Fixed Income Relative Value Analysis Website A Practitioner S Guide To The Theory Tools and Trades 2nd Edition Doug Huggins & Christian Schaller Download Full Chapters
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Table of Contents
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Preface to the Second Edition
NEW REFERENCE RATES
INCREASING DEFAULT RISK OF GOVERNMENTS
REGULATION AND CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS
COMPUTATIONAL ACCESS TO COMPLEX
MODELS
NOTE
CHAPTER 1: Relative Value
THE CONCEPT OF RELATIVE VALUE
THE SOURCES OF RELATIVE VALUE
OPPORTUNITIES
THE INSIGHTS FROM RELATIVE VALUE
ANALYSIS
THE APPLICATIONS OF RELATIVE VALUE
ANALYSIS
THE CRAFT OF RELATIVE VALUE ANALYSIS
SUMMARY OF CONTENTS
NOTE
PART I: Statistical Models
CHAPTER 2: Mean Reversion
WHAT IS MEAN REVERSION AND HOW DOES
IT HELP US?
DIAGNOSTICS FOR MODEL SELECTION
MODEL ESTIMATION
CALCULATING CONDITIONAL
EXPECTATIONS AND PROBABILITY
DENSITIES
CALCULATING CONDITIONAL, EX ANTE
RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS
ASSESSING AND OPTIMIZING EXECUTION
STRATEGIES
A PRACTICAL EXAMPLE INCORPORATING
ALL THE IDEAS
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 3: Principal Component Analysis
INTRODUCTION: GOAL AND METHOD
AN INTUITIVE APPROACH TO PCA
FACTOR MODELS: GENERAL STRUCTURE
AND DEFINITIONS
PCA: MATHEMATICS
PCA AS A FACTOR MODEL
INSIGHT INTO MARKET MECHANISMS
THROUGH INTERPRETATION OF THE
EIGENVECTORS
APPLYING EIGENVECTOR INTERPRETATION
IN DIFFERENT MARKETS
DECOMPOSING MARKETS INTO
UNCORRELATED FACTORS
EMBEDDING PCA IN TRADE IDEAS
APPROPRIATE HEDGING
ANALYZING THE EXPOSURE OF TRADING
POSITIONS AND INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS
PCA AS A TOOL FOR SCREENING THE
MARKET FOR TRADE IDEAS
EXAMPLE OF A PCA-BASED TRADE IDEA
PROBLEMS AND PITFALLS OF PCA 1:
CORRELATION BETWEEN FACTORS DURING
SUBPERIODS
PROBLEMS AND PITFALLS OF PCA 2:
INSTABILITY OF EIGENVECTORS OVER TIME
NOTES
CHAPTER 4: Multivariate Mean Reversion
INTRODUCTION
EXAMPLES
EUR 5Y5Y AND GBP 5Y5Y IMPLIED
VOLATILITIES
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
NOTES
PART II: Financial Models
CHAPTER 5: Some Comments on Yield, Duration,
and Convexity
INTRODUCTION
SOME BRIEF COMMENTS ON THE YIELD OF
A COUPON-PAYING BOND
A BRIEF COMMENT ON DURATION
A COMMON MISAPPLICATION OF
CONVEXITY
NOTE
CHAPTER 6: Some Comments on Yield Curve
Models
INTRODUCTION
REMARKS ABOUT MIXED JUMP-DIFFUSION
MODELS
REMARKS ABOUT SHADOW RATE MODELS
NOTES
CHAPTER 7: Bond Futures Contracts
FUTURES PRICE AND DELIVERY OPTION
ONE-FACTOR DELIVERY OPTION MODELS
THE NEED FOR MULTI-FACTOR DELIVERY
OPTION MODELS
A FLEXIBLE MULTI-FACTOR DELIVERY
OPTION MODEL
NOTES
CHAPTER 8: Fitted Bond Curves
INTRODUCTION
FRAMEWORK OF ANALYSIS
SPECIFYING A FUNCTION FOR DISCOUNT
FACTORS
WEIGHTS
SETTING UP THE OPTIMIZATION
CONCLUSIONS
NOTES
CHAPTER 9: An Analytic Process for Government
Bond Markets
INTRODUCTION
STEP 1: FITTED CURVES
STEP 2: PCA FOR MATURITY SELECTION AND
CURVE TRADES
STEP 3: FITTED CURVES FOR BOND
SELECTION
CHAPTER 10: Overview of the Following Chapters
NOTE
CHAPTER 11: Reference Rates
OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL REFERENCE RATES
OVERVIEW OF THE REPO MARKET
REPO RATES IN GREATER DETAIL
SOFR
DRIVING FORCES OF THE SPREAD BETWEEN
DIFFERENT REFERENCE RATES
THE SPREAD BETWEEN SECURED AND
UNSECURED LOANS AS DRIVEN BY CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS
THE SPREAD BETWEEN UNSECURED O/N
AND TERM RATES AS DRIVEN BY CREDIT
