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 ISSN 0081-4539

2008
THE STATE
OF FOOD
AND
AGRICULTURE

BIOFUELS: prospects, risks and opportunities

Photos on front cover and page 3: All photos are from the FAO Mediabase, Giuseppe Bizzarri.

Copies of FAO publications can be requested from:

SALES AND MARKETING GROUP E-mail: [email protected]

Communication Division Fax: (+39) 06 57053360
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Web site: http://www.fao.org/catalog/inter-e.htm
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
00153 Rome, Italy
 ISSN 0081-4539

2008
THE STATE
OF FOOD
AND
AGRICULTURE

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

Rome, 2008
Produced by the
Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch
Communication Division
FAO

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this

information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever
on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory,
city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers
or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products
of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply
that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference
to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of FAO.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map does not imply
the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or
constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation
of frontiers.

ISBN 978-92-5-105980-7

All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information

product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without
any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully
acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other
commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders.
Applications for such permission should be addressed to:

Chief
Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch
Communication Division
FAO
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
or by e-mail to:
[email protected]

© FAO 2008
 iii

Contents

Foreword vii
Acknowledgements ix
Abbreviations and acronyms xi

PART I
Biofuels: prospects risks and opportunities 1

1. Introduction and key messages 3

Agriculture and energy 3
Opportunities and risks for liquid biofuels 5
Biofuel policies and objectives: is there a mismatch? 6
Key messages of the report 8
2. Biofuels and agriculture – a technical overview 10
Types of biofuels 10
Liquid biofuels for transport 11
Biofuel feedstocks 13
Biofuels and agriculture 14
The biofuels life cycle: energy balances and greenhouse gas emissions 15
Second-generation liquid biofuels 18
Potential for bioenergy 19
Key messages of the chapter 22
3. Economic and policy drivers of liquid biofuels 23
Biofuel markets and policies 23
Underlying objectives of biofuel policies 26
Policy measures affecting biofuel development 27
Economic costs of biofuel policies 30
Economic viability of biofuels 33
Key messages of the chapter 39
4. Biofuel markets and policy impacts 41
Recent biofuel and commodity market developments 41
Long-term projections for biofuel development 43
Medium-term outlook for biofuels 44
Impacts of biofuel policies 50
Key messages of the chapter 53
5. Environmental impacts of biofuels 55
Will biofuels help mitigate climate change? 55
Land-use change and intensification 59
How will biofuel production affect water, soils and biodiversity? 63
Can biofuels be produced on marginal lands? 67
Ensuring environmentally sustainable biofuel production 67
Key messages of the chapter 71
6. Impacts on poverty and food security 72
Food-security impacts at the national level 72
Food-security impacts at the household level – short-run effects 75
Biofuel crop production as an impetus for agricultural growth 79
Biofuel crop development: equity and gender concerns 83
Key messages of the chapter 85
iv

7. Policy challenges 87
Questions addressed by the report 87
A framework for better biofuel policies 88
Areas for policy action 90
Conclusions 94

VIEWS FROM CIVIL SOCIETY

Agrofuels or food sovereignty? 96

Biofuels: a new opportunity for family agriculture 97

PART II
World food and agriculture in review 99

Agricultural commodity prices 102

Agricultural production and stocks 104
Trade 107
Food aid and food emergency needs 109
Key factors driving future prices 110
Looking ahead 116

References 121
Special chapters of The State of Food and Agriculture 127

TABLES

1 Biofuel production by country, 2007 15

2 Biofuel yields for different feedstocks and countries 16
3 Hypothetical potential for ethanol from principal cereal and sugar crops 21
4 Voluntary and mandatory bioenergy targets for transport fuels
in G8+5 countries 29
5 Applied tariffs on ethanol in selected countries 29
6 Total support estimates for biofuels in selected OECD economies in 2006 32
7 Approximate average and variable rates of support per litre of biofuel
in selected OECD economies 34
8 Energy demand by source and sector: reference scenario 44
9 Land requirements for biofuel production 45
10 Water requirements for biofuel crops 64
11 Import bills of total food and major food commodities for 2007 and their
percentage increase over 2006 73
12 Net importers of petroleum products and major cereals, ranked by prevalence
of undernourishment 74
13 Share of net staple food-seller households among urban, rural and total
households 77
 v

