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Praise for The Trend Management Toolkit

“This book is truly inspirational. An excellent toolkit for anybody who

needs to think about what the future will hold and prepare their busi-
ness for it before it happens. It will help all its readers both to see and
understand ‘the big picture’ and how we will evolve as people, consumers,
and societies in a not so distant future.”

John Carstensen, Head of Profession for Climate and Environment,

UK Department for International Development

“I’ve read this book with the utmost interest and found it not only a
professionally useful but a personally captivating read as well. It offers
plenty of food for thought and – what is more important – a methodol-
ogy and a set of tools that really help to organize and orient the reflection
process, be it individual or collective. The Trend Management Toolkit offers
a rare combination of sharp insights, sound methodology, and effective
tools. It will be of great help to companies when it comes to navigating
the complexity of the future.”

Fernando Gutiérrez, Director and Advisor to the Chairman and CEO, BBVA

“To make our world a better and greener place, we need to work together
for the common good. This book presents the business case for a balanced
people, planet, purpose, and profit outlook – a sustainable business model
that is close to my own heart. It is essential reading for anyone wishing to
map out and create positive future scenarios.”

Søren Hermansen, CEO, Samsø Energy Academy;

TIME magazine Hero of the Environment 2008

“As we are living in a world where the amount of data is increasing

dramatically, technology is developing at a speed never seen before, and
the stress we are putting on environment and resources is coming to a
tipping point – it is hard not to get confused. But with The Trend Manage-
ment Toolkit we get sound help to navigate in this complex world.”

Anders Eldrup, Former CEO, DONG Energy; Permanent Secretary,

Danish Ministry of Finance
“Anne Lise Kjaer provides a valuable toolkit for conscious capitalists look-
ing to shape the 21st century. Unapologetically Nordic in her approach,
she shows how a strong focus on inclusion, empowerment, and social
consciousness can spur innovation and give businesses a competitive edge.
This book is a must-read for current and future business leaders.”

Henrik Fogh Rasmussen, Founder, Rasmussen Public Affairs

“This inspiring and generous book cleverly explains how society has
developed over the last 20 years and pulls all the complexity into an acces-
sible tool that ensures strategic thinking. Dig in and choose what future
you want to create – the business case is already argued thoroughly and
the warmth and wit make it a captivating read. As both a toolbox and a
summary of 20 years plus of professional learning, I can see it becoming a
key source for university courses, not just within business but also design
and sociology. It will also be the Christmas present for my entire network.”

Esther Davidsen, Brussels lobbyist; head of Zealand Denmark EU Office

“Trends on their own tell a small part of the story. Using techniques from
The Trend Management Toolkit, business leaders can apply a systemic
approach to understanding how to visualize the future.”

R “Ray” Wang, Founder, Constellation Research Inc.;

author of Disrupting Digital Business

“Our success relies on adapting to the future faster than our competitors. This
book’s toolkit is an invaluable resource to think deeply about that future.”

Sir Ian Cheshire, Group CEO, Kingfisher plc

“Just as Alvin Toffler’s Third Wave helped frame the coming decades for me
in 1980, Anne Lise Kjaer has put words to the uncertainties and opportuni-
ties facing our global village in coming years. The need to think in terms of
circular economies and understand the critical relevance of social inclusion
has never been greater. She equips the reader with both the mindset and
the tools to help adapt, and even thrive, in the face of radical change.”

Gary Baker, Executive Director, Climate Change &

Sustainability Services, Ernst & Young AB
“The future, and how to make sense of it – these are the themes of Anne
Lise Kjaer’s new book. A guidebook to long-term planning in a fast-
morphing world, The Trend Management Toolkit will particularly interest
businesses looking for new ways of responding to changes in consumer
behaviour. But its potted history of the art of prediction will fascinate
all – as should Kjaer’s argument that vapid consumerism has heightened,
rather than destroyed, a desire for social ties and collaboration.”

Patrick Kingsley, Guardian foreign correspondent, author of How to be

Danish; best young journalist at the 2014 British Press Awards

“Trends – every company depends on understanding them yet few do.

In Anne Lise Kjaer’s new book, The Trend Management Toolkit, she takes
a brave step into the future by introducing a new way of predicting and
managing trends. She has cracked it!”

Martin Lindstrom, New York Times best selling author of

Brandwashed and Buyology

“The opportunities presented by the ongoing digital and social revolution

make a culture and architecture of continuous innovation an even bigger
imperative for progressive organisations. The ability to paint a holistic
picture of the future is an important component of this innovation archi-
tecture. The Trend Management Toolkit provides a valuable method to
map the future and thereby contribute directly to the innovation process.”

