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3GFFIRS.indd ii 12/20/12 8:35 AM
 CLIMATE CHANGE
What the Science Tells Us

3GFFIRS.indd i 12/20/12 8:35 AM

3GFFIRS.indd ii 12/20/12 8:35 AM
 CLIMATE CHANGE
What the Science Tells Us

Charles Fletcher
University of Hawai’i

3GFFIRS.indd iii 12/20/12 8:35 AM

 The climax of every tragedy lies in the deafness of its heroes.
—Albert Camus, The Rebel

VP & Executive Publisher: Jay O’Callaghan

Executive Editor: Ryan Flahive
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Cover Photograph: Jim Kruger/E+/Getty Images, Inc.

Cover: Sunrise over the Pacific Ocean. This photo reveals several major elements of the climate system: the rising Sun, exerting
the ultimate control on Earth’s climate; clouds, somewhat enigmatic agents of both cooling and warming; the vast heat reservoir of
the oceans, responsible for storing more than 90% of the excess heat now in the climate system; the troposphere, the lowest layer
of air that has warmed 0.8°C (1.4°F) over the past 130 years; and early morning footprints, reminders of human impact on the
planet.

This book was set by MPS Ltd, Macmillan Company. Cover and text printed and bound by RR Donnelley.

This book is printed on acid free paper.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Fletcher, Charles.
Climate change : what the science tells us / Charles Fletcher. — 1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-118-05753-7 (pbk.)
1. Climatic changes. 2. Global warming. I. Title.
QC903.F64 2013
551.6—dc23
2012028592

Printed in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

3GFFIRS.indd iv 12/20/12 8:35 AM

 To Ruth and our children and grandchildren.

3GFFIRS.indd v 12/20/12 8:35 AM

3GFFIRS.indd vi 12/20/12 8:35 AM
 BRIEF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND HOW

IS IT BEING ALTERED BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES? 2

Chapter 2 WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE? 44

Chapter 3 HOW DO WE KNOW THAT HUMANS ARE

THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING? 72

Chapter 4 HOW DO SCIENTISTS PROJECT FUTURE

CLIMATE? 104

Chapter 5 WHAT IS THE REALITY OF SEA-LEVEL RISE? 140

Chapter 6 HOW DOES GLOBAL WARMING AFFECT

OUR COMMUNITY? 176

Chapter 7 WHAT IS THE LATEST WORD ON

CLIMATE CHANGE? 218

3GFTOC.indd vii 12/20/12 11:39 AM

3GFTOC.indd viii 12/20/12 11:39 AM
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE xi Chapter 3 HOW DO WE KNOW THAT HUMANS

ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF
Chapter 1 WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE GLOBAL WARMING? 72
EFFECT AND HOW IS IT Chapter summary 74
BEING ALTERED BY HUMAN Public discussion 75
ACTIVITIES? 2 Paleoclimate 76
Chapter summary 4 The important role of climate
Climate literacy 5 feedbacks 85
Weather and climate 6 Is global warming caused by the Sun? 91
Layers of the atmosphere 7 Did global warming end after 1998? 93
Global circulation of the atmosphere 8 Do scientists disagree on global
Ocean currents carry heat 11 warming? 95
Global warming is changing the ocean 13 Are climate data faulty? 96
The global energy balance 19 Is today’s warming simply a repeat
of the recent past? 97
Radiative forcing 34
Animations and videos 102
Mitigating global warming requires
managing carbon 38 Comprehension questions 102
Animations and videos 42 Thinking critically 102
Comprehension questions 42 Class activities (face to face or online) 103
Thinking critically 42
Class activities (face to face or online) 43 Chapter 4 HOW DO SCIENTISTS PROJECT
FUTURE CLIMATE? 104
Chapter 2 WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE Chapter summary 106
FOR CLIMATE CHANGE? 44 Climate models 108
Chapter summary 46 What is ENSO? 112
What do the experts say? 47 Additional complexities in global climate 115
The Earth system is changing 51 General circulation models of climate 127
Box 2.1 Climate changes Concluding thoughts 137
resulting from global warming 54
Animations and videos 138
Reliable sources of climate
Comprehension questions 138
change information 56
Thinking critically 138
How unusual is the present warming? 59
Class activities (face to face or online) 139
The air is heating . . . 60
. . . And humans are the cause 64
Could it be any clearer? 67 Chapter 5 WHAT IS THE REALITY OF
Animations and videos 70 SEA-LEVEL RISE? 140
Comprehension questions 70 Chapter summary 142
Thinking critically 70 Rate of sea-level rise 144
Class activities (face to face or online) 71 Sea-level components 152

3GFTOC.indd ix 12/20/12 11:39 AM

 x TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Sea level by the end of the century 162 Chapter 7 WHAT IS THE LATEST WORD ON
The Eemian analogue 172 CLIMATE CHANGE? 218
Conclusion 173 Chapter summary 220
Animations and videos 174 Climate change confirmed . . . again 222
Comprehension questions 174 No end of emissions 225
Thinking critically 174 A new normal 228
Class activities (face to face or online) 175 Extreme weather 233
Drought 238
Dangerous climate 241
Chapter 6 HOW DOES GLOBAL WARMING
AFFECT OUR COMMUNITY? 176 Ecosystem impacts 244
Climate sensitivity 250
Chapter summary 178
In closing 251
It’s getting hot out there 180
Animations and videos 254
Temperature trends 181
Comprehension questions 254
Precipitation trends 183
Thinking critically 254
Climate impacts to planning sectors 184
Class activities (face to face or online) 255
Box 6.1 Regional changes
in precipitation and runoff 186
Climate impacts to geographic regions 202 INDEX 257
Conclusion 215
Animations and videos 215
Comprehension questions 215
Thinking critically 216
Class activities (face to face or online) 217

