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Sixty Trends in
Sixty Minutes

➤
Sam Hill
A BRANDWEEK BOOK

John Wiley
& Sons, Inc.
9385_Hill_fm_e.qxd 7/9/02 4:20 PM Page vi
9385_Hill_fm_e.qxd 7/9/02 4:20 PM Page i

Sixty Trends in
Sixty Minutes

➤
9385_Hill_fm_e.qxd 7/9/02 4:20 PM Page ii
9385_Hill_fm_e.qxd 7/24/02 3:32 PM Page iii

Sixty Trends in
Sixty Minutes

➤
Sam Hill
A BRANDWEEK BOOK

John Wiley
& Sons, Inc.
9385_Hill_fm_e.qxd 7/9/02 4:20 PM Page iv

To my brother, Michael, and the memories

of my sister, Marian, and mother, Martha

Copyright © 2002 by Sam Hill. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval

system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as
permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright
Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or
authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the
Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923,
(978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4744. Requests to the Publisher for
permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012,
(212) 850-6011, fax (212) 850-6008, E-Mail: [email protected]

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative

information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the
understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional
services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the
services of a competent professional person should be sought.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content
that appears in print may not be available in electronic books.

ISBN 0-471-22580-0

Printed in the United States of America.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 ➤CONTENTS
➤
Chapter 1 Is Purple the Next Black? 1

Chapter 2 The Trendmeister Hall of Fame 5

Chapter 3 Fads, Fashion, and History 15

Chapter 4 Economic and Geopolitical Trends 23

Chapter 5 Technology Trends 51

Chapter 6 Societal Trends 89

Chapter 7 Consumer Trends 123

Chapter 8 Business Trends 157

Chapter 9 Workplace Trends 193

Chapter 10 Trendblasting 221

Chapter 11 Final Thoughts 229

Acknowledgments 233

Notes 237

Selected Sources 241

Index 275

v
 CHAPTER 1
Is Purple the
Next Black?

➤
I hope to make you think—and then to do something with that
thinking to improve your business or maybe even your life. To do
that, I’m going to introduce you to the art and science of trend
analysis. It’s the same process my team uses with Fortune 500 com-
panies to generate new business ventures, the same one that takes us
to major speaking fora in a dozen countries each year, the same one
that has gotten us published in everything from Harvard Business
Review to the Wall Street Journal to Fortune magazine to the Los
Angeles Times.
Sorry, but I felt I had to sell a little. Here’s why.
You may well be a little cynical about the whole subject of trends.
After all, sometimes it seems like we are all trend experts. We have lit-
tle choice—the daily paper and the evening news are full of them,
adding up to more than 100,000 articles and broadcast pieces each
year. If you assume that adults get a 30-minute dose of trends each
day from the media, that means a 37-year-old MBA has already inad-
vertently spent more time reading and hearing about trends than she
or he spent studying for her or his professional degree. Isn’t that
enough to make her or him (and us) experts?
I don’t think so. There’s a big difference between observation
and understanding. We all observe thousands of trends each year,
but we don’t really invest the time to understand them. However, if
you want to change careers, invest money, start a business, design a

1
SIXTY TRENDS IN SIXTY MINUTES

new product, write ad copy, make an acquisition, or sell off a cor-

porate division based on trends, you need more than casual obser-
vation. You need understanding—real understanding.
Let me illustrate the difference between understanding and ob-
serving with a small, personal example. My niece, Kristine, recently
married. At the wedding, I noticed that every woman of a certain
age seemed to be wearing purple. When I pointed this out to my
wife, she replied, “Oh, sure. That’s the fall trend.” Actually, it’s not.
It is a fashion, which, as I will explain later, is something else
entirely.
Whatever it was, it was in full bloom. Now, the point is that I
hadn’t foreseen that purple would become the next black. (My wife
tells me purple is actually the next brown, and that gray is the next
black.) If I had known about this ahead of time, presumably, I could
have profited from it (e.g., by investing in purple fabric options). But
I didn’t, I just observed it.
More important, even once I spotted this profusion of purple, I
still didn’t really understand it. At least, I didn’t understand it at any
sort of useful level. As a result, I have no idea if it will stick around
for awhile, how big it will be, or who will follow it. I didn’t know
if it is a Louisville or Midwest fashion or some global color wave
fresh from the runways of Paris. I will never know. What I did in
that church was simply observation—trendspotting—which is what
most of us do when we read a trend article in the newspaper. We
glance at it curiously for a moment or two, then we shrug and turn
both the page and our attention to something else.
Trend analysis means something else entirely. It requires system-
atically dismantling a trend to understand what’s behind it, why it
is or isn’t important, how it will manifest itself in the day-to-day
world, and when it will break into the mainstream. That final ele-
ment is what Malcolm Gladwell called the tipping point. (Malcolm’s
book of the same name is one of the two best books ever written on
the subject of trends.) What? Why? How? When? Every one of these
elements is important if you want to do more than just observe.
To drive home the point about the value created by really under-
standing trends, let’s take a stroll through my Trendmeister Hall of
Fame. Please don’t add this museum to your list of places to visit in
Chicago. You’ll be disappointed. It’s not a building at all, but a black

