Draft Detailed Project Report

Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors, Inter
Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India (Lot1/Madhya
Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Hiwarkhedi-Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

6. TRAFFIC SURVEYS, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

6.1. BETUL-KHANDWA ROAD (NH-347B)
6.1.1. INTRODUCTION
The “Khandwa-Betul” section of NH-347B lies in the State of Madhya Pradesh and is about 168 km long. The project
starts from Khandwa to Betul of NH-347B. This part of NH-347B is presently a 2-lane road and is proposed to be
widened to 2Lane +PS/ Four Lanes to meet the immediate and future needs of traffic.
This report includes all the required details of traffic surveys conducted, analysis performed & forecasts made and
these are presented in following Sections.
Section 4.1 Introduction
Section 4.2 Planning of Traffic Survey
Section 4.3 Traffic Survey Analysis
Section 4.4 O-D Survey Analysis
Section 4.5 Speed and Delay Survey
Section 4.6 PC & AC Survey
Section 4.7 Registration Plate Survey
Section 4.8 Axle Load Survey
Section 4.9 Traffic Forecasting
Section 4.10 Toll Lane Estimation
Section 4.11 Toll Revenue

6.2. PLANNING OF TRAFFIC SURVEY

6.2.1. Planning of Surveys
A map study was taken up for the project road & all the possible diversions identified for the traffic in the project
stretch of NH-347B & SH 26. The team members of the study team visited the site and carried out a reconnaissance
survey to identify the proposed locations of the surveys in conjunction with the network of roads. The network was
also verified by visiting all the associated road junctions and links so as to assess the traffic level and the requirements
of survey arrangements.
Traffic survey locations for carrying out Traffic Volume Count, Origin-Destination survey and Axle load Survey were
selected considering the following parameters:
The Traffic Survey Locations should represent homogeneous traffic section
The Traffic Survey Locations should be outside urban and local traffic influence
Schedule of Primary Surveys
To capture traffic flow characteristics and travel pattern of users passing through the project road and other
characteristics related to miscellaneous requirements as per the ToR following primary traffic surveys were
conducted.
Classified Traffic Volume Count (VC)

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 Draft Detailed Project Report
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Turning Movement Count Survey (TMC)

Origin-Destination Survey (OD)
Pedestrian Count & Animal Count Survey (PC & AC)
Speed and Delay Survey (SD)
Axle Load Survey (AL)
The traffic survey locations are presented in Table 6-1 and Figure 6-1.
Table 6-1: Traffic Survey Locations – Betul-Khandwa -2023
S. No. Type of Survey Survey Code Survey Location/ Section Date
VC-1 1. Chikli (19+000 km) 24-Sep to 30-Sep
Classified Volume
VC-2 2. Jinjhri (72+500 km) 24-Sep to 30-Sep
1 Count Survey
VC-3 3. Fhepri Khurd (121+500 km) 24-Sep to 30-Sep
(7 Days 24 Hours)
VC-4 4. Dharampuri (21+000km) 24-Sep to 30-Sep
OD-1 1. Chikli (19+000 km) 27-Sep
Origin-Destination
OD-2 2. Jinjhri (72+500 km) 27-Sep
2 Survey
OD-3 3. Fhepri Khurd (121+500 km) 25-Sep
(24 Hours)
OD-4 4. Dharampuri (21+000km) 25-Sep
LP-1 1. Chikli (19+000 km) 27-Sep
License Plate Count LP-2 2. Jinjhri (72+500 km) 27-Sep
3
LP-3 3. Fhepri Khurd (121+500 km) 25-Sep
LP-4 4. Dharampuri (21+000km) 25-Sep
TMC-1 1. Hiwarkhedi (0+000 km) 27-Sep
TMC-2 2. Bhimpur (26+960 km) 26-Sep
TMC-3 3. Auliya (95+450 km) 30-Sep
Turning Movement TMC-4 4. Patajan (108+940 km) 27-Sep
4 Count Survey TMC-5 5. Patajan (110+700 km) 27-Sep
(1 Day 24 Hours) TMC-6 6. Ashapur (126+800 km) 27-Sep
TMC-7 7. Ashapur (30+050 km) 27-Sep
TMC-8 8. Khandwa (0+700 km) 27-Sep
TMC-9 9. Khandwa (0+000 km) 27-Sep
Pedestrian/Animal
5 PC/AC-1 1. Auliya (95+000 km) 30-Sep Sep
Count Survey
AXL-1 1. Chikli (19+000 km) 27-Sep
Axle Load Survey AXL-2 2. Jinjhri (72+500 km) 27-Sep
6
(2 Days 24 Hours) AXL-3 3. Fhepri Khurd (121+500 km) 25-Sep
AXL-4 4. Dharampuri (21+000km) 25-Sep

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 Draft Detailed Project Report
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Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Hiwarkhedi-Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Figure 6-1: Traffic Survey Location Map

6.2.2. Methodology of Survey
Classified Traffic Volume Counts
Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey was conducted at 4 locations. The count was conducted in both directions
for successive 24 hours a day for 7 consecutive days. For carrying out the counts, the vehicles were grouped under
the following categories as shown in Table 6-53.
Traffic surveys collected on Project highway by using Portable Automatic Traffic Counter and Classifier (ATCC)
Systems. ATCC, Pneumatic tube technology was used to counting vehicles according to their class.
The Pneumatic Tube Roadside Unit is a dual air-sensor data logging unit. The Roadside Unit is used at the Count
Sensor Layouts, to obtain the count Information. The sensors were used in a split mode.

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 Draft Detailed Project Report
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Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India (Lot1/Madhya
Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Hiwarkhedi-Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

The figures below show How Classifiers Work: -

Process Image - 1 Process Image - 1

Process Image - 3 Process Image - 4

Process Image - 5 Process Image - 6

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 Draft Detailed Project Report
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Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India (Lot1/Madhya
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Process Image - 7 Process Image - 8

Process Image - 9 Process Image - 10

Figure 6-2: Traffic Counter and Classifier (ATCC) Systems Working
Table 6-2: Vehicle Classification System
Motorized Vehicles Non-motorized Vehicles
2 wheelers Bicycle
3 wheelers Cycle Rickshaw
Passenger Car Animal Drawn Vehicle (ADV)
Utility Vehicle (Jeep, Van etc.) Hand Cart
Mini Bus Other Non-Motorized Vehicle
Bus
Standard Bus
LCV Passenger Freight
2 – Axle Truck
Truck
3 – Axle Truck
Semi Articulated
MAV
Articulated

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 Draft Detailed Project Report
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Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India (Lot1/Madhya
Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Hiwarkhedi-Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Origin-Destination Survey
The Origin – Destination survey was carried out with the primary objective of studying the travel pattern of passenger
and goods traffic along the study corridor. The result of this survey forms a useful input for estimating the growth
rates for traffic projections and planning for toll collection system.
The O-D survey was conducted at 3 locations as mentioned in Table 6-54 as per the guidelines given in IRC: 102-
1988. Roadside interview method was adopted for conducting the survey. The vehicles were stopped at random
sample basis with the help of police and the drivers were interviewed by trained enumerators to collect the needed
information/ data. The pertinent information in respect of travel characteristics including the following were
collected during these interviews:
Origin and Destination of the trip
Trip length
Trip purpose
Commodity type
Loading pattern
The sample size of the survey for both Passenger and Goods vehicles is given in Table 6-54.
Table 6-3: Sample Size for OD Survey (%)
Both Directions Km 19 Km 70 Km 121 Km 21
Commercial Vehicles
LCV 11.2% 19.4% 30.4% 15.9%
2 - AXLE 21.0% 31.3% 90.0% 44.0%
3 - AXLE 23.1% 35.9% 25.6% 19.5%
Multi Axle 24.6% 31.4% 40.0% 23.8%
Total 15.9% 27.2% 35.5% 21.9%
Passenger Vehicles
CARS 26.7% 50.0% 58.5% 21.1%
BUSES 36.7% 32.0% 90.9% 33.3%
Total 27.6% 47.1% 61.2% 21.4%
Turning Movement Survey
The Turning Movement Survey was conducted at 9 major intersections on the project highway to obtain information
on directional movement of traffic at intersections along the highway. Classified traffic volume counts of all vehicle
types were made separately for all turning movements from each approach as per guidelines given in IRC Code SP-
41:1994. The survey was conducted recording traffic for each successive 15-minute intervals, for 24 hours on a
working day with the help of trained enumerators. Each turning movement at the intersection was recorded by
deploying enumerators in sufficient numbers at suitable locations. The data on peak hour volume with turning
movement flows would be used to analyze and design the intersection.
Speed & Delay Survey
The survey was conducted by adopting moving car observer method. The study corridor was demarcated into
different homogeneous sections. The test vehicle was run at the perceptible average speed of traffic stream along
the project road. The observers traveling in test car noted the journey, running & delay timings and cause of delays,
if any. The test vehicle was run in both directions of the traffic stream and numbers of runs were made in the peak/
off-peak hours. The cause and duration of stoppages and other delays were recorded.
Pedestrian and Animal Count Survey

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The survey was conducted at Auliya, along the project corridor by trained enumerators who noted down pedestrian
and animal movement across the road using hand tally marks. Analysis of these data will indicate the locations where
exclusive pedestrian grade separators or animal/cattle crossings will have to be provided across the corridor.

