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Sampling of Populations
WILEY SERIES IN SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Established in Part by WALTER A. SHEWHART AND SAMUEL S. WILKS

Editors: Robert M. Groves, Graham Kalton, J. N. K. Rao, Norbert Schwarz,

Christopher Skinner

A complete list of the titles in this series appears at the end of this volume.
Sampling of Populations
Methods and Applications

Fourth Edition

Paul S. Levy
RTI International
Statistical Research Division
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

Stanley Lemeshow
The Ohio State University
College of Public Health
Columbus, Ohio

WILEY

A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION

Copyright © 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or
by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as
permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior
written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to
the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax
(978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should
be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ
07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in
preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or
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merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales
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for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor
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For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our
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www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Levy, Paul S.
Sampling of populations : methods and applications / Paul S. Levy, Stanley Lemeshow. — 4th ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-470-04007-2 (cloth)
1. Population—Statistical methods. 2. Sampling (Statistics) I. Lemeshow, Stanley. II. Title.
HB849.49.L48 2008
304.60Г51952—dc21 2008004934

Printed in Mexico

10 9 8 7 6 5 4
 To our wives, Virginia and Elaine,
and our sons, daughters, and grandchildren
Contents

Tables xvi
Boxes xx
Figures xxii
Getting Files from the Wiley ftp and Internet Sites xxiii
List of Data Sites Provided on Web Site xxiv
Preface to the Fourth Edition xxv

PART 1 BASIC CONCEPTS 1

1. Uses of Sample Surveys 3

1.1 Why Sample Surveys Are Used, 3
1.2 Designing Sample Surveys, 5
1.2.1 Sample Design, 5
1.2.2 Survey Measurements, 6
1.2.3 Survey Operations, 6
1.2.4 Statistical Analysis and Report Writing, 7
1.3 Preliminary Planning of a Sample Survey, 7
Exercises, 8
Bibliography, 9

2. The Population and the Sample 11

2.1 The Population, 11
2.1.1 Elementary Units, 13
2.1.2 Population Parameters, 13
2.2 The Sample, 18
2.2.1 Probability and Nonprobability Sampling, 18
2.2.2 Sampling Frames, Sampling Units, and Enumeration Units, 19
2.3 Sampling Measurements and Summary Statistics, 20
2.2.4 Estimation of Population Characteristics, 22
vii
viii CONTENTS

2.3 Sampling Distributions, 25

2.4 Characteristics of Estimates of Population Parameters, 30
2.4.1 Bias, 31
2.4.2 Mean Square Error, 32
2.4.3 Validity, Reliability, and Accuracy, 35
2.5 Criteria for a Good Sample Design, 36
2.6 Summary, 37
Exercises, 37
Bibliography, 42

PART 2 MAJOR SAMPLING DESIGNS AND ESTIMATION

PROCEDURES 43

3. Simple Random Sampling 45

3.1 What Is a Simple Random Sample?,45
3.1.1 How to Take a Simple Random Sample, 46
3.1.2 Probability of an Element Being Selected, 47
3.2 Estimation of Population Characteristics Under Simple Random
Sampling, 49
3.2.1 Estimation Formulas,49
3.2.2 Numerical Computation of Estimates and Their Standard
Errors, 50
3.3 Sampling Distributions of Estimated Population Characteristics, 55
3.4 Coefficients of Variation of Estimated Population Parameters, 58
3.5 Reliability of Estimates, 61
3.6 Estimation of Parameters for Subdomains, 64
3.7 How Large a Sample Do We Need?,70
3.8 Why Simple Random Sampling Is Rarely Used, 75
3.9 Summary,76
Exercises, 76
Bibliography, 79

4. Systematic Sampling 83
4.1 How To Take a Systematic Sample, 83
4.2 Estimation of Population Characteristics, 84
4.3 Sampling Distribution of Estimates, 86
4.4 Variance of Estimates, 90
4.5 A Modification That Always Yields Unbiased Estimates, 92
4.6 Estimation of Variances, 100
4.7 Repeated Systematic Sampling, 103
CONTENTS ix

