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 Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth
in Society
Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society is one of a series of books which
presents the results of the international and multidisciplinary research program
‘GLOBALIFE—Life Courses in the Globalization Process’. The program was based at
the Otto-Friedrich University of Bamberg, and ran from 1999–2005, including experts
from eleven different countries who studied the implications of the globalization process
for individuals in industrialized societies. The research presents a systematic empirical
examination of how global developments impact the life courses of individuals in a range
of modern societies. Unlike much of the literature on globalization the GLOBALIFE
project findings are not limited to the economic dimension but include a multi-causal
intersection of economic, technological, cultural and political changes.
This collection of essays examines how youths in 14 different industrialized societies
make the important transition from youth to adulthood in an era of globalization and
rising uncertainty. It investigates how the institutions that operate on social groups of
youths impact on their ability to make decisions that will determine their life course as an
adult. Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society takes an empirical approach to the
topic, bringing the individual and nation-specific institutions back into the discussion on
globalization.
Hans-Peter Blossfeld is the director of the GLOBALIFE program and is the Professor
and Chair in Comparative Sociology at the Otto-Friedrich University of Bamberg. He has
been Editor of European Sociological Review and is Associate Editor of International
Sociology.
Erik Klijzing is the Executive Director of the International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population in France. He has worked internationally as a population expert
including positions with the United Nations.
Melinda Mills is Assistant Professor in the Department of Socio-Cultural Sciences at
the Vrije University, Amsterdam.
Karin Kurz is Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences at the
Otto-Friedrich University of Bamberg. Her research interests include social inequality,
social stratification, housing, the labor market and the life course.
 Routledge advances in sociology

This series aims to present cutting-edge developments and debates within the field of
sociology. It will provide a broad range of case studies and the latest theoretical
perspectives, while covering a variety of topics, theories and issues from around the
world. It is not confined to any particular school of thought.

1. Virtual Globalization
Virtual Spaces/Tourist Spaces
Edited by David Holmes

2. The Criminal Spectre in Law, Literature and Aesthetics

Peter Hutchings

3. Immigrants and National Identity in Europe

Anna Triandafyllidou

4. Constructing Risk and Safety in Technological Practice

Edited by Jane Summerton and Boel Berner

5. Europeanisation, National Identities and Migration

Changes in boundary constructions between Western and Eastern Europe
Willfried Spohn and Anna Triandafyllidou

6. Language, Identity and Conflict

A comparative study of language in ethnic conflict in Europe and Eurasia
Diarmait Mac Giolla Chríost

7. Immigrant Life in the U.S.

Multi-disciplinary perspectives
Edited by Donna R.Gabaccia and Colin Wayne Leach

8. Rave Culture and Religion

Edited by Graham St. John

9. Creation and Returns of Social Capital

A new research program
Edited by Henk Flap and Beate Völker
 10. Self-Care
Embodiment, personal autonomy and the shaping of health consciousness
Christopher Ziguras

11. Mechanisms of Cooperation

Werner Raub and Jeroen Weesie

12. After the Bell—Educational Success, Public Policy and Family Background
Edited by Dalton Conley and Karen Albright

13. Youth Crime and Youth Culture in the Inner City

Bill Sanders

14. Emotions and Social Movements

Edited by Helena Flam and Debra King

15. Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society

Edited by Hans-Peter Blossfeld, Erik Klijzing, Melinda Mills and Karin Kurz
 Globalization, Uncertainty and
Youth in Society
Edited by Hans-Peter Blossfeld, Erik Klijzing,
Melinda Mills and Karin Kurz

LONDON AND NEW YORK

 Life Courses in the Globalization Process
First published 2005 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX 14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Ave, New York,
NY 10016

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge's collection of
thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.”
© 2005 editorial matter and selection, Hans-Peter Blossfeld, Erik Klijzing,
Melinda Mills and Karin Kurz; individual chapters, the contributors
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or
by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission
in writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from
the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been
requested

ISBN 0-203-00320-9 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 0-415-35730-6 (Print Edition)

