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Resources, Conservation & Recycling

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resconrec

Full length article

Environmental and economic assessment of CO2-based value chains for a

circular carbon use in consumer products
Simon Kaiser a, *, Stefan Gold b, Stefan Bringezu a
a
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshoeher Allee 47, Kassel, 34117, Germany
b
Institute of Management and Business Studies, University of Kassel, Kleine Rosenstrasse 3, Kassel, 34117, Germany

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The currently fossil-based production and highly linear use of polymer products generates significant amounts of
CO2-utilization CO2 emissions and irretrievably wastes resources. To address these challenges, effective and competitive
Carbon recycling technologies are required to enhance the circularity of carbon use. In this study economic and environmental
Circular economy
effects of the use of CO2 as carbon source for polymer products such as packaging, construction material or
Value Chain Analysis
medical products are analyzed. Thereby, the whole value chain, from the CO2 source to the market-ready product
is considered. Material flow cost accounting is combined with environmental indicators to assess 28 possible
CO2-based value chains. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to compare the alternatives and to identify the
most eco-efficient examples considering production costs, CO2-emissions, energy demand and fossil carbon use.
In all cases, a significant reduction of CO2-emissions is achieved compared to the conventional alternative. For
subsequently produced consumer products with a high value, the additional costs for CO2-based value chains are
between 0.7 – 4% in the status quo and 0.1 – 1% in a future scenario which enables a market entrance for
CO2-based products with comparably small price premiums. Considering the studied assessment indicators, the
use of CO2 can already lead to the same or a similar overall performance compared to fossil-based production.
The choice of the right product and value chain set up is decisive, with economies of scale playing a significant
role. The results further show that costs and benefits are currently imbalanced along the value chain, wherefore
an effective cooperation is key to achieve market readiness.

1. Introduction (Kaiser and Bringezu 2020). On a global scale, this leads to a direct
emission volume of 0.7 Gt CO2-eq. per year (IEA 2021), for the pro­
The amount and the way how fossil hydrocarbons are consumed in duction processes alone. Beside these direct energy and process related
the global economy raise multiple problems. Most importantly, the emissions during the production of chemicals and polymers, about the
largest share of global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions origins from same amount of emissions takes place in the end-of-life (EoL) phase of
burning fossil fuels, which in turn is the reason for human-made climate material carbon (Schmidt et al., 2021). For example, in the German
change (IPCC 2014). In addition, the mainly linear use of fossil resources chemical industry, 56 out of 112 Mt CO2-eq. per year are emissions
leads to their irretrievable depletion (IRP, 2019). Most recently, supply which originate from waste management of polymer materials based on
bottlenecks caused by disrupted supply chains due to global or regional carbon from fossil sources (Geres et al., 2019; UBA 2018). While alter­
crises led to significant price peaks for oil-based products and clearly native technologies for the provision of energy enable the substitu
showed the economic risks of supply shortages (S&P-Global, 2021). tion of hydrocarbons and therefore also the avoidance of the related
Thus, new options of hydrocarbon production and use must be devel­ CO2-emissions (Bazzanella and Ausfelder, 2017), the EoL emissions
oped which avoid CO2-emissions, enable a circular use of resources, and which originate from the material use of fossil carbon are harder to
therefore contribute to a circular economy. abate. Here, the carbon cannot be substituted but must be won from
For the chemical industry in general and specifically to produce different sources.
organic chemicals, this requires a decoupling of the current material and One promising option are Carbon Dioxide Capture and Utilization
energy supply which both use fossil hydrocarbons as the main input (CCU) technologies, i.e., the CO2-based production of chemicals. CO2 is

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Kaiser).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106422
Received 23 November 2021; Received in revised form 2 May 2022; Accepted 21 May 2022
S. Kaiser et al.

