GIS-351

System Simulation- Concepts and principles, Introduction to crop simulation models and their
uses for optimization of agricultural inputs

Crop simulation models

Crop simulations models are based on physical plant processes and simulate the effects of change in
growing environment on plant growth and development on a daily basis. A crop simulation model is a
simple representation of a crop and is explanatory in nature. The processes essentially modeled are
phenology, photosynthesis and dry matter production, dry matter partitioning, in simulation models
aimed at potential production. The response to water and nutrition limited environment is added by
introducing models of soil water balance and uptake and transpiration by crop, and nitrogen
transformations in soil, uptake and remobilization within plant, respectively. Crop modeling has
advanced to the point where it can be used to make reliable predictions in many instances. In some
cases, crop models can now replace trial-and-error types of research. In others, they can assist farmers
and agricultural officials in making strategic and real-time decisions, providing sufficiently accurate
predictions of factors such as duration of the plant-growth stage, plant biomass assimilation rates, and
soil-water balance. A good crop growth models should include ability to provide probabilistic estimates
of yield and should be able to evaluate spatial and temporal variations. Increasing efficiency and
production of understood systems under given set of limitations.

Definition of Crop model: A model can be defined as the representation of a process or a formal
expression of the essential elements of some problem in either physical or mathematical terms.
Modeling is based on the assumption that any given process can be expressed in a formal mathematical
statement or set of statements -f (A,B,C,). Models are approximations of how the world works. The
simpler the process, the easier is to formulate it in simple mathematical terms.
Crop models are mathematical representations of daily biological and physical processes and are used to
predict harvestable yield, plant growth and development, nitrogen dynamics and water balance in
response to controlled management and uncontrolled weather variables

System: A limited part of reality that contains interrelated elements and is logically bounded.
Or
A system is a set of interdependent components (part) that work together to determine the
behavior and performance of the system as whole. Since the system is affected by changes in the
environment outside the system, it is useful to define the boundary of the system and its
environment.
 Simulation: The process of building models and their application to study the system behavior.

General Features of Crop Simulation Models

 In its simplest form, the total biomass (BT) of a crop is the product of the average growth rate (g)
and the growth duration (d): BT equals g times d.
 Realistic simulation of yields must involve the prediction of these two important processes.
 The economic yield of a crop is the fraction of BT partitioned to grain. This fraction, termed the
Harvest Index, can range from practically 0.0 for crops with severe stresses at critical stages of
growth to more than 0.5 for crops that are grown under optimum conditions.
 The partitioning of BT into he economic yield is, therefore, an important part of a yield
simulation.

TYPES OF MODELS
 Depending upon the purpose for which it is designed the models are classified into different
groups or types. Of them a few are:
 Iconic: Physical or concrete models which are images of the real world; dimensions are usually
scaled up or down
 General Classifications of models

 Statistical models: These models express the relationship between yield or yield components
and weather parameters. In these models relationships are measured in a system using statistical
techniques. Example: Step down regressions, correlation, etc.
 Mechanistic models: These models explain not only the relationship between weather
parameters and yield, but also the mechanism of these models (explains the relationship of
influencing dependent variables). These models are based on physical selection.
 Deterministic models: These models estimate the exact value of the yield or dependent variable.
These models also have defined coefficients.
 Stochastic models: A probability element is attached to each output. For each set of inputs
different outputs are given along with probabilities. These models define yield or state of
dependent variable at a given rate.
 Discrete: A model where state variables change in steps not continuously with time; sometimes
step changes are confined to integer values
 Dynamic models: Time is included as a variable. Both dependent and independent variables are
having values which remain constant over a given period of time.
 Static: Time is not included as a variable. Dependent and independent variables having values
remain constant over a given period of time.
 Simulation models: Computer models, in general, are a mathematical representation of a real
world system. One of the main goals of crop simulation models is to estimate agricultural
production as a function of weather and soil conditions as well as crop management. These
models use one or more sets of differential equations, and calculate both rate and state variables
over time, normally from planting until harvest maturity or final harvest.
 Descriptive model: A descriptive model defines the behaviour of a system in a simple manner.
The model reflects little or none of the mechanisms that are the causes of phenomena. But,
consists of one or more mathematical equations. An example of such an equation is the one
derived from successively measured weights of a crop. The equation is helpful to determine
quickly the weight of the crop where no observation was made.
 Explanatory model: This consists of quantitative description of the mechanisms and processes
that cause the behaviour of the system. To create this model, a system is analyzed and its
processes and mechanisms are quantified separately. The model is built by integrating these
descriptions for the entire system. It contains descriptions of distinct processes such as leaf area
expansion, tiller production, etc. Crop growth is a consequence of these processes.
Generic versus crop specific simulation models

