X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta

Probability
Probability is the branch of Mathematics dealing with the calculation of chances of an
incident occurring or not occurring. Let us take some examples.
➢ What are the chances of a cricket team winning a given match?
➢ What are the chances of a dice showing up an even number?
➢ A family has 5 children. All the children are girls. What is the probability that the sixth
child will also be a girl?
➢ What is the probability that it will rain on a given day?
All the above situations have more than possible results, which may or may not have
equal chances of occurring. Probability helps us determine the chances of each result
taking place and helps us in taking decisions.

Determinable and Random Incidents

An incident or situation is said to be Determinable, or Deterministic, when we know what
is going to happen and what is the result of the situation. Such a situation, when carried
out under same set of conditions, will always produce the same result which is known
beforehand.
For example, experiments in Physics or Chemistry are determinable incidents.
An incident is said to be Random or Probabilistic, when we are not sure what the result of
the incident is going to be. We may know that there are several results possible out of
which one or more can occur. Such incidents will produce a random or different result
when they occur, even if we carry them out under the same set of conditions.
For example, tossing of coin, rolling of dice, picking a ball out of several balls without
looking.

Important Terms Related to Probability

➢ Experiment
An Experiment is any incident that may have one or more than one possible results.
For example, rolling of a die is an example of an experiment.
➢ Outcomes
The various results of an experiment are called Outcomes. An experiment may have
one or more than one possible outcomes.
For example, when we roll a die, the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are all possible results and
hence, outcomes of the experiment.
➢ Event
An Event is defined as the set of similar outcomes. Events are denoted by uppercase
letters – A, B, C, etc. An event may include one, more than one or no outcomes,

1 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
depending on its definition.
For example, in the experiment of throwing a die, the outcomes 2, 4, 6, can be
classified as an event A – Coming up of an even number.

Types of Events
Events can be of several types. Some common type of events are:
➢ Simple Event
An event is said to be Simple, if it comprises of one type of activity only. Some
examples of simple events are tossing of a coin, rolling of a die, and picking a single
ball out of a bag containing several balls.
➢ Compound or Complex Event
An event is said to be Compound or Complex, if it comprises of more than one type of
activity. Some examples of compound events are tossing of two coins, rolling of a pair
of dice and picking three balls out of a bag containing several balls.
➢ Sure or Certain Event
An event is said to be Sure or Certain, if it will always happen.
For example, in the experiment of rolling a die, the event of a number less than 7
coming up is a sure event, as all the outcomes are numbers less than 7.
➢ Impossible Event
An event is said to be Impossible, if it will never happen.
For example, in the experiment of rolling a die, the event of a number more than 7
coming up is an impossible event, as all the outcomes are numbers less than 7.

Sample Space
The Sample space of an experiment or event is the set of all possible outcomes related to
that experiment or event, respectively. The sample space of an experiment is denoted by
the letter S, while the sample space of an event is denoted by its respective name.
Example 1: Write the sample space related to the experiment of tossing a coin once.
Solution: The required sample space is S = {H , T }
Example 2: Write the sample space related to the experiment of tossing a coin twice (or
tossing two coins together once).
Solution: The required sample space is S = {HH , HT , TH , TT }
Example 3: Write the sample space related to the experiment of tossing a coin thrice (or
tossing three coins together once).
Solution: The required sample space is S = {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }
Example 4: Write the sample space related to the experiment of rolling a die once.

2 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
Solution: The required sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Example 5: Write the sample space related to the experiment of rolling a pair of dice once
(or rolling a die twice).
Solution: The required sample space is
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1,3), (1,4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) 
S = (3, 1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3,4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5,3), (5,4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6 , 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) 
 
Example 6: Consider the experiment of rolling a die once. Event A is defined as the
coming up of a prime number. Write its sample space.
Solution: The required sample space is A = {2, 3, 5}

Outcomes Related to A Deck of Cards

A Deck of cards has 52 cards. The various classification of the cards is as shown below.

Probability of an Event
The probability of an event A is denoted by P ( A) and is defined as
Number of outcomes favourable to A n(A)
P ( A) = =
Total number of possible outcomes n(S )

In case of probability of an event related to an experiment being repeated,

Number of trials related to A
P ( A) =
Total number of trials

Some Important Points Related to Probability

➢ Probability of an event cannot be less than 0 and cannot be more than 1. Thus,
0  P ( A)  1
➢ Probability of an event cannot be less negative.
➢ The probability of a sure or certain event is equal to 1.
➢ The probability of an impossible event is equal to 0.

