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This page intentionally left blank
Event History Modeling

Event History Modeling provides an accessible up-to-date guide to event his-

tory analysis for researchers and advanced students in the social sciences. The
substantive focus of many social science research problems leads directly to
the consideration of duration models, and many problems would be better
analyzed by using these longitudinal methods to take into account not only
whether the event happened, but when. The foundational principles of event
history analysis are discussed and ample examples are estimated and inter-
preted using standard statistical packages, such as STATA and S-Plus. Re-
cent and critical innovations in diagnostics are discussed, including testing the
proportional hazards assumption, identifying outliers, and assessing model fit.
The treatment of complicated events includes coverage of unobserved hetero-
geneity, repeated events, and competing risks models. The authors point out
common problems in the analysis of time-to-event data in the social sciences
and make recommendations regarding the implementation of duration model-
ing methods.

Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier is Vernal Riffe Professor of Political Science at

Ohio State University. She was chair of the R.H. Durr Award Committee for
the best paper applying quantitative methods to a substantive issue that was
presented at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science As-
sociation in 2002–3. She is Vice President (2003–5) and a member of the
Executive Committee of the Political Methodology Section of the American
Political Science Association.

Bradford S. Jones is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University

of Arizona. He has served as a Section Officer for the Society for Political
Methodology and as a guest editor for a special issue of Political Analysis on
causal inference. His research on methodology includes work on reliability
analysis, duration modeling, and models for categorical data. Professor Jones
received his Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.
Apart from methodology, Professor Jones’s research interests include racial
and ethnic politics, public opinion, and representation.
Event History Modeling
A Guide for Social Scientists

Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier
Ohio State University

Bradford S. Jones
University of Arizona
cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo

Cambridge University Press

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 2ru, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521837675

© Cambridge University Press 2004

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of

relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place
without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published in print format 2004

isbn-13 978-0-511-19479-5 eBook (EBL)

isbn-10 0-511-19479-x eBook (EBL)

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isbn-10 0-521-54673-7 paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls
for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not
guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
 To Michael, whose “duration” of love and support was unmeasurable, and
to Andrew, Zachary, Nathaniel, and Elizabeth, the most exciting “events” and
true blessings in my life.
—Jan Box-Steffensmeier

To Arlen, for her tremendous love and support, and to Mitchell, Daniel,
and little Jackson, for their love and their ability to help me keep things in
perspective. Also, to Grandpa.
—Brad Jones
Contents

List of Figures page viii

List of Tables ix

Preface xi

1 Event History and Social Science 1

2 The Logic of Event History Analysis 7

3 Parametric Models for Single-Spell Duration Data 21

4 The Cox Proportional Hazards Model 47

5 Models for Discrete Data 69

6 Issues in Model Selection 85

7 Inclusion of Time-Varying Covariates 95

8 Diagnostic Methods for the Event History Model 119

9 Some Modeling Strategies for Unobserved Heterogeneity 141

10 Models for Multiple Events 155

11 The Social Sciences and Event History 183

Appendix: Software for Event History Analysis 199

References 201

Index 213

vii
Figures

3.1 Weibull Hazard Rates by Conflict Type . . . . . . . . . page 30

3.2 Hazard Rates for the Log-Logistic Model . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.3 Hazard Rates for the Log-Normal Model . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

4.1 Estimated Baseline Functions for Cabinet Data . . . . . . . . 66

5.1 Cubic Spline, Lowess, and Log Transformation of Baseline

Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5.2 Baseline Hazard Using Cubic Spline and Lowess . . . . . . . 80

6.1 Estimated Baseline Hazards for Policy Adoption Model . . . . 92

7.1 Illustrating the Risk Profile for Selected Incumbent in Weibull

Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
7.2 Temporal Ordering of TVC and Event Time . . . . . . . . . . 111

8.1 Adequacy of Cox Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

8.2 Assessing Functional Form . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
8.3 Assessing Influence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
8.4 Assessing Poorly Predicted Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
8.5 Plot of Deviance Residuals against Time . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
8.6 Adequacy of Parametric Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

