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Nutritional Modelling for Pigs and Poultry
 Nutritional Modelling for
Pigs and Poultry

Edited by

N.K. Sakomura

Departamento de Zootecnia, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias,

Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

R.M. Gous

University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg,

South Africa

I. Kyriazakis

School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development,

University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

L. Hauschild
Departamento de Zootecnia, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias,
Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
 CABI is a trading name of CAB International
CABI CABI
Nosworthy Way 38 Chauncy Street
Wallingford Suite 1002
Oxfordshire, OX10 8DE Boston, MA 02111
UK USA
Tel: +44 (0)1491 832111 Tel: +1 800 552 3083 (toll free)
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E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.cabi.org
© CAB International 2015. All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be ­reproduced in any form or by any means, electronically,
­mechanically, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the
prior permission of the copyright owners.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library,
­ ondon, UK.
L
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
International Symposium of Modelling in Pig and Poultry Production
(2013 : São Paulo, Brazil), author.
Nutritional modelling for pigs and poultry / edited by N.K. Sakomura,
R.M. Gous, I. ­Kyriazakis, and L. Hauschild.
   p. ; cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-78064-411-0 (alk. paper)
I. Sakomura, N. K. (Nilva Kazue), editor. II. Gous, R. (Rob), editor. III.
Kyriazakis, I. (Ilias), editor. IV. Hauschild, L. (Luciano), editor. V. C.A.B.
International, issuing body. VI. Title.
[DNLM: 1. Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena--Congresses.
2. Poultry--­physiology--Congresses. 3. Animal Husbandry--­methods--
Congresses. 4. Models, ­Biological--Congresses. 5. Swine--­physiology--
Congresses. SF 494]
SF494
636.5089239--dc23
2014011160
ISBN-13: 978 1 78064 411 0

Commissioning editor: Julia Killick

Editorial assistant: Alexandra Lainsbury
Production editor: Lauren Povey

Typeset by SPi, Pondicherry, India.

Printed and bound in the UK by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY.
 Contents

Contributors vii
Preface xi
Acknowledgements xiii

1 An Overview of Poultry Models 1

C. Fisher

2 InraPorc: Where Do We Come From and Where Do We Want to Go? 22

J. van Milgen, J.Y. Dourmad, J. Noblet, E. Labussière, F. Garcia-Launay,
S. Dubois, A. Valancogne and L. Brossard

3 Modelling Reproduction in Broiler Breeder and Laying Hens 38

R.M. Gous

4 Modelling Nutrient Utilization in Sows: A Way Towards the Optimization of

­Nutritional Supplies 50
J.Y. Dourmad, J. van Milgen, A. Valancogne, S. Dubois, L. Brossard and J. Noblet

5 Statistical Issues in Nutritional Modelling 62

N. St-Pierre

6 Basics and Applications of an Exponential Nitrogen Utilization Model

(‘Goettingen Approach’) for Assessing Amino Acid Requirements in Growing
Pigs and Meat Type Chickens Based on Dietary Amino Acid Efficiency 73
F. Liebert

7 Artificial Neural Networks 88

A.S. Ferraudo

8 Challenges Associated with the Application of Poultry Models:

The Case of Turkeys 96
V. Rivera-Torres

v
vi Contents

9 INAVI: A Practical Tool to Study the Influence of Nutritional and

Environmental Factors on Broiler Performance 106
B. Méda, M. Quentin, P. Lescoat, M. Picard and I. Bouvarel

10 Model Applications in Poultry Production and Nutrition 125

E.O. Oviedo-Rondón

11 Commercial Application of Integrated Models to Improve

Performance and ­Profitability in Finishing Pigs 141
N.S. Ferguson

12 Estimating Real-time Individual Amino Acid Requirements in

Growing-finishing Pigs: Towards a New Definition of Nutrient
Requirements in Growing-finishing Pigs? 157
C. Pomar, J. Pomar, J. Rivest, L. Cloutier, M.-P. Letourneau-Montminy,
I. Andretta and L. Hauschild