Some commonly used crop simulation models:

There are many dynamic simulation models to predict crop yield.
WOFOST: The Centre for World Food Studies, Wageningen, the Netherlands developed a
flexible crop model (WOFOST) based on basic physiology to predict yields at several
production levels, which more or less correspond to Land Utilization Types. WOFOST approach
considers five levels of increasing more realistic limitations-
 Production level1: Radiation and temperature limited
 Production level2: Water limited
 Production level3: Nitrogen limited
 Production level4: Nutrient limited
 Production level5: Weed, pests and diseases

DSSAT: Decision support system for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) was developed to
estimate crop production, resource use and risk associated with different crop production
practices. The software package contains crop simulation models, database for weather, soils and
crop and strategy evaluation programmes integrated with a shell programme which is the main
user interface.It contains the following families of models-
 The CERES family for simulating wheat, maize, barley, sorghum and millets
 The CROPGRO family models to simulate grain-legumes-soybean, groundnut and dry bean and
 ROOT crop models to simulate potato, cassava and aroids
 Other crops- tomato, sunflower, sugarcane and pasture.
 These crop simulation models simulate the effects of weather, soil, water, cultivar and nitrogen
on crop growth and yield for well drained soils.
 INFOCROP: Developed by Aggarwal et al., 2004, It is a generic simulation model for annual
crops in tropical environments. It uses weather (radiation, rainfall, temperature, wind speed,
humidity, frost), soil (texture, pH, depth, fertility), Variety (physiology, phenology and
morphology), management (planting date, fertilization, irrigation and residue management) and
pests (type, population and severity) as inputs. The outputs include, economic and biomass yield,
crop duration, water stress, N stress, yield loss due to pests, soil C and N dynamics and green
house gas emissions. Currently, it simulates chickpea, cotton, groundnut, maize, mustard, pearl
millet, pigeon pea, potato, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat.
 Some crop models reported in recent literature
 Software Details
SLAM II Forage harvesting operation
SPICE Whole plant water flow
REALSOY Soyabean
MODVEX Model development and validation system
COTTAM Cotton
APSIM Modelling framework for a range of crops
GWM General weed model in row crops
GOSSYM-
Cotton
COMAX
CropSyst Wheat & other crops
LUPINMOD Lupin
SIMPOTATO Potato
WOFOST Wheat & maize, Water and nutrient
SUCROS Crop models
ORYZA1 Rice, water
CERES-Rice Rice, water
CERES Series of crop simulation models
Framework of crop simulation models including modules of CERES, CROPGRO and
DSSAT
CROPSIM
CANEGRO Sugarcane, potential & water stress conds
APSIM-Sugarcane Sugarcane, potential growth, water and nitrogen stress

 Model calibration
 Calibration is adjustment of the system parameters so that simulation results reach a predetermined
level, usually that of an observation. In many instances, even if a model is based on observed data,
simulated values do not exactly comply with the observed data and minor adjustments have to be
made for some parameters .

Model validation
The model validation stage involves the confirmation that the calibrated model closely represents the
real situation. The procedure consists of a comparison of simulated output and observed data that
have not been previously used in the calibration stage. Ideally, all mechanistic models should be
validated both at the level of overall system output and at the level of internal components and
processes. The latter is an important aspect because due to the occurrence of feedback loops in
biological systems, good prediction of system's overall output could be attributed to compensating
internal errors. However, validation of all the components is not possible due to lack of detailed
datasets and the option of validating only the determinant ones is adopted. For example, in a soil-
water-crop model, it is important to validate the extractable water and leaf area components since
biomass accumulated is heavily dependent on these.

General applications in agriculture

 Estimating of potential yields
 Estimation of yield gaps; principal causes and their contribution
 Impact assessment of climatic variability and climatic changes
 Optimization of management- planting window, variety, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer
(precision farming)
 Environmental impact-percolation and N losses
 Plant type design and evaluation
 Genotype by environment interactions
 Yield forecasting
In India they are currently being used for:
 estimating the production potential of a location
 assessing production potential of a germplasm
  analyzing the precise reasons for yield gap
 estimating crop yield before the actual harvest
 studying short and long term consequences of agricultural practices on agricultural environment
 studying the consequences of climatic variability and climatic change on agriculture.

