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 Effects of adaptation to climate change on
income of cattle owners in the pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities of Northern Ethiopia

Melaku Berhe, Dana Hoag, Girmay Tesfay, Shunji Oniki

and Masaru Kagatsume

Invited paper presented at the 5th International Conference of the African Association of
Agricultural Economists, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Copyright 2016 by [authors]. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this
document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice
appears on all such copies.
 Effects of adaptation to climate change on income of cattle owners in the
pastoral and agro-pastoral communities of Northern Ethiopia

Melaku Berhe1, Dana Hoag2, Girmay Tesfay2, Shunji Oniki3 and Masaru Kagatsume4

1. Mekelle University, College of Dry-Land Agriculture and Natural Resources, Department of

Natural Resource Economics and Management, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
2. Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Fort Collins,
CO 80523-1172, USA.
3. Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Science (JIRCAS), Tskuba, Japan.
4. Kyoto University, Japan

Abstract
The varying circumstances driven by climate threats and the consequences posed on the
environment and humans of dry-land regions, where pastorals and agro-pastorals dominantly
live have become the prior policy concerns in Africa. Hence, this study was tended to
investigate the effects of various adaptation measures on the income level of pastorals and
agro-pastorals in northern Ethiopia. Data were gathered using semi-structured questionnaires
including qualitative ideas obtained from group discussants and key informants. The study
revealed that repeated droughts caused by climate change left the pastorals and agro-pastorals
with herd decimation due to lack of animal feed. In responding this, they applied various
adaptation actions such as water harvesting schemes; fodder production, feed purchase,
migration, livestock diversification and animal restocking. Using such measures, cattle
owners generated income from livestock, cropping, sales of fuel-wood, agricultural wages,
remittance and relief aid. Thus, it is concluded that sustainable income creation via various
adaptation methods is an important pathway to enable the pastoral and agro-pastoral
communities while they respond to the adverse effects of climatic change.

Key words: Adaptation, cattle, climate change, income, pastoral

I. Introduction
Since long years from now, the dire effects of climate change have been observed in various
forms among the livelihood options of the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in East
Africa (Tsegaye et al., 2010a). Although the livelihood sources entirely depend on land
suitability for sustenance of livestock and crop productivity, land degradation attributed by
human, drought and climate factors is conspicuously noticed in terms of loss of livelihood
sources, biodiversity and expansion of desertification (Adger et al., 2000; Prince, 2002;
Stringer et al., 2009). These have further weakened the adaptive capacity of the pastorals and
agro-pastorals that are largely concentrated in the dry-land regions of East Africa (Sandford,


Corresponding author: Tel. +251914782072; Fax: +25134409314; P.O.Box: 231
E-mail Address: [email protected]
2006a). For instance, traditional adaptation strategies such as livestock mobility,
diversification, feed purchase and animal restocking have become unable to support their
livelihood requirements as they used to get benefits many years ago (Wassie and Fekadu,
2014; Kima et al., 2015). Moreover, their dependence on livestock rearing has got much
constrained by population growth, occupation of former grazing areas by human settlements
(emergence of new villages) and urbanization (Tsegaye et al., 2013). Although population
growth and gradual emergence of peri-urban centers seem to hold great promise as potential
sources of market opportunities for livestock producers (Markakis, 2004), the future
livelihoods of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the contemporary climatic change
has critically remained among the biggest challenges (Sandford, 2006a). In responding such
challenges, pastoralists and agro-pastorals have long history of involvement in various forms
of adaptation methods based on their own local indigenous knowledge (ATPS, 2013).

Here, the term ‘adaptation’ is used to refer to any reactionary responses to a new set of
conditions, either intentionally or autonomously to adjust to certain pressures posed by
climatic change, which distress human wellbeing (Smit and Wandel, 2006; IPCCb, 2007;
Parry et al., 2007). Adaptation is viable if applicable actions adequately reduce magnitude of
vulnerability and increase people’s adaptive capacity (ability to support system’s structure
and help functioning) towards improved level of resilience (the rate at which a system regains
its structure and function after some adaptation actions) (Stringer et al., 2009). In the
literature, there are two major opposite debates focused on whether pastoral way of life could
serve as adaptation strategy to respond to climate change in the dry-land regions of East
Africa. The first group contends with deep pessimism about pastoral way of life in the sense
that pastoralism is an old mode of living by which pastoralists couldn’t realize their
livelihoods till to date (Sandford, 2006a). Pastoralists are highly exposed to warning changes
evolved from variability in climate and weather, population pressure, land degradation,
marketing, governance and access to technology (Bradburd, 1982; Hogg, 1992; COMESA,
2009). Evidently, human population growth in the Greater Horn of Africa has
disproportionately affected the ecological base of rangelands, which threatened its carrying
capacity to support huge livestock herds and consequently left the pastoral and agro-pastoral
communities in crisis (Sandford, 2006a).