EXPOSURE
COMBINING THE DRIVING FORCES CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS AND CREDIT EXPOSURE
INTO A MODEL FOR THE REPO–LIBOR
SPREAD
NOTES
CHAPTER 12: Asset Swaps
GENERAL CONCEPT
APPLICATION OF THE GENERAL CONCEPT
TO PRICE THE THREE TYPES OF ASSET
SWAPS
TERM STRUCTURE OF SWAP SPREADS
CYCLICALITY OF SWAP SPREADS
DRIVING FORCES OF SWAP SPREADS
CAPTURED IN OUR MODEL
DRIVING FORCES OF SWAP SPREADS NOT
CAPTURED IN OUR MODEL
NOTES
CHAPTER 13: Credit Default Swaps
INTRODUCTION
STRUCTURE OF A CDS
OTHER APPLICATIONS OF CDS: TRADING
CDS VERSUS OTHER CDS AND VERSUS
BONDS
A PCA ON THE CDS CURVE
A PCA ON THE EUR SOVEREIGN CDS
UNIVERSE
A PCA ON RISK-FREE BOND YIELDS
PITFALLS
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 14: Intra-Currency Basis Swaps
DEFINITION
PRICING OF ICBS
ROLE AS BUILDING BLOCKS
CHAPTER 15: Cross-Currency Basis Swaps
DEFINITION
APPLICATIONS OF THE CCBS
CONSTRUCTING ANY REFERENCE RATE
FROM ANY OTHER
ISSUING FOREIGN BONDS WITHOUT FX
EXPOSURE
INVESTING IN FOREIGN BONDS WITHOUT
FX EXPOSURE
PRICING OF THE CCBS
THE IMPACT OF THE TRANSITION TO NEW
REFERENCE RATES ON THE CCBS
NOTES
CHAPTER 16: Combinations and Mutual Influences
of Asset, Basis, and Credit Default Swaps
INTRODUCTION
CALCULATING USD SWAP SPREADS FOR
FOREIGN BONDS
THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN ASSET AND
BASIS SWAPS
ARBITRAGE EQUALITY BETWEEN USD ASW
AND CDS
ARBITRAGE INEQUALITY BETWEEN USD
ASW AND CDS
THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN ASSET, BASIS,
AND CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS
THE EQUILIBRIUM FOR BUNDS (LOW-RISK
BONDS)
THE EQUILIBRIUM IN CASE OF JGBS (RISKY
BONDS)
NOTES
CHAPTER 17: Global Bond RV Via Fitted Curves
and Via SOFR Asset Swap Spreads
INTRODUCTION
SOFR SWAP SPREADS AS A GLOBAL
RELATIVE VALUE INDICATOR FOR BONDS
PROBLEMS WITH THE USE OF SWAP
SPREADS AS RELATIVE VALUE INDICATOR
FOR BONDS
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 18: Other Factors Affecting Swap
Spreads
INTRODUCTION
HAIRCUTS AND MARGINS
REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS
NOTES
CHAPTER 19: Options
INTRODUCTION
A BRIEF REVIEW OF OPTION PRICING
THEORY
CLASSIFICATION OF OPTION TRADES
OPTION TRADE TYPE ➀: SINGLE
UNDERLYING
OPTION TRADE TYPE ➀: TWO OR MORE
UNDERLYINGS
OPTION TRADE TYPE ➁: SINGLE
UNDERLYING
OPTION TRADE TYPE ➁: TWO OR MORE
UNDERLYINGS
OPTION TRADE TYPE ➂: FACTOR MODEL FOR
THE VEGA SECTOR
PITFALLS OF OPTION TRADES OF TYPE ➂
CONCLUSION: SUMMARY OF OPTION TRADE
TYPES AND THEIR DIFFERENT EXPOSURE
SOME REMARKS ABOUT ASIAN OPTIONS
NOTES
CHAPTER 20: Relative Value in a Broader
Perspective
INTRODUCTION
THE MACROECONOMIC ROLE OF RELATIVE
VALUE ANALYSIS AND TRADING
ARBITRAGEURS AND POLITICIANS
THE MISREPRESENTATION OF ARBITRAGE
BY POLITICIANS
CONCLUSION: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF
RELATIVE VALUE
NOTES
Bibliography
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 3
TABLE 3.1 Correlations of the First Three Factors
of a PCA on the Bund Yield...
TABLE 3.2 Correlations of the First Three Factors
of a PCA on Currencies ver...
Chapter 8
Table 8.1 Deliverable Issues into March 2013
Futures Contracts
Table 8.2 Bund Regression Coefficients
Chapter 11
Table 11.1 Most Common Reference Rates in the
Major Markets
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Driving Factors of the Different Types of
Asset Swap Spreads
Chapter 13
Table 13.1 Correlation between Different Points on
the Yield Curve and the F...