6.3. TRAFFIC SURVEY ANALYSIS

6.3.1. Analysis of Traffic Volume Count Survey
Since the data collected from the site for the various vehicle types having different sizes and characteristics are to
be converted into a standard equivalent unit called Passenger Car Unit (PCU). The Passenger Car Unit (PCU) Values
(Rural Roads) as suggested in the IRC: 64 – 1990 “Guideline for Capacity of Roads on Highway” have been adopted
as given in Table 6-55.
Table 6-4: PCU Factors Adopted
Fast Vehicles Slow Vehicles
Vehicle Group PCU Factor Vehicle Group PCU Factor
Car, Jeep, Van, Taxi and Utility Vehicles 1.0 Bicycle 0.5
Auto Rickshaw / Tempo 1.0 Cycle Rickshaw 2.0
2 Wheelers 0.5 Animal Drawn 6.0
Mini Bus 1.5 Hand Drawn 3.0
Standard Bus 3.0 Other Slow-Moving Vehicles 4.0
Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) 1.5
2 – Axle Truck 3.0
3 – Axle Truck 3.0
Multi Axle Truck (Semi Articulated &
4.5
Articulated)/ HCM/EME
Agriculture Tractor 1.5
Agriculture Tractor with Trailer 4.5
Exempted Vehicles 1.0
Traffic Volume Count Data for 7 days at each location was averaged to determine Average Daily Traffic (ADT).
Summary for all locations is presented in Appendix 6-1. The summarized ADT in terms of ADT (nos.), ADT (PCU) and
Peak Hour details are presented in the Table 6-56 & Table 6-57
Table 6-5: ADT Summary (nos.)
5.Km 21 of
Categories 1. Km19 2. Km 72 3. Km 121 4. Km 21
SH 26
2 Wheelers 3941 3941 1775 656 4592
3 Wheelers (Passenger) 182 182 82 1 7
Cars/Vans/ Jeep (Private) 411 411 185 140 980
Taxi 9 9 4 2 14
Mini Bus 3 3 1 0 0
Standard Bus 71 71 24 5 35
LCV Passenger = Shared 30 30 10 14 98
LCV Goods = LMV 178 178 60 23 161
LCV Goods 65 65 22 23 161
2 Axle 33 33 11 14 98
3 Axle 71 71 24 23 161
MAV - Semi Articulated 33 33 11 13 91
MAV - Articulated 3 3 1 0 0
Cycle 80 80 53 90 630
Cycle Rickshaw 2 2 1 3 21

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5.Km 21 of
Categories 1. Km19 2. Km 72 3. Km 121 4. Km 21
SH 26
Animal Drawn Vehicles 10 10 5 10 70
Other NMV 6 6 3 0 0
Tractor 25 25 13 5 35
Tractor Trailor 80 80 42 11 77
Toll Exempted 4 4 2 1 7
Total Vehicles 5237 5237 2329 1034 7238
Table 6-6: ADT Summary (PCU)
5.Km 21 of
Categories 1. Km19 2. Km 72 3. Km 121 4. Km 21
SH 26
2 Wheelers 1971 1971 888 328 2296
3 Wheelers (Passenger) 182 182 82 1 7
Cars/Vans/ Jeep (Private ) 411 411 185 140 980
Taxi 9 9 4 2 14
Mini Bus 5 5 2 0 0
Standard Bus 213 213 72 15 105
LCV Passenger = Shared 30 30 10 14 98
LCV Goods = LMV 267 267 60 23 242
LCV Goods 98 98 33 35 242
2 Axle 99 99 33 42 294
3 Axle 213 213 72 69 483
MAV - Semi Articulated 149 149 50 59 410
MAV - Articulated 14 14 5 0 0
Cycle 40 40 27 45 315
Cycle Rickshaw 4 4 2 6 42
Animal Drawn Vehicles 80 80 30 60 560
Other NMV 24 24 18 0 0
Tractor 113 113 20 8 158
Tractor Trailor 360 360 189 50 347
Toll Exempted 4 4 3 2 7
Total PCUs 4283 4283 1785 899 6600
Table 6-7: Peak Hour Factor (PCU %)
Chainage Location of Peak Hour
Location Average Daily Traffic Peak Hour Volume
(km) Survey Factor
Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs %
Hiwarkhedi to Roshni
VC-1 Km 19 Dharmapuri 4736 4254 379 309 7.25%
VC-2 Km 72 Jhinjhri 913 804 95 73 9.08%
VC-3 Km 121 Phepri Khurd 2326 1782 193 143 8.00%
VC-4 Km 21 Chikhli 1034 897 99 79 8.81%
Ashapur to Rudhy
Km 21 of
VC-1 Chikhli 7238 6600 599 579 8.81%
SH 26

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CVC Location @km 19 CVC Location @km 70

CVC Location @km 121 CVC Location @km 21

Figure 6-3: Traffic Survey Location Photographs
Composition of Traffic
Traffic Composition at all CVC locations in terms of ADT (Nos.) is given in Table 6-59 and Figure 6-14.

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Figure 6-4: Composition of Traffic (in terms of ADT (Nos.) at all CVC Locations
Table 6-8: Peak Hour Factor (PCU %)
ADT ADT %age
Mode
Km 19 Km 72 Km 121 Km 21 Km 19 Km 72 Km 121 Km 21
2 Wheeler 3061 645 1775 656 64.6% 76.2% 70.5% 63.4%
3 Wheeler 152 5 82 1 3.2% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Cars 670 109 199 156 14.1% 8.5% 11.9% 15.1%
Buses 83 27 27 6 1.8% 1.2% 3.0% 0.6%
LMV+LCV 388 41 82 46 8.2% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Trucks 274 49 47 50 5.8% 2.0% 5.4% 4.8%
Tractors 43 7 55 16 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 1.5%
NMV 67 32 62 103 1.4% 2.7% 3.5% 10.0%
Total 4738 915 2329 1034 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
The above table shows the highest traffic number at km19 followed by km 121. The second location (km72) has the
lowest traffic number. All the traffic locations has the highest share of 2wheelers because of the nearby settlements.
But the highest share of commercial traffic share is on first location.
Daily variation of Traffic
Daily variation of traffic during different days of week at all CVC locations in terms of ADT (Nos.) is given in Figure 6-
15.

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Figure 6-5: Daily Variation of Traffic (in terms of ADT (Nos.) at all CVC Locations
Hourly Variation of Traffic
A typical hourly variation of traffic for all 3 survey locations are plotted in Figure 6-16

Km 19

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Km 72

Km 121

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Km 21

Figure 6-6: Hourly Variation of Traffic at Various Locations

Directional Distribution
The directional traffic data were analyzed to establish the directional distribution of traffic. The directional
distribution for different locations is presented in the Table 6-60.
Table 6-9: Directional Distribution for different locations
Station No. Chainage (km) Betul to Khandwa Khandwa to Betul
VC-1 Km 19 49.94% 50.11%
VC-2 Km 72 52.14% 47.97%
VC-3 Km 123 50.04% 49.87%
VC-4 Km 21 48.84% 51.16%
6.3.2. Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is calculated by multiplying ADT with a seasonal factor. Seasonal variation
factors by vehicle types are required to account for variations in the pattern of traffic volume on the project road
sections over different months or seasons of the year. There are various methods of determining the seasonal factor
like through past traffic count data or secondary data (fuel sales data & toll plaza data). The past traffic count
methodology is useful if it carried out round the year, but year-round counts are seldom done in India on any road.
Therefore, the seasonal factors are mostly calculated through secondary data. In this study the seasonal factor has
been derived from the Fule Sale Data for past 2 years. The monthly data is presented in Table 6-61.
Table 6-10: Monthly Vehicle Data at Guna Toll Plaza
Fuel Satation 1 Fuel Satation 2 Combined SCF
Months 2015- 2016-
2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 Avg 2015-16 Avg
16 17
Petrol Data
Apr. 15 32.0 42.0 34.0 44.0 66.0 86.0 76.0 0.83 0.89 0.86
May. 15 26.0 36.0 28.0 38.0 54.0 74.0 64.0 1.02 1.03 1.03
June. 15 32.0 42.0 38.0 44.0 70.0 86.0 78.0 0.78 0.89 0.84
July. 15 20.0 30.0 29.0 32.0 49.0 62.0 55.5 1.12 1.23 1.18

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Fuel Satation 1 Fuel Satation 2 Combined SCF

Months 2015- 2016-
2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 Avg 2015-16 Avg
16 17
Aug. 15 29.0 39.0 24.0 41.0 53.0 80.0 66.5 1.04 0.96 0.99
Sep. 15 23.0 33.0 23.0 35.0 46.0 68.0 57.0 1.19 1.13 1.15
Oct. 15 26.0 36.0 20.0 38.0 46.0 74.0 60.0 1.19 1.03 1.10
Nov. 15 32.0 42.0 25.0 44.0 57.0 86.0 71.5 0.96 0.89 0.92
Dec. 15 26.0 36.0 28.0 38.0 54.0 74.0 64.0 1.02 1.03 1.03
Jan. 16 26.0 36.0 24.0 38.0 50.0 74.0 62.0 1.10 1.03 1.06
Feb. 16 26.0 36.0 28.0 38.0 54.0 74.0 64.0 1.02 1.03 1.03
Mar. 16 29.0 39.0 31.0 41.0 60.0 80.0 70.0 0.92 0.96 0.94
Diesel Data
Apr. 15 44 54 40 143 84 197 140.5 1.80 0.77 1.08
May. 15 74 84 23 126 97 210 153.5 1.56 0.72 0.99
June. 15 104 114 95 100 199 214 206.5 0.76 0.71 0.73
July. 15 8 18 45 47 53 65 59.0 2.85 2.34 2.57
Aug. 15 35 45 43 47 78 92 85.0 1.93 1.65 1.78
Sep. 15 29 39 48 51 77 90 83.5 1.96 1.69 1.81
Oct. 15 110 120 154 27 264 147 205.5 0.57 1.03 0.74
Nov. 15 92 102 156 59 248 161 204.5 0.61 0.94 0.74
Dec. 15 50 60 160 73 210 133 171.5 0.72 1.14 0.88
Jan. 16 26 36 140 116 166 152 159.0 0.91 1.00 0.95
Feb. 16 50 60 105 110 155 170 162.5 0.97 0.89 0.93
Mar. 16 95 105 85 89 180 194 187.0 0.84 0.78 0.81
The factor thus obtained is presented in Table 6-62.

Table 6-11: SCF Factor Adopted

S.No. Mode SCF
1 Car 1.15
2 Bus 1.00
3 Commercial 1.81
4 NMV 1.00
The Location wise AADT thus obtained is shown is Table 6-12 & Table 6-13.

Table 6-12: AADT Summary (nos.)

