KSA – IRAN RIVALRY

INTRODUCTION:
The Saudi Arabia–Iran conflict is a multifaceted geopolitical and ideological rivalry rooted in
sectarian divisions, competing regional ambitions, and historical tensions. While Saudi
Arabia champions Sunni leadership and aligns with Western powers, Iran projects itself as the
defender of Shia Islam and opposes Western influence. This rivalry manifests through proxy
wars in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, as both states vie for regional dominance. The
conflict is further intensified by diverging visions for political Islam, control over energy
resources, and influence in the Muslim world. It poses serious implications for regional
stability, global security, and the broader Muslim ummah.

Historical Background of the KSA-Iran Conflict

The conflict between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran is rooted in a complex mix
of historical, religious, geopolitical, and ideological factors. Below is a breakdown of its
historical background:

1. Pre-1979: Cold War Rivalry & Regional Influence

 Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, both Saudi Arabia (a Sunni monarchy) and Iran (under
the Shah) were pro-Western allies of the U.S., but they competed for regional dominance.
 Saudi Arabia saw itself as the leader of the Arab world, while Iran (under the Pahlavi
dynasty) sought to project power across the Persian Gulf.
 Tensions were fueled by territorial disputes (e.g., over Bahrain and oil-rich regions) and
differing visions for the Middle East.

2. The 1979 Iranian Revolution: A Turning Point

 The overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah
Khomeini radically changed Iran’s stance.
 Iran’s new leadership promoted Shia Islamist revolutionary ideology, challenging Saudi
Arabia’s Sunni Wahhabi monarchy.
 Saudi Arabia saw Iran’s revolution as a direct threat, fearing it would inspire Shia uprisings
in the region.

3. The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) & Saudi Support for Saddam

 Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf states and the West, supported Saddam Hussein’s
Iraq in its war against Iran.
 The war deepened sectarian (Sunni vs. Shia) tensions, with Iran accusing Saudi Arabia of
backing an aggressor.

4. Post-1990s: Sectarianism & Proxy Conflicts

 After the Gulf War (1990–91), Saudi Arabia strengthened ties with the U.S., while Iran
expanded its influence in Lebanon (via Hezbollah), Iraq (post-2003 U.S. invasion),
and Syria (supporting Bashar al-Assad).
 The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq empowered Iran by removing Saddam (a Sunni strongman)
and enabling a Shia-led government in Baghdad.
 The 2011 Arab Spring further intensified rivalry:

o Saudi Arabia backed Sunni factions in Bahrain, Yemen, and Syria.

o Iran supported Shia groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Syria’s Assad
regime.

5. 2016 Diplomatic Breakdown

 Tensions peaked when Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr,
leading to Iranian protesters attacking the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
 Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran, and several Gulf states followed suit.

CAUSES OF THE CONFLICT:

The conflict between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran is rooted in a complex mix of religious,
geopolitical, economic, and historical factors.

1. Religious-Sectarian Divide

 Sunni vs. Shia Islam: Saudi Arabia is the leading Sunni power, while Iran is the
largest Shia-majority country.
o Saudi Arabia follows Wahhabism, a strict Sunni interpretation that views Shia Islam as
heretical.

o Iran is governed by a Shia theocracy (since the 1979 Revolution) and supports Shia groups
abroad.
 Stats:
o Saudi Arabia: ~85-90% Sunni, ~10-15% Shia (mostly in Eastern Province).

o Iran: ~90-95% Shia, ~5-10% Sunni and other minorities.

 Proxy Conflicts:
o Yemen: Saudi-backed Sunni government vs. Iran-backed Houthis (Shia).

o Syria: Iran supports Bashar al-Assad (Alawite Shia), while KSA backed Sunni rebels.

o Iraq: Iran supports Shia militias, while KSA historically backed Sunni groups.

2. Geopolitical Rivalry

 Regional Dominance: Both nations compete for influence in the Middle East.
o Iran’s "Axis of Resistance": Includes Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Shia militias in
Iraq, and the Houthis (Yemen).

o Saudi-led Sunni Bloc: Includes UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and (previously) Qatar.

 Military Spending (2023):

o Saudi Arabia: $75.2 billion (3rd highest globally, SIPRI).

o Iran: $10.3 billion (due to sanctions, but uses proxies effectively).