3GFTOC.indd x 12/20/12 11:39 AM

 PREFACE

WHAT WE KNOW
Earth’s climate has always changed. Modern climate change does not, however, fit
geologic history: In the past half century, the rate and extent of climate change has
been extraordinary. Despite extensive searching, no known natural processes can
account for the present climate trend of extremely rapid warming of the temperature
of the lower atmosphere. Furthermore, industrial exhaust, deforestation, and large-
scale agribusiness are known producers of heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. It is
only logical to conclude that there is a strong likelihood that these human activities
are causing the extraordinary warming. Modern climate change is a consequence
of human-caused global warming; in fact, among scientists, this has been known for
decades.1
Every professional scientific organization in the United States and globally has
arrived at this same conclusion. For instance, the Union of Concerned Scientists,2
representing more than 250,000 U.S. citizens and scientists, states:

The Earth is warming and human activity is the primary cause.

Climate disruptions put our food and water supply at risk,
endanger our health, jeopardize our national security, and threaten
other basic human needs. Some impacts—such as record high
temperatures, melting glaciers, and severe flooding and droughts—
are already becoming increasingly common across the country
and around the world. So far, our national leaders are failing to act
quickly to reduce heat-trapping emissions.3

However, this understanding of climate change is not popular among the Amer-
ican public, and there are many skeptics of global warming who do not form their
opinions using critical thinking. In response, I have written Climate Change: What the
Science Tells Us, a concise, comprehendible presentation of the most recent research
that focuses on the causes and effects of climate change. The book is produced in the
hope that it will help learners understand why and how scientists have come to this
conclusion.

WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW

Sometimes we stop listening. Social scientists have revealed that when a person is
confronted with a seemingly unstoppable tide of bad news, they might simply stop
listening. Thus, there is a possibility that when reading the overwhelming informa-
tion about climate change presented here, one might just turn away. Don’t. This is a
chance to build your expertise, to learn, and thereby to change your world.
The classroom is a fertile environment in which to pursue this goal. I expect this
text to be put to effective use in the classroom, especially where it might accompany

1
See the film clip at the end of this foreword, “Global Warming: What We Knew in 82.”
2
See the Union of Concerned Scientists website, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/ (accessed July 15, 2012).
3
Quote from the Union of Concerned Scientists Web page on global warming, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_
warming/ (accessed July 15, 2012).

3GFLAST.indd xi 12/20/12 9:08 AM

 xii P R E FA C E

the delivery of more-traditional content such as biological or physical science, human-

ities, law, architecture, and a plethora of other disciplines that all touch on the rele-
vance of climate change and human society. I also hope this book finds a home among
the public, startled at the heat waves and storms sweeping the Northern Hemisphere,
and wanting to learn more about how their planet is changing.
Like most scientists, I found attributing modern climate changes to human activ-
ities was not a stretch; all forms of life change their environment, and humans are no
exception. In fact, the human population is now of such size (numbering 7 billion as
of October 27, 2011, Halloween Eve) and technological sophistication that change
is evident in many global systems. For instance, humans affect the extent and health
of the global forest, global fish stocks, global water quality and availability, global
sedimentation, global river discharge (an estimated 36,000 dams interrupt the flow
of nearly all of Earth’s river systems), and others. Accepting that climate is affected
by human activities actually makes sense because it accounts most elegantly for the
global phenomena scientists have observed over the past half century (and, it has
been suggested, much longer).
Because the cause of modern climate change is largely industrial, when we talk
about the kinds of measures we could take to protect ourselves and our children
from its worst effects, the discussion inevitably turns to jobs, taxes, government poli-
cies, and human livelihoods. Unfortunately, when the discourse veers down these
paths, the bright line around the science of climate change is blurred by political
opinion, personal world view, and individual beliefs. In fact, climate has even become
political dogma4: at present, some assume that if you vote Democratic you accept
climate theory, if you vote Republican you do not. Climate change can also have
religious connotations: “It is the height of human arrogance to think that we could
control God’s creation” is an opinion I have heard more than once.
Climate change enters the discussion of what to teach our children, what is polite
conversation, what kind of car to buy, the design of our buildings and cities, our
source of electricity, and more. There are many examples of what is now known as the
“climate debate.” The irony? That among mainstream scientists, there is no climate
debate. To paraphrase the National Research Council in their 2011 report America’s
Climate Choices,5 it is “settled fact” that the climate system is warming and much of
this warming is very likely due to human activities. Why use the phrase “very likely”?
Because volcanic eruptions, the El Niño southern oscillation, and variations in the
Sun’s energy also affect global temperature. But these have been intensely studied,
and research indicates their influence on global climate has been to cool down Earth
but the global warming trend has been strong enough to overpower them.6

WHERE DOES THE SCIENCE END AND WHERE

DO THE OPINIONS BEGIN?
As a life-long science educator, I wanted to produce a book that helps my students,
the public, and elected officials understand the scientific thinking on the topic of cli-
mate change. There are many climate science books, and they mostly do a good job
of summarizing the state of knowledge. This book, however, gives you direct access
to the science. The science behind statements made in this book is referenced at the
bottom of the page, not at the back of the book (or in the case of many books, not