4.7.1 Use of Stata For Estimation In Repeated Systematic

Sampling, 107
4.7.2 Use of SUDAAN for Estimation in Repeated Systematic
Sampling, 109
4.8 How Large a Sample Do We Need?, 111
4.9 Using Frames That Are Not Lists, 113
4.10 Summary, 114
Exercises, 114
Bibliography, 120

5. Stratification and Stratified Random Sampling 121

5.1 What Is a Stratified Random Sample?, 121
5.2 How to Take a Stratified Random Sample, 122
5.3 Why Stratified Sampling? 122
5.4 Population Parameters for Strata, 128
5.5 Sample Statistics for Strata, 133
5.6 Estimation of Population Parameters from Stratified Random
Sampling, 134
5.7 Summary, 139
Exercises, 139
Bibliography, 142

6. Stratified Random Sampling: Further Issues 143

6.1 Estimation of Population Parameters, 143
6.2 Sampling Distributions of Estimates, 144
6.3 Estimation of Standard Errors, 146
6.4 Estimation of Characteristics of Subgroups, 148
6.5 Allocation of Sample to Strata, 150
6.5.1 Equal Allocation, 151
6.5.2 Proportional Allocation: Self-Weighting Samples, 151
6.5.3 Optimal Allocation, 158
6.5.4 Optimal Allocation and Economics, 160
6.6 Stratification After Sampling, 168
6.7 How Large a Sample Is Needed?, 175
6.8.Construction of Stratum Boundaries and Desired Number of
Strata, 179
6.9 Summary, 183
Exercises, 184
Bibliography, 188
X CONTENTS

7. Ratio Estimation 189

7.1 Ratio Estimation Under Simple Random Sampling, 190
7.2 Estimation of Ratios for Subdomains Under Simple Random
Sampling, 198
7.3 Poststratified Ratio Estimates Under Simple Random Sampling, 200
7.4 Ratio Estimation of Totals Under Simple Random Sampling, 204
7.5 Comparison of Ratio Estimate with Simple Inflation Estimate, 210
7.6 Approximation to the Standard Error of the Ratio Estimated Total,
211
7.7 Determination of Sample Size, 212
7.8 Regression Estimation of Totals, 213
7.9 Ratio Estimation in Stratified Random Sampling, 215
7.10 Summary, 218
Exercises, 218
Bibliography, 222

8. Cluster Sampling: Introduction and Overview 223

8.1 What Is Cluster Sampling? 224
8.2 Why Is Cluster Sampling Widely Used? 226
8.3 A Disadvantage of Cluster Sampling: High Standard Errors, 228
8.4 How Cluster Sampling Is Treated in This Book, 229
8.5 Summary, 229
Exercises, 230
Bibliography, 230

9. Simple One-Stage Cluster Sampling 231

9.1 How to Take a Simple One-Stage Cluster Sample, 232
9.2 Estimation of Population Characteristics, 232
9.3 Sampling Distributions of Estimates, 250
9.4 How Large a Sample Is Needed?, 254
9.5 Reliability of Estimates and Costs Involved, 256
9.6 Choosing a Sampling Design Based on Cost and Reliability, 258
9.7 Summary, 263
Exercises, 263
Bibliography, 268

10. Two-Stage Cluster Sampling: Clusters Sampled with Equal

Probability 269
10.1 Situation in Which all Clusters Have the Same Number N, of
Enumeration Units, 270
CONTENTS xi

