FLOOD IMPACT

ASSESSMENT IN JONGLEI

SOUTH SUDAN / 31 August 2020

Highlights

• This year’s widespread flooding1 and waterlogging2 across the country is expected to result in impacts that are
similar or worse than those of last year. The overall impact assessment on crop production is yet to be done, but an
assessment was done for Jonglei state, which is more affected by the flooding.

• Way above-average rainfall and overflowing of the Nile River and its tributaries in June/July negatively affected growing
crops and livestock, and caused displacement of communities, in nine counties of Jonglei State where the impact
assessment was undertaken.

• These earlier than normal, above-average rains caused, and continue to cause in some areas, displacement of
human population and damage to crops and livestock.

• The floods found the crops at different stages of growth and will likely result in lower yields, particularly for those
crops found at vegetative stage, compared to those at maturity stage and with a higher tolerance to waterlogging.

• According to the assessment done in August in Jonglei State, about 45 percent of the total cereal area was damaged
by floods in the nine flood-affected counties.

• While harvesting of crops is expected to start in September, the production loss due to flood damage is estimated at
26 892 Ha of cultivated land which translates to an estimated loss of 11 916 tonnes of cereals3 in the nine flood-
affected counties, with anticipated negative impacts on the food security situation of the affected population.

• About 72 percent of the livestock population in the four counties of Twic East, Duk, Bor South and Canal Pigi
were affected by the floods. An estimated 6 000 heads of cattle, 36 150 goats and 5 400 sheep are reported to have
died in June and July due to the floods, representing 4.8 percent of the affected livestock population in the four
counties (Table 34).

• Flooding has created conditions conducive for outbreak of animal diseases such as Rift Valley fever, pneumonia,
foot rot, increased worm burden, anthrax, black quarter, trypanosomiasis, hemorrhagic septicemia among others.
Pastures have also been inundated increasing the risk of animal deaths due to starvation.

• This year’s flooding has spread beyond the traditionally flood-prone areas in Jonglei, and the resultant
displacement of communities and damages to crops and livestock are much higher than the previous years.

Flooding in Jonglei

Jonglei is one of the states affected by floods in South Sudan mainly due to excessive rains, runoff from surrounding
highlands and overflow of major rivers, such as River Nile. In general, floods started around late May and continued up to
date, displacing a large number of people and causing damage to crops and grazing lands, thus affecting livestock too.
This year, nine out of 11 counties of Jonglei have been affected by floods, especially those areas along the Nile River. As
at August 2020, the severely affected counties are Twic East, Pibor, Pochalla and Ayod, while Uror, Nyirol, Bor South, Duk

1 Flooding is full coverage or submerging of land with a large amount of water.

2 Waterlogging is full saturation of the soil profile with water.
3 This is 25% of estimated State production based on 2019 CFSAM figures.
4 These preliminary results are expected to change as we go until the harvest time, which is anticipated, from September/October.
and Canal Pigi were mildly affected (Figure-1). As the flood intensified, farmers were forced to move to higher grounds
and abandon their crops and villages, which were submerged in flood waters. Crops planted on higher grounds were not
affected by the floods and performed better. The extent of flooding and the damage caused is higher than last year, which
was also a high rainfall year.

Figure 1: Map showing flood affected areas in Jonglei State, between June and August 2020

Sources of flood waters and time of occurence

County Source of flood water Time of flooding

Duk Excessive rainfall and overflow of River Nile June – July and ongoing
Pochalla Overflow of Oboth, Aburon, and Akobo rivers July to date
Excessive rains from May to August and overflow of the
Twic East June to date
River Nile
From surrounding rivers, excessive rains and River Nile
Ayod Late July and ongoing
bursting its banks
Pibor Excessive rains and overflow of Pibor River Late July to date
Uror Excessive rains In July to date
Nyiror Excessive rains In July to date
Bor Excessive rains and overflow of River Nile June and ongoing
Excessive rain and over flow of water from the swampy
Canal Pigi areas of southern Jonglei to northern part of Jonglei Mid-July to August
through the canal, and other tributaries of Nile River

Table 1: Sources of flood water and time of occurrence in Jonglei State

Impact of floods on crops

In South Sudan, flood is caused by excessive rainfall and river discharge. Flash floods also occur because of unexpected
rainfall, excessive river flow. Rains which started in May over most of the State intensified in June, resulting in seasonal
accumulation of rainwater, as well as overflow of the Nile and other rivers. The combination of the heavy rainfall and
overflow of rivers resulted in serious flooding, which is higher than the previous year, in most counties of Jonglei State. As
a flood prone area, floods are normally expected in August and continue up to September. However, the current flooding
started earlier than normal, causing damage to crops at different stages of development. In areas severely affected by
floods like Twic East (e.g. 53% damage), crops were in their late vegetative growth stages and therefore suffered from
severe waterlogging, which caused stunting of sorghum crops and yellowing of leaves - an indication of crop failure. Early
planted maize was at tussling stage and may not survive the impact of floods as well. Maize is less tolerant to waterlogging
than sorghum. As a result of early arrival of floods, this year’s crop production in most of the affected counties is seriously
affected and production prospects will be lower than the past three or more years. Counties which reported heavy crop
damages are highly dependent on livestock for their livelihoods.