4
“No Green Tea: What Americans Think about Climate Change, by Political Allegiance,” The Economist, 2011,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/09/american-public-opinion-and-climate-change (accessed
July 15, 2012).
5
National Research Council, America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change
(Washington, D.C., National Academies Press, 2010), pp. 21–22, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_
id=12782 (accessed July 15, 2012).
6
G. Foster and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010,” Environmental Research Letters
6 (2011): 044022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

3GFLAST.indd xii 12/20/12 9:08 AM

 P R E FA C E xiii

at all). This simple difference, I believe, makes the text easier to read, the material
more accessible, the content more credible, and the learning process ultimately more
effective.
More than other texts, Climate Change exposes the general public, decision mak-
ers, and students to the processes of peer-reviewed scientific publishing, and connects
published science papers to current events. This shows that even the boldest state-
ments of climate scientists are backed up by the scientific system of skeptical peer
review. Skeptical peer review is the process scientists use to filter strongly developed
research from weak research. The process of peer review invokes critical thinking by
competitive, judgmental scientists to gauge the appropriateness of research results to
be published for widespread reading.
In the classroom, this text can stand alone as the backbone of a semester-long
class, or it can accompany any curriculum that touches on Earth processes where
the instructor wants students to delve deeper into climate change. Its content will
augment many classes, including geomorphology, climatology, historical and physical
geology, meteorology, earth science, oceanography and marine science, environmen-
tal science, planning, civil engineering, environmental law, American studies, political
science, sociology, and many others.
Today’s scientists know that if strong action to counteract climate change is not
successfully achieved, within one generation the world will be a place characterized
by intense heat waves, widespread disease, drought, food shortages, and deadly super
storms. The beginning signs of these disasters are already evident.
Unfortunately, because scientists have done an inadequate job of sharing this
knowledge, non-critical thinking rooted in politics, religion, and other sources has given
rise to a loud climate-denier voice (one who denies the existence of global warming). In
my opinion, this voice was created and is perpetuated by some of the media in its need
to sell controversy. When the media permit people with questionable credentials to
challenge scientific findings, or when media personalities are allowed to question pub-
lished research that has gone through the system of peer review, they are not offering
two sides of a debate, they are creating a false controversy contrived to sell headlines.

ENGAGING LEARNERS
I believe that climate education should be a purposeful effort among scientists. In
addition to contributing to published, peer-reviewed scientific literature and accepting
invitations to speak to audiences, we researchers must actively create opportunities to
pass on our knowledge. A readable, easy-to-understand discussion of global warming
and its impacts, Climate Change is an attempt to communicate that knowledge. To
make the material user-friendly, the text includes the following features:
• Each chapter title poses a question designed to parallel the kinds of ques-
tions scientists have asked and to provide the reader with a framework for the
evidence.
• Learning Objectives that open each chapter orient the learner toward
fundamental core concepts that I hope will result in lasting knowledge7.
• Chapter Summary provides a brief answer to the chapter title question,
followed by a bulleted list that summarizes the content of the chapter.
• Footnotes at the bottom of each page allow readers to easily trace statements
back to their source. These footnotes are also a handy source for further
research and list dozens of websites for additional learning.
• Illustrations are designed to show observations and model results of the
impacts of global warming and as such are a key learning feature.

7
G. Wiggins and J. McTighe, Understanding by Design (Alexandria, Va., Association for Supervision and
Curriculum Development, 2005).

3GFLAST.indd xiii 12/20/12 9:08 AM

 xiv P R E FA C E

• Links to Animations and Videos are listed at the back of each chapter. These
offer access to online resources and videos of climate discussions as well as the
work of research organizations and prominent scientists.
• Comprehension Check is a list of 10 questions at the back of each chapter that
allow students to verify their understanding of key terms and concepts.
• Thinking Critically is a list of 10 thought-provoking questions that encourage
readers to go a step beyond the chapter material, make connections to previously
presented material, and apply the content to real-world situations and their own
lives.
• Activities at the back of each chapter use videos, Web links, and other visually
stimulating resources from credible sources. These activities extend content
beyond the text and bring it to life, motivating students to gain a deeper
understanding of the topics presented.

OUTLINE
The book is organized to build the reader’s understanding of climate change with
every turn of the page. Knowing that some readers will keep the book close at hand
as a reference, I’ve designed Chapter 1 to be an introduction to the basic concepts of
the atmosphere and ocean, the greenhouse effect, the concept of radiative forcing,
and the carbon cycle. Chapter 2 is a short but powerful summary of the evidence
that global warming is changing Earth’s climate and humans are the primary cause.
Chapter 3 is a detailed review of geologic changes in climate and answers some basic
questions about the cause of global warming. Chapter 4 introduces climate mod-
eling and reviews the critical natural processes (e.g., volcanism, El Niño Southern
Oscillation, solar variability, clouds) that need to be accurately depicted in models.
Chapter 5 discusses sea-level rise, and Chapter 6 presents a review of climate
impacts in North America. The text ends with Chapter 7, which touches on recent
topics of climate research such as Arctic amplification, severe weather, drought, eco-
system impacts, and others.
Chapter 1: What is the greenhouse effect and how is it being altered by human
activities? The term greenhouse effect describes the role of certain atmo-
spheric gases (such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, and others) in
trapping heat that radiates from Earth’s surface after it has been heated by
the Sun. The term greenhouse effect compares these atmospheric gases to
the glass panels of a greenhouse, which lets sunlight in, isolates warm air,
and impedes the loss of heat. Although the greenhouse effect is a natural
and beneficial process, it has gotten a bad name because greenhouse gases,
especially carbon dioxide, are increasing as a result of human activities, such
as fossil fuel burning, deforestation, and industrialization, which are respon-
sible for global warming.
Chapter 2: What is the evidence for climate change? Climate change is a
result of global warming, a genuine phenomenon about which there is little
debate within the scientific community. Rather, scientists debate the ques-
tions “How sensitive is climate to greenhouse gas buildup?” and “What
will climate change look like regionally and locally?” There is abundant,
convincing, and reproducible scientific evidence that the increase in Earth’s
surface temperature is having measurable impacts on human communities
and natural environments: Glaciers are melting, spring is coming earlier,
the tropics are expanding, sea level is rising, the global water cycle is ampli-
fied, ecosystems are shifting, global wind speed has increased, drought and
extreme weather are more common. These and many other observations
document that the Earth system is rapidly changing in response to global
warming.