13 A Model to Optimize Broiler Productivity 175

R.M. Gous

14 AvinespModel: Predicting Poultry Growth, Energy and Amino

Acid Requirements 188
L. Hauschild, N.K. Sakomura and E.P. Silva

15 Maintenance Requirements for Amino Acids in Poultry 209

M.A. Bonato, N.K. Sakomura, J.C.P. Dorigam and R.M. Gous

16 A Model to Estimate the Amino Acid Requirements for Growth and Sexual
­Development in Laying Pullets 223
E.P. Silva, N.K. Sakomura, L. Hauschild and R.M. Gous

17 Responses of Broilers to Amino Acid Intake 234

D.C.Z. Donato, N.K. Sakomura and E.P. Silva

18 Description of the Growth of Body Components of Broilers and Laying Pullets 250
E.P. Silva, N.K. Sakomura, S.M. Marcato and R. Neme

19 Response of Laying Hens to Amino Acid Intake 259

H.C.P. Bendezu, N.K. Sakomura, K.S. Venturini, J. Sato, L. Hauschild,
E.B. Malheiros and R.M. Gous

20 Amino Acid Requirements for Pullets Based on Potential Protein

Deposition and the Efficiency of Amino Acid Utilization 269
M.A. Bonato, N.K. Sakomura, E.P. Silva, J.A. Araújo, A. Sünder and F. Liebert
21 A Comparison of Two Approaches for Determining the Optimum
Dietary Amino Acid Ratios of Fast-growing Broilers 283
J.C.P. Dorigam, N.K. Sakomura, A. Sünder and C. Wecke

Index 297
 Contributors

I. Andretta, Dairy and Swine Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and ­Agri-Food
Canada, PO Box 90, 2000 Route, 108 East Lennoxville, Quebec, J1M 1Z3, Canada. E-mail:
[email protected]
I. Bouvarel, Institut Technique de l’Aviculture, 37380 Nouzilly, France. E-mail: bouvarel.
[email protected]
L. Brossard, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: ludovic.brossard@
rennes.inra.fr
L. Cloutier, Département des Sciences Animales, Université Laval, Quebec, Quebec, G1K
7P4, Canada. E-mail: [email protected]
J.Y. Dourmad, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: jean-yves.dourmad@
rennes.inra.fr
S. Dubois, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: serge.dubois@rennes.
inra.fr
N.S. Ferguson, Nutreco Canada Agresearch, 150 Research Lane, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 4T2,
Canada. E-mail: [email protected]
A.S. Ferraudo, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veter-
inárias, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail: fsajago@
gmail.com
C. Fisher, EFG Software, 20 Longstaff Court, Hebden Bridge, HX7 6AB, UK. E-mail:
­[email protected]
F. Garcia-Launay, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: florence.­
[email protected]
R.M. Gous, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa. E-mail: gous@
ukzn.ac.za
L. Hauschild, Departamento de Zootecnia, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias,
Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail: lhauschild@fcav.
unesp.br
I. Kyriazakis, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, University of Newcastle,
Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. E-mail: [email protected].
E. Labussière, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: etienne.labussiere@
rennes.inra.fr
P. Lescoat, AgroParisTech, UMR1048 SADAPT, 16 rue Claude Bernard, 75231 Paris Cedex
05, France. E-mail: [email protected]