Km 21 on SH
Categories Km 19 Km 72 Km 121
71/26
2 Wheelers 4532 4532 2041 5281
3 Wheelers (Passenger) 329 329 148 13
Cars/Vans/ Jeep (Private) 473 473 213 1127
Taxi 16 16 7 25
Mini Bus 3 3 1 0
Standard Bus 71 71 24 35
LCV Passenger = Shared 54 54 18 177
LCV Goods = LMV 322 322 109 291
LCV Goods 118 118 40 291
2 Axle 60 60 20 177
3 Axle 129 129 43 291
MAV - Semi Articulated 60 60 20 165

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Km 21 on SH
Categories Km 19 Km 72 Km 121
71/26
MAV - Articulated 5 5 2 0
Cycle 80 80 53 630
Cycle Rickshaw 2 2 1 21
Animal Drawn Vehicles 10 10 5 70
Other NMV 6 6 3 0
Tractor 45 45 24 63
Tractor Trailor 145 145 76 139
Toll Exempted 7 7 4 13
Total vehicles 6467 6467 2852 8809
Table 6-13: AADT Summary (PCU)
Km 21 of SH
Categories Km 19 Km 72 Km 121
26
2 Wheelers 2266 2266 1021 2640
3 Wheelers (Passenger) 329 329 148 13
Cars/Vans/ Jeep (Private) 473 473 213 1127
Taxi 16 16 7 25
Mini Bus 5 5 2 0
Standard Bus 213 213 72 105
LCV Passenger = Shared 54 54 18 177
LCV Goods = LMV 483 483 109 437
LCV Goods 176 176 61 437
2 Axle 179 179 60 532
3 Axle 386 386 129 874
MAV - Semi Articulated 269 269 90 741
MAV - Articulated 24 24 9 0
Cycle 40 40 27 315
Cycle Rickshaw 4 4 2 42
Animal Drawn Vehicles 80 80 30 560
Other NMV 24 24 18 0
Tractor 204 204 36 285
Tractor Trailor 652 652 342 627
Toll Exempted 7 7 6 13
Total vehicles 5884 5884 2400 8950

6.3.3. Analysis of Turning Movement Count Survey

The Turning Movement count survey was conducted at 9 important major junctions. The respective total traffic and
peak hour traffic flows about those junctions, in Nos. & PCUs in the base year 2017 are presented in
Table 6-65 & Table 6-66.
All are three legged Junctions. The detailed diagrams are presented in Appendix B.
Table 6-14: Total Approach Traffic Flow at all Major Intersections
Total Traffic in Base Total Traffic in Base
S. No. Name of Intersection & Type Year 2017 (in Nos.) Year 2017 (in PCU’s)
Fast Slow Total Fast Slow Total
1 Hiwarkhedi (0+000 km) 3 Arms 3953 76 4029 4814 159 4973
2 Bhimpur (26+960 km) 3 Arms 1843 65 1908 1437 44 1481

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Total Traffic in Base Total Traffic in Base

S. No. Name of Intersection & Type Year 2017 (in Nos.) Year 2017 (in PCU’s)
Fast Slow Total Fast Slow Total
3 Auliya (95+450 km) 3 Arms 1640 55 1695 1206 94 1300
4 Patajan (108+940 km) 3 Arms 2577 308 2885 1975 611 2586
5 Patajan (110+700 km) 3 Arms 2563 151 2714 2044 252 2296
6 Ashapur (126+800 km) 3 Arms 21565 254 21819 19718 512 20230
7 Ashapur (30+050 km) 3 Arms 9199 66 9265 7792 50 7842
8 Khandwa (0+700 km) 3 Arms 36565 72 36637 29402 47 29449
9 Khandwa (0+000 km) 3 Arms 38152 134 38286 33411 73 33483
Table 6-15: Peak Hour Traffic Flow at Major Intersections
Peak Hour Traffic in Base Peak Hour Traffic in Base
S.
Name of Intersection Peak Hour Year 2017 (in Nos.) Year 2017 (in PCU’s)
No.
Fast Slow Total Fast Slow Total
1 Hiwarkhedi (0+000 km) 11.00-12.00 375 7 382 338 20 358
2 Bhimpur (26+960 km) 10.00-11.00 183 7 190 139 9 148
3 Auliya (95+450 km) 8.00-9.00 172 19 191 120 26 146
4 Patajan (108+940 km) 18.00-19.00 279 55 334 166 149 314
5 Patajan (110+700 km) 12.00-13.00 285 20 305 248 21 269
6 Ashapur (126+800 km) 12.00-13.00 2069 15 2084 1734 24 1758
7 Ashapur (30+050 km) 8.00-9.00 718 10 728 620 5 625
8 Khandwa (0+700 km) 17.00-18.00 3050 8 3058 2514 4 2518
9 Khandwa (0+000 km) 8.00-9.00 3376 41 3417 3084 21 3105
As per IRC: SP: 84-2009 the vehicular under/overpass will be provided at the intersection of the project highway with
all the national highways and state highways and will also be provided across other categories of the roads carrying
more than 5000 PCUs. PCUs of the cross roads for the base year and proposed structure type are shown in the Table
6-67.
Table 6-16: PCUs of the Cross Roads
Total Traffic for Total PCU for Base
S. No. Name of Intersection Base Year 2017 Year 2017 (Both Remarks/Proposal
(Both Directions) Directions)
1 Hiwarkhedi (0+000 km) 3489 4426
2 Bhimpur (26+960 km) 1255 1026
3 Auliya (95+450 km) 1022 794.5
Less than 5000 PCUs, So
4 Patajan (108+940 km) 540 634
VUP / Flyover Not Required
5 Patajan (110+700 km) 2217 1893
6 Ashapur (126+800 km) 6087 4972
7 Ashapur (30+050 km) 3401 2810
8 Khandwa (0+700 km) 12094 10005 Flyover Proposed
9 Khandwa (0+000 km) 12263 11094 Flyover Proposed

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Hiwarkheda (000+950 km) Bhimpur (26+960 km)

Auliya (95+450 km) Patajan (108+940 km)

Patajan (110+700 km)

Figure 6-7: TMC Survey at Various Locations

6.4. O-D SURVEY ANALYSIS

6.4.1. Analysis of O-D Survey
The Origin - Destination survey was carried out at 4 locations along the project stretch. Data collected from the site
were feed to the computer and compiled for the base year, using the Zoning system adopted for the study. Mode

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wise OD matrices for each location were prepared from the data collected to find the travel characteristics of the
traffic.
6.4.2. Data Screening of O-D Survey
The collected data were entered into the computer and checked manually. It was thoroughly checked for
inconsistencies in data. The checking included:
Matching vehicle type with commodity carried.
Matching vehicle type with their corresponding lead/load/occupancy for any inconsistencies
Matching trip length from the point of Origin to Destination.
Any other inconsistency in data.
After screening the corrected data were used for final analysis.
6.4.3. Zoning System
In order to assess the movement pattern on the project influence area the zoning system was developed keeping in
view the major generation and attraction centers in the area. The zones were broadly classified as Immediate
Influence Area/Zone (Along Project Corridor), Intermediate Influence Area/Zone (Other Districts of Madhya Pradesh)
& Broad Influence Area/Other States. The following O-D zones were designated to study the traffic movements in
the study area as shown in Table 6-68
Table 6-17: Zoning System Adopted for Project Corridor
Zones Name Zone Code Remarks
Immediate Influence Area/Zone (Along Project Corridor)
Khandwa 101
Bhamgarh / Rudhy / Sivna / Bhawsinghpura 102
Amalpura / Sarai / Kanwani 103
Dharampuri /TP04 (Toll Plaza Location) 104
Machhoundi / Raikhutwal / Kedi / Rajoor Mal / 105
Machhandi / Nim Kheda Ryt / Nimkhera / Jogibeda / Ashapur / Matadi
106
Mandhir
Project Road
Jamunia / Jamuniya Ashapur / Chainpur / Chainpur Kalan / Chainpur Sarkar
107 (Khandwa district)
/ Fefri
Phepri Khurd /TP03 (Toll Plaza Location) 108
Matapur / Khokhria / Mendhapani / Mendhapani Ryt / Padlia / Dagkot / 109
Khurad / Langati / Patajan / Padalda / Siraliya / Piplia / Salidhana / 110
Khari / Mohalkhari / Barakund / Awaliya / Aulia / Mata Mandir Kalighodi 111
Bagda / Chattu Battu 112
Jhijhari / TP02 (Toll Plaza Location) 113
Desli / Batla Khurd / Behda / 114
Basinda / Mohda / Pat Raiyat / Nanda / 115
Nishana / Bakka / 116
Chikhli / TP01 (Toll Plaza Location) 117
Project Road (Betul
Markada / Aprapan Behera / 118
district)
Bodijuawani / Hiwarkhedi / Deogaon 119
Akhatwada / Khedi / Khedi Sawligarh / Dahargaon / Mahagaon / 120
Bhadus / Danora 121
Betul 122
Takali / Punasa / Banggarda / Mundi / Jawar / Surgaon banjari / Ahmadpur North Khandwa
201
/ Torni / Omkareshwar District

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Zones Name Zone Code Remarks

Pandhana / Rajpura / Khirala / Chhanera / Singot / Charkheda / Samta South Khandwa
202
Bhavan Gudi / District
East Khandwa
Igriya / Old Harsud / Barud mal / Torniya / Harsud 203
District
West Khandwa
Bhagwanpura / Khalwa / Dongalia / Dhama / 204
District
Gohatti / Dhuliya / Bhainsdehi / Malni / Behda / Bhimpur / Mohda / North West Betul
301
Gadhakhar / Palaspani District
Shahpur / Sarni / Chudiya / Khokar / Bancha / Udadan / Kadhai / Panjhar / North East Betul
302
Ghoradongri / Doki District
Athner / Mandhvi / Birul Bazar / Surgaon / Satner / Jamthi / Rondha / Jhallar South West Betul
303
/ Bagwani / Datora District
Multai / Chhindi / Amla / Andharia / Khandara / Dunawa / Narera / Jambada South East Betul
304
/ Bahedi / Chichanda District
Intermediate Influence Area/Zone (Other Districts of Madhya Pradesh)
Harda 401
Nyapura / Uchan / Sontalai / Nemawar / Devtalab / Masangaon / Mandla / North West Harda
402
Khirkiya / Samardha District
Nadara / Tajpura / Kartana /Gogiya / Jaloda / Chicot / Raibor / Gokul Gram North East Harda
403
/ Bhunnas / Gausar District
Charwa / Sirali / Jamuniya / Magardha / Bon / Makri State / Runjhun / Piplia South West Harda
404
/ Rahatgaon District
South East Harda
Lokhartalai / Dhekna 405
District
Babai / Bambai / Sohagpur / Pipariya / Bankhedi / Kala Akhar / Silwani / East Hoshangabad
501
Pachmarhi / Supali district
Seoni Malwa / Itarsi / Misrod / harsood / Samardha / Dethi / Shail / West Hoshangabad
502
Neelgadh / Bordha / Dolariya district
Hoshangabad 503
Dewas 601
Dewas District
Rest of Dewas 602
Chhindwara 603 Chhindwara
Rest of Chhindwara 604 District
Khargone 605
Khargone District
Rest of Khargone 606
Burhanpur 607
Burhanpur District
Rest of Burhanpur 608
Neemuch / Mandsaur / Ratlam / Jhabua / Alirajpur / Dhar / Ujjain / Indore
609 West MP
/ Barwani /
Bhopal / Gwalior / Sehore / Shajapur / Agra / Rajgarh / Guna / Morena /
610 North MP
Bhind / Datia / Shivpuri / Sheopur /Ashok Nagar / Vidisha / Raisen /
Sagar / Tikamgarh / Chhatarpur / Panna / Damoh / Jabalpur / Seoni /
Narshimpur / Katni / Satna / Rewa / Sidhi / Singrauli / Shadol / Anupur 611 East MP
/Dindori / Mandla / Balaghat / Umaria
Broad Influence Area/Other States
Maharashtra 701 MH State
Chhattisgarh 702 CH State
Uttar Pradesh 703 UP State
Rajasthan 704 Rajasthan State

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Zones Name Zone Code Remarks

Gujarat / Dadar & Nagar Haveli (UT) / Daman & Diu (UT) 705 Gujarat State
J&K / Punjab / Himachal Pradesh / Haryana / Uttarakhand 706 North India
Karnataka / Kerala / Tamil Nadu / Andhra Pradesh / Telangana / Goa (UT) 707 South India
Bihar / Jharkhand / Odisha / West Bengal / Sikkim / Assam / Meghalaya /
708 East India
Tripura / Mizoram / Manipur / Nagaland /Arunachal Pradesh

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Figure 6-8: Map Showing the Traffic Analysis Zone

6.4.4. Development of Origin-Destination Matrices
The origin-destination details were collected from the trip makers during the O-D survey on sample basis as stopping
and interviewing all the vehicles was not possible. The sample size varied for different survey locations depending
upon the volume of traffic moving on the road. The sampling rate also varied with the change in traffic flow during
different time of the day at the same location. Since the data thus collected was on sample basis, an expansion factor
is required to replicate the pattern as reflected in the sample to the total number of vehicular trips made during the
day. These expansion factors are calculated separately for each class of vehicle. The final O-D matrices for different
vehicle types for all locations are presented in Appendix C. On the basis of O-D matrices, travel pattern of the
vehicles moving on the project road are discussed below.