3 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
➢ The probability of an event not occurring is denoted by P ( A) or P ( A) .
➢ The sum of probabilities of an event occurring and not occurring is always 1. Thus,
P ( A) + P ( A) = 1
➢ P ( A) = 1 − P ( A) and P ( A) = 1 − P ( A)
➢ If the probabilities of several events or outcomes is equal, they are said to be equally
likely events or outcomes.
➢ The sum of all probabilities of all basic outcomes of an experiment is always 1.
Example 1: Find the probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed once. Also find the
probability of getting a tail.
Solution: When a coin is tossed,
Total number of outcomes are {H , T } , i.e., 2
Number of outcomes with head coming up are {H } , i.e., 1
Number of outcomes with heads 1
 P (head comes up) = =
Total number of outcomes 2
Number of outcomes with tail coming up are {T } , i.e., 1
Number of outcomes with tails 1
 P (tail comes up) = =
Total number of outcomes 2

Example 2: A bag contains a red ball, a blue ball and a yellow ball, all the balls being of
the same size. Kritika takes out a ball from the bag without looking into it. What is the
probability that she takes out the
a) yellow ball? b) red ball? c) blue ball?
Solution: Total number of balls in the bag = 3
Number of yellow balls in bag 1
 P (yellow ball ) = =
Total number of balls in bag 3
Number of red balls in bag 1
Similarly, P (red ball ) = =
Total number of balls in bag 3
Number of blue balls in bag 1
and P (blue ball ) = =
Total number of balls in bag 3

Example 3: Suppose we throw a die once.

a) What is the probability of getting a number greater than 4?
b) What is the probability of getting a number less than or equal to 4?
Solution: When a die is rolled, total number of outcomes are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} , i.e., 6
a) Numbers on die greater than 4 are {5, 6} , i.e., 2

4 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
Numbers on die greater than 4 2 1
 P (number on die is greater than 4) = = =
Total number of outcomes 6 3
b) Numbers on die less than or equal to 4 are {1, 2, 3, 4} , i.e., 4
Numbers on die less than or equal to 4
 P (number on die is less than or equal to 4) =
Total number of outcomes
4 2
= =
6 3
Example 4: One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Calculate the
probability that the card will
a) be an ace b) not be an ace
Solution: When a card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of cards, total number of
outcomes possible = 52
 n(S) = 52
a) Let A be the event that the card drawn is an ace.
∵ number of aces in the deck = 4
 n( A) = 4
n( A) 4 1
 probability that the card drawn is an ace, P ( A) = = =
n(S) 52 13
b) Probability that the card drawn is not an ace = P ( A)
= 1 − P ( A)
1 12
=1− =
13 13
Example 5: Two players, Sangeeta and Reshma, play a tennis match. It is known that the
probability of Sangeeta winning the match is 0.62. What is the probability of Reshma
winning the match?
Solution: Since, only Reshma and Sangeeta are playing the match and one of them has to
be the winner
 P ( Sangeeta wins ) + P ( Reshma wins ) = 1
 P ( Reshma wins ) + 0.62 = 1
 P ( Reshma wins = 1 − 0.62 = 0.38

Example 6: Savita and Hamida are friends. What is the probability that both will have
a) different birthdays? b) the same birthday? (ignoring a leap year).
Solution: Let Savita’s birthday fall on any particular day out of 365 days in a year
 total number of possible outcomes = 365

5 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
a) For the two to have different birthdays, Hamida’s birthday should fall on any day
except the day same as Savita’s birthday
 number of favourable outcomes = 365 − 1 = 364
364
 P ( they have different birthdays ) =
365
b) P ( they have same birthday ) = 1 − P ( they have different birthdays )
364 1
=1− =
365 365
Example 7: There are 40 students in Class X of a school of whom 25 are girls and 15 are
boys. The class teacher has to select one student as a class representative. She writes the
name of each student on a separate card, the cards being identical. Then she puts cards in
a bag and stirs them thoroughly. She then draws one card from the bag. What is the
probability that the name written on the card is the name of
a) a girl? b) a boy?
Solution: Let A be the event that the name on the selected card is that of a girl and B be
the event that the name on the selected card is that of a boy
Total number of students = 40
 n(S) = 40
a) number of girls in class, n( A) = 25
n( A) 25 5
 Probability that the name on card is that of a girl, P ( A) = = =
n(S) 40 8
b) number of boys in class, n(B) = 15
n(B) 15 3
 Probability that the name on card is that of a boy, P (B) = = =
n(S) 40 8
Example 8: A box contains 3 blue, 2 white, and 4 red marbles. If a marble is drawn at
random from the box, what is the probability that it will be
a) white? b) blue? c) red?
Solution: Total number of marbles = 3 + 2 + 4 = 9
a) number of white marbles = 2
Number of white marbles 2
 Probability of selected marble being white = =
Total number of marbles 9
b) number of blue marbles = 3
Number of blue marbles 3 1
 Probability of selected marble being blue = = =
Total number of marbles 9 3

6 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
c) number of red marbles = 4
Number of red marbles 4
 Probability of selected marble being red = =
Total number of marbles 9

Example 9: Harpreet tosses two different coins simultaneously (say, one is of ` 1 and
other of ` 2). What is the probability that she gets at least one head?
Solution: Since two coins are tossed together
 possible outcomes are {HH , HT ,TH , TT }
 n(S) = 4
Let A denote the event that she gets at least one head
 number of outcomes favourable to A are {HH , HT , TH }
 n( A) = 3
n( A) 3
 Probability she gets at least one head, P ( A) = =
n(S) 4
Example 10: In a musical chair game, the person playing the music has been advised to
stop playing the music at any time within 2 minutes after she starts playing. What is the
probability that the music will stop within the first half-minute after starting?
Solution: Total time available = 2 min
 total number of seconds available = 2  60 = 120
∵ we need to stop the music within the first half-minute
1
 number of seconds available to stop the music =  60 = 30
2
 Probability that the music stops in the first half-minute
S ec onds in half − minute 30 1
= = =
Total sec onds available 120 4

Example 11: A missing helicopter is reported to have crashed somewhere in the

rectangular region shown in the figure. What is the probability that it crashed inside the
lake shown in the figure?

