Argus Potash

Formerly Argus FMB Potash

Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PRICES

Key potash prices $/t

Focus remains on the east 8 May 1 May ±
Attention remains largely on the East. Pupuk Indonesia is Argus standard MOP index, points 130.457 129.274 t
thought close to awarding 125,000t of standard MOP under MOP - fob standard bulk
its recent tender at the prevailing offer price of $360/t cfr Vancouver 267-321 267-316 t
MOP - cfr standard bulk
but no official awards have been made. In Malaysia, more
Southeast Asia 350-370 350-365 t
plantation tenders have emerged, while speculation on new
MOP - granular bulk
India and China contract prices also continues. Meanwhile, US Nola fob, $/st 315.0-320.0 315.0-320.0 34
granular MOP demand in the west is subsiding in places like Thailand/Vietnam cfr 365-390 365-390 34
the US and Europe but prices are unlikely to dip basis an Brazil cash cfr 360-370 355-365 t

overall shortness in supply globally. But Brazilian demand Europe cfr, €/t 340-360 340-360 34
Australia cfr 400-415 400-415 34
remains strong and granular MOP prices have moved higher.
South Africa cfr 385-397 375-397 t
SOP - fob standard bulk
MARKET DRIVERS Northwest Europe, €/t 585-610 585-610 34

To access the online Argus Fertilizer Price Guide click here

Belarusian MOP exports hit record high in April

Belarusian MOP exports reached a record high in April of
1.12 mn t, despite works at Belaruskali's mine which were Argus standard MOP index
expected to lower exports. The hike is partly due to more 135
output of pink MOP at its other mines to meet strong global
130
demand.
125
Maintenance hits Russian MOP exports
120
Total Russian MOP exports in April were flat on the year but
19pc lower compared with March because of maintenance at 115 hh
the Eurochem and Uralkali mines. Eurochem's exports fell by
110
41pc while Uralkali's were down by 7pc from March.
105
India MOP stocks drop
100
Indian MOP stocks fell by around 700,000t from the start of
May 24 Sep 24 Jan 25 May 25
April to around 1.32 mn t at the start of May.
Index rebased to 100 as of 1 June 2017  Source: Argus, weighted using IFA export data

30-60 DAY OUTLOOK

DATA & DOWNLOAD UPDATES
„ Brazilian MOP imports
Firm „ Indian MOP imports
Pupuk’s likely award at $360/t cfr will provide a new
„ US potash trade flow
benchmark in the region as well as a guide for India and
China contract talks, but this will largely depend on the „ Ukrainian MOP imports
timing of the conclusion of the contracts. Prices are set to „ Russian potash exports
remain firm and the longer India and China waits, the larger „ Russian and Belarusian potash rail shipments
the risk of a higher price.

Available on the Argus Publications App

 Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

Key MOP prices $/t Potash prices $/t

8 May 1 May ±

MOP cfr Brazil MOP cfr NWE Spot prices

MOP cfr SE Asia MOP fob NOLA Argus standard MOP index, points 130.457 129.274 +1.18
1,250 MOP – fob standard bulk
Vancouver 267-321 267-316 +2.50
1,000 Northwest Europe 283-379 283-382 -1.50
Baltic/Black Sea 262-302 265-288 +5.50
750 hhhhhh Jordan 281-371 283-376 -3.50
Israel 280-370 282-375 -3.50
500 Chile 291-377 291-380 -1.50
Vietnam bagged 350-355 350-355 nc
250
MOP – fob granular bulk
Vancouver 316-341 316-341 nc
0
Northwest Europe 308-391 308-393 -1.00
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Baltic/Black Sea 297-327 288-325 +5.50
MOP Fundamentals mn t Jordan 334-383 333-387 -1.50
Israel 307-382 312-386 -4.50
2023* 2024* 2025**
Chile 343-389 341-391 nc
Demand 68.3 72.7 74.4 MOP – cfr standard bulk
Achievable production 82.7 84.5 85.3 Southeast Asia 350-370 350-365 +2.50
Operating rate (production/capacity) 83% 86% 87% Europe, €/t 330-350 330-350 nc
Production 69 73 74 MOP – fob granular bulk
*estimated; ** projected — Argus Media US Nola, $/st 315.0-320.0 315.0-320.0 nc
MOP – cfr granular bulk
Brazil cash 360-370 355-365 +5.00
ASIA Europe, €/t 340-360 340-360 nc
Australia 400-415 400-415 nc
South Africa 385-397 375-397 +5.00
Thailand/Vietnam 365-390 365-390 nc
China SOP – fob standard bulk
Major domestic producers QHSL and Zangge have lowered Northwest Europe, €/t 585-610 585-610 nc
their first-stop prices to Yn2,900/t from Yn3,050/t for 60pc SOP – fob granular
standard MOP for May shipment, reflecting the slowdown in Northwest Europe bulk, €/t 590-660 590-660 nc
East Asia bagged 595-610 595-610 nc
demand because the spring buying season for NPK producers
Nutrient values
has now ended. NPK producers are also understood to be MOP fob northwest Europe K2O 552 554 -2.00
holding enough stocks of MOP after the release of reserves SOP fob northwest Europe K2O 1,321 1,321 nc
last month. Implied premium for low-chlorine
769 767 +2.00
product
The price cut from these two major producers has
changed market sentiment. Market sentiment had been Latest Previous
Contract prices
boosted by firm urea and MAP prices before the price cut,
MOP – fob standard bulk
and some suppliers had raised MOP offers. But some buyers Vancouver 244-248 242-248 +1.0
have now reportedly cancelled deals done earlier this week Northwest Europe 230-235 222-230 +6.5
after the price drop. Sellers and buyers are now in wait-and- Baltic/Black Sea 203-213 203-211 +1.0
see mode. Jordan 238-246 238-244 +1.0
Israel 233-243 233-241 +1.0
Domestic prices for imported MOP are stable as the
MOP – cfr standard bulk
market digests the Yn150/t price cut from major domestic India 180 days 283 319 -36
producers. Ex-warehouse prices for port-side 62pc white China 273 307 -34
crystal MOP are around Yn3,150/t while prices for Laotian
60pc powder MOP range Yn2,900-Yn3,000/t.
Potash prices $/t
Some suppliers are considering whether to follow the price
Month Previous Month ±
cut or hold their prices at the current level. One supplier
MOP – dap standard bulk
reported receiving more enquiries, but bids are lower.
China Apr 323 Mar 313 +10.0
The price cut from domestic producers may stabilise
domestic prices further albeit at a lower level, which should