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Figure 6-9: OD Surveys at Various Location

6.4.5. Travel Pattern
The travel patterns of different categories about different locations between these broadly classified zones are
presented in Table 6-69.

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Table 6-18: Travel Pattern of vehicles at different locations

Mini
Zones Description Car Bus LCV 2AT 3AT MAV Passenger Commercial
LCV
OD1 @ Km 19
Immediate Influence Zones (101 to 304) Khandwa and Betul Districts 36% 62% 19% 24% 29% 31% 19% 39% 24%
Hoshangabad district, Khandwa
Intermediate Influence Zones (401 to 611) district, Dewas district, Chhindwara 16% 4% 0% 11% 14% 3% 2% 14% 6%
district, Rest of MP
Maharashtra State, Chhattisgarh State,
UP State, Rajasthan State, Gujarat
Broad Influence Zones (701 to 708) 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
State, North India, South India, East
India
Immediate & Intermediate Influence Zones 44% 34% 57% 48% 44% 54% 48% 44% 51%
Immediate & Broad Influence Zones 1% 0% 14% 5% 3% 3% 4% 1% 7%
Intermediate & Broad Influence Zones 2% 0% 9% 10% 10% 9% 27% 2% 11%
Total (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
OD2 @ Km 72
Immediate Influence Zones (101 to 304) Khandwa and Betul Districts 50% 59% 78% 66% 63% 24% 33% 52% 51%
Hoshangabad district, Khandwa
Intermediate Influence Zones (401 to 611) district, Dewas district, Chhindwara 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
district, Rest of MP
Maharashtra State, Chhattisgarh State,
UP State, Rajasthan State, Gujarat
Broad Influence Zones (701 to 708) 2% 0% 0% 0% 19% 42% 7% 1% 13%
State, North India, South India, East
India
Immediate & Intermediate Influence Zones 33% 41% 23% 34% 19% 28% 14% 34% 24%
Immediate & Broad Influence Zones 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 8% 3%
Intermediate & Broad Influence Zones 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 33% 4% 8%
Total (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

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Mini
Zones Description Car Bus LCV 2AT 3AT MAV Passenger Commercial
LCV
OD3 @ Km 121
Immediate Influence Zones (101 to 304) Khandwa and Betul Districts 42% 41% 27% 49% 33% 56% 18% 43% 36%
Hoshangabad district, Khandwa
Intermediate Influence Zones (401 to 611) district, Dewas district, Chhindwara 2% 0% 5% 0% 6% 0% 0% 5% 3%
district, Rest of MP
Maharashtra State, Chhattisgarh State,
UP State, Rajasthan State, Gujarat
Broad Influence Zones (701 to 708) 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 1% 1%
State, North India, South India, East
India
Immediate & Intermediate Influence Zones 43% 55% 58% 33% 39% 18% 11% 42% 40%
Immediate & Broad Influence Zones 8% 5% 3% 18% 11% 20% 11% 7% 10%
Intermediate & Broad Influence Zones 2% 0% 8% 0% 11% 0% 61% 2% 10%
Total (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
OD4 @ Km 21
Immediate Influence Zones (101 to 304) Khandwa and Betul Districts 42% 100% 13% 76% 48% 42% 0% 47% 39%
Hoshangabad district, Khandwa
Intermediate Influence Zones (401 to 611) district, Dewas district, Chhindwara 11% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 19% 9% 4%
district, Rest of MP
Maharashtra State, Chhattisgarh State,
UP State, Rajasthan State, Gujarat
Broad Influence Zones (701 to 708) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
State, North India, South India, East
India
Immediate & Intermediate Influence Zones 33% 0% 87% 16% 52% 58% 24% 32%
Immediate & Broad Influence Zones 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
Intermediate & Broad Influence Zones 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 5%
Total (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

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Mini
Zones Description Car Bus LCV 2AT 3AT MAV Passenger Commercial
LCV
OD1 @ Km 21
Immediate Influence Zones (101 to 304) Khandwa and Betul Districts 42% 100% 13% 76% 48% 42% 0% 47% 39%
Hoshangabad district, Khandwa
Intermediate Influence Zones (401 to 611) district, Dewas district, Chhindwara 11% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 19% 9% 4%
district, Rest of MP
Maharashtra State, Chhattisgarh State,
UP State, Rajasthan State, Gujarat
Broad Influence Zones (701 to 708) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
State, North India, South India, East
India
Immediate & Intermediate Influence Zones 33% 0% 87% 16% 52% 58% 24% 32%
Immediate & Broad Influence Zones 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
Intermediate & Broad Influence Zones 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 5%
Total (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

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From the above illustrated tables, it can be summarized as

Trips Making LCV 2-Axle Trucks 3-Axle Trucks MAV

Within Project Corridor 50% to 84% 52% to 74% 38% to 75% 12% to 50%
Within State (M.P.) 16% to 40% 9% to 41% 9% to 35% 31% to 60%
Rest all 0% to 9% 0% to 19% 0% to 45% 16% to 36%
The Rest all trips define through traffic which illustrates importance of corridor & long-distance trip making.
6.4.6. Commodity Codes
The different commodities recorded during the O-D survey have been classified in 16 categories as presented in
Table 6-70.
Table 6-19: Commodity Classification
Commodity Code Commodity Type
1 Empty
2 Fruits and Vegetables
3 Foodgrains/ Agri product (wheat, Rice,etc.)
Manufactring Goods (Electronic items, Medicine, Leather, Tobacco, Rubber, Tyres, Plastics,
4
etc.)
5 Iron & Steel (Rod/Plate/Angel/Pole etc.)
6 Textile / Handloom
7 Chemicals & Fertilisers
8 Coal
9 Stones
10 Cement
11 Other Building material /Construction material (Bricks, Hardware, Sand etc.)
12 Household Goods (General Merchandise, Consumer Items etc.)
13 Automobiles (New Vehicles) & Machines
14 Petroleum Product / Gas
15 Parcel/Couriers
16 Forest Products (Wood/Timber/Grass etc.)
17 Milk & Milk Product
18 Conatiners
19 Soil/Powder
20 Other (Animals, Animal Feed, Box, Paper, Scrape etc.)

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6.4.7. Commodity Analysis

Table 6-20: Vehicle Wise Commodity Distribution (%)
Commodity Mini 2 3 Mini 2 3 Mini 2 3 Mini 2 3
LCV MAV Total LCV MAV Total LCV MAV Total LCV MAV Total
Code LCV Axle Axle LCV Axle Axle LCV Axle Axle LCV Axle Axle
OD OD1 @ Km 19 OD2 @ Km 72 OD3 @ Km 121 OD4 @ Km 21
1 40% 29% 29% 21% 18% 30% 50% 100% 0% 0% 22% 38% 59% 36% 44% 13% 28% 42% 63% 48% 23% 7% 24% 35%
2 29% 43% 13% 21% 9% 27% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 12% 14% 6% 13% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 9% 9% 8% 6% 29% 11% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 3% 5% 31% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 2% 6% 8% 3% 15% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 14% 3% 6% 6% 4% 8% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 6% 5% 0% 0% 7% 11% 5% 13% 0% 0% 0% 38% 8%
6 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 44% 0% 11%
7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 67% 13% 22% 14% 0% 0% 6% 22% 22% 7% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 5%
9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
10 0% 2% 6% 3% 10% 3% 0% 0% 33% 0% 11% 5% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
11 0% 5% 25% 22% 4% 9% 25% 0% 0% 38% 0% 15% 0% 0% 6% 34% 0% 7% 0% 0% 5% 14% 0% 4%
12 0% 0% 3% 0% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 3% 3% 5% 11% 11% 0% 5% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 2% 0% 0% 9% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 2%
16 2% 0% 0% 3% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 18% 3% 0% 0% 5% 7% 0% 2%
17 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 53% 43% 0% 19% 21%
18 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
19 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
20 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% 11% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 5% 7% 0% 2%
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

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km19 km72

km121 km21

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6.4.8. Lead Analysis

The O-D survey data have been analyzed to obtain lead and ranges for various goods vehicle types viz. LCV, 2-Axle,
3-Axle & MAV. The trip length frequency distribution in terms of proportion in each range is presented in Table 6-72
Table 6-21: Mode Wise Distribution of Trips by Various Lead Ranges (%)
Trip Length LCV 2- Axle 3- Axle MAV
OD1 @ Km 19
0 - 20 0% 0% 0% 0%
20 - 50 3% 2% 0% 0%
50 - 100 3% 2% 0% 2%
100 - 250 56% 67% 58% 49%
250 - 500 30% 27% 39% 22%
500 - 1000 6% 3% 3% 12%
1000-2000 2% 0% 0% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
OD2 @ Km 72
0 - 20 0% 0% 0% 0%
20 - 50 33% 0% 0% 0%
50 - 100 0% 0% 0% 0%
100 - 250 67% 100% 78% 59%
250 - 500 0% 0% 0% 0%
500 - 1000 0% 0% 16% 23%
1000-2000 0% 0% 6% 18%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
OD3 @ Km 121
0 - 20 0% 0% 0% 0%
20 - 50 41% 11% 0% 0%
50 - 100 0% 17% 11% 0%
100 - 250 19% 39% 58% 18%
250 - 500 41% 17% 18% 50%
500 - 1000 0% 11% 0% 33%
1000-2000 0% 6% 13% 0%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
OD4 @ Km 21
0 - 20 8% 5% 0% 0%
20 - 50 0% 0% 0% 0%
50 - 100 0% 0% 7% 0%
100 - 250 76% 48% 36% 62%
250 - 500 16% 47% 58% 0%
500 - 1000 0% 0% 0% 38%
1000-2000 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Based on the above results the average trip length for all locations is as presented in Table 6-73.