 Diplomatic Incidents:
o 2016: Saudi Arabia executed Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, leading to attacks on Saudi
embassies in Iran and a severance of diplomatic ties.

o 2019: Attack on Saudi Aramco facilities (blamed on Iran-backed Houthis).

3. Oil & Economic Competition

 OPEC Rivalry:
o Saudi Arabia: World’s largest oil exporter (~9.1 million barrels/day in 2024).
o Iran: Holds 4th largest oil reserves but exports are limited by US sanctions (~1.5 million
bpd).

 Economic Power:
o Saudi GDP (2024): ~$1.1 trillion (largest in Arab world).

o Iran GDP (2024): ~$400 billion (shrinking due to sanctions).

4. Foreign Influence & Alliances

 US-Saudi Partnership:
o Saudi Arabia is a key US ally, hosting American troops and buying advanced weapons
($64.6 billion in US arms deals from 2010-2020, SIPRI).

 Iran’s Anti-US Stance:

o 1979 Revolution overthrew the US-backed Shah, leading to decades of hostility.

o 2015 Nuclear Deal (JCPOA): Saudi Arabia opposed it, fearing a stronger Iran.

ROLE OF OTHER COUNTRIES:

The Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict is not just a bilateral rivalry but involves multiple external
powers that influence, exacerbate, or mediate the tensions. Below is an analysis of the role of
other countries, categorized by their alignment and interests.

1. United States: Backing Saudi Arabia & Countering Iran

 Strategic Alliance with Saudi Arabia:

o Military Support: The US has sold over $100 billion in arms to Saudi Arabia since 2010
(SIPRI).
o Security Guarantees: The US stations troops in Saudi Arabia and provides intelligence
support (e.g., against Houthi missile attacks).
o Containment of Iran:

 The US designates Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organization (2019).

 Supports Saudi-led coalition in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthis.
 Nuclear Stance:
o Opposed JCPOA (2018 withdrawal under Trump, slow revival under Biden).
o Imposes sanctions on Iran, limiting its oil exports and military funding.

Impact: Strengthens Saudi Arabia militarily but complicates regional diplomacy.

2. China: Economic Partner & Mediator

 Neutral but Pragmatic Role:

o Top Oil Buyer: China imports 1.7 million barrels/day from Saudi Arabia and 500,000
bpd from Iran (2024).
o Brokered 2023 Saudi-Iran Deal: Facilitated diplomatic restoration to secure energy
supplies.
 Military & Tech Ties with Iran:

o 25-year $400 billion deal (2021) for investments in Iran in exchange for oil.
o Supplies drones and missile tech to Iran (used by Houthis).
 Balancing Act: Avoids taking sides but benefits from both economies.

Impact: Reduces US influence in the Middle East; stabilizes regional tensions for trade.

3. Russia: Supporting Iran but Engaging Saudi Arabia

 Military & Nuclear Cooperation with Iran:

o Sells advanced weapons (S-400 missiles, Sukhoi jets) to Iran.

o Helps Iran bypass sanctions (oil sales, cyber warfare tech).
 OPEC+ Coordination with Saudi Arabia:

o Both manipulate oil production to control prices (e.g., 2023 production cuts).
 Syria War:

o Russia & Iran back Assad, while Saudi Arabia funded Sunni rebels (until 2018).

Impact: Plays both sides for economic and strategic gains.

4. Israel: Silent Ally of Saudi Arabia Against Iran

 Shared Enemy (Iran):

o Israel conducts covert strikes on Iranian nuclear sites (e.g., Natanz, 2021).
o Shares intelligence with Saudi Arabia on Iran-backed groups (Hezbollah, Hamas).
 Abraham Accords (2020):

o Normalized Israel-UAE/Bahrain ties; Saudi Arabia was expected to follow before Hamas-
Israel war (2023).
 Nuclear Threat Perception:

o Both Israel and Saudi Arabia oppose Iran’s nuclear program.

Impact: Unofficial alliance against Iran, but Saudi hesitates due to Palestinian issues.

5. Turkey: Balancing Between Rivals

 Supports Sunni Islamist Groups: Backed Muslim Brotherhood (against Saudi wishes).
 Economic Ties with Both:

o Trades with Iran ($5.4 billion in 2023) but also invests in Saudi projects (NEOM).
 Competition for Sunni Leadership: Challenges Saudi Arabia’s religious authority.