2
 Is Purple the Next Black?

➤
file cabinet in my factory cum office in Skokie. Also, you won’t find
any busts of Faith Popcorn or John Naisbitt or other trend experts,
either. Instead, I devote every square inch of space in the Hall to
those who turned trends into real businesses.
Were it really a physical space, the Hall of Fame would have
two wings. One side of the building would be devoted to serial
trendmeisters, the professionals who have built huge careers off
correctly reading trend after trend after trend, and building busi-
ness after business around them. That list would include people
like Ian Schrager, Madonna, Steve Jobs, Richard Branson, Bill Ziff,
and Jerome Lemelson.
The other wing, however, would be devoted to an even more
intriguing group: one-time trendmeisters. These are more or less
ordinary people who spotted a trend, took the time to really under-
stand it, and then turned that understanding into a fortune. Hanging
on the walls there would be portraits of people like Ed Kaplan of
Zebra Technologies, Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP, Clay Mathile of
Iams, Mike Egan of Alamo Rent a Car, and Howard Schultz of Star-
bucks. Their stories are even more fascinating than those of the pros.
Both groups are worth getting to know a little better.

3
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9385_Hill_02_e.qxd 7/9/02 3:39 PM Page 5

CHAPTER 2
The Trendmeister
Hall of Fame ➤

Of course, you’ve heard of Steve Jobs, Madonna, and Richard Bran-

son. But you may not know who Jerome Lemelson is. Here’s a hint:
Thomas Edison has 562 patents, Jerome Lemelson has 558.

Trendmeister. Jerome Lemelson (1923–1997)

Trend. Numerous, including machine vision and bar-code
scanning
Pivotal moment. 1953, when he received his first patent for
an improved version of the beanie with a propeller on top

Over 750 companies license Lemelson patents, including Alcoa,

IBM, Ford, Cisco, Boeing, and Dow Chemical. So far, license fees have
brought Lemelson, his attorneys, and the Lemelson estate nearly $1.5
billion. If you own a Sony Walkman or a Mattel Hot Wheels, you
have contributed a tiny portion of that amount. Lemelson may well be
the best-paid inventor in history.
Fans call him a modern-day Edison, a da Vinci, a Jules Verne—a
visionary who had a genius for seeing the future direction of tech-
nology. Critics argue that Lemelson wasn’t a real inventor, because he
patented his ideas but never created working models. Both groups
agree, however, on his ability to analyze technological trends, to
“figure out where an industry was headed, and then put a patent
directly in its path.”1 There’s also no doubt that Jerry did this not by

5
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SIXTY TRENDS IN SIXTY MINUTES

happenstance, but by employing a very deliberate and disciplined

approach to analyzing technological trends.
Here’s how he did it. Jerry scoured technical and trade journals
looking for early signs of technological trends. Once he’d worked
out the likely trajectory of the technology, he’d file broad patent
applications on ideas that he thought would one day be invented,
continually updating the applications as technology moved along.
After the technology became commercially available, he’d sue to
enforce his patent rights. Voilà. This simple business model ginned
out so much money that even his lawyer owns his own mountainside
in Aspen.
At the heart of his success is the following process, which he used
to analyze tech trends:

1. He dug in technical journals and obscure publications outside

the mainstream. That’s important. By the time a trend appears
in the Wall Street Journal or the Washington Post, it may well
already be so far along that it’s too late to climb aboard.
2. He read a broad cross section of media, subscribing to more
than 40 technical journals. He concentrated not on the infor-
mation in each article, but instead searched for potential syn-
ergies and cross-connections.
3. He took the time to document in careful detail, after he’d noo-
dled on it for a bit, what he thought the implications would
be. An excellent draftsman, he filled pads with sketches of
inventions of over-the-horizon devices. Then he could track
the trend as it evolved, updating both the trend and his esti-
mate of the time when it might break as the technology came
closer and closer to market.

