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Risk, Systems and Decisions

Myriam Merad
Benjamin D. Trump

Expertise
Under
Scrutiny
21st Century Decision Making for
Environmental Health and Safety
Risk, Systems and Decisions

Series Editors
Igor Linkov
U.S. Army ERDC, Vicksburg, MS, USA
Jeffrey Keisler
College of Management, University of Massachusetts
Boston, MA, USA
James H. Lambert
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
Jose Figueira
University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13439

Myriam Merad • Benjamin D. Trump

Expertise Under Scrutiny

21st Century Decision Making
for Environmental Health and Safety
Myriam Merad Benjamin D. Trump
Centre National de la Recherche US Army Corps of Engineers
Scientifique Engineer Research and Development Center
UMR ESPACE Concord, MA, USA
Paris, France

ISSN 2626-6717     ISSN 2626-6725 (electronic)

Risk, Systems and Decisions
ISBN 978-3-030-20530-0    ISBN 978-3-030-20532-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20532-4

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information
storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the
editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors
or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims
in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
From Myriam,
You used to say to me: “Why do you
challenge me so much in every
conversation?”
The tables have turned – now you have the
edge in all of our discussion.
To an exceptional man who has and will
always hold a unique enduring place in my
heart.

To Adel
From Benjamin,
For my mother, who taught me the value of
making good decisions, even when the path
down that road is a difficult one.
Foreword

It is easy to think that decision-making is a relatively simple task. After all, humans
by default make hundreds of decisions a day – what to wear, what to eat, and many
other daily tasks. However, organizations are often faced with situations where
making good decisions is a task wrought with uncertainty and the potential for loss.
Unlike repetitive decisions we are making daily, policy decision-makers often find
themselves in uncharted waters where new problems emerge without well-­
understood precedents. In these situations, the approach taken to triage one’s
decision-­making needs can make all the difference between mission success and
organizational disaster.
This work by Drs. Myriam Merad and Benjamin Trump tackles a critical compo-
nent of the decision-making challenge facing many actors in the government and
industry – the role of expertise in informing the decision-making process and
addressing risk inherent within organizational activities. Far from being a simple
task, the process of decision-making in areas such as environmental health and
safety or technology governance is one that requires deliberative thought regarding
the type of expertise needed to craft legitimate, accurate, and institutionally accept-
able solutions. Merad and Trump address this emerging need by meticulously
reviewing the drivers of risk-informed decision-making, as well as the various strat-
egies to onboard expertise and judgment to craft and implement good policies.
As a civil servant in government, I see Merad and Trump’s work as immediately
relevant to a variety of risky, contentious, and high-visibility decisions that we face
which have the potential to incur widespread benefits or harms to the public. They
go into specific detail regarding areas of increasing contestation and risk to govern-
ments and organizations in Europe, the United States, and many other areas around
the globe. Later, they demonstrate how decision support tools, such as multi-criteria
decision analysis, can serve as an additional crutch to structure and comparatively
evaluate value trade-offs within complex decision environments – something neces-
sary in situations where a scientific defense of one’s decision-making process is a
political and institutional necessity.

vii
viii Foreword

Far from being a simple process, organizational decision-making is a task with

high stakes and the potential for significant losses if undertaken improperly.
Merad and Trump outline how organizations might better deal with these situations
and bolster their perceived legitimacy and competency among the public in the
process of doing so. This book will be of great value for academics and practitioners
in the field.

Igor Linkov, PhD.

