Final Tests Prob Stat 2021-PRINT
Final Tests Prob Stat 2021-PRINT
Notice: Invigilators should not explain the questions on the exam papers.
Notice: Invigilators should not explain the questions on the exam papers.
January8th, 2021
Question 1. (1.5/10) Consider randomly selecting a single individual and having that person
test drive 3 different vehicles. Define events A1 , A2 , and A3 by A1 = likes vehicle #1, A2 = likes
vehicle #2, A3 = likes vehicle #3. Suppose that
Question 7. (1.0/10) Toughness and fibrousness of asparagus are major determinants of qual-
ity. This was the focus of a study reported in “Post-Harvest Glyphosphate Application Reduces
Toughening, Fiber Content, and Lignification of Stored Asparagus Spears”. The article reported
the accompanying data (read from a graph) on x shear force (kg) and y percent fiber dry weight.
x 48 57 60 72 81 85 109 121 137 148 149 184 185 187
y 2.10 2.28 2.53 2.29 2.62 2.50 2.66 2.82 3.01 2.98 3.34 3.49 3.48 3.26
Determine the correlation coefficient for the above set of results and the equation of the least
squares regression line for predicting the percent fiber dry weight. Use your regression line to
estimate the value of the percent fiber dry weight when shear force is 132 kg?
Question 1. (1.0/10) Three plants manufacture hard drives and ship them to a warehouse for
distribution. Plant I produces 54% of the warehouse’s inventory with a 4% defect rate. Plant II
produces 35% of the warehouse’s inventory with an 8% defect rate. Plant III produces the remain-
der of the warehouse’s inventory with a 12% defect rate.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected hard drive is defective?
b. Suppose a hard drive is defective. What is the probability that it came from Plant II?
Question 2. (1.0/10) A large lot of tires contains 5% defectives. 4 tires are to be chosen for a
car.
a. Find the probability that you find at most 2 defective tires before 4 good ones.
b. Find the mean and variance of the number of defective tires you find before finding 4 good tires.
Question 3. (1.0/10) A shipment of 25 integrated circuits (ICs) arrives at an electronics man-
ufacturing site. The site manager will randomly select 4 ICs and test them to see whether they
are faulty. Unknown to the site manager, 5 of these 25 ICs are faulty. Suppose the shipment will
be accepted if and only if at most one of the inspected ICs is faulty. What is the probability this
shipment of 25 ICs will be accepted?
Question 4. (1.5/10) Based on extensive data from an urban freeway near Toronto, Canada,
“it is assumed that free speeds can best be represented by a normal distribution”. The mean and
standard deviation reported in the article were 118 km/h and 13.1 km/h, respectively.
a. The posted speed limit was 100 km/h. What percentage of vehicles was traveling at speeds
exceeding this posted limit?
b. If five vehicles are randomly and independently selected, what is the probability that at least
one is not exceeding the posted speed limit?
Question 5. (2.0/10)
a. A randomly selected sample of n = 16 students at a university is asked, “How much did you
spend for textbooks this semester?” The responses, in dollars, are
380, 290, 310, 200, 175, 450, 300, 350, 250, 150, 200, 320, 370, 404, 250, 420
Subject 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Before 91 88 95 81 86 79 84 79 87 86 75 87 93 85 77
After 92 90 94 83 84 89 85 78 87 91 74 89 86 89 78
At a 5% level of significance is there evidence that wearing the noise reduction head gear increases
worker productivity?
b. “Would you marry a person from a lower social class than your own?” Researchers asked this
question of a sample of 685 never-married students at two historically colleges in the South. Of the
349 men in the sample, 291 said “Yes.” Among the 336 women, 217 said “Yes.” At a 2% level of
significance is there reason to think that different proportions of men and women in this student
population would be willing to marry beneath their class?
Question 7. (1.0/10) Do heavier people burn more energy? We have data on the lean body mass
and resting metabolic rate for 12 women who are subjects in a study of dieting. Lean body mass,
given in kilograms, is a person’s weight leaving out all fat. Metabolic rate, in calories burned per
24 hours, is the rate at which the body consumes energy.
Mass 36.1 54.6 48.5 42.0 50.6 42.0 40.3 33.1 42.4 34.5 51.1 41.2
Rate 995 1425 1396 1418 1502 1256 1189 913 1124 1052 1347 1204
Determine the correlation coefficient for the above set of results and the equation of least-squares
regression line for predicting metabolic rate from body mass. Another woman has lean body mass
45 kilograms. What is her predicted metabolic rate?
