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economics
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005
edited by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides
The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and
European economists to discuss a broad range of current issues in global macroeconom-
ics. An international companion to the more American-focused NBER Macroeconomics
Annual, the 2005 volume first explores macroeconomic issues of interest to all advanced
Frankel and Pissarides, editors
International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005
economies, then analyzes topical questions concerning the eastward expansion of the
European Monetary Union.
Jeffrey A. Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Economic
Growth at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. Christopher
A. Pissarides is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Both are
Research Associates at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Contents
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers
Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based
Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk
Yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc
The Roots of Low European Employment: Family Culture?
International Seminar
Tito Boeri and Pietro Garibaldi
Shadow Sorting
Assaf Razin and Prakash Loungani
Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs
Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King
Fiscal Externalities and Optimal Taxation in an Economic Community
on
Zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, and György Szapáry
Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility
Macroeconomics
2005
Is Idiosyncratic
Balázs Világi
Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy
Macroeconomics
Linda S. Goldberg
Trade Invoicing in the Accession Countries: Are They Suited to the Euro?
edited by Jeffrey A. Frankel
and Christopher A. Pissarides
978-0-262-56229-4
The MIT Press 0-262-56229-4
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142
http://mitpress.mit.edu National Bureau of Economic Research
NBER International Seminar
on Macroeconomics 2005
NBER International Seminar
on Macroeconomics 2005
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides, editors
The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England
NBER/International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005
ISSN: 1932-8796
ISBN-13: 978-0-262-06265-7 (hc.:alk.paper)—978-0-262-56229-4 (pbk.:alk.paper)
ISBN-10: 0-262-06265-8 (hc.:alk.paper)—0-262-56229-4 (pbk.:alk.paper)
Published annually by The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142.
© 2007 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any elec-
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Contents
Abstracts xiii
Introduction 1
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides
Part I: Macroeconomic Policy and Labor Markets
1 Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based
Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk 11
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers
Comments 51
Christopher D. Carroll
Adam Szeidl
2 The Roots of Low European Employment: Family Culture? 65
Yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc
Comments 110
Tito Boeri
Alessandra Fogli
3 Shadow Sorting 125
Tito Boeri and Pietro Garibaldi
Comments 164
Robert E. Hall
Christopher A. Pissarides
x Contents
4 Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs 171
Assaf Razin and Prakash Loungani
Comments 193
Robert G. King
Kenneth D. West
Part II: Implications of an Expanding Monetary Union
5 Fiscal Externalities and Optimal Taxation in an Economic
Community 207
Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King
Comments 251
Pierpaolo Benigno
Francesco Giavazzi
6 Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization:
Irresponsibility Is Idiosyncratic 261
Zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, and György Szapáry
Comments 299
Roberto Rigobon
Lucrezia Reichlin
7 Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy
Macroeconomics 315
Balázs Világi
Comments 350
Richard H. Clarida
Refet S. Gürkaynak
Contents xi
8 Trade Invoicing in the Accession Countries: Are They Suited
to the Euro? 357
Linda S. Goldberg
Comments 394
Charles Engel
Richard Portes
Abstracts
1 Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-
Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers
In September 2002, a new market in “Economic Derivatives” was
launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of sev-
eral macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of
the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of
expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the mar-
ket-based measures somewhat more accurately predict financial mar-
ket responses to surprises in data. These markets also provide implied
probabilities of the full range of specific outcomes, allowing us to mea-
sure uncertainty, assess its driving forces, and compare this measure of
uncertainty with the dispersion of point-estimates among individual
forecasters (a measure of disagreement). We also assess the accuracy of
market-generated probability density forecasts. A consistent theme is
that few of the behavioral anomalies present in surveys of professional
forecasts survive in equilibrium, and that these markets are remarkably
well calibrated. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence
that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and probabili-
ties in this market.
2 The Roots of Low European Employment: Family Culture?
Yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc
OECD countries faced largely divergent employment rates during the
last decades. However, the whole bulk of the cross-national and cross-
temporal heterogeneity relies on specific demographic groups: prime-
age women and younger and older individuals. This paper argues that
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