Indeed, pastoral mode of living follows communal ownership of rangeland resources

(Hundie, 2008), which negatively affects the motives of individuals to invest on conservation
and this further leads to unsustainable use of resources (Hardin, 1968). According to
Sandford (2006a), introducing improved livestock management in ways of permanent
settlement life should be prioritized and this can be credible if it is integrated with irrigation
and mixed livestock-cereal production along with forage enhancement schemes. His
argument went on that settling pastoral community into permanent location leads to provision
of basic infrastructure including schools, health services, road accesses, veterinary services
and so forth. These would further enable pastorals and agro-pastorals to adjust their mode of
livestock production and crop farming based on expected livelihood improvements.
In contrary to this view, the second group of scholars strongly advocates the importance of
pastoral living style to maintain their livelihood bases through their traditional systems
(Mortiz et al., 2009; Nassef et al. 2009). Research findings demonstrate that pastoral system is
an easy way to adapt to climatic effects owing to its suitability to the arid and semi-arid
environment through strategies of establishing strong social capital, economic cooperation
among community members and clan lineage networks, herd diversification and restocking
methods (Mortiz et al. 2003; Birch and Grahn 2007; Oxfam 2009). In their context, pastoral
mode of production allows the community to keep their cultural systems and knowledge
while responding the negative effects of climate change. This is because livelihood bases of
pastoralists are determined by strong social institutions within the community that basically
do not require policy replacement. Instead of changing the prolonged indigenous mode of
living into the proposed new style of life, more attention is needed to enhance their mobility
strategy in a way that supports their adaptive capacity to cope with climate effects.

Keeping the two debates in mind, there exist a wide divergence of opinions about the
sustainability of pastoral way of life and its corresponding contribution towards climatic
adaptation in the dry-land regions of Africa. However, adaptation possibilities are heavily
dependent on varieties of factors such as traditional and modern institutions, market (Smit et
al., 2000), resource availabilities (Sandford, 2009), human and livestock population in a
specific land size (Tsegaye etal., 2013) and availability of livelihood options apart from
livestock earnings (Berhanu et al., 2007; Galvin, 2009). As noted by Adger et al. (2005) and
Getachew (2001), people’s reaction to climatic change may vary depending on multiple
factors that enable them to adjust accordingly. Considering the existence of each factor, it
makes difficult to carry out the stand points of the two debates into policy actions without
having sizeable evidences about the extent that the factors influence the lives of pastorals and
agro-pastorals. This requires thorough investigation on how coexisting multiple factors
determine the adaptive capacity of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities across various
climatic regions (Adger et al., 2005). Lack of research evidences to the study of climatic
adaptation on pastorals and agro-pastorals will obviously continue to widen the conceptual
differences among various viewers (ATPS, 2013), which may further trigger lack of
consensus across the communities (pastorals and agro-pastorals), policy makers and decision
makers. This challenge may be addressed if pragmatic information on various determinant
factors can clearly be identified and made available. Hence, this article attempts to explain
how major factors influence the adaptive capacity of pastorals and agro-pastorals? Which
adaptation methods contribute to which types of income sources? And to what extent the
likely adaptation methods applied by pastorals and agro-pastorals resulted in on their income
levels? With the aid of empirical information, an analysis on the multitude nature of pastoral
and agro-pastoral communities against the major determinant factors helps indicate for
seeking improved sustainable approaches reasonably compatible to their ways of living.

Similarly in Ethiopia, identifying major factors that affect the adaptive capacity of pastorals
and agro-pastorals have recently become prior concerns while attempting to improve the
livelihoods of (Tsegaye et al., 2013). This is crucial because climatic adaptation via
livelihood improvement helps fulfilling the living requirement of pastoral and agro-pastoral
communities which account about 12% of the country’s total population and its share to total
GDP reaches nearly 16% per annum (CSA, 2008). Among the entire pastoralists in the
country, about 29% of them are living in the Afar Regional State (Sara and Mike, 2008).
Hence, pastoral way of living in the Afar region is one of the top livelihood sources by
relying on production of diverse livestock species, notably camels, goats, cattle and sheep
(Hogg, 1997; Tsegaye et al., 2013). In the due course of their engagement on animal
production to meet their subsistence living, the natural resource base in the region is highly
subject to overgrazing and deforestation with an increasing number of human and livestock
populations (Kassahun et al., 2008; Tsegaye et al., 2010a), which apparently accelerate land
degradation (Galvin, 2009). This has been compounded with unpredictable pattern of rainfall
and changing temperature, mainly with its rising level (Campbell et al., 2005). Rainfall
uncertainty and varying temperature exposed the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities to
threats of prolonged crisis (Kassahun et al., 2008; Sandford, 2009).

