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Current Perspectives
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Current Perspectives on
Current Perspectives on Modern Equity Markets
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form
whatsoever, by photography or xerography, or by any other means, by
broadcast or transmission, by translation into any kind of language, nor
by recording electronically or otherwise, without permission in writing
from Knight Capital Group, Inc.
ISBN: 978-0-578-06874-9
index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Preface
Thomas M. Joyce
c h a i r m a n & c h i e f e x ec u t i v e o f f i c e r ,
k n i g h t c a p i ta l g r o u p, i n c .
v
vi preface
November 2010
chapter
(
Historical Perspective
on Equity Markets
How We Got Here
by James J. Angel, Ph .D., CFA
a s s o c i at e p r o f es s o r o f f i n a n c e , m c d o n o u g h
s c h o o l o f b u s i n es s , g e o r g e to w n u n i v e r s i t y
1
2 historical perspective on equity markets
to send an order for paper clips to the New York Paper Clip Exchange.
Instead, we would just call our local office supply store. Even most finan-
cial products trade without heavily structured and regulated exchanges.
Currencies, bonds, loans, and many derivative markets thrive without
centralized exchanges.
This difference between equity markets and other markets is driven
by information. It is relatively easy to price most goods and services and
even most financial products. The price of paper clips does not fluctuate
much, and it is pretty easy for customers to know if they got a good
price. Bonds are similar. If we know the term structure of interest rates
and current yield spreads, we can price most bonds. Knowing the spot
price of an asset and an estimate of volatility leads to accurate pricing
of most derivatives.
Equities are another story. No one really knows what an equity secu-
rity is worth. While owning a high-grade bond results in a nearly certain
cash flow, the cash flow accruing to an equity holder is highly uncer-
tain. Even identifying the correct discount rate to use is a matter of great
controversy and debate. Most pricing models for equities are highly
sensitive to the assumptions used. Small changes in assumptions can
lead to large changes in the estimated value. Indeed, Fischer Black—one
of the architects of the famous Black-Scholes option-pricing formula—
felt that markets got prices “within a factor of two … at least 90%” of
the time.1
Furthermore, while there is little private or inside information about
government bonds and currencies, there is a good deal of private infor-
mation about the value of the more than 10,000 equities that trade in
the United States and the more than 30,000 equities that trade world-
wide. When investors trade, they reveal some of their private informa-
tion about the value of a stock. This makes information about recent
trades and information about trading interest extremely valuable.
1 Fischer Black, “Noise,” Journal of Finance 41, no. 3 (July 1986): 533.
current perspectives on modern equity markets 3
Naturally, traders and investors do not want to give away this valuable
information for free. Keeping it confidential gives them an advantage
over other market participants. However, traders do need good market
information to make sound trading decisions. As traders often note, they
want other investors to reveal confidential information while they want
to reveal none of their own. This leads to a so-called prisoner’s dilemma
of trading,2 in which each investor is better off revealing no information,
even though all investors would be better off if each revealed a little.
Organized equity exchanges arose as a solution to this prisoner’s
dilemma. Organized exchanges and trading platforms require the disclo-
sure of at least some information as part of the price of access to the
exchange. Participants agree in advance to follow the exchange rules,
even though they may prefer not to disclose particular information about
their own trading activity. Some of that information is known only within
the trading system. For example, on the old floor of the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE), brokers sometimes revealed partial information to
other brokers to find the other side of the trade. In modern “dark pools,”
the information is revealed only to the pool operator, who attempts to
match trading interest.
Assuring proper settlement and reducing counterparty risk are other
reasons for the existence of organized exchanges, especially derivative
exchanges. Having the buyer and seller agree on the terms of the trade
does not necessarily guarantee that it will be consummated according
to those terms. Exchanges quickly learned that they had to limit their
membership to honest participants with adequate financial resources
who would live up to their trading commitments.
