Crime Analysis

Introduction

IACA defines crime analysis as the use of qualitative and quantitative techniques to analyze

data that is valuable to police agencies and communities. As evident from the definition,

crime analysis is a much broader term that entails more than just analyzing crimes. It also

entails analysis of criminals, crime victims, quality of life issues, and internal police

operations. Also, crime analysis is not solely an anecdotal method, as it is a theory-based

approach that involves the application of both qualitative and quantitative data and methods.

Some of the popular qualitative and quantitative methods often used by crime analysts to

analyze data include field research, content analysis, and statistical analyses of numerical

data. Although crime analysts often analyze different kinds of data related to crime and

disorder, the three major ones are sociodemographic, spatial, and temporal.

Thesis:

This paper explores the concept of crime analysis in law enforcement by explaining why

multiple theories of crime are often used for crime analysis, summarizes two theories

related to it, and explains when it is and when it is not appropriate to use each one of

them, and summarizes the findings of four published academic research related to these

two theories.

Reasons for Multiple Theories of Crimes

One of the main reasons why there are multiple theories of crime that are used for crime

analysis is that offenders are often motivated by different factors. As a process, crime analysis

often seeks to explain crime incidents from the perspective of a motivated offender (Santos,

2022). As a result, crime analysts often focus on why individuals have already chosen to

commit crimes. Since there is no single cause for why people engage in criminal conduct,
they are often forced to rely on multiple theories of crime. For example, while there are

people who partake in crime because of poverty, others do so because of influences from

delinquent peers and substance abuse. Over the years, scholars have developed multiple

theories to explain how such factors lead individuals to engage in criminal acts. As a result,

crime analysts often use different theories of crime in their analysis, which is often dependent

on the factors that motivated offenders to engage in their respective criminal conduct.

Another reason multiple theories are used for crime analysis is the multifaceted nature of

crime. For example, the reasons why people engage in crime extend beyond individual

choices, as such behaviors can be caused by social and environmental structures. As a result,

crime analysts often require an understanding of how individual, meso, and macro-level

factors influence crime, which are often explained using different theories (Khan, 2024). As a

result, crime analysts often rely on multiple theories of crime in crime analysis. Furthermore,

crime analysis is a broad concept, practice, and profession that extends beyond simply

analyzing crime in communities. That is why crime analysts are often tasked with supporting

all major functions within police agencies. Due to the broad nature of crime analysis and the

diverse roles that crime analysts are expected to fulfil in law enforcement, multiple theories

of crime are often used in crime analysis.

Summary of Theories

Routine Activity Theory

One theory that is popularly used in crime analysis is the routine activity theory, which was

first proposed by Lawrence E. Cohen and Marcus Felson in 1979. Based on the theory, the

three elements that must converge for crime to occur are a motivated offender, a suitable

target, and the absence of a capable guardian. By focusing on such factors, the routine

activity theory shifts the focus of crime analysis from offenders’ background and personal
characteristics to the role that situational factors play in the occurrence of crimes. Apart from

situational factors, the routine activity theory further emphasizes that social circles, also

popularly referred to as handlers in the theory, are other main factors that influence people to

commit a crime. As a result, having 'place managers' tasked with safeguarding locations is

considered one of the best interventions for deterring crime. In leveraging the routine activity

theory in crime analysis, crime analysts often focus on analyzing routine activities of

motivated offenders, victims, and guardians, such as law enforcement and security measures

in the community.

Rational Choice Theory

The rational choice theory is another popular theory in criminology that is usually used in

crime analysis. It is a crime theory based on the argument that people who commit crimes

usually make these choices based on the anticipated risks and rewards they are likely to

experience from such acts. Based on the theory, people are rational beings. As a result, they

often partake in crime after a logical thought process in which they weigh the benefits and

risks of engaging in criminal activities. When individuals believe that the cost of engaging in

criminal activities outweighs their risks and costs, they engage in such acts. In crime

mapping, crime analysts often apply the rational choice theory by analyzing the decision-

making processes of offenders in relation to opportunities and risks to understand their true

motives. Also, crime analysts often apply the rational choice theory to understand why

offenders target specific locations in communities and to determine the best situational

strategies to mitigate crime in the identified areas.

Studies and Explanations

Literature reveals that it is appropriate to use routine activity theory to understand the fear of

cybercrime in communities. This is evident from Cook et al. (2023), who examined the fear
of cybercrime across Europe through the multilevel application of the routine activity theory.

The authors analyzed the 2018 Eurobarometer Cybersecurity Survey, and their findings

supported some of the main assumptions of RAT. For example, the study's findings revealed

that routine online activities and frequent use of online banking influence individuals' fear of

economic cybercrime as they increase their risk of converging with offenders and

victimization. Also, the findings of this research revealed that country-level factors, such as

poor ICT infrastructure development, income inequality, and poor online guardship measures,

heighten individual fear of economic cybercrime and victimization. Such findings not only

align with RAT’s assumption about how situational routines interact with crime but also

demonstrate the applicability of this theory in understanding cybercrimes and criminals.