used as a carbon source in combination with water and electricity which minimum number of alternatives is required, and the comparability of
enables a fossil-free production for a broad range of organic chemicals the compared objects must be thoroughly examined and assured with
(Mikkelsen et al., 2010). The required CO2 can be sourced from different the help of suitable criteria. In addition, the DEA results do not show a
point sources as well as the atmosphere (Von der Assen et al. 2016). clear priority sequence (Kerpen 2016; Liang et al., 2017). Practical ex­
According to Kaiser and Bringezu (2020) and Müller et al. (2020) the use amples for the application of DEA are the comparison of manufacturing
of only unavoidable and long-term available point-sources such as sectors (Egilmez et al., 2013), supply chain management strategies
cement or biogas upgrading plants alone could suffice the carbon de­ (Gold et al., 2017) or the eco-efficiency of industrial parks (Hu et al.,
mand of the chemical industry in the future. In addition, the technical 2019; Wang et al., 2021). In the context of CCU technologies, the
feasibility to produce a major share of the currently produced base method has been used to compare solvents for CO2-capture (Limleam­
chemicals on the basis of CO2 has been demonstrated while the under­ thong et al., 2016) but it has not yet been applied to calculate
lying technologies provide a high technological readiness level (Geres eco-efficiencies of CO2-based products.
et al., 2019; Bazzanella, 2017). The climate impact of the production of Based on the identified research gaps, this article addresses the
chemicals and polymers could be significantly reduced, if the required questions of how CO2-based polymer production can be characterized as
electricity is won from renewable sources (Hoppe et al., 2017; Sternberg a circular economy business model (CEBM) and what the economic and
et al., 2017; Ravikumar et al., 2021). Thus, a broad defossilization of the environmental characteristics of a complete CO2-based value chain for
global chemical industry via CCU technologies would significantly consumer products could be. Thereby, it combines the analysis of several
reduce CO2 emissions but require large amounts of renewable electricity case examples for CO2-based value chains for status quo conditions and a
(Kätelhön et al., 2019). future scenario with a DEA to identify promising constellations for a
Another challenge for the production of CO2-based chemicals is the market introduction.
economic viability. Recent studies showed that for the production of
base chemicals, e.g., methanol, competitiveness is not achieved at the 2. Methods and data
moment but could be realized in the near future (Hank et al., 2018;
Hoppe et al., 2018). The main cost driver are the costs for hydrogen via To answer the research question, representative case examples for
electrolysis and thus the costs for electricity and electrolyzer plants possible CO2-based value chains are identified, modelled, and assessed
(Hank et al., 2020). The right location plays a significant role with using suitable indicators. In the following section the applied research
wind-based locations outperforming Photovoltaic-based locations due to methods, models and case examples are described in detail.
higher plant utilization (Kaiser et al., 2021). Furthermore, the respective
rate of capital costs has a significant impact as well, wherefore pro­ 2.1. Case examples
duction locations in northern Europe and South America are most likely
to reach competitiveness in the near future. The focus on merely the To identify representative case examples for consumer products the
production costs of base chemicals, however, leaves out the economic following categories were used: polymer type; polymer content, i.e., the
assessment from a value chain wide perspective as well as the possible mass share of polymer in the consumer product; functional value of the
contribution of CCU technologies to a circular economy. The latter is polymer, i.e., the share of product value which originates from the
created by turning the mainly linear material flows into closed-loop polymer in the product, expressed by the share of polymer production
value chains (Schenkel et al., 2015). This is especially necessary for costs in the total production costs; sector of product application. The
the chemical and polymer sector, where less than 10% of the carbon availability of detailed data for the polymer content of the products, e.g.,
input originates from secondary sources (Kaiser and Bringezu 2020). via product information sheets, was another factor in the selection
The necessary transformation requires the development of new business process. The analyzed case examples (Table 1) stem from six main
models in combination with a reshaping of supply chains and value application sectors for polymers (Lindner and Schmitt, 2018). As poly­
creation (Lüdeke-Freund et al., 2019; Karayılan et al., 2021). The pro­ mer types, three mass polymers (Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP)
duction of CO2-based polymers could depict such a new business model and Polyvinylchloride (PVC)) and one technical polymer (Polyoxy­
which is based on a circular use of carbon. Their use in consumer methylene) (POM) were selected. The polymer content as well as the
products offers a higher value creation than the production of base share of polymer production costs cover a broad range of possible
chemicals since the share of feedstock costs on total costs decreases with combinations. Thereby, the share of polymer costs was calculated for
increasing value creation and thus also the additional costs per product each case example in the following way. First, the polymer content was
(Wilting and Hanemaaijer 2014).
At the moment, CO2-based chemical production shows a trade-off Table 1
between climate mitigation and other environmental impact cate­ Description of the analyzed case examples. (HDPE = High Density Polyethylene,
gories as well as cost efficiency. Hence, multiple assessment indicators LDPE = Low Density Polyethylene, PP = Polypropylene, PVC = Polyvinyl­
are necessary for a thorough assessment. A sound combination of chloride, POM = Polyoxymethylene).
environmental and economic aspects within one analysis, however, can Product Description Application Polymer Polymer Share of
be difficult since the used indicators are not always comparable. To solve Sector Type Content Polymer
this problem and to identify the best overall alternative, suitable (mass%) Costs on
methods for multi criteria analysis are necessary (Zanghelini et al., Total
Production
2018). In recent literature, sophisticated weighting methods were Costs
developed and used to compare CO2-based chemicals, e.g. Chauvy et al.
P1 Bottle for Packaging HDPE 12% 0.6%
(2019) or Pacheco et al. (2021). However, despite their complexity, the
Disinfection
methods still involve a certain level of subjectivity to choose the Gel
respective category weights. To further eliminate subjectivity in the P2 Bubble Warp Packaging LDPE 100% 19%
comparison, the approach of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) can be P3 Marker Body Home PP 18% 0.3%
used. The method was developed by Charnes et al. (1978) and is applied Appliance
P4 Medical Health Care PP 70% 1.4%
to compare environmental with economic assessment indicators (Mar­ Syringe
dani et al., 2018; Zhou et al., 2018; Song et al., 2012) or to calculate P5 Cable Electronics PVC 38% 4%
eco-efficiency values (Thies et al., 2019) without the exogenous deter­ Mantle
mination of weights or priorities. Nevertheless, the application of DEA P6 Pipe Construction PVC 100% 2.9%
P7 Cog Wheel Machinery POM 100% 1%
also shows some drawbacks. For example, to generate valid results a
S. Kaiser et al.

