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This page intentionally left blank
 Anticipating Risks and Organising
Risk Regulation

Anticipating risks has become an obsession of the early twenty-first

�century. Private and public sector organisations increasingly devote
resources to risk prevention and contingency planning to manage risk
events should they occur. This book shows how we can organise our
social, organisational and regulatory policy systems to cope better
with the array of local and transnational risks we regularly encounter.
Contributors from a range of disciplines€– including finance, history, law,
management, political science, social psychology, sociology and disas-
ter studies€ – consider threats, vulnerabilities and insecurities alongside
social and organisational sources of resilience and security. These issues
are introduced and discussed through a fascinating and diverse set of
topics, including myxomatosis, the 2012 Olympic Games, gene therapy
and the recent financial crisis. This is an important book for academics
and policymakers who wish to understand the dilemmas generated in the
anticipation and management of risks.

br i d g e t m . h u t t e r is Professor of Risk Regulation and Director

of the ESRC Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation (CARR) at
the London School of Economics and Political Science. She is author of
numerous publications on the subject of risk regulation and has an inter-
national reputation for her work on compliance, regulatory enforcement
and business risk management.
Anticipating Risks and
Organising Risk
Regulation

Br i dg e t M . H u t t e r
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore,
São Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo

Cambridge University Press

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521193092
© Cambridge University Press 2010

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the

provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part
may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2010

ISBN-13 978-0-511-90941-2 eBook (NetLibrary)

ISBN-13 978-0-521-19309-2 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy

of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
To Corin
Contents

Notes on contributors page ix

Preface xiii

Part Iâ•… Introduction 1

1 Anticipating risk and organising risk regulation:€current
dilemmas 3
Br i d g e t M . H u t t e r

Part IIâ•… Threat, vulnerabilities and insecurities 23

2 Risk society and financial risk 25
C l i v e Br i au lt
3 Before the sky falls down:€a ‘constitutional dialogue’
over the depletion of internet addresses 46
J e a n e t t e Hof m a n n
4â•… Changing attitudes to risk? Managing myxomatosis in
twentieth-century Britain 68
Peter Ba rtrip
5 Public perceptions of risk and ‘compensation culture’ in
the UK 90
S a l ly L l oy d -B os t o c k
6 Colonised by risk€– the emergence of academic risks in
British higher education 114
M ic h a e l H u be r

vii
viii Contents

Part IIIâ•… Social, organisational and regulatory sources of

resilience and security 137
â•›7 Regulating resilience? Regulatory work in high-risk arenas 139
C a r l M ac r a e
â•›8 Critical infrastructures, resilience and organisation of
mega-projects:€the Olympic Games 161
W i l l J e n n i ng s a n d M a r t i n L od g e
â•›9 Creating space for engagement? Lay membership in
contemporary risk governance 185
K e v i n E . Jon e s a n d A l a n I rw i n
10 Bioethics and the risk regulation of ‘frontier research’:€
the case of gene therapy 208
Jav i e r L e z au n
11 Preparing for future crises:€lessons from research 231
A rj e n B oi n
12╅ Conclusion:€important themes and future research
directions 249
Br i d g e t M . H u t t e r

References 265
Author index 296
Subject index 301
Contributors

Peter Bartrip is a historian and Associate Research Fellow at the

Centre for Socio-Legal Studies in the University of Oxford. He holds
degrees from the Universities of Swansea, Saskatchewan and Cardiff.
Until recently he was Reader in History at the University of North-
ampton. He has published histories of workmen’s compensation, the
British Medical Journal and the British Medical Association, and books
on several aspects of occupational health and safety. His most recent
book, funded by the Wellcome Trust, was Myxomatosis. A History of
Pest Control and the Rabbit (2008). He has published many articles
in scholarly journals and is currently working on both the history of
no-fault compensation for road traffic accident victims and aspects of
the history of lung cancer.
Arjen Boin is a professor at Utrecht University. He received his
Ph.D. from Leiden University, the Netherlands where he taught at the
Department of Public Administration before moving to Louisiana State
University. He is a founding director of Crisisplan (an international
crisis consultancy based in the Netherlands). Dr Boin has published
widely on topics of crisis and disaster management, leadership, institu-
tional design and correctional administration. His most recent books
are The Politics of Crisis Management (Cambridge University Press,
2005, winner of APSA’s Herbert A. Simon book award), Governing
�after Crisis (Cambridge University Press, 2008) and Crisis Manage-
ment: A Three Volume Set of Essential Readings (2008). Dr Boin
serves on the editorial board of Risk Management and the Journal of
Contingencies and Crisis Management. He is the incoming editor of
Public Administration, a premier journal in the field.
Clive Briault is an independent consultant on risk and regula-
tion issues, a programme leader for the Toronto Centre for Leadership
in Financial Supervision, and a non-executive director of a financial
�services company. He has held senior positions in the Bank of England

