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 the collected writings of
J O H N M AY NA R D K E Y N E S
Managing Editors:
Professor Austin Robinson and Professor Donald Moggridge

John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) was without doubt one of the most influ-
ential thinkers of the twentieth century. His work revolutionised the theory
and practice of modern economics. It has had a profound impact on the
way economics is taught and written, and on economic policy, around the
world. The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, published in full in
electronic and paperback format for the first time, makes available in thirty
volumes all of Keynes’s published books and articles. This includes writings
from his time in the India Office and Treasury, correspondence in which he
developed his ideas in discussion with fellow economists and correspondence
relating to public affairs. Arguments about Keynes’s work have continued
long beyond his lifetime, but his ideas remain central to any understanding of
modern economics, and a point of departure from which each new generation
of economists draws inspiration.

Once the urgent problems of reparations, which had deeply troubled Keynes
at the Peace Conference at Versailles, were on their way towards solution,
Keynes turned to the equally grave problems of the currencies of Europe
and their adjustment to the post-war world. These issues had been discussed
in the series of Reconstruction Supplements of the Manchester Guardian
Commercial that he had edited during 1922. In the Tract Keynes drew heavily
on his own contributions to that series. This edition makes available the varia-
tions between the texts. The Tract remains of interest in three respects. First,
it shows the state of Keynes’s thinking about monetary problems and the
causes of inflation in the early 1920s. Second, it provides one of the clear-
est expositions ever written of the determination of forward exchange rates.
Third, it shows Keynes already favouring flexible exchange rates as a means
of allowing independence in national economic policy.

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 THE COLLECTED WRITINGS OF
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES

VO LUM E I V

A TRACT ON MONETARY
REFORM

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

for the
ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY

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 © The Royal Economic Society 1971, 2013

All rights reserved. No part of this publication

may be reproduced or transmitted, in any
form or by any means, without permission

First edition 1923

Reprinted 1924, 1929, 1932
Second edition 1971
Reprinted 1989

This edition published 2013

Published for the Royal Economic Society

throughout the world by
cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 8ru, UK

Published in the United States of America by

Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107610309

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.

Printed and bound in the United Kingdom

by the MPG Books Group

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

isbn 978-1-107-61030-9 Paperback

30-volume set isbn 978-1-107-67772-2

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 CONTENTS
General Introduction page vii

Note to the reader xii

Preface xiv

Preface to the French Edition xvi

1 THE CONSEQUENCES TO SOCIETY OF CHANGES

IN THE VALUE OF MONEY I

2 PUBLIC FINANCE AND CHANGES IN

THE VALUE OF MONEY 37

3 THE THEORY OF MONEY AND THE EXCHANGES 6l

4 ALTERNATIVE AIMS IN MONETARY POLICY Il6

5 POSITIVE SUGGESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
REGULATION OF MONEY 141

Appendix I 161
Appendix II 164
Appendix HI 170

Index 171

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 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
This new standard edition of The Collected Writings of John
Maynard Keynes forms the memorial to him of the Royal Eco-
nomic Society. He devoted a very large share of his busy life to
the Society. In 1911, at the age of twenty-eight, he became editor
of the Economic Journal in succession to Edgeworth; two years
later he was made secretary as well. He held these offices without
intermittence until almost the end of his life. Edgeworth, it is
true, returned to help him with the editorship from 1919 to 1925;
Macgregor took Edgeworth's place until 1934, when Austin
Robinson succeeded him and continued to assist Keynes down to
1945. But through all these years Keynes himself carried the
major responsibility and made the principal decisions about the
articles that were to appear in the Economic Journal, without any
break save for one or two issues when he was seriously ill in 1937.
It was only a few months before his death at Easter 1946 that
he was elected president and handed over his editorship to Roy
Harrod and the secretaryship to Austin Robinson.
In his dual capacity of editor and secretary Keynes played a
major part in framing the policies of the Royal Economic
Society. It was very largely due to him that some of the major
publishing activities of the Society—Sraffa's edition of Ricardo,
Stark's edition of the economic writings of Bentham, and
Guillebaud's edition of Marshall, as well as a number of earlier
publications in the 1930s—were initiated.
When Keynes died in 1946 it was natural that the Royal
Economic Society should wish to commemorate him. It was
perhaps equally natural that the Society chose to commemorate
him by producing an edition of his collected works. Keynes
himself had always taken a joy in fine printing, and the Society,
with the help of Messrs Macmillan as publishers and the Cam-
bridge University Press as printers, has been anxious to give
vii