Page 2 of 13

Issue Ref: 455108

Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

benefit contract talks. On cross-border trade, the May con- 314/t cfr. Delivery of this cargo is understood to have been
tract has still not been signed. delayed from the first quarter.
MOP port stocks reached 2.03mn t as of the end of April,
down by 327,000t from the end of March, and by 1.05mn t Malaysia
year-on-year. National Farmers Organisation (Nafas) has issued a tender to
buy 37,000t of MOP, closing on 13 May. The destination port
India and shipping details for this cargo are unclear. Offers should
Indian MOP stocks were around 1.32 mn t as of 1 May, down remain valid for 30 days after the tender closing date.
from around 1.4 mn t a month earlier. An NPK producer has also issued a tender seeking various
fertilizers including 7,000t of standard MOP.
Southeast Asia Around 200,000t of standard MOP is expected to arrive in
Standard MOP prices rose by $5/t at the high-end to $350- May for two importers. But recent labour shortages because
370/t cfr, while those for granular MOP were steady at $365- of the Eid holiday in April has caused a bottleneck in port
390/t cfr Thailand/Vietnam. operations and worsened port congestion at Bintulu. As a
Domestic MOP prices across the region have also started result, discharge rates are likely to be slower than usual.
to rise, especially in Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand, as buy-
ers start to return for more volumes. Thailand
But standard MOP cargoes that have recently arrived or Importers have raised domestic prices for granular MOP
scheduled to arrive in May and June are priced much lower in line with rising global prices and emerging domestic
than prevailing market prices, which may weigh on domestic demand. Granular MOP is now primarily trading at 12,200-
prices. 12,300 baht/t bulk ex-warehouse, up from 11,900 baht/t
a week earlier. And prices are expected to rise further to
Indonesia around 12,500 baht/t ex-warehouse by mid-May.
Pupuk Indonesia is reportedly intending to award 125,000t of Thailand imported nearly 280,000t of MOP in the first
standard MOP under its recent tender at the prevailing offer quarter of this year, up by 41pc on the year, latest data on
price of $360/t cfr though no official awards have yet been GTT show. There was a major hike in arrivals from Laos,
made. Jordan and Germany. Imports from Laos were up by 60pc
Pupuk requested that the validity of the offers to be on the year to 65,900t, reflecting higher granulation capac-
extended again to 16 May after it requested an extension to ity from both Laotian producers. Arrivals from Jordan grew
11 May last week. This extension has been accepted by the nearly 2.5 times on the year to 42,000t and Germany’s K+S
suppliers. delivered 37,500t, up from 3,000t a year ago. Imports from
The company had requested 175,000t of white standard Canada rose to 69,400t, from 64,000t a year ago, whereas
MOP and 20,000t of red standard MOP. deliveries from Belarus nearly halved on the year to 27,400t.
Domestic standard MOP prices are stable at 5,700-6,000 March arrivals accounted for 126,800t, which is the highest
rupiah/kg ($346-364/t) fot bagged, excluding VAT. Around monthly volume during the quarter. This includes 30,500t
~
25,000t of standard MOP will arrive in May for PT Petrokimia from Canada, 27,400t from Belarus and 25,000t from Laos.
Gresik for its NPK production, reportedly priced at $262-
India MOP vessel line-up
Jan-Apr 25 (t) 1,025,968 ± % Jan-Apr 24 44%
Seller/Buyer Vessel Tonnes Load Port Discharge Port Arrival