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Table 6-22: Average Trip Length of Goods Vehicles for each location
Vehicle Type OD 1 OD 2 OD 3 OD 4
LCV 255.36 121.39 208.13 196.29
2- Axle 226.28 150.57 293.17 189.25
3- Axle 246.91 306.32 427.55 246.78
MAV 438.26 1064.97 459.38 318.67
The Lead analysis depicts that except for LCV rest all of the categories are traveling for long distances and thus
represents through traffic.
6.4.9. Load Analysis
The O-D survey data has been analyzed to obtain load and ranges for various goods vehicle types viz. LCV, 2-Axle, 3-
Axle & MAV. The load distribution in terms of proportion in each range is presented in Table 6-74.
Table 6-23: Average Load carried by Goods Vehicles for each location
Vehicle Type LCV 2-Axle 3-Axle MAV
OD 1 11.6 17.6 14.7 13.4
OD 2 9 12.3 21.4 19.3
OD 3 3 13.8 14.2 25.6
OD 4 6.0 8.7 10.3 17.3
6.4.10. SPEED AND DELAY SURVEY
A speed and delay survey using the moving car method was carried out at 4 sections summarized in Table 6-75. This
survey provides data for assessing running speed, journey speeds and congestion levels. Journey speed is the
effective speed of a vehicle between two points. It is determined by the distance between two points divided by the
total time taken by the vehicle to complete the journey, including all delays incurred en-route. Running speed is the
average speed maintained by a vehicle over given course while the vehicle is in motion. The length of course divided
by running time determines the running speed.
Table 6-24: Summary of Speed & Delay Analysis
Mean Journey Speed Mean Running Speed
S. No From To (Kmph) (Kmph) Remarks
Up Down
1 000 40 41.56 43.05
2 40 80 43.27 44.86
Inhabited Towns
3 80 120 42.86 44.51
4 120 170 40.75 42.53
Average Speed on
42.24 43.89
Project Corridor
Table 6-76 indicates that mean journey speed is between 41 to 52 kmph and Mean running speed is between 43 to
54.5 kmph.

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Figure 6-10: Speed & Delay Graph

Considering a free speed of 80 – 100 Kmph. on open NHs, the speed presently being achieved is less than 55 Kmph,
thus suggestively the road should be improved.
6.4.11. PC & AC SURVEY
Intensity of pedestrians/animals crossing the project road will be used for deciding on location requiring grade
separators in the form of underpass, pedestrian or cattle crossing. Pedestrian-vehicular conflict can be effectively
studied through the indicator suggested in IRC 103-2012, ‘Guidelines for Pedestrian Facilities’. The code suggests
some form of control measure at mid blocks and intersections where the indicator PV2 is greater than or equal to 2
x 108. Where ‘P’ is the peak hour pedestrian volume and ‘V’ is the number of vehicles in that peak hour. The analysis
was undertaken separately for each of the intersection where traffic surveys were conducted. A summary of the
peak values for PV2 and the hour in which the same is observed is presented in Table 6-76.
Table 6-25: Pedestrian-Vehicular Conflict
S. No. Location Chainage (km.) Peak Hour P V PV2/108
1 Auliya 95.000 08.00-9.00 166 382 0.24X10^7
It has been observed that the at all the locations above, the indicator PV 2 is less than 2, therefore no control
measures is required as per the guidelines given above but except for at all these locations for pedestrian safety.
Control measures are also requiring if any of the following cases as specified in the IRC 103: 2012.
1) Approach speed of vehicles exceed 65 kmph
2) Waiting time becomes too long for pedestrian/vehicles
3) Accidents records indicate 5 or more injuries to pedestrians in a year due to collision with vehicles.

Four lanes of the highway is design at a speed of 80/100 kmph as per the 4 Lane manual. Therefore, control measures
are required at each of the pedestrian count locations.

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6.5. REGISTRATION PLATE SURVEY

Vehicle registration surveys were conducted at 4 locations. The RP Survey is for the all vehicles which are crossing
the is proposed toll plaza locations. The Vehicle Registration survey and its share presented in Table 6-77.

Table 6-26: Observed Registered Vehicles

S.
Mini
No Location Car Bus MLCV LCV 2Axle 3Axle MAV
Bus
.
84.0 100.0
86.7% 80.8% 95.1% 95.1% 86.4% 93.5%
% %
1 Chikli (17+000 km) 13.1
13.3% 19.2% 4.9% 4.9% 13.6% 0.0% 6.5%
%
2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
81.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
40.0% 70.0%
% % % % % %
2 Jinjhri (72+500 km) 18.8
46.7% 0.0% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
%
0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
66.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
20.0% 87.9%
% % % % % %
3 Fhepri Khurd (122+500 km) 25.5
0.0% 80.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
%
8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
86.7 100.0 100.0
0.0% 86.7% 73.7% 80.0%
% % %
4 Dharampuri (17+000km) 13.3 100.0
0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 15.8% 20.0%
% %
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0%

6.6. AXLE LOAD SURVEY

The following IRC-37-2012 guidelines are used in calculation of Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF) for estimation of
cumulative MSA and design thickness of proposed pavement.
The Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF) is a multiplier to convert the number of commercial vehicle of different axle loads
and axle configuration into the number of repetitions of standard axle load of magnitude 80 KN. It is defined as
equivalent number of standard axles per commercial vehicle. The VDF varies with the vehicle axle configuration and
axle loading.
The equations for computing equivalency factors for single, tandem and tri-dem axles given below should be used
for converting different axle load repetitions into equivalent standard axle load repetitions. Since the VDF values in
AASTHO Road Test for flexible and rigid pavement are not much different, for heavy duty pavements, the computed
VDF values are assumed to be same for bituminous pavements with cemented and granular bases.

Single axle with single wheel on either side = (axle load in kN)4
65
Single axle with dual wheels on either side = (axle load in kN)4
80
Tandem axle with dual wheels on either side = (axle load in kN)4
148
Tridem axles with dual wheels on either side = (axle load in kN)4
224

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VDF is arrived at carefully by carrying out specific axle load surveys on the existing roads. Axle load survey has been
carried out without any bias for loaded or unloaded vehicle. It is observed there is significant difference in axle
loading in two directions of traffic. The VDF is evaluated direction wise and Higher VDF is considered for design.
Axle load spectrum studies have been organized at three locations. Maximum values of VDF have been considered
for the full road section and summary of VDF values considered in the design is presented in Table 6-78.
Table 6-27: Observed Registered Vehicles
No. of
Vehicle Type No. of Vehicles VDF ESAL VDF ESAL VDF
Vehicles
Axle Load Km 19
Khandwa To Betul Betul To Khandwa Adopted
LCV 30 0.12 3.71 33 1.43 47.30 1.43
2-A 44 5.43 239.13 39 4.43 172.61 5.43
3-A 17 12.66 215.14 50 9.33 466.30 12.66
MAV 17 6.01 102.19 14 5.89 82.41 6.01
BUS 19 0.01 0.20 26 0.22 5.71 0.22
Total 127 24.23 560.38 162.00 21.30 774.31 24.23
Combined VDF 4.41 4.78 4.78
Axle Load Km 72
Khandwa To Betul Betul To Khandwa Adopted
LCV 12 0.01 0.09 13 0.33 4.23 0.33
2-A 2 0.38 0.76 8 4.13 33.07 4.13
3-A 12 3.16 37.86 18 7.77 139.89 7.77
MAV 5 2.09 10.47 17 3.37 57.31 3.37
BUS 5 0.10 0.52 7 0.09 0.66 0.10
Total 36 5.74 49.71 63.00 15.69 235.16 15.69
Combined VDF 1.38 3.73 3.73
Axle Load Km 121
Khandwa To Betul Betul To Khandwa Adopted
LCV 18 0.08 1.44 27 1.42 38.35 1.42
2-A 11 0.41 4.48 6 1.86 11.14 1.86
3-A 5 5.45 27.26 6 6.06 36.38 6.06
MAV 4 3.20 12.81 7 5.09 35.66 5.09
BUS 19 0.05 0.93 14 0.04 0.55 0.05
Total 57 9.19 46.91 60.00 14.47 122.08 14.47
Combined VDF 0.82 2.04 2.04
Axle Load Km 21
Khandwa To Betul Betul To Khandwa Adopted
LCV 15 3.48 52.19 18 0.05 0.86 3.48
2-A 58 0.37 21.20 62 0.15 9.29 0.37
3-A 13 8.10 105.34 10 5.85 58.51 8.10
MAV 8 4.49 35.93 2 1.28 2.55 4.49
BUS 5 0.18 0.92 4 0.19 0.75 0.19
Total 99 16.62 215.58 96.00 7.52 71.97 16.62
Combined VDF 2.18 0.75 2.18

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Km19 Km72

Km121 Km21
Figure 6-11: Axle Load Survey Photographs

6.7. TRAFFIC FORECASTING

6.7.1. Introduction
Financial resources available are always scarce & has competing demands, therefore, the investments in a highway
project have to be carefully planned, keeping in view not only the present demand but also the requirements for a
reasonable period in future. This underlines the need for estimating the future traffic accurately, whether the plan
is for the construction of a new facility or the improvement of existing facilities. The accurate estimate of future
traffic will have a significant influence on the engineering design of the facility and will influence the decision whether
to take up the project or not.
Traffic forecasting is at best an approximation, which is based on analysis of available data. Traffic is generated as a
result of the interplay of a number of contributory factors. Forecasts of traffic have, therefore, to be dependent on
the forecasts of factors such as vehicle ownership, population, Net National Product (NNP), Net State Domestic
Product (NSDP), & Per Capita Income (PCI), agricultural output, fuel consumption etc. Future pattern of change in
these factors can be estimated with only a limited degree of accuracy and hence the forecasting of future traffic
levels cannot be precise.
It is necessary to distinguish between the following types of traffic:

