Chaos Complexity Theory and Education Po
Chaos Complexity Theory and Education Po
Happy M. KAYUNI
University of Malawi, Republic of Malawi
5
1. Introduction
The Ministry of Education, Science and Technology is one of the larg-
est in Malawi and over the years it has been experiencing numerous chal-
lenges that have largely been analyzed in the academic literature (Kayuni &
Tambulasi, 2007; Rose, 2003a, 2003b).1,2) In order to among other things, en-
hance participation and improve secondary school access, Community Day
Secondary Schools (CDSS) were established in 1998. However, this move led
to a “crisis” in the secondary school education especially in the areas of qual-
ity and relevance of the education being provided. The available literature lim-
its the discussion over the issue to micro policy implications; hence it does not
extend this analysis to the wider system policy theory domain. The paper in-
troduces the chaos-complex policy theory in order to contextualize this CDSS
policy decision. Chaos theory argues that in most complex systems, despite a
seemingly chaotic and confusing scenario, there are patterns of order which
are achieved in the zone of what is referred to as “edge of chaos”- this is
where they best deliver. In this case, from a casual observation, public policies
applied to complex systems may be deemed to have failed when in reality
there is a self-regulation scheme in operation that ultimately assists the system
to deliver. On the whole, the paper argues and demonstrates that the Malawi
education policies have to a larger extent driven the education system to the
“edges of chaos” where it is arguably “thriving”.
In order to enhance clarity of the paper and provide a proper setting,
the paper starts by analyzing the concept of chaos-complexity theory and this
is followed by a discussion on the global context of education policy and re-
form as well as policy making in democratic Malawi. The third section ana-
lyzes the education policy in Malawi after 1994 and establishment of Com-
munity Day Secondary Schools followed by a critical analysis of the policy
crisis/chaos within the Community Day Secondary School sector. Before con-
cluding, the last section provides the underlying order within this crisis.
6
2. Chaos-complexity theory
Although the chaos-complexity phase in policy analysis can be traced
back to some years before mid 1990’s, its impact has largely been recognized
in the 2000’s. Taking into consideration the multiplicity of policy actors, it
became clear to most policy analysts that the policy environment is more
complex, unpredictable and confusing akin to chaos. However, the chaos-
complexity theory gives an “appreciation, not distrust of chaos and of uncer-
tainty, stressful times” and it further stresses that “real change and new struc-
tures are found in the very chaos they [managers or policy makers] try to pre-
vent” (Overman, 1996).
In order to fully appreciate the relevance of chaos-complexity theory a
brief analysis of the development of the concept as well as its relation to sys-
tems theory, and finally, unpredictability and crisis is discussed below.
7
of the system. Therefore, “chaos is a system theory that attempts to understand
the behavior of nonlinear, unpredictable systems” (Bechtold, 1997). Origi-
nally, the concept was successfully applied in the natural sciences such as
chemistry, biology and physics so as to enhance understanding of certain
emerging trends in those fields. Over the years it was also noted that most so-
cial science disciplines tend to be confronted with characteristics of non-linear
and unpredictable phenomenon. Consequently “this recognition has led to a
surge of interest in applying chaos theory to a number of fields” (Levy, 1994)
and these include international relations, economics, management, education
and policy analysis.
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policy systems are in a state of disequilibrium which leads to a seemingly
chaotic situation. In this way, chaos theory is an evolutionary system theory.
The link between chaos and complexity is a little bit tricky as it dwells
much on an abstract academic construct. This is complicated by the fact that
“the literature on complexity science gives little detail to understanding “com-
plexity” itself (Medd, 2004). This is even clear when it is noted that there is
“difficulty of giving definitions and measurements of complexity” (Medd,
2004). Consequently the link between chaos and complexity has always been
problematic. However, Luhmann (in Medd, 2004) argues that “we live in a
world in which it is not possible to connect the totality of anything”. The link
with complexity comes about because chaos “sees a system as continuously
transforming itself to a higher level of complexity, making changes that are
irreversible”; in this case, “though a dynamic system may appear to be cha-
otic, its identity, history, and sense of purpose (strange attractor) define its
boundaries and guide its evolution and growth” (Bechtold, 1997). As Cohen
& Stewart (1994) suggest “one of the great surprises of chaos theory is the
discovery of totally new simplicities, deep universal patterns concealed within
the erratic behaviour of chaotic dynamical systems.” Specifically, complexity
is ultimately achieved when a dynamic system which is self-organizing (in
how it orders and structures itself) grow and change.