determined with the help of product information sheets and own cal­ the capacity of the environment for its disposal (Dakpo et al., 2016). In
culations. Second, the amount of polymer needed was combined with other words, every ton of emitted CO2 lowers the remaining carbon
production costs for the polymers. Third, the costs for the required budget wherefore it can be seen as a scarce good. The DMUs can be
polymers were compared to the production costs of the consumer regarded as comparable according to Kerpen (2016) and Dyson et al.
product. The value chain for the polymer production was modeled for (2001) since they fulfill the same function, namely to generate revenue,
the fossil-based and four CO2-based alternatives, considering different and thereby use the same resources and similar technologies in the same
CO2-sources (Cement, Waste Incineration, and Biogas Plant, Direct Air time period. The number of 35 DMUs fulfills the criteria for the mini­
Capture (DAC)). The CO2 sources are differentiated because they pro­ mum amount of DMUs necessary to achieve a reasonable level of
vide different CO2 concentrations, specific emission volumes and cap­ discrimination according to Dyson et al. (2001) and Cooper (2007).
ture costs. In total, 28 CO2-based values chains and 7 fossil-based values Constant returns to scale were assumed to show the effect of different
chains were considered for the analysis. specific emission volumes, i.e., production scales, on the performance of
one value chain. In a model with variable returns to scale, differences in
2.2. Material flow cost accounting and data envelopment analysis scale are leveled within the model to exclude them from the efficiency
calculation. Therefore, a scaling effect would not be visible or distorted.
The systemic environmental and economic analysis of a value chain The relative performance of each DMU is shown by the respective effi­
requires the combined modeling of material, energy, and cash flows. ciency score which sets the studied environmental and economic in­
Therefore, a material flow cost accounting (MFCA) analysis was con­ dicators into relation.
ducted in accordance with DIN 14051 (DIN-EN-ISO, 2011) and com­
weighted RevenueProduct i
plemented with environmental assessment indicators. This method has Efficiency scoreProduct i = ∑
weighted InputsProduct i
been demonstrated on organizational and value-chain level, e.g., to
reduce costs related to material losses (Walz and Guenther 2021; Christ Solving the DEA problem identifies those value chains which pro­
and Burritt 2015), or to compare different regional recycling networks duce one unit of revenue with the most efficient use of the available
(Walther 2010). Thus, it is a suitable tool to analyze and compare resources. The efficiency score can further be considered as eco-
CO2-based value chains from an environmental and economic efficiency, if one of the environmental indicators is reduced, e.g., via
perspective. the avoidance of CO2-emissions, compared to the fossil-based processes.
The results of the flow analysis are further used to calculate the The latter represent the prevailing alternatives and serve as a benchmark
assessment indicators. These indicators were chosen with respect to the for the new value chains. They cannot be considered as eco-efficient due
effects of a feedstock change for the chemical production, which is the to the inherent use of fossil resources and the accompanied environ­
main difference between fossil- and CO2-based value chains. For their mental problems. The modeling and solving of the DEA problem was
identification, recent LCA and economic assessment studies were used, done with the open source software OSDEA (Version 0.2) as well as R
e.g., Hoppe et al. (2018) or Kaiser et al. (2021) as well as relevant (Version 4.1.2) using the Benchmark and Frontier Analysis Package from
environmental targets. As main effects of a feedstock change the Bogetoft and Otto, 2020. The formal model can be found in the SI-1.
resulting CO2-emission, the used carbon source, the energy requirement, To classify CO2-based value chains as CEBM and to compare them
and the production costs were identified. In addition, the reduction of with existing regulation schemes, existing classification schemes from
CO2-emissions and primary energy use as well as an increased use of the literature were used. Further information can be found in SI-2 while
secondary carbon are important targets for companies according to the results are presented in Section 3 of this article.
actual policies (European Commission 2021). Therefore, the polymer
related CO2-emissions, the production costs, the fossil carbon input, i.e., the 2.3. System description
amount of carbon which is won from fossil sources, and the cumulative
energy demand were chosen as assessment indicators and calculated for To analyze and compare the value chains, an MFCA was conducted
each case example and value chain option. for each alternative. All necessary production processes, i.e., the CO2
For a further comparison of the results, DEA was applied. Thereby, capture and electrolysis (for CO2-based alternatives) or naphtha pro­
each value chain was considered as a so-called Decision-Making Unit duction (fossil-based alternatives), the production of chemicals, mono­
(DMU). The comparison is enabled by calculating and comparing the mers, polymers, and the consumer products are regarded as system
performance of all DMUs within an empirically determined technology elements, as well as the product specific sales market and the EoL phase.
area (Dyson et al., 2001). The technology area defines the technical Even though the last two elements do not belong to the value chain, they
capabilities of the DMUs in their entirety, while the performance of a are important to calculate the input of the operative cash flow in form of
single DMU shows how it utilizes these capabilities. To measure the market revenues and to achieve an equal carbon balance by also
performance of each DMU, a set of optimal weights for each input and considering EoL emissions (Fig. 1). The functional unit is defined as one
output is determined. The weights are calculated endogenously by produced unit of a consumer product. The carbon, energy, and cash
formulating and solving an optimization problem which considers all flows of the system are used to calculate the assessment indicators per
DMUs. To identify the most efficient DMUs, an efficiency score is functional unit. Due to overall promising location factors, such as the
calculated for every DMU using the specific set of optimal weights. As availability of CO2 sources, chemical and polymer industries as well as
boundary condition, the maximum efficiency score is 1, i.e., 100%. If markets for the consumer products, the analysis focuses on value chains
one DMU shows an efficiency score of 1, it can be considered as rela­ located in Germany. As background data, e.g., for the provision of en­
tively efficient compared to the other DMUs and thereby lies on the ergy from the grid or fossil feedstock prices, actual data for Germany was
efficiency frontier. Vice versa, if one DMU shows a score below 1 despite considered. Detailed process data for the fore- and background can be
the use of an optimal weighting set, this means that there is at least one found in SI-3.
other DMU which is more efficient. The study focuses on the effect of CO2-utilization as carbon source for
As DEA model, an input oriented CCR (Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes) polymer production. Therefore, the production of further ingredients or
model was chosen for the analysis. The described assessment indicators components of the products were not included, since they are not
are considered as input variables and combined with the revenue per altered, and their modeling is not necessary to measure the effects of
consumer product as output variable. These variables represent the main different polymer production technologies. The necessary production of
factors to describe the regarded transformation process for each value H2 is assumed as a stand-alone process for which the use of electricity
chain. CO2-emissions are counted as an input even though they are a from renewable sources is crucial to reach an overall favorable ecolog­
physical output since they represent an undesirable output which uses ical performance for CO2-based polymer production (Hoppe et al., 2017;
S. Kaiser et al.

Fig. 1. System elements, flows and boundary for the material flow cost-accounting (CS = Carbon Source, ES = Energy Source, C = Chemical Production, P = Polymer
Production, M = Product Manufacturing, WM = Waste Management).

