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 Public Opinion and the International Use of
Force

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in the relationship between

public opinion and foreign policy in Western democracies. Contemporary
research has challenged earlier conclusions regarding the volatility of public
opinion, the coherence of political beliefs and the impact of public opinion on
policy making. However, until now the debate has been limited by a focus on
American, rather than European, public opinion and foreign policy, a primary
concern with the opinion-policy connection during the Cold War. More
particularly, there is also scholarly neglect of the crucial role played by casualties
and casualty-related issues in the calculations of decision makers and the support
of mass opinion regarding the international use of military force.
Public Opinion and the International Use of Force addresses these previously
overlooked issues and constitutes a major contribution towards filling the gaps in
current scholarship. Its international contributors use comparative studies to offer
completely up-to-date analyses based on the United States and a wide range of
other countries. Combining various forms of analysis, the book examines the
ways in which public opinion and its relationship with decisions on the use of
military force have developed since the end of the Cold War. In so doing, it also
addresses in particular the so-called ‘casualty hypothesis’ and, more generally,
the crucial and topical question of whether—and to what extent—a democratic
foreign policy in this area is either desirable or possible.
This book is stimulating and invaluable reading for students, scholars and
practitioners interested in foreign policy, public policy, public opinion and
international relations.
Philip Everts is Director of the Institute for International Studies at the
University of Leiden. He has published (in Dutch) Leave It To Us! Democracy,
Foreign Policy and Peace. Pierangelo Isernia is Associate Professor of Political
Science at the University of Siena. He recently co-edited Decision Making in a
Glass House: Mass Media, Public Opinion and American and European Foreign
Policy.
 Routledge/ECPR Studies in European Political
Science
Formerly edited by Hans Keman, Vrije University, The Netherlands; now edited
by Jan W.van Deth, University of Mannheim, Germany on behalf of the
European Consortium for Political Research.

The Roudedge/ECPR Studies in European Political Science series is published

in association with the European Consortium for Political Research—the leading
organisation concerned with the growth and development of political science in
Europe. The series presents high-quality edited volumes on topics at the leading
edge of current interest in political science and related fields, with contributions
from European scholars and others who have presented work at ECPR
workshops or research groups.
1 Regionalist Parties in Western Europe
Edited by Lieven de Winter & Huri Türsan
2 Comparing Party System Change
Edited by Jan-Erik Lane & Paul Pennings
3 Political Theory and European Union
Edited by Albert Weale & Michael Nentwich
4 Politics of Sexuality
Edited by Terrell Carver & Véronique Mottier
5 Autonomous Policy Making by International Organizations
Edited by Bob Reinalda & Bertjan Verbeek
6 Social Capital and European Democracy
Edited by Jan W. van Deth, Marco Maraffi, Ken Newton & Paul Whiteley
7 Party Elites in Divided Societies
Edited by Kurt Richard Luther & Kris Deschouwer
8 Citizenship and Welfare State Reform in Europe
Edited by Jet Bussemaker
9 Democratic Governance and New Technology
Technologically mediated innovations in political practice in Western Europe
Edited by Ivan Horrocks, Jens Hoff & Pieter Tops
10 Democracy without Borders
Transnationalisation and Conditionality in New Democracies
Edited by Jean Grugel
11 Cultural Theory as Political Science
Edited by Michael Thompson, Gunnar Grendstad & Per Selle
 iii