2 The prisoner’s dilemma is a famous problem from game theory. In it, the police hold two
prisoners and interrogate them separately. The police offer each prisoner the choice
of whether to cooperate, with a penalty based on what the prisoner decides. In each
case, the prisoner receives a less severe penalty by cooperating, even though both pris-
oners are better off if neither cooperates with the police. See Anatol Rapoport and A. M.
Chammah, Prisoner’s Dilemma (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1965).
4 historical perspective on equity markets
Along the lines of Sun Microsystems’ popular slogan “The network IS the
computer,” all market participants should remember that “The network
IS the market.” Focusing on only one part of the network can lead to
major misunderstandings of market behavior.
current perspectives on modern equity markets 5
3 Ernst Juerg Weber, “A Short History of Derivative Security Markets” (Social Science
Research Network, June 2008), http://ssrn.com/abstract=1141689 (accessed July 15,
2010).
4 In extremely rare cases, it is possible for courts to “pierce the corporate veil” and make
shareholders liable for the debts of the corporation. See Robert B. Thompson, “Piercing
the Corporate Veil: An Empirical Study,” Cornell Law Review 76 (1991): 1036–1074.
6 historical perspective on equity markets
6 Other important U.S. laws include the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936, the Trust Inden-
ture Act of 1939, the Investment Company Act of 1940, and the Investment Advisers Act
of 1940. These laws have been amended many times over the years.
8 historical perspective on equity markets
7 Donald E. Weeden, Weeden & Co.: The New York Stock Exchange and the Struggle over
a National Securities Market (Greenwich, CT: Author, 2002), and Ian Domowitz, “The
Mechanics of Automated Trade Execution Systems,” Journal of Financial Intermediation 1,
no. 2 (1990): 167–194.
8 William G. Christie and Paul H. Schultz, “Why Do NASDAQ Market Makers Avoid Odd-
Eighth Quotes?” Journal of Finance 49, no. 5 (Dec. 1994): 1813–1840.
9 SEC Release No. 34-37619A, Order Execution Obligations (Sept. 6, 1996).
10 SEC Release No. 34-42360, Order Directing the Exchanges and the National Association
of Securities Dealers, Inc. to Submit a Decimalization Implementation Plan Pursuant to
Section 11A(a)(3)(B) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Jan. 28, 2000).
current perspectives on modern equity markets 9
nies. American exchanges were slow to follow this trend, however. The
NASD spun off NASDAQ in 2000, as it gradually evolved from a system
that displayed decentralized dealer quotes into a centralized limit order-
matching engine. The NYSE demutualized in 2006 through its acquisi-
tion of the electronic Archipelago Exchange.
In 2005, the SEC promulgated Regulation NMS (National Market
System), which required stock exchanges to honor the quotes of other
exchanges but only if they were accessible for automatic execution.11
This forced the NYSE to automate its executions. At the same time, it
lessened the network advantage that the NYSE had enjoyed, as it made
it much easier for other markets to compete with the exchange. The
NYSE’s market share in its listed stocks fell from 79.1 percent in 2005 to
25.1 percent in 2009.12
Much like U.S. markets, global markets have also consolidated and
deconsolidated. Both NYSE Euronext and NASDAQ OMX are now
global exchange operators, and cross-border competition in Europe is
eroding the market shares of once dominant local exchanges. Moreover,
liquidity is increasingly provided by so-called high-frequency computer-
ized traders, rather than flesh-and-blood humans. The “flash crash” of
May 6, 2010, resulted in the implementation of stock-by-stock circuit
breakers, which were previously missing from the U.S. markets.
Equity markets have evolved a lot in recent years, and they will
continue to do so with developments in the technology and regulation
of financial markets. Specifically, changes in financial and information
technology will make new forms of trading possible, and regulators will
struggle to understand and catch up with the changes.