10.1.1 How to Take a Simple Two-Stage Cluster Sample, 270

10.1.2 Estimation of Population Characteristics, 271
10.1.3 Estimation of Standard Errors, 273
10.1.4 Sampling Distribution of Estimates, 284
10.1.5 How Urge a Sample Is Needed? 289
10.1.6 Choosing the Optimal Cluster Size n Considering Costs, 292
10.1.7 Some Shortcut Formulas for Determining the Optimal
Number n, 295
10.2 Situation in Which Not All Clusters Have the Same Number N{of
Enumeration Units, 300
10.2.1 How to Take a Simple Two-Stage Cluster Sample for This
Design, 300
10.2.2 Estimation of Population Characteristics, 301
10.2.3 Estimation of Standard Errors of Estimates, 301
10.2.4 Sampling Distribution of Estimates, 311
10.2.5 How Large a Sample Do We Need? 314
10.2.6 Choosing the Optimal Cluster Size n Considering Costs, 317
10.3 Systematic Sampling as Cluster Sampling, 319
10.4 Summary, 320
Exercises, 321
Bibliography, 330

11. Cluster Sampling in Which Clusters Are Sampled

with Unequal Probability: Probability Proportional to Size
Sampling 331
11.1 Motivation for Not Sampling Clusters with Equal Probability, 332
11.2 Two General Classes of Estimators Valid for Sample Designs in
Which Units Are Selected with Unequal Probability, 336
11.2.1 The Horvitz-Thompson Estimator, 336
11.2.2 The Hansen-Hurwitz Estimator, 337
11.3 Probability Proportional to Size Sampling, 340
11.3.1 Probability Proportional to Size Sampling with Replacement:
Use of the Hansen-Hurwitz Estimator, 342
11.3.2 PPS Sampling When the Measure of Size Variable Is not the
Number of Enumeration Units, 350
11.3.3 How to Take a PPS Sample with Replacement, 353
11.3.4 Sequential Methods of PPS Sampling with Replacement-
Chromy's Probability with Minimum Replacement (PMR)
Method, 353
11.3.5 How Large a Sample Is Needed for a Two-Stage Sample in
Which Clusters Are Selected PPS with Replacement? 356
xii CONTENTS

11.3.6 Telephone PPS Sampling: The Mitofsky-Waksberg Method

of Random Digit Dialing, 359
11.4 Further Comment on PPS Sampling, 361
11.5 Summary, 361
Exercises, 362
Bibliography, 364
12. Variance Estimation in Complex Sample Surveys 367
12.1 Linearization, 368
12.2 Replication Methods, 373
12.2.1 The Balanced Repeated Replication Method, 373
12.2.2 Jackknife Estimation, 381
12.2.3 Estimation of Interviewer Variability by Use of Replicated
Sampling (Interpenetrating Samples), 384
12.3 Summary,386
Exercises, 387
Technical Appendix, 390
Bibliography, 392

PART 3 SELECTED TOPICS IN SAMPLE SURVEY

METHODOLOGY 395

13. Nonresponse and Missing Data in Sample Surveys 397

13.1 Effect of Nonresponse on Accuracy of Estimates, 397
13.2 Methods of Increasing the Response Rate in Sample Surveys, 399
13.2.1 Increasing the Number of Households Contacted
Successfully, 399
13.2.2 Increasing the Completion Rate in Mail Questionnaires,400
13.2.3 Decreasing the Number of Refusals in Face-to-Face
Telephone Interviews,400
13.2.4 Using Endorsements,401
13.3 Mail Surveys Combined with Interviews of Nonrespondents,402
13.3.1 Determination of Optimal Fraction of Initial Nonrespondents
to Subsample for Intensive Effort, 403
13.3.2 Determination of Sample Size Needed for a Two-Stage Mail
Survey, 405
13.4 Other Uses of Double (or Two-Phase) Sampling Methodology,
406
13.5 Item Nonresponse: Methods of Imputation,408
CONTENTS xiii