vii
viii Contributors

M.-P. Letourneau-Montminy, Dairy and Swine Research and Development Centre, Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada, PO Box 90, 2000 Route, 108 East Lennoxville, Quebec, J1M 1Z3,
Canada. E-mail: [email protected]
F. Liebert, Georg-August-University Goettingen, Division of Animal Nutrition Physiology,
Kellnerweg 6, 37077, Goettingen, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]
E.B. Malheiros, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veter-
inárias, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail: euclides@
fcav.unesp.br
S.M. Marcato, Departamento de Zootecnia, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá,
Paraná, Brazil. E-mail: [email protected]
B. Méda, INRA, UR83, Poultry Research Unit, 37380 Nouzilly, France. E-mail: bertrand.
[email protected]
R. Neme, Ilender Pharmaceutical Corporation, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail:
­[email protected]
J. Noblet, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: jean.noblet@rennes.
inra.fr
E. Oviedo-Rondón, Prestage Department of Poultry Science, North Carolina State U ­ niversity,
Raleigh, North Carolina, 27695, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
M. Picard, INRA, UR83, Poultry Research Unit, 37380 Nouzilly, France. E-mail: p ­ icard@
tours.inra.fr
C. Pomar, Dairy and Swine Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food
Canada, PO Box 90, 2000 Route, 108 East Lennoxville, Quebec, J1M 1Z3, Canada. E-mail:
[email protected]
J. Pomar, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Universitat de Lleida, Alcalde Rovira
Roure, 191, 25198 Lleida Espagne. E-mail: [email protected]
M. Quentin, Maïsadour, BP 27, 40001 Mont-de-Marsan Cedex, France. E-mail: quentin@
maisadour.com
V. Rivera-Torres, Nutreco Canada, 4780 Martineau, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, J4R 1V1,
Canada. E-mail: [email protected]
J. Rivest, Centre de Développement du Porc du Quebec inc., Sainte-Foy, Quebec, G1V 4M7,
Canada. E-mail: [email protected]
N. St-Pierre, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University, 2029 Fyffe Rd,
Columbus, Ohio, 43210, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
A. Sünder, Georg-August-University Goettingen, Division Animal Nutrition Physiology,
Kellnerweg 6, 37077, Goettingen, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]
A. Valancogne, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: alain.valancogne@
rennes.inra.fr
J. van Milgen, INRA, UMR PEGASE, 35590 Saint-Gilles, France. E-mail: jaap.vanmilgen@
rennes.inra.fr
C. Wecke, Georg-August-University Goettingen, Division Animal Nutrition Physiology,
Kellnerweg 6, 37077, Goettingen, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]

Postgraduate Students of the Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal,

São Paulo, Brazil

J.A. Araújo – [email protected]

H.C.P. Bendezu – [email protected]
M.A. Bonato – [email protected]
D.C.Z. Donato – [email protected]
J.C.P. Dorigam – [email protected]
 Contributors ix

J. Sato – [email protected]
E.P. Silva – [email protected]
K.S. Venturini – [email protected]

Supervisor

N.K. Sakomura, Departamento de Zootecnia, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias,

Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail: sakomura@fcav.­
unesp.br
 Preface

Modelling is a useful tool for decision making in complex agro-industrial scenarios. One
of the first steps required for model development in companies or universities is the
training of students and scientists. This book contains the papers presented at the Inter-
national Symposium of Modelling in Pig and Poultry Production held at Universidade
Estadual Paulista – UNESP, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil, from 18 to 20 June 2013. In this
symposium, basic modelling concepts, descriptions and applications of production
models and new methods and approaches in modelling were discussed. The objective of
the symposium was to encourage greater use of modelling by Brazilian academics and
agro-business.
About 200 people attended the symposium including nutritionists, researchers, pro-
fessors, professionals and students. The organizing committee comprised professors and
students from FCAV – UNESP, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South
Africa and Newcastle University, UK. The symposium was a great success and all goals
were met.
The symposium also marked the culmination of research started over three decades
ago at UNESP – Jaboticabal. In this meeting the main results of the thematic project ‘Models
to estimate amino acid requirements of broilers and laying pullets’ were presented. These
results have been used to develop a simulation model known as the ‘AVINESP Model’.
This event also recognized and honoured Professor Paulo Alberto Lovatto (in
­memoriam) of Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and
Emeritus Professor Rob Gous of the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg,
South Africa.
Professor Paulo Lovatto was a pioneer in developing the field of modelling in Brazil.
After completing his PhD he realized the limitations of human resources in Brazil. Be-
cause of this, Professor Lovatto organized the first research group in modelling, in 2002, to
promote the use of models in research, academia and extension. His work was instrumen-
tal in developing new leaders in this field. The scientific community recognizes and
wishes to thank Professor Lovatto for his contribution. His work will be continued by
those that follow.
Professor Rob Gous dedicated his academic life to mechanistic modelling in poultry
and swine production. His work has been published in over 170 publications worldwide.
These contributions have improved scientific knowledge and have brought new concepts

xi
xii Preface

and thinking to monogastric nutrition. An integration of all publications that he developed

along with a select group of researchers, Professor Trevor Morris, Dr Colin Fisher, Gerry
Emmans and Dr Peter Lewis, was applied in the development of EFG software to optimize
the feeding of poultry and pigs. Professor Rob Gous is retired and this tribute is dedicated
to his person in recognition and appreciation of his work and contribution to the scientific
community and the production sector.
 N.K. Sakomura
 Acknowledgements