ix
x Contributors

and the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA), most recently as Man-

aging Director, Retail Markets, at the UK FSA. He has published art-
icles on a range of regulatory and monetary policy issues, including on
the costs of inflation, central bank independence and accountability,
the rationale for a single financial services regulator, derivatives and
systemic risk, and supervision after the 2008 credit crunch.
Jeanette Hofmann is a researcher at the Centre for the Analysis
of Risk and Regulation at the London School of Economics and the
Social Science Research Centre, Berlin. Her work focuses on global
governance, particularly on the regulation of the Internet and on the
transformation of intellectual property rights. She holds a Ph.D. in Pol-
itical Science from the Free University Berlin. In 2009, she co-edited
‘Governance als Prozess’/Governance as process, an interdisciplinary
collection of German contributions to the governance research.
Michael Huber is Professor of Higher Education Studies at the In-
stitute of Science and Technology Studies at the University of Bielefeld
and Research Associate at the Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regu-
lation, London School of Economics and Political Science. He earned
his Ph.D. at the European University Institute in Florence in 1991 and
defended his Habilitation at the University of Leipzig in 2005. His
main research interests are in the fields of organisational sociology,
higher education studies and risk and regulation.
Bridget M. Hutter is Professor of Risk Regulation at the �London
School of Economics and Political Science and Director of the ESRC
Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation (CARR). She has held re-
search and teaching appointments at the Universities of Oxford and
London and is former editor of the British Journal of Sociology. She is
author of numerous publications on the subject of risk regulation and
has an international reputation for her work on compliance, regula-
tory enforcement and business risk management. Previous publications
include Compliance (1997), Socio-Legal Reader in �Environmental
Law (editor:€1999), Regulation and Risk (2001) and Organizational
Encounters with Risk (edited with M. Power, Cambridge University
Press, 2005). She is currently examining trends in risk regulation and
preparing a research monograph Business Risk Management:€ Man-
aging Risks and Responding to Regulation. She is regularly involved
in policymaking discussions, with international bodies such as the
Contributors xi

World Economic Forum and with business organisations and regula-

tory agencies in the UK.
A l a n I rw i n is a professor at Copenhagen Business School. His
books include Risk and the Control of Technology (1985), Citizen
Science (1995), Sociology and the Environment (2001) and (with
Mike Michael) Science, Social Theory and Public Knowledge (2003).
With Brian Wynne, he was the co-editor of Misunderstanding Sci-
ence? (Cambridge University Press, 1996). His research interests in-
clude scientific governance and societal debates over risk-related tech-
nologies. He currently chairs the UK Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences Â�Research Council (BBSRC) strategy panel on ‘bioscience for
society’.
Will Jennings is ESRC/Hallsworth Research Fellow at the Univer-
sity of Manchester, and a Research Associate at the ESRC Centre for
Analysis of Risk and Regulation at the London School of Economics
and Political Science. His research explores the politics and manage-
ment of risk in mega-projects and mega-events such as the Olympic
Games. His research is currently funded through an ESRC Research
Fellowship. Other research interests include the responsiveness of
government to public opinion, issue ownership by political parties,
agenda-setting, and blame management by public officeholders. He is
also co-director of the UK Policy Agendas Project which analyses the
agenda of British government between 1911 and present.
Kevin Jones is Senior Research Associate at the University of Al-
berta, in Edmonton, Canada. His current research interests include
the application of science and expertise in developing environmental
policy, public perceptions of risk and environment and the interrela-
tionship between scientific controversies and society.
Javier Lezaun is the James Martin Lecturer in Science and Tech-
nology Governance at the Institute for Science, Innovation and Soci-
ety, Said Business School, University of Oxford. He received a Ph.D. in
science and technology studies from Cornell University, and has taught
at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Amherst
College. His work focuses on the social aspects of innovations in the
life sciences, and on the political impacts of new biotechnologies. He
is co-editor of the forthcoming volume Catastrophe:€Law,
� Politics and
the Humanitarian Impulse.
xii Contributors