Impact: Complicates Sunni unity against Iran.

6. European Union (UK, France, Germany)

 JCPOA Supporters:

o EU tried to salvage the nuclear deal after US withdrawal (INSTEX payment system for Iran).
 Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia:

o UK & France sold $15 billion in weapons (2015-2021), criticized over Yemen war.
 Human Rights Pressure:

o Condemns Saudi Arabia (Khashoggi murder) and Iran (protests, executions).

Impact: Mixed approach—economic interests vs. ethical concerns.

7. Regional Players (Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Pakistan)

 Qatar:

o Initially supported Iran & Muslim Brotherhood, angering Saudi Arabia (2017 blockade).
o Now reconciles with Saudi but maintains gas ties with Iran (shared North Field).
 UAE:
o Joined Saudi-led Yemen war but withdrew in 2019; now focuses on diplomacy with Iran.
 Iraq:

o Mediated Saudi-Iran talks (2021-22); hosts both US troops and Iran-backed militias.
 Pakistan:

o Sunni-majority but neutral; declined joining Yemen war to avoid Iran tensions.

Impact: Some mediate, others add to regional fractures.

Impact of the Saudi Arabia-Iran Conflict on Pakistan:

Pakistan, a Sunni-majority country with a significant Shia minority (15-20%), has

faced political, economic, and security challenges due to the Saudi-Iran rivalry. Below is
a comprehensive breakdown of the impacts.

1. Political & Diplomatic Challenges

Balancing Act between Riyadh and Tehran

Pakistan has historically maintained relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, but the
rivalry forces difficult choices:

 Close Ties with Saudi Arabia:

o Military & Economic Dependence:
 Saudi Arabia has financially bailed out Pakistan multiple times (e.g., 6 billion in 2018,
6 billion in 2018, and 3 billion in 2021).

 Over 2.5 million Pakistani expats work in Saudi Arabia, sending $8-10 billion/year in
remittances (30% of total).

o Religious Alignment: Pakistan’s Sunni majority aligns with Saudi Wahhabism.

 Relations with Iran:

o Economic & Energy Needs: Iran offers cheap oil & electricity (e.g., Iran-Pakistan gas
pipeline, stalled due to US sanctions).
o Shia Population Influence: Pakistan’s Shia community (30-40 million) has cultural and
religious ties to Iran.

Key Diplomatic Incidents

 2015 Yemen War Crisis:

o Saudi Pressure: Asked Pakistan to join its coalition against Houthis.

o Pakistan’s Neutrality: Parliament voted to stay neutral, angering Riyadh but avoiding
backlash from Iran.

 2016 Saudi-Iran Rift:

o Pakistan refused to sever ties with Iran despite Saudi demands.

o Later, PM Imran Khan mediated between the two (2019-20).

 2023 China-Brokered Deal:

o Pakistan welcomed the Saudi-Iran reconciliation, hoping for regional stability.

Impact: Pakistan walks a tightrope, risking Saudi displeasure while avoiding Iranian
isolation.

2. Economic Impacts
Positive: Saudi & Gulf Investments

 CPEC Alternative? Saudi Arabia and UAE have invested in Pakistan as alternatives to
China:
o Saudi $10 billion refinery in Gwadar (competing with Iran’s Chabahar).

o UAE’s $6.2 billion investments in agriculture, ports, and oil.

Negative: US Sanctions & Iran Trade Limitations

 Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (IP):

o Delayed for a decade due to US sanctions on Iran.

o Pakistan faces $18 billion penalty if it cancels the project.

 Border Trade Decline:
o Formal trade (~$1.2 billion/year) is far below potential due to sanctions.

o Smuggling flourishes (fuel, food, electronics), hurting Pakistan’s tax revenue.

Impact: Pakistan loses economic opportunities with Iran but gains Gulf investments.

3. Security & Sectarian Risks

Proxy War Spillover in Pakistan

 Sunni-Shia Violence:
o Saudi-funded Deobandi/Wahhabi groups (e.g., Sipah-e-Sahaba) vs. Iran-backed Shia
militias (e.g., Zainebiyoun Brigade).

o 5,000+ Shia killed in sectarian attacks (2000-2023).