Neetan Chopra, Senior Vice President, IT Strategy, Emirates Group

“I was captivated by the direct, personal and inspiring tone of this tool-
kit and storytelling book about the future. I read it in one day – simply
couldn’t put it down – because I wanted to know more. A new societal
learning map and master class is born, complete with history, data and
tools. This is a solid overview, with clear arguments and insights, which
explains why we need a new and multidimensional set of tools to navigate
in the 21st century.

Lars Engman, former design director, IKEA

“The future is something to be embraced not feared, but it has never been
harder to discern. Political, economic, social, environmental, and technol-
ogy trends bounce around the world, colliding and merging at a fearsome
rate; Anne Lise’s book is a great practical guide to understanding these
trends and building a strategy to respond to them.”

Mike Barry, Director Plan A, Marks & Spencer

“In an era of constant change, brands are finding that it is vital to be able to
identify and embrace new and game-changing trends. The Trend Manage-
ment Toolkit offers incisive insights and practical steps to help marketers
better understand the future needs and wants of their customers.”

Muireann Bolger, Features Editor, The Marketer

The Trend Management
Toolkit
A Practical Guide to the Future

Anne Lise Kjaer

© Anne Lise Kjaer 2014
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-37008-2

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this

publication may be made without written permission.

No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted

save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,
Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.

Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work
in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published 2014 by

PALGRAVE MACMILLAN

Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited,

registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke,
Hampshire RG21 6XS.

Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC,

175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.

Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies

and has companies and representatives throughout the world.

Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,

the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.

ISBN 978-1-349-47519-3 ISBN 978-1-137-37009-9 (eBook)

DOI 10.1057/9781137370099
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing
processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the
country of origin.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

Typeset by Aardvark Editorial Limited, Metfield, Suffolk.

 This book is dedicated to my son
Vicente Macia-Kjaer who challenges
and inspires me by bringing a true
Millennial dimension to every discourse
about the future.
This page intentionally left blank
Contents

List of figures and tables xi

Foreword xiii
Acknowledgments xiv

1 From facts to feelings 1

Introducing trend management as a concept 1
What this book can do for you 9
Taking time out to think and act 22

2 Sense making in a fast-forward society 28

Connecting the dots 29
Understanding the evolution of consumption 30
Future consumer landscape and culture shifts 39
The rise of meaningful consumption 47

3 Trend mapping: past, present and future 55

From weak signals to macro trend 55
Rethinking human decision making 56
21st-century sense making 64
From 2D to 4D thinking explained 70
The future is not set in stone 75
Signposts to the road ahead 80

4 Your essential trend toolkit 83

The bigger picture 84
Creating your Trend Atlas 87
Identifying key trends in the multiple dimensions 90
The Trend Index 99
Adopting a glocal perspective 110

ix
x Contents

5 Major trends to 2030+ 116

Major structural drivers 116
A people-centric vision 117
The ones to watch 118
Trends in the scientific dimension 2030+ 120
1. Radical Openness 120
2. The Global Brain 123
3. Green Growth 126
4. Rising Economies 129
Trends in the social dimension 2030+ 132
5. Smart Living 132
6. Global Citizens 135
7. Betapreneurship 138
8. The No-age Society 140
Trends in the emotional dimension 2030+ 144
9. Better World 144
10. Lifelong Learning 147
11. Social Capital 150
Trends in the spiritual dimension 2030+ 153
12. The “Good Life” 153

6 Practical trend mapping: focusing on people 157

The people factor 157
How to build the business case 164
Recognizing contradictions and transitions 168
Scenario 1: Mobile Millennials 173
Scenario 2: New Urbanites 177
Scenario 3: Green Sustainers 181
Scenario 4: Mindful Idealists 185
Trends across continents 189

7 Practical trend mapping: organizations 195

From confusion to trend management 197
Trend management in action across sectors 202
Summary: Shaping tomorrow today 219