Chapter 16
Table 16.1 Risk Exposure of a Bond Together with
Different Combinations of S...
Chapter 18
Table 18.1 Federal Reserve Haircut Schedule
Table 18.2 Bank of England Haircut Schedule
Table 18.3 ECB Haircut Schedule
Chapter 19
Table 19.1 Correlation of the First Three Factors of
a PCA on the Vega Secto...
List of Illustrations
Chapter 2
FIGURE 2.1 Simulated random walk.
FIGURE 2.2 Simulated mean-reverting process.
FIGURE 2.3 Simulated mean-reverting process:
faster mean reversion.
FIGURE 2.4 Simulated mean-reverting process:
even faster mean reversion.
FIGURE 2.5 Spot price of gold in US dollars since
January 1975.
FIGURE 2.6 Realized volatility of 10Y US Treasury
bond yield (bp/year).
FIGURE 2.7 2/5/10 butterfly spread along USD
swap curve since 1988.
FIGURE 2.8 Daily moves of the swaption volatility
difference EUR 5Y5Y – GBP ...
FIGURE 2.9 Examples of drift coefficients.
FIGURE 2.10 Diagnostic tool for drift coefficient.
FIGURE 2.11 Target drift coefficient.
FIGURE 2.12 Diagnostic graph for drift coefficient.
FIGURE 2.13 Histogram of simulated values.
FIGURE 2.14 Nonparametric kernel densities with
different bandwidths.
FIGURE 2.15 Nonparametric kernel density and
histogram.
FIGURE 2.16 Nonparametric kernel density and
histogram.
FIGURE 2.17 EUR and GBP 5Y5Y implied swaption
volatilities.
FIGURE 2.18 Swaption volatility difference: EUR
5Y5Y – GBP 5Y5Y.
FIGURE 2.19 Daily change in swaption volatility
difference series.
FIGURE 2.20 First-order nonparametric estimate of
drift coefficient.
FIGURE 2.21 First-order nonparametric estimate of
diffusion coefficient.
FIGURE 2.22 Unconditional and conditional
densities for the volatility sprea...
FIGURE 2.23 First passage time density of volatility
spread from 12.35 to 7....
FIGURE 2.24 First passage time density of volatility
spread from 12.35 to 1....
Chapter 3
FIGURE 3.1 Structure of point cloud of 2Y and 10Y
Bund yields.
FIGURE 3.2 Cov and examples for its two
eigenvectors.
FIGURE 3.3 Covariance across the Bund yield
curve.
FIGURE 3.4 Scaled eigenvalues of a PCA on the
Bund yield curve.
FIGURE 3.5 First three eigenvectors of a PCA on
the Bund curve.
FIGURE 3.6 First eigenvector of a PCA on the Bund
curve with data from 1993 ...
FIGURE 3.7 Second eigenvector of a PCA of the
vega sector of the JPY implied...
FIGURE 3.8 Example for a cluster analysis of the
whole JPY volatility surfac...
FIGURE 3.9 First three eigenvectors of a PCA on 5Y
CDS for core Eurozone sov...
FIGURE 3.10 Scaled eigenvalues of a PCA on the
soy market.
FIGURE 3.11 Eigenvectors of a PCA on the soy
market.
FIGURE 3.12 Historical evolution of the first and
second factors of a PCA on...
FIGURE 3.13 History of the first three factors of a
PCA on the Bund yield cu...
FIGURE 3.14 Driving forces of a BPV-neutral and a
PCA-neutral 2Y-5Y-7Y butte...
FIGURE 3.15 Two-factor residuals.
FIGURE 3.16 Two-factor residuals of a PCA on
consecutive one-year forward EU...
FIGURE 3.17 One-factor residuals.
FIGURE 3.18 PCA-neutral 2Y-5Y-7Y butterfly.
FIGURE 3.19 PCA-neutral 2Y-5Y-7Y Bund butterfly
and its future path as model...
FIGURE 3.20 First passage time density for the
PCA-neutral 2Y-5Y-7Y butterfl...
FIGURE 3.21 Performance of Bund butterfly after
entry compared to OU model f...
FIGURE 3.22 PCA-neutral 2Y-10Y Bund steepening
position.
FIGURE 3.23 PCA-neutral steepener versus factor
1.
FIGURE 3.24 Evolution of the first eigenvector for
US Treasuries since 1978....
FIGURE 3.25 Evolution of the first eigenvector for
US Treasuries since 2015....
FIGURE 3.26 Scaled eigenvalues of a PCA on
currencies.
FIGURE 3.27 Eigenvectors of a PCA on currencies.
FIGURE 3.28 Factors of a PCA on currencies.
FIGURE 3.29 Factor 3 of a PCA on currencies
versus the S&P500 index.
FIGURE 3.30 Regression of factor 3 of the PCA on
currencies versus the S&P50...
FIGURE 3.31 Two-factor residuals of a PCA on
currencies.
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