3GFLAST.indd xiv 12/20/12 9:08 AM

 P R E FA C E xv

Chapter 3: How do we know that humans are the primary cause of climate
change? Climate change has been a natural process throughout geologic
history. But modern global warming is not the product of the Sun, natural
cycles, or bad data. Every imaginable test has been applied to the hypoth-
esis that humans are causing global warming. The simplest, most objective
explanation for the many independent lines of clear, factual evidence is that
humans are the primary drivers of climate change.
Chapter 4: How do scientists project future climate? Climate models success-
fully reproduce the past 100 years of climate change, but only when green-
house gases, produced by human activities, are included. Models published
by the International Panel on Climate Change use a range of potential
future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions to predict that surface air
warming in the 21st century will likely (better than 66% probability) range
from a low of 1.1°C to a high of 6.4°C (2.0°F to 11.5°F). Climate models
provide important results for understanding future global climate, but their
ability to project regional and localized climate is still limited.
Chapter 5: What is the reality of sea-level rise? Today, rising seas threaten
coastal wetlands, estuaries, islands, beaches, reefs, and all types of coastal
environments. Human communities living on the coast are subject to flood-
ing by rainstorms that are coincident with high tides, accelerated coastal
erosion, and saltwater intrusion into streams and aquifers. Sea-level rise
threatens cities, ports, and other areas with passive flooding due to rising
waters and with damaging inundation that will increase in magnitude when
hurricanes and tsunamis strike. Because sea-level rise has enormous eco-
nomic and environmental consequences, it is important to understand how
global warming is creating this threat.
Chapter 6: How does global warming affect our community? Climate change
impacts to human communities include: stresses to water resources, threats
to human health, shifting demand on energy supply, disruptions to trans-
portation and agriculture, and increased vulnerability of society and eco-
systems to future climate change. In the United States, extreme weather
events have increased in number and magnitude and are likely to do so in
the future. Severe heat waves and record-setting temperatures are occurring
with greater frequency. Among other impacts are the spread of diseases not
historically prevalent in North America, retreat of tundra and northern and
arctic ecosystems, increased occurrence of drought and flooding, sea-level
rise, decreased snow pack and retreating glaciers, changes in the timing of
seasons, and ecological impacts, among others.
Chapter 7: What is the latest word on climate change? It is useful to review
the latest evidence from the scientific realm confirming that global warming
and climate change are still actively changing the planet we call home. This
last chapter provides a review of some of the important climate issues we
have touched on: climate change confirmed, a new record in global emis-
sions, warming the high latitudes (Arctic and Antarctic), extreme weather,
drought, dangerous climate, ecosystem impacts, and climate sensitivity.

(NOT THE) FINAL WORD

National polls8 have revealed that the number of Americans who said that they were
“extremely sure” that global warming was happening slid from 35% in November
of 2008, to only 22% in November of 2011. Simultaneously, among American global

8
D.L. Wheeler, “Inside the Clash over Climate Change,” The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 11, 2012,
citing data from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/
(accessed July 15, 2012).

3GFLAST.indd xv 12/20/12 9:08 AM

 xvi P R E FA C E

warming deniers, those who said they were extremely or very certain of their views
rose from 35% in 2010 to 53% in 2011. Also alarming is the statistic that 65% of
Americans say they have never heard of the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, a key source of climate change information for scientists
and media alike.
Climate Change embodies a hope that rather than leaving readers feeling para-
lyzed by the magnitude of the problem, increased knowledge will provide you with
the confidence to ask politicians and other decision makers for action to address the
impacts. And if this climate knowledge is applied in readers’ personal decision mak-
ing, such as voting, then the book has achieved an important purpose.

VIDEO
“Global Warming: What We Knew in 82”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmpiuuBy-4s&list=UU-KTrAqt2784gL_I4JisF1w&index=1&feature=plcp (accessed July 15, 2012)

3GFLAST.indd xvi 12/20/12 9:08 AM

3GC01.indd 1 12/20/12 12:07 AM
 WHAT IS THE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
AND HOW IS IT BEING
ALTERED BY HUMAN
ACTIVITIES?