On the other hand, literature also reveals that there are certain situations where it is not

appropriate to use routine activity theory in crime analysis. For example, Parti (2023)

conducted academic research to compare fraud victim group characteristics using the routine

activity theory. The sample groups of the study were younger fraud victims aged between 18

years and 54 years and older fraud victims aged 55 years and above, who had been victims of

fraud. One important finding of the study was that victims’ personal characteristics were

important in analyzing and understanding victimization processes in complex modern crimes,

such as online and telephone fraud, especially where vulnerable populations are involved,

such as elderly people. Since RAT core components often shift the focus of crime analysis

from individual backgrounds and personal characteristics to situational factors, it is usually

unsuitable for crime analysis processes involving complex modern crimes and vulnerable

populations. Also, RAT is based on the assumption that a capable guardian's presence can

help mitigate crime and protect victims from offenders. However, Parti's findings revealed

that even with the presence of capable guardians such as anti-virus software, web camera

covers, and credit card monitoring, older people were still more likely to be victims of fraud.
The article emphasizes that such limitations of a capable guardian can only be understood

through case-based investigations that evaluate people's socio-economic backgrounds, which

makes the use of RAT in such scenarios inappropriate.

Rational Choice Theory

Just like the RAT, there is literature that highlights when it is appropriate to use rational

choice theory in crime analysis. For example, Zhao et al. (2020) revealed that the rational

choice theory is appropriate for understanding juvenile offender decision-making processes.

The participants of the study were juvenile offenders incarcerated in China. Based on the

findings of the study, juvenile offenders in China often paid more attention to the benefits of

engaging in criminal activities, such as theft and fighting, than to the costs. It was apparent

from the findings of this study that benefit calculation was the core factor that influenced

juvenile offenders to engage in criminal acts. Such insights reveal that rational choice is an

appropriate theory for understanding how juveniles rationally make decisions to engage in

crime when they are presented with opportunities and risks. In most instances, benefit

calculation determines whether juvenile offenders will or will not engage in criminal

activities in their environments.

Literature also indicates that there are certain scenarios where using rational choice theory in

crime analysis might be inappropriate. For example, Nagy and Groves (2021) conducted

academic research to investigate whether contract cheating as a crime results from rational

choice or strain. In this study, the researchers collected data using the survey method and

analyzed data collected from over 14,000 Australian university students. One important

finding from the study that highlighted a scenario when it might be inappropriate to use

rational choice theory is when there is a need to fully understand students' motivation for

engaging in contract cheating. Based on the findings of the article, the rational choice theory
cannot be used to fully explain such motives because such rational choices are primarily

shaped by several related and overlapping strains that force students to cheat to achieve their

personal academic goals. Such findings reveal the limitations of using the rational choice

theory to try to adequately understand offenders' motives to engage in crime when individual-

specific and overlapping strains influence their decisions.

Conclusion

Crime analysis is a profession, concept, and process that entails using qualitative and

quantitative techniques to analyze data that is valuable to police departments and

communities. In most instances, crime analysts use multiple theories. Some of the reasons

why multiple theories of crime are often used for crime analysis are that offenders are often

motivated by different factors to engage in crimes, the multifaceted nature of crime, and the

broad nature of crime analysis that extends beyond analyzing crimes. However, although

multiple theories are often used in crime analysis, the two popular ones are rational choice

and routine activity theories. Regardless of their popularity, literature reveals that there are

certain scenarios when they are appropriate to use and in other situations when they might not

be appropriate. As a result, crime analysts need to ensure that they use each of these theories

where appropriate if they are to develop a clear and realistic understanding of why and how

crime occurs.

References

Cook, S., Giommoni, L., Pareja, N. T., Levi, M., & Williams, M. L. (2023). Fear of economic

cybercrime across Europe: A multilevel application of routine activity theory. The

British Journal of Criminology, 63, 384-406. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azac021

Khan, H. (2024). Exploring crime and deviance: A multifaceted analysis. The Journal of

International Social Research, 17(113), 1–15. DOI: 10.17719/jisr.2024. 141411

contract cheating. Criminal Issues in Criminal Justice, 1-17.

https://doi.org/10.1080/10345329.2021.1874603

Parti, K. (2023). What is a capable guardian to older fraud victims? Comparison of younger

and older victims' characteristics of online fraud utilizing routine activity theory.

Frontiers in Psychology, 1-16. DOI 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1118741

Santos, R. B. (2022). Crime Analysis with Crime Mapping. SAGE Publications.

Zhao, J., Wang, X., Zhang, H., & Zhao, R. (2020). Rational choice theory applied to an

explanation of juvenile offender decisions in the Chinese setting. International

Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 1–24. DOI:

10.1177/0306624X20931429