Obviously, Jerry was a technical whiz. He graduated in the early

1950s from NYU with three engineering degrees. Lots of people
have technical degrees; however, not all of them become billionaires.
The difference was that Jerry had a process that enabled him to
know what was going to happen before it happened.
Let’s continue on our tour of the Hall of Fame. Quickly, we come
to Madonna, Richard Branson, Steve Jobs, and Ian Schrager. They
don’t have 500 patents each, but they are no less impressive.

6
9385_Hill_02_e.qxd 7/9/02 3:39 PM Page 7

The Trendmeister Hall of Fame ➤

Consider Ian Schrager, for instance. Studio 54, the nightclub he

founded, was the intersection of the seminal fashions and cultural
currents that defined the decade of the 1980s. Ian is also the man
who invented the concept of boutique hotels, and who built New
York City’s Hudson, Morgans, Paramount, and the Royalton. Now
the large hotel conglomerates are following his lead: Starwood’s, the
owner of the Westin and Sheraton chains, has a chain of small, bou-
tique hotels under the W brand. But Ian was the one who did it first.
Now he plans to open a chain of lifestyle outlets called Shop.
Will it be a success? Who knows. Occasionally, even these trend-
meisters miss. Branson’s introduction of Virgin Cola into the United
States was a flop. Lemelson lost his first lawsuit (against Kellogg’s
for paper cutout masks). Madonna’s career has stalled once or twice
since that day in 1978 when she gave up dancing and soft-core porn
for rock and roll. (Wait a minute. . . .). But I wouldn’t bet against
any of them. These folks are to trend analysis what Michael Jordan
and Phil Jackson are to basketball championships, and like these
two, they have the rings to prove it.
That’s enough on the professional trendmeisters. As I said, there’s
an even more interesting group over in the other wing: ordinary peo-
ple who became trendmeisters.
It’s lonely work building a business that is based on a trend whose
potential only you can see. Think about it. Your coworkers tell you
that you’re nuts at least once a day. Every Sunday, your mom phones
to ask when you’re going to go out and get a real job to feed her young
grandchildren. Your wife smiles bravely as you wax eloquent on
where the chronosynclastic infundibulum market is headed.2 Trend-
meisters have only their vision to keep them company. These are the
everyday heroes of the revolutions created by trends.

Trendmeister. Ed Kaplan
Location. Vernon Hills, Illinois
Trend. Digitalization
Pivotal moment. 1985

It was in late 1985 that Ed gathered the managers of Data Spe-

cialties, Inc. (DSI) together and announced that he’d just sold their
main line of business and that the company only had enough cash to
meet six more payrolls. In the coming half-year, they’d better find a

7
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SIXTY TRENDS IN SIXTY MINUTES

way to build a new business, or everyone, including Ed, would have

to find a new job.
They found a way. The new company, Zebra Technologies, was
formed in 1986. The initial public offering (IPO) occurred in 1993,
and the company grew like a rocket. It made Fortune magazine’s list
of the best small businesses 6 of the next 7 years. Today its products
are sold in 90 countries and are purchased by 70 percent of Fortune
500 companies. While the old DSI has faded into obscurity, Zebra is
now approaching $500 million in sales. And all of this came about
because Ed understood what the trend to digital really meant.
The story starts at the end of the 1960s, in the very early days
of mass computing. Back then, there were no such things as flop-
pies and CD drives, and instructions to intelligent machines were
transmitted via paper with holes in it. Paper tape was used to con-
trol devices like photocopiers and milling machines. It was in this
environment in 1969 that two ambitious young engineers, named
Ed Kaplan and Gary Cless, left General Telephone and Electronics
(GTE) to form DSI, a company that made equipment to read long
spools of paper tape. Data Specialties, Inc., quickly became a leader
in its little niche. After a little more than a decade, the little com-
pany had 126 employees, a loyal customer base, and a sterling rep-
utation.
Ed was worried, though, even in the early days. He fretted over
computer trade magazines. He anxiously followed the development
of disk drives and digital communication. He haunted trade shows
and kibitzed with customers, finally reaching an uncomfortable con-
clusion: However successful DSI was, paper tape was a dying indus-
try. Ed could see the day coming when those huge, narrow spools of
tissue-thin paper would be replaced by a wire that ran from a com-
puter in the office to the factory floor.
Ed did more than simply worry. He began searching for the prod-
uct to replace paper-tape machines. Every week or so, an eager inven-
tor would show up at DSI headquarters, carrying a box with what he
or she thought could be the next big idea. Sometimes, it could get a
bit silly. One of the would-be inventors brought a prototype built
from an old lawn mower. Neither the lawn mower nor any of the
boxes held the answer that Ed was looking for. He would kindly