Figure 1.0. Earth in December. Climate is the long-term average weather pattern in a particular region and is the result of interac-
tions among land, ocean, atmosphere, water in all its forms, and living organisms.1
IMAGE CREDIT: Reto Stockli, NASA Earth Observatory

1
The Visible Earth, http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/

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 3

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 CHAPTER

1
CHAPTER SUMMARY

The term greenhouse effect describes the role of certain atmospheric gases
(such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, and others) in trapping heat
that radiates from Earth’s surface after it has been heated by the Sun. The term
greenhouse effect compares these atmospheric gases to the glass panels of
a greenhouse, which lets sunlight in, isolates warm air, and impedes the loss
of heat. Although the greenhouse effect is a natural and beneficial process, it
has gotten a bad name because greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide
and methane, are increasing as a result of human activities and causing global
warming. Human activities that magnify the greenhouse effect and cause global
warming include burning petroleum (gasoline and diesel fuel) for transportation,
industrialized agriculture (a major source of methane), burning household biofuels
(wood and dung), and deforestation (to clear land for agriculture), all of which
release heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.
In this chapter you will learn that:

• Weather is the short-term state of the atmosphere at a given location. It

affects the well-being of humans, plants, and animals and the quality of our
food and water supply.
• Climate is the long-term average weather pattern in a particular region and
is the result of interactions among land, ocean, atmosphere, water in its
many forms and living organisms, together known as the climate system.
• The general circulation of the atmosphere is a system of winds that transport
heat from the equator, where solar heating is greatest, toward the cooler
poles. This pattern gives rise to Earth’s climate zones.
• The oceans influence the weather and climate. Ocean water moderates air
temperatures by absorbing heat from the Sun and transporting that heat
toward the poles as well as down toward the seafloor.
• The overall outlook for the global ocean is not healthy. Warming, acidifica-
tion, and anoxia have been identified as the “deadly trio” that threatens
mass extinctions in the marine ecosystem.
• The greenhouse effect is a natural process by which heat radiated from
Earth’s surface is trapped by gases (called greenhouse gases), such as
water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3),
methane (CH4), and others. When stable, this process maintains Earth’s
average surface temperature at a life-sustaining 14°C (57.2°F).

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 C L I M AT E L I T E R A C Y 5

Learning Objective

The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that regulates the temperature of the lowest
layer of the atmosphere, known as the troposphere. Human activities have enhanced the
greenhouse effect, leading to global warming and climate change.

• Directly or indirectly over the past 200 years, human activities involving fossil
fuel consumption and land-use changes have increased all of the green-
house gases, leading to an increase in Earth’s average surface temperature
of approximately 0.8°C (1.4°F). As greenhouse gases accumulate in the
atmosphere, the amount of heat they trap also increases.
• Once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide causes climate change that is
essentially irreversible for the next 1,000 years.
• A 1°C (1.8°F) change in atmospheric temperature caused by CO2 will stimulate
a water vapor increase causing the temperature to go up another 1°C (1.8°F).
This is an example of a climate process called positive feedback.
• Some aerosols (particles and droplets) in the atmosphere and some clouds
that scatter sunlight offset warming to some degree, although not all aero-
sols and not all clouds scatter sunlight.
• Today, and for the next decade or so, cars, trucks, and buses are the great-
est contributors to atmospheric warming.
• Burning coal, oil, and natural gas instantly releases carbon that took millions
of years to accumulate in Earth’s crust. Over 34 billion tons of carbon dioxide
are released into the atmosphere annually as a result of industrialization and
deforestation2 and has resulted in a disruption of the carbon cycle.

CLIMATE LITERACY
Established in 1989 under the Executive Office of the President, the U.S. Global
Change Research Program (USGCRP3) coordinates and integrates the climate
change activities of 13 federal departments and agencies. The program is a ready
source of peer-reviewed summaries on the subject of climate change and its impacts
in the United States and the world.
The USGCRP has produced a short guide for educators to promote climate lit-
eracy among individuals and communities: The Climate Literacy Guide.4 This guide
provides a summary of essential principles underlying how Earth’s climate system
works and how climate change is occurring. The guide lists seven principles:

2
A.P. Ballantyne et al., “Increase in Observed Net Carbon Dioxide Uptake by Land and Oceans During the
Past 50 years,” Nature, 488, no. 7409 (2012); see also the CO2 Now website that tracks carbon emissions
http://co2now.org/ (accessed July, 13, 2012).
3
See the USGCRP home page at http://www.globalchange.gov/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
4
See USGCRP, “Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science,” http://www.globalchange.gov/
resources/educators/climate-literacy (accessed July 9, 2012).

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 6 C H A P T E R 1 What Is the Greenhouse Effect and How Is It Being Altered by Human Activities?

1. The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth’s climate system.
2. Climate is regulated by complex interactions among components of the
Earth system.
3. Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and affects climate.
4. Climate varies over space and time through both natural and human-made
processes.
5. Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations,
theoretical studies, and modeling.
6. Human activities are affecting the climate system.
7. Climate change will have consequences for the Earth system and human lives.
This and following chapters expand on these principles.

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

Weather5 is the short-term state of the atmosphere at a given location. It affects
the well-being of humans, plants, and animals and the quality of our food and
water supply. Weather is somewhat predictable because of our understanding of
Earth’s global climate patterns. For instance, in certain seasons we can expect pre-
cipitation events of either rain or snow, and these can be predicted a few days in
advance by a combination of computer modeling and the modern technology of
satellites and radar.6
Climate is the long-term average weather pattern in a particular region and is
the result of interactions among land, ocean, atmosphere, water in all of its forms, and
living organisms. Climate7 is described by many weather elements, such as tempera-
ture, precipitation, humidity, sunshine, and wind. Both climate and weather result
from processes that accumulate and move heat within and between the atmosphere
and the oceans.

