Summary: Discrete Probability Distributions
Foundational Ideas
- Trial: A single observation (e.g., inspecting one gadget).
- Success: The outcome we're interested in (e.g., defective gadget).
- Failure: The opposite outcome.
- Independence: Each trial doesnt affect the others.
- Comprehension is critical: Always clarify what's given, what's asked, and the structure of the trial process.
Bernoulli Distribution
- Single trial with two outcomes (success or failure).
Binomial Distribution
- Fixed number of trials, count the number of successes.
- Formula: P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
- Used when trials are fixed and independent with constant p.
Geometric Distribution
- Number of trials until the first success.
- Formula: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) * p
- Memoryless Property.
Negative Binomial Distribution
- Trials until the r-th success.
- Formula: P(X = n) = C(n-1, r-1) * p^r * (1-p)^(n-r)
- Geometric is a special case where r=1.
Hypergeometric Distribution
- Sampling without replacement.
- Formula: P(X = k) = [C(K, k) * C(N-K, n-k)] / C(N, n)
Poisson Distribution
- Count of rare events in fixed time/space.
- Formula: P(X = k) = (e^- * ^k) / k!
- Used for large n, small p, independent events.
Key Conceptual Wins
- Mastered memorylessness (Geometric & Exponential)
- Understood difference: fixed trials vs fixed successes
- Identified when to use Negative Binomial vs Hypergeometric
- Solved conditional and expert-level problems
- Applied distributions to real-world logic
Your Score & Evaluation
- Total Questions Solved: 9
- Score: 9/9
- Level: Ready for next topic
9 Practice Problems
1. (Easy) What is the probability that the first defective gadget is found on the 4th trial, given p = 0.1?
Summary: Discrete Probability Distributions
2. (Easy & Tricky) What is the probability that the 5th defective occurs exactly on the 10th trial?
3. (Moderate) A machine produces items with a 20% defect rate. What is the probability that 3rd defective is found on
the 8th trial?
4. (Moderate) If the first 5 defectives were found in the first 12 items, what is the probability that the 6th defective is
found at the 15th inspection?
5. (Difficult) A batch contains 20 defectives in 100 items. If 10 items are tested without replacement, what is the
probability that exactly 4 are defective?
6. (Difficult) Given that 5 defectives have already occurred, whats the probability that the 6th defective happens exactly
after 4 more non-defectives?
7. (Difficult) What is the probability that the 6th defective occurs exactly on the 20th inspection, given that at least 6
defectives were found in the first 20?
8. (Expert) A gadget has a 15% defect rate. Whats the probability that the 6th defective happens on the 20th trial, and
the 5th happened on the 16th?
9. (Subjective) Suppose youre designing an automated inspection system. Which distribution would you use if:
- You want to model number of gadgets inspected until a certain number of defectives?
- You care only about trials until the first defective?
- You want to estimate the number of defectives in a large batch?
Explain your choices and assumptions.