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Normal Traffic
This represents the existing traffic that would use the improved highway when it is opened to traffic.
Diverted Traffic
This represents the traffic attracted to the improved highway or lost to alternative routes when the improvements
are completed.
Induced Traffic
This represents the increase in traffic as a result of the increased demand for transport, if any, induced by the
improvement of the highway.
Based on this terminology the traffic demand estimates will be done for three scenarios, namely most likely scenario,
optimistic scenario, & pessimistic scenario.
6.7.2. Traffic Forecast Methodology
The exercise of traffic growth rate estimation has been carried out by us using the elasticity approach. The elasticity
method relates traffic growth to changes in the related economic parameters. According to IRC-108, 1996, elasticity
based econometric model for highway projects could be derived in the following form:
Log e (P) = A0 + A1 Log e (EI)
Where:
P = Traffic volume (of any vehicle type)
EI = Economic Indicator (GDP/NSDP/Population/PCI)
A0 = Regression constant;
A1 = Regression co-efficient (Elasticity Index)
The main steps followed are:
Defining the Project Influence Area from OD analysis of travel pattern
Estimating the past elasticity of traffic growth from time series of registered vehicles of influencing states
Assessment of future elasticity values for major vehicle groups, namely, cars, buses and trucks
Study of past performance and assessment of prospective growth rates of state economies of influence area
The growth rates are found using the formulae Eqn (a) & (b).
For Passenger vehicles,

G=∑[(R*E*I)MP] ……………….Eqn. (a)

Where Ri = Growth in PCI and Population index of MP
E = Elasticity Value
For commercial vehicles,

G=∑[(R*E*I)MP,(R*E*I)CH,(R*E*I)MH] .Eqn. (b)

Where,
R = Economic index (NSDP)

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E = Elasticity Value
I = Influence factor
6.7.3. Traffic Pattern and Influence Area
The analysis of travel pattern on the project road has been analyzed. The normalized shares of all the combinations
of ODs are presented in Table below.
State Car Bus Mini LCV LCV 2AT 3AT MAV(4-6)
Madhya Pradesh 94.93% 99.43% 97.83% 95.56% 93.14% 90.94% 83.27%
Maharashtra 2.13% 0.57% 1.27% 4.23% 4.05% 3.33% 0.30%
Chhattisgarh 2.94% 0.00% 0.90% 0.22% 2.81% 5.73% 16.44%
Note: For Passenger Traffic MP State has the Influence.
6.7.4. Vehicle Registration Data
The Vehicle registration data for Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh has been obtained from the Motor
Transport Statistics of Madhya Pradesh and is summarized in Table 6-79.
Table 6-28: On Road Motor Vehicles
Madhya Pradesh Maharastra Chattisgarh
Year
Car/Jeeps Bus Commercial Car/Jeeps Bus Commercial Car/Jeeps Bus Commercial
2004-05 271,667 25,990 296,794 1,436,196 63,405 757,016 64,213 22,294 109,612
2005-06 296,751 27,997 315,978 1,587,777 66,754 826,704 73,202 24,955 124,258
2006-07 323,224 29,177 336,228 1,763,450 89,425 920,640 83,713 33,033 140,875
2007-08 360,498 30,516 356,358 1,953,826 95,200 1,019,072 95,822 36,814 158,849
2008-09 405,860 31,520 373,129 2,118,630 97,550 1,098,026 110,663 41,098 174,868
2009-10 455,101 35,105 392,387 2,332,524 102,568 1,166,475 129,102 38,537 189,761
2010-11 526,970 36,647 415,358 2,590,223 108,538 1,267,364 155,647 42,335 206,550
2011-12 598,810 40,551 441,651 2,906,943 119,118 1,392,649 184,605 45,788 226,570
2012-13 686,456 40,633 457,708 3,230,011 129,535 1,479,968 209,055 49,684 247,305
2013-14 767,032 42,636 484,426 3,495,429 140,087 1,627,638 238,004 54,366 271,525
2014-15 871,334 45,976 525,158 3,773,418 140,102 1,732,268 267,255 58,895 294,383
CAGR 12.7% 5.7% 5.8% 10.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.5% 10.0% 10.1%
Source: MORTH Road Transport Year Book
6.7.5. Past Trend in Growth in Economy
The Economic indicators adopted for the project road are presented in Table 6-80.
Table 6-29: Socio Economic Indicators
MP MH Chattisgarh
Year GDP (Cr.)
NSDP PCI (Rs) NSDP PCI (Rs) NSDP PCI (Rs)
2005-06 2,902,180 99,940 15,442 370,023 36,077 41,387 18,559
2006-07 3,178,664 104,975 15,927 423,632 40,671 42,063 18,530
2007-08 3,469,008 114,545 17,073 481,983 45,582 50,065 21,580
2008-09 3,689,772 119,958 17,572 538,081 50,138 54,112 22,929
2009-10 3,994,165 135,124 19,442 546,533 50,183 57,662 23,926
2010-11 4,348,232 147,933 21,095 599,338 54,246 59,263 24,690
2011-12 4,619,695 155,701 22,382 667,625 59,587 64,977 27,156
2012-13 4,794,228 169,600 32,904 695,904 61,276 69,265 29,635
2013-14 4,988,116 184,062 43,426 749,137 65,095 73,027 53,815
2014-15 5,347,260 201,811 51,798 805,593 69,097 75,187 58,547
7.0% 8.7% 15.8% 8.1% 6.6% 7.2% 14.9%
Source: Socio Economic Survey

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Population Projection
The projected population of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh form year 2004 to 2015 has been
taken. The details are presented in the Table below.
Table 6-30: Projected Population of Madhya Pradesh
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MP 65202 66390 67569 68737 69897 71050 72200 73344 74482 75614 76745 65202
MH 103218 104804 106386 107972 109553 111118 112660 112373 115697 117189 118652 103218
CH 22251 22594 22934 23269 23600 23929 24258 24585 24909 25232 25555 22251

6.7.6. Traffic Demand Forecasting

Elasticity approach has been used for determining growth rates of future traffic. Since time series traffic data on
project road is available for only one count location, traffic growth rates and elasticity values are established by using
registered vehicles as the dependent variable and moderated as per the general trends of traffic observed.
Description of Regression Analysis
Regression Analysis tool performs linear regression analysis by using the "least squares" method to fit a line through
a set of observations. We can find out how a single dependent variable is affected by the values of one or more
independent variables. In this case, registered vehicles by type are the dependent variables whereas the economic
parameters are independent variables. Once the relation is established by regression, the measures explained below
are used to accept or reject the same.
t –statistic
T-statistic is a measure of how strongly a particular independent variable explains variations in the dependent
variable. The larger the t-statistic, the good is the independent variable’s explanatory power. Adjacent to each t-stat
is a P-value. The P-value is used to interpret the t-stat. In short, the P-value is the probability that the independent
variable in question has nothing to do with the dependent variable. Generally, we look for a P-value of less than
0.05, which means there is a 5% chance that the independent variable is unrelated to the dependent variable. If the
P-value is higher 0.10, a strong argument can be made for eliminating this particular independent variable from a
model because it isn’t statistically significant.
R Square
R Square is another measure of the advisory power of the model. In theory, R square compares the amount of error
explained by the model as compared to the amount of error explained by averages. The higher the R-Square, the
better it is.
A regression analysis was carried out on the database to arrive at the transport demand elasticity and growth rates
using each category of vehicle with various combinations of economic parameters and population of the respective
states. The resultant elasticity values, growth rates, R2 values and t-statistic are presented in Table below. The
highlighted parameters are selected for traffic forecast in each case, based on best fit.
Table 6-31: Elasticity Values Derived based on Regression Analysis
Madhya Pradesh Maharastra Chattisgarh
Mode Variable
R square t - stat Elasticity R square t - stat Elasticity R square t - stat Elasticity
NSDP 0.994 36.263 1.484 0.989 26.589 1.290 0.959 13.653 2.229
Car POP 0.995 39.782 7.628 0.982 20.680 7.133 0.997 53.927 10.908
PCI 0.937 10.924 0.730 0.984 22.213 1.577 0.860 6.997 0.919
NSDP 0.980 19.900 0.684 0.956 13.222 0.980 0.968 15.657 1.246
Buses POP 0.983 21.460 3.521 0.920 9.571 5.332 0.925 9.924 5.844
PCI 0.904 8.690 0.333 0.959 13.716 1.202 0.797 5.601 0.492
NSDP 0.994 37.622 0.655 0.992 31.960 1.066 0.977 18.446 1.413
Trucks POP 0.996 44.095 3.366 0.981 20.460 5.883 0.998 63.623 6.852
PCI 0.917 9.375 0.318 0.988 26.037 1.303 0.000 0.000 0.000

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6.7.7. Projected transport demand elasticity

In order to arrive at realistic future elasticity for the project road, various factors relating to vehicle technology
changes, in addition to character of traffic and travel pattern on the project road, have been considered. Also
Elasticity values derived from regression analysis gives higher value as registered vehicle data include vehicles which
are registered new but do not take into account vehicles which are going off the road due to old age.
High elasticity of cars being witnessed now is because of large demand facilitated by financing schemes and loans.
Factors like growth of household incomes (particularly in urban areas), reduction in the prices of entry-level cars,
growth of the used car market, changes in life-style, growing personal incomes, desire to own a vehicle, facilitated
by availability of loans/financing schemes on easy terms etc. have all contributed to the rapid growth in ownership
of cars. However, such trend would slow down and elasticity can be expected to decline.
Over the years, there has been a change in passenger movement with more and more people shifting towards
personalized modes. Moreover, buses are usually plying on fixed pre-decided routes and thus elasticity values for
buses have been considered accordingly.
With the changing freight vehicle mix in favour of LCVs for short distance traffic and 3-axle/MAVs for long-distance
traffic, higher elasticity values for these have been considered as compared to 2-axle trucks. Considering the ongoing
technical advancements in automobile industry, some of the standard two axle trucks would gradually be replaced
by three axle truck and MAVs, leading to reduction in number of trucks. This shift has already been observed in
various parts of the country.
Transport demand elasticity by vehicle type, over a period of time, tends to decline and approach unity or even less.
As the economy and its various sectors grow, every region tends to become self-sufficient. Moreover, much of the
past growth has been associated with the country’s transition from a largely rural subsistence economy to cash-
based urban economy, dominated by regional and national linkages. As the transition proceeds, its impact on
transport pattern can be expected to become less dominant. Therefore, the demand for different type of vehicles
falls over time, despite greater economic development. In other words the values of elasticity tend to decrease with
economic development in future years due to changes in the structure of economy, with higher contribution from
service sector and higher value of industrial outputs. The same is also clear from the relationships of the economy
and transport demand elasticity over time, both nationally and internationally. The elasticity values have therefore
been moderated for the future years as given in Table below.
Table 6-32: Projected transport demand elasticity values (Most Likely)
Vehicle Type Indicator upto 2020 2020-25 2025-30 > 2030
MP
Car PCI 0.91 0.91 0.87 0.87
Bus NSDP 0.82 0.78 0.70 0.70
LCV NSDP 0.65 0.62 0.56 0.56
2 AT NSDP 0.65 0.62 0.56 0.56
3AT NSDP 0.69 0.65 0.59 0.59
MAV NSDP 0.69 0.65 0.59 0.59
MH
Car PCI 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3
Bus NSDP 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
LCV NSDP 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
2 AT NSDP 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
3AT NSDP 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
MAV NSDP 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
CH
Car PCI 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Bus NSDP 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1

