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In Perpetual Motion 1st Edition Hani S Mahmassani
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Author(s): Hani S Mahmassani
ISBN(s): 9780585474076, 0585474079
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 20.72 MB
Year: 2002
Language: english
In Perpetual Motion"
Travel Behavior Research Opportunities and
Application Challenges
Related Elsevier books
STOPHER & LEE GOSSELIN (eds.) Understanding Travel behaviour in An Era of Change
BUTTON & HENSHER (eds.) Handbook of Transport Systems and Traffic Control
Transport Policy
Editor: Moshe Ben-Akiva, Yoshitsugu Hayashi and John Preston
For full details of all transportation titles published under the Pergamon imprint please go to:
www.transportconnect.net
In Perpetual Motion"
Travel Behavior Research Opportunities and
Application Challenges
EDITED BY
Hani S. Mahmassani
University of Texas, Austin, USA
2002
PERGAMON
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgements ix
Foreword
Hani S. Mahmassani xi
Chapter 1.
Setting the Research Agenda: Response to New Transport Alternatives and Policies
Peter Jones 3
Chapter 2.
Living Models for Continuous Planning
Andrew Daly 23
Chapter 3.
Household Adaptations to New Personal Transport Options: Constraints and
Opportunities in Household Activity Spaces
Kenneth S. Kurani and Thomas S. Turrentine 43
Chapter 4.
Responses to New Transportation Alternatives and Policies: Workshop Report
Martin E. H Lee-Gosselin 71
Chapter 5.
Dynamics and ITS: Behavioral Responses to Information Available from ATIS
Reginald G. Golledge 81
Chapter 6.
Research into ATIS Behavioral Response: Areas of Interest and Future Perspectives
Ennio Cascetta and Isam A. Kaysi 127
Chapter 7.
Emerging Travel Patterns: Do Telecommunications Make a Difference?
Patricia L. Mokhturian and Ilan Salomon 143
vi In Perpetual Motion: Travel Behaviour Research Opportunities and Challenges
Chapter 8.
Transport and Telecommunication: First Comprehensive Surveys and Simulation
Approaches
Dirk Zumkeller 183
Chapter 9.
Telecommunications-Travel Interaction: Workshop Report
David A. Hensher and Jackie Golob 209
Chapter 10.
Travel Behavior-Land Use Interactions: An Overview and Assessment of the Research
Susan L. Handy 223
Chapter 11.
Comparative Neighborhood Travel Analysis: An Approach to Understanding the
Relationship Between Planning and Travel Behavior
Roger Gorham 237
Chapter 12.
Towards a Microeconomic Framework for Travel Behaviour and Land Use Interactions
Francisco J. Martinez 26 1
Chapter 13.
Land Use-Transportation Interactions: Workshop Report
Ed Weiner and Roger Gorham 277
Chapter 14.
Emerging Developments in Time Use and Mobility
Nelly Kays and Andrew S. Harvey 289
Chapter 15.
Time Use and Travel Demand Modeling: Recent Developments and Current Challenges
Eric I. Pas 307
Chapter 16.
Time Use: Workshop Report
Ryuichi Kitamura 333
Contents vii
Chapter 1%
Current Issues in Travel and Activity Surveys
Tony Richardson 341
Chapter 18,
Motivating the Respondent: How Far Should You Go?
Peter Bonsall 359
Chapter 19.
Recent Methodological Advances Relevant to Activity and Travel Behavior Analysis
Chandra R. Bhat 381
Chapter 20.
The Goods/Activities Framework for Discrete Travel Choices: Indirect Utility and
Value of Time
Sergio R. Jara-Diaz 415
Chapter 21.
Integration of Choice and Latent Variable Models
Moshe Ben-Akiva, Joan Walker, Adriana T Bermardino, Dinesh A . Gopinath,
Taka Morikawa, and Amalia Polydoropoulou 43 1
Chapter 22.
Methodological Developments: Workshop Report
Juan de Dios Orttizar and Rodrigo Garrido 47 1
Chapter 23.