Financial support for this symposium is gratefully acknowledged from:

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo – FAPESP;
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES);
Evonik Industries;
Ajinomoto Animal Nutrition;
DuPont;
Nutron;
Adisseo;
ABVista Feed Ingredients;
Kemin;
Hubbard; and
Btech.

xiii
 1 An Overview of Poultry Models

C. Fisher*
EFG Software, Hebden Bridge, UK

Abstract
This overview is concerned with the representation of poultry production systems or their component
­subsystems in theoretical or numerical terms. Many examples are available of such modelling approaches to
problem solving in poultry science. However, the most widely used ‘model’ is still the use of a small group
(or pen) of birds in a replicated empirical trial. The relationship between modelling and experimentation in
solving practical problems in poultry production is a background theme in this review of poultry models.
Three main approaches to modelling poultry systems have been used, although these are not mu-
tually exclusive and frequently overlap in many ways. They are: (i) the use of mechanistic simulation
of some parts of the production system; (ii) methods to extend the value of empirical experiments by
statistical or other numerical methods; and (iii) the use of real-time control systems. In addition to
these there are a few cases where a theoretical model has been used to extend understanding of basic
biological mechanisms and thereby form the basis for further hypothesis testing. Finally, there is an
important range of quantitative methods that are applied directly in the management of poultry pro-
duction. All of these are important and they should not be seen as being in competition with each
other. All can be used in different circumstances and all can have practical usefulness.
Recent developments in poultry modelling will be reviewed within this framework giving em-
phasis to the following points:
1. Identification of the main problems that need to be solved in developing mechanistic simulation
models.
2. Making better use of experimental data by statistical modelling.
3. The encouragement of systems methods and modelling in poultry science. Implications for publication and
sharing of results, for standardized experimental methods and for commercial application.
Because of the background of the author, the emphasis is on nutritional systems and nutrition
research.

Introduction the real world. For example it might be a

picture, an analogue model or a mathemat-
In its widest sense the term ‘model’ may be ical equation. The most widely used model
used to describe any means of representing in applied poultry science is undoubtedly

*E-mail: [email protected]

