14 August 2025 | 6:58PM EDT

Nu Holdings (NU): 2Q25 First Take: Earnings beat with positive trends

Growth appears to be back on track Tito Labarta

+1(212)357-6760 | [email protected]
Nu reported net income of $637mn, rising 14% qoq, +31% yoy, 2% above GSe and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

5% above company consensus. ROE picked up again after declining for two Tiago Binsfeld, CFA
+55(11)3371-4574 |
quarters, reaching 28.0%, up from 27.4% in 1Q25, but still modestly below 28.4% in [email protected]
Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.
2Q24. Results were driven by solid loan growth across all segments, while asset Lindsey Shema
quality remained under control, leading to better risk-adjusted margins. This offset +1(801)578-2673 |
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
still high deposit growth, which is a headwind to earnings, but positive for client
additions and engagement, as well as higher operating expenses, which jumped
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partly as expected given seasonality and one-off benefits in 1Q25. We think the
bottom line beat, while modest, but with good operating trends, should give
investors renewed confidence in the company’s ability to continue growing and
expand earnings and profitability. Indeed, the stock is up 8% after market. Maintain
Buy.

Solid net interest income and loan book expansion

Net interest income increased 14% qoq (+22% yoy), missing GSe by 1%, as interest
expenses slightly outpaced interest income. The share of interest-bearing loans
within credit cards (installments and revolving) remained at 35% of the Brazil credit
card portfolio (from 35% in 1Q25 and 34% in 2Q24). Loan origination (ex-credit
cards) came in at $3.6bn (from $3.5bn in 1Q25 and $2.5bn in 2Q24), with unsecured
lending at $3.1bn (from $3.0bn in 1Q25 and $2.1bn in 2Q24). The total credit
portfolio jumped 13% qoq (+44% yoy, with FXN growth of 8% qoq and 40% yoy,

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3% below GSe). Credit card loans were +12% qoq (+24% yoy FXN), while
unsecured loans rose 15% qoq (+70% yoy FXN) and secured loans grew 21% qoq
(+200% yoy FXN). Meanwhile, card payment volumes picked up 10% qoq (also +6%
yoy). The end-of-period BRL appreciated 5% qoq (from 8% appreciation in 1Q25),
while the average BRL appreciated 3% qoq (from stable in 1Q25), therefore
supporting both the income statement and the balance sheet expansion qoq in
2Q25.

Healthy cost of risk, while early NPLs improve sequentially

Loan loss provisions increased by 4% qoq (+33% yoy) and were 10% below GSe.
The cost of risk narrowed to 15.8% from 17.3% in 1Q25. Early NPLs dropped 30bps
qoq to 4.4% (vs. typical 2Q seasonality of -20bps), while 90-day NPLs increased

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
 Goldman Sachs Nu Holdings (NU)

10bps qoq to 6.6% (vs. seasonal +10bps qoq during 2Q). Positively, the risk adjusted
margin improved 100bps qoq (-180bps) to 9.2% (company calculation). All in, gross profit
expanded 17% qoq (4% above GSe), while gross margin was 190bps above our
expectation at 42.2%, largely driven by lower-than-expected loan loss provisions.

Deposits grow sequentially, slightly ahead of expectations

Total deposits increased to $36.6bn (+16% qoq, +45% yoy, 1% vs. GSe, and +41% yoy
FXN), with Mexico increasing to $6.7bn (from $5.4bn in 1Q25) while Colombia reached
$2.1bn (from $1.8bn in 1Q25). Meanwhile, deposits in Brazil increased 14% qoq (+45%
yoy, +41% yoy FXN) to $27.8bn. The cost of funding increased to 91% of blended
reference rates (from 90% in 1Q25).