Total 209,301 April

Total 315,987 May
Total 450,464 June
Total 233,290 July
Total 270,592 August
Total 386,819 September
Total 549,714 October
Total 761,534 November
Total 188,236 December
Total 370,751 January
Total 460,538 February
Total 49,492 March
Total 145,187 April
Pacific Rim International Fetilizer/
Kronos 15,000 Kronshtadt New Mangalore 4-May
PPL

Page 3 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

Granular MOP bulk cfr Thailand Vietnam $/t

EUROPE

400
390 Italy
380 Two major suppliers are offering granular MOP at €350-360/t
370 cfr bulk, while there are unconfirmed reports of a trader
360 sale at €315-320/t cfr.
350 hhhh
340
Benelux
330
Weaker granular MOP demand is starting to weigh on
320
delivered prices to Benelux ports. But so far, prices are
310
holding at €355-360/t fca Antwerp.
300
9 May 24 5 Sep 24 9 Jan 25 8 May 25
Germany
Vietnam K+S has adjusted the nutrient content of its Korn-KALI
An NPK producer recently bought around 7,000t of standard fertilizer slightly, which will now contain 38pc K2O, 6pc
MOP for loading in June at $350-365/t cfr. The cargo is MgO and 12pc SO3. The K2O and SO3 content is down from
expected to arrive in Vietnam in late July. 40pc K2O and 13pcSO3. The change will take effect for the
Domestic prices for standard and granular MOP have 2025-26 fertilizer season. The adjustment is a result of the
strengthened on the month to around 9,500 dong/kg and company’s increasing focus on dry production processes
10,100 dong/kg bagged ex-warehouse, in line with firming as part of its Werra 2060 project, which was announced
international prices. in October 2022 and aims to extend the service life of the
The Eagle Trader arrived in Vietnam on 1 May and dis- producer’s largest potash plant until 2060.
charged around 20,000t of Russian pink standard MOP and K+S will increasingly focus on growing its portfolio of
5,500t of white standard MOP. The cargo was reportedly specialty fertilizers including Korn-KALI in the international
agreed in the $290s/t cfr in late February for March ship- market. The product is already well-established in the Ger-
ment. man market.
Vietnam is expected to receive around 150,000t of mostly New prices are expected to be announced for KornKali
standard MOP in May and June, which was mainly priced in within the next couple of weeks.
the $290s-300s/t cfr. Vietnamese demand has been strong
in recent months as importers rushed to secure cargoes and
domestic sales before 1 July, when Vietnam’s 5pc VAT takes
sMOP and gMOP Europe cfr price comparison €/t
effect.
Standard MOP Europe cfr Granular MOP Europe cfr
Laos 380

Prices for standard MOP in bags are stable at $350-355/t 370

fob. Producers plan to gradually raise volumes offered to 360
southeast Asia to meet strong regional demand, while at the
350
same time continuing to ship cargoes to China.
340 hhhhhh
Asia Potash loaded 27,000t of MOP at the newly con-
structed wharf no.3 at Vung Ang port in Ha Tinh, Vietnam 330
on 28 April, the first MOP loading at this wharf. The vessel 320
is bound for Zhenjiang port in China. Asia Potash had signed 310
a cooperation agreement with the port in March 2024 for
300
wharf no.3 to be a dedicated terminal for it to load MOP 25 Jan 24 9 May 24 22 Aug 24 5 Dec 24 27 Mar 25
vessels, which could ensure higher efficiency for their export
business in view of its capacity expansion plans.
Vung Ang port now has three wharfs and can handle ves-
sels of up to 45,000dwt and container ships of 4,000 TEUs,
according to Vietnam’s Department of Maritime and Inland
Waterway Administration.

Page 4 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

FSU Uralkali began maintenance in early April, which it said

would reduce production by at least 300,000t in the second
quarter of this year. But given that the firm is likely to have
Russia built up stocks ahead of the scheduled works, the volume
Eurochem works hit Russian MOP exports in April cut is expected to be seen in data for later in the quarter.
Russian MOP rail shipments fell by 19pc in April from March
because of reduced output at two mines operated by major Russian MOP rail shipments by producer
potash producer Eurochem owing to maintenance.
'000t
1,400 Uralkali Eurochem 2024
Russian MOP transported by rail in April — excluding
product sent to the domestic market — fell to 1.08mn t 1,200

from 1.33mn t in March. But this was in line with the volume 1,000

shipped by rail in the same month last year at 1.08mn t. 800

Eurochem shipped 243,264t by rail in April, down by 41pc 600
from 415,085t in March, after reductions to shipments from
400
its Usolskiy and VolgaKaliy mines. The producer announced
200
in March that it would reduce its output by the equivalent of
0
around 100,000 t/yr in the second quarter because of works Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
at both of these mines.
The producer did not deliver any MOP by rail to China for 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
the first time this year in April, reflecting the seasonal slow-
down in Chinese demand. Eurochem resumed rail shipments
of granular MOP to China in December, having last sent prod- Belarus
uct by rail to the country in March 2023. Belarusian MOP exports hit record high in April despite
Russia's largest potash producer, Uralkali, shipped 841,274t works
by rail in April, most of which went to St Petersburg port. Belarusian rail shipments of MOP reached a record high
This was down by 7pc compared with 907,710t in March, but in April, despite expectations that major work at a mine
was 6pc higher than in April last year. operated by state-owned Belaruskali would significantly
The company's January-April MOP shipments were higher reduce exports in the first half of the year.
than a year earlier, rising to 4.7mn t from 4.1mn t in the Belarusian MOP moved by rail in April stood at 1.12mn t,
same period in 2024. up by nearly 200,000t from the same month last year. The