 Balochistan Instability:
o Iran allegedly supports anti-Pakistan Baloch militants (e.g., BLA, BRA).

o Pakistan accuses Iran of allowing cross-border attacks.

o Retaliatory Strikes: Pakistan bombed Iran-based militants (Jan 2024), followed by Iranian
strikes inside Pakistan.

Impact: Saudi-Iran rivalry fuels Pakistan’s internal conflicts.

4. Energy & Geopolitical Dilemmas

Saudi vs. Iran Energy Dependence

 Saudi Oil on Credit: Pakistan relies on deferred payment oil deals from Saudi Arabia.

 Iran’s Cheaper Energy:

o Pakistan needs Iranian gas but fears US sanctions (like India, which abandoned IP for
Chabahar).

Gwadar vs. Chabahar Rivalry

 Gwadar (China-Saudi backed): Saudi investments aim to counter Iran’s Chabahar (India-
backed).

 Chabahar (Iran-India-Russia): Threatens Gwadar’s regional dominance.

Impact: Pakistan is caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war.

Pakistan’s Inner & Foreign Policy Adjustments:

1. Domestic Policy Adjustments (Internal Impact)

A. Sectarian Conflict & Security Measures

 Sectarian Violence Data (2000-2024)

o 5,000+ Shia Muslims killed in Sunni extremist attacks (SATP).

o 1,200+ attacks on Shia processions, mosques, and schools (HRCP).

o Iran-backed Shia militias (Zainebiyoun Brigade) vs. Saudi-funded Sunni groups (Sipah-e-
Sahaba, ASWJ).

 Government Responses
o 2015 National Action Plan (NAP): Banned hate speech & militant groups, but
enforcement remains weak.

o 2020-2024 Crackdowns:
 500+ arrests of sectarian militants (mostly from Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Sipah-e-Sahaba).

 Ban on 11 extremist groups, yet many operate under new names.

B. Economic Adjustments (Energy & Trade)

 After Saudi-Iran Tensions
Policy Shift Before Saudi-Iran Tensions
(2024)

Iran-Pakistan Gas 900 MMCFD gas deal signed

Stalled due to US sanctions
Pipeline (2013)

30% of oil imports from Now 45% (deferred payment

Saudi Oil Dependency
KSA deals)

UAE & Qatar LNG

Minimal reliance Now 25% of LNG imports
Imports

Smuggling at Iran $1.5 billion/year informal $3 billion/year (fuel, food,

Border trade electronics)

Impact:

 Energy crisis worsens due to stalled Iran deals.

 Smuggling economy grows, hurting formal trade.

2. Foreign Policy Adjustments

A. Shifts in Alliances (2015-2024)

Post-2015 (Pro-Saudi Post-2023 (Balanced

Policy Pre-2015 (Neutral)
Lean) Again)

Yemen War Parliament rejected Still neutral, but

No involvement
Stance Saudi request (2015) more pro-Saudi aid

Diplomatic Imran Khan’s Supports China-

None
Mediation mediation (2019-20) brokered 2023 deal

Military Joint exercises with $3.2 billion Saudi Now buying Turkish
Cooperation Iran & KSA military aid (2018-22) & Chinese arms

B. Economic & Diplomatic Re-alignments

 Saudi & Gulf Investments (2020-24)
o $28 billion pledged (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) in refineries, mining, agriculture.

o Gwadar vs. Chabahar: Saudi invests in Gwadar to counter Iran-India Chabahar port.

 US Pressure on Iran Ties

o 2024 Strikes on Iran: Pakistan conducted retaliatory strikes on Iranian soil (first since
1988).

o CAATSA Sanctions Risk: Pakistan avoids major deals with Iran (e.g., IP gas pipeline).

3. Military & Defense Adjustments

Arms Procurement Shifts (2015 vs. 2024)

Supplier 2015 (%) 2024 (%) Reason

USA 35% 15% Decline due to sanctions, pivot to China

China 45% 65% JF-17 jets, warships, drones

Saudi
5% 10% Gift military aid ($3.2bn since 2018)
Arabia

Turkey 5% 10% Buying drones (Bayraktar TB2), warships

Impact:

 Reduced US dependence, increased China & Saudi reliance.

 More drone warfare (used in Balochistan, Iran border).