Sternberg et al., 2017). Thus, energy provision via wind electricity was The CO2-emissions caused by the carbon and energy flows into and
assumed. The wind electricity could be provided via the grid in com­ within the system are classified for each system element (Table 2). To
bination with purchase power agreements or via additionally con­ compare the potential environmental benefits with the potentially
structed capacity. Both strategies are currently pursued by companies in higher production costs, CO2-abatement costs as well as carbon circu­
Germany to get exclusive access to renewable electricity (Axpo 2022; lation costs are calculated. The former is defined as the additional costs
BASF 2021). Because there is a lack of transport infrastructure for CO2, per avoided t of CO2 emissions and focusses on the costs for emission
H2, and some of the monomers, it was assumed that gaseous products are avoidance. The latter expresses the additional costs required to recycle
further processed onsite. Thereby, the necessary processes (CO2-capture, one ton of carbon, i.e., to substitute one ton of fossil carbon as primary
methanol, and monomer synthesis) need to be integrated in already material. Both indicators give information about the cost effectiveness of
existing plants, wherefore the required process energy is provided by the a CO2-based value chain with respect to the environmental benefits and
grid. For the produced CO2-based methanol and polymers, a transport to enable a comparison to other technologies aiming at emission abate­
further processing plants via road is assumed. Thus, the specific emission ment or carbon recycling. The calculation formulars can be found in SI-
volume of the considered CO2-source determines the throughput of the 3.
value chain. As EoL process, waste incineration was considered. To explicitly show the structure of the cash flows on the value chain-
The production costs for CO2-based value chains were calculated level, one exemplary value chain with a production capacity for
using data from the recent literature for the plant costs and scales for CO2-based methanol production of 100 kt/a was considered. This ca­
every production step. The production costs for the fossil-based chem­ pacity is derived from the largest existing CO2-based methanol pro­
icals, polymers and consumer products were approximated using duction plant (CRI 2020). Based on the emission volumes considered in
average net market prices. It was assumed, that the net market prices this study, the respective CO2-demand of 147 kt per year could be
include a margin of 10%, which was subtracted out to calculate the supplied by a cement or waste incineration plant. A cement plant was
difference in production costs for polymer production (see SI-3 for chosen as CO2-source because it offers lower capture costs. This supply
detailed cost data). The cost differences between fossil and CO2-based volume of CO2 would enable the production of 38 (PE and PP), 65 (POM)
alternatives for the consumer products were calculated by comparing or 71 kt (PVC) CO2-based polymer per year. This corresponds to 2% (PE
the production costs for the respective monomers (ethylene, formalde­ and PP), 5% (PVC) or 22% (POM) of the domestic production volume in
hyde, and propylene). It was further assumed that the CO2-based 2020 and 23% (PE) 31% (PVC), 67% (PP) or 149% (POM) of the average
monomers are used as a drop-in and that the cost difference would be yearly production volume for a respective polymer producer in Germany
passed through the value chain to the consumer product. (Destatis 2020).

Table 2 2.4. Scenario analysis

Description of the different emission scopes used to classify the CO2 emissions of
each system element. The classification is based on WRI and WBCSD (2011), To factor in future developments, the different value chains were
WRI, and WBCSD (2015). analyzed for the status quo as well as for the years 2030 and 2050 with
Emission Description Application in this study the help of a scenario analysis. The input parameters with a relatively
scope high influence on the results were identified via a sensitivity analysis
Scope 1 Emissions from sources that are Direct emissions which are and altered according to a possible development described in the liter­
owned or controlled by a caused by a system element. ature. The described development path represents a progressive devel­
company.
opment and illustrates how the performance of CO2-based value chains
Scope 2 Emissions from the generation of Emissions which are caused by
purchased or acquired the energy supplier for one could develop in a best-case scenario for cost parameters and the energy
electricity, steam, or heating. system element. grids in Germany (Table 3). For the latter, climate neutrality is assumed
Scope 3 All other indirect emissions that Emissions from other system for 2050. Currently, CCU technologies for chemical production are not
occur in the value chain. elements in the value chain creditable in emission trading schemes. In the scenario, it was assumed
(except the energy supplier)
that the captured CO2 is credited in the emission trading scheme by
S. Kaiser et al.

Table 3
Assumed development for the scenario parameters. For the electricity grid, climate neutrality was assumed in 2050 (FLH = Full load hours, GWI = Global Warming
Impact).
Parameter 2020 2030 2050 Sources/Assumptions

GWI Electricity [kg CO2-eq./MJ] 0.1 0.01 0 (UBA 2016; Prognos et al. 2021)
GWI Heat [kg CO2-eq./MJ] 0.06 0.004 (Use of heat 0 (Use of heat (BAFA 2020) Coefficient for Heat Pumps: 3 (2030), 5 (2050) according to European
pumps) pumps) Copper Institute (2018)
Electricity Costs (Grid Mix) [€/MJ] 0.05 0.05 0.05 (DENA 2018)
Electricity Costs (Wind Electricity) 0.023 0.022 0.018 (Fraunhofer ISE 2021) Including transmission costs based on (DENA 2018)
[€/MJ]
Heat Costs [€/MJ] 0.012 0.011 0.01 Own calculation based on prices for fossil-feedstock or electricity
Polymer Costs [yearly change] – +1% (I) − 0.3% (D) +1% (I) − 0.3% (D) Calculation based on an increasing (I) and decreasing (D) oil price scenario from (IEA
2020b). Based on market data for monomers and polymers it was estimated that an
average of 30% of the oil price deviation are passed on to polymer prices.
System EfficiencyElectrolyzer 67% 69% 74% (Merten et al., 2020)
Electrolyzer Capex [M€/MW] 1.4 0.7 0.3
Stack Lifetime [FLH] 60,000 78,000 105,000 (NOW, 2018)
Runtime [FLH/a] 3,000 5,000 8,000 The expansion of renewable energies in the grid allows a decoupling of the electrolyzer
from site specific production curves and thereby increases the yearly runtime.
H2-demand MeOH Synthesis [kg 0.198 0.195 0.188 Gradual decline to the theoretical minimum in 2050.
H2/kg MeOH]
MeOH-demand MTO [kg H2/kg 2.57 2.48 2.28 Gradual decline to the theoretical minimum in 2050.
MeOH]
CO2-Certificates [€/t CO2] – 85 255 2030: (Ewa Krukowska, 2021)
2050: Linear, yearly increase based on the assumed development between 2020 and 2030.