I
3 1
kx (1 x ) dx 1 k 90
8
(4,5
0
pts) 1
9 0.5
EX 90 x 9 (1 x )dx ;
0
11
0.5
1
15
VX EX 2 EX 0.0124.
2
EX 2 90 x10 (1 x ) dx
0
22
y
14 0.5
Let the 70th percentile of the thickness be y. 90 x8 (1 x ) dx 0.7 y 0.56
0
25
4. a. X~B(12,1/3) because these following reason:
- 12 answers: either ‘correct’ or ‘incorrect’. 0,5
- Questions are answered independently of each other
- Probability of a correct answer is 1/3.
0,5
b. P(X<3)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)=0.181 (to 3 s.f)
1 Let p be the proportion of all adults in the country who at the time of the survey had
used wireless means for online access.
II
p 1262
2.17
p 1 p
0.0227
0,5
(5,5
2253 n
pts)
A 97% confidence interval for the proportion of all adults in the country who at the 0,5
time of the survey had used wireless means for online access is 0.5374;0.5828
2 Let µ be the true average arsenic concentration in all such water specimens.
n 10, s 4.1, x 24.3
0,5
s
2.262 2.9328
n
Hence, the 95% confidence interval for the true average arsenic concentration in all 0.5
such water specimens is x ; x 21.3672; 27.2328 .
3 Let µ be the true average time necessary to achieve a 100°F temperature of the
heating equipment.
H 0 : 15 ; H a : 15 .
0,5
n 42, s 2.2, x 16.5
z
x 15 42 4.4187 0.5
s
P _ val 0 0.05 or z ztb 1.96 0.5
We reject H0. There is the evidence to reject the claim.
Hence, the data cast doubt on the company’s claim.
4 Let µ1 , µ2 be the true average zinc mass of the two brands of size D batteries: 0,25
Duracell and Energizer, respectively.
H 0 : 1 2 ; H a : 1 2 .
0,5
n1 41, s1 2.5, x1 17.9 ; n2 51, s2 3.4, x2 19.4
x x
0.25
1 2
z 3.9567 P_value 0 0.02
2 2
s s
1
2
n1 n2
We reject H0 at = .02. There is evidence of a difference in true average zinc mass
for two types of batteries.
5 r = 0.9623895711: Strong relationship 0,25
Slope: B=0.008349892; y-Intercept: A= 1.759866075
The “best-fit” linear model is: y=1.759866075+0.008349892x; 0,25
Interpretation of the slope: Slope: B=0.008349892>0: Direct relationship 0,25
For every additional shear force, the fiber dry weight acquires an estimated
1.759866075 percent per kilogram.
If x = 132, the point estimate for the percent fiber dry weight is y=2.862051838. 0,25
HCMC UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY SOLUTION For FINAL EXAM, SEMESTER 2, 18-19
AND EDUCATION Subject: Mathematical Statistics for Engineers
HIGH QUALITY TRAINING FACULTY Course code: MATH130401E
-------------------------
Q Content pts
1 Let A be an event that there are both genders (male and female) in 5 students.
There are C505 ways to choose 5 students randomly.
0,5
There are A C205 C305 ways to choose 5 male or 5 female students.
A 5
C20 C305
The probability : P( A) 1 1 0.92542
C505 0,5
2 Let A1 be an event of selecting an individual affected by H1N1.
Let A2 be an event of selecting an individual not affected by H1N1.
Let C be an event of positive result.
P( A1 ) 0.005 ; P( A2 ) 0.995
P(C | A1 ) 0.97 ; P(C | A2 ) 0.02
By the law of total probability we find the probability of positive result:
0.5
P(C) P( A1 ) P (C | A1 ) P( A2 ) P(C | A2 )
(0.005)(0.97) (0.995)(0.02) 0.02475
Using Bayes formula, we find the probability that he is indeed affected by H1N1:
I P( A1.C) P( A1 ) P (C | A1 ) (0.005)(0.97) 0.5
P ( A1 | C) 0.1959
P(C) P (C) 0.02475
(4,5
3 4
4
pts) a/
f ( x) 1 k .x.( x 2 8) 1 k
1
495 0.5
4
4
b/ P ( X 3) x( x 2 8)dx 0.5798
3
495 0.5
Let Y be the number of ducks greater than 3 kg in 10 ducks. Then Y has the
binomial distribution with n=10; p= 0.5798
P (Y 4) C104 (1 0.5798)6 (0.5798) 4 0.13063 0.5
4. X N (6; 1.25) ; 6 ; 1.25
The probability that a light bulb has lifetime greater than 7 years
X 76 X
P ( X 7) P with Z N (0,1)
1.25
P ( Z 0.89) 1 (0.89) 0.1867 0,5
Let Y be the number of light bulbs greater than 7 years in 100 light bulbs. Then Y
has the binomial distribution with n=100; p=0.1867
n. p 18.67
Approximate to normal distribution 2 0,5
n. p.(1 p) 15.1843
X 25.5 18.67 X
P ( X 25) P ( X 25.5) P with Z N (0,1)
15.1843
P ( Z 1.75) (1.75) 0.9599
1a n 257; x 5.5768 ; s 0.7127 0,5
Let µ be the true average salary of a person in Company A.