Heat
The key to understanding climate change is to follow the heat, because changes
in the accumulation and movement of heat in the oceans and atmosphere result
in changes to climate. To understand both natural and human influences on global
climate, we must explore the physical processes that govern heat movement in the
atmosphere and oceans.
Heat in Earth’s climate system originates with sunlight that warms the land,
oceans, and atmosphere. When Earth emits to space the same amount of energy
as it absorbs, its energy budget is in balance, and its average temperature remains
stable. Changes in the amount of heat coming from the Sun cause Earth to warm
or cool. Satellite measurements taken over the past 30 years show that the Sun’s
output has changed only slightly and in both directions. Thus changes in the Sun’s
energy are thought to be too small to be the cause of the recent warming observed
on Earth.8

5
Wikipedia has a great “Weather” entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather (accessed July 9, 2012).
6
Radar (the use of pulses of radio waves to measure remote objects) is used in weather forecasting to identify
various types of precipitation (rain, snow, hail, etc.). Weather radars can detect the motion of rain droplets
in addition to the intensity of precipitation. This is used to characterize storms and their potential to cause
severe weather.
7
See “Climate,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate (accessed July 9, 2012).
8
M. Lockwood, “Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of
contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise,” Proceedings of the Royal Society A 464 (2008):
1387–1404, doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.0348.

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 L AY E R S O F T H E AT M O S P H E R E 7

Energy Budget
Dr. James E. Hanson and co-researchers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space
Studies examined Earth’s energy (heat) budget from 2005 to 2010.9 Over this period
the Sun entered a prolonged solar minimum that reduced the amount of energy
reaching Earth’s surface, yet the planet continued to absorb more energy than it
returned to space. This energy imbalance underscores the fact that greenhouse
gases generated by human fossil fuel burning—not changes in solar activity—are
the primary force driving global warming. Hansen’s team concluded that Earth has
absorbed more than half a watt (W) more solar energy per square meter of Earth’s
surface than it let off throughout the study period. The calculated value of the imbal-
ance (0.58 W of excess energy per square meter) is more than twice as much as the
reduction in the amount of solar energy supplied to the planet between maximum
and minimum solar activity (0.25 W per square meter). As a result of this energy
imbalance, the researchers concluded that global warming has continued over the
period and that as the Sun returns to normal levels of activity, sea-level rise and
other environmental changes resulting from global warming will accelerate in the
next decade.

LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE

The atmosphere10 is the envelope of gases that surround Earth, extending from its
surface to an altitude of about 145 km (90 mi; Figure 1.1). Around the world, the
composition of the atmosphere is similar, but when looked at in cross section, the
atmosphere is not a uniform blanket of air. It can best be described as having four
layers, each with distinct properties, such as temperature and chemical composi-
tion. The red line in Figure 1.1 shows how atmospheric temperature changes with
altitude.
Thermosphere. The highest layer of the atmosphere, the thermosphere (also
called the ionosphere), gradually merges with space. Temperatures increase
with altitude in the thermosphere because it is heated by cosmic radiation
from space.
Mesosphere. Below the thermosphere is the mesosphere, which extends to an
altitude of about 80 km (50 miles). This layer grows cooler with increasing
altitude.
Stratosphere. Below the mesosphere is the stratosphere, where the protective
“ozone layer” absorbs much of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. This
layer extends to an altitude of about 50 km (31 mi), it becomes hotter with
increasing altitude, and it is vital to the survival of plants and animals on
Earth because it blocks the intense solar radiation that damages living
tissue.
Troposphere. In the layer nearest Earth, the troposphere (or weather zone),
the air becomes colder with increasing altitude; you might have noticed this
if you have ever hiked in the mountains. This layer extends to an altitude
of about 8 km (5 mi) in the Polar Regions and up to nearly 17 km (10.5 mi)
above the equator. It is also the layer where greenhouse gases are trapped
and global warming occurs.
The boundaries between these layers are called pauses. For example, the tropo-
pause is the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.

9
J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, “Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications,”
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 (2011), 13421–13449, doi: 10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.
10
See Earth’s Atmosphere, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_atmosphere (accessed
July 9, 2012).

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 8 C H A P T E R 1 What Is the Greenhouse Effect and How Is It Being Altered by Human Activities?

Figure 1.1. Around the world, the composition of the atmosphere is similar, but when looked
at in cross section, the atmosphere is not a uniform blanket of air. It has several layers, each
with distinct properties, such as temperature and chemical composition. The red line shows
how atmospheric temperature changes with altitude.
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology: The Science of Earth, 2012.

90
140

130 Aurora 80
120
Thermosphere
110 70

100
60
90

Height (miles)
Height (km)

80 Mesopause 50

70
Tem
perat 40
Meteor ure Mesosphere
60

50 30
Stratopause

40
20
30 Stratosphere
Maximum ozone
20
10
Tropopause
10
Mt. Everest Troposphere

–100 –90 –80 –70 –60 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50°C

–140 –120 –100 –80 –60 –40 –20 0 10 40 60 80 100 120°F

32

There is little vertical mixing of gases between layers of the atmosphere, and one
layer can be warming while at the same time another is cooling. For example, global
warming in the troposphere, the layer closest to Earth’s surface, causes cooling in
the stratosphere11 because as more heat is trapped in the lower atmosphere, less heat
reaches the upper atmosphere.12 To an observer in space, Earth would appear to be
cooling, but that is only true of the upper atmosphere.

GLOBAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE

An essential component of climate, the atmosphere is the most rapidly changing
and dynamic of Earth’s physical systems, and it constantly interacts with Earth’s
other systems: the hydrosphere (water in all its forms), biosphere (living organ-
isms), and lithosphere (rock, soil, and Earth’s geology). In the troposphere, global
winds circulate the air and interact with the ocean surface, mixing water vapor and

11
Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, S. G. Warren, and D. J. Seidel, “Contribution of Stratospheric Cooling to Satellite-
Inferred Tropospheric Temperature Trends,” Nature 429 (2004): 55–58.
12
J. Laštovička, R. Akmaev, G. Beig, J. Bremer, and J. Emmert, “Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere,”
Science 314, no. 5803 (2006): 1253–1254, doi: 10.1126/science.1135134; see also B. D. Santer, T. M. L.
Wigley, and K. E. Taylor, “The Reproducibility of Observational Estimates of Surface and Atmospheric
Temperature Change,” Science 334, no. 6060 (2011): 1232–1233.

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 G L O B A L C I R C U L AT I O N O F T H E AT M O S P H E R E 9

Figure 1.2. The general circulation of the atmosphere is driven by heat from the Sun and
rotation of the planet.
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology: The Science of Earth, 2012.

North Pole
Rotation of Earth
Polar cell Descending dry cold air

Ferrel Rising cool moist air

cell
60°
Descending
Hadley cool dry air
cell

30° Rising
warm
NE h moist
Trade ug air
tro
tor ial
winds Equa

SE Equator
Hadley Trade Descending
cell winds cool dry air
30°
Ferrel
cell
South Pole

heat.13 Close to Earth’s surface, atmospheric circulation is so vigorous that air can
travel around the world in less than a month.
Global circulation (Figure 1.2) is essentially driven by heat from the Sun and
by the rotation of Earth. The worldwide system of winds that transport warm air
from the equator, where solar heating is greatest, toward the cooler high latitudes
is called the general circulation of the atmosphere. This pattern gives rise to Earth’s
climate zones.
Global atmospheric circulation is a primary factor determining variations in
temperature, precipitation, surface winds, storminess and, hence, the weather and
climate. The basic components of global atmospheric circulation are the Hadley cell,
the Ferrel cell, and the Polar cell (see Figure 1.2). There is one of each cell type in the
Northern Hemisphere and one of each in the Southern Hemisphere.
Atmospheric circulation starts with the basic principle that hot air rises and cool
air sinks. Therefore, air heated by the Sun rises at the equator, where solar heating is
greatest. As the air moves toward the poles, it cools and eventually sinks. Rising air
causes low air pressure (at the equator), and sinking air causes high air pressure (at
the poles). If Earth were perfectly still and smooth, we might have a single cell in each
hemisphere where hot air rises at the equator, moves north or south toward the poles,
and then sinks to ground level as it cools at the poles. This air would then flow back
to the equator along the ground surface. We would see this pattern expressed in the
Northern Hemisphere as a constant north wind and in the Southern Hemisphere as
a constant south wind. Fortunately, however, Earth is neither still nor smooth. Earth
spins on its axis, causing the changes of day and night, and large mountain ranges
deflect the direction of surface winds. Life on Earth is much more interesting this way.

The Hadley Cell

By the time an air mass that has risen at the equator has traveled to about 30° lati-
tude, it has cooled sufficiently to sink back to Earth’s surface (forming an area of

13
See the animation “Global Circulation of the Atmosphere” at the end of the chapter.

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 10 C H A P T E R 1 What Is the Greenhouse Effect and How Is It Being Altered by Human Activities?

high pressure). When this air reaches the surface, it must flow away, and it moves
back either toward the equator or toward the pole. The air that flows back to
the equator is reheated and rises again to repeat the process. This completes the
Hadley cell.

The Polar Cell and the Ferrel Cell

At the poles, cold, dense air descends, causing a high-pressure area. Air flows away
from the high pressure and toward the equator. By the time this air nears 60° lati-
tude, it begins to meet the air flowing poleward from the Hadley cell. When these
two air masses meet, they have nowhere to go but up. As they rise, they cool and lose
moisture, causing high precipitation. Once high in the atmosphere, they must head
poleward, where they cool and sink again, or toward the equator, where they meet
the flow heading poleward from the equator and sink. The circulatory cell sinking at
the poles and rising at 60° latitude is the Polar cell, and the cell sinking at 30° latitude
and rising at 60° latitude is the Ferrel cell.

The Coriolis Effect

In 1856, William Ferrel demonstrated that owing to the rotation of Earth, air and water
currents moving distances of tens to hundreds of kilometers tend to be deflected to
the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.
This phenomenon is known as the Coriolis effect, named after the French scien-
tist Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis (1792–1843), who described the transfer of energy in
rotating systems. Because surface winds in a Hadley cell are moving south (in the
Northern Hemisphere) when they are deflected to the right, they turn westward and
are called the northeast trade winds. In the Southern Hemisphere, they turn left to
become the southeast trade winds. The surface winds in the Northern Hemisphere’s
Ferrel cell are moving north, and when deflected right they become the mid-latitude
westerlies. The surface winds in the northern Polar cell are heading south, and when
deflected right they become the polar easterlies. Check a globe to convince your-
self of these patterns and figure out what part of the global atmospheric circulation
system you live in.