7 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
Solution: Total area of the region = 9  4.5 = 40.5 km2
Area of the lake = (4.5 − 2)  (9 − 6)
= 2.5  3 = 7.5 km2
 probability the helicopter crashed into the lake
Area of the lake 7.5 75 5
= = = =
Area of the region 40.5 405 27

Example 12: A carton consists of 100 shirts of which 88 are good, 8 have minor defects
and 4 have major defects. Jimmy, a trader, will only accept the shirts which are good, but
Sujatha, another trader, will only reject the shirts which have major defects. One shirt is
drawn at random from the carton. What is the probability that
a) it is acceptable to Jimmy? b) it is acceptable to Sujatha?
Solution: Total number of shirts in the carton = 100
a) Number of good shirts = 88
∵ Jimmy only accepts good shirts
 probability that the drawn shirt is acceptable to Jimmy
Number of good shirts 88 22
= = =
Total number of shirts 100 25
b) Number of shirts with major defects = 4
 number of shirts with no major defects = 100 − 4 = 96
∵ Sujata only rejects shirts with major defect
 she accepts shirts with no major defect
 probability that the drawn shirt is acceptable to Sujata
Number of shirts with no major defects 96 24
= = =
Total number of shirts 100 25

Example 13: Two dice, one blue and one grey, are thrown at the same time. Write down
all the possible outcomes. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers
appearing on the top of the dice is
a) 8? b) 13? c) less than or equal to 12?
Solution: Since two dice are rolled together
 the total possible outcomes are
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1,3), (1,4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) 
S = (3, 1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3,4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5,3), (5,4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6 , 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) 
 
8 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
Thus, total number of possible outcomes, n(S) = 36
a) Let A be the event that the sum of numbers on the dice is 8
 outcomes favourable to A are {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}
 number of outcomes favourable to A, n( A) = 5
n( A) 5
 P ( A) = =
n(S) 36
b) Let B be the event that the sum of numbers on the dice is 13
 outcomes favourable to B are none
 number of outcomes favourable to B, n(B) = 0
n(B) 0
 P (B) = = =0
n(S) 36
c) Let C be the event that the sum of numbers on the dice is less than or equal to 2
 outcomes favourable to C are
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1,3), (1,4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) 
 
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3,4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5,3), (5,4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) 
 
 number of outcomes favourable to C, n(C ) = 36
n(C ) 36
 P (C ) = = =1
n(S) 36

Extra Questions
Q 1. Find the probability that a leap year selected at random contains 53 Wednesdays.
Solution: A leap year has 366 days, i.e. 52 weeks and 2 days
 every leap year will have 52 Wednesdays
Now, the remaining two days can be any one of the following pair of days:
(Mon, Tue), (Tue, Wed ), (Wed , Thu), (Thu , Fri ), (Fri , Sat ), (Sat , Sun), (Sun, Mon)
 total number of possible outcomes = 7
∵ we require 53 Wednesdays
 favourable outcomes are (Tue, Wed ), (Wed , Thu) , i.e., 2
 Probability that a leap year has 53 Wednesdays
Number of favourable outcomes 2
= =
Total number of possible outcomes 7

9 9811442618, 9811442628
X\Maths\Notes\Probability Amit Gupta
Q 2. Three coins are tossed once. What is the probability of getting at least one head?
Solution: Since three coins are tossed once
 the possible outcomes are
S = {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }
 total number of possible outcomes, n(S) = 8
Let A be the event of getting at least one head
 outcomes favourable to A are {HTT , THT , TTH , HHT , HTH , THH , HHH }
 number of outcomes favourable to A, n( A) = 7
n( A) 7
 P ( A) = =
n(S) 8
Q 3. A pair of dice are rolled once. What is the probability that the sum of numbers on the
dice is a prime number?
Solution: The total possible outcomes are
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1,3), (1,4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) 
S = (3, 1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3,4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5,3), (5,4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6 , 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) 
 
Thus, total number of possible outcomes, n(S) = 36
Let A be the event that the sum of numbers on the dice is a prime number
 the sum of numbers can be 2, 3, 5, 7, 11
 outcomes favourable to A are
(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1), (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1), (5, 6), (6, 5)
 number of outcomes favourable to A, n( A) = 15
n( A) 15 5
 P ( A) = = =
n(S) 36 12

10 9811442618, 9811442628