Forecasting the Inputs to Dynamic Model Systems
Konstadinos G. Goulias 48 1
Chapter 24.
Uncertainties in Forecasting: The Role of Strategic Modeling to Control Them
Charles R a m 505
Chapter 25.
Forecasting: Workshop Report
Kostadinos Goulias 527
...
viii In Perpetual Motion: Travel Behaviour Research Opportunities and Challenges
Chapter 26.
Activity-Based Travel Behavior Modeling in a Microsimulation Framework
Eric J. Miller and Paul A. Salvini 533
Chapter 2 7.
Complexity and Activity-Based Travel Analysis and Modeling
Pia M. Koskenoja and Eric I. Pas 559
Chapter 28.
Microsimulation: Workshop Report
Kay Axhausen and Ram Pendyala 583
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This volume represents the culmination of a collective undertaking that has drawn on the
talents and energy of many individuals. From the initial planning stages of the Austin lATBR
conference, to the detailed logistical aspects of organizing it successfully, to the production of
the various post-conference publications, which have included several special issues of leading
Transportation journals, I am grateful for the contribution of many dedicated colleagues,
students and associates.
Colleagues serving on the steering committee of the conference provided much wisdom,
counsel and support through various stages of this process. This distinguished group included
Kay Axhausen, David Hensher, Ryuichi Kitamura, Martin Lee-Gosselin, Juan de Dios Ortuzar,
Eric Pas, John Polak, Peter Stopher and Ed Weiner. They were instrumental in helping define
and refine the focus themes for this volume, as well as in suggesting the best authors for the
commissioned resource chapters. I was truly fortunate to have such talent to rely on.
I am also grateful to the many referees who helped at various stages of the selection process,
for the conference, the various post-conference publications, as well as the present volume.
This entire undertaking, including this volume, would not have been possible without the
financial support of the US Department of Transportation, the Southwest University
Transportation Center of Excellence (SWUTC), and the resources of my institution. The
University of Texas at Austin.
Those who attended the conference will undoubtedly recall the key role that my administrative
assistant, Anne Suddarth, played in this endeavor as Conference Coordinator. I have the
utmost gratitude to Anne for her dedication and tremendous effort in all stages of the
conference as well as in the planning and preparation of this volume. Anne moved on to
bigger and better challenges prior to seeing this particular project to completion. I am
fortunate that Rebecca Weaver-Gill ably took over completion of this project, including final
preparation of the camera-ready manuscript.
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
FOREWORD
Hani S. Mahmassani
Travel behavior interacts in a deep way with how we work, play and go about pursuing the
various activities that make us a society and an economy. The diversity of forces that affect our
economic and social activities, and the lifestyles we choose to pursue, also affect directly and
indirectly how we travel. Social, intellectual, economic and technological forces are
continually interacting with and affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of activities in
which people and businesses engage. Technological developments in the production,
dissemination, and consumption of information continue to amaze social observers and
commentators. These developments have important implications for how we use our time, and
how we go about engaging in the various work, sustenance and leisure activities that constitute
our daily existence. That we travel to enable and accomplish our activity patterns is a long-
established tenet of the travel behavior "paradigm". But travel for its own sake, for the purpose
of leisure and discovery, is also an activity that goes back to time immemorial.
With continuing developments in the technological, methodological and policy realms, the
time is opportune for a major assessment of accomplishments, current trends, and future
directions. To accomplish this objective, this volume is organized around nine major themes
xii In Perpetual Motion: Travel Behaviour Research Opportunities and Challenges
selected to reflect areas of future opportunity and growing professional interest, rather than to
mirror the traditional mature areas of past endeavors. For each theme, one or two resource
chapters have been prepared by the best-known scholars in the respective field of research or
application. When several perspectives were relevant to a particular theme, two resource
chapters were commissioned. For example, in the emerging field of time use, a chapter was
invited by the leading sociologists working in the area of time use, to share their fundamental
insights and approaches with the travel behavior community. At the same time, the leading
researcher in travel behavior who was trying to incorporate time use ideas, the late Eric Pas,
provided the other resource chapter. Taken together, these provide an invaluable and unique
entry point to this growing area of investigation. Naturally, each chapter was carefully
refereed, and extensive comments provided by other leading researchers were incorporated in
the final manuscript.