 CONTENTS

List of tables ix
List of figures xiv
List of contributors xix
Preface xxvi
Foreword xxviii

PART I Introduction

1 Globalization, uncertainty and the early life course. A theoretical 1

framework
MELINDA MILLS AND HANS-PETER BLOSSFELD
2 Globalization and the early life course. A description of selected 24
economic and demographic trends
ERIK KLIJZING

PART II Country-specific contributions on conservative welfare regimes

3 Case study Germany. Global competition, uncertainty and the 47

transition to adulthood
KARIN KURZ, NIKOLEI STEINHAGE AND KATRIN GOLSCH
4 Transition from youth to adulthood in the Netherlands 80
AART C.LIEFBROER
5 The case of France. Family formation in an uncertain labor market 104
ANNICK KIEFFER, CATHERINE MARRY, MONIQUE MERON AND
ANNE SOLAZ

PART III Country-specific contributions on social-democratic welfare

regimes

6 Elements of uncertainty in life courses. Transitions to adulthood in 135

Sweden
MAGNUS BYGREN, ANN-ZOFIE DUVANDER AND MIA HULTIN
 7 Transitions to adulthood in Norway 158
ØIVIND ANTI NILSEN

PART IV Country-specific contributions on post-socialist welfare regimes

8 The effects of the globalization process on the transition to adulthood 177

in Hungary
PÉTER RÓBERT AND ERZSÉBET BUKODI
9 Transition to adulthood in Estonia. Evidence from the FFS 217
KALEV KATUS, ALLAN PUUR AND LUULE SAKKEUS

PART V Country-specific contributions on liberal welfare regimes

10 The process of globalization and transitions to adulthood in Britain 255

MARCO FRANCESCONI AND KATRIN GOLSCH
11 The transition to adulthood in Canada. The impact of irregular work 285
shifts in a 24-hour economy
MELINDA MILLS
12 The case of American women. Globalization and the transition to 314
adulthood in an individualistic regime
ROSALIND BERKOWITZ KING

PART VI Country-specific contributions on familistic welfare regimes

13 Globalization and the transition to adulthood in Mexico 337

EMILIO A.PARRADO
14 Globalization and the transition to adulthood in Italy 359
FABRIZIO BERNARDI AND TIZIANA NAZIO
15 The Spanish case. The effects of the globalization process on the 385
transition to adulthood
CARLES SIMÓ NOGUERA, TERESA CASTRO MARTÍN AND
ASUNCIÓN SORO BONMATÍ
16 Ireland and economic globalization. The experiences of a small open 415
economy
RICHARD LAYTE, PHILIP J.O’CONNELL, TONY FAHEY AND
SELINA MCCOY

PART VII Conclusions and discussion

17 Becoming an adult in uncertain times: a 14-country comparison of the 438

losers of globalization
MELINDA MILLS, HANS-PETER BLOSSFELD AND ERIK KLIJZING
Subject index 460
Author index 465
 TABLES

3.1 Positions of economic and temporal insecurity

3.2 Unemployment trends in West and East Germany

3.3 Type of contract at labor market entry (logistic regression models)

and the transition to unemployment after the first employment
(piecewise exponential transition rate models), Germany

3.4 Piecewise exponential model of the transition to first marriage and

first birth (after having entered first employment), women,
Germany

3.5 Piecewise exponential model of the transition to first marriage and

first birth (after having entered first employment), men, Germany

4.1 Long-term trends in the timing and outcomes of the transition into
adulthood in The Netherlands

4.2 Positions in the educational and occupational domain at ages 20

and 25 of women and men born between 1961 and 1969 in The
Netherlands (in percentages of total)

4.3 Transition rate models for entry into first union (both general and
as a competing risk) and entry into first parenthood among women
and men born between 1961 and 1969 in The Netherlands

5.1 Gender- and cohort-specific changes in educational attainment in

France (in percent)

5.2 Age- and gender-specific changes in part-time work in France

5.3 Probability of first union formation in France (survey “Jeunes et

Carrières” 1997)—Cox model on the duration between the end of
training and the first partnership (global population)
5.4 Probability of first union formation in France among people born
after 1968—Cox model on the duration between the end of
training and the first partnership (population less than thirty in
1997)