Overview of the
U.S. Equity Markets Today
by Jamil Nazarali
s e n i o r m a n ag i n g d i r ec to r ,
h e a d o f t h e e l ec t r o n i c t r a d i n g g r o u p
f o r k n i g h t c a p i ta l g r o u p
For better or for worse, the U.S. equities markets and the U.S. economy
are inextricably linked. While the ups and downs of the market may seem
random, the stock market is actually quite a good forecaster of economic
activity six to nine months in advance. Investors focus on future earn-
ings, determining whether they are confident they can make a return on
the money they invest today.
This predictive capability, driven by the collective wisdom of millions
of market participants, is why the S&P 500 is included in the Conference
Board’s Leading Economic Index and why the Federal Reserve considers
the performance of this index when setting the United States’ monetary
policy. Policy makers are joined by analysts, the media, and the public
in their daily watch of closing prices. All of the nightly news broadcasts
include a segment on the equities markets for a reason: because it
provides insight into where the country is headed.
This collective wisdom can become a virtuous feedback loop or a
negative spiral. If everyone expects the economy to do well and starts to
11
12 overview of the u.s. equity markets today
1 Investment Company Institute, 2009 Investment Company Institute Fact Book: A Review of
Trends and Activity in the Investment Company Industry, 49th ed. (2009), http://www.ici.
org/pdf/2009_factbook.pdf.
2 Federal Reserve Board, “Survey of Consumer Finances: 2007,” http://www.federalreserve.
gov/pubs/oss/oss2/scfindex.html (accessed August 2010).
3 Investment Company Institute, “The U.S. Retirement Market, First Quarter 2010,” Research
Fundamentals, http://www.ici.org/pdf/fm-v19n3-q1.pdf (accessed August 2010).
4 Rasmussen Consumer Index, Rasmussen Reports, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index/rasmussen_consumer_
index (accessed August 23, 2010).
current perspectives on modern equity markets 13
have piled on the fear and made investors reticent to invest surplus cash,
let alone remove it from under the mattress.
The U.S. equity markets have been unfairly caught up in the tumult.
Through it all, the stock market has continued to serve its vital role in
the U.S. economy: to allow for the efficient allocation of capital to start
new ventures and help companies grow and to allow for individuals to
pursue their dreams.
influence on business and, for the most part, expressed extreme discom-
fort with Uncle Sam’s ownership in banks and auto manufacturers.
Figure 2.1.
Typical trade execution path in U.S. equity market
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16 overview of the u.s. equity markets today
For investors big and small to wade into the U.S. equities markets,
they have to know that they can access their investments quickly, easily,
and cheaply. John may need cash in the short term if he loses his job, or
he may be close to retirement and want to change his allocations and
manage risk.
Again, individual investors—already spooked by gloomy news—have
become even further on edge because of recent events, including the
May 6, 2010, “flash crash.” They’re questioning whether the U.S. equi-
ties markets are working as they should. They’ve pulled back from direct
investment in the markets as well as from mutual funds and other invest-
ments through institutions.
The vitality of the markets should not be in doubt. In the U.S. stock
market, the liquidity is readily available for John to get in and out as
he desires, as smoothly as possible, as his situation—his life—changes.
Even in the depths of the recent crisis, during the fall of 2008, the U.S.
equities markets never stopped working. Investors may not have liked
the value of their investments on the computer screen, but if they were
willing to sell at that price, they could always have found a buyer.
5 “Equity Trading in the 21st Century,” Knight Capital Group, February 23, 2010, http://
www.knight.com/newsroom/researchAndCommentary.asp.
current perspectives on modern equity markets 17
When John is ready to sell out of one of his more volatile tech hold-
ings for a utility or another typically safer stock as he nears retirement,
another individual buyer at the same price, size, and moment in time
isn’t necessarily ready to take the other side. Rather, when John presses
the button to buy stock through his online broker, that broker will most
likely route the order to a third party. In days past, that third party was
an exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. However, regulatory changes,
technology, and competitive dynamics fueled competition and the rise of
alternative sources of liquidity, including the market maker, where most
brokers now route their orders for execution.