s
2.58 0.1147 0,5
n
Hence, a 99% CI for true average salary of a person in Company A is
x ; x 5.4621;5.6915 .
0,5
z
x 6 n 9.519
s 0.5
0.02 ( z /2 ) 1 0.99 z /2 2.33
2
Because z z /2 : We reject H0 ; accept H a .
There is the evidence to reject the claim.
Hence, true average salary of a person in Company A is not 6 million/ month. 0.5
II 2a Let p1 be the proportion of respones with no incentive resulted.
(5,5 p2 the proportion of response including a chance to win a lottery .
pts)
H 0 : p1 p2 ; H a : p1 p2
75 66 75 66 141
n1 110 ; n2 98 ; f1 ; f2 ; f
110 98 110 98 208
z
f1 f 2 0.1286
1 1 0.5
f (1 f )
n1 n2
0.05 ; ( z ) 1 0.95 z 1.65
Because z z : We accept H0 .
0.5
The claim is wrong. The proportion of respones with no incentive resulted is equal to the
proportion of response including a chance to win a lottery .
2b Let p be the proportion of respones with no incentive resulted.
p 75
110 0.5
z
p 1 p
0.10347 z 2.33
n
( z ) (2.33) 0.99 0.5
z
x 250 n 2.6058
s 0.5
0.02 ( z ) 1 0.98 z 2.06
Because z z : We reject H0 ; accept H a .
The true average electric energy consumption of a household is greater than the stated
value . The claim is right.
0.5
2a Let p1 be the proportion of respones of resumes with “white” name.
p2 the proportion of response of resumes with “black” name.
H 0 : p1 p2 ; H a : p1 p2
220 160 220 160 19
n1 2400 ; n2 2600 ; f1 ; f2 ; f
2400 2600 2400 2600 250
z
f1 f 2 4.0164
1 1 0.5
f (1 f )
n1 n2
0.05 ; ( z ) 1 0.95 z 1.65
Because z z : We reject H0 ; accept H a .
0.5
The claim is right. The resume with a “black” name is not less likely to result in a
response than is a resume with a “white” name.
2b Let p be the proportion of responses of the first type. (“white” name)
p 220 ; z z 2.33
2400 0.5
z
p 1 p
0.01372
n
The 99% lower bound for the population proportion of responses of the first type: 0.5
p p p 0.105386
3 r = 0.996885: two variables X and Y have a linear regression relationship 0.5
Slope: B=60.0873; y-Intercept: A= -3.28968
The linear regression equation is: y=-3.28968+60.0873;
If x = 30, then y=1799.32932 0.5
HCMC UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY SOLUTION For FINAL EXAM, SEMESTER 1, 2020-2021
AND EDUCATION Subject: Mathematical Statistics for Engineers
HIGH QUALITY TRAINING FACULTY Course code: MATH130401E
-------------------------
Q Content Pts
1 Let A be an event that we get a triangle.
There are C133 ways to choose 3 points randomly. 0,25
There are A C62 .C71 C61 .C72 =231 0,5
A 21
The probability : P( A) 0.8076923077 0,25
26
2 Let A1 , A2 , A3 be the event of the customers use A95; A92; E5, respectively
Let C be the event thatthe customers fill their tanks
P( A1 ) 0.4 ; P( A2 ) 0.35 ; P( A3 ) 0.25
P(C | A1 ) 0.35 ; P(C | A2 ) 0.65 ; P(C | A3 ) 0.55
By the law of total probability we find the probability that the customers fill their
tanks:
P(C) P ( A1 ) P(C | A1 ) P( A2 ) P(C | A2 ) P( A2 ) P(C | A2 ) 0.505 0.5
Using Bayes formula, we find the probability that these customers use A92:
P( A2 .C) P( A2 ) P(C | A2 ) (0.35)(0.65)
P( A2 | C) 0.4504950495
P(C) P(C) 0.505 0.5
I
3 6
3
(4,5
a/
f ( x) 1 k ( x 2 10 x 24)dx 1 k
4
4
0.5
pts) 5
3
b/ P( X 5) ( x 2 10 x 24) dx 0.5
4
4
Let Y be the number of the products that we must select until finding a product less 0.5
than 5 gram.
x ; x 582.1691012;658.0708988 .
