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 CFM-TMH Professional Series in Finance

Macroeconomic
Policy Environment
Second Edition
An Analytical Guide for Managers
 CFM-TMH Professional Series in Finance
Honorary Consulting Editor: Dr Prasanna Chandra

The CFM-TMH Professional Series in Finance, a joint initiative of the Centre

for Financial Management and Tata McGraw Hill Education, India, seeks to
synthesise the findings of financial research with the concerns of practitioners.
The aim of the books in this series is to convey the important developments
in the theory and practice of finance in a rigorous, but relatively non-technical
manner for the benefit of: (a) finance practitioners and (b) students of MBA.

Titles in the Series

• Financial Management:
Theory and Practice, 7/e Prasanna Chandra

• Projects: Planning, Analysis,

Selection, Financing,
Implementation and Review, 7/e Prasanna Chandra

• Finance Sense: Finance for

Non-finance Executives, 4/e Prasanna Chandra

• Investment Analysis and

Portfolio Management, 3/e Prasanna Chandra

• International Finance:
A Business Perspective, 2/e Prakash G Apte

• Investment Banking:
Concepts, Analyses and Cases Pratap G Subramanyam

• Investment Banking:
An Odyssey in High Finance Pratap G Subramanyam

• Macroeconomic Policy Environment, 2/e Shyamal Roy

• Corporate Governance and Stewardship:

Emerging Role and Responsibilities
of Corprate Boards and Directors N Balasubramanian
 CFM-TMH Professional Series in Finance

Macroeconomic
Policy Environment
Second Edition
An Analytical Guide for Managers

Shyamal Roy
Professor
Indian Institute of Management
Bangalore

Tata McGraw Hill Education Private Limited

New Delhi

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 To
the memory of my Father
 Preface to the Second edition

A sea change has taken place in our understanding of macroeconomics

since the first edition of this book was published in 2005. The severity
and depth of the global economic and financial meltdown, in the wake of
the sub-prime crisis in USA, has given rise to several questions, mostly
related to the efficacy of macroeconomic policies. Should financial stability
be a key objective of monetary policy? Should monetary policy track asset
price movements as well? What is the role of fiscal policy in a period of
slowdown? Is fiscal deficit a concern? When and when not? Are controls
on movement of certain types of capital undesirable? Should Central bank
intervention in foreign exchange market to stabilize the exchange rate be
discouraged? These are some of the issues that will occupy the interest of
economists and policymakers across the globe in the years to come.
While Indian macroeconomic policies have come out relatively unscathed
in the wake of global economic slowdown and have, in fact, been praised
for their cautious approach, India has its own set of problems which throw
up new challenges for our policy makers. How do we interpret these
challenges? What are their business implications?
The second edition of the book attempts to focus on some of these
emerging issues. Chapter 1 sets the stage by highlighting why in today’s
rapidly changing business environment, should a manager have exposure
to how macroeconomic policies are framed and how certain events take
effect. Chapter 2 introduces the key concepts in macroeconomics. Chapter 3
provides the analytical basis for understanding why, at times, macroeconomic
policies may be rendered ineffective. Chapter 4 describes fiscal policy and
all its dimensions. Chapter 5 discusses monetary policy and the dilemmas
faced by the Central bank in the conduct of this policy. Chapter 6 discusses
external sector developments, including the recent events. Chapter 7 brings
out the implications for managerial decision making. Throughout the book,
as in the first edition, every chapter has a section on Indian macroeconomic
policies. And, each chapter relates to business environment.
viii Preface to the Second Edition

Specific changes made in the second edition are:

1. All the data and analysis have been updated to 2008–09 and, in some
cases, 2009–10.
2. Some of the topical issues have been put in the form of a box for
ready reference.
3. Current topics like the global economic and financial meltdown, the
Union Budget 2010–11, the crisis in Greece and others have been
discussed in detail.
4. Annexure in Chapter 5 explains the IS-LM model.
5. Annexure at the end of Chapter 7 highlights changes in
macroeconomics thinking in the light of recent happenings.
6. An instructor’s manual is being made available separately.

While the second edition remains highly relevant to practicing managers

and policy makers, the changes introduced also makes it an ideal choice as
a first-level macroeconomics textbook in an MBA programme.
To enhance the utility of this book, powerpoint slides for instructors are
available at http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/0070703744.
I hope readers will receive the second edition as enthusiastically as the
first. I will look forward to comments for future improvements.