St Petersburg MOP vessel line-up: Jan-Mar (incl combo shipments) *not final destination
Vessel DWT Departure Destination Country Destination Port

Total 935,015 January

Total 797,591 February
Total 1,151,113 March
Total 641,176 April
Common Galaxy 63,172 5-May TBC TBC
Mykonos Dawn 3,788 5-May TBC TBC

Bronka MOP vessel line-up: Jan 2024-Mar 2025 (incl combo shipments) *not final destination
Vessel DWT Departure Destination Country Destination Port

Total 509,106 January

Total 656,749 February
Total 353,820 March
Total 521,605 April
Total 196,253 May
Total 428,146 June
Total 99,345 July
Total 435,252 August
Total 497,774 September
Total 12,150 October
Total 31,770 November
Total 75,830 December
Total 89,000 March
Total 264,420 April
Philippakos 56,698 5-May Malaysia Bintulu

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Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

Belarusian rail shipments to Russian ports and China

country's year-to-date exports rose to 4.08mn t, up by 28pc
on the year. '000t
1,200 Bronka St Petersburg Ust-Luga China 2024
The increase in exports was unexpected after Belaruskali
1,000
in January announced production cuts of white standard
MOP between January and June owing to the installation of 800

new equipment at its fourth mine. It was estimated that ex- 600
ports of this product would be reduced by about 1mn t over
400
the full six-month period because of the work.
It is understood that Belaruskali has since increased pro- 200

duction of pink MOP at its other mines to meet strong global 0

demand. These additional volumes have largely been sent to Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Brazil and southeast Asia. The higher recorded railings also

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
reflect volumes transported in April to make up for delayed
deliveries from earlier in the year. Belarus' MOP rail ship-
ments in February were the lowest since March 2023 at just LATIN AMERICA
over 880,000t because Russian Railways prioritised other
commodities that month, reducing the amount allocated for
Belarusian MOP. Moreover, at least some of the additional Mexico
quantities are likely to have been shipped by rail from stock It has emerged that granular MOP was sold at $390/t cfr for
during the first quarter. April shipment but suppliers are now targeting levels above
Just over 540,000t of MOP was railed to Russia's Bronka $390/t cfr.
port in April, representing nearly half of total monthly
railings from Belarus, and roughly in line with monthly Ecuador
levels this year. The Russian port of Ust-Luga saw the most Granular MOP is priced at $380/t cfr.
dramatic increase in April, receiving 300,930t of MOP, up by
63pc from March. Brazil
Belaruskali sent 116,940t of MOP by rail to China in April, Granular MOP prices have moved up by $5/t to $360-
reflecting an 18pc decrease from the previous month and 370/t cfr. Availability for June loading is now limited and
a fall of 7pc on the year. Most of Belarus' white standard suppliers are targeting levels closer to the upper end of
MOP moves to China, and the timing of the production cut this price range and above. A sale of 7,500t of granular
is crucial as China is expected to settle a new standard MOP MOP was reported at $375/t cfr for June loading but this is
contract before the end of the second quarter. unconfirmed.
The data also show that no volumes were sent to Iran after Most suppliers are now focused on July sales with offers
small cargoes were railed there in February and March. mostly at a minimum of $370/t cfr. Belarusian MOP is also on
Despite the overall increase in Belarusian exports this offer for July at the same level.
year, MOP availability remains tight because demand is so
strong, in part owing to its relative affordability compared
Rondonopolis barter rates, 60kg bag per 1t NPK
with nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products. Expecta-
tions of scarcity are also supported by planned reductions Soybeans Corn
60
in MOP production in the second quarter of this year by two
major Russian producers, Uralkali and Eurochem.
50

40
hhhh
30

20

10
Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25

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Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

Brazil Potash line-up: Selected May berthings — Unimar

± % Jan-
Jan-April25 total (t): 3,875,712 -28% May total: 1,327,388 ± % May 24: -19%
May 24:
Port Vessel Charterer Origin Product Volume Receiver ETA ETB