2030. The saved certificate costs for the otherwise emitted CO2 emis­ the atmosphere via waste incineration, wherefore CO2-based polymers
sions are not accredited to the CO2-emitter but the base chemical pro­ must not be considered as carbon sinks in general, the system wide
ducer who delivers the service of using the CO2. At the same time, emissions are significantly reduced due to the substitution of fossil
emission costs are added to every downstream process with CO2-emis­ feedstock by captured CO2. In both cases, the majority of polymer
sions (including EoL) to guarantee that every emission is accounted for. related emissions is caused in the EoL stage , but the total amount de­
Due to the mentioned uncertainties for the oil price development, the pends on the used carbon source. Hence, for producers of polymers and
scenario was further differentiated between increasing (I) and polymer products the cause and the release of the largest share of CO2-
decreasing (D) oil prices. The effect of oil price fluctuations on polymer emissions related to their products lie in the up (cause) and downstream
costs was estimated based on historical market data (2010 – 2020) for (release) processes and therefore out of their organizational boundaries.
crude oil and the polymer types regarded in this article .For the plant In contrast to the CO2-emissions, the CO2-based value chains require
costs of CO2 capture, a reduction of 30% until 2030 was considered a higher cumulative energy demand than the fossil-based alternatives
according to (IEA 2020a). (Table 4). Instead of extracting energy-rich molecules from geological
reservoirs by using fossil fuels, the energy must now be provided by
3. Results renewable sources and transformed via multiple processes, which
involve energy losses (Fig. 3). For example, a third of the required en­
3.1. CO2 emissions and energy requirement ergy is lost in the electrolyzing step alone. For products made of POM,
the additional energy demand is significantly lower, because of the
The system wide CO2 emissions can be significantly reduced for comparably high energy intensity of the fossil-based feedstock produc­
every product (Fig. 2). The absolute emission volume as well as the tion, i.e., methanol based on natural gas. It is noteworthy, that the CO2-
relative reduction mainly depends on the chosen CO2-source. For biogas source has a significant impact on the cumulative energy demand due to
upgrading, cement and waste incineration plants a significant reduction the different CO2-concentrations in the input gas. Using DAC as carbon
can be achieved, while the use of DAC would lead to only minor re­ source, the additional energy requirement is more than two times higher
ductions in the status quo. The highest reduction can be achieved using than using a biogas upgrading plant. The results for the process specific
plants for biogas upgrading, due to the high CO2-content in the feed gas. emissions and energy requirements can be found in the SI-4.
The used polymer type and the respective production process are deci­
sive for the reduction potential as well. For PE and PP, a reduction of
73% is possible, while the maximum values for PVC and POM are 61% 3.2. Economics
and 56% . To produce POM, the impact of the CO2-source is lower than
for the other polymers, due to the more energy intensive polymerization While the single system elements of the examined CO2-based value
step which leads to a higher impact of energy related emissions chains follow a linear business model, the value chain as a whole can be
compared to the other polymers. Furthermore, the CO2-based methanol regarded as a Circular Economy Business Modell (CEBM) which fits to
is used as a drop-in, while for the other polymer types, the required the pattern of a recycling business model according to Lüdeke-Freund
ethylene or propylene is provided by an exothermal process substituting et al. (2019). Compared to a fossil-based value chain, emission volumes
the endothermal and energy intensive steam-cracking process of and primary material use are reduced with the help of closed material
naphtha which is used for the fossil-based production. loops. The provision of secondary carbon and the reduction of CO2-e­
The CO2 balances of the value chains show in more detail, how the missions depict valuable services, which are generated in addition to the
resulting emission reductions for CO2-based processes are achieved mere provision of a product. Instead of the production of oil, the value
(Fig. 3). Within the first two production steps, i.e., the provision of creation process starts with capturing CO2 which will otherwise be
feedstock, the overall emissions savings of the value chain are caused via (point sources) or was already (DAC) emitted into the atmosphere.
capturing and using CO2 in form of negative emissions. For the following Therefore, carbon is recycled while fossil resources are kept in the
production steps, the CO2-balances are similar to the fossil-based pro­ ground. The additional value can be captured by achieving a price
duction. Even though the captured CO2 is ultimately released back into premium, i.e., a higher sales price than the fossil-based alternative, at
the consumer market or by recognizing the provided services, e.g., in
S. Kaiser et al.

Fig. 2. A) Comparison of the system wide polymer related CO2 emissions for a value chain using a cement plant as CO2 source with a fossil-based value chain. The
differences between the CO2-sources are displayed with ranges. B) Relative Emission reduction potential compared to the fossil-based alternative. The character­
ization of the different products (P1-P7) can be found in Table 1.

Fig. 3. A) Process specific CO2 balances for a CO2-based value chain. B) Comparison of cumulated CO2-emissions of a fossil and CO2-based value chain. Cumulative
Energy Demand (CED) for C) a CO2-based and D) a fossil-based value chain. The value chains for Product 1 are used as example. For the CO2-based value chain a
cement plant was assumed as CO2-source. (CC = Carbon Capture, E = Electrolysis, FP = Feedstock Production, MP = Monomer Production, PP = Polymer Production,
PM = Product Manufacturing, EoL = End-of-life, WI = Waste Incineration).
S. Kaiser et al.

Table 4
Increase in Cumulative Energy Demand for the CO2-based alternatives, compared to the fossil-based production. The description of the different products can be found
in Table 1. (DAC = Direct Air Capture).
CO2-Source CO2 concentration in feed gas P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7

Cement 20% 141% 134% 137% 141% 227% 99% 31%

Waste Incineration 10% 155% 148% 151% 155% 249% 110% 36%
Biogas 45% 112% 107% 109% 112% 183% 79% 21%
DAC 0.04% 281% 268% 274% 281% 443% 198% 81%