© CAB International 2015. Nutritional Modelling for Pigs and Poultry

(eds N.K. Sakomura et al.)1
2 C. Fisher

the pen trial, in which the ‘real’ (commercial) has been that the model parameters can be
world is modelled by replicated small groups updated very quickly, e.g. to accommodate
of birds held in pens or cages that, more or genetic improvements. A third impact has
less, reflect ‘normal’ conditions. This familiar been that poultry nutritionists have been less
driven to probe for an understanding of
procedure is undoubtedly a model used to
lower level functions such as metabolic
predict how the real world will behave in dif- regulation, biochemical pathways of nutrient
ferent circumstances and some of its charac- utilization, and energy expenditures in order
teristics as a model may be noted: to describe different metabolic relationships;
and further to incorporate such information
1. This model has formed the main basis of into mechanistic models that might enable
applied poultry science and has clearly more general application.
been very successful in providing the tech-
nical platforms on which a very successful These remarks seem very pertinent to the
industry has grown. The method is simple, present discussion.
relatively cheap and easy to understand. The applications of mathematical mod-
The results are easily communicated. elling in poultry science have been exten-
2. The limitations of the model are acknow- sive and varied. Conferences like this one,
ledged in a general way; for example, the and elsewhere, and several reviews are tes-
extent to which population size or exposure tament to considerable achievement in many
to disease may influence the predictive ac- areas of applied poultry science. And yet if
curacy of the model. But the question of we ask two questions about the impact of
model validation is not considered in a for- modelling on poultry science there still
mal way and receives little attention. seems to be a lot to do. First we may ask
3. The model is clearly empirical, the results whether modelling is an integral part of ap-
applying only to the combination of circum- plied poultry science methodology. Second,
stances that prevailed in the trial. The repeti- whether modelling is fulfilling its potential
tion of similar trials over time and in differ- to improve commercial decision making. At
ent places may be justified by the fact that the present time it is suggested that the an-
some fixed effects in the ‘real’ world change swer to both of these questions has to be no.
over time (e.g. bird genotypes) or to take ac- In this overview of poultry modelling
count of ‘local’ factors such as country or the literature on modelling is reviewed using
broad environmental classifications. these two questions as a background agenda.
4. There is a lot of repetition of similar trials.
This is good in the sense that it increases
confidence in the results, but is bad insofar
Types of Poultry Models
as it wastes limited research resources.
France and Thornley (1984) have suggested
Commenting on the effect of applied trials a useful 2 × 2 × 2 classification of models:
on poultry modelling, Chwalibog and Bald- empirical or mechanistic, deterministic or
win (1995) wrote as follows: stochastic, dynamic or static. While these
are important qualities of the models of inter-
In comparison with nutritionists working est, a different grouping is used in the pres­
with other domesticated species, poultry
ent discussion:
nutritionists have exploited the specific
­advantage of being able to run experiments 1. Models of scientific theories.
with large numbers of animals economically. 2. Models to extend and increase the value
It is common to find experiments evaluating of pen trials.
responses to numerous treatments which are
3. Growth curves.
well replicated and in which up to 10,000
birds were used. This advantage has had
4. Empirical models of poultry production
several major impacts on the practice of systems.
poultry nutrition. One of these has been that 5. Mechanistic models of poultry produc-
most models developed for feeding systems tion systems.
are based on response data. A second ­impact 6. Real-time control models.
 An Overview of Poultry Models 3

Models of scientific theories identify those ­factors that systematically influ-

enced the results of the experiments. In poultry
Explicit statements of theoretical ideas have science this approach was pioneered espe-
not played a very prominent part in poultry cially by G.D. Rosen and was explained by him
research, perhaps because of the availability in promoting the term holo- rather than meta-­
and cost-effectiveness of empirical trials. analysis (Rosen, 2006) for this type of model-
One notable exception is the hypothesis ling. In this paper Rosen eloquently summar-
proposed by Fraps (1955) to explain the izes the objectives and applications of holo- (or
ovulatory cycle of the laying hen. The model meta-) analysis as follows:
of this theory was presented diagrammatic-
ally and described in the accompanying (i) prediction of responses with confidence
limits; (ii) provision of software to quantify
text. Etches and Schoch (1984) formulated
responses to pronutrients and nutrients
the theory in mathematical terms, work unique in time, place, and economics;
which was later extended by Johnston and (iii) translation of research conditions to
Gous (2006). This theory or model under- praxis (field) conditions, as in processed vs
pinned decades of experimental and physio- mash feed, as-hatched vs sexed birds, floor
logical studies, work that was summarized pen vs cage housing, presence vs absence
by Etches (1996). of diagnosed or endemic disease, practical
The other theory that has had a pro- vs purified diet, and optimal vs suboptimal
found effect on nutritional modelling in dosages; (iv) exposure of key missing
both poultry and pigs was promulgated by variables, e.g. temperature and nutrient
contents; (v) discovery of theoretically
Emmans (1981); this is the idea that animals
unpredictable independent variables and
have a definable purpose and that they try interactions; and (vi) definition of topics
to eat enough food to fulfil that purpose. and priorities for future research.
This leads eventually to a quantifiable the-
ory of food intake (Emmans, 1997) and has The methods and applications of meta-­analyses
formed the basis of several models for mono­ in animal nutrition are described and dis-
gastric animals (Emmans, 1981; Ferguson cussed by Sauvant et al. (2008) and will not
et al., 1994). be discussed further here.
These two theories have been brought The following list demonstrates several
­together in work by R.M. Gous to model the significant contributions that the application
productivity of laying hens and broiler of meta- or holo-analysis has made to ap-
breeders (Johnston and Gous, 2006; Gous and plied poultry science.
­Nonis, 2010).
• Morris (1968) combined the results of
34 experiments showing the relationship
between feed intake in laying hens and
Models to extend and increase dietary energy level. A general rule for
the value of pen trials predicting food intake was derived for
birds of different body size (characteristic
Possibly the earliest method used to combine food intake). This analysis has not been
the results of repeated experiments was to updated using more recent data.
use a committee of experts to review the • Fisher and Wilson (1974) combined the
­experiments and to reduce the multiple find- results of 160 estimates of broiler re-
ings to simple (and ostensibly useful) summa- sponse to dietary nutrient density (­energy
ries. This method was extensively used in level at constant nutrient:energy ra-
nutrition to resolve the issue of nutrient re- tios). Linear regressions were derived
quirements (Agricultural Research Council, to summarize the effects of sex, age, breed
1975; National Research Council, 1994). A fur- type, energy:protein ratio and feed form
ther extension was to fit regression models on growth and feed intake responses.
simultaneously to the results of several experi- This analysis has not been updated
ments, both to summarize findings and to ­using more recent data.
4 C. Fisher