While attempting to deal with the existing climate related challenges among the pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities, there have been still conceptual differences on whether the
sources of the challenges stemmed from natural pressures or from various factors associated
to failures in implementation. Failing to address political, social, economic, cultural and
ecological factors, some governments perceive the existence of these challenges as if they
were the common features of arid and semi-arid regions, whereby they paid little attention to
pastoral and agro-pastoral communities (OXFAM, 2008). Consequently, inadequacy of
understanding about the underlying effects of each factor (Crane et al., 2011) remains puzzle
to clearly verify how locally practiced adaptation strategies uphold the livelihoods of
pastorals and agro-pastorals. It is unclear which adaptation strategies can fit to what sort of
livelihood options depending on varying climatic zones (Sandford, 2009). The large body of
previous study is focused on climate modelling techniques for identifying future threats of
climate change and outlining realistic adaptation approaches (Adger et al., 2005). Some
suggested sets of adaptation methods such as diversifying income options, building formal
and informal institutions, adjustments in livestock holdings and species, labor mobility,
engagement in small irrigation schemes and livestock mobility (Mortiz et al. 2003; Berhanu
et al., 2007; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; Crane et al., 2011; Tsegaye et al., 2013). However,
empirical knowledge dealing with the effects of each adaptation strategy on the income of
households is scarce. Hence, this study looks for realizing two important objectives. The first
is the analysis on perceived effects of climatic change by rural pastorals and agro-pastorals
and the second is to clearly examine the major adaptation factors that attribute to the income
level over the course of five years.

II. Materials and methods

2.1. Study area
The study was based on panel data gathered during the years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and
2015 from the district, Aba’ala, in the Afar Regional State of north-eastern Ethiopia. The
Afar Region is situated in the great East African Rift Valley, which domestically bordered by
Oromia on the south-west and south, Amhara on the north-west, Tigray on the north-east, and
Somali on the south-east. Specifically, Aba’ala district lies between the highland escarpments
of Tigray Region and the world’s deepest area called “Danakil Depression.” Aba’ala district
records a highly fluctuating rainfall with an estimated coefficient of 33% relatively varying
from year to year (Meze-Hausken, 2004). Its annual average rainfall ranges between 150mm
and 500 mm (Tsegaye et al., 2010a), whereby it frequently receives very erratic rainfall
during ‘Karma’ season, which constitutes rainy season between mid June to mid September.
While the district has mean temperature varying from 20°C to 48°C, its altitude ranges from
100m below sea level in Berahle to 1500m above sea level in Wuhdet (the town center of
Aba’ala district). The district is populated with nearly 37, 943 inhabitants living over an area
of about 1,188.72 square kilo meters (CSA, 2008).

While looking at the effects of various adaptation practices by pastoralists and agro-
pastoralists on their income improvements, Aba’ala district was chosen for this study because
of two reasons. First, the district is characterized by its dryness and the common phenomenon
of drought occurrences for about five decades. Due to its geographical remoteness from the
Awash River and other perennial rivers, Aba’ala is one of the districts in the northern Afar
currently suffering from lack of water and grazing access during drought periods.
Consequently, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists of the district have frequently been forced to
move to other districts in search of livestock feed (Yakob et al., 2001). Second, the existence
of indigenous experiences of climatic adaptation methods by pastoralists, agro-pastoralists
and mixed farming (livestock and cropping) in the district motivated this research to make
detail analysis and scale up best practices of each method to other areas having similar
contexts.

In the face of climatic change, adaptation strategies pursued by the communities of Aba’ala
district can be grouped into four categories, namely pastoral, semi-pastoral, agro-pastoral and
mixed farming (Tsegaye et al., 2013). Each category has its own peculiarity in responding the
risks of climate change. Since long period, pastoralists were the early pioneers that have
been living in Aba’ala district. Tracing back to the historical connections established between
the pastoralists and migrants from the highlands of neighboring Tigray, both communities
started living and working together since the middle of the 20th century (Kloos, 1982b). As
the result, migrants from the Tigray Region continued practicing cropping and animal
husbandry in Aba’ala. The district became known for its rain-fed agricultural suitability for
growing maize, sorghum and some cereals like tef and barley (Tsegaye et al., 2010a). This
has enhanced strong linkages between the indigenous pastoralists and the highland
communities in terms of their economic interests and marriage relationships. Realizing the
negative effects of climatic variability on their livelihood bases, the Afar pastoralists
gradually began supplementing their food gaps through farming crops along with livestock
herding (Tsegaye et al., 2013).