5.5 Probability of first union formation in France among people born

between 1952 and 1967—Cox model on the duration between the
end of training and the first partnership (population more than
thirty in 1997)

5.6 Semi-parametric analysis of the duration between the start of the

union and the first child according to situations experienced since
the start of the union (France, 1952–1966 cohorts)

5.7 Semi-parametric analysis of the duration between the start of the

union and the first child according to situations experienced since
the start of the union (France, 1968–1973 cohorts)

6.1 Piecewise constant exponential hazard rate estimates for

transitions to first job matching highest education attained in
Sweden (episodes pertaining to women and men aged 15–35
separately)

6.2 Piecewise constant exponential hazard rate estimates for

transitions to first cohabitation in Sweden (episodes pertaining to
women and men aged 15–45 separately)

6.3 Piecewise constant exponential hazard rate estimates for

transitions to parenthood in Sweden (episodes pertaining to
women and men aged 15–45 separately)

7.1 Duration of time since age 18 until first birth in Norway (hazard
ratios)

8.1.1 Probability of entry into the labor market within a ten-year period
after completing daytime education, Hungarian men

8.1.2 Probability of entry into the labor market within a ten-year period
after completing daytime education, Hungarian women
8.2.1 Probability of entry into the labor market within a ten-year period:
effects on selected entry classes, Hungarian men

8.2.2 Probability of entry into the labor market within a ten-year period:
effects on selected entry classes, Hungarian women

8.3 Probability of entry into fixed-term employment, Hungarian men

and women

8.4 Hazard of entry into first partnership up to the age of 29,

Hungarian men and women born in 1971–80

8.5 The effect of educational accumulation and earnings on the hazard

of entry into first partnership according to age groups, Hungarian
men and women born in 1971–80

8.6 The outcomes of cohabitation: the hazard of marriage and

dissolution up to the age of 29 among Hungarian men and women
born in 1971–80

8.7 Hazard of the entry into parenthood up to the age of 29, Hungarian
men and women born in 1971–80

9.1 Number of observations, Estonian FFS, female survey

9.2 Transition rate model of entry into the labor force, Estonian
women (relative risks)

9.3 Transition rate model of entry into first partnership, Estonian

women (relative risks)

9.4 Logistic regression model of the type of first partnership, Estonian

women (relative risks)

9.5 Transition rate model of entry into parenthood, Estonian women

(relative risks)

10.1 Type of contract at labor market entry and gender in Britain

10.2 Type of contract at labor market entry and working hours in

 Britain

10.3 Type of contract at labor market entry and occupation in Britain

10.4 Entry into unemployment in Britain—logit regressions

10.5 Entry into cohabitation in Britain—logit regressions

10.6 The transition from cohabitation to marriage in Britain—logit

regressions

10.7 Entry into parenthood in Britain—logit regressions

11.1 Work shift measures

11.2 Logistic regression of type of work shift, first job and voluntary
nature of irregular shift, youth, ages 16–35, by student status:
Canada, 1993–1998

11.3 Logistic regression of entry into first partnership and parenthood,

youth, ages 16–35, by sex: Canada, 1993–1998, (final model only)

12.1 Sample characteristics (percents), American women

12.2 Odds ratios for total effects on the transition to adult roles,
American women

13.1 Changes in life course transitions across cohorts in Mexico

13.2 Estimates from discrete-time models predicting labor market entry

in Mexico

13.3 Estimates from discrete-time multinomial logit model predicting

first occupation in Mexico (reference: not working)

13.4 Estimates from discrete-time models predicting family transitions

in Mexico

14.1 Variables used to operationalize economic and temporal

(employment) insecurity in Italy
14.2 Early careers, marriage and first child for different cohorts of entry
in the Italian labor market: summary prospect