• Lee et al. (1971) combined the results of This important commercial dispute was not
a large number of experiments to illus- fully resolved by the application of meta-­
trate the effects of feed restriction on analysis, but this topic illustrates very well
growing pullets. Restriction of feed, the advantages of modelling existing data
dietary energy and dietary protein rather than repeating experiments. Discus-
levels were considered along with their sion about the analytical methods used has
effects on growth, sexual maturity, egg been contributed by Kratzer and Littell (2006),
production and egg weight. This ana- Piepho (2006) and Rosen (2007c).
lysis has not been updated using more A large number of pen trials are concerned
recent data. with the question of nutrient requirements,
• Lewis et al. (1998) combined the results and many arguments and mathematical pro-
from 15 experiments to produce a gen- cedures have been proposed and used in the
eral model describing the effects of con- interpretation of such trials. The trial data
stant photoperiods on sexual maturity typically lead to a description of the re-
of pullets. Further developments of a sponse of an output characteristic to dietary
similar type consider the effects of changes nutrient levels or to nutrient intake. The
in photoperiod on sexual maturity in purpose of the model is to identify one point
laying pullets (Lewis et al., 2002; Lewis on this input–output curve which is desig-
and Morris, 2004, 2008) and in broiler nated a ‘requirement’.
breeder pullets (Lewis et al., 2007). These Although these procedures have been
models have been used in system models widely used in applied poultry science it
of laying birds (see Gous, Chapter 3, can be argued that they are not very logical.
this volume). The idea that populations of birds have
characteristic requirements for nutrients is
An increasing number of empirical pen trials hard to defend and the logical way to deter-
have, in recent years, been concerned with mine nutrient feeding levels for commercial
evaluating different types of feed additive. use is to interpret the experimentally observed
The banning of antibiotic growth promoters response in economic terms. Although this
and the development of feed enzyme tech- idea has been frequently expressed over a
nology have stimulated this type of trial long period of time (Morris, 1983; Mack
work. G.D. Rosen has led the way in using et al., 2000) the conclusions of many re-
combined analyses of such trials: a process sponse trials are still expressed in terms of a
he calls holo-analysis as described above. numerical statement of a ‘requirement’. This
Summaries of the application of these is one area of poultry science where the
techniques to antimicrobials (Rosen, 1995) early adoption of a systems approach and
and enzymes (Rosen, 2010) are available. the use of modelling would have led to a
The application of these techniques to the better use of resources and to better prac-
evaluation of single substances is illustrated tical decision making. These ideas were dis-
by Rosen (2007a,b). From a database of 1717 cussed by Pesti and Miller (1997) and have
publications describing 7001 tests of the been updated by Gous (see Gous, Chapter 13,
­response of broilers to ‘pronutrients’, Rosen this volume).
(2004) calculates that about 100 such tests
are required to determine a statistical model
for predictive purposes. It thus appears that
meta-analysis is a tool to make more effect- Growth curves
ive use of empirical trials but not to reduce
the need for them. The description of growth by mathematical
Many experiments were reported that equations has been a backbone topic for
compared DL-methionine and the hydroxyl animal modelling over many years. This is
analogue of methionine. Competing meta-­ a huge topic still best approached by the
analyses have been reported by Vázquez- student of poultry modelling through the
Añón et al. (2006) and Sauer et al. (2008). work of Parks (1982). A central issue that is
 An Overview of Poultry Models 5