In addition to the resource chapters, which form the backbone of this volume, one or more
examples of best or most innovative research were selected for each theme. Extensive
refereeing and revision resulted in the chapters included in this volume. In addition, for most
themes, the Austin meeting produced a report based on workshop deliberation during and after
the meeting, aimed at identifying key challenges facing research and practice in the next
decade. The workshops conducted their deliberations over several days, and in several
instances produced milestone documents for their respective themes.
This volume contains the last contributions of a dear friend and colleague, and truly influential
thinker in the travel behavior field, the late Eric Pas. As noted, he is the author of one of the
two resource chapters highlighting developments and challenges in the area of time use
research. At the time of the conference, Eric produced a document that he labeled as a work in
progress. Unfortunately, his untimely death kept it in that form. In many ways, this area of
investigation remains very much a work in progress. Rather than edit that chapter, or seek to
have it completed by one of his close colleagues, I have chosen to leave it in "raw form", as a
testimonial to Eric's contribution, and as rare glimpse into the mind of a genuine contributor
and thinker to this field. As such, it reveals the germination of several important ideas and
concepts, and research directions in their early stages. It is a fitting testimonial and recognition
that this field, to which Eric has dedicated his professional career and in which he was invested
personally and socially, remains very much a work in progress.
Eric is also the co-author of a second chapter, with Pia Koskenoja, on "Complexity and
Activity-Based Travel Analysis and Modeling" (Chapter 27). In this case, the co-author was
responsible for the final revision of the chapter. That work is also indicative of important new
Foreword xiii
directions that Eric's work was beginning to chart, along particularly challenging dimensions
of activity and travel behavior modeling.
Below is a description of the key themes, which form the different parts of the book.
The volume kicks off with an excellent tour of the major policy and societal drivers
underpinning much of the current interest in travel behavior research. These are the challenges
that necessitate better and deeper understanding of travel behavior, and provide much of the
motivation for the substantive and methodological developments that are highlighted in this
volume. Peter Jones shares his unique clarity of insight into these complex issues, and crisply
identifies the key questions that must be elucidated by travel behavior researchers to help guide
policy. He identifies seven key areas in which new transport alternatives and policies are
motivating new research into travel behavior. These areas include: changes in road capacity,
traffic restraint measures, new modal alternatives, information provision, tele-services,
mobility management, and land use policies. This chapter may well prove to be the research
agenda for travel behavior research into the new century.
To further explore the methodological aspects of how to model the response of potential
tripmakers to proposed new transport alternatives and technologies, a second resource chapter
was prepared by Andrew Daly, based on his extensive professional experience in advising
agencies on such strategic questions. The chapter provides a valuable resource and practical
insights for researchers and professional developers of model systems for forecasting the
demand for new modes and transport alternatives that did not exist at the time the modeling
system is developed.
The second part of the book addresses the rapidly evolving theme of Dynamics and ITS
(Intelligent Transportation Systems) Response. This theme considers behavioral responses to
real-time information through advanced traveler information systems (ATIS), including
various forms and sources of traveler information. Research along this theme is also concerned
with within day and day-to-day choice processes, and other aspects of travel behavior
dynamics. Chapter 5, prepared by Reginald Golledge, offers an extensive state-of-the-art
assessment of developments, from a variety of disciplines, that are relevant to this theme. It is
complemented by a systematic discussion of the behavioral dimensions of ITS response, and
the substantive and methodological research opportunities offered by this more recent area of
travel behavior. While initiated as a workshop report, this chapter, prepared by Ennio Cascetta
and Isam Kaysi, has grown into a full-fledged resource chapter that nicely complements and
augments Golledge's contribution.