13.5.1 Mechanisms by Which Missing Values Arise, 408

13.5.2 Some Methods for Analyzing Data in the Presence of Missing
Values, 411
13.5.3 Some Imputation Methods, 412
13.6 Multiple Imputation, 416
13.7 Summary, 419
Exercises, 419
Bibliography, 425
14. Selected Topics in Sample Design and Estimation
Methodology 427
14.1 World Health Organization EPI Surveys: A Modification of PPS
Sampling for Use in Developing Countries, 427
14.2 Quality Assurance Sampling, 429
14.3 Sample Sizes for Longitudinal Studies, 432
14.3.1 Simple Random Sampling, 433
14.3.2 Simple One-Stage Cluster Sampling, 434
14.3.3 Cluster Sampling with More Than One Domain, 435
14.4 Estimation of Prevalence of Diseases from Screening Studies, 436
14.5 Estimation of Rare Events: Network Sampling, 440
14.6 Estimation of Rare Events: Dual Samples, 444
14.7 Estimation of Characteristics for Local Areas: Synthetic
Estimation, 446
14.8 Extraction of Sensitive Information: Randomized Response
Techniques, 449
14.9 Summary, 451
Exercises, 451
Bibliography, 452

15. Telephone Survey Sampling 455

Michael W. Link and Mansour Fallimi
15.1 Introduction, 455
15.1.1 The Twentieth Century, 455
15.1.2 The Twenty-First Century, 456
15.2 History of Telephone Sampling in the United States, 456
15.2.1 Early Design of Telephone Surveys, 457
15.2.2 Random Digit Dialing, 457
15.2.3 Mitofsky-Waksberg Sampling Method, 458
15.2.4 List-Assisted Random Digit Dialing Methods, 458
15.3 Within-Household Selection Techniques, 459
15.3.1 Probability-Based Methods, 460
15.3.2 Quasi-Probability Methods, 460
xiv CONTENTS

15.3.3 Nonprobability Methods, 461

15.3.4 Minimally Intrusive Method, 461
15.4 Steps in the Telephone Survey Process, 461
15.4.1 Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing, 462
15.4.2 Quality Control in Telephone Surveys, 463
15.5 Drawing and Managing a Telephone Survey Sample, 463
15.5.1 Drawing the Sample, 463
15.5.2 Managing the Sample, 464
15.5.3 Developing an Analysis File, 465
15.5.4 Data Weighting and Adjustment, 466
15.6 Post-Survey Data Enhancement Procedures, 466
15.6.1 Data Weighting, 466
15.6.2 Steps in the Weighting Process, 466
15.6.3 Compensation for Exclusion of Nontelephone
Households, 474
15.7 Imputation of Missing Data, 476
15.8 Declining Coverage and Response Rates, 477
15.9 Addressing the Problems with Cell Phones, 478
15.9.1 Research on Cell Phone Surveys, 479
15.9.2 Sampling from the Cell Phone Frame, 479
15.10 Address-Based Sampling, 482
Exercises, 483
Bibliography, 483

16. Constructing the Survey Weights 489

Paul P. Biemer and Sharon L. Christ
16.1 Introduction, 489
16.2 Objectives of Weighting, 492
16.2.1 Basic Concepts, 492
16.2.2 Weighting to Reduce Frame Bias, 494
16.2.3 Weighting to Reduce Nonresponse Bias, 495
16.2.4 Weighting to Reduce Sampling Variance, 496
16.3 Constructing the Sampling Weights, 498
16.3.1 Base Weights, 499
16.3.2 Nonresponse Adjustments, 501
16.3.3 Frame Coverage Adjustments, 505
16.3.4 Constructing the Final Weights, 510
16.4 Estimation and Analysis Issues, 511
16.4.1 Effect of Weighting on the Variance, 511
16.4.2 Using Weights in Analysis, 513
16.5 Summary, 514
Bibliography, 515
CONTENTS xv

17 Strategies for Design-Based Analysis of Sample Survey

Data 517
17.1 Steps Required for Performing a Design-Based Analysis, 518
17.2 Analysis Issues for "Typical" Sample Surveys, 528
17.3 Summary, 535
Technical Appendix, 535
Bibliography, 536

Appendix 537
Answers to Selected Exercises 543

Index 571
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