Final Report
Probability and Statistics Applied to
Information Technology
Regulations:
You should solve and submit this report to your eLearning account within two
weeks, from the beginning of May 20th 2025 to the end of June 5th 2025. Late
submissions will be not accepted. Additionally, students must comply with the
following regulations:
• This is a group final report. Number of students in a group must be 2 or 3.
• Any case of plagiarism will get 0.
• Assignments must be well-organized and legible. Format violations and lack
of care may incur a penalty of 10% to 50% of the total score.
• English is required for high-quality 100% English classes.
Submission:
Students need to submit a document file is in both Word and Pdf formats
(.doc/docx and .pdf), named by your Student IDs, eg. 52200000_52200001.docx, using
our faculty’s format. Limit the answer to a maximum of 15 pages, excluding title pages,
references, and table of contents.
Requirement:
Students need to adhere to the following requirements:
• For each question, students must reason, explain, and present in detail the
calculation steps, including the formula, alternative values , and final results.
• A conclusion is necessary for each answer.
1
Question 1: (1.0 points)
Consider a year with n=365 days, where each day is equally likely to be someone's
birthday. Now, suppose there are k=13 people at a party.
a) What is the probability that at least two people in the party share the same
birthday? (0.5 point)
b) If you are also attending the party, what is the probability that at least one
person has the same birthday as you? (0.5 point)
Question 2: (1.0 point)
A player can roll a fair six-sided die (with outcomes 1 to 6) up to three times. After
each roll—except the third—the player can choose one of the following:
• Stop and receive a number of dollars equal to the number rolled, or
• Continue rolling, provided they have not reached the third roll.
The player must accept the result on the third roll, with no further choices.
a) Study and present an optimal strategy the player should follow to maximize
their expected monetary reward. (0.5 point)
b) Compute the maximum expected reward a player can achieve if they follow
this optimal strategy. (0.5 point)
Question 3: (1.0 points)
There are two boxes. The red box contains four red balls and one blue ball, and the
blue box contains five blue balls and three red balls. The following experiment is
conducted one n times: a ball is randomly drawn from one of the two boxes, its color
is recorded, and then the ball is returned to the original box. The first ball is drawn
from the red box, but each subsequent draw is determined by the color of the ball just
drawn: if it is red, the next draw will be from the red box; if it is blue, the next draw
will be from the blue box. Calculate the probabilities for the following events:
a) The first ball is red. (0.5 point)
b) Analyze and find a general solution for the nth ball. (0.5 point)
2
Question 4: (1.0 point)
There is a bag containing 40 blue balls and 60 red balls. I randomly select 10 balls
without replacement. Let X represent the number of blue balls and Y represent the
number of red balls selected. Determine the joint probability mass function (PMF)
of X and Y.
Question 5: (1.0 points)
Given a random variable X∼Bin(8,θ), observe the random sample (2,5,6,7,8,6).
Using the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to estimate the
parameter θ.
Question 6: (1.5 points)
A study is conducted to analyse weekly grocery expenditures among families in a
neighbourhood. A random sample of 100 families is taken, and their weekly grocery
expenses are recorded. Here is a sample of 100 weekly grocery expenses:
Expenses ($): 93.0, 83.0, 77.0, 87.0, 80.0, 74.0, 89.0, 89.0, 79.0, 82.0, 82.0, 92.0,
80.0, 79.0, 88.0, 94.0, 80.0, 86.0, 88.0, 76.0, 93.0, 78.0, 81.0, 89.0, 82.0, 89.0, 87.0, 75.0,
89.0, 94.0, 76.0, 86.0, 93.0, 82.0, 93.0, 92.0, 80.0, 87.0, 86.0, 86.0, 89.0, 76.0, 84.0, 76.0,
83.0, 78.0, 87.0, 81.0, 85.0, 74.0, 89.0, 76.0, 80.0, 90.0, 87.0, 77.0, 80.0, 92.0, 86.0, 74.0,
84.0, 85.0, 85.0, 87.0, 97.0, 84.0, 92.0, 86.0, 77.0, 93.0, 90.0, 73.0, 73.0, 88.0, 70.0, 88.0,
78.0, 85.0, 74.0, 83.0, 85.0, 91.0, 85.0, 78.0, 81.0, 89.0, 79.0, 83.0, 80.0, 81.0, 87.0, 76.0,
78.0, 78.0, 70.0, 78.0, 63.0, 78.0, 81.0, 90.0
a) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean weekly grocery expenditure.
(0.5 point)
b) Explain the meaning of a 95% confidence coefficient. (0.25 point)
c) Explain how confidence interval width changes with increasing confidence
level at a fixed sample size. Give a specific example. (0.5 point)
d) If the distribution of weekly expenditures is not normal, would the confidence
intervals obtained in part (a) still be valid? Explain why or why not. (0.25 point)
3
Question 7: (1.0 points)
Twelve college students adopted a new study technique for one week and
subsequently took a series of tests that measured their thinking time, fluency, flexibility,
and originality of thought. The overall test scores of these students were compared to
the average scores expected from students using their usual study methods. Below is
a sample dataset of the test scores for the 12 students:
[82, 60, 81, 36, 67, 44, 94, 68, 51, 67, 59, 48]
a) Test the hypothesis that the actual mean score of students using the new study
technique is less than 80, with a significance level of 5%. (0.5 point)
b) To be valid, what assumption is required for the hypothesis test in part (a)?
(0.5 point)
Question 8: (1.0 point)
a) Research the basic principles of simple linear regression, including its
mathematical form, assumptions, and purpose. Present how to solve a regression
problem using the least squares method to estimate the model parameters. (0.5
point)
b) Provide a specific example with at least 5 data points and solve it step by step
using the theory from part a). (0.5 point)
Question 9: (1.5 points)
This question asks you to differentiate between Probability and Statistics, classify the
course topics accordingly, and visualize the entire course structure through a
comprehensive mind map.
a) Explain the difference between Probability and Statistics with clear
definitions and examples. (0.5 point)
b) Identify the topics in this course that belong to Probability and those that
belong to Statistics. Provide a classification and briefly justify your reasoning.
(0.5 point)
4
c) Create a mind map summarizing all the key knowledge areas in the course. The
mind map should organize topics under Probability and Statistics and highlight
their interconnections. (0.5 point)
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This is the end of the exam.
Please read the instructions carefully before proceeding.
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