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 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
Keynes's writings a permanent form that is wholly worthy
of him.
The present edition will publish as much as is possible of his
work in the field of economics. It will not include any private
and personal correspondence or publish letters in the possession
of his family. The edition is concerned, that is to say, with
Keynes as an economist.
Keynes's writings fall into five broad categories. First there
are the books which he wrote and published as books. Second
there are collections of articles and pamphlets which he himself
made during his lifetime (Essays in Persuasion and Essays in
Biography). Third, there is a very considerable volume of
published but uncollected writings—articles written for news-
papers, letters to newspapers, articles in journals that have not
been included in his two volumes of collections, and various
pamphlets. Fourth, there are a few hitherto unpublished
writings. Fifth, there is correspondence with economists and
concerned with economics of public affairs.
This series will attempt to publish a complete record of
Keynes's serious writing as an economist. It is the intention to
publish almost completely the whole of the first four categories
listed above. The only exceptions are a few syndicated articles
where Keynes wrote almost the same material for publication in
different newspapers or in different countries, with minor and
unimportant variations. In these cases, this series will publish
one only of the variations, choosing the most interesting.
The publication of Keynes's economic correspondence must
inevitably be selective. In the day of the typewriter and the filing
cabinet and particularly in the case of so active and busy a man, to
publish every scrap of paper that he may have dictated about some
unimportant or ephemeral matter is impossible. We are aiming to
collect and publish as much as possible, however, ofthe correspond-
ence in which Keynes developed his own ideas in argument with his
fellow economists, as well as the more significant correspondence
at times when Keynes was in the middle of public affairs.
viii

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 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
Apart from his published books, the main sources available to
those preparing this series have been two. First, Keynes in his
will made Richard Kahn his executor and responsible for his
economic papers. They have been placed in the Marshall Library
of the University of Cambridge and have been available for this
edition. Until 1914 Keynes did not have a secretary and his
earliest papers are in the main limited to drafts of important
letters that he made in his own handwriting and retained. At
that stage most of the correspondence that we possess is repre-
sented by what he received rather than by what he wrote. During
the war years of 1914-18 Keynes was serving in the Treasury.
With the recent opening of Public Records under a thirty year
rule, many of the papers that he wrote then and in later years
have become available. From 1919 onwards, throughout the
rest of his life, Keynes had the help of a secretary—for many
years Mrs Stevens. Thus for the last twenty-five years of his
working life we have in most cases the carbon copies of his
own letters as well as the originals of the letters that he received.
There were, of course, occasions during this period on which
Keynes wrote himself in his own handwriting. In some of
these cases, with the help of his correspondents, we have been
able to collect the whole of both sides of some important inter-
change and we have been anxious, in justice to both correspon-
dents, to see that both sides of the correspondence are published
in full.
The second main source of information has been a group of
scrapbooks kept over a very long period of years by Keynes's
mother, Florence Keynes, wife of Neville Keynes. From 1919
onwards these scrapbooks contain almost the whole of Maynard
Keynes's more ephemeral writing, his letters to newspapers and
a great deal of material which enables one to see not only what he
wrote, but the reaction of others to his writing. Without these
very carefully kept scrapbooks the task of the editor or bio-
grapher of Keynes would have been immensely more difficult.
The plan of the edition, as at present intended, is this. It
ix

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 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
will total twenty-four volumes. Of these, the first eight will be
Keynes's published books from Indian Currency and Finance, in
1913, to the General Theory in 1936, with the addition of his
Treatise on Probability. There will next follow, as vols. IX and x,
Essays in Persuasion and Essays in Biography, representing
Keynes's own collections of articles. Essays in Persuasion will differ
from the original printing in two respects; it will contain the full
texts of the articles or pamphlets included in it and not (as in the
original printing) abbreviated versions of these articles, and it will
have added one or two later articles which are of exactly the same
character as those included by Keynes in his original collection.
In the case of Essays in Biography, we shall add various other
biographical studies that Keynes wrote throughout his work.
There will follow three volumes, xi to xiv, of economic articles
and correspondence, and one volume of social, political and
literary writings. We shall include in these volumes such part of
Keynes's economic correspondence as is closely associated with
the articles that are printed in them.
The further nine volumes, as we estimate at present, will deal
with Keynes's Activities during the years from the beginning of
his public life in 1905 until his death. In each of the periods into
which we propose to divide this material, the volume concerned
will publish his more ephemeral writings, all of it hitherto un-
collected, his correspondence relating to these activities, and
such other material and correspondence as is necessary to the
understanding of Keynes's activities. The first four of these
volumes are being edited by Elizabeth Johnson; the later volumes
will be the responsibility of Donald Moggridge. It is their task
to trace and interpret Keynes's activities sufficiently to make the
material fully intelligible to a later generation. Until this work
has progressed further, it is not possible to say with exactitude
whether this material will be distributed, as we now think, over
nine volumes, or whether it will need to be spread over a further
volume or volumes. There will be a final volume of bibliography
and index.

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 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
Those responsible for this edition have been: Lord Kahn, both
as Lord Keynes's executor and as a long and intimate friend of
Lord Keynes, able to help in the interpreting of much that would
otherwise be misunderstood; Sir Roy Harrod as the author of his
biography; Austin Robinson as Keynes's co-editor on the Eco-
nomic Journal and successor as secretary of the Royal Economic
Society. The initial editorial tasks were carried by Elizabeth
Johnson. More recently she has been joined in this responsibility
by Donald Moggridge. They have been assisted at different
times by JaneThistlethwaite; Mrs McDonald, who was originally
responsible for the systematic ordering of the files of the Keynes
papers; Judith Masterman, who for many years worked with
Mrs Johnson on the papers; and more recently by Susan Wilsher
and Margaret Butler.

XI

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 NOTE TO THE READER
A Tract on Monetary Reform was first published in England on
I I December 1923. It was reprinted in 1924, 1929 and 1932.
There were also American, French, German, Italian, Danish
and Japanese editions. Of these, only the French edition had a
preface differing from the English.1
At the bottom of the final page of the table of contents of the
original English edition, Keynes wrote
'I have utilised, mainly in the first chapter and in parts of
the second and third, the material, much revised and re-
written, of some articles which were published during 1922
in the Reconstruction Supplements of the Manchester Guardian
Commercial.''
The articles in question and their dates of publication were:
' The Theory of the Exchanges and " Purchasing Power Parity "',
20 April 1922; 'The Forward Market in Foreign Exchanges',
20 April 1922;' Inflation as a Method of Taxation', 27 July 1922;
'The Consequences to Society of Changes in the Value of
Money', 27 July 1922.
The existence of these articles posed a problem for the editors.
If we had reproduced the articles separately, it would have
meant considerable duplication in so far as they also appear in
the Tract. In one case, moreover, given the reprinting of much
of chapter 1 of the Tract in Essays in Persuasion (volume ix), it
would have implied triplication. If, on the other hand, we had
reproduced the Tract as originally printed but made reference to
the changes that occurred since the publication of the relevant
articles over a year before, we would have run the risk of dis-
tracting the readers with a large number of footnotes. This
method, however, had the added advantage that we could have
provided an example of how Keynes moved material between
1
The Italian edition, translated by Mr Piero Srafia, left out the last sentence of the English
preface in translation.
xii

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 NOTE TO THE READER

media and audiences and also indicate how his views evolved
over time. Given this advantage, after experimenting with this
approach, we have decided to adopt it.
The text reproduced here is basically that of the first printing of
the Tract. However, we have removed the excessive capitalisation
favoured by his original printers, made the minor corrections
indicated in Keynes's working copy of the volume,1 added the
French preface and introduced into chapter i some contem-
porary cartoons which Keynes chose to accompany the version
printed in the Manchester Guardian Commercial. In footnotes
we indicate all changes from the articles of the previous year
other than those resulting from the updating of tables on the
correction of figures. Keynes's footnotes in the Tract are set off
in square brackets in the sections where the articles and the
final text are compared.
1
These are noted in Appendix in.

Xlll

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 PREFACE
We leave saving to the private investor, and we encourage him
to place his savings mainly in titles to money. We leave the
responsibility for setting production in motion to the business
man, who is mainly influenced by the profits which he expects
to accrue to himself in terms of money. Those who are not in
favour of drastic changes in the existing organisation of society
believe that these arrangements, being in accord with human
nature, have great advantages. But they cannot work properly if
the money, which they assume as a stable measuring-rod, is un-
dependable. Unemployment, the precarious life of the worker,
the disappointment of expectation, the sudden loss of savings,
the excessive windfalls to individuals, the speculator, the profiteer
—all proceed, in large measure, from the instability of the
standard of value.
It is often supposed that the costs of production are threefold,
corresponding to the rewards of labour, enterprise, and accumu-
lation. But there is a fourth cost, namely risk; and the reward of
risk-bearing is one of the heaviest, and perhaps the most avoid-
able, burden on production. This element of risk is greatly
aggravated by the instability of the standard of value. Currency
reforms, which led to the adoption by this country and the world
at large of sound monetary principles, would diminish the wastes
of risk, which consume at present too much of our estate.
Nowhere do conservative notions consider themselves more in
place than in currency; yet nowhere is the need of innovation
more urgent. One is often warned that a scientific treatment of
currency questions is impossible because the banking world is
intellectually incapable of understanding its own problems. If
this is true, the order of society, which they stand for, will decay.
But I do not believe it. What we have lacked is a clear analysis
of the real facts, rather than ability to understand an analysis
xiv

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 PREFACE
already given. If the new ideas, now developing in many quarters,
are sound and right, I do not doubt that sooner or later they will
prevail. I dedicate this book, humbly and without permission,
to the Governors and Court of the Bank of England, who now
and for the future have a much more difficult and anxious task
entrusted to them than in former days.
J. M. KEYNES
October

xv

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 PREFACE TO THE FRENCH EDITION
Events in the world of money move fast; but it does not follow that
principles shift as quickly. In addressing this edition to the French
public, I may be excused, therefore, if I seek to apply, in a few
words, the principles of this book to the changes which have come
over thefinancialsituation of France during the past six months.
I have maintained for a long time that a substantial fall in the
value of the franc was inevitable unless there was to be a more
drastic change in the policy of the French Treasury than was
likely to be politically feasible. This fall has now taken place.
The effect of the fall on the mind of the public is to engender
increased distrust and fear, and the atmosphere is pessimistic.
Nevertheless the establishment of financial equilibrium is easier
now than it was before the fall took place.
Let me first clear out of the way certain opinions and argu-
ments, which appear in the past to have influenced opinion, yet
are altogether contrary to good sense:
1. It has never been officially admitted that the value of the
franc can ever be fixed at any other value, either in gold or in
commodities, than its pre-war gold parity. This is absurd.
A restoration of the pre-war gold parity, apart from other in-
tolerable consequences, would increase fourfold the present
burden of the French National Debt. It is easy to calculate that
the holders of the debt would have a claim in that event practically
equal to the entire wealth of France. No Finance Minister there
ever was could balance such a budget. Unless, therefore, the
franc is never to be stabilised, in terms either of gold or of
commodities, this figment of an ultimate return to a pre-war
parity must be discarded.
2. Whenever the franc falls in value, the Minister of Finance
is convinced that this is due to anything except economic causes
and attributes it to the presence of a foreigner in the neighbour-
xvi

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