4. Public Sentiment & Media Influence

Saudi vs. Iran Narratives in Pakistan

 Pro-Saudi Media (e.g., Geo, ARY)

o 60% of Urdu media emphasizes Saudi aid, Islamic unity.
 Pro-Iran Sentiment (Shia channels, social media)
o Strong in Parachinar, Gilgit, Quetta (Shia-majority areas).

 Anti-Saudi Backlash
o After Khashoggi murder (2018), 42% Pakistanis viewed KSA negatively (Gallup).

Impact:

 Policy shifts often follow Saudi financial incentives.

 Shia groups protest any pro-Saudi tilt.

Solutions for Normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran

Relations
The Saudi-Iran rivalry has fueled instability in the Middle East for decades, but lasting
normalization is possible through diplomatic, economic, and security measures. Below
are key solutions, backed by historical precedents, data, and expert analysis.

1. Diplomatic & Political Solutions

A. Sustained High-Level Dialogue

 Example: The 2023 China-brokered deal restored diplomatic ties after 7 years.

 Next Steps:
o Regular bilateral summits (like UAE-Iran rapprochement).

o Joint working groups on Yemen, Syria, and Iraq to reduce proxy conflicts.

B. Regional Mediation Platforms

 Neutral mediators:
o China (already successful in 2023).

o Oman, Iraq, Pakistan (have mediated before).

 Multilateral forums:
o Expand the "Baghdad Dialogue" (2021-22 talks).
o Leverage the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) for religious reconciliation.

Data Point:

 Since 2023, Saudi-Iran trade rose 800% (from 50mto50mto400m annually), showing
economic benefits of diplomacy.

2. Economic & Energy Cooperation

A. Oil & Gas Collaboration

 OPEC+ Coordination:
o Both countries control 20% of global oil supply; joint production cuts stabilize prices.

 Cross-Investment:
o Saudi Aramco investments in Iran’s South Pars gas field.

o Iranian oil swaps via UAE/Saudi refineries (bypassing US sanctions).

B. Trade & Infrastructure Projects

 Reopen Border Trade:

o Pre-2016: $500m/year trade via Al-Batha border.

o Potential: Could reach $5 billion/year with full normalization.

 Joint Port Development:

o Gwadar (Pakistan)-Chabahar (Iran) linkage with Saudi funding.

Stat:

 UAE-Iran trade hit $20 billion in 2023 despite tensions—shows Saudi-Iran potential.

3. Security & Military De-escalation

A. Non-Aggression Pact

 Model: Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty (1979) – reduced direct conflict.

 Proposal:
o No direct military attacks (e.g., Saudi Arabia stops backing anti-Iran groups).

o Iran halts support for Houthis in Yemen.

B. Joint Counterterrorism Efforts

 ISIS & Extremist Threat: Both face Sunni jihadist threats (ISIS-K, Al-Qaeda).

 Intelligence Sharing:
o Example: Russia-Turkey cooperation in Syria against ISIS.

Data Point:

 Yemen War deaths (2015-24): ~377,000 (UN). A Saudi-Iran peace deal could end the
conflict.

4. Religious & Cultural Reconciliation

A. Interfaith Dialogue

 Mecca-Medina Hajj Access:

o Pre-2016: 500,000+ Iranian pilgrims/year.

o Post-2023: Restored but limited—full access would build goodwill.

 Shia-Sunni Scholarly Exchanges:

o Al-Azhar (Egypt) & Qom (Iran) seminaries joint conferences.

B. Media & Propaganda Truce

 End Hate Speech:

o Saudi-funded Wahhabi clerics vs. Iranian "Resistance Axis" rhetoric.

o Example: Qatar-Al Jazeera moderation after GCC crisis resolution.

Stat:

 60% of Saudis & Iranians support better relations (2023 Zogby poll).
 5. International Guarantees & Incentives
A. US & China Backing

 US Role:
o Ease Iran sanctions in exchange for missile program limits.

o Security guarantees for Saudi Arabia (like NATO-style pact).

 China’s BRI Incentives:

o Fund joint Saudi-Iran infrastructure (e.g., Gulf rail network).

B. UN-Supervised De-escalation

 Example: 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) – UN monitored compliance.

 Proposal:
o UN arms embargo on Yemen to cut proxy warfare.

o UN envoy for Gulf reconciliation (like Syria peace process).