Advantages of the use of crop growth simulation models

 Provides a quantifiable method of classifying land
 Number of variables and complex interactions can be analyzed
 Provides a single, accessible, organized and standardized body of
 reference
 Rapid and cheap method of investigation, particularly when time-frames
 or money do not permit data collection
 Identifies particularly important inputs to each modeled system
 Are scale-neutral in concept.
 Useful for extrapolating experimental results to other sites where climate
 and soil conditions may differ
 Evaluation can be made for crops not previously grown in a region or to compare a range of crops
 Can be continuously updated and modified
 Can be extended to incorporate economic and/or social constraints
 Estimates of the production levels can be used for valuation and taxation

Application of Crop Models-Precautions and limitations of models

1. Adequate human resource capacity
2. Multi-disciplinary research activities.
3. Linkages, Research, Education and extension
4. No monthly data- to long- 10 days or less interval
5. Models for research and practical application
6. Preferably use other methods in longitude with Models. Realize conclusion
7. Local and regional Agriculture planning different
8. Inner production and outputs.
9. Integrating soil, crop and weather info.
10. Contemporary models-specifically yield.
11. Linking of crop models with short and long term weather forecasts.
12. Even in mechanistic models many relationships are empirical
13. There may be a tendency to accept simulated results without adequate validation.
14. Many models are very complex (at least initially) and may require detailed data.
15. Access to data is becoming increasingly difficult/costly
16. Few comprehensive records of the required data at regional or district level, particularly in less
developed countries
17. Certain degree of expertise is needed to use simulation models

Misperceptions and limitations of models

 Agricultural systems are characterized by high levels of interaction between the components that are
not completely understood. Models are, therefore, crude representations of reality. Wherever
knowledge is lacking, the modeler usually adopts a simplified equation to describe an extensive
subsystem. Simplifications are adopted according to the model purpose and / or the developer's
views, and therefore constitute some degree of subjectivity. Models that do not result from strong
interdisciplinary collaboration are often good in the area of the developer's expertise but are weak in
other areas. Model quality is related to the quality of scientific data used in model development,
calibration and validation.
 When a model is applied in a new situation (e.g., switching a new variety), the calibration and
validation steps are crucial for correct simulations. The need for model verification arises because all
processes are not fully understood and even the best mechanistic model still contains some empirism
making parameter adjustments vital in a new situation. Model performance is limited to the quality of
input data. It is common in cropping systems to have large volumes of data relating to the above-
 ground crop growth and development, but data relating to root growth and soil characteristics are
generally not as extensive. Using approximations may lead to erroneous results.
 Most simulation models require that meteorological data be reliable and complete. Meteorological
sites may not fully represent the weather at a chosen location. In some cases, data may be available
for only one (usually rainfall) or a few (rainfall and temperature) parameters but data for solar
radiation, which is important in the estimation of photosynthesis and biomass accumulation, may not
be available. In such cases, the user would rely on generated data. At times, records may be
incomplete and gaps have to be filled. Using approximations would have an impact on model
performance.
 Model users need to understand the structure of the chosen model, its assumptions, its limitations and
its requirements before any application is initiated, e.g, using a model like QCANE, developed for
cane growth under non-limiting conditions, would lead to erroneous output and analysis if it is used
to simulate under water or nitrogen stress conditions. At times, model developers may raise the
expectations of model users beyond model capabilities. Users, therefore, need to judiciously assess
model capabilities and limitations before it is adopted for application and decision-making purposes.
Generally, crop models are developed by crop scientists and if interdisciplinary collaboration is not
strong, the coding may not be well-structured and model documentation may be poor. This makes
alteration and adaptation to simulate new situations difficult, especially for users with limited
expertise. Finally, using a model for an objective for which it had not been designed or using a
model in a situation that is drastically different from that for which it had been developed would lead
to model failure.
As research tools
 Research understanding: Integration of knowledge across disciplines:
 Improvement in experiment documentation and data organization:
 Genetic improvement:
 Yield analysis:
As crop system management tools
 Cultural and input management: Management decisions regarding cultural
practices and inputs have a major impact on yield. Simulation models, that allow
the specification of management options, offer a relatively inexpensive means of
evaluating a large number of strategies that would rapidly become too expensive
if the traditional experimentation approach were to be adopted.
 Risks assessment and investment support.
 Site-specific farming
 As policy analysis tools
o Best management practices:
o Yield forecasting:
o Introduction of a new crop:
o Global climate change and crop production: