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(Ebook) Activities 1922-1929: The Return to Gold and Industrial Policy by Keynes, John Maynard ISBN 9780521230711, 9781107618015, 9781139524148, 0521230713, 1107618010, 1139524143 download full chapters

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16 views112 pages

(Ebook) Activities 1922-1929: The Return to Gold and Industrial Policy by Keynes, John Maynard ISBN 9780521230711, 9781107618015, 9781139524148, 0521230713, 1107618010, 1139524143 download full chapters

The document discusses the ebook 'Activities 1922-1929: The Return to Gold and Industrial Policy' by John Maynard Keynes, which focuses on his influence on British economic policy during that period. It highlights Keynes's concerns regarding the return to the gold standard, industrial policy, and unemployment, and includes his journalism and unpublished evidence to official committees. The ebook is part of a larger collection of Keynes's writings, emphasizing his significant impact on modern economics.

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the collected writings of
J O H N M AY NA R D K E Y N E S
Managing Editors:
Professor Austin Robinson and Professor Donald Moggridge

John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) was without doubt one of the most influ-
ential thinkers of the twentieth century. His work revolutionised the theory
and practice of modern economics. It has had a profound impact on the
way economics is taught and written, and on economic policy, around the
world. The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, published in full in
electronic and paperback format for the first time, makes available in thirty
volumes all of Keynes’s published books and articles. This includes writings
from his time in the India Office and Treasury, correspondence in which he
developed his ideas in discussion with fellow economists and correspondence
relating to public affairs. Arguments about Keynes’s work have continued
long beyond his lifetime, but his ideas remain central to any understanding of
modern economics, and a point of departure from which each new generation
of economists draws inspiration.

This volume brings together Keynes’s attempts to influence public opinion


and policy concerning primarily British affairs between 1922 and 1929. Dur-
ing this period, his major concerns were Britain’s attempt to return to the
gold standard and its consequences, industrial policy (especially in the cot-
ton textile industry) and unemployment policy, although he became briefly
involved in many other subjects. Most of the volume consists of Keynes’s
journalism for the period, but it also contains his previously unpublished
evidence to official committees, anonymous contributions to the Nation and
Athenaeum, and related correspondence.

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THE COLLECTED WRITINGS OF
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES

VO LU M E X I X

ACTIVITIES 1922–1929
T H E R E T U R N TO G O L D A N D
INDUSTRIAL POLICY

edited by
DONALD MOGGRIDGE

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS


for the
ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY

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© The Royal Economic Society 1981, 2013

All rights reserved. No part of this publication


may be reproduced or transmitted, in any
form or by any means, without permission

Published for the Royal Economic Society


throughout the world by
cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 8ru, UK

Published in the United States of America by


Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107618015

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception


and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.

This edition published 2013


Printed and bound in the United Kingdom
by the MPG Books Group

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

isbn 978-1-107-61801-5 Paperback


30-volume set isbn 978-1-107-67772-2

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GENERAL INTRODUCTION

This new standard edition of The Collected Writings of John


Maynard Keynes forms the memorial to him of the Royal
Economic Society. He devoted a very large share of his busy
life to the Society. In 1911, at the age of twenty-eight, he became
editor of the Economic Journal in succession to Edgeworth: two
years later he was made secretary as well. He held these offices
without intermittence until almost the end of his life. Edgeworth,
it is true, returned to help him with the editorship from 1919
to 1925; Macgregor took Edgeworth's place until 1934, when
Austin Robinson succeeded him and continued to assist Keynes
down to 1945. But through all these years Keynes himself
carried the major responsibility and made the principal decisions
about the articles that were to appear in the Economic Journal,
without any break save for one or two issues when he was
seriously ill in 1937. It was only a few months before his death
at Easter 1946 that he was elected president and handed over
his editorship to Roy Harrod and the secretaryship to Austin
Robinson.
In his dual capacity of editor and secretary Keynes played
a major part in framing the policies of the Royal Economic
Society. It was very largely due to him that some of the major
publishing activities of the Society—Sraffa's edition of Ricardo,
Stark's edition of the economic writings of Bentham, and
Guillebaud's edition of Marshall, as well as a number of earlier
publications in the 1930s—were initiated.
When Keynes died in 1946 it was natural that the Royal
Economic Society should wish to commemorate him. It was
perhaps equally natural that the Society chose to commemorate
him by producing an edition of his collected works. Keynes