Sally Lloyd-Bostock is a professorial research fellow at the

ESRC Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation. Her research con-
cerns the relationship between psychology and law, and she has par-
ticular interests in theoretical aspects of interdisciplinary work. Areas
of her empirical research have included the social psychology of neg-
ligence claims and formal complaints; health and safety regulation;
juries and courtroom decision-making; and medical regulation by the
General Medical Council. She was previously Professor of Law and
Psychology and Director of the Institute for Judicial Administration
at the University of Birmingham; and Senior Research Fellow at the
Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford.
Martin Lodge is Reader in Political Science & Public Policy in the
Department of Government, and Research Theme Director at the ESRC
Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation, at the London School of
Economics and Political Science. His primary research interests are in
the area of comparative executive government and regulation. Among
his publications are The Oxford Handbook of Regulation (edited with
Robert Baldwin and Martin Cave, 2010); The Politics of Public Ser-
vice Bargains (with Christopher Hood, 2006) and Regulatory Innov-
ation (edited with Julia Black and Mark Thatcher, 2005).
Carl Macrae is Special Advisor with the National Patient Safety
Agency working on new approaches to analysing and learning from
patient safety incidents. His research interests focus on the analysis
and management of risk, knowledge and resilience, particularly in
safety-critical and high-consequence industries. Carl holds a Ph.D. in
organisational risk and safety management, conducted in collabor-
ation with a large airline, and previously held posts at the ESRC Cen-
tre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation, London School of Economics
and Political Science and in the regulatory risk group of an investment
bank. Carl is a Chartered Psychologist and his book, Risk and Resili-
ence:€Near-Miss Management in the Airline Industry, is forthcoming.
Preface

Risk regulation in the twenty-first century struggles with new risks

and finding better ways of organising to anticipate and control them.
Science and technology develop in new directions; the interconnect-
edness between local and distant infrastructures and communication
channels are increasing; and businesses, politicians and regulators try
to develop improved social and organisational sources of resilience.
In so doing new regulatory spaces are sought out and exploited and
in turn, some of these become the source of new unintended regu-
latory risks. The anticipation of risks and their control can only go
so far and sometimes we have seen unrealistic expectations of con-
trol emerge. These are the issues which mould this book. The various
chapters address how we organise at a social, organisational and regu-
latory level to cope better with the array of local and transnational
risks we encounter. This necessarily raises questions about resilience,
innovation and their limits especially in a global setting. This volume
argues that we are witnessing attempts to reposition from expect�
ations of total security and resilience to a more balanced and nuanced
approach which accepts that zero tolerance is neither achievable nor
even desirable.
The objective of this edited volume is to provide a high-profile col-
lection of papers by scholars from a variety of disciplines, including
finance, history, law, management, political science, social psych-
ology, sociology and disaster studies. Substantively it considers
threats, vulnerabilities and insecurities alongside social and organisa-
tional sources of resilience and security. Of particular interest is an
examination of the risk regulation dilemmas and innovations involved
in managing these risks. The specific analytical focus of the volume
is the notion of anticipation, more precisely the anticipation of risks
and how the concerns they generate influence the way we organise
our policy systems. This distinctive characteristic of the concept of
risk is key to its understanding and relates to another intention of the

xiii
xiv Preface

collection, namely to address academic debates about risk and link

them to policy concerns. The late Aaron Wildavsky drew out these
connections in his seminal work Searching for Safety and the debates
he discusses in this work are developed through many of the chapters
of this book.
This volume would not have been possible without support. I am
very grateful to the ESRC for their support of the Centre for Analysis
of Risk and Regulation (CARR) at the London School of Economics.
Their generous funding, plus the seed funding from the Michael
Peacock Charitable Trust, has been invaluable in encouraging the
development of risk regulation debates in the UK and beyond. Former
and existing colleagues in CARR have been important in fostering an
intellectual climate for leading discussions about risk and its regula-
tion and I am delighted that so many of them are contributors to this
volume. They are joined by others who have been valued contribu-
tors to CARR events. I am grateful to them all for their patience in
the editorial process, to the referees of the manuscript and also those
colleagues I drafted in to referee individual papers. I am indebted to
Attila Szanto whose research assistance has been invaluable in pre-
paring the manuscript for publication. His meticulous attention to
detail and efficiency is much appreciated. I would also like to thank
Chris Harrison who has been so supportive of this project in such
risky times for us all. Finally I should thank my family for their sup-
port. My children have each been promised a book dedication:€this
one is for Corin who might find the subject matter particularly rele-
vant as he pursues studies in science.
Pa rt I