2.2.Methods of Sampling and Data Collection

The study employed two stages of primary survey. First, a reconnaissance appraisal was
conducted to have a broader understanding on adaptive behaviors of pastoralists and agro-
pastoralists and livestock-crop farmers that already dwell in the study area. During the
exploratory survey, series of discussions were held with various stakeholders including clan
leaders, farmers, pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, extension workers and agricultural experts.
Obtaining pertinent information from the first stage, it was used to refine the study objectives,
sampling methods and the survey instrument. Qualitative data were gathered to supplement
data types that cannot be obtained via quantitative methods. This would validate the
quantitative results to come up with storylines of information about local practices of
adaptation to climate change for improving their livelihood sources. Before setting out to
field work for data collection, clan leaders, religious leaders, village administrators and elders
were selected to hold group discussions. The important criterion for the inclusion of such
discussants in this context was based on their pertinence for substantiating the findings.
During the discussion, ethnographical methods were used to explore the contribution of Afar
pastoralists and highland settlers in building livelihood assets.

For instance, participants broadly explained about the Damhoita clan, which dominantly
serves the Afar people in setting local rules to manage pasture areas and natural resources and
mobilize the community during droughts. The Damohita leaders take leading roles in making
their clan members collaborate to other communities within the Afar region and other
community members in neighboring districts of the highland areas (e.g. Tigray, Amhara,
Oromia and others). Besides, the Damhoita leaders are responsible to resolve any incidents of
conflict together with other clans and neighboring communities. Revealing the livelihood
sources on which the communities in Aba’ala district have relied largely to respond to the
adverse effects of climatic change, the group discussants expounded the main mode of
strategies in respect to the pursuance of each group of community. Following Tsegaye et al.,
(2013), we classified the kebeles (lowest administrative villages) into four communities;
namely pastorals, semi-pastorals, agro-pastorals and mixed farming.

In the context of Afar, pastorals refer to people pursuing on rearing animals mainly of camel,
small ruminants and cattle. They use natural grazing through extensive mobility in search of
animal feed and water. Semi-pastorals in the Afar region are also originally pastoralists,
whose livelihoods principally depend on animal rising. Besides to animal rearing, they own
cultivable land which entirely shared out to farmers coming from Tigray highlands.
According to key informants, semi-pastoralism started during the 1970s to respond to
occurrences of recurring droughts. Agro-pastoralists are farmers that directly involve
themselves in growing crops and rising animals with their prior focus for animal production,
dominantly cattle and small ruminants. In the fourth group, namely mixed farming is the
group of people engaged mainly on cropping and rising small number of livestock originally
migrated from the Tigray highland areas (Tsegaye et al., 2013).

Based on the four community classifications, we went on sampling across 11 kebeles

(villages) of the district in Aba’ala. Out of the 11 Kebeles, five are pastorals, three are semi-
pastorals, one is agro-pastoral and the remaining two are farming communities. To ensure
appropriate representation of each group, two-stage stratification sampling methods were
applied to minimize heterogeneities among groups (strata). In total, there were about 2224
household heads across the four groups. Proportionately, the number of households in each
stratum (group) constitutes 760 pastorals, 284 semi-pastorals, 505 agro-pastorals and 675
farming communities. In sum, about 313 representative sampled interviewees were drawn
from each group; 107 pastorals (33.3%), 40 semi-pastorals (12.8%), 71 agro-pastorals
(22.7%) and 95 farming (31.2%). A survey of panel data was gathered from 313 sampled
households. So as to preclude seasonal variations, data collection was conducted every
November of each year.

2.3. Conceptual Framework

Rural income can be affected by numerous factors such as rural policies, household’s
adaptive behavior, natural pressures like drought and temperature, resource availabilities
including infrastructure, access to market and information, and so forth. In situations where
pastoral, agro-pastoral and farm communities confront multiple effects of climate change and
whose income level over a number of periods is thought to be highly fluctuating due to
unknown factors, this study tends to distinguish the effect of various adaptation methods on
household income levels. Panel data was gathered from individual households and estimated
using fixed effect model. The application of this model captures the extent of various
explanatory variables that affect the income level of households over time. Fixed effect
model helps to avoid the effects of independent variables that never vary over the panel years
such as sex, topographic location, religion, type of community, race and others (Wooldridge,
2002).

Hence, any effect that may originate due to the influence of fixed variables is controlled by
fixed effect model (Verbeek, 2004). Then, fixed effect model removes the influence of those
time-invariant characteristics from the independent variables and the net effect of each
independent variable that varies over the panel years is estimated by the model (Baltagi,
2005). Another important quality of the fixed effect model is that those time-invariant
characteristics are unique to the individual and should not be correlated with other individual
characteristics (Wooldridge, 2002). If the error terms are correlated, the estimating model has
to be tested whether it requires random-effects or fixed effects and this necessitates applying
the Hausman test (Baltaji, 2005). In this case, our dependent variable, income, was measured
in Ethiopian Birr. Based on Baltagi (2005) and Wooldridge (2002), the following equations
are to show how fixed effect estimation eliminates the time invariant unobserved effects as
given below:

Yit   0  1 xit1   2 xit 2      xtik  ai  uit (1)