vn

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GENERAL INTRODUCTION
himself had always taken a joy in fine printing, and the Society,
with the help of Messrs Macmillan as publishers and the
Cambridge University Press as printers, has been anxious to give
Keynes's writings a permanent form that is worthy of him.
The present edition will publish as much as is possible of his
work in the field of economics. It will not include any private
and personal correspondence or publish many letters in the
possession of his family. The edition is concerned, that is to say,
with Keynes as an economist.
Keynes's writings fall into five broad categories. First there
are the books which he wrote and published as books. Second
there are collections of articles and pamphlets which he himself
made during his lifetime (Essays in Persuasion and Essays in
Biography). Third, there is a very considerable volume of
published but uncollected writings—articles written for news-
papers, letters to newspapers, articles in journals that have not
been included in his two volumes of collections, and various
pamphlets. Fourth, there are a few hitherto unpublished writings.
Fifth, there is correspondence with economists and concerned
with economics of public affairs. It is the intention of this series
to publish almost completely the whole of the first four
categories listed above. The only exceptions are a few syndicated
articles where Keynes wrote almost the same material for
publication in different newspapers or in different countries,
with minor and unimportant variations. In these cases, this
series will publish one only of the variations, choosing the most
interesting.
The publication of Keynes's economic correspondence must
inevitably be selective. In the day of the typewriter and the filing
cabinet and particularly in the case of so active and busy a man,
to publish every scrap of paper that he may have dictated about
some unimportant or ephemeral matter is impossible. We are
aiming to collect and publish as much as possible, however, of
the correspondence in which Keynes developed his own ideas
in argument with his fellow economists, as well as the more

via

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GENERAL INTRODUCTION
significant correspondence at times when Keynes was in the
middle of public affairs.
Apart from his published books, the main sources available
to those preparing this series have been two. First, Keynes in
his will made Richard Kahn his executor and responsible for
his economic papers. They have been placed in the Marshall
Library of the University of Cambridge and have been available
for this edition. Until 1914 Keynes did not have a secretary and
his earliest papers are in the main limited to drafts of important
letters that he made in his own handwriting and retained. At
that stage most of the correspondence that we possess is
represented by what he received rather than by what he wrote.
During the war years of 1914-18 and 1940-6 Keynes was
serving in the Treasury. With the opening in 1968 of the records
under the thirty-year rule, the papers that he wrote then and
between the wars have become available. From 1919 onwards,
throughout the rest of his life, Keynes had the help of a
secretary—for many years Mrs Stephens. Thus for the last
twenty-five years of his working life we have in most cases the
carbon copies of his own letters as well as the originals of the
letters he received.
There were, of course, occasions during this period on which
Keynes wrote himself in his own handwriting. In some of these
cases, with the help of his correspondents, we have been able
to collect the whole of both sides of some important interchanges,
and we have been anxious, in justice to both correspondents,
to see that both sides of the correspondence are published in
full.
The second main source of information has been a group of
scrapbooks kept over a very long period of years by Keynes's
mother, Florence Keynes, wife of Neville Keynes. From 1919
onwards these scrapbooks contain almost the whole of Maynard
Keynes's more ephemeral writing, his letters to newspapers and
a great deal of material which enables one to see not only what
he wrote but the reaction of others to his writing. Without these

IX

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GENERAL INTRODUCTION
very carefully kept scrapbooks the task of any editor or
biographer of Keynes would have been immensely more
difficult.
The plan of the edition, as at present intended, is this. It will
total thirty volumes. Of these the first eight are Keynes's
published books from Indian Currency and Finance, in 1913, to
the General Theory in 1936, with the addition of his Treatise on
Probability. There next follow, as vols. ix and x, Essays in
Persuasion and Essays in Biography, representing Keynes's own
collections of articles. Essays in Persuasion differs from the
original printing in two respects: it contains the full texts of the
articles or pamphlets included in it and not (as in the original
printing) abbreviated versions of these articles, and it also
contains one or two later articles which are of exactly the same
character as those included by Keynes in his original collection.
In Essays in Biography there have been added a number of
biographical studies that Keynes wrote both before and after
1933-
There will follow two volumes, xi-xn, of economic articles
and correspondence and a further two volumes, already pub-
lished, XIII-XIV, covering the development of his thinking as he
moved towards the General Theory. There are included in these
volumes such part of Keynes's economic correspondence as is
closely associated with the articles that are printed in them. A
supplement to these volumes, xxix, prints some further material
relating to the same issues, which has since been discovered.
The remaining fourteen volumes deal with Keynes's Activities
during the years from the beginning of his public life in 1905
until his death. In each of the periods into which we divide this
material, the volume concerned publishes his more ephemeral
writings, all of it hitherto uncollected, his correspondence
relating to these activities, and such other material and corres-
pondence as is necessary to the understanding of Keynes's
activities. These volumes are edited by Elizabeth Johnson and
Donald Moggridge, and it has been their task to trace and

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GENERAL INTRODUCTION
interpret Keynes's activities sufficiently to make the material
fully intelligible to a later generation. Elizabeth Johnson has
been responsible for vols. xv-xvm, covering Keynes's earlier
years and his activities down to the end of World War I
reparations and reconstruction. Donald Moggridge is responsible
for all the remaining volumes recording Keynes's other activities
from 1922 until his death in 1946.
The record of Keynes's activities during World War II is now
complete with the publication of volumes XXV-XXVII. It thus
remains to fill the gap between 1922 and 1939 with three
volumes of which this is the first; to print certain of Keynes's
published articles and the correspondence relating to them
which have not appeared elsewhere in this edition, and to
publish a volume of his social, political and literary writings.
Those responsible for this edition have been: Lord Kahn,
both as Lord Keynes's executor and as a long and intimate friend
of Lord Keynes, able to help in the interpreting of much that
would be otherwise misunderstood; the late Sir Roy Harrod as
the author of his biography; Austin Robinson as Keynes's
co-editor on the Economic Journal and successor as Secretary of
the Royal Economic Society. Austin Robinson has acted
throughout as Managing Editor; Donald Moggridge is now
associated with him as Joint Managing Editor.
In the early stages of the work Elizabeth Johnson was assisted
by Jane Thistlethwaite, and by Mrs McDonald, who was
originally responsible for the systematic ordering of the files of
the Keynes papers. Judith Masterman for many years worked
with Mrs Johnson on the papers. More recently Susan Wilsher,
Margaret Butler and Leonora Woollam have continued the
secretarial work. Barbara Lowe has been responsible for the
indexing. Since 1977 Judith Allen has been responsible for much
of the day-to-day management of the edition as well as seeing
the volumes through the press.

XI

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EDITORIAL NOTE

In this and subsequent volumes, in general all of Keynes's own


writings are printed in large type. All introductory matter and
all writings by others than Keynes are printed in smaller type.
The only exception to this general rule is that occasional short
quotations from a letter from Keynes to his parents or to a
friend, used in introductory passages to clarify a situation, are
treated as introductory material and printed in the smaller type.
Most of Keynes's letters included in this and other volumes
are reprinted from the carbon copies remaining among his
papers. In most cases he added his initials to the carbon. We
have no means of knowing in most circumstances whether the
top copy sent to the recipient carried a more formal signature.
Most of Keynes's journalism appeared under his own name.
However, in the case of The Nation and Athenaeum of which
he was Chairman, Keynes wrote more than he signed. In
determining what unsigned material was Keynes's we have used
two sources of information: the incomplete run of marked copies
of the magazine that survive in the Keynes Papers1 and the two
special scrapbooks of Nation articles which he asked his mother
to keep and for which he provided the necessary information
as regards unsigned articles. Naturally the two sources overlap
on some occasions, as do other fragments surviving in the
Keynes Papers, thus giving us more confidence about particular
items.2
Keynes's own footnotes, as well as those of his correspondents,
1
The Nation's complete set of marked copies was destroyed during the Blitz.
2
Sir Roy Harrod was thus mistaken when he suggested that Keynes, with one exception,
'contributed nothing to the paper which was not signed or initialled' (The Life of John
Maynard Keynes, p. 337).

Xlll

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EDITORIAL NOTE
are indicated by asterisks or other symbols to distinguish them
from the editorial footnotes indicated by numbers.

Crown copyright material appears with the permission of the


Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. The Social
Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada provided
financial support.
The Editor wishes to thank Gary Dobinson for assistance
with the proofs.

XIV

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Chapter i
FINANCE AND INVESTMENT, 1922-1923

Although domestic events and policies absorbed some of Keynes's attention


during 1920-2, international affairs, most notably the working out of the
peace treaties and post-war reconstruction, absorbed most of the time and
energy he devoted to public affairs. From late 1922 onwards, however, the
focus of his interests began to shift more towards Britain and her problems.
An indication of this shift in focus came with the fall of Lloyd George's
Coalition Government, in the midst of talk of an election campaign, following
the meeting of Conservative members of Parliament at the Carlton Club on
19 October 1922, and Bonar Law's succession as Prime Minister. Two days
after Law assumed office, Keynes spoke to the 95 Club, a Liberal society,
in Manchester.
Notes for a speech at the gs Club, Manchester, 25 October 1Q22

I believe in the depth and reality of the great traditional


divisions between parties,—that they depend on deep principles
which are forever reappearing in changing circumstances.
I therefore welcome it with profound relief that the confusions
which perhaps inevitably followed the suspension of political
controversy during the war have been brought suddenly to an
end; and that Liberals can again stand together as Liberals
determined to make prevail sooner or later the principles of wise
government.
But eight years have passed since we were in this position.
Other preoccupations have overwhelmed us. We need therefore
a greater intellectual effort than usual to get our principles
clearly embodied in a programme. And when Liberals meet
together on such an occasion as this, we shall spend our time
best in discussing together what this programme ought to be.
We must begin with the national finance, the consolidation
of which is the necessary condition of progress in most other
directions.