BOXES

1 Other types of biomass for heat, power and transport 12

2 Biotechnology applications for biofuels 20
3 Biofuel policies in Brazil 24
4 Biofuel policies in the United States of America 30
5 Biofuel policies in the European Union 32
6 Main sources of uncertainty for biofuel projections 46
7 Biofuels and the World Trade Organization 52
8 Biofuels and preferential trade initiatives 53
9 The Global Bioenergy Partnership 58
10 Biofuels and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 59
11 Jatropha – a “miracle” crop? 68
12 Agricultural growth and poverty reduction 80
13 Cotton in the Sahel 81
14 Biofuel crops and the land issue in the United Republic of Tanzania 84

FIGURES

1 World primary energy demand by source, 2005 4

2 Total primary energy demand by source and region, 2005 5
3 Trends in consumption of transport biofuels 6
4 Biofuels – from feedstock to end use 10
5 Uses of biomass for energy 11
6 Conversion of agricultural feedstocks into liquid biofuels 14
7 Estimated ranges of fossil energy balances of selected fuel types 17
8 Support provided at different points in the biofuel supply chain 28
9 Biofuel production costs in selected countries, 2004 and 2007 35
10 Breakeven prices for crude oil and selected feedstocks in 2005 36
11 Breakeven prices for maize and crude oil in the United States of America 37
12 Breakeven prices for maize and crude oil with and without subsidies 38
13 Maize and crude oil breakeven prices and observed prices, 2003–08 38
14 Price relationships between crude oil and other biofuel feedstocks, 2003–08 40
15 Food commodity price trends 1971–2007, with projections to 2017 42
16 Global ethanol production, trade and prices, with projections to 2017 47
17 Major ethanol producers, with projections to 2017 47
18 Global biodiesel production, trade and prices, with projections to 2017 48
19 Major biodiesel producers, with projections to 2017 49
20 Total impact of removing trade-distorting biofuel policies for ethanol,
2013–17 average 50
21 Total impact of removing trade-distorting biofuel policies for biodiesel,
2013–17 average 51
22 Life-cycle analysis for greenhouse gas balances 56
23 Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of selected biofuels relative to fossil fuels 57
24 Potential for cropland expansion 60
25 Potential for yield increase for selected biofuel feedstock crops 62
26 Potential for irrigated area expansion 65
27 Agricultural trade balance of least-developed countries 73
28 Distribution of poor net buyers and sellers of food staples 76
29 Average welfare gain/loss from a 10 percent increase in the price of the
main staple, by income (expenditure) quintile for rural and urban households 78
30 Long-term food and energy price tends, real and nominal 102
vi

31 Commodity prices relative to income, 1971–2007 103

32 Changes in real rice prices in selected Asian countries,
October–December 2003 to October–December 2007 104
33 Agricultural production indices, total and per capita 105
34 Production of selected crops 106
35 Production of selected livestock products 106
36 Ratio of global stocks to use 107
37 Global food import expenditures, 1990–2008 108
38 Exports of selected crops 108
39 Imports of selected crops 109
40 Policy responses to high food prices, by region 110
41 Countries in crisis requiring external assistance, May 2008 111
42 Cereal food aid, 1993/94–2006/07 111
43 Effects on global agricultural prices of rising or falling biofuel feedstock use 112
44 Effects on global agricultural prices of rising or falling petroleum prices 113
45 Effects on global agricultural prices of a halving of GDP growth 115
46 Effects on global agricultural prices of a repetition of the 2007 yield shocks 115
47 Effects on global agricultural prices of higher and lower annual yield growth 116
 vii