10.1 Baseline Hazard for Conditional Model . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

10.2 Baseline Hazards for Competing Risks Model . . . . . . . . . 172
10.3 Stratified Cox Competing Risks Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

viii
Tables

2.1 Example of Event History Data: Military Interventions . . page 9

2.2 Disputes between Nicaragua and Costa Rica . . . . . . . . . . 11

3.1 Weibull Model of U.N. Peacekeeping Missions . . . . . . . . 28

3.2 Log-Logistic and Log-Normal Models of Primary Exits . . . . 37
3.3 Generalized Gamma Model of Cabinet Durations . . . . . . . 43
3.4 AIC and Log-Likelihoods for Cabinet Models . . . . . . . . . 45

4.1 Cox Model of U.N. Peacekeeping Missions . . . . . . . . . . 49

4.2 Data Sorted by Ordered Failure Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.3 Matched Case-Control Duration Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
4.4 Cox Model of Cabinet Durations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
4.5 Cox and Weibull Estimates of Cabinet Duration . . . . . . . . 61
4.6 Cox and Weibull Estimates of EU Legislation . . . . . . . . . 62
4.7 Cox Estimates of Transition to First Marriage for Males . . . . 63

5.1 Example of Discrete-Time Event History Data . . . . . . . . . 70

5.2 Likelihood Ratios Duration Specification . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5.3 Models of Militarized Interventions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

6.1 Models of Adoption of Restrictive Abortion Legislation . . . . 91

7.1 Example of Counting Process Data with a Yearly TVC . . . . 100

7.2 Example of Counting Process Data with a Yearly TVC and
Discontinuous Risk Intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
7.3 Example of Event History Data Set with TVCs . . . . . . . . 102
7.4 Cox Model of Challenger Deterrence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
7.5 Weibull Model of Challenger Deterrence . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
7.6 Logit Model of House Careers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
7.7 Robust Variance Estimation Using Lin-Wei Estimator . . . . . 116

8.1 Cox and Piecewise Cox Models of Supreme Court Retirement 134
8.2 Stratified Cox Models of Supreme Court Retirement . . . . . . 135
8.3 Nonproportionality Tests of Supreme Court Retirements . . . 136

ix
x Tables

8.4 Nonproportionality Tests for First Transition to Marriage . . . 137

9.1 Frailty Model of Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

9.2 Split Population Model of PAC Contributions . . . . . . . . . 153

10.1 “Time-from-Entry” Model Data Setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

10.2 Conditional Gap Time Model for Repeated Events . . . . . . . 162
10.3 Event Strata for Intervention Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
10.4 Cox Random Effect Models for Repeated Events . . . . . . . 165
10.5 Cox Competing Risks Model of Congressional Careers . . . . 170
10.6 Competing Risks Model of Congressional Career Paths . . . . 174
10.7 Example of Data for a Competing Risks Model . . . . . . . . 176
10.8 Cox Competing Risks Model for Policy Adoption . . . . . . . 177
 Preface

Our work on event history began in graduate school. We met as graduate stu-
dents attending the Political Methodology Society’s annual meeting in 1993
at Florida State University in Tallahassee, Florida. A small group of us at the
meeting were interested in event history modeling and we saw its great poten-
tial for unlocking new answers to old questions and for revealing new questions
in political science. We are indebted to the Political Methodology Group for
bringing us together, providing a forum for us to present subsequent work, and
providing ready and constructive critics and supporters. We are also indebted
to our home departments for surrounding us with highly talented graduate stu-
dents and interesting, stimulating colleagues. Meetings subsequent to our ini-
tial one in 1993, collaborations, and prodding from students and colleagues
across the country who were interested in event history methodology, led to
this manuscript.
This work has several goals. Our first goal in writing this book was to con-
nect the methodology of event history to a core interest that social scientists,
and indeed many scientists in fields as diverse as biostatistics and engineer-
ing, are interested in, namely understanding the causes and consequences of
change over time. Scholars are commonly interested in “events.” For exam-
ple, political scientists who study international relations might investigate the
occurrence of a militarized dispute or criminologists might study instances of
victimization. Events such as these connote change and frequently, this con-
cern with events is concomitantly tied to an interest in the “history” preceding
the event. Understanding an “event history” entails a consideration of not only
whether something happens, but also when something happens. Event history
analysis, which is also referred to as survival, duration, and reliability analy-
sis, is a growing but often underutilized, statistical approach for testing theories
about dynamics in many areas of social science.
A second goal of the book is to present the fundamental steps when es-
timating event history models and to highlight the nuances of social science
data that require special consideration. We challenge scholars to evaluate, jus-
tify, and test whether their modeling assumptions are valid. For example, we
highlight the importance of checking the fundamental proportional hazards as-
sumption and argue for more widespread use of the Cox model, which does not