Figure 2: Flooded crops in Pochalla (August 2020)

In most of the affected areas, sorghum is the staple crop of the communities, and maize is a minor crop mostly grown
around homesteads. However, maize is an important crop that fills the hunger gap until the long growing sorghum
is harvested in early October. Therefore, the areas affected by early floods, especially when the maize crops were at
vegetative stage are expected to go through the lean season without any respite from green maize harvest. On the other
hand, in areas where the maize crop has already reached maturity stage, the impact of floods has been lower, despite
the reduction of yield and spoilage of seeds caused by high humidity leading to fungal damage and rotting of the seeds.
Although the sorghum crops that reached booting stage may survive the impact of flooding/ waterlogging, the productivity
will be reduced due to the falling of the plants/stalks in the flood waters, and washing away of some fields planted closer to
the river banks.

With the continuation of floods, it may take longer for the displaced communities to return to their homes, especially in
severely affected counties. In the meantime, the submerged crops will fall in the flood waters or be washed away by water,
hence making it difficult to salvage the remaining maize and sorghum crops planted in the low-lying areas and around
homesteads.

In areas such as Nyirol County where planting of late sorghum is a common practice, this has not been possible to do
this year because of the continued flooding. Since the floods are expected to recede around late September and October,
planting of late sorghum is not feasible. Hence, the production from late sorghum can only be expected from crops planted
on higher grounds, which may not be sufficient for the concerned communities.

In areas such as Pochalla where maize is the staple crop, the floods appeared at maturity stage causing yield reductions,
rather than complete loss of the crop, while sorghum and other crops such as cassava are likely to be destroyed by the
floods.

Opportunity for replanting of lost fields was only possible in areas such as Bor South, where flooding occurred earlier in
the season due to the excessive rainfall and river overflow in May. The displacement is not only due to the floods, but also
the insecurity that prevailed in most of the highland areas. The insecurity in some areas of Pibor due to cattle rustling
has disrupted essential cultural practices like weeding due to displacement of the farming communities. Consequently,
the combined effect of floods and insecurity in Pibor will plunge the County into a serious food insecurity situation that
requires continuous food assistance and distribution of inputs to support quick recovery of the agriculture sector.

Cereal production
Cereal area Expected Level of damage on cereals as @ August 2020
loss (tons)
cereal
Cereal Total production
County
area - as cereal area (tons), as Completely Seriously Medium Low
per CFSAM damaged damaged damage damage Tons Percent
per CFSAM damaged
2019 (ha) (ha) 2019 (100%), ha (75%), ha (50%), ha (25%), ha

Pibor 8 512 5 107 8 512 - 2 554 1 788 766 3 000 35%

Uror 9 656 2 897 5 311 - 869 1 738 290 876 17%

Nyirol 4 455 1 916 2 673 - 766 958 192 661 25%

Akobo 6 426 - 6 426 - - - - - -

Twic East 5 880 4 822 3 528 723 2 170 1 205 723 1 880 53%

Duk 2 758 1 462 1 931 - 804 439 219 614 32%

Bor South 11 445 4 578 8 584 - 1 145 1 373 2 060 1 545 18%

Fangak 1 491 - 1 044 - - - - - -

Ayod 1 078 776 862 - 233 466 78 342 40%

Canal Pigi 865 476 606 - 214 190 71 191 32%

Pochalla 6 941 4 859 7 635 - 1 458 2 429 972 2 806 37%

Total 59 507 26 892 47 111 723 10 212 10 586 5 371 11 916 25.3%

45% 3% 38% 39% 20%

Table 2: Details of flood affected areas, damage on cereal and estimated loss of production in Jonglei - August 2020 (Calculation based on CFSAM 2019
data)

Based on CFSAM 2019 figures of area and production, about 26 892 hectares (45 percent) of the total cereal area in the State
has been damaged by floods. While harvesting of main crops is expected to start in September/October, the estimated loss
of production from the affected counties is 11 916 tons of cereals, which is 25 percent of the expected production from the
whole State and 30 percent of the expected production from the nine flood affected counties (Table 2).