Santarem Desert Lion Canpotex Canada MOP 50,904 Canpotex 13-Apr 3-May
Rio Grande Star Pisces TBC Russia MOP 24,143 Piratini 3-May 3-May
Pecem Pacific Tulip 1St Berth Ourofertil China Polysulphate 5,000 Ourofertil 20-Apr 4-May
Paranagua Pisti Twin Castle Russia MOP 31,456 Fertipar 27-Apr 5-May
Paranagua Pisti Twin Castle Russia MOP 20,970 Fertigran 27-Apr 5-May
ICL Fertili-
Sao Francisco Do Sul Eleni M Israel MOP 20,830 Ourofertil 20-Apr 5-May
zantes
Vila Do Conde Princess Shaimaa Eurochem TBC MOP 31,000 Eurochem 23-Apr 5-May
Paranagua Iokasti Gs Uralkali Russia MOP 24,854 Ad. Sudoeste 24-Apr 6-May
Paranagua Iokasti Gs Uralkali Russia MOP 9,708 Coonagro 24-Apr 6-May
Captain Lucas 2Nd
Rio Grande Canpotex Canada MOP 23,394 Mosaic 2-May 6-May
Berth
Captain Lucas 2Nd
Rio Grande Canpotex Canada MOP 9,500 Cibra 2-May 6-May
Berth
Dead Sea Inpek Fertili-
Santos Nord Madeira Canada MOP 10,000 6-May 6-May
Works zantes
Dead Sea
Santos Nord Madeira Canada MOP 4,400 K+S 6-May 6-May
Works
Orion
Santos Nord Allegro Canada SOP 5,000 Cibra 3-May 6-May
Rodos
Vila Do Conde Asl Sakura Cibra Australia MOP 25,000 Cibra 29-Apr 6-May
Vitória Bc Ambition Fertipar Russia MOP 12,000 Fertipar 6-May 6-May
Itacoatiara Pollux 1St Berth TBC TBC MOP 20,000 TBC 4-Apr 7-May
Itacoatiara Pollux 1St Berth TBC TBC Polysulphate 10,000 TBC 4-Apr 7-May
Santos Rostrum Singapore Purefert Spain SOP 11,151 Adufertil 7-May 7-May
Santos Rostrum Singapore Purefert Spain SOP 3,150 Fertipar 7-May 7-May
Santos Navios Lyra Canpotex Canada MOP 32,250 Mosaic 1-May 7-May
St Petersburg Haato Enbel Russia MOP 49,790 Fertipar 27-Apr 8-May
St Petersburg Haato Enbel Russia MOP 4,000 Tecnogran 27-Apr 8-May
Icl Fertili-
Paranagua Eleni M Israel MOP 25,200 Ad. Araguaia 27-Apr 8-May
zantes
Santos Hsl Honolulu Canpotex TBC MOP 17,000 LDC 4-May 10-May
Santos Hsl Honolulu Canpotex TBC MOP 13,363 Adufertil 4-May 10-May
Aratu Eliki TBC TBC MOP 8,000 Sqm Vitas 12-May 12-May
Paranagua Navios Lyra Canpotex Canada MOP 13,650 Canpotex 7-May 12-May
Rio Grande Iokasti Gs Unifertil Russia MOP 9,708 Unifertil 12-May 12-May
Rio Grande Common Spirit Fertistream TBC MOP 18,200 Unifertil 13-May 13-May
Rio Grande Bc Ambition Coxilha United States MOP 10,000 Coxilha 13-May 13-May
Tubarao Flat Eurochem Russia MOP 33,000 Eurochem 6-May 13-May
Aratu Captain Christos TBC TBC MOP 8,085 TBC 14-May 14-May
Paranagua Pescadores Sw Canpotex Canada MOP 60,000 Canpotex 14-May 14-May
Paranagua Unity Moon TBC TBC MOP 33,000 TBC 9-May 14-May
Paranagua Nord Madeira K+S Canada MOP 45,000 K+S 11-May 14-May
Santos Star Runner TBC Estonia SOP 40,000 Cmoc 14-May 14-May
Rio Grande Blacky Mosaic Canada MOP 18,189 Mosaic 15-May 15-May
Antonina Lapis Lazuli Uralkali Russia MOP 14,500 Uralkali 16-May 16-May
Aratu Peaceful Seas TBC TBC MOP 10,000 Fertimaxi 17-May 17-May
Rio Grande Eliki Yara Israel MOP 27,700 Orion Rodos 15-May 17-May
Sao Francisco Do Sul Turicum Canpotex Canada MOP 10,183 Mosaic 5-May 17-May
Sao Francisco Do Sul Turicum Canpotex Canada MOP 4,750 Cibra 5-May 17-May
Vila Do Conde Yangtze Legend Eurochem Egypt MOP 30,000 Eurochem 24-Apr 17-May
Santarem Ultra Cory Canpotex TBC MOP 49,504 Canpotex 8-May 18-May
Itaqui Sun Plenty 2Nd Berth Enbel United States MOP 8,000 Gees 29-Apr 19-May
Sao Francisco Do Sul Draftdodger Enbel Russia MOP 54,000 Eleva 11-May 19-May
Vitória Lausanne Eurochem China MOP 7,700 Eurochem 19-May 19-May
Paranagua Just Fertistream Russia MOP 35,000 Fertistream 15-May 21-May
Rio Grande Captain Christos TBC Israel MOP 11,000 Piratini 21-May 21-May

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Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