Notes 221
Index 238
List of figures and tables

Figures

1.1 Key forecasting methodologies 21

2.1 Mapping the trends 30
2.2 The evolution of consumption 33
2.3 The 4P business model 43
2.4 Time to Think poll in 2006 45
2.5 Hyper consumption versus meaningful consumption 51
3.1 Most used forecasting methods 57
3.2 Left- versus right-brain thinking 61
3.3 Multidimensional thinking model 67
3.4 The 4D quadrant and multidimensional Trend Index 69
3.5 Generic Trend Atlas 2030+ 73
3.6 Future scenarios example 77
4.1 Trend Atlas template 91
4.2 Generic Trend Atlas 100
4.3 Trend mapping in action 102
4.4 Trend Index 104
4.5 Trend Engagement Barometer 106
4.6 Global Trend Relevance Index 107
4.7 Local Trend Relevance Index 109
6.1 Nordic competitiveness 161
6.2 Mindset Map and the 2030+ scenarios 171
6.3 Mobile Millennials Trend Index 173
6.4 Mobile Millennials visual snapshot 176
6.5 New Urbanites Trend Index 177
6.6 New Urbanites visual snapshot 180
6.7 Green Sustainers Trend Index 181

xi
xii List of figures and tables

6.8 Green Sustainers visual snapshot 184

6.9 Mindful Idealists Trend Index 185
6.10 Mindful Idealists visual snapshot 188
6.11 Trend and Lifestyle Navigator 192
7.1 Connecting the dots 196
7.2 Trend management iteration process 199

Tables

1.1 Some key influencers through time 4

3.1 Brain processing 66
4.1 The scientific framework 93
4.2 The social framework 95
4.3 The emotional framework 96
4.4 The spiritual framework 98
4.5 Trend SWOT analysis 103
4.6 Historical time frame 112
Foreword

We are faced with a particularly tough set of challenges in today’s infor-

mation society. With a vast and growing data deluge, keeping up with
analysis, pattern spotting, and extracting useful information has never
been more crucial; hence, we need a system that talks back to us and
enables informed decision making. Over the past 20 years, I have devel-
oped tools and approaches to help organizations discuss and determine
the best way ahead. The Trend Atlas integrates the management of data
and societal insights to provide a sense-making platform for anticipating
future challenges and opportunities.

My roots in Denmark, where democratic thinking and a strong design

culture are ingrained, have profoundly influenced how I navigate the world
and map “what comes next.” Visiting Copenhagen, the capital of one of
world’s happiest nations, always inspires me. Here, it appears to me, the
future is already happening. Urbanization in Denmark stands at 87%, yet
over 40% of the capital’s commuters travel by bicycle and the country has
robust plans to run solely on renewable energy by 2050. Strongly commit-
ted to e-government, it has 100% broadband penetration. Employment
rates are high, four out of five women work, and the affordable kindergar-
ten system, attended by 90% of Danish children, is a highly visible invest-
ment in nurturing tomorrow’s smart and inclusive society.

As you will realize, I am an unapologetic believer in the values I grew up

with. Recognizing that there is not just one but many possible futures, we
can’t ignore that our choices today profoundly influence tomorrow. When
we consider the full range of societal values, we enable groundbreaking
scenario thinking. It is in this spirit that I set out my road map for how
trend management delivers value to business and society as a whole.

xiii
Acknowledgments

This book simply wouldn’t have become a reality without all the inspiring
people who helped me develop it.

First of all, a huge thank you to Libby Norman, my editor since 2003, who
carefully edited each chapter to perfection and summarized sections into
digestible “future sound bites.” Sociologist Esther Giner Macia meticulously
scanned and condensed more than a decade of Kjaer Global’s work, and
helped research the core concepts presented in this book, while my husband,
architect Harald Brekke, lent his analytical and critical judgment, tirelessly
reading the manuscript again and again. I am indebted to Louise Loecke
Foverskov, design and trend strategist at Kjaer Global since 2006, who gave
invaluable input over the years, not least our work to evolve the toolkit
shown here. Environment strategist Ela Rose diligently assisted in research-
ing the trends and refining the case studies. All of you were instrumental
in bringing this book to fruition. Also, a special thanks to my publishers
Palgrave Macmillan and the Aardvark Editorial team for their extraordinary
work during the development, editing, and production phases.

Last, but not least, I could not have amassed the experience or knowledge
to write this book without the support from Kjaer Global’s clients, who have
given us the great privilege to share their journeys into the future. While
there are too many great brand names to list here, they know who they are.
All of our clients – through their visionary leadership – demonstrate time
and again how strategies that focus on improving lives and communities
will also deliver on the bottom line.

Anne Lise Kjaer

Futurist and Copenhagen Goodwill Ambassador

Learn more on www.kjaer-global.com

xiv
C HAPTER 1

From facts to feelings

In the past, when I mentioned “feelings” to companies the immediate

response was: “We are not interested in feelings about the future, we
want facts.”

Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who won his prize in

economics, noted in an interview for UK newspaper The Guardian in 2012:1
Many people now say they knew a financial crisis was coming, but
they didn’t really. After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it
happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In
fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.