8
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The Trendmeister Hall of Fame ➤

show the visitors out and go back to poring over trade industry mag-
azines and technical journals.
By the late 1970s, Ed finally became convinced that he’d found
the next big thing: bar codes. Universal product codes had been
widely introduced in 1973. So far, they were being used mostly on
the back of packages in supermarkets, but Ed could see a day when
bar codes would be everywhere, from inventory control to the fac-
tory floor to the shipping department. Moreover, making bar-code
printers seemed a lot like the paper-tape machine business—manu-
facture of a complex, high-speed mechanical device sold to indus-
trial buyers.
Kaplan’s management team was less convinced. After all, despite
Ed’s worries, DSI had its best years in 1981 and 1982. Ninety per-
cent of the profits came from paper-tape machines, not from the tiny
bar-code printer business that Ed was building. Indeed, no one knew
if reliable bar-code printing in a harsh industrial setting was even
possible. Running a factory is a bit different from a supermarket. In
a factory, the bar code has to be perfect—solid black with crisp
edges—so it can be read correctly the first time, every time. And in
the early 1980s, no one had yet developed a reliable, deployable
technology to produce pure black, the Holy Grail of bar codes. So
DSI’s management viewed bar-code printers as an interesting, but
not very urgent, issue.
That brings us back to the day when Ed announced the sale of
DSI and walked out of the conference room, leaving his disbelieving
managers behind. He’d just sold a successful company in a still suc-
cessful industry, and he invested everything in an industry that didn’t
even really exist. The fact that he sold the business underlines that
others thought the future of paper tape was not as dim as he did. But
he was dead right. His vision created one of the early technology
success stories of the 1990s. For that, and for the style with which he
did it, we hereby elect Ed Kaplan to the Trendmeister Hall of Fame.

Trendmeister. Howard Schultz of Starbucks

Location. Seattle, Washington
Trend. Upscaling of coffee
Pivotal date. 1987

9
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SIXTY TRENDS IN SIXTY MINUTES

Every morning, I raise my latte to Howard Schultz. It’s because

of Howard that hundreds of thousands of Americans can start the
day with a decent cup of coffee. Overpriced? Perhaps. But it’s drink-
able, and drinkable coffee was an endangered species until Howard
came along.
There are two varieties of coffee beans, arabica and robusta. Arab-
ica beans are dense and flavorful. Robusta beans are thin-tasting,
harsh, and contain twice as much caffeine. Arabica grows slowly and
only on cool mountainsides, making it costly to plant and harvest.
Robusta, in contrast, grows quickly in moist lowlands, making it
much cheaper to produce and thereby giving it its name. While many
things determine the taste of the coffee we drink, the largest single fac-
tor is the ratio of arabica beans to robusta beans in the mixture. At
Starbucks and Caribou, among others, the coffee is 100 percent ara-
bica; however, cheap instant blends can contain no arabica at all.
From 1912 until 1956, most coffee in America was arabica. As a
result, Americans drank some of the best coffee in the world. But in
1956, General Foods decided to stretch profits a bit by introducing a
smidgen of cheap robusta into its market-leading Maxwell House
brand. Other coffees soon followed suit, and by the 1960s, a smidgen
had become a dollop; in the 1970s, when a huge frost hit the Brazil-
ian arabica crop, widespread robusta substitution became common-
place.
In 1961, only a few years after General Foods’ experiment, per
capita coffee consumption in the United States peaked. Then, as more
and more robusta made its way into American coffee cups, consump-
tion declined for the next 2-plus decades. Americans turned to tea,
carbonated soft drinks, beer—to anything to avoid drinking the thin
cardboard soup that had come to pass for coffee.
Of course, not everyone gave up. Dutch immigrant Alfred Peet
opened Peet’s Coffee and Tea on Vine Street in Berkeley in 1966 and
imported his own arabica beans, which he roasted in small batches
in a roaster he’d brought in from Europe. In April 1971, three of
Peet’s loyal mail-order customers, Jerry Baldwin, Gordon Bowker,
and Zev Siegl, opened another arabica coffee roaster in Seattle. And
in an irony of ironies, General Foods bought the Scandinavian cof-
feemaker Gevalia in 1970 and began offering quality imported cof-
fee by mail in the United States. However, these holdouts were like