Where:
Yit represents the dependent variable (Income measured in Ehiopian Birr),
Xi refers the vector of explanatory variables
t refers time period (t=1, 2, 3, 4)
ai represents fixed effect (a vector of unobserved effects)
uit= error terms across years
 i = estimated coefficients
The correlation between the fixed effect ai and the explanatory variables (Xi) will cause
biases in the estimated coefficients. Thus, we need to eliminate the effects of fixed variables
represented by ai from the estimation. First, we computed the sample average variables for
each individual. That is, for ith individual, we divided equation (1) by time “t” to obtain
equation (2) in the following form:

yi   0  1 xi1   2 xi 2       k xik  ai  ui (2)

Since ai is constant over time, ai term in equation (1) does not have an over-bar. Now,
subtract (2) from (1) to get the following equation called the within fixed effect
transformation (Baltagi, 2005).

( yit  yi )  1 ( xit1  xi1 )   2 ( xit 2  xi 2 )       k ( xitk  xik )  (uit  ui ) (3)

The net effect captured by equation (3) is free from effects of time invariant variables that we
cannot measure in farming practices across years. Thus, this estimation allows us to observe
the pure effect of applying various adaptation methods on income levels during the four
consecutive years.

Considering the nature of rural income variables, they are dynamically interrelated each other
and this further requires verifying the effect of lagged income (income of previous year) on
current income. Hence, limitation of fixed effect model that may arise due to the inclusion of
lagged variable (income) was checked using dynamic panel model as shown in equation (4).

Yit  i , t  1  xit i   it (4)

where i  1,...,N ; t  1,...,T and  it   i  it

Here, the dependent variable i. e. the income of pastorals, agro-pastorals and farming
communities, depend on observed explanatory variables signified by xit , latent effects
represented by  it and the coefficient of lagged dependent variable ( i, t  1 ) is designated by
 . The error term,  it , is the overall time effect, which arises from heterogeneous behavior of
individuals (  it ) and time invariant variables ( it ) (Baltagi, 2005). In situations where time
effect is considerable, the use of dynamic panel modeling is needed because the inclusion of
lagged dependent variable as a regressor may result in autocorrelation problem which in turn
leads to biased estimates of Fixed Effect model. In this case, the dependent variable ( Yit ) is a
function of it , which means the lagged variable ( i, t 1 ) is serially correlated to the error term
( it ) where the use of Fixed Effect model becomes questionable (Nickell, 1981; Kiviet,
1995).

III. Results and Discussion

3.1.Perceived Effects of Climate Change
Table 1 presents the percentage of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists that perceived the major
effects of climatic change. Out of the total respondents, 88.31% significantly perceived
repeated frequencies of drought occurrences, which evolved due to climatic change. They
explained that prolonged drought was their major challenge that largely damaged the natural
resources, and finally followed by lack of feed and water for people and animals. Masih et al.
(2014) also noted that drought severely harms the ecosystem and worsens considerably
human crisis. Moreover, 94.95% of the interviewees confirmed the effects of climate change,
which widely destroyed crop farming twice or more times within a five years’ period (Table
1). During drought period, 99.1% of the respondents reported lack of animal feed as their
critical challenge. In the study area, majority of the respondents sensitized the effects of
climate change in terms of rainfall variability (96.86%), temperature change (68.88%),
untimely raining and flooding (94.96%), scarcity of water (96.23%), shortage of food for
human (97.96%) and drying of streams and other water sources (94.63%) (Table 1).

During drought times, many livestock owners altogether obliged to use the same water
sources (rivers, ponds, wells, and streams) to drink their animals. As elucidated by the key
informants, cattle herds that mainly compete for similar grazing land and water sources were
likely to be liable to enormous diseases. This shows the need to introduce better cattle
management such as zero grazing, which may address problems related to disease prevalence
due to the influx of a large number of livestock used to drink the same water sources.

Table 1: Perception of Respondents on Climatic Change

No. Perceived Climate Change Cattle Owners Felt the Effects of Climate Change in
Effects Percent (n=313)
I don’t I don’t I felt it I felt it
know feel any moderately significantly
1 Recurrent drought 0.32 4.09 7.80 88.31
2 Rainfall variability 2.43 0.7 6.13 90.73
3 Temperature change 27.41 3.71 8.24 60.64
4 Prevalence of human disease 1.21 2.11 5.69 90.99
4 Prevalence of animal diseases 3.00 1.79 5.18 90.03
5 Untimely raining and flooding 2.78 2.81 7.28 87.54
7 Scarcity of water 1.60 2.17 7.28 88.95
8 Lack of human food 1.98 0.06 1.15 96.81
9 Lack of animal fodder 0.64 0.26 1.90 97.20
10 Crop failure 1.85 3.19 10.81 84.15
11 Noticeably drying of streams 1.88 3.51 10.80 83.83
and rivers

3.2. Socioeconomic Characteristics of pastorals and Agro-pastorals

Following the economic labor force age category grouped by International Labor Office
(2011), the pastoral group whose age between 15 and 64 years were found as active labor
force population, whereas people whose age below 15 and greater than 64 years were named
as dependent labor force group. As shown in Table 2, the interviewees were entirely in the
age category between 25-77 years. The finding indicates that majority of the cattle owners
were found to be in the age category of productive labor force. This would entail the
possibility of applying various adaptation methods in responding the adverse effects of
climatic change. With proper management and planned implementation of community
members across rural villages, concerted adaptation actions can be the means to instigate
rural youths for creating various income options (Melaku and Hoag, 2014). Hence, the
presence of the working age population in the area is the potential resource for developing
sustainable income options and minimizes climate-related risks.