The assumed progression in chaos-complexity theory is that a policy
system starts at an optimistic level of high predictability and “as the predict-
ability horizon is approached, however, small uncertainties will begin to creep
into the system which will tend to bend or distort the rules on which we base
our predictions”; ultimately “the uncertainties will be self accelerating and
lead, inevitably, to a point of rapid transition into chaos” (Bechtold, 1997).
The edge of chaos is somewhere between order and disorder or between a
chaotic and complex situation (Cloete, 2004). According to chaos-complexity
theory, this is the best scenario for an organisation or policy system because
9
there is a higher degree of “creativity and innovativeness” (Praught, 2004)
hence the term “thriving on the edges of chaos”. Bechtold (1997) aptly de-
scribes this situation by arguing that
[A] system betters itself, creates its own future, and continuously
adapts to its environment based on its intelligence and information.
For this, it needs to tap not only its more stable parts but also those
at the “edge of chaos” that are chaotic or even dissipative. Through
the freedom of operating with an open flow of information from its
“edge,” it stays connected to its simultaneously evolving environ-
ment and enhances its ability to handle environmental changes.
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2.3 Unpredictability and crisis: the core processes in chaos-
complexity
In relation to policy changes, Parsons (1995) argues “the student of
public policy faces a complex and contradictory body of analysis”. Grindle &
Thomas (1991) add that “all policy choices thus involve uncertainty and risk”.
This uncertainty and risk is heightened by the fact public policy analysis is
shrouded in what Nagel & Treaser (2004) call three methodological problems.
These three methodological problems are: (a) complexity which leads to prob-
lems associated with multiple conflicting criteria and conditions of multidi-
mensional measurement; (b) uncertainty of the consequences of current deci-
sions; (c) effectuality or how to ably communicate in a persuasive manner
hence convince public policy makers. Based on the three observations by Na-
gel & Treaser, uncertainty is probably the commonest problem that policy
makers and analysts are confronted with. Taking into consideration the asser-
tion by chaos-complex theory that even a small change in the policy “can have
big effects that will result in unexpected outcomes as complex systems change
overtime” the manifestation of a crisis can not be underestimated. Referring to
change in the American policymaking, True et al. (1999) initially claim that
“stasis, rather than crisis, typically characterizes most policy areas”, but they
later admit that “however, crises often occur”. Embedded in this crisis is
chaos. In the context of post-secondary education system in USA and Canada,
Kershaw & Safford (1998) state that “chaos appears to reign” and this state
will “best be understood with reference to chaos theory”.
Crisis forms a critical element in policy process and according to
chaos theory, crisis ushers an institution or the policy issue to be rightly
placed: on the edges of chaos. Grindle & Thomas (1991) argue that “if elites
perceive a crisis…the issue will command the attention of senior policy mak-
ers” and in this case “their decisions are likely to be more radical or innova-
tive than when a crisis does not exist, and action will often come quite
11
quickly”. On the other hand they add that “if there is no perception of crisis,
the stakes for government are lower”. In relation to the education sector, this
is why “the science of chaos tells us that signs of disorder might well be signs
that the system of education is healthy and on its way to a much improved
new order” (Sullivan, 1999).
12
ing role in influencing the development of educational policy (Lauglo 1996, p.
221). Above all, other donor agencies often tend to rely on the research find-
ings of the World Bank to develop their own funding criteria (Lauglo 1996).
The process of developing education policies can be said to follow three
stages which are theoretical development, experimentation and finally gener-
alisation (Ruperez, 2003). To a larger extent, the World Bank in developing
countries seems to have powerful control of the theoretical development of
educational policy. It is often seen in terms of “international expert.” Conse-
quently, “on some debates about education, the signals broadcast from the
agency (i.e., World Bank) perspective are so powerful, it is difficult to hear
the local voices at all” (King, 1991).
13
approaches have failed to bring about positive change in education hence calls
for decentralisation in the education system.
However, the World Bank’s policies in education have been the sub-
ject of criticism from several quarters. It is not surprising therefore that “the
views of the Bank on many matters in the education sector, and on Third
World economies more generally, are highly controversial” (King, 1991).
14
pers and the Poverty Alleviation Paper (PAP). The Malawi Vision 20:20’s
section 1.5.3 points out that one of its strategic challenges is “how to
strengthen self-reliance and community participation in local development
programmes”. Section 1.5.10 of Education Policy Investment Framework
(PIF) mentions that “The Ministry will thus encourage the strengthening of
the participation of parents and other local stakeholders in the financing and
governance of individual schools…” However, when the policy was being
formulated, key stakeholders such as parents, local NGOs, Teachers, and
School Committees were not adequately consulted (Rose, 2003b). Some of the
objectives of the Poverty Alleviation Paper (PAP) are: “to improve the access
of the poor to priority services and to enhance the capacities of the local
communities in managing development” but in keeping with similar docu-
ments elsewhere that are part of SAP policies, little in the rhetoric suggests
that the burden of payment is to be placed on the poor/rural recipients of the
policy.