The third theme represents another area where telecommunications technologies present strong
interactions with travel behavior. Titled Telecommunications-Travel Interactions, the intent of
the theme is to extend the scope of interest beyond telecommuting, which has been the primary
focus of most previous work in travel behavior in this general area. With the provocatively
titled "Emerging Travel Patterns: Do Telecommunications Make a Difference?", Patricia
Mokhtarian and Ilan Solomon, who have individually and jointly pioneered and defined this
area of investigation, collaborated on a seminal resource contribution (Chapter 7) for this
volume. This chapter is as close as our field is likely to get to a definitive, authoritative
assessment of where we are, and where we are likely to go in understanding the interaction
between telecommunications and travel. With continuing rapid development and deployment
of telecommunication technologies, coming unto third generation (3G) broadband wireless
access to the Internet, there will likely be no shortage of challenges and opportunities to
understand travel and telecommunication behavior jointly in the context of activity
participation and scheduling over time and space. An example of such joint investigation is
provided by Dirk Zumkeller in Chapter 8, illustrating a novel survey approach used in
Germany and Korea. The workshop dealing with this theme proved highly successful,
producing an excellent document (Chapter 9) carefully put together by David Hensher and
Jackie Golob. The chapter articulates important conceptual notions that form the basis of an
advanced methodological framework to jointly examine telecommunication and travel
activities. In particular, the concept of the content mix of an activity, and the resulting mixed
content framework, hold intriguing promise for further development of this theme.
The fourth part of the book addresses a relatively new area of interest in the travel behavior
community, namely Travel Behavior-Land Use Interactions. This theme addresses the effects
of land-use characteristics and the physical environment on travel behavior, including
Foreword xv
pedestrianization and bicycle use, traveler attitudes and perceptions associated with
neighborhood characteristics, and the potentials to use land-use policies to bring about changes
in travel behavior. To reflect the wide range of theoretical, methodological and disciplinary
perspectives that bear upon this theme, two resource chapters are included. The first (Chapter
10), by Susan Handy, presents the issues primarily from the perspective of the planning
community, reflecting concerns for the built environment, land use policy and neighborhood
accessibility. These themes are amplified in the research presented by Roger Gorham in
Chapter 11, which examines the effect of neighborhood characteristics on travel behavior.
Chapter 12 contains the second resource paper, prepared by Francisco Martinez. It presents
more of the microeconomic perspective underlying much of the mathematical models of land
use and location processes, considered jointly with the demand for travel. The interaction of
land use and travel behavior and the demand for transport presents a fertile field of scientific
and methodological investigation for the travel behavior research community. The diversity of
disciplines and perspectives, as well as the range of policy questions that motivate such
research were encouraged to interact and exchange views during the Austin meeting, resulting
in the workshop report prepared by Ed Weiner and Roger Gorham, and included in Chapter 13.
As activity-based approaches to travel behavior and demand analysis have continued to gain
acceptance beyond the research community and into the practicing community of planners and
demand modelers, the natural connection between activity participation and time use is the
natural frontier to conquer. Research into Time Use forms the fifth theme of the volume. It
addresses emerging developments and multi-disciplinary perspectives on the analysis and
prediction of travel behavior in the context of tripmaker time allocation to various activities.
Time use research has been of interest to sociologists for many years, and a learned society
exists to deal specifically with time use issues. The Austin meeting marked the first formal
attempt at a rapprochement of intellectual perspectives between the time use and travel
behavior research communities, as the focus of interest converges on understanding time use
and allocation, albeit with different ultimate objectives. This volume features a resource
chapter co-authored by two of the leading scholars on time use research, primarily from a
sociological and anthropological perspective. Nelly Kalfs and Andrew Harvey collaborated on
this effort, presented in Chapter 14. A second resource chapter (Chapter 15) was prepared by
the late Eric Pas, as noted earlier; this chapter constitutes his last known work to be published,
and reflects the best thinking in the travel behavior community on the issues that consideration
of time use introduces to understanding mobility, and on the challenges and prospects of
integrating this aspect of human behavior in models of travel behavior. These same issues were
addressed and debated in a workshop setting, resulting in Chapter 16, prepared by Ryuichi
Kitamura.