How Global Circulation Affects Climate

As air rises, it cools and expands. This is due to the increased distance from the
warming effects of Earth’s surface and the lower air pressure found at higher alti-
tude. As a rising air mass cools and expands, so does the water vapor contained in
it. As the water vapor cools and expands, more water condenses than evaporates,
causing water droplets and then clouds to form. Continued condensation produces
precipitation, which falls as rain or snow. Therefore, in areas where relatively warm
moist air is rising, such as near the equator and around 60° latitude, there is ample
precipitation in all seasons.
The opposite is also true: Air warms and contracts as it sinks closer to Earth’s
surface. This causes evaporation to exceed condensation. No clouds form in loca-
tions with lots of sinking air. These areas, such as at the poles and around 30° latitude,
have few clouds and little precipitation, thus forming a great belt of arid climate (and
deserts) that girdles the globe. Many of the world’s deserts are clustered around
30°N and 30°S latitudes for this reason (Figure 1.3).
Atmospheric processes distribute heat, water vapor, and winds across the face of
the planet, which in turn determines the level of precipitation, the character of the
seasons, how cold or warm it is at various times of the year—in short, the climate.
Oceans, because they carry heat from the tropics toward the poles, also play a signifi-
cant role in regulating the climate.

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 O C E A N C U R R E N T S C A R R Y H E AT 11

Figure 1.3. Global climate is governed by the atmospheric circulation; the rising and falling
air of circulation cells govern the movement of surface winds, water vapor, and aspects of
the temperature.
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology: The Science of Earth, 2012.

North Pole
Descending dry cold air
Polar cell
Rising cool moist air
90°
Ferrel Polar high Sparce precipitation
cell in all seasons

60°
Descending
cool dry air Subpolar low Ample precipitation in all seasons

Hadley
cell
Winter wet, Summer dry
30°
Rising Subtropical high Dry in all seasons
warm
moist Summer wet, Winter dry
air

Equatorial Abundant precipitation

Hadley low 0° in all seasons
cell

Summer wet, Winter dry

Descending
cool dry air Subtropical high Dry in all seasons
30°
Ferrel Winter wet, Summer dry
cell Subpolar low Ample precipitation in all seasons
Polar high Sparce precipitation in all seasons
Rising cool moist air
South Pole

OCEAN CURRENTS CARRY HEAT

Climate change is the product of changes in the accumulation and movement of heat
in the atmosphere and oceans. The oceans14 influence many other natural systems on
the planet, and they especially affect the weather and climate. Ocean water moder-
ates surface temperatures by absorbing heat from the Sun and transporting that
heat toward the poles as well as down toward the seafloor. Restless ocean currents15
distribute this heat around the globe, warming the land and air during winter and
cooling it in summer. The fact that cold water is denser and so is heavier than warm
water also plays into the way ocean water circulates.

Ocean Circulation
There are basically two types of large-scale oceanic circulation: surface circulation,
which is stimulated by winds and the Coriolis effect, and deep circulation, which is
the result of cool water at the poles sinking and moving through the lower ocean.
Both are driven by the exchange of heat.

14
There are five oceans. They are the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic, and Southern oceans. Smaller bodies,
known as “seas,” include the Mediterranean and China seas.
15
Explore the science of oceanography at NASA, NASA Science Earth: NASA Oceanography, http://
nasascience.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ (accessed July 9, 2012).

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 12 C H A P T E R 1 What Is the Greenhouse Effect and How Is It Being Altered by Human Activities?

Figure 1.4. There are five major basin-wide gyres, each controlled by the interaction of winds and the Coriolis effect. Currents
within the gyres carry heat from the equator toward the poles and thus strongly influence climate.
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology: The Science of Earth, 2012.

North Atlantic
North Pacific Gyre Gyre

Indian Ocean
South Pacific Gyre South Atlantic Gyre
Gyre

The general pattern of circulation consists of surface currents carrying warm

water away from the tropics toward the poles and, in the process, releasing heat to
the atmosphere. Winter at the poles further cools this surface water. Once the sur-
face water is cooler, it sinks to the deep ocean, creating currents along the seafloor
and at mid depths in the ocean. This process is especially pronounced in the North
Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean in the coastal waters of Antarctica, where cool-
ing is the strongest. Deep ocean water gradually returns to the surface nearly every-
where in the ocean. Once at the surface, it is carried back to the tropics by surface
currents, where it is warmed again and the cycle begins anew. The more efficient the
cycle, the more heat is transferred from the tropics to the poles, and the more this
heat warms the climate.16

SURFACE CURRENTS Owing to Earth’s rotation (Coriolis effect), ocean currents

are deflected to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern
Hemisphere. In surface circulation, this process creates large-scale circulation sys-
tems called gyres that sweep the major ocean basins.
There are five major basin-wide gyres (Figure 1.4): the North Atlantic, South
Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean gyres. Each gyre is com-
posed of a strong and narrow western boundary current and a weak and broad east-
ern boundary current. Each of the five major gyres in the oceans has parallel systems
of currents, and these currents each carry heat and govern climate where they flow.
The surface circulation of the North Pacific Gyre is a typical example of how winds
and the Coriolis effect combine to create surface circulation.
In the North Pacific atmosphere, a descending column of dry air that originated
at the equator (the northern end of the Hadley cell) blows toward the equator but
is deflected to the west (right) by the Coriolis effect. This southwest-flowing wind is

16
See the animation “Ocean Currents” at the end of the chapter.

3GC01.indd 12 12/20/12 12:07 AM

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