xi
xii Preface

impose parametric assumptions on the data. Social science data also has inher-
ently different characteristics that affect modeling choices. The repeatability of
events in the social sciences is common (in contrast to the biological sciences
where the typical study is of death, which only occurs once). Repeatability
requires critical modeling adjustments to account for potential correlation over
time. Such issues have been overlooked by much of the substantive literature
applying event history models.
A third goal of the book is to provide a presentation that goes beyond in-
troductory material so that scholars could use current statistical research con-
clusions to best answer their substantive questions. Interest in event history
modeling is growing, and thus providing a reference book for social scientists
was a timely and needed objective.
There are many people and institutions to thank for assisting us in this
work. Janet Box-Steffensmeier would like to thank the National Science Foun-
dation for financial support, specifically the Methodology, Measurement, and
Statistics Program in the Division of Social, Behavioral, and Economic Re-
search and Statistics and Probability Program in the Division of Mathematical
Sciences (SES-0083418) as well as Ohio State University for their support of
her sabbatical. Brad Jones would like to thank the National Science Foun-
dation (SES-9708936) for its financial support during the early stages of this
project. We owe a debt to our home departments of the Ohio State University
and the University of Arizona for the rich and intellectually stimulating envi-
ronment in which we are pleased to be working. Parts of this book were com-
pleted while Brad Jones was in the Political Science Department at the State
University of New York at Stony Brook. Brad Jones would like to thank his
colleagues in that department for their tremendous support. We also benefitted
from presenting our work at several workshops and to several political science
departments including the 2001 Speaker Series for The Center for Biostatistics
and The School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology and Biometrics,
Ohio State University; State University of New York at Binghamton; Direc-
tor’s Series Luncheon at the Mershon Center, Ohio State University; Texas
A&M University; University of California, San Diego; and the University of
Kentucky.
We thank numerous colleagues for their comments, discussion, support,
and questions, including Bill Anderson, Chris Anderson, Brandon Bartels,
Larry Baum, Paul Beck, Fred Boehmke, Jon Bond, Jake Bowers, Sarah Brooks,
Tom Brunell, Greg Caldeira, Valeria Sinclair Chapman, Dave Clark, Aage
Clausen, Renato Corbetta, Brian Crisp, Dave Darmofal, Bill Dixon, Stanley
Feldman, Rich Fleisher, Rich Fording, John Freeman, Jeff Gill, Sandy Gordon,
Paul Gronke, Rick Hermann, Tim Hellwig, Craig Jenkins, Jenn Jerit, Gregg
Johnson, David Judkins, Kris Kanthak, April Kelley, John Kessel, Dean Lacy,
Laura Langer, Stan Lemeshow, Miller McPherson, Ken Meier, Bill Mishler,
 Preface xiii

Mel Moeschberger, Will Moore, Barbara Norrander, Mark Peffley, Sal Per-
alta, Dave Peterson, Jon Pevehouse, Dan Powers, Kathy Powers, Peter Rad-
cliffe, Dan Reiter, Rip Ripley, Kira Sanbonmatsu, Mark Schneider, Jeff Segal,
Paul Senese, Renee Smith, Michael Sobel, Jim Stimson, Alex Thompson, Rich
Timpone, Steve Voss, Chen Lung Wang, B. Dan Wood, and Jack Wright. We
apologize if anyone was inadvertently left out as we have had e-mail conver-
sations too numerous to count that inevitably raised the quality of our work as
well. We owe a special and heartfelt thanks to: Scott Bennett, Gina Branton,
Suzanna DeBoef, Charles Franklin, Jeff Gill, Gary Goertz, Jonathan Golub,
Sam Kernell, Katherine Tate, Terry Therneau, Herb Weisberg, Rick Witmer,
and Chris Zorn. We wish to thank our students who took our event history
classes at the University of Arizona, Ohio State University, and the ITV Pro-
gram, which includes students from the University of Illinois, University of
Minnesota, and the University of Wisconsin at Madison. Students who worked
with us as teaching or research assistants over the course of the project also
have our gratitude: Andy Farrell, Tobin Grant, Scott Meinke, Kevin Scott,
Kevin Sweeney, and Andy Tomlinson. We sincerely thank the series editors,
Mike Alvarez and Neal Beck, for their comments, support, and tremendous
assistance throughout the process. We thank Sarah Mann, Andrea Olson, and
Jeremy Shine for their assistance. Finally, at Cambridge University Press, we
thank Malinda Barrett and especially Ed Parsons for their expert guidance.
 C HAPTER 1