In terms of gender composition, 82.11 percent of the respondents were males and the
remaining 17.89 percent were females. Based on ideas obtained from key informants and
group discussants, females in the Afar region were generally burdened with indoor family
management tasks, which deterred them from accessing to various income generating
activities such as possible benefits from livestock rearing and off-farm activities. The result is
consistent with other studies conducted by Chala et al., (2012) and FAO (2012) in the sense
that females in Ethiopia have cultural hindrances that obstructed their involvement in various
developmental activities outside their home. This indicates women's engagement in family
management of daily house tasks such as cooking, washing, and taking care of their children.
In most cases, women are deprived of formal education and working outside homes to
supplement their financial requirements.

Table 2: Socio-economic Characteristics of the Cattle Owners (n=313)

Socio-economic Characteristics of Observation Mean Standard Minimum Maximum
Households (n=313) Deviation
Overall age in years 313 48.86 10.74 25 77
Age group in years less than 15 0 0 0 0 0
Age group in years between 15-64 282 46.71 8.90 25 64
Age group in years above 64 30 68.82 3.15 65 77
Agricultural working experience 313 24.78 11.56 3 53
in years
Size of cattle holding 313 6.77 2.61 1 25
Size of goat 313 15.49 22.99 0 96
Size of sheep 313 0.03 0.31 0 4
Size of camel 313 0.3 1.15 0 11
Family size 313 6.70 2.20 2 24
Annual income 313 4, 924.05 2, 299.53 532 15, 717

Among the respondents, 66.90 percent did not get any chance to get formal education, 19.62
percent could write and read, 13.48 percent reached primary level, and nobody went to
secondary school (Table 2). It was presumed that more educated people were possibly to
have awareness about the effects of climate change and to apply various adaptation measures
to respond to the effects. With respect to experiences of the respondents on agricultural
practices, the mean year was about 24.79. The major animal holdings by the interviewees
were cattle (ox and cow), goat, sheep and camel as shown in Table 2.

3.3.Adaptation to Climatic Change via Creating Various Income Options

Table 3 depicts some major income options by which the Afar pastoralists and agro-
pastoralists attempted to adapt to multiple effects of climatic change. Given indigenous
coping mechanisms the community possessing, pastorals and agro-pastorals dynamically
apply various adaptation options by engaging on creation of various income alternatives.
Among the options, the contribution of livestock accounted for about 65.73 percent of the
total income. In the due course of estimating net income obtained from livestock, we
squeezed the total gross income by deducting all expenses made on purchase of fodder,
payments for hired labor and fees for veterinary services. In the estimation, we included the
major components of livestock income sources such as sales of live animals, milk, butter oil,
hides and skins.

Considering the above cost outlays, nearly 14.08 percent of the income portion of the
respondents was supplemented from cropping, which largely is pertaining to the semi-
pastorals, agro-pastorals and mixed farming communities (Table 3). While the income part of
the respondents obtained from sales of firewood and charcoal reached about 4.10 percent of
the total, it has important implication that many of them were found to be dependent in
exploiting the natural resource forests for commercial purpose (Table 3). This may be taken
as an indication of how income constraints can pressurize the rural people to keep on selling
firewood and charcoal for meeting their short-term needs without considering the long-term
burdens on the natural resource base. Hence, continual damage of the natural forest can
accentuate the negative effects of climatic change in the area. In this context, the key
informants further recommended urgent measures to enable the fuel-wood sellers to shift to
compatible income diversification alternatives like honey production, commercial tree
plantation, livestock rearing, and trading, which are eco-friendly livelihood alternative
sources. Similar conclusions made by Habibah (2010) indicate that farmers can be active
participants in protecting the natural resources if they find that the resources offer them any
kind of perceived benefits in sustainable ways. Consistently, Hagos (2003) posited that
income diversification in environment friendly way could be a means to reduce poverty and
ensure resource stewardship.

