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Henry Kissinger
This page intentionally left blank
 HENRY
KISSINGER
Perceptions of
International
Politics

HARVEY STARR

THE UNIVERSITY PRESS OF KENTUCKY

Copyright © 1984 by The University Press of Kentucky

Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth,

serving Bellarmine College, Berea College, Centre
College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University,
The Filson Club, Georgetown College, Kentucky
Historical Society, Kentucky State University,
Morehead State University, Murray State University,
Northern Kentucky University, Transylvania University,
University of Kentucky, University of Louisville,
and Western Kentucky University.

Editorial and Sales Offices: Lexington, Kentucky 40506-0024

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Starr, Harvey.
Henry Kissinger: perceptions of international politics.
Inc! udes index.
l. Kissinger, Henry, 1923- 2. United States-
Foreign Relations-1945- 3. World politics-
1945- I. Title.
E840.8.K58S73 1983 327.73 83-16747

ISBN: 978-0-8131-5463-3
To JOHN V. GILLESPIE
in recognition of
his support for this project
This page intentionally left blank
 Contents

List of Illustrations ix
List of Tables Xl

Acknowledgments xiii

Part I. Henry Kissinger: Biographical and Psychological Study

1. The Study of Henry Kissinger: Why and How 3
2. A Biographical and Psychohistorical Overview 16
3. Kissinger's Operational Code 44

Part II. Images of the Soviet Union and China:

A Content-Analytic Study 75
4. Introduction: Operational Code and Content Analysis 77
5. Research Design 82
6. Perceptions of the Soviet Union: Kissinger and Dulles 94
7. Perceptions of the Soviet Union and China 107
8. The Superpower Triad: Perceptions and Behavior 123
9. The Context of Perceptions and Behavior 143
10. A World Perceived: Conclusions 158
Appendix: The Use of Content Analysis 163
Notes 174
Index 201
This page intentionally left blank
 Illustrations

1. The use of content analysis to compare the content of

communications 85
2. Dulles's perceptions of the Soviet Union 103
3. Kissinger's perceptions of the Soviet Union 105
4. Trends in general evaluation scores for the Soviet Union and
China 112
5. Trends in hostility scores for the Soviet Union and China 113
6. Trends in Kissinger's perceptions of China, 1971-1976 119
7. Hypotheses of expected relationships between perceptions
and behavior 132
8. Cold war and detente: Goldmann's analysis of tension
fluctuations 149
This page intentionally left blank
 Tables

1. Some "cognitive process" approaches to decision making 12-13

2. Documentary basis for evaluative assertion analysis:
Kissinger's public statements 89
3. Kissinger's public statements with evaluative assertions 90
4. Assertions used in the Kissinger evaluative assertion
analysis 92
5. Dulles and Kissinger: Assertions about the Soviet Union by
category 93
6. General evaluation and hostility scores for Dulles and
Kissinger on the Soviet Union 98
7. Correlations between perceptions of hostility and percep-
tions of capabilities and success: Dulles's and Kissinger's
images of the Soviet Union 101
8. General evaluation and hostility correlations: Dulles and
Kissinger view the Soviet Union 102
9. Perceptions of the Soviet Union and China-Three-month
aggregations 110
10. Perceptions of the Soviet Union and China-Half-year and
yearly aggregations 111
11. Soviet-Chinese comparisons, based on averages of three-
month aggregation scores 114
12. Correlations between perceptions of the Soviet Union and
China 118
13. Perceptions of China: General evaluations and hostility
correlations 120
14. Perceptions of China: Correlations of general evaluation
and hostility with capabilities and success 121
15. Azar-Sloan scale of inter-nation events and weighted values 127
16. Events-data variables 133
17. Correlations: Kissinger's perceptions of the Soviet Union
and subsequent U.S. behavior toward the Soviet Union 134
18. Correlations: Kissinger's perceptions of China and
subsequent U.S. behavior toward China 135
19. Correlations: Chinese behavior toward the United States
and subsequent evaluative assertions by Kissinger 136
20. Correlations: Soviet behavior toward the United States and
subsequent evaluative assertions by Kissinger 137
21. Correlations: Soviet behavior toward the United States and
Kissinger's subsequent evaluative assertions about China 137
22. Correlations: Chinese behavior toward the United States
and Kissinger's subsequent evaluative assertions about the
Soviet Union 139
23. Correlations: Kissinger's perceptions of the Soviet Union
and subsequent U.S. behavior toward China 140
24. Correlations: Kissinger's perceptions of China and
subsequent U.S. behavior toward the Soviet Union 141
25. Events only: Correlations for U.S.-Soviet and U.S.-Chinese
events-data variables 145
26. Correlations between U.S. behavior toward the Soviet
Union and behavior toward China 146
27. Events only: Correlations between Soviet/Chinese behavior
toward the U.S. and U.S. behavior toward the other
Communist power 147
28. U.S. behavior toward the Soviet Union and China,
1948-1973 150
29. Soviet and Chinese behavior toward the U.S., 1948-1973 151
30. Effect of role change on perceptions 153
31. Time-series analysis of effect of role change 154
32. Kissinger's perceptions under Nixon and Ford 156
A.l. Evaluative assertions by document type 167
A.2 Difference of means tests: Comparisons among prepared,
extemporaneous, and Congressional hearings documents 168-69
A.3 Comparison of assertions by location 170-71
 Acknowledgments

A number of acknowledgments must be made to the individuals and

institutions without whose support this research would not have been
possible. Special thanks and appreciation are owed to John V. Gillespie,
whose unflagging interest in this project was instrumental to its pursuit.
This book is dedicated to his memory.
The Center for International Policy Studies at Indiana University,
under Grant 750-0514 from the Ford Foundation, provided support for
this research through a Faculty Research Seed Grant and a Supplemen-
tary Research Grant. A number of other typing and reproduction ser-
vices have also been afforded to me by the center. Additional monetary
support was provided by Indiana University through a Summer Faculty
Fellowship. I would also like to thank Professor Edward E. Azar, then
at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and now at the
University of Maryland, for generously providing events data from the
Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB). The Indiana University
Department of Political Science Data Laboratory, under Director Ron-
ald Weber, also provided assistance in data preparation, keypunching,
and programming. Finally, in offering me a Leverhulme Fellowship, the
Department of Politics of the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, pro-
vided me with a congenial setting for drafting major portions of the
original manuscript.
I would also like to acknowledge my great debt to Professor Ole R.
Holsti, who afforded me invaluable guidance at a number of points
during the course of this research. Numerous colleagues at Indiana
University and elsewhere provided comments on earlier drafts and pre-
sentations, copies of their own papers on various aspects of this work,
and encouragement. To begin to name all these people would be to risk
omitting some. You all know who you are, and have my heartfelt thanks.
In the end, it was the help of William Jerome Crouch, editor of the
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