Event History and Social Science

Social scientists often examine events, for example, the occurrence of a milita-
rized dispute, unemployment, or adoption. Events like these connote change or
represent a transition from one state to another. Frequently, this concern with
events is tied to an interest in the history preceding the event, for example, the
number of years leading up to a war or the number of months a child is in foster
care before adoption. History, thought of in this way, involves timing, and for
many research questions, the timing of social change is at least as interesting
as understanding the event culminating the history. Such questions naturally
lend themselves to an examination of both the occurrence of an event and the
history leading up to the event’s occurrence.
The issues of timing and change are relevant for social science and bear
on many hypotheses and theories with which social scientists regularly work.
Such hypotheses and theories may have observable implications related to tim-
ing and change. Moreover, methods accounting for timing and change often
naturally follow from hypotheses or theoretical expectations embedded in the
research question. Understanding an “event history” entails a consideration of
not only if something happens, but also when something happens. An event
history is longitudinal and event history analysis typically involves the statisti-
cal examination of longitudinal data collected on a set of observations. While
a wide variety of statistical models may be constructed for event history data,
at the most basic level, all event history models have some common features.
The dependent variable measures the duration of time that units spend in
a state before experiencing some event. Generally, a researcher knows when
the observations enter the process and when the process ends (with the occur-
rence or nonoccurrence of some event). Analysts are frequently interested in
the relationship between the length of the observed duration and independent
variables, or covariates, of theoretical interest. A statistical model may then
be constructed linking the dependent variable to the covariates. Inferences can
be made regarding the influence of the covariates on the length of the duration
and the occurrence (or nonoccurrence) of some event. In the remainder of this

1
2 Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists

chapter, we point out why event history models are suitable to a wide range of
issues dealt with by social scientists.

The Substantive Motivation for Event History Analysis

Many of the problems, hypotheses, and theories underlying social science re-
search have, at their core, an implicit or explicit interest in the notions of timing
and change. Even if a researcher does not explicitly think in terms of “dura-
tion,” that is, how long something persists before it changes, many interesting
problems in the social sciences have observable implications that are longi-
tudinal. By thinking of problems in terms of the longitudinal implications
embedded in them, a potentially richer understanding of the social process un-
derlying the problems can be achieved. We point out how some of the common
themes and concerns in social science analysis are directly relevant to an event
history model.

An Implicit Interest in “Survival”

Event history models are often referred to as survival models. Indeed, the class
of models discussed in this book have a wide variety of names: duration mod-
els, survival models, failure-time models, reliability models, and so forth. The
nomenclature arises from the different kinds of applications for which these
models have been employed. For example, in engineering research, indus-
trial reliability testing has led to the consideration of duration models, as these
models naturally address questions of interest: How long does a mechanical
component work (or “survive”) until it fails? Similarly, many of the kinds of
questions asked in social science are implicitly related to a conception of sur-
vival: Why do political parties maintain control or fail to maintain control of a
legislature? How do politicians keep their seats over time, even when political
conditions are unfavorable to them? How does the number of children affect
the duration of marriage? Why do military conflicts persist or fail to persist?
Why does the “peace” between one set of countries last longer than the peace
between another set? Why are some families seemingly stuck in poverty?
Each of these questions beckons the notion of survival. Political parties or
politicians, in order to maintain control of a legislature or of a seat, must sur-
vive over a series of elections. The length of a military conflict, or conversely,
the duration of peace between countries invokes the idea of survival. Disputes
can “survive”; peace can persist. Most of the important theoretical issues so-
cial scientists grapple with have implications regarding survival. For example,
one facet of democratic theory suggests that a functioning and healthy democ-
racy should permit some semblance of citizen control over its elected officials.
If politicians are habitually dependent upon voter support, political “survival”
may be a natural implication of such fundamental concepts as representation
 Event History and Social Science 3

and citizen control. Theorists studying patterns of democratization in develop-

ing countries may treat as an implication of democratic stability, the duration
with which regimes persist. Theorists of political institutions may be interested
in the relationship between institutional design and rules and the duration of
time that politicians survive or stay within the institution. Criminologists study
the effectiveness of alternative rehabilitation programs on whether and when
someone returns to prison. Health economists study the duration of hospital-
ization. Examples abound; the point is, the concept of survival is pervasive
in social science. Event history analysis, or survival analysis, is explicitly
premised on the notion of survival.