Table 3: Ways to Adapt to Climate Change via Improving Income Options

Income Options Pursued by Households Income Mean Standard Minimum Maximum
(n=313) Share (%) Deviation
Income from cropping 14.08 3646.00 1143.64 1200 8000
Income from agricultural wage 1.03 1328.99 2083.22 0 7411
Sales of fuel-wood 4.10 870.22 210.52 0 3121
Income from livestock 65.73 17015.00 268.26 0 39012
Income from non-agricultural wage 0.62 161.23 542.80 0 3500
Income from remittance 0.23 600.57 449.47 0 5120
Income from relief 14.11 3653.80 1242.23 0 7960
Income from self employment 0.08 21.60 157.72 0 2310
Others 0.56 381.10 109.19 0 1521

3.4.Adaptation via Cattle Management

In the history of the Afar community, natural pasture has continued serving as the dominant
source of feed for their cattle. But later, the influx of migrated people from highland areas
along with the indigenous Afar began settling in specific villages during the 1960s (Tsegaye
et al., 2013). It was since this period cropping was introduced in Aba’ala. Owing to repeated
droughts over series of years, rural farmers realized that storing animal feed such as straws
and hay would paramount essential to save the lives of their livestock. As shown in Table 4,
farmers in Aba’ala Woreda (district) harvested hay and straw across the five years (2011 to
2015). In Table 4, the least harvest of hay and straw during 2015 may be because of the
severe drought currently Ethiopia is facing. In this period, crop growers, agro-pastoral and
semi-pastoral communities in Aba’ala district did not produce any crop. Despite the harsh
drought in 2015, cattle owners purchased much less hay and straw than they purchased in the
preceding years. This might be because of the reason that purchase of animal feed for whole
is costly and unaffordable to the locals, thereby, households opt to move their livestock to
eastern Afar in search of feed during drought times.

Table 4: Adaptation to climatic change through cattle feeding

Year Amount Produced in kg Amount Purchased in kg
Hay Straw Hay straw Formula feed
2011 214.69 1020.57 0 42.08 13.48
2012 166.39 986.83 0 12.78 7.76
2013 211.34 787.57 76.68 398.55 197.26
2014 242.87 826.58 196.75 681.01 374.85
2015 10.06 762.27 103.64 174.90 157.54

3.5.Major Effects of Various Adaptation Actions on Income of Households

Table 5 illustrates the effects of various adaptation measures on the income levels of the
respondents using fixed effect model. The basis of the model applied for this analysis stems
from the assertion that unobservable effects of households in the panel data are captured by
fixed effect model (Baltaji, 2005). The model controls for all time-invariant differences
between the individual farmers by correcting time-invariant characteristics. Hence, fixed
effect model was used to determine whether the application of several adaptation measures
had any effect on the income of the households. To ensure that the regression estimates
satisfy the minimum variance properties, we repeatedly checked model adequacy for the
fitted fixed effect model. It basically tests whether the unique errors (ui) are correlated with
the regressors and the null hypothesis claims that errors are not correlated with regressors.
Following Wooldridge (2002), the statistical justification for the use of the fixed effects
model over the random effects model was verified using the Hausman test which finally
indicated that the fixed effects model gave consistent estimates at 1% probability level and
the null hypothesis which claims no effect has been rejected. In the regression, some of the
major adaptation actions are found to contribute a decisive role in influencing the income
level of the households in the Afar, Aba’ala district. Among the major adaptation measures
are water harvesting, livestock diversification, migration, cattle restocking, hay production
and purchase of hay.

In dry-land regions like the Afar areas, access to water sources have positive effects on the
livelihoods of the community. The coefficient with respect to water harvesting actions against
income is positive and statistically significant at 5% probability level (Table 5). This shows
that households accessing to water sources are more likely to maintain their annual income in
the face of climate change. Delgado et al. (2011) asserted that water conservation is the basis
for agricultural productivity, without which, it would be unthinkable to feed the growing
population of our world. The key informants similarly highlighted about the necessity of
water sources for the Afar communities, wherein they are highly exposed to frequent
droughts and intense temperature. As reported by Tsegaye et al. (2013), most community
groups residing near Aba’ala town are better off comparing to the pastorals and semi-
pastorals. This is because there are some water streams, rivers and wells near the town, on
which nearby community members rely largely.

With regard to livestock diversification, it is found to have a significant relationship with

income level of households at 5% probability level (Table 5). Such positive association may
have an explanation that pursuance of households on diversified income strategies might
enable them to build their adaptive capacity in alleviating problems related to climatic risks
and uncertainties. Degefa (2005) reported that people that follow diversified income sources
are more likely to achieve sustainable livelihoods. In this context, diversified livestock
production in Aba’ala district of northern Afar is the common practice in terms of rearing
animals such as cattle, goats, sheep and camels.