emission pricing schemes or input quotas. Thereby, the creation of the on the pursued environmental goal. In case of CO2-emissions reduction
additional value is proposed at the start of the value chain by costs, products such as POM-based P7 might be chosen, while for carbon
substituting fossil carbon sources, while the value capture takes place at recycling products like PE-based P1 and P2 would be the more cost-
its end. At the same time, the current regulation falls short to efficient alternatives.
acknowledge the functions of CO2-based value chains. Therefore, the The analysis of the cash flows for the exemplary value chain shows
realization of a price premium is currently the only way to capture the the cost structure and sets the additional costs in relation to the potential
additional value. market revenue (Fig. 4). On the one hand, the results show the necessary
For all case examples, the production costs are higher than for those investment requirements between 40 (CO2 capture) and 359 M€ (H2-
processes using fossil-based polymers. At the same time, the relative production), 504 M€ in total, for processes at the start of the value chain.
increases differ significantly (Fig. 4) with the choice of the product being In addition, operational expenditures from 9 (CO2 capture) to 110 M€
more relevant for the price premium than the choice of the CO2-source. (H2-production) would arise per year. Within the production of CO2-
For products with a comparably low functional value of the contained based chemicals, the H2-production requires the highest share of in­
polymer (P1, P3, P4, P7) the mean cost increase lies between 0.7% – 4% vestment (64%) and operational expenditures (58%). On the other hand,
using a cement plant as CO2 source. For products with high functional the provision of the CO2-based feedstock does not require additional
value of the polymer (P2, P5, P6) the mean cost increase lies between 6% investment for the polymer producer and the product manufacturer.
to 47% (Fig. 4). If higher or lower production costs are assumed for the Nevertheless, it would lead to additional operational expenditures, i.e.,
conventional products, the relative increases differ accordingly without material costs between 119 (POM) and 136 M€ (PP) per year to enable a
changing the main aspects of the results. In general, those value chains cost-covering production for the feedstock suppliers, compared to the
using a cement plant as CO2-source show the lowest production costs for use of fossil-based feedstock. Depending on the produced polymer type
each product due to economies of scale, i.e., higher yearly emission and the respective product these additional costs are faced with possible
volumes. The cost increase is 4% (Waste Incineration), 24% (Biogas) or revenues between 0.3 and 17 billion € per year. The assumed production
65% (DAC) higher for each product for the other CO2-sources. The re­ volumes of polymers would possibly saturate the polymer demand if
sults for process specific costs can be found in the SI-4. only one single product is assumed. For example, 3 billion plastic bottles
The CO2-abatement costs range from 761 to 1049 €/tCO2-avoided in the or 11 billion medical syringes could be produced which corresponds to
status quo. The differences can be explained by the CO2-source and the roughly 39% or 480% of their current domestic market volume (Destatis
polymer type. Because only polymer related emissions are considered in 2020). Thus, the use of a single CO2-source would suffice to provide
this study, the product specific CO2-abatement costs do not differ be­ enough secondary material for consumer products on several different
tween products if the same polymer type is used. As for the production markets.
costs, value chains using a cement plant as CO2-source show the lowest The results of the CO2-balances in combination with the economic
CO2-abatement costs. They offer the best ratio between additional costs analysis further reveal an imbalance between benefits and costs of a
and the avoided emissions due to the higher scale of the value chain in CO2-based value chain. The benefits, such as the reduction and the use of
combination with the second lowest CO2 capture costs. Even though a secondary carbon and the liquidation of a possible price premium are
higher emission reduction and lower CO2-capture costs can be achieved located at the end of the value chain. At the same time the significant
using a biogas plant, the comparably small scale of the value chain investment requirement in combination with higher production costs
causes higher production costs which result in higher abatement costs. than for fossil-based base chemicals illustrate the risks of sunk costs and
However, using a biogas plant shows better results than a waste incin­ potential losses at the start. Thus, a successful introduction of a CO2-
eration plant, despite the higher scale of the latter. For the polymer based polymer products requires value chain wide cooperation to bal­
types, POM shows the best relation between CO2-based and fossil-based ance the risks and benefits.
production costs of 1.6, compared to 3.3 (PE), 3.5 (PP) and 2.8 (PVC). The results of the scenario analysis further show that the future
This partly compensates the higher emission reductions of PE and PP development of factors which indirectly influence the investment costs,
and leads to a different ranking for the minimum abatement costs than in such as the plant lifetime also have a decisive impact on the performance
case of the possible emission reduction: 761 (P7, POM), 1017 (P1 and of the considered value chains. The declining capex for electrolyzer in
P2, PE), 1034 (P5 and P6, PVC), 1049 €/tCO2-avoided (P3 and P4, PP). combination with increasing plant lifetimes and process efficiencies for
Therefore, the throughput of the value chain, the possible emission the H2, methanol and monomer production cause a significant decrease
reduction and the different production costs for polymers play the most in production costs for CO2-based polymers while the electricity costs
important role to determine the abatement costs for a CO2-based value hardly change. The oil price development amplifies (increasing price (I))
chain. or counteracts (decreasing price (D)) this trend. An average decrease of
The results for carbon circulation costs show a slightly different the cost difference for the consumer products by 42% (D) to 49% (I) in
picture. Beside the production costs, the efficiency of carbon use i.e., the 2030 and 81 (D) to 85% (I) in 2050 would be achieved. Nevertheless, the
carbon losses due to process inefficiencies, has an important impact. The production costs remain higher for CO2-based value chains in all cases
polymer production processes show carbon losses of 12% (PE and PP), since the necessary break-even costs for H2 between 1.4 – 1.6 (2030) and
21% (PVC) and 30% (POM). Therefore, products 1 and 2 show the 2.8 – 3.2 €/kgH2 (2050) are not reached. Moreover, the inclusion of CO2-
lowest circulation costs of 3836, compared to 3958 (P3 and P4), 4384 based polymer production into emission trading schemes would not
(P7) and 4693 €/tcarbon circulated (P5 and P6). In consequence, different suffice to enable competitive production costs under status quo condi­
products must be considered as the most cost-efficient case, depending tions or in 2030, independent from the oil price development (Fig. 4). To
S. Kaiser et al.

Fig. 4. A) Comparison of the relative change of production costs for CO2-based polymer products differentiated by the CO2-source (bars, left y-axis). Comparison of
carbon circulation costs for value chains using a cement plant as CO2-source (right y-axis). B) Exemplary development of CO2-abatement costs for the value chains
with a cement plant as CO2-source which show the highest (P3) and lowest (P7) abatement costs in the Status quo (Sq). For the future scenario, a decreasing (D) and
increasing (I) oil price was assumed. The description of the different products can be found in Table 1. C) Required new investments (capex) for the different steps of
a CO2-based value chain and the value chain as a whole D) Specific Opex for the different steps of CO2-based ethylene production in combination with the range of
the cumulative additional Opex for all regarded CO2-based value chain options (left y-axis), and the possible revenues for the final product producer (right y-axis).
For the CO2-based value chain a cement plant is considered. As production capacity for CO2-based feedstock, 100 kt MeOH per year was assumed. (DAC = Direct
Air Capture).