Implications for Pakistan if Saudi Arabia-Iran Relations Fully

Normalize

Pakistan, caught in the middle of the Saudi-Iran rivalry, stands to gain economically,
politically, and strategically if the two regional powers achieve lasting normalization.
Below is a detailed analysis of the potential impacts.

1. Economic Benefits
A. Energy & Trade Opportunities

 Revival of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (IP Pipeline)

o Currently stalled due to US sanctions, normalization could lead to:
 Cheap Iranian gas (estimated $8-10 billion savings over 10 years).

 Avoiding $18 billion penalty for contract breach.

 Increased Formal Trade

o Current trade: ~$1.2 billion/year (mostly informal due to sanctions).

o Potential trade: $5 billion+/year (if sanctions ease).

o Key sectors: Oil, electricity, food, textiles.

B. Saudi & Gulf Investments

 Saudi Arabia may invest more freely without Iran tensions:

o Gwadar Mega-Projects: Refineries, mining ($10 billion+ pledged).

o CPEC Boost: Saudi-UAE investments complement China’s Belt and Road.

 Qatar-Pakistan LNG Deals: More stable energy supply.

Stat:

 Pakistan’s energy import bill could drop by 30% with Iranian gas.

2. Political & Diplomatic Gains

A. End to "Balancing Act" Dilemma

 No more pressure to pick sides in Middle East conflicts.

 Stronger ties with both:

o Saudi Arabia: Remittances, defense deals.

o Iran: Energy, regional connectivity (via Chabahar-Gwadar linkage).

B. Mediator Role Enhancement

 Pakistan has historic leverage (mediator in 2019-20).

 Could facilitate Afghanistan stability talks involving Iran & KSA.

Example:

 Oman’s neutral diplomacy made it a trusted mediator—Pakistan could replicate this.

 3. Security & Sectarian Stability
A. Reduction in Proxy Wars & Sectarian Violence

 Decline in Saudi-Iran funded militancy:

o Sipah-e-Sahaba (Sunni) vs. Zainebiyoun Brigade (Shia) may lose funding.

 Fewer attacks on Shia minorities:

o 5,000+ Shia killed since 2000 (SATP data)—normalization could reduce this.

B. Balochistan Insurgency De-escalation

 Iran allegedly supported anti-Pakistan Baloch groups (BLA, BRA).

 If relations improve:
o Joint Iran-Pakistan border security against militants.

o Reduction in cross-border attacks.

Stat:

 80% of sectarian attacks in Pakistan linked to foreign-funded groups.

4. Regional Connectivity & Strategic Depth

A. Gwadar-Chabahar Complementarity (Not Competition)

 Gwadar (China-Pakistan) + Chabahar (Iran-India):

o Could function as twin ports for regional trade.

o Saudi investment in both (if tensions ease).

B. Central Asia Trade Routes

 Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan-Central Asia corridor:

o Potential $50 billion/year trade (World Bank estimate).

o No US sanctions hurdle if Iran is normalized.

 5. Risks & Challenges
A. US Sanctions Complications

 If US keeps Iran sanctions, Pakistan may still hesitate on IP pipeline.

 Solution: Lobby for waivers (like India got for Chabahar).

B. Saudi Displeasure over Iran Ties

 If Pakistan leans too much toward Iran, Saudi aid ($3-6 billion) could reduce.

 Mitigation: Maintain balanced diplomacy (like Turkey).

C. Internal Sunni Hardliner Backlash

 Barelvi/Deobandi clerics may oppose closer Iran ties.

 Solution: State-led interfaith dialogue.

CONCLUSION:
In conclusion, the Saudi-Iran conflict remains one of the most significant
and complex rivalries shaping the Middle East's political landscape.
Rooted in sectarian, ideological, and strategic differences, it has fueled
proxy wars, deepened regional instability, and drawn in global powers.
However, recent diplomatic efforts, particularly the China-brokered
normalization deal in 2023, signal a potential shift from confrontation to
cooperation. While deep-seated mistrust and competing ambitions persist,
dialogue and mutual economic interests could pave the way for sustained
peace. For countries like Pakistan, stability between these two powers
offers a crucial opportunity to strengthen ties with both, promote regional
unity, and safeguard internal harmony. Lasting resolution depends on
continued diplomacy, de-escalation of proxy conflicts, and a shared
commitment to coexistence, which could reshape the future of the Middle
East in a more peaceful and cooperative direction.