12 The Transformation of Governance in the European Union

Edited by Beate Kohler-Koch & Rainer Eising
13 Parliamentary Party Groups in European Democracies
Political Parties Behind Closed Doors
Edited by Knut Heidar and Ruud Koole
14 Survival of the European Welfare State
Edited by Stein Kuhnle
15 Private Organisations in Global Politics
Edited by Karsten Ronit & Volker Schneider
16 Federalism and Political Performance
Edited by Ute Wachendorfer-Schmidt
17 Democratic Innovation
Deliberation, Representation and Association
Edited by Michael Saward
18 Public Opinion and the International Use of Force
Edited by Philip Everts & Pierangelo Isernia
19 Religion and Mass Electoral Behaviour in Europe
Edited by David Broughton & Hans-Martien ten Napel
Also available from Routledge in association with the ECPR:
Sex Equality in Western Europe, Edited by Frances Gardiner; Democracy
and Green Political Thought, Edited by Brian Doherty & Marius de Geus; The
New Politics of Unemployment, Edited by Hugh Compston; Citizenship,
Democracy and Justice in the New Europe, Edited by Percy B. Lehning &
Albert Weale; Private Groups and Public Life, Edited by Jan W. van Deth;
The Political Context of Collective Action, Edited by Ricca Edmondson;
Theories of Secession, Edited by Percy Lehning; Regionalism Across the
North/South Divide, Edited by Jean Grugel & Wil Hout
 Public Opinion and the
International Use of Force

Edited by Philip Everts and Pierangelo Isernia

London and New York

 First published 2001
by Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of
thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.”
© 2001 Philip Everts and Pierangelo Isernia for selection and
editorial matter; individual chapters, the contributors
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted
or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented,
including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from
the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Public opinion and the international use of force/edited by Philip
Everts and Pierangelo Isernia.
p. cm.—(Roudedge/ECPR studies in European political science)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. World politics—1985–1995. 2. Security, International.
3. Public opinion. 4. Low—intensity conflicts (Military science).
I. Everts, Philip P. II. Isernia, Pierangelo. III. Series.
D849. P84 2001
327.1′17–dc21 00–062729

ISBN 0-203-44968-1 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 0-203-45711-0 (Adobe eReader Format)

ISBN 0-415-21804-7 (Print Edition)
 Contents

List of figures viii

List of tables x
Notes on contributors xii
Series editor’s preface xiv
Editors’ preface xvii

1 Introduction 1
PHILIP EVERTS

PART I Determinants and correlates of support for the use of force 28

2 The impact of basic motivation on foreign policy 29
opinions concerning the use of force: a three-
dimensional framework
WILLIAM O.CHITTICK AND ANNETTE
FREYBERG-INAN
3 German public opinion and the use of force in the early 54
1990s
ZOLTÁN JUHÁSZ
4 Italian public opinion and the international use of force 83
PIERANGELO ISERNIA
5 Risky missions: Dutch public opinion on peace-keeping 112
in the Balkans
JAN VAN DER MEULEN AND MARIJKE DE KONINK

PART II Public opinion and policy making on the use of force 135
6 Ireland: neutrality and the international use of force 136
KARIN GILLAND
7 Moving away from war: Israelis’ security beliefs in the 158
post-Oslo era
TAMAR HERMANN
 vii

8 The French and the use of force: public perceptions 181

and their impact on the policy-making process
NATALIE LA BALME
9 The myth of the reactive public: American public 199
attitudes on military fatalities in the post-Cold War
period
STEVEN KULLCLAY RAMSAY
10 War without bloodshed? Public opinion and the conflict 222
over Kosovo
PHILIP EVERTS
11 Conclusions: what have we learned and where do we go 253
from here?
PIERANGELO ISERNIA

