote civilian stories to humanize both
populations
 Showcase war costs over victory narratives
constantly
 Coordinate cross-border media pledges to
avoid escalation
 Pathways to De-escalation and Conflict Resolution
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

9. Cyber Restraint Agreements

 Set red lines for digital retaliation

thresholds
 Use third-party verification for cyberattack
attributions
 Prioritize protection of health, water, and
grids
 Develop real-time communication for
cyber incident warnings
 Penalize rogue cyber actors within state
borders
 Research Links
Mr. Imran Zahoor Ph. D in IR 0321-4800309

 https://www.nation.com.pk/21-Jun-2025/pakistan-urges-unsc-to-end-israel-iran-conflict
 https://visionias.in/current-affairs/upsc-daily-news-summary/article/2025-06-21/the-indian-
express/international-relations/expert-explains-understanding-pakistans-balancing-act-on-iran
 https://www.dawn.com/news/1918537/experts-warn-intensifying-iran-israel-conflict-could-
destabilise-broader-middle-east
 https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/06/21/trump-conveys-pakistans-concerns-over-iran-
israel-war-emphasizes-diplomacy/
 https://www.dawn.com/news/1917040
 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/18/iran-israel-conflict-raises-alarm-in-pakistan-amid-
fears-over-own-security
 https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/on-edge-the-israel-iran-war-holds-the-region-in-bated-
breath-211873
 https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/israel-iran-war-netanyahu-us-scenarios/
 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/13/how-the-world-is-reacting-to-israel-attacks-on-iran-
nuclear-military-sites
 https://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/israeli-iranian-conflict-and-humanitarian-
considerations-june-20-2025
 https://www.mei.edu/publications/israel-iran-war-scenarios-days-and-years-ahead
 https://www.iiss.org/events/2025/062/israeliran-conflict-current-assessment-and-future-
scenarios/