Impact of floods on livestock

Floods have impacted livestock in several ways, including increased disease outbreaks and alerts, and vulnerability to
starvation-related deaths. There were reported livestock losses due to disease outbreaks and shortage of feed. Cases of
diseases such as pneumonia, foot rot, increased worm burden, anthrax, black quarter, trypanosomiasis, hemorrhagic
septicemia among others. Flooding also increases the risk of an outbreak of Rift Valley fever, a zoonotic disease. In the
flooded areas, pastures are in short supply as most of the grazing and shrublands were submerged in water, resulting
in movement to higher ground where competition for settlement by the displaced communities and their livestock. An
estimated 47 500 animals have died due to the impact of floods in the four counties of Twic East, Duk, Bor South and Canal
Pigi (Table 3).
 Total Total
Total Total Total
Number Number Number Number Number Number number number
cattle goats sheep
County of cattle of cattle of goats of goats of sheep of sheep of of
popul- popul- popul-
affected died affected died affected died livestock livestock
ation ation ation
affected died
Twic East 62 700 59 565 1 881 93 500 88 825 23 375 15 200 14 440 760 162 830 26 016
Duk 51 400 23 130 514 31 200 16 536 312 15 300 7 497 153 47 163 979
Bor
125 400 106 590 1 254 264 800 185 360 10 592 228 500 137 100 3 428 429 050 15 274
South
Canal
47 000 38 070 2 350 31 200 21 528 1 872 15 200 12 768 1 064 72 366 5 286
Pigi
Total 286 500 227 340 5 999 420 700 312 249 36 151 274 200 171 805 5 405 711 409 47 555
Percent 79.4% 2.1% 74.2% 8.6% 62.7% 3.1% 72.5% 4.8%

Note: The figures presented in the table above were at the beginning of the floods. An increase in the numbers is expected as the floods continue.
Table 3: Jonglei - Impact of floods on livestock

Figure 3: Impact of floods on livestock – Bor South and Twic East counties (August 2020)

Reccomendations

In addition to the emergency food assistance by the responsible agencies and NGOs, the following agricultural
interventions are required to improve food security of the vulnerable households in the affected areas.

a) Provision of technical support to the County Agriculture Offices and the State Director General of Agriculture, Livestock
and Fisheries to provide advisory services, coordinate meetings and facilitate logistical support.

b) Distribution of various types of vegetable seeds (especially of early maturing varieties), provide support on
supplementary irrigation using pumps, and give hand tools (for gardening) including watering cans and fishing kits for
affected households.

c) FAO to launch a vaccination and treatment campaign, and a livestock feed supplementation program where necessary.

d) Needs for destocking in areas affected, using slaughter destocking. Meat can be used to supplement WFP intervention
as source of protein

e) Provisions of animal health services in areas where livestock migrated to and those left behind

f) Acceleration of stock feeding programme and provision of concentrate feeds.

g) Support the relocation of at-risk populations to higher grounds, and provision of food and other materials to assist
them settle as they wait for the flood waters to recede.
ANNEX
County Seriously affected Payams/Areas Moderately affected Payams/Areas
Duk Payuel, Ageer and Dongchak Padiet
Twic East Paker, Ajuong, Nyuak, Kongor, and Lith Garalei
Kavachoch, Bee, Lenyirieth, Tangnyang, Turen and
Pibor Luakongole and Gumuruk
Napul
Pajiek, Kuacdeng, Ayod town, Padek, Wau, Mongok, Highland areas within the 8 Payams especially
Ayod
Korwai,and Pagil Eastern canal and Ayod town
Uror Pieri, Pulchol, Motot and Tearam Highland areas within the Payams
Pultruk, Nyambor, Pading, Tut, Thol, Wunbil and
Nyirol Lankien and highland areas
Dengdor
Pochalla Akiela, Pochalla, Adongo Burator, Omiela
Bor South Jalle and Baidid Anyidi, Makuac and Kolynyang
Canal Pigi Pigi, Khorwac and Wunlem Khorflus
Table 4: Extent of flood damage in the affected Counties and Payams in Jonglei State

Methodology

In order to determine the level of damage and estimate production losses, semi-structured questionnaires were used to
collect field data at County and Payam levels in the flood affected areas of Jonglei State. Data collection was conducted by
focal points in FAO’s field offices, the County Crop Monitoring Committee (CCMC) members, County Agriculture Officers and
the State Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MoAL) officers.

The collected quantitative and qualitative data was crosschecked against reports from NGOs, FSL Cluster members and the
State RRC office reports. Satellite-based remote sensed rainfall anomalies were used to verify the extent of rainfall in each
county compared to last year and the long-term average. All of this information was triangulated and used to determine the
level of damage on planted areas, yield reductions per unit area and total production (tonnes) losses in each County.

The 2019 CFSAM area and yield levels of cereals were used as a benchmark to estimate the losses due to floods. The impact on
livestock and the death of animals was based on reports from the field-based FAO livestock information monitors, the State
MoAL officers and County Agriculture Officers.

Contact
Mr. Meshack Malo
FAO Representative

FAO South Sudan

Juba, South Sudan
[email protected]
©FAO, 2020

Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations
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