10
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The Trendmeister Hall of Fame ➤

tiny fingers, unable to stem the flood of robusta that was pouring
through the dike.
Howard Schultz did not start the trend to upscale coffee. In 1971,
when Jerry, Gordon, and Zev were deciding on Starbucks as a name
for their new business, Howard was graduating from Carnarsie High
School in Brooklyn, more worried about finding a college football
scholarship than good coffee. He didn’t discover Starbucks until 10
years later, after he’d graduated from college, spent 4 years in the
Xerox sales program, and moved on to become vice president of the
U.S. division of the Swedish company Hammarplast. Hammarplast
makes, among other things, high-end extruded plastic cones used to
hold drip-coffee filters. Howard’s role in the coffee saga began in
1981, when curious as to why a tiny Seattle store bought more of
these cones than a giant like Macy’s, he climbed on a plane and flew
to Seattle to visit Starbucks.
Howard fell in love with the high-end coffee business instantly,
but the business didn’t exactly fall in love with him. The Starbucks
team was pretty happy with things as they were, and were nervous
that adding a high-voltage New Yorker like Howard would upset the
laid-back West Coast karma of the small coffee store chain. It took
master salesman Howard a year to finagle an offer to join them.
When the offer finally came, Howard left a promising career in
New York for a job that didn’t yet exist at a Seattle coffee company
with five stores. It looked like insanity to his friends and par-
ents, but Howard saw before anyone else—even the founders of
Starbucks—the full potential of the nascent trend to upscale cof-
fees. It was a bold move. Howard did not come from a wealthy
family. He’d grown up in the Brooklyn projects and was the first
member of his family to get a college degree. The salary he walked
away from, $75,000, was good by any standards in 1981, but it
was a princely sum to Howard. But he knew, he just knew, that the
first company to provide Americans with good coffee would take
the market by storm.
Of course, his recognition that Jerry and Gordon were onto
something is impressive, but riding someone else’s trend is not
enough to get you into the Trendmeister Hall of Fame. (There’s only
so much space in the file cabinet. We have to be exclusive.) Had
Howard stopped there, he might well now be a wealthy, but

11
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SIXTY TRENDS IN SIXTY MINUTES

obscure, businessman in the Pacific Northwest. But he didn’t. What

comes next is what gets him his place in the Hall.
In the spring of 1983, while walking down a street in Milan,
Howard idly started counting espresso bars. He was stunned by the
number he found. Once he started looking, he began noticing them
everywhere—on every corner, tucked in every hotel lobby, down
every side street. Not just that, but everywhere there was a coffee bar
there were happy people, laughing and drinking espresso. Howard
had an epiphany: Coffee is more than a drink, it is a social experi-
ence, and just as there is fine coffee, there is a fine coffee experience.
If Americans can fall in love with fine coffee, then the next trend must
be fine coffee bars.
At the time, there was one espresso bar for every 2,000 adults in
Milan. That translated into 100,000 coffee bars in the United States.
Coffee roasting may be a good business Howard reasoned, but cof-
fee bars could be an entirely new industry. Back in the States, he
tested the first coffee bar in the back of a Starbucks store in 1984. A
throng of customers made it an immediate success, and that should
have been the start of the Starbucks we know.
The problem was the owners of Starbucks were unsettled by the
success of the coffee bar experiment. They saw themselves as coffee
roasters. Coffee bars seemed like a distraction, a different business,
and not one in which they were particularly interested. By this time,
they’d come to love Howard, accent and all. They even almost
believed his argument that the way upscale coffee would make it to
the American masses was through coffee bars. But they didn’t buy
into the trend the way he did.
So in early 1986, Howard left Starbucks to start a line of coffee
bars. He left not only with their good wishes but $150,000 in seed
money from the debt-laden company. His wife, who’d just had their
first child, went back to work to support them, and Howard worked
night and day designing and building the first Il Giornale coffee bar.
What we know today as Starbucks is really the evolution of Il Gior-
nale. Only a year later, Howard had the unexpected opportunity to
buy the original Starbucks, which he combined with his three-bar Il
Giornale business. The rest, as they say, is history.
Howard, for first recognizing the importance of the upscaling
trend and the opportunity it provided to decommoditize coffee, for

12
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