Probabilistic Dynamic Programming
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ScribdTranslationsProbabilistic Dynamic Programming
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ScribdTranslationsPROBABILISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING
A player has 2 dollars. They are allowed to participate four times in a game of chance.
and their goal is to maximize their probability of ending up with at least $6. If the player
bet b dollars on a play, then wins with a probability of 0.4 and increases his capital
in b dollars; loses with a probability of 0.6 and decreases its capital by b dollars. In any
the player cannot bet more money than they have. Determine a betting strategy
that maximizes the player's probability of reaching a capital of at least 6 dollars
final of the fourth game. We assume that bets of 0 dollars are allowed, that is, no
to bet.
2. Vladimir Ulanowsky plays a two-game chess match against Keith Smithson. The
Winning a game earns one point, tying earns half a point. After the two games
the player with the most points is declared the champion. If the two players tie after
two players will continue playing until someone wins the game. Whoever wins that game
he will be the champion. During each game, Ulanowsky can play in two ways: aggressive or
conservatively. If playing aggressively, there is a probability of winning the game.
of 45% and 55% of losing it. If he plays conservatively, he has a probability of
90% chance of drawing and 10% chance of losing it. Ulanowsky's goal is to maximize the
probability of winning the match. Use dynamic programming to help you
achieve their goal.
3. Juan has two dollars and is going to flip two biased coins (0.4 probability of heads in...
each coin) three times. Before each roll, you can bet any amount, up to the
what he has at that moment (whole amounts). If they are heads, Juan wins the same amount
of what was bet. If crosses come out, you lose the amount you bet. If one side and one cross come out
wins half of what he bet.
Determine a strategy that maximizes Juan's probability of finishing with at least
$5 at the end of the game.
In a card game, Juan has $80 to bet. He considers that he has a probability
0.4 to win in each game, 0.5 to lose, and 0.1 to draw. Juan will play three games.
and wants to maximize their probability of having at least $100 by the end of the game. What
betting policy must be followed, if in each game you can bet any amount between
1 and what it has (whole amounts). (If you bet 5 and win, you recover your 5 and 5 more)
At the beginning of each day, a machine can be operational or broken down. If
the machine runs all day, earns $100 in income. If it breaks down, the
the machine does not generate income during that day. If the machine operates at the beginning of the day.
we can carry out maintenance to reduce the likelihood of
breakdown. If maintenance is carried out, a machine in operation has a
probability of 0.4 of breaking down; if maintenance is not performed, a machine in
the service has a probability of 0.7 of breaking down during the day. The cost of
Maintenance is $20. If the machine is broken at the start of the day, it must be
repair or change. Both the change or the repair can be done instantly to
end of using the machine for that day. The repair of a broken machine.
it costs $40 and there is a 0.4 probability that the repaired machine will break down in
the course of the day. Replacing a broken machine costs $90, but it
ensures that the machine will work for two consecutive days without breaking down.
Use dynamic programming to determine the repair, replacement, and policy.
maintenance that maximizes the expected profit obtained over a period
for five days. It is supposed that the machine is running at the beginning of the first day.
6. I am a contestant on a TV quiz show. During the winnings round
I will be asked four questions. For each one I answer correctly, I win.
a certain amount of money; however, an incorrect answer means that
I lose all the money I had won before and the game ends. If I choose to pass, that is
not answering a question I can go to the next question without losing or winning anything. The
money I earn for each correct answer and the probability I have of answering
the correct form of each question appears in the following table.
PROBABILITY OF
QUESTION ANSWER HER PRIZE($)
IN THE CORRECT FORM
1 0.6 10,000
2 0.5 20,000
3 0.4 30,000
4 0.3 40,000
What should my strategy be in the game if my desire is to maximize expected cash?
What do I get?