Foreword

More than at any time in the past three food prices: weather-related production
decades, the world’s attention is focused shortfalls in major exporting countries,
this year on food and agriculture. A variety low global cereal stocks, increasing fuel
of factors have combined to raise food costs, the changing structure of demand
prices to the highest levels since the 1970s associated with income growth, population
(in real terms), with serious implications growth and urbanization, operations on
for food security among poor populations financial markets, short-term policy actions,
around the world. One of the most exchange rate fluctuations and other factors
frequently mentioned contributing factors also play a role. Given appropriate policies
is the rapid recent growth in the use of and investments, high prices can trigger a
agricultural commodities – including some response in terms of increased agricultural
food crops – for the production of biofuels. production and employment, which could
Yet the impact of biofuels on food prices contribute to poverty alleviation and
remains the subject of considerable debate, improved food security over the longer term.
as does their potential to contribute to The report also finds that the impact
energy security, climate-change mitigation of biofuels on greenhouse gas emissions
and agricultural development. Even while varies widely, depending on where and how
this debate continues, countries around the the various feedstock crops are produced.
world confront important choices about In many cases, increased emissions from
policies and investments regarding biofuels. land-use change are likely to offset or even
These were among the topics discussed exceed the greenhouse gas savings obtained
at FAO in June 2008 by delegations from by replacing fossil fuels with biofuels, and
181 countries attending the High-Level impacts on water, soil and biodiversity are
Conference on World Food Security: the also a concern. Good agricultural practices
Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy. and increased yields through technological
Given the urgency of these choices and the developments and improved infrastructure
magnitude of their potential consequences, can help reduce some of these adverse
participants at the Conference agreed that impacts. In the longer run, the emergence
careful assessment of the prospects, risks and of second-generation biofuels may offer
opportunities posed by biofuels is essential. additional benefits.
This is the focus of FAO’s 2008 report on the These are some of the main conclusions.
State of Food and Agriculture. What are their implications for policy?
The report finds that while biofuels Our starting point must be the current
will offset only a modest share of fossil situation of soaring food prices and
energy use over the next decade, they will the severe problems they pose for the
have much bigger impacts on agriculture poor. There is an urgent need to provide
and food security. The emergence of immediate relief and assistance to the
biofuels as a new and significant source of net food-importing developing countries
demand for some agricultural commodities most affected by higher food prices, as
– including maize, sugar, oilseeds and well as providing safety nets to poor net
palm oil – contributes to higher prices for food-buying households in developing
agricultural commodities in general, and countries. This is a shared responsibility of
for the resources used to produce them. national governments and the international
For the majority of poor households who community. However, it is advisable to
consume more food than they produce, avoid policies such as export bans and direct
higher prices can pose a serious threat to price controls, which may in fact worsen
food security – especially in the short term. and prolong the crisis by blocking price
But it is important to keep in mind that incentives for farmers and preventing them
biofuels are only one of many drivers of high from increasing output.
viii

There is also an urgent need to review rural areas. Particular attention needs to
current policies supporting, subsidising and be given to ensuring that farmers have
mandating biofuel production and use. A access to necessary inputs such as irrigation,
large share of the recent growth in biofuels fertilizers and improved seed varieties
has been driven by such policies, especially through market-supportive mechanisms.
in Organisation for Economic Co-operation Opportunities for developing countries to
and Development (OECD) countries. Many take advantage of biofuel demand would
of the assumptions underlying these policies also be greatly advanced by the removal
regarding beneficial impacts on climate of the agricultural and biofuel subsidies
change and energy security are now being and trade barriers that currently benefit
questioned, and unintended consequences producers in OECD countries at the expense
of rising food prices for poor consumers are of producers in developing countries.
being recognized. There seems to be a case The future of biofuels and the role they
for directing expenditures on biofuels more will play for agriculture and food security
towards research and development, especially remain uncertain. There are many concerns
on second-generation technologies, which and challenges to be overcome if biofuels
hold more promise in terms of reductions in are to contribute positively to an improved
greenhouse gas emissions with less pressure environment as well as to agricultural
on the natural resource base. and rural development. But just as hasty
Effective action must be undertaken decisions to promote biofuels may have
to ensure that biofuels provide a positive adverse unintended consequences on food
contribution to reductions in greenhouse gas security and the environment, so might
emissions while minimizing other negative hasty decisions to restrict biofuels limit
environmental impacts. There is a need, opportunities for sustainable agricultural
especially, for a much better understanding growth that could benefit the poor. As
of the effects of biofuels on land-use noted in the Declaration adopted at the
change, from which the most significant June 2008 High-Level Conference on World
impacts on greenhouse gas emissions Food Security, “It is essential to address
and other environmental impacts will be the challenges and opportunities posed by
derived. Criteria for sustainable production biofuels, in view of the world’s food security,
of biofuels can help ensure environmental energy and sustainable development needs.
sustainability. However, it is critical that such We are convinced that in-depth studies are
criteria be carefully assessed and applied necessary to ensure that production and use
only to global public goods, and they must of biofuels is sustainable in accordance with
be designed in such a way as to avoid the the three pillars of sustainable development
creation of additional trade barriers and and take into account the need to achieve
posing undue constraints on developing and maintain global food security … We
countries wishing to take advantage of the call upon relevant inter-governmental
opportunities offered by biofuels. organizations, including FAO, within their
When we look to the longer run, to mandates and areas of expertise, with the
the extent demand for biofuels leads to a involvement of national governments,
continued upward pressure on prices for partnerships, the private sector, and civil
agricultural commodities, we must be able society, to foster a coherent, effective and
to reap the opportunities this provides results-oriented international dialogue
for agricultural development and poverty on biofuels in the context of food security
alleviation. This requires overcoming and sustainable development needs.” It is
some of the long-run constraints which my hope that this report will contribute to
have hampered agricultural development better-informed dialogue and policy action
in too many developing countries for in this area of critical choices we face.
too long. The emergence of biofuels as
a new source of demand for agricultural
commodities strengthens the case for
enhanced investments, as well as increased
levels of development assistance, directed Jacques Diouf
towards the agriculture sector and the FAO DIRECTOR-GENERAL
 ix