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Vehicle Type Indicator upto 2020 2020-25 2025-30 > 2030

LCV NSDP 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
2 AT NSDP 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
3AT NSDP 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
MAV NSDP 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2
Car PCI 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Bus NSDP 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Based on the population projection, and past growth in PCI, NSDP & NNP the growth rate adopted for above
mentioned indications is presented in Table 6-84.
Table 6-33: Adopted Growth rate of Indicators
Year up to 2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 >2030
MP
NSDP 7.8 7.5 7.3 6.9
PCI 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.9
Population 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0
MH
NSDP 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.8
PCI 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0
Population 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
CH
NSDP 7.9 7.6 7.3 6.9
PCI 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.0
Population 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8
The traffic demand estimates for the three scenarios mentioned above namely most likely, optimistic and pessimistic
scenario follows as:
The growth rate has been adopted keeping following points in mind.
As per IRC SP 84:2009 a minimum 5% growth rate has been adopted for all commercial vehicles.
In absence of registration data of other categories 5% growth rate has been adopted.
Table 6-34: Growth Rate Adopted (Most Likely Scenario)
Year 2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor + Trailor NMV
2017-20 7.92 5.00 5.9 6.5 5.8 6.5 1.0
2021-25 7.32 5.00 5.8 5.9 5.3 5.9 1.0
2026-30 6.72 5.00 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 1.0
2031-35 6.12 5.00 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.0
>2035 5.00 5.00 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.0
Table 6-35: Growth Rate Adopted (Optimistic Scenario)
Year 2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor + Trailor NMV
2017-20 7.92 5.00 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.0 1.0
2021-25 7.32 5.00 6.2 6.4 7.0 6.4 1.0
2026-30 6.72 5.00 5.4 5.6 6.0 5.6 1.0
2031-35 6.12 5.00 5.2 5.3 5.7 5.3 1.0
>2035 5.00 5.00 5.2 5.3 5.7 5.3 1.0

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Table 6-36: Growth Rate Adopted (Pessimistic Scenario)

Year 2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor + Trailor NMV
2017-20 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2021-25 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2026-30 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2031-35 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
>2035 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
6.7.8. Diversion Analysis
Regional level network has been studied in detail to assess the alternative routes that can be used by the traffic to
avoid one or more toll plazas. There is no altenative route to avoid the toll plaza on project road, so no diverted
traffic.
6.7.9. Development Traffic
As per site visit and local enquiry it comes to our knowledge there are no industrial and residential development are
coming in the future, which generate the traffic.
6.7.10. Forecast of Traffic
The mode wise projected traffic for all scenarios for each VC location as discussed above is in Table 6-88 to Table
6-90 under the following heads.
6.7.11. Traffic Projections for Most Likely Scenario
Table 6-37: Traffic Projections (Most Likely Scenario)
Km 19 Km 72 Km 121 Km 21
Year
Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs
2017 6093 6111 2852 2393 1115 1070 1260 1216
2020 7460 7361 3517 2907 1371 1292 1533 1455
2025 10245 9850 4881 3941 1896 1737 2091 1933
2030 13718 12827 6609 5209 2555 2273 2789 2509
2035 18021 16481 8758 6777 3372 2933 3654 3215
2040 23703 21210 11617 8831 4457 3792 4800 4133
2045 31215 27337 15426 11524 5898 4911 6319 5326
2049 38939 33526 19367 14274 7386 6047 7884 6536
6.7.12. Traffic Projections for Optimistic Scenario
Table 6-38: Traffic Projections (Optimistic Scenario)
Km 19 Km 72 Km 121 Km 21
Year
Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs
2017 6093 6111 2852 2393 1115 1070 1260 1216
2020 7538 7489 3537 2941 1383 1315 1546 1478
2025 10498 10279 4945 4056 1933 1813 2133 2011
2030 14193 13651 6730 5431 2625 2420 2866 2657
2035 18800 17851 8955 7144 3487 3178 3779 3460
2040 24924 23373 11925 9410 4637 4179 4994 4519
2045 33066 30636 15891 12406 6171 5502 6612 5914
2049 41477 38070 20004 15487 7761 6862 8285 7345

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6.7.13. Traffic Projections for Pessimistic Scenario

Table 6-39: Traffic Projections (Pessimistic Scenario)
Km 19 Km 72 Km 121 Km 21
Year
Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs
2017 6093 6111 2852 2393 1115 1070 1260 1216
2020 7053 7074 3302 2770 1291 1238 1459 1407
2025 9002 9029 4214 3536 1647 1580 1862 1796
2030 11489 11523 5378 4512 2102 2017 2376 2292
2035 14664 14707 6864 5759 2683 2574 3032 2925
2040 18715 18770 8760 7350 3425 3285 3870 3733
2045 23885 23956 11180 9381 4371 4193 4939 4765
2049 29033 29119 13590 11403 5313 5096 6004 5792
6.7.14. Capacity Analysis
Capacity analysis for the project corridor is carried out in order to assess the Level of Service (LOS) offered by road
sections under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions. The traffic projection for the 3 scenarios is presented in
Table 6-91.
Table 6-40: Projected Traffic at all Locations
Most Likely Scenario Optimistic Scenario Pessimistic Scenario
Year Km Km Km Km Km Km Km
Km 19 Km 72 Km 19 Km 72 Km 21
121 21 121 19 72 121 21
2023 5736 5736 1070 1216 5736 5736 1070 1216 5736 5736 1070 1216
2024 6092 6092 1139 1290 6070 6070 1145 1297 6092 6092 1123 1276
2025 6470 6470 1213 1370 6424 6424 1227 1384 6470 6470 1179 1340
2026 6872 6872 1292 1455 6799 6799 1315 1478 6872 6872 1238 1407
2027 7267 7267 1370 1539 7172 7172 1401 1571 7267 7267 1300 1477
2028 7685 7685 1454 1629 7567 7567 1494 1671 7685 7685 1365 1551
2029 8128 8128 1542 1724 7983 7983 1594 1777 8128 8128 1433 1629
2030 8596 8596 1637 1826 8422 8422 1700 1890 8596 8596 1505 1710
2031 9092 9092 1737 1933 8886 8886 1813 2011 9092 9092 1580 1796
2032 9591 9591 1833 2036 9354 9354 1921 2125 9591 9591 1659 1886
2033 10117 10117 1934 2145 9846 9846 2035 2247 10117 10117 1742 1980
2034 10673 10673 2041 2259 10364 10364 2156 2375 10673 10673 1829 2079
2035 11259 11259 2154 2380 10910 10910 2284 2512 11259 11259 1921 2183
2036 11878 11878 2273 2509 11484 11484 2420 2657 11878 11878 2017 2292
2037 12473 12473 2392 2636 12058 12058 2556 2800 12473 12473 2118 2407
2038 13098 13098 2517 2769 12661 12661 2699 2952 13098 13098 2223 2527
2039 13754 13754 2648 2910 13294 13294 2850 3112 13754 13754 2335 2653
2040 14443 14443 2787 3059 13959 13959 3009 3281 14443 14443 2451 2786
2041 15166 15166 2933 3215 14657 14657 3178 3460 15166 15166 2574 2925
2042 15926 15926 3087 3380 15390 15390 3357 3649 15926 15926 2703 3072
2043 16723 16723 3250 3554 16159 16159 3545 3849 16723 16723 2838 3225
2044 17561 17561 3421 3737 16967 16967 3745 4060 17561 17561 2980 3386
2045 18440 18440 3602 3930 17816 17816 3956 4283 18440 18440 3129 3556
2046 19364 19364 3792 4133 18706 18706 4179 4519 19364 19364 3285 3733

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Most Likely Scenario Optimistic Scenario Pessimistic Scenario

Year Km Km Km Km Km Km Km
Km 19 Km 72 Km 19 Km 72 Km 21
121 21 121 19 72 121 21
2047 20334 20334 3993 4347 19642 19642 4415 4768 20334 20334 3449 3920
2048 21352 21352 4204 4573 20624 20624 4665 5031 21352 21352 3622 4116
2049 22421 22421 4428 4811 21655 21655 4928 5309 22421 22421 3803 4322
2050 23544 23544 4663 5062 22738 22738 5207 5603 23544 23544 3993 4538
2051 24723 24723 4911 5326 23875 23875 5502 5914 24723 24723 4193 4765
2052 25962 25962 5173 5605 25068 25068 5814 6243 25962 25962 4402 5003
2053 27262 27262 5449 5899 26322 26322 6144 6590 27262 27262 4622 5253
2054 28627 28627 5740 6209 27638 27638 6493 6957 28627 28627 4853 5516
2055 30061 30061 6047 6536 29020 29020 6862 7345 30061 30061 5096 5792
6.7.15. Design Service Volume
IRC: 64 stipulate that under normal circumstances, use of Level of Services B is considered adequate for the design
of rural highways. At this level, volume of traffic will be around 5 times the maximum capacity and this is taken as
the “design service volume” for the purpose of adopting design values. Accordingly, the Ministry of Road transport
and Highways had decided that planning of upgradation of the existing two lane highways with paved shoulder shall
be started before the end of the design life so that by the time the threshold capacity of the road is reached, the
four lane highway will already be constructed. Hence, the Ministry vide circular no. RW/NH-33044/28/2015/S&R(R)
dated 29th June 2015 had decided the traffic at which the upgradation from two lane with paved shoulder to four
lane will trigger, as indicated in the table below.
Table 6-41: Design Service Volume – IRC
Nature of Terrain Traffic at which upgradation to four lanes will trigger (in PCUs per day)
Plain 15,000
Rolling 11,000
Mountainous/Steep 8,000
In the light of changing socio-economic conditions in the country and in order to ensure safe and comfortable
mobility of road users and reduction in road accidents, the Ministry vide circular no. RW/NH-33044/37/2015/S&R(R)
dated 26th May 2016 revised the traffic at which the upgradation from two lane to four lane will trigger, as indicated
in the table below:
Table 6-42: Design Service Volume – IRC
Nature of Terrain Traffic at which upgradation to four lanes will trigger (in PCUs per day)
Plain 10,000
Rolling 8,500
Mountainous/Steep 6,000
Hence for the project corridor, the capacity augmentation to 2/4 lane configurations is required in which year is
highlighted in the table above.