15
Secondary Schools was as follows: (i) all DECs would henceforth be known
as Community Day Secondary Schools (CDSSs); all CDSSs would fall under
the Ministry of Education, as do conventional secondary schools, and not un-
der the Malawi College of Distance Education; (ii) ultimately, student selec-
tion for CDSSs would be on the same basis as students to other normal secon-
dary schools; due to time constraints the intakes for Form 1 students in 1999
would be selected by the MOE but in subsequent years selection would be
phased to the district level with direct community involvement within the dis-
trict in the selection process; (iii) the Ministry of Education would begin the
deployment of Diploma and graduate teachers to the CDSSs; (iv) all CDSSs
would be provided with financial assistance to enable them to obtain basic in-
structional materials packages on the understanding that communities would
also contribute towards the purchase of such materials; (v) permission to open
a CDSS would be granted only if MOE standards are strictly followed; (vi)
standardized management and financial systems would become mandatory for
all CDSS and conventional secondary schools; (vii) this move to convert the
former DECs into the new CDSSs, would have a continued emphasis on
community involvement in schools.4)
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challenges in the education sector emerging from previous policy initiatives.
Specifically, the MGDS5) states that:
[S]ome decisions which have been taken over the past few years,
have negatively affected the quality and relevance of the education
being provided. The sudden declaration of the Free Primary Edu-
cation Policy, the conversion of the former Distance Education
Centres (DECs) to Community Day Secondary Schools (CDSS)
and the use of untrained and under qualified teachers in the system
due to inadequate number of professionally qualified teachers, af-
fected the quality of education at both primary and secondary lev-
els.
17
greatly involved in the school development activities” (MacJessie-Mbewe
2004a). Among other studies, two studies by Rose (2003a; 2003b); see also
note 2; stand out as authoritative in relation to Malawi community participa-
tion in education. From these studies it can be deduced that some of the prob-
lems that have emerged in this participatory approach include: non-
empowerment of women, exploitation in the participation process, misunder-
standing of the difference between participatory democracy and representative
democracy and lack of clear guidance and training on participation.
18
6.1.2 Lack of clear guidance and training on participation
Community participation largely depends on school committees. How-
ever, there is no clear guidance of what committee members are supposed to
do and they also lack appropriate training (Rose, 2003a). In some cases stu-
dents have failed to attend school due to inability to make development “con-
tributions” by their parents. Parents/communities are often not involved in de-
ciding about their contribution how the funds are to be spent. Partially funded
school projects by externally institutions such as MASAF do not enhance par-
ticipation because the communities regard them as burdensome when they
demand the communities to honour their contributions.
Rose (2003a) argues that community school committees are not di-
rectly involved in school affairs and only limit themselves to “development
work” and even in these development works, it is teachers who decide what
has to be done; thus community members are not genuinely involved in deci-
sion- making.
19
6.1.4. Misunderstanding of the difference between participatory de-
mocracy and representative democracy
There is lack of interest in communities in participation of school or
other development activities after the 1994 democratic elections due to a mis-
understanding of the difference between participatory democracy and repre-
sentative democracy. As Rose (2003a) puts it, “people feel that, through par-
ticipating in elections, they have passed responsibilities for schooling to those
they have elected”.
20
6.3. Increased dropout in the number students and decline in the num-
ber of qualified teachers
The Centre for Educational Research and Training (CERT)1) points out
that the number of CDSSs students by 2004 had significantly declined by
20.9%. The main reason for the dropout is that parents and guardians are less
willing to send their children to these schools which are generally viewed as
of mediocre state. Apparently, when some students are selected to these
schools, parents opt for particular private schools where standards are seen to
be far much better than CDSSs.
21
More importantly, the school structures themselves are often constructed by
community members without serious regard to quality hence they end-up ap-
pearing as “temporary” structures. Most of them don’t have a library, recrea-
tion or sanitation facilities. A study by Volunteers Service Organization
(VSO)8) captures this scenario as articulated below:
Despite the crisis and chaos in the Malawi education system as high-
lighted above, there is demonstration that the system is moving towards a self
regulating mechanism which will ultimately create an orderly complex educa-
tion system. These positive moves towards underlying order are: Decentraliza-
tion of the education sector; Construction of boarding facilities for girls in
some CDSS; Increase in the number of tertiary teacher training institutions;
Established the Teacher Service Commission and increased programmes for
teachers’ welfare; Political commitment and significant budgetary allocation
to the education sector; Increased access to secondary school education; Im-
proved management through cluster system.