too often ignored is the distinction between function has been selected, then deviations
potential and observed growth. Observed from the smooth function can be used to iden-
growth is the outcome of interactions be- tify periods in which growth might not have
tween the animal’s genotype and both the been unrestricted (Ferguson and Gous, 1993).
internal and external environment in which Studies of growth parameters under as-
it is kept. Potential growth, expressed in a sumed non-limiting conditions have been re-
non-limiting environment, is a concept that ported for broilers by Stilborn et al. (1994),
can reasonably be assumed to reflect the Hancock et al. (1995), Gous et al. (1996, 1999),
genotype of the animal and nothing else. Hruby et al. (1996), Wang and Zuidhof (2004)
There can be no general rule about the na- and Sakomura et al. (2005, 2006). Similar ex-
ture of observed growth and hence no rea- periments have not been reported for turkeys,
son why observed growth data should con- although Emmans (1989) considers the prob-
form to any particular mathematical form. lem. Additional information on turkeys is
Those many studies in which different growth available from Hurwitz et al. (1991) and Porter
equations are compared to observed data et al. (2010).
sets seem to the present writer to not en-
hance our understanding of growth. Parks
(1982) raised this issue in a different way
by considering the mathematical properties Empirical models of poultry
that a growth function may have. He lists sev- production systems
eral cases, one of which that growth is con-
tinuous and possesses continuous rates of A wide range of approaches to the empirical
change of all orders leading to justification modelling of biological systems is described
of a growth function widely accepted by by Roush (2006) and their application to the
most people writing in this field. Parks ar- poultry industry is discussed by Roush
gued that this case should be accepted be- (2001). Amongst the tools listed by Roush (2006)
cause (i) there appears to be no evidence to are: (i) stochastic and fuzzy logic models;
the contrary, and (ii) it is intuitively the most (ii) non-linear dynamics (chaos); (iii) regres-
promising of the cases considered. However, sion analysis and response surface method-
Parks’ assumption that these properties of ology; (iv) artificial neural networks; (v) genetic
growth curves could be used to study the ef- algorithms; (vi) Kalman filter; and (vii) lin-
fects of environmental and non-environmental ear, chance constrained, goal, and quadratic
factors on growth seems to the present writer programming. Elegant examples of each of
to not be justified. Alternative approaches to these procedures have been demonstrated
modelling irregular growth patterns are sug- by Roush and his colleagues but their appli-
gested by the work of Roush et al. (1994), cation to the solution of poultry science
who explored an analytical approach to peri- problems or for commercial decision making
odicity or chaos in broiler growth data, and remains elusive. Ad hoc application of sin-
Talpaz et al. (1991) who modelled growth fol- gle analytical techniques to single problems
lowing a period of feed restriction. (e.g. Faridi et al., 2013) seems to the present
The weakness of arguing for the study of author to emphasize the limitations rather
potential growth is that non-limiting environ- than the usefulness of these methods.
mental conditions are difficult to define and Empirical models are typically based
to confirm in any particular experimental cir- on commercial data or on experimental data
cumstances. It is easy to say that ‘non-limiting’ from pen trials, but can be distinguished
environments must be used, but difficult to from the methods discussed above by the
ensure that they apply to all birds at all times fact that they consider part or all of a poultry
in an experiment. These problems cannot be production system and are aimed at im-
solved completely, although several experi- proved commercial decision making. The
ments of this kind have been reported and distinction between these models and, for
they seem to be based on reasonable assump- example, meta-analysis is not absolute and,
tions for practical modelling. Once a growth as usual, the distinction between empirical
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