Acknowledgements

The State of Food and Agriculture 2008 was of Hohenheim; and Eugenia Muchnik,
written by a core team led by Keith Wiebe Fundación Chile.
and comprising André Croppenstedt, Terri The team benefited greatly from a
Raney, Jakob Skoet and Monika Zurek, all wide range of consultations on biofuels,
of the FAO Agricultural and Development including: two Technical Consultations on
Economics Division of FAO; Jeff Tschirley, Bioenergy and Food Security, held in Rome,
Chair of the FAO Inter-Departmental 16–18 April 2007 and 5–6 February 2008,
Working Group on Bioenergy; and Merritt under the auspices of the German-funded
Cluff of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) Project;
The report was co-edited by Terri Raney, the International Workshop on Economics,
Jakob Skoet and Jeff Tschirley. Bernardete Policies and Science of Bioenergy, jointly
Neves provided research assistance and sponsored by FAO and the International
Liliana Maldonado and Paola di Santo Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology
provided secretarial and administrative Research in Ravello, Italy, 26 July 2007; and
support. two expert consultations on Bioenergy
In addition to the core team, several Policy, Markets and Trade and Food
people prepared background papers and Security and Global Perspectives on Fuel
analysis or drafted sections of the report: and Food Security in Rome, 18–20 February
Astrid Agostini, El Mamoun Amrouk, Jacob 2008. Several meetings of the FAO Inter-
Burke, Concepción Calpe, Patricia Carmona Departmental Working Group on Bioenergy
Ridondo, Roberto Cuevas García, David reviewed drafts of the report, and it was
Dawe, Olivier Dubois, Jippe Hoogeveen, Lea presented to the Economic and Social
Jenin, Charlotta Jull, Yianna Lambrou, Irini Development Department management
Maltsoglou, Holger Matthey, Jamie Morgan, team on 26 March 2008, all FAO staff
Victor Mosoti, Adam Prakash, Andrea members on 31 March 2008 and the FAO
Rossi, John Ruane, Gregoire Tallard, James senior management team on 26 May 2008.
Tefft, Peter Thoenes and Miguel Trossero, Many people gave valuable advice,
all of FAO; Uwe Fritsche, Oeko-Institute; suggestions and review comments on
Bernd Franke, Guido Reinhardt and Julia the report, individually or in the context
Münch, IFEU Institute; Martin von Lampe, of the above-mentioned consultations:
OECD; Ronald Steenblik, Global Subsidies Abdolreza Abbassian, Gustavo Anríquez,
Initiative, IISD; and Wyatt Thompson, Food Boubaker Benbelhassen, Jim Carle, Romina
and Agriculture Policy Research Institute. Cavatassi, Albertine Delange, Olivier
The report also drew on the joint OECD- Dubois, Aziz Elbehri, Barbara Ekwall, Erika
FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008–2017 and Felix, Margarita Flores, Theodor Friedrich,
policy scenarios that were prepared by Daniel Gustafson, Maarten Immink, Kaori
the FAO Trade and Markets Division on Izumi, Brahim Kebe, Modeste Kinane,
the basis of the AgLink-Cosimo model and Rainer Krell, Eric Kueneman, Preetmoninder
discussions with the OECD Secretariat. These Lidder, Pascal Liu, Attaher Maiga, Michela
contributions are gratefully acknowledged. Morese, Alexander Müller, Jennifer
The report was prepared under the overall Nyberg, David Palmer, Shivaji Pandey, Wim
guidance of Hafez Ghanem, Assistant Polman, Adam Prakash, Andrea Rossi,
Director-General of FAO’s Economic and John Ruane, Mirella Salvatore, Alexander
Social Development Department. Valuable Sarris, Josef Schmidhuber, Annika Söder,
advice was received from the members of Andrea Sonnino, Pasquale Steduto, Diana
the report’s External Advisory Board: Walter Templeman, Nuria Urquía, Jessica Vapnek,
Falcon (chair), Stanford University; Kym Margret Vidar, Andreas Von Brandt, Adrian
Anderson, University of Adelaide; Simeon Whiteman and Alberto Zezza, all of FAO;
Ehui, World Bank; Franz Heidhues, University and Ricardo Abramovay, University of