Bibliography 265
Index 278
 Figures

2.1 The construction of eight ideal types from three dimensions 38

2.2 Number of times each question is expected to define factors in the 40
target matrix
2.3 Number of times each question actually defines factors at the 0.40 42
level or higher in the composite matrix
2.4 Mean differences among individuals favouring (+1) or opposing (+2) 48
‘US taking part in UN peacekeeping efforts’, using one-way
analysis of variance
2.5 Mean differences among individuals favouring or opposing ‘Using 49
US troops if Russia invades Western Europe’, using one-way
analysis of variance
4.1 Support for Italian participation in the Gulf War 92
4.2 Likelihood of support for Italian participation in the Gulf War by 96
expected duration
4.3 Support for Italian bombing and deployment of ground troops in 98
Kosovo
4.4 Support for Italian armed intervention in Bosnia 103
4.5 Support for use of force in different conditions in the Gulf War, 103
Bosnia and Kosovo
5.1 Trends in mission support and tolerance of casualties in the 119
Netherlands
7.1 ‘Do you agree that most Arabs have not come to terms with Israel’s 167
existence and would destroy it if they could?’
7.2 ‘Is it or is it not possible that, after peace agreements between Israel 168
and all Arab countries are signed, a “New Middle East” is
established?’
7.3 ‘In your opinion, how will Arab terror against Israeli targets be 169
influenced by the signing of peace agreements between Israel and
all Arab states and Palestinians?’
7.4 Scores of peace support and of Oslo support 173
7.5 Oslo belief and Oslo support (June 1994–April 1999) 173
7.6 Monthly scores of peace support vs. peace belief (June 1994-March 174
1999)
9.1 Public reaction to fatalities in Somalia, October 1993 207
9.2 Public support for US response to a hypothetical scenario with US 214
fatalities in a Bosnia operation
 ix

10.1 Support in the United States in 1999 for the air strikes and sending 226
ground forces
10.2 Support in France in 1999 for NATO intervention by air strikes and 226
ground forces, and French participation in it
10.3 Support in Germany in 1999 for NATO air strikes, participation of 226
Bundeswehr in action with ground forces and belief that Milosevic
will be forced to yield
10.4 Support in Italy for Italian bombing and deployment of ground 227
troops in Kosovo
10.5 Support in Italy for sending ground forces, Italian participation in 230
such an operation and if accompanied by the incidence of casualties
 Tables

2.1 Rotated factor matrix based on 1994 CCFR public data on foreign 45
policy goals
2.2 Rotated factor matrix, using reduced foreign policy goal questions 46
for CCFR 1994 public data
3.1 Adoption of more responsibility by Germany 64
3.2 Future roles of the Bundeswehr 65
3.3 Most important tasks of NATO 66
3.4 Approval of compulsory military service and willingness to defend 68
the country
3.5 Support for out-of-area missions 69
3.6 Attitudes towards UN missions 70
3.7 East-west differences among the independent variables 72
3.8 Determinants of the willingness to actively defend the country and of 74
attitudes towards out-of-area missions
4.1 Support for the use of force in different conflict situations (Italy) 86
4.2 Support for attack or negotiation 94
4.3 Determinants of support for Italian participation in the Gulf War— 96
logistic regression 25 January 1991; Maximum Likelihood
Estimation
4.4 Support for an armed Italian intervention in Bosnia and Somalia with 103
or without casualties
4.5 Number of Italian casualties deemed acceptable in Bosnia, Albania, 107
Kosovo
5.1 Evolution of the acceptability of casualties (risks) among Dutch 115
soldiers in the UNPROFOR mission in former Yugoslavia
5.2 Acceptability of casualties 116
5.3 Support for Dutch military participation in the UNPROFOR mission 119
in former Yugoslavia
5.4 Determinants of peacekeeping missions. Uncontrolled and controlled 121
regression-effects on support for Dutch military participation in
IFOR, December 1995
5.5 Relationship between tolerance for casualties and support for Dutch 124
military participation in the mission in Bosnia, controlled for the
expected success of the mission, December 1995
5.6 Trace war criminals 125
5.7 Biggest risk for soldiers in Bosnia 126
 xi