Introduction
1 Anticipating risk and organising risk
regulation:€current dilemmas
Br i dg e t M . H u t t e r

This book takes as its analytical focus the notion of anticipation,

more precisely the anticipation of risks and how the concerns they
generate influence the way we organise our policy systems. There
seems to be a contemporary obsession with anticipating risks,
acting to prevent them and having in place plans to manage risk
events should they occur. Private and public sector organisations
increasingly devote resources to risk prevention and contingency
planning. And typically there is much criticism if events are not
adequately predicted however unrealistic such predictions may be
in reality. Social theorists see this trend as an inherent part of mod-
ern social and organisational life, some relating it to fundamental
social changes and others relating it to new forms of governance
and organisation. Certainly anticipating risks and organising for
their control is an integral part of risk regulation regimes which
have long been associated as much with their proactive as their
reactive activities.
This book explores current dilemmas in anticipating risks and
organising risk regulation for their mitigation. A key debate focuses
on the value of anticipatory strategies and their impact on innovation
and resilience. The chapters consider the importance of anticipation in
framing risk regulation debates and policies in the public and private
sectors. They consider whether or not concerns about anticipation
are new, distinctively ‘modern’ considerations as risk society theories
suggest. They also have different views about how extensive or inev-
itable anticipatory perspectives are. This chapter (Part I) will set out
the main concepts and debates and set the scene for the papers and
discussions that follow. It will lay out the significance of the concept
of anticipation to risk regulation and consider the debates to which
it gives rise.

3
4 Bridget M. Hutter

Anticipating risk:€risk as anticipation

Modern social theorists regard anticipation as central to the con-
cept of risk, notably the anticipation of dangerand catastrophe. Beck
(2006 and 2009) makes an important distinction between risk as an
anticipated event and catastrophe as an actual event:€‘Risk means the
anticipation of catastrophe … At the moment at which risks become
real … they cease to be risks and become catastrophes … Risks are
always events that are threatening’ (Beck 2006:€332). He claims that
we live in a world where we are ‘increasingly occupied with debat-
ing, preventing and managing risks’. Luhmann’s (1993) distinc-
tion between risks and dangers also associates risk with ‘potential’
losses as opposed to the actual losses involved with dangers. Giddens
(1999a) shares this view and sees this partly as a consequence of a
growing preoccupation with the future. He argues that there is no
longer a belief in fate but an ‘aspiration to control’ the future. This
is partly attributed to the growth of science. Beck (2006) believes
that a growing belief in science, rationality and calculability is sig-
nificant. We live, he argues, in a world where we know much more
about risks through science. But this greater appreciation of the risks
serves to heighten feelings of insecurity and is rarely matched by a
greater ability to control or manage risk. Beck and Giddens are pes-
simistic and cynical about these pre-emptive, anticipatory stances.
Giddens (1999a) observes that there is a ‘plurality of future scenarios’
and no certainty about which is most accurate. Beck (2006:€329) is
much more critical, referring to the ‘optimistic futility with which the
highly developed institutions of modern society … attempt to antici-
pate what cannot be anticipated’.
An underlying theme in theory writing is that risk is essentially
a modern concept and phenomenon. Bernstein (1996) and Giddens
(1999a) claim that traditional cultures did not have notions of risk;
they were rather fatalistic in their outlooks. Beck identifies the risk
society as a peculiarly modern phenomenon and one which creates
and encounters new potentially catastrophic global risks emanating
from science. Luhmann (1993) also sees modern societies as risk-
ier than previous societies but his explanation is rather different.
Luhmann distinguishes between risks and dangers. He regards risks
as potential losses which can be related to decisional uncertainty and
dangers as potential losses which can be attributed to factors outside
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