São Paulo; Dale Andrew, OECD; Melvyn Technology Centre; Francis Johnson,
Askew, Harper Adams University College; Stockholm Environment Institute; David
Mary Bohman, Cheryl Christiansen, Steve Lee, Cornell University; Bruce McCarl, Texas
Crutchfield and Carol Jones, USDA Economic A&M University; Enrique Manzanilla, US
Research Service; David Cooper and Markus Environmental Protection Agency; Teresa
Lehman, Convention on Biological Diversity; Malyshev, International Energy Agency;
Martin Banse, Agricultural Economics Ferdinand Meyer, University of Pretoria;
Research Institute (LEI); Eduardo Calvo, Willi Meyers, University of Missouri; José
IPPC WG III; Harry de Gorter, Cornell Roberto Moreira, University of São Paulo;
University; Hartwig de Haen; Daniel de Siwa Msangi and Gerald Nelson, IFPRI;
la Torre Ugarte, University of Tennessee; Martina Otto, UNEP; Joe Outlaw, Texas A&M
Ewout Deurwaarder and Paul Hodson, University; Jyoti Parikh, Integrated Research
Energy and Transport Directorate-General and Action for Development (India); Prabhu
of the European Commission; Asbjørn Pingali, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation;
Eide, Norwegian Centre for Human Rights; Martin Rice, Earth System Science
Francis Epplin, Oklahoma State University; Partnership; C. Ford Runge, University of
Polly Ericksen, Oxford University; Andre Minnesota; Roger Sedjo, Resources for
Faaij, Utrecht University; Günter Fischer, the Future; Seth Shames, Ecoagriculture
International Institute for Applied Partners; Guy Sneyers, Common Fund
Systems Analysis (IAASA); Alessandro for Commodities; Steve Wiggins, ODI;
Flammini, Global Bioenergy Partnership Erik Wijkstrom, WTO; Simonetta Zarrilli,
(GBEP); Richard Flavell, Ceres, Inc.; Julie UNCTAD; and David Zilberman, University of
Flood, CABI; Thomas Funke, University of California-Berkeley.
Pretoria; Janet Hall, UN Foundation; Neeta The expert contributions of the editors,
Hooda, UNFCCC; Barbara Huddleston, translators, designers, layout artists
Stockholm Environment Institute; Tatsuiji and reproduction specialists of the FAO
Koizumi, MAFF, Japan; Samai Jai-in, Knowledge and Communication Department
Thailand National Metal and Materials are gratefully acknowledged.
 xi

Abbreviations and acronyms

EU European Union

CRB Commodity Research Bureau

GBEP Global Bioenergy Partnership

GDP gross domestic product

IRR internal rate of return

LDC least-developed country

LIFDC low-income food-deficit country

MFN most-favoured nation

Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent

NPV net present value

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

TSE total support estimates

WTO World Trade Organization

 Part I
BIOFUELS:
PROSPECTS, RISKS
AND OPPORTUNITIES
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