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6.8. TOLL LANE ESTIMATION

In order to access the number of toll lanes required for toll plaza locations according to IRC: SP: 2009 the peak hour
traffic is to be projected for 20 years. The projected peak hour traffic is presented in the table below for all toll plaza
locations.
Table 6-43: Toll Lane Estimation
Tollable Non Tollable
Year
Toll Plaza at km 21 Toll Plaza at km 21
2020 - 2021 372 879
2021 - 2022 394 941
2022 - 2023 417 1008
2023 - 2024 442 1080
2024 - 2025 466 1152
2025 - 2026 493 1229
2026 - 2027 520 1312
2027 - 2028 549 1401
2028 - 2029 580 1496
2029 - 2030 609 1589
2030 - 2031 640 1689
2031 - 2032 672 1796
2032 - 2033 705 1909
2033 - 2034 741 2030
2034 - 2035 776 2148
2035 - 2036 813 2272
2036 - 2037 853 2405
2037 - 2038 894 2545
2038 - 2039 937 2694
2039 - 2040 982 2852
No. of Toll Lanes required along the project corridor.

Table 6-44: Toll Lanes required along the project corridor

Tollable Non Tollable
Description
Toll Plaza at km 21 Toll Plaza at km 21
Total Tollable Peak Hour Traffic 79 228
Peak Hour Factor 8.8 8.8
79/240 = 0.3 228/1200 = 0.2
Semi Automatic Toll Lanes
Say 1 Lane Say 1 Lane
1+1* 1+1*
Total No. of Lanes in each direction
2 Lanes 2 Lanes
* One extra lane for oversized vehicles.

6.9. REVENUE ESTIMATION

6.9.1. Introduction
The revenue estimation plays an important part in determining the viability of a BOT project. The success of a BOT
project depends on toll revenues covered w.r.t. the project costs (construction, maintenance and administration).
In order to collect revenue along the project corridor the consultants in consultation of NHAI officials and following

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IRC SP: 84:2009 has suggested 3 toll plaza locations. While deciding the toll plaza locations it has been ensured that
it serves the purpose of benefiting both the road users and the concessionaire.
The road user is benefited by save in travel time and appropriate fee for the distance traveled while the
concessionaire is benefited to yield positive returns on the investment & to accommodate all users with minimum
non-compliance and disruptions.
6.9.2. Toll Plaza Locations
The toll plaza locations with their effective lengths keeping in view the nature of traffic, New Toll Policy & IRC SP:
84:2009 is shown in Table 6-45
Table 6-45: Proposed Toll Plaza Locations and their Effective Lengths
S. No. Location for Proposed Toll Plaza Effective Length for Toll Plaza
1 Km 21 42
Note: Effective Toll Length is not defined so total stretch (168kms) divided into 3 equal sections.
6.9.3. Projected Toll able Traffic at Toll Plaza Locations
The Package wise projection of toll able traffic for most likely scenario for all toll plaza locations is shown is Table
6-46
Table 6-46: Projected Toll able Traffic for Toll Plaza at km 21
Mini Mini
Year Cars Taxi Bus LCV 2 Axle 3 Axle MAV Total
Bus LCV
2017 160 19 0 5 27 27 16 27 15 296
2018 169 20 0 5 29 29 17 29 16 314
2019 179 21 0 6 31 31 18 30 17 333
2020 190 23 0 6 33 33 19 32 17 353
2021 201 24 0 6 35 35 20 34 18 373
2022 213 25 0 7 37 37 21 35 19 394
2023 225 27 0 7 39 39 22 37 20 416
2024 238 28 0 7 41 41 23 39 21 438
2025 252 30 0 8 43 43 25 41 22 464
2026 265 31 0 8 46 46 26 43 23 488
2027 279 33 0 8 48 48 27 45 24 512
2028 294 35 0 9 50 50 28 47 24 537
2029 310 37 0 9 53 53 29 50 25 566
2030 326 39 0 10 56 56 31 52 26 596
2031 343 41 0 10 58 58 32 54 27 623
2032 360 43 0 10 61 61 33 56 29 653
2033 379 45 0 11 64 64 35 59 30 687
2034 398 47 0 11 67 67 36 62 31 719
2035 418 50 0 12 71 71 38 64 32 756
2036 440 52 0 12 74 74 40 67 33 792
2037 462 55 0 13 78 78 42 70 34 832
2038 486 58 0 14 82 82 43 73 36 874
2039 510 61 0 14 86 86 45 76 37 915
2040 536 64 0 15 90 90 47 80 38 960
2041 564 67 0 15 94 94 49 83 40 1006
2042 592 70 0 16 99 99 51 87 41 1055
2043 623 74 0 17 104 104 54 91 43 1110

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Mini Mini
Year Cars Taxi Bus LCV 2 Axle 3 Axle MAV Total
Bus LCV
2044 654 78 0 18 109 109 56 95 45 1164
2045 688 82 0 18 114 114 59 99 46 1220
6.9.4. Estimation of Toll Policy
For the purpose of calculation of toll revenue the tollable traffic has been categorized in 4 types as given in new Toll
Policy. These are:
Local Pass (Concessional Pass for non commercial traffic and for Commercial Traffic)
Daily Pass (For Return Trip)
Monthly Pass (Regular Users)
Single Trip
To find out the share of each type, from the total traffic expected to move on the stretch, the consultant has worked
out pass policy for each toll plaza location. The calculation of pass policy is based on certain assumptions made on
the past experience basis and OD survey data of that location.
The assumptions made for goods and passenger vehicles are as follows:
The final pass policy for different toll plaza locations is presented in Table 6-47
Table 6-47: Mode Wise % Share of all tollable categories
Mini
Details Car Bus LCV 2-Axle 3-Axle MAV MAV>6A HCM/EME
Bus
Pass Policy @ Km 21.000
Local Cars (0-10) 0.0%
Local Cars (10-20) 3.8%
Local commercial 7.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Monthly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Daily 96.2% 100.0% 92.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
6.9.5. Toll Rates and Revenue Projections
a) Per km length of road

Table 6-48: Toll Rates w.r.t. per km Road Length

Vehicle Type Car LCV / Minibus Bus / Truck MAV (3Axle – 6 Axle)
Base Rate Per Km Length (1997) 0.40 0.70 1.40 2.25
For the calculation a work schedule program has been assumed based on which Revenue Projections has been done.
Here the Years of Concession period is decided on the basis of capacity assessment. The revenue projections for the
years mentioned based follows as

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Table 6-49: Revenue Projections (Most Likely Scenario)

Mini Total Revenue, Rs. Total Daily Revenue,
Year Car Taxi Bus 4 wheel tempo LCV 2 Axle 3 Axle MAV
Bus M Rs.'000s
Revenue Projections @ km21
2017-18 13,860 1,710 - 1,500 2,430 3,830 4,580 13,230 7,350 9 24
2018-19 14,670 1,800 - 1,600 2,610 4,420 5,200 15,080 8,320 10 27
2019-20 17,200 2,100 - 2,040 3,100 5,030 5,870 16,500 9,350 11 31
2020-21 18,300 2,300 - 2,160 3,300 5,550 6,570 18,560 9,860 12 33
2021-22 21,230 2,640 - 2,280 3,850 6,230 7,320 21,080 11,160 14 38
2022-23 24,600 3,000 - 2,870 4,440 6,980 8,300 22,750 12,350 16 43
2023-24 25,920 3,240 - 3,010 4,680 8,100 9,140 25,530 13,800 17 47
2024-25 29,770 3,640 - 3,220 5,330 8,950 10,230 28,470 15,330 19 52
2025-26 33,880 4,200 - 3,840 6,020 9,810 11,640 31,980 17,160 22 59
2026-27 38,250 4,650 - 4,080 6,900 11,200 12,880 35,690 19,090 24 66
2027-28 42,880 5,280 - 4,400 7,680 12,200 14,440 39,600 21,120 27 74
2028-29 48,110 5,950 - 5,220 8,500 13,660 15,810 43,710 22,320 30 82
2029-30 53,640 6,660 - 5,580 9,540 15,550 17,510 49,500 24,750 33 91
2030-31 59,660 7,410 - 6,600 10,640 17,520 19,960 55,120 27,560 37 102
2031-32 66,000 8,200 - 7,000 11,600 19,050 21,340 60,480 30,240 41 112
2032-33 72,660 9,030 - 7,400 12,810 21,270 23,320 66,640 34,510 45 124
2033-34 83,950 10,350 - 8,690 14,720 24,150 26,470 74,930 38,100 51 141
2034-35 91,920 11,280 - 9,240 16,080 26,640 28,980 83,700 41,850 57 155
2035-36 104,520 13,000 - 10,800 18,460 30,030 32,840 92,160 46,080 64 174
2036-37 114,210 14,040 - 11,400 19,980 33,480 36,580 102,510 50,490 70 191
2037-38 128,760 15,950 - 13,260 22,620 37,620 41,300 114,100 55,420 78 215
2038-39 144,770 17,980 - 15,120 25,420 41,940 44,820 127,020 62,640 88 240
2039-40 161,700 20,130 - 16,240 28,380 47,010 50,460 141,360 68,820 98 267

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ANNEXURES

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Appendix-A: CVC Data km19

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Appendix-A : CVC Data km70

Appendix-A : CVC Data km121

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Appendix-A : CVC Data km21

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Appendix-B: TMC 000.000 Hiwarkhedi

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Appendix-B: TMC 21.000 Bhurapati

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Appendix-B: TMC 95.450 Auliya

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Appendix-B: TMC 108.940 Patasna Bus Stand junction

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e
Appendix-B: TMC 110.700 Savali Phata Junction

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 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-B: TMC 39

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 5 7

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-B: TMC 40

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 5 8

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-B: TMC 000.700

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 5 9

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-B: TMC 000.000 Khandwa

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 0

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C : OD Data km19

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 1

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C: OD Data km19

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 2

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C: OD Data km72

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 3

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C : OD Data km72

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 4

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C : OD Data km121

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 5

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C : OD Data km121

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 6

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C : OD Data km21

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 7

 Draft Detailed Project Report
Consultancy Services for Preparation of Detailed Project Report for Development of Economic Corridors,
Inter Corridors, Feeder Routes and Coastal Roads to improve efficiency of Freight Movement in India
(Lot1/Madhya Pradesh/Package-1) Betul-Khandwa NH -347 (Basinda –Roshni & Ashapur -Rudhy)

Appendix-C : OD Data km21

CANADA | INDIA | AFRICA | MIDDLE EAST Pag e | 6- 6 8