14.3 Transition from insecure to permanent contract (Models 1 and 2)

and from employment to unemployment (Models 3 and 4) in Italy

14.4 Transition to first marriage in Italy

14.5 Transition to first child in Italy

15.1 Piecewise constant exponential models: main steps of the

transition to adulthood in Spain

16.1 Numbers at work, unemployed, labor force and net migration,

Ireland, 1987–1999

16.2 Part-time and temporary work as a share of total employment,

Ireland, 1983–1997

16.3 Proportion gaining a temporary first contract by year and social

class, Ireland, 1987–1993

16.4 Logit model of whether to receive a temporary contract in first job

after leaving education in Ireland

16.5 Piecewise constant hazard rate model of moving from a temporary

or no contract to a permanent employment contract in Ireland

16.6 Piecewise constant hazard rate model of experiencing a spell of

unemployment after gaining a first job in Ireland

17.1 Summary of main results: Rising uncertainty in the labor market

and impact on partnership and parenthood behavior
 FIGURES

1 Globalization and increasing uncertainty in the transition to

adulthood

2.1a Tertiarization of the labor market: percent of employed men

working in the service sector, 1950–2000, by country according to
welfare regime

2.1b Tertiarization of the labor market: percent of employed women

working in the service sector, 1950–2000, by country according to
welfare regime

2.2 Female labor force participation (part-time plus full-time) among

women, 24–54 years old, 1980–2000, by country according to
welfare regime

2.3 Educational expansion: percent of women with medium or higher

level qualifications, 1950–2000, by country according to welfare
regime

2.4 Rates of youth unemployment among the 15–24 years old, 1980–
2000, by country according to welfare regime

2.5 Fixed-term employment as a percentage of total dependent

employment, 1983–2000, by country according to welfare regime

2.6 Part-time employment among women as a percentage of their total

employment, 1983–2000, by country according to welfare regime

2.7 Pluralization of living arrangements: cumulative percentage up to

age 23 of women who by that time had entered a consensual union
as their first partnership, by birth cohort and country according to
welfare regime

2.8 Pluralization of living arrangements: median ages of women at

 leaving home and first partnering, by birth cohort and country

5.1 Mean age of French mothers at birth of first child, by maj or

diploma

5.2 Unemployment rate of French women aged 15–29, by major

diploma

5.3 Transition to first child for French women aged 31–45; grouped by
birth cohort and qualification (survivor function)

5.4 Transition to first child for French women aged 24–29; grouped by
birth cohort and qualification (survivor function)

5.5 Unemployment experience among French women born in 1952–

1966 with upper-secondary school-leaving certificate

5.6 Unemployment experience among French women born in 1952–

1966 without upper-secondary school-leaving certificate

5.7 Inactivity experience among French women born in 1952–1966

with upper-secondary school-leaving certificate

5.8 Inactivity experience among French women born in 1952–1966

without upper-secondary school-leaving certificate

6.1 Percentages in the labor force of men and women (aged 16–64) in
Sweden, 1963–2000

6.2 Percentages unemployed among men and women (aged 16–64) in

Sweden, 1963–2000

6.3 Total fertility rates in Sweden, 1962–1999

6.4 Percentages of qualified and over-qualified among Swedish

employees, by birth cohort

7.1 Labor force participation rates in Norway, 1980–1995

7.2 Unemployment rates in Norway, 1980–1995 (LFS)

7.3 Total fertility rate in Norway, 1960–1999

7.4 Median age at first birth in Norway, cohorts 1950–1970

7.5 Accumulated birth rates*1000 in Norway, cohorts 1950–1980 (the

last years are extrapolated)

7.6 Median age at first birth, by educational groups in Norway

8.1 Proportion of individuals enrolled in school and not working at

different ages (persons born in 1931–1980)

8.2 Proportion of individuals not enrolled in school and not working at

different ages (persons born in 1931–1980)

8.3 Proportion of individuals not enrolled in school and working at

different ages (persons born in 1931–1980)

8.4 Proportion of individuals enrolled in school and working at

different ages (persons born in 1971–1980)

8.5 Proportion of individuals not enrolled in school and working in

permanent contract job at different ages (persons born in 1971–
1980)

8.6 Proportion of individuals not enrolled in school and working in

fixed-term contract job at different ages (persons born in 1971–
1980)