Team Lead, Risk and Decision Science Team
US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center
AAAS Fellow
Acknowledgments

The topics on which we choose to write are never neutral. We were both fortunate
to grow up in a family of senior civil servants, professionals, and researchers (uni-
versity hospital) in which the notions or values, such as “professional integrity,”
“awareness of the common and public interest,” as well as “concern for alterity,”
were the core guiding principles. We are honored and grateful for exposure to those
ideas at an early age – they are certainly difficult to learn, but pay dividends in our
own professional careers.
Beyond their personal ethics, many practitioners and specialists abide by respec-
tive professional oaths (e.g., the Hippocratic oath, the Galien oath, the magistrates’
oath).
In our profession of risk analysis, we were surprised to discover that no such
oaths or creeds exist – at least as a universally agreed-upon code of conduct.
Certainly, there was the Archimedes’ oath, yet few people in our professional orbits
are aware of it, let alone swear by it. The idea of ethics and validity within the exper-
tise processes is nonetheless essential for the hundreds of agencies and thousands of
professionals and policymakers that make use of risk science – we hope that this
book highlights these needs and demonstrates how valid and just decision-making
might be grounded in ethics, transparency, and clear professionalism.
In framing these ideas, we are indebted to our friends and colleagues that have
inspired and motivated us.
The first is Nicolas Dechy. Once Myriam had the book project in mind, Nicolas
was the one who challenged her the most on the subject.
We are grateful to Michel Llory for our long discussions and for his recommen-
dations all along. His experience and his famous statement “what should we think
about all this?” is a question that any writer must face and address.
Dominique Guionnet, Mohamed Boudalaa, and André Cicolella were valuable
colleagues and friends. They have in common, in addition to a high scientific qual-
ity, a professional and moral integrity that are commendable and admirable.
Claude Hansen, Guy Planchette, and Paul Carriot provided a valuable advice and
guidance. We are also grateful to André Lannoy and Yves Merian, who read early
editions of our text – we are grateful for their time and support.

ix
x Acknowledgments

We are grateful for George Siharulidze and Joshua Trump’s patience and tenacity
in editing and reviewing this work.
Many thanks to Igor Linkov. He is a precious friend who knows the value of the
long game and is an irreplaceable mentor and guide. We are also thankful for José
Palma-Oliveira, who is the ultimate sounding board and Renaissance man of our
times.
We also give thanks to the US Army Corps of Engineers, which supports Dr.
Trump and his research. We are both also grateful for the support of our friends at
the Society for Risk Analysis, which inspired not only out ideas but our very col-
laboration as coauthors.
This book, however, would not have been possible without the support and fund-
ing of the French Ministry of Environment and the French National Scientific
Research Center, CNRS.
Our deep gratitude is due to all of our friends and institutions for making this
possible.
Contents

Part I Unpacking the Decision Making Process

1 The Challenge of Making Good Decisions��������������������������������������������    3
2 About Expertise Problems: Decision Making Challenges
in a Contentious Environment���������������������������������������������������������������� 11
Risks and Uncertainties������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 13
Different Categories of Risks: About Negatives and Positives������������������ 15
Different Management, Governance, and Regulatory Principles�������������� 19
Resilience and the Unknown��������������������������������������������������������������������� 23
About Foresight in Risk-Based Approaches���������������������������������������������� 26
Learning from Risks and Resilience-Based Approaches �������������������������� 28
3 Actors and Experts in the Decision Making Process���������������������������� 33
The Decision-Maker and the Concept of a “Contract”������������������������������ 33
The Analyst, the Expert, and Expertise������������������������������������������������������ 37
Actors, Stakeholders, and Democratic Frameworks���������������������������������� 43
Knowing: About Knowledge, Beliefs, and Perceptions���������������������������� 46
The Expertise Problems Formulation: Four
Preliminary Questions���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 46
The Taxonomy of Knowledge and Information������������������������������������ 49
The Interactions as a Learning Process�������������������������������������������������� 50
4 Critical Challenges and Difficulties in Safety, Security,
Environment and Health: Why Are We So Bad at Managing
SSEH Problems?�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 55
Some Theoretical and Political Contextual Indications About
Risk in the Field of Safety, Security, Environment- Health (SSEH) �������� 60
Safety and Reliability���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 61
Complex Systems���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 61
The Environment and Stakeholder Participation: Rio’s
Turning Point ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 62

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