An Implicit Interest in Risk

Just as many social science theories have implications relevant for survival,
the concept of “risk” is equally prevalent and important in social science re-
search. It is difficult to consider survival without also explicitly considering
risk: given that a political party has maintained control of the legislature for
three elections, what is the risk the party will fall subsequently? The notion
of risk in political science, or in any scientific field for that matter, implies a
conditional relationship with survival. As something persists—as it survives—
what is the risk it will subsequently end? Usually, political science questions
pertaining to survival and risk are asked in more complicated ways: given a
change in electoral rules, what is the risk that a party which has held control
of the legislature for three elections will fall in the subsequent election? This
question, which invokes the notions of survival and risk, ties these concepts
to some tangibly interesting factor: an observable change to the rules govern-
ing elections. The kinds of questions that relate survival and risk to important
theoretical factors are replete in social science. We demonstrate throughout
this book how this notion of risk is directly incorporated into an event history
model.

Event History Analysis Is Comparative Analysis

Social science research often strives or purports to be comparative. Indeed, at
some basic level, just about every empirical question asked in social science is
comparative in nature: given variation across some theoretical attribute, how
do cases vary on values of the dependent variable? This question is rudimen-
tary, but comparative. Likewise, event history models are explicitly compar-
ative statistical models. Unlike traditional time-series models, where a single
entity is typically examined over time, event history data contains information
on many observations (i.e. individuals, politicians, wars, conflicts, convicts,
parties, patients, countries, and so on) over time. Inferences from event history
models can be very powerful. Not only can some claims be made regarding
4 Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists

survival and risk, but also, explicit comparative inferences can be made regard-
ing differences across the cases.
For example, in studying the duration of time coalitional governments sur-
vive (King, Alt, Burns and Laver 1990; Warwick 1992; Diermeier and Steven-
son 1999), event history methods permit researchers to make claims not just
about the factors that precipitate the risk a government will fall (or “stop sur-
viving”), but also, how differences across political systems are related to this
risk. The inference is comparative in nature. Given that event history data are
longitudinal and generated across many observations, comparative inferences
are naturally obtained from any event history model. It is not unreasonable to
claim that all event history models are comparative. Certainly, the analyst may
choose not to think of his or her results in comparative terms, but this kind of
interpretation is forthcoming from an event history model.

Growing Body of Longitudinal Data

Social scientists are amassing an ever-growing body of longitudinal data. In
part, the accrual of this kind of data has simply been a function of consistent
and long-term research programs and data collection efforts. The accumulation
of this kind of data has also stemmed from the recognition among social sci-
entists that much more powerful inferences and theory-testing is possible with
longitudinal data. Concomitantly, in the social science methodology literature,
research on methods for time series, panel data, time-series cross-section de-
signs, event counts, and event history data has flourished in recent decades. An
equally burgeoning literature has emerged regarding the application of these
kinds of models to substantive social science problems.
The fact that a considerable body of longitudinal data exists, or can be
readily constructed from extant data sources, helps to motivate the consider-
ation of event history models. But data availability alone is not sufficient to
motivate the use of a statistical model. Rather, given the readily increasing
availability of longitudinal data, coupled with social scientists’ interest in the
notions of survival and risk, one is directly led to the consideration of event
history models. It is one of the aims of this book to demonstrate that the event
history model is a valuable method for addressing substantive social science
problems. Application of the models herein should be a matter of course when
one has a substantive problem that requires the comparative analysis of lon-
gitudinal data. Since these problems abound in the social sciences, the event
history model is a natural model for analyses.

Conclusion
It is incontrovertible that the substantive focus of many social science research
problems leads directly to the consideration of duration models. This will be
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