Rio Grande Captain Christos TBC Israel MOP 8,086 Timac Agro 21-May 21-May
Rio Grande Eleoussa TBC Russia MOP 21,500 Enbel 21-May 21-May
Captain Christos 1St
Rio Grande Yara Israel MOP 9,000 Yara 21-May 21-May
Berth
Vila Do Conde Resolute Bay Fertz Russia MOP 5,000 Fertz 25-Apr 21-May
Rio Grande Turicum Canpotex Canada MOP 28,843 Mosaic 22-May 22-May
Rio Grande Turicum Canpotex Canada MOP 4,750 Cibra 22-May 22-May
Eurochem
Eurochem Fert.
Itaqui Akson Adam Fert. Russia MOP 3,000 3-May 23-May
Tocantins
Tocantins
Paranagua Tulpar Uralkali Russia MOP 23,500 Uralkali 19-May 24-May
Paranagua Peaceful Seas TBC TBC MOP 40,000 TBC 24-May 24-May
Santarem Gemma Canpotex Canada MOP 95,000 Canpotex 29-Apr 24-May
Itaqui Adastra Yara Israel MOP 9,500 Yara 10-May 26-May
Itaqui Adastra Yara Israel MOP 6,700 Amaggi 10-May 26-May
Vila Do Conde Supra Baron TBC TBC MOP 13,236 TBC 4-May 26-May
Itaqui Corinthian Spire Canpotex Canada SOP 29,588 Mosaic 17-May 28-May
Aratu Zoe TBC TBC MOP 7,000 Heringer 29-May 29-May
Itaqui Theodora Fertgrow Russia MOP 10,000 Fertipar 17-May 29-May
Rio Grande Sun Plenty Enbel Russia MOP 9,300 Enbel 31-May 31-May
Santarem Berge Galdhopiggen Mosaic TBC MOP 4,099 Mosaic 4-May 31-May

AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST NORTH AMERICA

Nigeria US
There are reports that Nigeria will open up imports for Granular MOP prices at Nola were unchanged week-over-
potash to the private sector next year. Currently, the Nigeria week on limited demand.
Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) imports all potash Granular MOP prices were steady at $315-320/st fob, with
into the country but importers expect that they will be able the low end based on offers and the high end underpinned
to buy their needs directly from 2025. by loaded and May delivery barge sales.
Steady planting progress was noted across the Corn Belt
South Africa this week, with 40pc of corn already planted nationwide as
At least 5,000t of granular MOP has been sold at $385/t cfr of 4 May, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
for May loading, which has lifted the low end of this week’s Nutrien is forecasting global potash shipments in the range
range to $385-397/t cfr. of 71mn-75mn t. The company said the high end encom-
passes the potential for strong underlying global consump-
Granular MOP bulk cfr South Africa $/t tion and the low end encompasses the potential for reduced
supply availability.
400 MOP imports into the US for July through March totalled
9.8 mn t, up by 2pc from the same period in 2024 and 11pc
380 higher than the five-year-average, according to the US Cen-
sus Bureau.
360
hhhh Potash output steady in 2025: Intrepid
340 Domestic fertilizer producer Intrepid Potash anticipates its
output this year to be in line with 2024 levels.
320
The company expects its potash production this year to
range from 285,000-295,000 short tons with support from a
300
new primary pond in Wendover, Utah, and the HB Solar Solu-
9 May 24 5 Sep 24 9 Jan 25 8 May 25
tion Mine in New Mexico, among other projects.
Intrepid anticipates receiving permits to drill a sample
well at the HB mine in New Mexico by the end of next
month, and expects work finish by July.

Page 8 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

SNAPSHOT - WORLD POTASH PRICES/NETBACKS

sMOP spot
$262-302/t fob
Baltic/Black Sea

sMOP spot gMOP spot sMOP contract

$267-321/t fob €340-360/t cfr $273/t cfr
sMOP spot
Vancouver northwest Europe China
$281-371/t fob
Jordan
sMOP spot
$280-370/t fob sMOP spot
gMOP spot Israel $350-370/t cfr
$315-320/st fob S.E. Asia
barge Nola sMOP contract gMOP spot
$283/t cfr $365-390/t cfr
sMOP = standard India Thailand/Vietnam
gMOP = granular gMOP spot
$360-370/t cfr
t = tonne Brazil
st = short ton gMOP spot
$385-397/t cfr gMOP spot
South Africa $400-415/t cfr
fob Australia

contract
cfr
Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section.
For more information visit https://www.un.org/geospatial/mapsgeo/generalmaps

Potash output in the first quarter rose to 93,000st, up by Intrepid turned a first-quarter profit of $4.6mn, compared
6.9pc from the same period in 2024, following accelerated with a loss of $3.1mn in the same period of 2024.
production rates last year.
The company sold $43.8mn in potash in the first quarter,
up from $37.6mn last year, on higher production rates and
gMOP barge fob Nola range $/st
increased potash magnesium chloride and brine byproduct
sales. The average net realized potash price was $312/st,
compared with $395/st a year earlier. 900