Lower fees and higher expenses

Fees increased 5% qoq (+16% yoy), 6% below GSe. Interchange revenues represented
73% of total fees, with a yield of 1.18% (1.22% in 1Q25 and 1.10% in 2Q24).
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Meanwhile, operating expenses jumped 28% qoq (5% yoy, +9% vs. GSe), reflecting
higher marketing and share-based compensation qoq off low comps. As such, the
efficiency ratio deteriorated to 28.3% (from 24.7% in 1Q25 or 26.7% ex-DTA
remeasurement in 1Q), while the cost to serve came in at $0.8/customer (from $0.7 in
1Q25). Furthermore, Nu added 4.1mn new clients in the quarter (from 4.3mn in 1Q25)
reaching 122.7mn, with 107.3mn in Brazil (+2.7mn), 12.0mn in Mexico (+1.0mn qoq,
from +1.0mn in 1Q25) and 3.4mn in Colombia (+0.4mn qoq from +0.5mn in 1Q25).
Lastly, the company also reported $2.8bn in excess cash, up from $2.3bn in 1Q25.

Valuation and risks

We have a Buy rating on Nu with a 12-month price target of $19. Our price target is
based on a target growth-adjusted P/E (PEG ratio) of 0.6x. We assume mid-term
earnings growth of 32%, which leads to a 19x target P/E. The stock is currently trading

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at 12.8x 2026E P/E with a PEG ratio of 0.4x vs. global fintech peers at 25.8x and 0.7x.
Key downside risks to our Nu investment view include: (1) a weaker macro environment
leading to asset quality risks and higher provisions, (2) slower loan growth, (3) regulation
impacting rates on credit cards, (4) investments in Mexico & Colombia impacting
profitability, and (5) super voting shares.

14 August 2025 2
 Goldman Sachs Nu Holdings (NU)

2Q25 Review
Exhibit 1: Detailed 2Q25 results for Nu
US$ million, except per-share data

Income statement 2Q24 1Q25 2Q25E 2Q25A qoq yoy Actual/GSe

Interest income 2,383 2,732 3,114 3,129 15% 31% 0%
Interest expenses (665) (896) (997) (1,030) 15% 55% 3%
Net Interest Income 1,718 1,836 2,117 2,099 14% 22% -1%
Fee and commission income 465 516 571 540 5% 16% -6%
Gross Revenues 2,849 3,248 3,685 3,668 13% 29% 0%
Net Revenues 2,184 2,351 2,688 2,638 12% 21% -2%
Provisions for loan losses (760) (974) (1,130) (1,012) 4% 33% -10%
Transaction expenses (64) (58) (72) (78) 34% 22% 9%
Gross Profit 1,359 1,319 1,486 1,548 17% 14% 4%
Operating expenses (634) (524) (613) (669) 28% 5% 9%
Income before taxes 725 795 873 879 11% 21% 1%
Income taxes (238) (238) (251) (242) 2% nm -3%
Reported net income 487 557 623 637 14% 31% 2%
Adjustments 75 49 67 58 17% -24% -14%
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Recurring net income 562 607 689 694 15% 23% 1%