xvi In Perpetual Motion: Travel Behaviour Research Opportunities and Challenges
Part six of the book addresses Travel Behavior Measurement issues and techniques, and related
analysis methods, with a focus on novel, non-traditional and technology-assisted measurement
techniques. Measurement of actual behavior, associated perceptions and underlying attitudes is
a critical requirement for understanding and modeling travel behavior. Chapter 17, by Tony
Richardson, provides the resource contribution to this topic in this volume, highlighting current
issues in travel and activity surveys. One of the most vexing issues faced by survey designers
and analysts is to obtain the cooperation of survey respondents. Various schemes have been
devised over the years to "incentivize" potential respondents. But how reliable are responses
supplied primarily for the purpose of earning a prize? This issue is addressed by Peter Bonsall
in Chapter 18, in a study that has already been widely discussed in the travel behavior research
community. It is another important contribution in this volume, and is likely to become a
classic in the study of survey methods.
Measurements of travel behavior often form the basis for the development of mathematical
models to represent users' choice behavior along the various dimensions of travel and activity
participation. As noted in virtually all the other themes in this volume, growing complexity of
the travel behavior processes of interest to researchers and policy-makers, and increasing
sophistication in the ability to measure dynamic aspects of travel and activity at the micro scale
give rise to interesting methodological challenges for analysis and model development. A
comprehensive tour of pertinent developments and applications of econometric and
psychometric methods and statistical modeling techniques to travel and activity behavior is
provided by Chandra Bhat in Chapter 19, which forms the resource contribution to the
Methodological Developments theme of part seven of the volume. Much attention in that
chapter is devoted to the structure of individual discrete choice models, under different
behavioral assumptions and data generating processes. The chapter provides an excellent entry
point for econometricians interested in assessing the prevailing level of sophistication in
methodological approaches used in travel behavior research.
dynamism of this field, and conveys the promise of many more challenging debates in the
years to come.
One of the practical objectives that motivates much methodological development in travel
behavior analysis is the application of the behavioral models to forecast the future demand for
travel under different scenarios. Part eight of this volume has as its theme the Forecasting
process, including the rationale and procedures for forecasting future demand using dynamic
models of travel behavior in a network context, and the relation of such forecasts to the policy
decision process. Such models provide new capabilities to examine the system's evolution
under alternative travel policies instead of focusing on a single time point in the future, and
recognize more explicitly the interaction between policy decisions and alternative future paths.
The scope of this theme also includes the input forecasts required to drive most travel
forecasting models, and methods by which to develop such forecasts. This theme is addressed
comprehensively in the resource chapter (Chapter 23) prepared by Kostas Goulias.
Forecasting would not be a challenge without uncertainties to contend with. Chapter 24, by
Charles Raux, discusses a strategic decision-making approach for controlling forecasting
uncertainties. A workshop report, prepared by Kostas Goulias, is included as Chapter 25.
The last section of the book deals with an emerging methodological theme that is growing in
significance with the need to apply micro-models of travel behavior for policy assessment and
impact forecasting. The Microsimulation of Travel Activities in Networks theme addresses
theoretical and methodological issues in the development of microsimulation procedures for
the application and implementation of activity-based approaches and other emerging and
existing travel behavior analysis methods. Eric Miller and Paul Salvini provide a valuable
resource contribution in Chapter 26 that should serve as an excellent entry point into this topic
area for travel behavior analysts who may have had only limited exposure to this
methodological domain. While not strictly a microsimulation application. Chapter 27, a
collaboration between Pia Koskenoja and the late Eric Pas, provides important new directions
on how to approach complexity and activity-based travel analysis and modeling. Workshop
participants tried to grapple with many issues associated with the application of
microsimulation approaches, and tried to transfer some of the experience developed with these
methods in the area of traffic simulation to that of activity and travel behavior modeling. The
report from these deliberations, prepared by Kay Axhausen and Ram Pendyala, is included as
Chapter 28.
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