reach competitiveness based on avoided emissions, certificate prices involve uncertainties. The sensitivity of the economic results towards
greater than 761 (Status quo), 328 (2030) or 57 (2050) €/tCO2-avoided certain parameters shows the possible effect of parameter uncertainty as
would be necessary. Only in the long-term, this could be an effective well as future potentials of process improvements. Here, the electricity
option. Break-even oil prices would lie between 199 (POM) – 610 prices, as well as the efficiencies of the electrolysis and synthesis pro­
€/Barrel (PP) under status quo conditions, 132 (POM) – 343 €/Barrel cesses have a high influence on the cost difference to fossil-based al­
(PP) in 2030 and 82 (POM) – 127 €/Barrel (PP) in 2050. Despite the ternatives, i.e., the competitiveness of CO2-based processes. For
assumed increases in process efficiencies, the CED for CO2-based pro­ example, an increase of the efficiency by 1% could lower the additional
cesses remains higher (at least 28% in 2050) than for the conventional costs for the CO2-based alternatives by 0.7% (electrolyzer) or 1.2%
production, so that CO2-based value chains will remain more energy (MTO synthesis). At the same time, an increase in electricity costs by the
intensive in the future. same ratio would raise the cost difference by 0.6%. A corresponding
It must be noted that the values used in this study were derived from change in plant costs for the electrolyzer, which is the biggest invest­
the literature and not specifically gathered as primary data. Hence, they ment position within the value chain, would alter the price difference
S. Kaiser et al.

about 0.4%. Moreover, a deviation of the capital costs for new in­ the choice of the CO2-source. At the same time, CO2-based value chains
vestments by 1% would change the cost difference by 1.6%. In addition, using a cement plant as CO2-source show the highest eco-efficiency score
a raise in market prices for fossil feedstocks would also significantly for all products, while using DAC as carbon source represents the most
reduce the cost difference between fossil and CO2-based products, while inefficient alternative in all cases. Therefore, the first choices for a CO2-
the transportation costs and plant costs for CO2 capture play a minor based value chain should be for products with a low share of polymer
role. In case of the CO2 emissions, the carbon intensity of the electricity costs in combination with a cement plant as CO2-source, if the described
supply, i.e., scope 2 emissions, is decisive. If the energy system is solely assessment indicators are used.
based on renewable energy, carbon neutrality, i.e., net zero emissions,
can be reached for CO2-based polymers, while the emissions of fossil- 4. Discussion
based polymers would only slightly decrease. The use of the current
grid mix instead of wind electricity for the electrolysis step, however, This article extends previous studies on the environmental and eco­
would increase the system wide CO2 emissions in all cases, instead of nomic assessment of CO2-based chemical production by a widened value
decreasing them. chain wide perspective. In total, four different CO2-based value chain
setups based on state-of-the-art technologies were compared to the
fossil-based alternative for seven different polymer containing consumer
3.3. Eco-efficiency products. The value chains were assessed by their economic and envi­
ronmental performance. The results show that CO2-based value chains
The efficiency scores are used to identify those value chains, i.e., offer environmental advantages while requiring additional energy and
DMUs, which use the available ecological and economic resources in the higher production costs. For the future, an increase of the environmental
most efficient way, now and in the future. benefits can be expected in combination with lower production costs
Calculating efficiency scores by the mutual comparison of all DMUs and energy requirements. The results further reveal that the choice of
yields the following results. First, the share of polymer costs has a sig­ the polymer containing product and the CO2-source have a decisive
nificant impact on the eco-efficiency of CO2-based value chains because impact on the ultimate price premium of the product. For certain con­
it determines the resulting cost difference. For products with a low share sumer products, market readiness of a CO2-based production and thus an
of polymer costs, CO2-based alternatives (P1, P3, P4, P7) show high abandonment of fossil carbon could be reached with comparably small
scores for the eco-efficiency of 1 or close to 1. For products with a higher price premiums below 1% of the current net market price.
share of polymer costs (P2, P5, P6), CO2-based production is comparably The results of this study extend the existing research in multiple
inefficient. Thereby, one product made of POM (P7), and one made of PP ways. First, previous assessments of carbon recycling technologies, such
(P3) are the most eco-efficient CO2-based value chains (Fig. 5). Second, as Faraca et al. (2019) or Meys et al. (2020) are complemented with an
future reductions in costs and energy requirements would lead to assessment of CCU technologies as carbon recycling pathway. Second,
increasing eco-efficiency scores for all CO2-based alternatives. However, the cash flows of a CO2-based value chain calculated in this article
products with a higher share of material costs (P2, P5, P6) remain quantify and confirm the qualitative results by Naims (2020). Based on
comparably inefficient. Therefore, certain CO2-based value chains an extensive literature review, the author showed that the creation of a
already represent eco-efficient alternatives to the prevailing fossil-based CO2-based value chain helps CO2-emitters by using the otherwise
alternatives, considering the current state of technology. In the future emitted CO2, offers many investment opportunities for equipment
the existing differences for the other CO2-based value chains are ex­ manufacturers (e.g., manufacturers of electrolyzers), and provides
pected to further decrease. Thereby, increasing oil prices would raise the improved product characteristics to the producers of consumer prod­
eco-efficiency scores of all CO2-based value chains. Moreover, the mean ucts. Building on that, the results of this article enable the organizations
deviation of the eco-efficiency score caused by the CO2-source (10%) is involved in CO2-based value chains to better understand and estimate
lower than the mean deviation caused by the product type (35%). Thus, the possible benefits as well as to calculate the required expenditures.
the choice of the product has a higher impact on the eco-efficiency than

Fig. 5. A) Efficiency scores for CO2-based value chains in the status quo for all case examples (P1 – P7). An efficiency score < 1 means, that there is at least one other
value chain which uses the available resources more efficiently. B) Relation between efficiency score and the share of polymer costs for the status quo and the
scenario, considering a cement plant as CO2-source. (DAC = Direct Air Capture, WI = Waste Incineration; Sq = Status quo; I = increasing Oil prices; D = decreasing
oil prices).
S. Kaiser et al.