While I agree with part of Kahneman’s statement, I also believe that very
often the writing is on the wall before seismic change occurs – we simply
need a method of tuning into the vibrations of our universe. This means
that, alongside the gathering of data and insights to give us rational
knowledge, we must develop our intuition to enable us to predict and
develop strategies for change.

Introducing trend management as a concept

To make sense of the future, even the seemingly sudden shifts, we must
have a system in place that sifts and correlates trends. The Trend Manage-
ment Toolkit is such a system, acting as a platform for integrated think-
ing that allows us to anticipate developments and make more informed
choices in the present about the future. At its simplest, the process of

1
2 The Trend Management Toolkit

managing trends involves observing specific changes or advances, as well

as considering the general direction in which society is moving. But to
do this consistently and with confidence, it is essential to have a trend
management system that deals with the complexity of diverse informa-
tion, fosters alternative viewpoints, and generates fresh thoughts. This
offers a structure that makes trend forecasting come alive, enabling us to
discover and analyze trends that tell us something about the future as well
as inspiring timely ideas and solutions.

The system I describe in this book is a powerful strategic method devel-

oped for making sense of the many multifaceted, sometimes conflicting,
drivers influencing today’s reality and tomorrow’s world. Trend mapping
and scenario building are typically part of the trend management process,
in which we build narratives around nascent trends to consider likely
outcomes for organizations by projecting the impact for business develop-
ment, product design, and service concepts. We use a wide range of data
for broad insight, incorporating experts’ opinions as well as case studies
and analysis to build a 360-degree outlook. The outcome is a framework
that can be applied to everything from new business models, innovation
and design strategies to brand building and marketing.

Decoding society and human behavior

Future forecasting is a relatively new and developing field. However, in
recent decades, it has become an increasingly widely accepted decision-
making tool for assessing societal influences, economic drivers, and –
ultimately – boosting sales to increase revenues and reputation. Over
the past 20 years, my team and I have built tools and processes to help
companies and organizations navigate the future, often refining and
developing these tools in response to the specific challenges faced by the
organizations we’ve worked with, as well as taking on board new theories
and approaches as we’ve added fresh research perspectives to our multi-
disciplinary practice. Today, this methodology allows us to combine a wide
spectrum of trend snapshots to create viable and inspirational scenarios.

One of our vital tools is the Trend Atlas, a visual sense-making platform
that integrates management of a wide variety of data and information
to provide insights for determining what lies ahead. The Trend Atlas is a
structured compilation of macro trends that acts as a compass, enabling
 From facts to feelings 3

us to decode the socioeconomic and cultural contexts of society to deci-

pher patterns that provide a framework for projection, planning, and
ideation. Trend management combines a wide spectrum of drivers and
insights to create powerful future sound bites. These are essentially the
building blocks for creating sustainable and credible future narratives
that make it possible for companies to explore potential developments,
both short to medium term. The narratives are underpinned by a variety
of research findings and insights – not just numbers – and enable us
to contextualize lifestyle situations that consider people’s future prefer-
ences, choices, and actions. In effect, we are teleported into the future
and encouraged to ask the big “what if?” questions. The narratives are
more compelling than a simple forecast and allow organizations to
visualize future situations in a believable, multilayered way. As such,
they become powerful tools for imagining the future and creating sound
strategies, as well as managing risk.

The sociology of people is an essential component in understanding the

future, but we also need to factor in the sociology of things – technology
in particular, as technological development plays a key role in the inter-
pretation of how global economies and cultures connect. This is another
key reason why multidimensional trend management is fundamental
for imagining the future. Its much broader set of research tools invite us
to detach ourselves from our current, local context, consider the whole
picture and thereby view our organization holistically to understand how
we come across to the rest of the world – a process we call “looking from
the outside in.” In order to assist our clients develop their critical thinking
about the future, we also consider the evolution of societies, businesses,
lifestyle patterns, and the environment. We find that when we observe
the past and present, it’s possible to gain deeper insights into how the
future might unfold. In a nutshell, trend management assists with the
process of mapping out current trends and influences for businesses
within a society-wide context.