Balance sheet 2Q24 1Q25 2Q25E 2Q25A qoq yoy Actual/GSe

Cash & Cash Equivalents 8,530 10,284 14,058 13,269 29% 56% -6%
Credit portfolio 18,947 24,117 28,037 27,281 13% 44% -3%
Credit card loans 14,315 16,269 18,519 18,225 12% 27% -2%
Personal loans 4,632 7,848 8,812 9,056 15% 96% 3%
Interest earning portfolio 9,800 13,800 15,618 15,700 14% 60% 1%
Total assets 44,803 54,193 61,997 62,730 16% 40% 1%
Deposits 25,229 31,564 36,451 36,640 16% 45% 1%
Total liabilities 37,879 45,584 52,664 53,155 17% 40% 1%
Shareholders' equity 6,923 8,608 9,333 9,575 11% 38% 3%
Key operating metrics 2Q24 1Q25 2Q25E 2Q25A qoq yoy Actual/GSe
Reported ROE 28.4% 27.4% 27.8% 28.0% 60 bp -37 bp 27 bp
Recurring ROE 32.8% 29.9% 30.7% 30.6% 70 bp -223 bp -19 bp
Recurring ROA 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% 9 bp -32 bp 0 bp
Net interest margin 16.0% 14.5% 14.8% 14.6% 14 bp -135 bp -21 bp
Cost of risk 15.8% 17.4% 17.3% 15.8% -161 bp -2 bp -158 bp
Risk adjusted margin 9.0% 6.8% 6.9% 7.9% 110 bp -114 bp 99 bp
Loan to deposit ratio 75.1% 76.4% 76.9% 74.5% -195 bp -65 bp -246 bp
NPL ratio 7.0% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 10 bp -40 bp -1 bp
Early NPL ratio 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.4% -30 bp -10 bp -38 bp
Efficiency ratio 32.0% 24.8% 25.5% 28.3% 352 bp -367 bp 285 bp
Effective tax rate 32.8% 29.9% 28.7% 27.6% 235 bp 527 bp 116 bp

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Gross margin 47.7% 40.6% 40.3% 42.2% 157 bp -552 bp 187 bp
Net margin 19.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.9% 26 bp -81 bp 22 bp
Total clients (mn) 104.5 118.6 124.6 122.7 3% 17% -2%
Active clients (mn) 87.2 98.7 103.6 102.2 4% 17% -1%
Activation rate 83% 83% 83% 83% 7 bp -15 bp 17 bp
Monthly ARPAC (in US$) 11.2 11.2 12.1 12.2 9% 9% 0%
Monthly CTS (in US$) -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 10% -11% 0%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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 Goldman Sachs Nu Holdings (NU)

NU 12m Price Target: $19.00 Price: $12.01 Upside: 58.2%

Buy GS Forecast
12/24 12/25E 12/26E 12/27E
Market cap: $57.8bn Revenue ($ mn) 8,682.2 11,427.9 15,954.5 19,900.8
3m ADTV: $784.6mn Net inc. ($ mn) 2,207.5 3,006.0 4,755.8 6,307.3
Brazil EPS ($) 0.45 0.61 0.97 1.29
Latin America Financials P/E (X) 27.0 19.5 12.3 9.3
M&A Rank: 3 P/B (X) 6.5 5.2 3.6 2.6
ROA (%) 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.7
ROE (%) 31.4 32.1 35.1 32.8
TCE ratio (%) 15.3 14.5 16.2 18.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3/25 6/25E 9/25E 12/25E

EPS ($) 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.18

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 14 Aug 2025 close.
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

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 Goldman Sachs Nu Holdings (NU)

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We, Tito Labarta, Tiago Binsfeld, CFA and Lindsey Shema, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal
views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or
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Disclosures
The rating(s) for Nu Holdings is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe: B3, BB Seguridade, BTG Pactual, Banco
Santander Chile, Banco de Chile, Banco de Credito e Inversiones, Banco del Bajio, Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, Caixa Seguridade, Credicorp, Gentera
SAB de CV, Grupo Cibest SA, Grupo Financiero Banorte, Grupo Financiero Inbursa SA, IRB(Re), Inter & Co., Itau Unibanco, Itausa, Nu Holdings,
PagBank, Patria Investments, Porto Seguro SA, Qualitas, Regional, Santander Brasil, Stone, Vinci Partners, XP Inc, dLocal

e952e2276ba2494b9283c1f94cc6cf47
Company-specific regulatory disclosures
The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, “Goldman Sachs”) and companies covered
by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research and referred to in this research.
Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and Nu Holdings ($1.49)
Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and
Nu Holdings ($1.49)
Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and Nu Holdings
($1.49)
Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and Nu Holdings ($1.49)
Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and
Nu Holdings ($1.49)
Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and Nu Holdings ($1.49)
Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: Nu Holdings ($12.01) and Nu Holdings ($1.49)

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14 August 2025 5
 Goldman Sachs Nu Holdings (NU)

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 Goldman Sachs Nu Holdings (NU)

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