One of the reasons the U.S. equities markets are so efficient is that
when a market maker receives a customer order, it can “cross” it with
other customer orders. For example, if the market maker receives a
market order from a customer at Merrill Lynch to buy 100 shares of IBM
and there’s another order to sell the same stock at the same price from
Scottrade within the market maker’s books, the orders will cross and the
trade will be executed at subsecond speed. If the market maker doesn’t
have an opposing customer order for that buyer of 100 shares of IBM, it
can fill the order by selling IBM shares from its own account, otherwise
known as internalization. In this case, the investor gets the price at the
NBBO—the best publicly available price at the time of the trade—or even
better. So in addition to speed, market makers can provide investors with
the opportunity of price improvement.
Sometimes, the market maker decides—based on market condi-
tions, its current inventory, and/or its view of the market—to route a
customer order to another venue for execution. Traditionally, the NYSE
and NASDAQ were the primary recipients of U.S. equity orders for most
U.S. equities. However, in 2005, Regulation NMS changed the competi-
tive landscape. Now, the best quote is protected no matter where it was
posted. Newer exchanges, such as Direct Edge, ECN, and BATS, can
compete with the old guard by posting a better bid and ask.
As the market has evolved during the last few years, more choices than
ever have become available in which retail trades can be executed outside
the primary listing exchange, including dark pools, electronic communi-
18 overview of the u.s. equity markets today
no. Either way, there’s a collective genius, which makes it difficult for
active managers to outperform indices. And ultimately, this means that
the prices we all see on the screen—whether through a professional
Bloomberg terminal or an online account accessed from a laptop in the
living room—are fair. (All of this makes a case for investing in ETFs and
index funds, but that’s another topic entirely.)
The U.S. equity markets are the envy of the world and the basis for
Americans’ wealth creation and innovation over the last 100 years. The
liquidity is unparalleled, and the fairness, efficiency, and cost unmatched.
Recent events must be put in context. Certainly, changes to the market-
place over the last 10 years—primarily technology driven—need to be
reviewed and addressed, but carefully. Not in a vacuum, not as a knee-jerk
reaction, but as a thoughtful, data-driven effort to protect this treasure.
chapter
*
Imagine an Investor
Washington’s Historical Role
in Shaping the Industry through
Regulation and Legislation
by Ar thur Levitt
f o r m e r c h a i r m a n o f t h e s ec u r i t i es a n d
e xc h a n g e co m m i s s i o n ( 1 9 9 3 – 2 0 0 1 )
21
22 imagine an investor
effectively avoid it. Regardless, the NYSE abandoned the rule only when
the threat of SEC rule-making became clear and the symbolism of its
demise was important. In any event, the decade that has passed since
then has seen intense competition among markets.
In particular, the NYSE and NASDAQ have become global, publicly
held technology companies, fueled by their acquisitions of former elec-
tronic upstart competitors. More recently, these exchanges have been
joined by electronic exchanges such as BATS and Direct Edge. Trading
volume has dispersed among these venues, with no individual venue
accounting for more than 20 percent. Significantly, more than 30 nondis-
played venues or “dark pools” now operate, executing approximately 8
percent of marketwide volume in the NMS (according to SEC statistics).
Investors today have a wide-ranging choice of execution venues and
enjoy faster, cheaper, more reliable executions than ever before. In addi-
tion to expanding choice and reducing costs for investors, this competi-
tion has woven a level of resiliency into the U.S. market structure that
simply was not there a decade ago. It seems clear to me that promoting
competing markets has helped deliver greater dispersion and redun-
dancy to the market infrastructure, and in doing so, it has significantly
enhanced U.S. financial markets’ security.
Even so, recent SEC pronouncements make it clear that the commis-
sion is now sharply focused on the potential effects of the dispersion
of liquidity across multiple trading venues on the ability of orders to
interact with one another. The troublesome tension between a system
of multiple competing, ever-innovating markets and an acceptable level
of interaction between buyers and sellers across markets shows no sign
of relenting.
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