Looking at Table 5, migration of pastorals and semi-pastorals is another variable expected to

influence the income level of the households that actually involved over the last five years.
The results obtained from the fixed effect regression indicate that migration of cattle owners
was positively and significantly related to their income level at 5% probability level. Among
the cattle owners that keep moving their cattle herds to potential areas, where animal feed can
be accessible the ones that used mobility as their permanent strategy got more income than
those did not migrate. In contrary to this finding, other researchers argue that pastoral mode
of life is an outdated system, which is currently in crisis (Markakis, 2004) owing to “Too
many people, few livestock”, which further created imbalances among humans, livestock and
the environment (Snadford, 2006b). However, recently reported research findings indicated
that pastoralists in western and eastern African countries have continued to respond to
climate related challenges successfully (Moritz et al., 2009).

In the north east of the Afar region, the occurrences of persistent droughts over the course of
many years have resulted in death of livestock herds. However, communities usually tend to
restock the number of their cattle when promising raining season is expected. Looking on
Table 5, cattle restocking in the study area was found to be statistically and positively
significant at 1% probability level in affecting the income level of the households. But, this
statistical report is not supported by local discussants. According to their explanation,
immediate restocking following to preceding drought can bring unnecessarily lose if another
drought comes by the next year. Local discussants went on to elucidate their experiences
what to do during restocking. Decision for livestock restocking depends on what type of
livestock breed should the individual opt to pursue and in which farming community
(pastoral, semi-pastoral, agro-pastoral and farming). Cattle restocking are more appropriate
by farming and agro-pastoral communities, where cattle are highly important for farm tilling.
On the other side, restocking camel and goat is more compatible when undertaken by
pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. This is because camels and goats can easily survive in harsh
environments via grazing and browsing leaves and tree branches. Thus, the effect of livestock
restocking on the income of the communities mainly requires prudent decisions where to be
done using what species.
Getting access to animal feed either through hay production or hay purchase was found to
have statistically and significantly positive effect on the income levels of the respondents at
5% and 1% probability levels respectively (Table 5). Compared to local respondents having
minimum access to hay stocking, cattle owners with a wider level of hay stocks are more
likely to feed their cattle, which in turn gives them high better income (Table 5).

Table 5: Effects of Adaptation Actions on Annual Income Using Fixed Effect Regression
Variables unit Coefficient Standard t
Error
Working experience in agriculture Year -19.9328 10.96683 1.82
Family size of the household Number -66.48029 138.1242 0.48
Family members whose age between 15 and Number 99.34005 136.3085 0.73
64 years
Family members whose age above 64 years Number 477.0332 456.9791 1.04
Access to water sources Dummy 1021.037 443.411 2.30**
Stocking fodder Dummy 253.9862 326.9086 0.76
Irrigation Access Dummy 274.8597 333.6605 0.82
Cropping Kg 167.835 263.043 0.64
Diversification Dummy 783.2368 337.6591 2.32**
Zero-grazing Dummy -176.0066 280.0474 0.63
Pasturing in own village Dummy 164.5703 275.2336 0.60
Use of selected breeds Dummy 214.3019 333.8805 0.64
Migration Dummy 976.0952 450.5405 2.17**
Forage production Kg 741.9497 412.1161 1.80
Restocking Kg 984.7472 330.822 2.98***
Destocking Kg 147.2765 289.8335 0.51
Number of cattle TLU -102.2118 61.6185 1.55
Timber production Number 146.8368 410.7294 0.36
Hay production Kg 0 .4613762 0.2204127 2.09**
Straw production Kg 0.1058963 0.0833971 1.27
Purchase of hay Kg 6.059224 2.253921 2.69***
Purchase of Straw Kg 959.9722 0.0833971 1.27
Purchase of Formula feed Kg 0.536117 1.242155 0.43
Lagyear Number 2.2711 7.3843 0.21
Constant 2647.221 721.0562 3.67
F(24, 312) = 219.40 Prob > F = 0.0000

III. Conclusions
The intention of this study was to make analysis on the effects of various adaptation actions
pursued by pastorals, semi-pastorals, agro-pastorals and mixed farming communities. While
responding the adverse effects of climatic change, the intertwined dependence among
different adaptation methods necessitated to explore the perception of households and to
verify whether various adaptation actions can bring about improved income sources. The
study revealed that repeated drought left the rural poor with crop failure due to lack of rain;
followed by herd decimation because of lack of animal feed. Majority of them perceived the
adverse effects of climate change in terms of rainfall variability, temperature change, and
lack of animal fodder, untimely raining and flooding, scarcity of water, shortage of human
food and drying of water sources.

The regression result of fixed effect model shows that adaptation methods such as cattle
management practices like water accessing schemes; fodder production, feed purchase,
livestock diversification and restocking have statistical and significant effect on the income of
the households. Moreover, the existing dependency of cattle owners on sales of firewood and
charcoal need to be replaced by providing them with sustainable income options such as
beekeeping, production of commercial trees (eucalyptus tree), fodder production, and cattle
fattening. Pursuing on such alternatives are environmentally compatible and better ways for
creating supplementary income sources using the hillside areas.

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