First-quarter potash sales volumes increased to 103,000st, 800

up by 29,000st from the prior year, because of higher pro-
700
duction and inventory levels.
Increased corn acres, tariff uncertainty, and tightening 600
hhhh
global supply helped increase first quarter demand. Midwest 500
potash prices at the end of the first quarter rose by $55/
400
st from winter-fill program prices in January 2025, which is
expected to be reflected in second-quarter results, Intrepid 300
said. 200
As the spring application season dwindles, Intrepid 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
projects second-quarter potash sales volumes to be 60,000-
70,000st at an average realized price of $350-360/st.
The company noted minor shifts in global supply as
increased domestic consumption in Russia removed an esti-
mated 1.8mn metric tonnes from the market. It anticipates
potash demand to grow in line with historic trendline levels,
around 2pc/yr, through the second half of 2025.

Page 9 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

SOP up from 2,000t a year earlier, latest GTT data show. Arrivals
from Germany accounted for 3,100t, up from zero a year
earlier. Vietnam and Philippines supplied most of the
Mainland China remaining imports.
Indications for 50pc granular SOP/52pc powder SOP are
largely at $610/t fob for 9.5kg bags. But one trader is Indonesia
offering 50pc granular SOP at $595-600/t fob, and 50pc Indications for water-soluble SOP are $600-630/t fob Jakarta.
water-soluble SOP at $580-585/t fob, all in 9.5kg bags.
Suppliers are still withholding bulk export offers for now. Vietnam
A producer is offering water-soluble SOP at $630-650/t fob
NOP but no deals are reported in this range.
Export prices for fertilizer-grade and industrial-grade NOP
are broadly stable at $680-690/t fob and at $750/t fob, Australia
respectively. Some suppliers have raised offers slightly to Australia imported 26,700t of SOP in January-March, up from
compensate for the rising costs in exports because of the 24,900t a year earlier. Imports from Germany accounted for
change in exchange rates. 19,100t, up from 18,400t in January-March 2024. Deliveries
Domestic prices for industrial-grade NOP fell at the low from Taiwan grew by 22pc on the year to 4,600t, while
end to Yn5,000-5,300/t ex-works, while those for fertilizer- those from Indonesia remained broadly stable on the year at
grade NOP are indicated at around Yn4,100/t ex-works. around 1,300t.

Taiwan Pakistan
One producer has started offering granular SOP for shipment Domestic granular SOP prices are indicated at around 10,200
in July at $615-635/t fob depending on destination port and rupees/50kg bag ($724/t) ex-warehouse, while those for
volume. Another producer is offering granular SOP at $610- water-soluble SOP traded at 9,200-9,500 rupees/50kg bag
615/t fob for July shipment. ($653-675/t) ex-warehouse. Domestic sales for water-soluble
Producers have raised export offers for July because of grade are slowing because of recent drought conditions in
the recent rally in MOP prices but buyers have yet to accept certain regions of Pakistan, leading to a water shortage.
these new levels.
Europe
Southeast Asia Despite sharp rises in raw material costs in recent months,
Indications for water-soluble SOP range $630-670/t cfr, the hike in SOP prices have been fairly minor as suppliers
depending on volume and origin. plan to pass on these higher production costs to customers
over a longer period of time. The price range for standard
Thailand product is flat at €585-610/t fob northwest Europe. There
SOP imports in the first quarter of this year totalled 4,300t, remains good demand for granular SOP, especially for cash
crops and vegetables like potato and sugar beet. The price
Granular SOP bagged fob east Asia $/t for granular product is also flat at €590-660/t cfr northwest
Europe.
Sales to markets outside of Europe are also suffering from
675
the weaker US dollar, which is preventing any sharp rises on
650 an euro basis. Some suppliers are also reported to be offer-
ing product to non-European markets in euros as a result.
625

600
Egypt
hhhh
A local producer has reported being sold out through May
575 and June with only very small volumes of water-soluble SOP
available.
550

525
9 May 24 5 Sep 24 9 Jan 25 8 May 25

Page 10 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

Potash freight $/t

Loading Destination MOP '000t 8 May 1 May ±

Argus Fertilizer Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea
Brazil
SE Asia
30-40
25-30
40-45
50-85
35-45
70-85
t
u

Europe
Baltic Sea China 60-65 50-70 60-70 u
Baltic Sea US Nola 50-55 45-48 45-48 34
Hamburg Brazil 30-35 21-23 21-23 34
European price assessments, Red Sea WC India 25-30 23-29 21-26 t
trade trends, market commentary, Vancouver China 60-65 20-22 21-23 u
key current and historical data Vancouver SE Asia 25-30 48-50 48-50 34
Vancouver Brazil 30-35 37-39 37-39 34

Key prices
Argus freight rates are assessed in consultation with producers,
traders and buyers and freight broker service provider Nueva Seas.
Market-moving news and
insightful commentary Key freight rates from Baltic region $/t