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ACTIVITIES 1922-1929
I venture to lay down this proposition—that the field of
possible economies is comparatively narrow.
A large part of our expenditure—service of debt, pensions—
honourable and unalterable commitments.
A further part are social services which it would be wasteful
to curtail. I am afraid that we must agree that all further
expensive schemes of social improvement, even though they
may be productive in the long run, must be postponed. But we
must be equally obstinate in keeping those we have.
Beyond this there may be waste arising from mismanagement.
Economies in this direction not significant in relation to the
budget.
There only remain two categories of large expenditure,
armaments and commitments abroad.
I think we have got to go for these two items bald-headed.
B[onar] L[aw]'s administration will do its best but not
bald-headed.
We must have a change of policy so drastic that it may even
involve some risks.
Beginning with overseas commitments
Evacuation of Palestine and Mesopotamia with possible
exception of Basra
Appeal to Dominions to take up more fully their share of
policing the Empire
Reduction of the Army even to a point incompatible with
our exerting agreed influence in Europe.
There is no better way of ensuring peace than by assuming
it. We can only save ourselves by assuming that for 15 years we
are not going to be involved in a war by land, even if the
assumption is doubtful and needs courage. If no one is afraid
of us, I do not think that there is anyone of whom we need be
afraid.
We must take the lead in disarmament and not make it
conditional on the action of others.
If we have a happy and prosperous people at home, we should
always be equal to a great emergency if it ever arises again. This

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FINANCE AND INVESTMENT, 1922-1923
is the best form of preparedness and if, as I believe it is, it is
incompatible with the other forms of preparedness, this is the
one to be followed.
There are no important economies to be made except in this
direction. We must therefore attack these with courage and the
utmost determination. So much for expenditure. (Does Mr
McK.[enna] feel confident that the conservative administration
will do this?) What about revenue?
It would be very nice to reduce the income tax—too high for
social expediency. But very rash at present to promise reduction
of any taxes at all.
Are there any new taxes which ought to be put on. What about
protective import duties?
I have not the slightest doubt that B[onar] L[aw]'s admini-
stration will introduce protection sooner or later. Mr Law
himself won his spurs on this subject. He is still an ardent and
convinced protectionist. He has selected as his C[hancellor] of
[the] Efxchequer] the parent of the Safeguarding of Industries
Bill.: He will find it hard to balance his budget. Partly on pretext
of revenue etc.
You in Manchester all know what a disastrous and deceptive
prescription this would be for making both ends meet.
Nevertheless the danger is great—a wave of protective
sentiment passing over Europe.
Yet every scrap of experience which accumulates emphasizes
the blindness and disastrous folly of this policy. We in this
country must not only hold high the banner of unfettered trade
here. But everywhere where we can exert our influence in
Europe we must cast it on the side of freedom.
Formerly free trade was a desirable aid to increased wealth.
It has now become a necessary and essential defence against a
crushing poverty. Unless we direct our resources into the
directions where they are most productive, we shall not be able
to gain a living at all.
There is one other tax which deserves mention. The capital
1
Stanley Baldwin.

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Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/UPO9781139524148
ACTIVITIES 1922-1929

levy. Two years ago I was in favour. The collapse of values


since that date has changed the situation. But circumstances may
still arise from which the capital levy will be the right way out.
The circumstances for which a levy is reserved are easily
indicated.
The working part of the population owes the burden of old
obligations—proportion of the fruits of their toil.
If this proportion becomes unbearably high there are two
remedies—one deliberate, the other undeliberate. The capital
levy and depreciation of the currency.
All the continental belligerents have chosen the second
alternative—Germany, France.
It is possible that we here can avoid both. But it would not
be prudent to rely on this until we find by trying what economies
are possible.
Even here I think there would be not much harm in a modest
dose of depreciation. I believe that we should be in a better
equilibrium all round if prices rose to 2 or z\ times pre-war. This
would go a long way towards balancing the budget. But if we
could not balance our budget at this level, I should prefer a
capital levy, which I believe to be perfectly feasible technically
(as a Manchester man Mr Sydney Arnold2 has shown more
clearly than anyone), to further depreciation.
In short I do not think that a capital levy is practical politics
at present but it is not inconceivable that we may be forced to
fall back on it.
My financial policy for Liberalism is therefore
(1) Drastic economies on fighting and foreign services
(2) Uncompromising free trade
(3) No promises of any reduction in taxation until the Budget
has been balanced including provision for sinking funds
(4) The preservation of our existing social expenditure,
especially on health and education, but no new expensive pro-
jects just at present.
2
The reference is to S. Arnold, 'A Capital Levy: The Problems of Realisation and
Valuation', Economic Journal, June 1918.
4

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Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/UPO9781139524148
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