8.7 Time elapsed between the first exit from day-course education and
the entry into labor force (in years)

8.8.1 The rates of entry into first cohabitation and first marriage, women
born in 1971–1980

8.8.2 The rates of entry into first cohabitation and first marriage, men
born in 1971–1980

8.9.1 Proportion of women who never had a child, according to birth

cohort
8.9.2 Proportion of men who never had a child, according to birth cohort

9.1 School completion among the native- and foreign-origin

populations of Estonia

9.2 Entry into the labor force among the native- and foreign-origin
populations of Estonia

9.3 Entry into first partnership among the native- and foreign-origin
populations of Estonia

9.4 Proportion of first partnerships that started as consensual unions,

native-and foreign-origin populations of Estonia

9.5 Entry into parenthood among the native- and foreign-origin

populations of Estonia

9.6 Median age at the transition to adulthood, native- and foreign-

origin populations of Estonia

11.1 Percent distribution in occupational groups by employment

schedule, age group 15–35, 1993, Canada

12.1 Globalization and the U.S., 1960 to 1995

12.2 Median age at entries into marriage and parenthood in the U.S.,
1950 to 1998

12.3 Percent of American women employed, 1950 to 2000

13.1 Trends in Mexico’s per capita GNP and cohorts in the analysis

15.1 Age- and sex-specific unemployment rates, Spain, 1974–1995

15.2 Product-limit estimation. Males’ and females’ transition to the first

job from 10 years old

15.3 Survivor function for the transition to first partnership in Spain—

Life table estimates of the cumulative proportion of men and
women entering first partnership, by birth cohort
15.4 Proportion of childless men and women in Spain by age and birth
cohort
 CONTRIBUTORS

Fabrizio Bernardi is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology II of the

Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Madrid, Spain. From 1998
to 2001 he worked as Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Bielefeld,
Germany and within the GLOBALIFE project. His main research interests focus on
social inequality, the relationship between labour market and family dynamics but also
on quantitative methods for longitudinal analysis.
Address: Departamento de Sociología II, U.N.E.D.,c/Obispo Trejo s/n, 28040 Madrid,
Spain, [email: [email protected]]
Hans-Peter Blossfeld is a Professor of Sociology at the Department of Social and
Economic Sciences, Bamberg University, Germany. He was Professor of Sociology at
the European University in Florence and the Universities in Bremen and Bielefeld. He
is editor of the European Sociological Review. He is the Director of the GLOBALIFE
project and of the Staatsinstitut für Familienforschung an der Universität Bamberg
(ifb) (Institute for Family Research at Bamberg University). His research interests
include social inequality, youth, family, and educational sociology, labor market
research, demography, social stratification and mobility, cross-national comparative
research, modern methods of quantitative social research and statistical methods for
longitudinal data analysis. He has published 16 books and over 100 articles.
Address: Lehrstuhl für Soziologie I, Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg, Postfach 1549,
D-96045 Bamberg, Germany, [email: [email protected]]
Erzsébet Bukodi is Head of the Section of Social Stratification within the Department of
Social Statistics of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Budapest, Hungary. Her
research interests involve educational inequalities and different aspects of life-course
analysis. She is a participant of a research project aiming to develop a new social
indicator system in Hungary. Recently she published a book (her PhD dissertation) on
marriage timing and educational homogamy of couples. Further publications examine
career differences of married couples and the main features of regional and social
stratification based on the Hungarian Census data.
Address: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Keleti Károly utca 5–7. 1024. Budapest,
Hungary, [email: [email protected]]
Magnus Bygren is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology, Stockholm
University, Sweden. His research interests are in the field of labour sociology,
segregation and reference group theory. He is currently doing research on the causes
of ethnic segregation and sex segregation in Swedish workplaces, and has recently
published studies on how organizational factors affect the demographic composition
of the in- and outflow of employees.
Address: Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden,
[email: [email protected]]
Teresa Castro Martín is a Researcher at the Department of Demography, Institute of
Economics and Geography, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Spain. Her
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