The evolution of future studies

The business of trend forecasting and the need for it is nothing new;
indeed, there have always been thinkers and seers imagining the future
(see Table 1.1). However, it is only in the last half-century that it has
become a discernible business with its own distinct methodologies and
4 The Trend Management Toolkit

TABLE 1.1 Some key influencers through time

Year Name Expertise and future-focused studies
1452–1519 Leonardo da Artist, engineer, scientist and inventor, architect,
Vinci musician, mathematician, anatomist, geologist,
Italian cartographer, botanist, and writer. Surviving notebooks
reveal the most eclectic of predictive minds. Key
publications: Codex Arundel (1480), Codex Leicester
(1508), Codex Atlanticus (1519)
1828–1905 Jules Verne Novelist, poet, and playwright. Inspired many future
French scientists with his body of science fiction collected
within Voyages Extraordinaires (1863–1905). Key
publications: Journey to the Centre of the Earth (1864),
From the Earth to the Moon (1865), Twenty Thousand
Leagues Under the Sea (1870), Around the World in
Eighty Days (1873)
1856–1943 Nikola Tesla Futurist inventor, electrical mechanical engineer, and
Serbian- physicist. Devised the modern alternating current
American electricity supply system, with 300 inventions patented
worldwide and amazing 21st-century predictions
1866–1946 H.G. Wells Futurist and science fiction author, with wide-ranging
English interests in science and social policy. Considered among
the founders of future studies. Key publications: The
Time Machine (1895), The War of the Worlds (1898),
Anticipations (1901), A Modern Utopia (1905), The
Shape of Things to Come (1933), World Brain (1936–38)
1895–1983 Buckminster Futurist, architect, systems theorist, author, designer,
Fuller and inventor. Key publications: 4D Timelock (1928),
American Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth (1968), Critical
Path (1981)
1896–1960 Gaston Berger Futurist, industrialist, philosopher, and modernizer of
French French university system. Contributed noted analysis of
Edmund Husserl’s work. Key publication: Recherches sur
les conditions de la connaissance (1941)
1900–86 Walter Futurist and chemist. Researched agricultural
Greiling microbiology and predicted that systematic international
German efforts to mitigate climate change would begin in 1990.
Key publication: Wie werden wir leben? Ein Buch von den
Aufgaben unserer Zeit (1954)
1903–87 Bertrand de Futurist, political economist, philosopher, and author.
Jouvenel Pioneer of future studies. Key publications: On Power:
French The Natural History of Its Growth (1945), The Ethics of
Redistribution (1951)
1906–92 Grace Hopper Mathematician, computer scientist, and US Navy rear
American admiral. One of the first programmers of the Harvard
Mark I computer and developed the first compiler for
computer programming language
 From facts to feelings 5

Year Name Expertise and future-focused studies

1907–85 Fred Polak Futurist, philosopher, and sociologist. Theorized
Dutch the central role of imagined alternative futures. Key
publication: The Image of the Future (1973)
1911–80 Marshall Futurist, media theorist, philosopher, and author. Coined
McLuhan the phrases “the medium is the message” and “the global
Canadian village” and predicted the World Wide Web in the
1960s. Key publications: The Gutenberg Galaxy (1962),
Understanding Media (1964), Medium is the Massage:
An Inventory of Effects (1967), The Global Village:
Transformations in World Life and Media in the 21st
Century (1989)
1915–69 M.G. Gordon Futurist, businessman, inventor, and social theorist.
American Advocate for privacy rights and envisioned expanded
telephone network as the ideal social network
1916– Jacque Fresco Structural engineer, architectural designer, author, and
American educator. Writes and lectures on sustainable cities, energy
efficiency, natural resource management, cybernetic
technology, advanced automation, science in society
1917–2008 Arthur C. Futurist, inventor, TV presenter, and science fiction writer.
Clarke A polymath and popularizer of science, with many
British notable works about the future. The book and film (with
Stanley Kubrick) 2001: A Space Odyssey, based partly
on two earlier short stories by Clarke, is one of the most
influential films of all time
1918–88 Richard Theoretical physicist. Introduced the concept of
Feynman “nanotechnology” and received the Nobel Prize in Physics
American in 1965
1919– James Futurist, independent scientist, and environmentalist.
Lovelock Proposed the Gaia hypothesis and the concept
British “sustainable retreat.” Key publication: Gaia: A New Look
at Life on Earth (1979)
1919–2009 Russell L. Organizational theorist, consultant, professor. Pioneer
Ackoff in the field of operations research, systems thinking
American and management science, inspiring many future
developments in areas such as decision science
1920–92 Isaac Asimov Author and professor of biochemistry. Known for his
American works of science fiction and science. Key publications:
The Foundation Series (1949–93), I, Robot (1950), The
Intelligent Man’s Guide to Science (1960)
1921–2006 Stanisław Lem Writer of science fiction, philosophy, and satire. His
Polish books explore philosophical themes, including the nature
of intelligence, communication, human limitations,
technology, and the universe. Key publications: Solaris
(1961), The Cyberiad (1965)
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