Shyamal Roy
 Preface to the firSt edition

This book is written for professional managers, both in public and private
sectors, who have little or no background in Economics; but have to face, on
a regular basis, the challenges posed by a rapidly changing macroeconomic
policy environment. The book attempts to provide an understanding of how
macroeconomic policies work and, in turn, how they impact the business
environment. I have deliberately kept away from jargons, diagrams and
equations in explaining the policy changes and policy impacts. The approach
has been to explain the issues in a ‘story’ mode. And, I have developed
this approach from my experience of teaching this subject in Executive
Development Programmes, both at IIMB and outside, for over 20 years.
For MBA students the book will be useful in two respects. First, they
will get a practical view of macroeconomics without losing the underlying
theoretical foundation. Those management schools that follow a less
quantitative approach to teaching macroeconomics will find this book
useful as a textbook. Second, in my view, perhaps for the first time, they
will get an exposure to Indian macroeconomic policy issues in an integrated
fashion.
Policy makers in government will get a decent exposure to various policy
issues and conflicts involved in the framing and conduct of macroeconomic
policies.
Needless to say, in writing this book I have drawn from some excellent
textbooks available on the subject. But I have also supplemented those
with my own interpretation and research. I welcome comments from both
colleagues and practicing managers/students on the book.

Shyamal Roy
Bangalore
June, 2005
 acknowledgementS

While planning the second edition of this book I benefited from

valuable suggestions provided by colleagues in academia, industry
and government. I am deeply indebted to all of them. I will like to
make particular mention of Professor Vasant Sukhatme of Macalester
College, Minneapolis, Minnesota, for his detailed comments. I am
equally indebted to my students at IIMB for putting forward their ideas
on the content as well as the approach taken in the book. Interactive
sessions, both within and outside the classroom, have helped me to a
large extent in planning and structuring the new edition.

Shyamal Roy
 Contents

Preface to the Second Edition vii

Preface to the First Edition ix
Acknowledgements xi

1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 What Do Macroeconomic Policies Do? 3
1.3 Plan of the Book 9
REVIEW QUESTIONS 10

2. GDP, General Price Level and Related Concepts 11

2.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 11
2.2 Money: The Basics 37
2.3 Interest Rates: The Basics 40
2.4 Exchange Rates: The Basics 43
2.5 General Price Level: Measurement 45
2.6 Inflation: The Basics 52
2.7 Summing Up 61
REVIEW QUESTIONS 61

3. Determinants of Aggregate Demand 63

3.1 Components of Aggregate Demand (AD) 63
3.2 What Does Each Component of AD Depend On? 65
3.3 Section Summary 82
3.4 The Indian Case 83
3.5 Chapter Summary and Conclusions 100
REVIEW QUESTIONS 102

4. Fiscal Policy 104

4.1 Government Expenditure, Taxes and
Government Debt: An Overview 105
xiv Contents

4.2 How Does Fiscal Policy Work? 119

4.3 When is Government Expenditure Productive? 122
4.4 Beyond That-How Do We Analyse Fiscal Policy? 124
4.5 The Indian Case 141
4.6 The Special Case of 2008-09 and What it Holds for
Future Fiscal Correction 150
4.7 Concluding Comments 155
Annexure: State of the Economy 157
REVIEW QUESTIONS 159

5. Monetary Policy 162

5.1 Money Supply – How is it Defined 162
5.2 Demand for Money 164
5.3 Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism 166
5.4 The Money Supply Process 171
5.5 Control of Money Supply 180
5.6 Issues in Monetary Policy 186
5.7 Monetary Policy in India 192
5.8 Banking Sector Efficiency 203
5.9 Chapter Summary 204
Annexure: IS-LM Model 207
REVIEW QUESTIONS 220

6. The External Sector 222

6.1 Integration Through Trade and Movement of
Capital: An Introduction 223
6.2 Balance of Payments 225
6.3 Exchange Rates 232
6.4 Macroeconomic Adjustment to External Sector
Imbalance Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes 237
6.5 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effectiveness Under
Different Exchange Rate Regimes 250
6.6 What Causes Financial Sector Collapse? 255
6.7 Is Decoupling Hypothesis a Myth? 266
6.8 India’s Externel Sector: Recent Trends 267
6.9 Chapter Summary 278
REVIEW QUESTIONS 280
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