5.8 The impact of casualties 127

Appendix:
A.1 Correlations of age and education with mission support and tolerance 129
of casualties
A.2 Mission support by sex 129
A.3 Tolerance of casualties by sex 129
A.4 Support for UNPROFOR and the beginning of IFOR in former 131
Yugoslavia by political affiliation
A.5 Tolerance of casualties by political affiliation 132
6.1 Support for neutrality in the 1990s 145
6.2 The meaning of neutrality 145
6.3 Public opinion on the Gulf War 146
6.4 Neutrality and European integration 147
7.1 ‘Is it justifiable for Israel to initiate war in each of these situations?’ 168
8.1 The acceptance of the event of war 183
8.2 The use of French military force 184
8.3 Individual motivation for the use of force 186
10.1 Send ground troops? 227
10.2 Which role should NATO play in the conflict around Kosovo/ 231
Yugoslavia?
10.3 Bombing or return to diplomacy? Opinions in Italy 232
10.4 The goals of the NATO operation 233
10.5 Milosevic a war criminal? 234
10.6 Should Milosevic be removed from office? 234
10.7 Worries about casualties in the US 236
10.8 Would it be worth it to suffer casualties? 238
10.9 Casualties and support for sending ground troops 238
10.10 Reactions to casualties in Kosovo 240
10.11 Casualties and success 241
10.12 ‘Has NATO done a good job?’ 242
Appendix
A.1 General support for NATO actions 246
 Contributors

Natalie La Balme is a researcher at the Fondation pour la Recherche

Stratégique, Paris and a lecturer in political science at the Institut d’Etudes
Politiques de Paris. In 1999 she obtained her doctorate at University Paris-I
(Sorbonne) with a thesis L’influence de l’opinion publique sur les decisions de
politique extérieure en France: Une ‘contrainte permissive’.
William O.Chittick is Associate Professor of Political Science at the
University of Georgia. He teaches courses in American foreign policy,
international relations, and global policy analysis. He is completing a text on
American Foreign Policy: History, Process and Issues (New York: Chatham
House, forthcoming 2001).
Philip Everts is Director of the Institute for International Studies, Leiden
University. He is also a member of the government Advisory Council on
International Affairs in the Netherlands. His main research interests are in the
realm of European security, domestic factors in foreign policy making and the
content and role of public opinion on international affairs.
Annette Freyberg-Inan is a Visiting Lecturer for the Civic Education Project
in Bucharest, Romania, editor of the Romanian Journal of Politics and Society,
and an independent consultant for the country’s UN Resident Coordinator
System. Her main research interests are international relations theory, political
psychology and international political economy.
Karin Gilland is a lecturer at the School of Politics, Queen’s University,
Belfast. Her work centres on attitudinal integration in Europe at mass and elite
level.
Tamar Hermann is the Director of the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research, Tel Aviv University and a senior lecturer in the political science
department, the Open University of Israel. Her main fields of academic interest
are public opinion and foreign policy making, Israeli public opinion and the
political system, extra-parliamentary movements and political protest with
special emphasis on peace activism.
Pierangelo Isernia is Associate Professor of Political Science in the
Department of Political Science, University of Siena. He teaches courses on the
Italian political system, public opinion and foreign policy, and methodology of
 xiii

political research. His main research interests concern the relationship between
public opinion and international politics in Western Europe, international
crises and comparative foreign policy.
Zoltán Juhász studied at the University of Bamberg, George Washington
University, Washington and University of South Carolina, Columbia SC. He is
now Assistant Professor at the University of Bamberg. His research interests
include political sociology, political behaviour, electoral research and
comparative politics.
Marijke de Konink studied sociology at the University of Nijmegen. Until
recently she was a researcher at the Society and Armed Forces Foundation,
mainly on youth perceptions of the armed forces. She now works at the
University of Nijmegen.
Steven Kull, Director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes,
University of Maryland, is a political psychologist specialising in the study of
public and elite attitudes on public policy issues. His most recent book, co-
authored with I.M. Destler, is Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New
Isolationism (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1999).
Jan van der Meulen is Director of the Society and Armed Forces Foundation
(‘Stichting Maatschappij en Krijgsmacht’) in Rijswijk/The Hague. He is a
sociologist whose research and publications cover civil-military relations, (the
end of) conscription and public opinion on international security.
Clay Ramsay is the Research Director of the Program on International Policy
Attitudes, University of Maryland. With a background in history and
psychology, he has focused on the study of ideology and mass psychology. He
is the author of The Ideology of the Great Fear (Baltimore, MD: Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1992).
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