Coverage of all key

countries in Europe Brazil (30-40kt) SE Asia (25-30kt)
China (60-65kt) US Nola (50-55kt)
100.00
Near-term outlook
(30-60 days)
90.00
80.00
70.00
Learn more hhhhhh
60.00
50.00
Bi-weekly reports | Proprietary data 40.00
Online dashboard
30.00
9 May 24 5 Sep 24 9 Jan 25 8 May 25

gMOP fob Nola vs gMOP Brazil cfr Key freight rates from Vancouver, Canada $/t
Brazil (30-35kt) SE Asia (25-30kt)
China (60-65kt)
Granular MOP US Nola fob ($/st) (RH scale) 80.00
Granular MOP Brazil cfr ($/t) (LH scale)
1,200 800 70.00
1,050 700 60.00
900 50.00
600
hhhhhh
750
500 hhhhhh 40.00
600
30.00
400
450
20.00
300 300
10.00
150 200 9 May 24 5 Sep 24 9 Jan 25 8 May 25
12 May 22 11 May 23 2 May 24 1 May 25

ANNOUNCEMENT ANNOUNCEMENT

All data change announcements can be viewed online at The holiday calendar showing which Argus reports are
www.argusmedia.com/announcements not published on which days is now available online
Alternatively, to be added to the email distribution list www.argusmedia.com/en/methodology/publishing-
for all announcements, please email: schedule
[email protected]

Page 11 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

New and recent MOP mines

Production Nameplate capacity Estimated produc- Projected produc- Projected produc-
Company (Mine name) Region, Country
start (mn t/yr KCl) tion 2022 (mn t) tion 2023 (mn t) tion 2024 (mn t)

2020 Eurochem (VolgaKaliy) Volgograd, Russia 2.30 0.43 0.72 0.98

2021 ICL (Suria) Catalonia, Spain 1.35 0.68 0.60 0.78
2021 Belaruskali (Petrikov) Petrikov, Belarus 1.50 0.22 0.99 1.07
2022 Mosaic (Esterhazy K3) Saskatchewan, Canada 8.20 4.78 4.40 4.80

New MOP capacity (Firm), 2024-27

Company Site Date ± Capacity mn t/yr Status

Uralkali Ust-Yavya, Russia 2024 2.50 Greenfield mine. Construction and commissioning in progress
Second capacity expansion at current mine. Development underway but
Asia Potash Dong Tai, Laos 2025 1.00
commissioning delayed to 2025
Belaruskali Petrikov, Belarus 2025 0.20 Expansion of current processing facility. Installation underway
Expansion of milling capacity at operational site. Construction under-
Mosaic Esterhazy, Canada 2025 0.40
way
Uralkali Solikamsk-2, Russia 2026 1.20 Brownfield replacement. Construction under way
BHP Jansen, Canada 2026 4.14 First phase of new greenfield project. Construction underway
Second phase expansion of processing plant for existing mine, develop-
Eurochem Usolskiy, Russia 2027 1.80
ment under way
Total 11.24

New SOP capacity (Firm and probable), 2024-25

± Capacity expansion
Company Site Date Status
'000 t/yr

First phase of 200,000t/yr Mannheim capacity planned for site. Commis-

Hebei Jinbang Cangzhou, China 2024 100
sioning under way
Zhenhua Chemical Huangshi, China 2024 60 Commissioning ongoing
New greenfield plant. First 20,000t operational, second 20,000t to be
Agven Gwadar, Pakistan 2024 40
brought online in 2025
Jiangxi Xinlianxin Jiujiang, China 2024 20 Commissioning ongoing
Cinis Ornskoldsvik, Sweden 2024 100 Commercial operation begun, ramp up to full capacity in progress
Modernisation project of existing chemical plant includes new SOP
Indorama Kokand Kokand, Uzbekistan 2025 80
capacity. Test production begun ahead of commercial start
Barket Fertilizers Port Qasim, Pakistan 2025 13 Fourth Mannheim line planned for active site.
Chifeng Sanfang Chifeng, China 2025 40 Expansion project at existing plant
Total 453

MOP: Summary of production curtailments/losses and sales reductions

Country Company Event/Impact Period Reason

Little production as a result of technical difficulties. Re-

Turkmeni- Turkmenkhi- Ongoing since
Little production at 1.4mn t/yr Garlyk mine ports of ore quality and flooding issues, and legal issues
stan miya March 2017
with Belarusian mine builder Belgorkimprom
Production ramp up at consolidated Suria site limited as
Spain ICL Underground development slowed by geology 2023
a result of challenging geological conditions
Exports limited from Red Sea port of Eilat and shipments
Ongoing since
Israel ICL Challenges shipping through Red Sea through Red Sea generally limited as a result of regional
2023
conflicrt and attacks on ships using the route
Belarus Belaruskali Reduction of around 1 mn t of white MOP Jan-Jun 2025 New equipment is being installed at its fourth mine
Reduction of 300,000t of output, an extra
Maintenance work at its BKPRU-2, BKPRU-4 and Solika-
Russia Uralkali 400,000t of supply allocated to the domestic 2Q 2025
msk-3 mines
market

Page 12 of 13
Argus Potash Issue 25-19 | Thursday 8 May 2025

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