1b Let µ be the true average CO2 level in the population of all homes
H 0 : 600 ; H a : 600 .
0.25
z
x 600 n 1.039111095
s 0.5
0.02 ( z /2 ) 1 0.99 z /2 2.33
2
Because z z /2 : We accept H0.
the true average CO2 level in the population of all homes is equal to the stated value. The claim
is wrong. 0.5
II 2a Let p1 , p2 be the true proportion of such consumers who never apply for a rebate claim
(5,5 after purchasing the product A last year and this year, respectively.
pts)
H 0 : p1 p2 ; H a : p1 p2
300 200 300 200 5
n1 1200 ; n2 1000 ; f1 ; f2 ; f
1200 1000 1200 1000 22 0.25
z
f1 f 2 2.786522184
1 1 0.5
f (1 f )
n1 n2
0.05 ; ( z ) 1 0.95 z 1.65
Because z z : We reject H0 ; accept H a .
0.5
The claim is right. The true proportion of such consumers who never apply for a rebate
claim after purchasing the product A last year is greater than this year.
2b Let p be the true proportion of such consumers who never apply for a rebate claim after
purchasing the product A this year
p 200 ; ( z ) 0.97 z 1.89 0.5
1000
0.5
z
p 1 p
0.02390681911
n
The 97% lower bound for the population proportion of consumers who never apply for a
rebate claim after purchasing the product A this year:
p p p 0.1760931809
3 r = 0.98282017: two variables X and Y have a linear regression relationship 0.5
Slope: B=6.972803645; y-Intercept: A= 24626.22811
The linear regression equation is: y=24626.22811+6.972803645x;
0.5
SOLUTION TO FINAL EXAMINATION
Course name: MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS FOR ENGINEERS
SEMESTER 2 – ACADEMIC YEAR 2019-2020
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q1: Let Ai = hard drives from plant i , i = 1,2, 3 ,
B = a randomly selected hard drive is defective .25 points
3
157
( ) P (A ) P (B | A ) = .54 .04 + .35 .08 + .11 .12 = 2500
a. P B =
i =1
i i
= .0628 .25 points
P ( A ) P ( B | A ) .35 .08 70
P (A | B ) =
2 2
b. = = .4459 .5 points
P (B )
2
.0628 157
Q2:
X = number of defective tires you find before you finding 4 good tires
a.
→ X ~ NegBin 4,.95 ( )
2
(
P X 2 = ) C x =0
4 −1
x + 4 −1
.954 .05x .99777 .5 point
r (1 − p ) 4 r 1−p( )= 80
b. E X ( ) = = ,
p 19
( )
V X =
p 2
361
.5 points
1
C 5xC 204 −x 2109
(
P X 1 = ) x =0 C 4
=
2530
.8336 .5 points
25
X − 118
Q4: Let X = free speeds can best → X ~ N 118,13.12 , Z = ( ) 13.1
( )
→ Z ~ N 0,1 .25 points
180
(
a. P X 100 = 1 − −) = .915286 .25 points
131
b. Y = number of vehicles is not exceeding the posted speed limit
( )
→ Y ~ Bin 5, p , with p = P(X 100) = .084714 .5 points
( ) C ( )
5 −x
P Y 1 = x
5
px 1 − p .3576 .5 points
x =1
Q5:
20
(
z = .996 − 1 ) .008 −2.2361 Reject H a .25 points
a. A
= average worker productivity after wearing noise reduction device
B
= average worker productivity before wearing noise reduction device .25 points
Let d
= A
− B
Null hypothesis H 0 : d
=0 Alternative hypothesis Ha : d
0 .25 points
we have: nd = 15, d = 1.066666667, sd = 3.731462116
= .05 → t ,n −1
= 1.761
( )s
nd
t = d −0 1.1071 t ,n −1
→ Reject H a .5 points
d
That wearing the noise reduction head gear increases worker productivity is
wrong. .25 points
b. pm = proportions of men said " yes ", pw = proportions of women said " yes " .25 points