22
7.1. Decentralization of the education sector
23
of 7 schools.9) These hostels are going to be built in CDSSs and will be ac-
commodating 420 female students. All this is inline with the MGDSs’ key
strategy in education to “Improve the teaching-learning environment to reduce
absenteeism, repetition and dropout rates for both sexes.”5)
24
institutions to undergo further training (Masters and PhD studies) and this has
undertaking has greatly improved the capacity of the said institutions.
Lack of teachers’ welfare has been one of the main reasons why most
of them have been abandoning their profession (especially at secondary school
level). The government recently established the Teacher Service Commission
so as to ensure that the welfare of teachers is adequately addressed. The com-
mission is responsible for among other things the recruitment, promotion, dis-
cipline and analyzing the conditions of service of all government teachers in
the country. Previously, these issues were handled by the Civil Service Com-
mission. The problems that were commonly being experienced by teachers is
that the civil service had overgrown to the extent that the welfare of teachers
were being neglected or overlooked. In November 2008, the government se-
cured a K7 billion (USD 50million) World Bank loan to construct 1,000
teachers’ houses across the country.10) The government also set in the
2007/2008 budget some money “to pay all arrears to teachers to uplift morale
and that HIV positive teachers, numbering 3,000 would be getting K4,000 ex-
tra money each month.”11)
25
laboratories.10) This is a major breakthrough for the CDSS that have dilapi-
dated and archaic infrastructure. In the State of Nation Address in May 2008
under the theme, “Malawi: A Nation of Achiever”, the President recognized
the important role that education plays in national development. Among other
things, he promised: upgrade teachers to Diploma, Bachelors or Masters de-
gree levels; and construct hostels at 10 girls secondary schools.12) In the
2007/8 budget, the government set apart some funds “for hardship allowances
for teachers as a way of luring them back in public schools.”11)
26
participation he focused on two indicators: the extent to which the PTA as-
sisted the school projects as well as disciplining of students.
27
there are now more opportunities for context specific education policy imple-
mentation within the said decentralized sector.
Fourth, unlike in the past, there is an increased public interest, aware-
ness and participation in the education sector. This general public inter-
est/debate on education policies is mainly generated by the socio-political
controversies surrounding the education policies themselves. The media has
also significantly contributed to this debate.
Finally, since the Education Act of 1962, there was no strategy for
community participation but recently there has been a development of a Na-
tional Strategy for Community Participation in School Management. One pos-
sible factor for the development of this strategy is the general chaos that en-
sued soon after the implementation of free primary education and CDSS pol-
icy.
NOTES
1. Centre for Educational Research and Training (CERT): Issues in the Edu-
cation System of Malawi: Evidence from Research. Paper submitted to Ministry of
Education, March 2005.
2. Rose, P. (2003). Communities, gender and education: evidence from sub-
Saharan Africa.
http://portal.unesco.org/education/en/file_download.php/557aa4c1cc008d3a0807fc336b40c3e
dCommunities,+gender+and+education.+Evidence+from+sub-Saharan+Africa.doc
3. http://www.see-educoop.net/education_in/pdf/15_62.pdf
4. Secondary School Teacher Education Project (SSTEP). Community Day
Secondary School Policy. New Bulletin, June, 2000.
5. Malawi Growth and Development Strategy. Volume 1, Lilongwe: OPC.
6. Education Statistics 2007 Malawi. Lilongwe: Ministry of Education, Sci-
ence and Technology.
7. Malawi News, February – March, 2007 (D. Mmana).
8. Volunteers Service Organization (VSO). What makes teachers tick? A pol-
icy research report on teachers “Motivation in Developing Countries”, 2002.
28
9. Melawi News, 9-14, June, 2007 (D. Mmana).
10. Civil Society Coalition for Quality Basic Education (CSCQBE). Press
Release: Any vision/dream about national prosperity should start with adequate in-
vestment in the education sector, 2008.
11. Daily Times, 17 July, 2008.
12. Weekend Nation, 7-8 June, 2008.
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* Happy M. Kayuni,
Political and Administrative Studies Department,
Chancellor College,
University of Malawi,
P.O. Box 280, Zomba, Malawi
E-Mail: [email protected]
31