Not only for the production of chemicals but also for the finally pro­ an important step to incentivize the use of secondary carbon via
duced consumer products. Third, the impact of the yearly emission CO2-based value chains. In contrast, the inclusion of CO2-based poly­
volume, i.e., the economies of scale, on the total production costs of mers in emission trading schemes would either have a minor effect or
chemicals and consumer products was calculated for the first time; this require much higher certificate prices (> 700 €/tCO2 avoided) than
complements the known positive impact of the CO2-concentration currently the case (50 €/t CO2 avoided) (World-Bank, 2021). Further
within the feed gas on the possible emission reductions (Hoppe et al., measures could also aim at the internalization of environmental costs for
2017; Müller et al., 2020) as well as economic calculations considering fossil fuel use, e.g., through the taxation of fossil fuels used as materials
the transport of CO2 (Zang et al., 2021; Psarras et al., 2017). The current which is already the case for their use as energy carriers.
analysis demonstrates the importance to choose the right product and Based on the results of this study, further research is necessary in
the right CO2-source to improve the environmental and economic per­ several fields. First, a cross comparison with different recycling tech­
formance of the value chain. nologies like mechanical and chemical recycling would help to reveal
If customers are willing to pay comparably small price premiums, the advantages and disadvantages of the respective technologies in an in-
market potential for CO2-based polymer products is large. Compared to depth manner. It should be examined which technology offers the
other sectors where the use of hydrocarbons will most likely continue to lowest CO2-abatement and carbon circulation costs, also considering
play a significant role (e.g., aviation, shipping, or transport on the road) demands on product quality and purity which has been an issue for
the relative price premiums for the use of CO2-based hydrocarbons are mechanical recycling. Second, concrete collaboration strategies and
much higher since the feedstock costs represent a higher share of the further policy measures should be examined in more detail for all
total costs. Previous studies showed that a price premium of 32% for involved industries to level the involved costs and benefits in a fair and
commercial flight tickets (Clean Sky 2020), 95% up to 600% for cargo competitive way. Third, the combination of non-avoidable CO2-sources
costs via shipping (Lindstad et al., 2015; Stolz et al., 2022) or an increase in Germany with imported hydrogen could mitigate the competition for
in the total costs of ownership of 49% for trucks and 165% for passenger the required renewable energy while creating carbon supply security for
cars (Wietschel et al., 2019) would be necessary to enable a the industry. The respective routes for hydrogen supply should be
cost-covering provision of the same product or service without the use of thoroughly assessed.
fossil fuels. The higher value creation of the products analyzed here
offers better options to pass the additional costs for feedstocks into the 5. Conclusions
market without causing significantly increased prices for the product or
services. Thus, the cost structure of certain polymer products offers an CO2-based polymer production can become a viable business model
advantage to the chemical and polymer industry in the case of pur­ for carbon recycling which contributes to the circular economy via
chasing power for CO2-based chemicals. Since lower price premiums for closing technical carbon loops. Through a value chain analysis from the
sustainable products might lead to a higher willingness to buy sustain­ CO2-source until the polymer-based product, promising pathways for
able products, the chances to become a successful business model are the use of CO2 as carbon source were identified. Even with state-of-the-
higher (Eyerund 2015). First collaborations of industrial partners and a art technologies and current regulation schemes, the production of
supermarket chain are starting to explore this potential by producing products with a high value would require price premiums below 1%
CO2-based bottles for cosmetic products (TotalEnergies 2020) or de­ compared to the use of fossil polymers. A multi criteria analysis showed
tergents (MIGROS 2021), which underlines the practical significance of that certain CO2-based products already constitute eco-efficient alter­
this study’s thrust of investigation. In addition, the set-up of regional natives to a fossil-based production. For the future, the additional costs
supply chains using local and unavoidable CO2-sources creates can be expected to decrease in combination with increasing process ef­
supply-security. ficiencies which further improves the overall performance of CO2-based
To further reach competitiveness for CO2-based value chains on a value chains. The investment risks and higher cost at the beginning are
broad scale and therefore transform them into a successful CEBM, several faced with possible benefits at the end of the value chain, wherefore
market entry barriers described by Porter (2014) must be considered. costs and benefits are unevenly distributed. This unveils, that coopera­
Some of them could be overcome easily. For example, because of the tion along the value chain is a key aspect to properly level the costs and
comparably small differences between the production costs, the entry benefits. Within CO2-based value chains, economies of scale tend to play
barriers caused by higher costs are nearly negligible for certain products. an important role, wherefore the choice of the CO2-source has a signif­
Moreover, the supply switching transaction costs, i.e., the costs for poly­ icant impact on the resulting performance. Several options exist to
mer producers to change their feedstock supply, are comparably low as accelerate the market introduction of CO2-based polymer products, e.g.,
well. In contrast to mechanical recycling, virgin material without quality by creating markets for secondary carbon via input quotas. The inclusion
degradation or impurities is provided and the existing transport and dis­ into emission trading schemes, however, would not have a decisive
tribution infrastructure can be used. This makes CO2-based polymers impact.
suitable for application fields with a high demand for product quality and
purity, e.g., in the medical or nutrition sector. Here, a thorough compar­ CRediT authorship contribution statement
ison between CO2-utilization and chemical recycling, which could also
provide feedstock for high quality polymers, is necessary to identify spe­ Simon Kaiser: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology,
cific advantages and disadvantages and derive the most suitable applica­ Formal analysis, Data curation, Validation, Writing – original draft,
tion fields for the different carbon recycling technologies. Project administration. Stefan Gold: Conceptualization, Methodology,
Other market entry barriers are harder to overcome, and adjustments Validation, Writing – review & editing, Supervision. Stefan Bringezu:
of the current policies might be helpful to improve the competitiveness Conceptualization, Validation, Writing – review & editing, Supervision,
of CO2-based value chains. First, the prevailing fossil industry is estab­ Funding acquisition.
lished for decades and provides high efficiencies and economies of scale.
Second, the build-up of a CO2-based value chain requires high invest­ Declaration of Competing Interest
ment volumes and therefore possible sunk costs, i.e., high investment
risks for some of the involved industries (IEA 2018; Gao et al., 2020). The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
Third, the current regulatory policy favors the prevailing fossil pro­ interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
duction technology by not internalizing the environmental costs into the the work reported in this paper.
market. The acceptance of CO2-based polymers in the proposed recy­
clate input quotas (European Commission 2020) for polymers could be
S. Kaiser et al.

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