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STRATEGIES TO COPE WITH RISKS
OF UNCERTAIN WATER SUPPLY IN
SPATE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS

EIMAN MOHAMED FADUL BASHIR

Thesis committee

Promotor
Prof. Dr C.M.S. de Fraiture
Professor of Hydraulic Engineering for Land and Water Development
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education & Wageningen University & Research

Co-promotor
Dr I. Masih
Senior Lecturer in Water Resources Planning
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education

Other members
Prof. Dr R. Uijlenhoet, Wageningen University & Research
Prof. Dr N.C. van de Giesen, TUDelft
Prof. Dr C. Zevenbergen, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education & TUDelft
Dr A.M. Elkhidir Osman, University of Khartoum, Sudan

This research was conducted under the auspices of the SENSE Research School for
Socio-Economic and Natural Sciences of the Environment
STRATEGIES TO COPE WITH RISKS
OF UNCERTAIN WATER SUPPLY IN
SPATE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS

Thesis
submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of
the Academic Board of Wageningen University and
the Academic Board of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
for the degree of doctor
to be defended in public
on Wednesday, 8 January 2020, at 3 p.m.
in Delft, the Netherlands

by

Eiman Mohamed Fadul Bashir

Born in Wad Medani, Sudan
CRC Press/Balkema is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

© 2020, Eiman Fadul

Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the
information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers, the author nor IHE
Delft for any damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this
publication and/or the information contained herein.

A pdf version of this work will be made available as Open Access via
https://ihedelftrepository.contentdm.oclc.org. This version is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International License,
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Published by:
CRC Press/Balkema
Schipholweg 107C, 2316 XC, Leiden, the Netherlands
[email protected]
www.crcpress.com – www.taylorandfrancis.com

ISBN: 978-0-367-46582-7 (Taylor & Francis Group)

ISBN: 978-94-6395-157-9 (Wageningen University)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18174/502551
To my mother, husband and daughters

To the memory of my beloved late father

 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my promoter Prof. Dr Charlotte de Fraiture
for sharing her vast experience and knowledge with me and for providing continuous
support and advice along the PhD years. Your conscientious support and insightful critical
comments enormously helped in my professional growth and academic development. I
am very honoured to have you as my promotor. Thank you for the guidance during the
Ph.D. research.

I gratefully acknowledge with thanks, the precious supervision and guidance provided by
my co-promoter Dr Ilyas Masih who accepted to join the supervision team in the third
year. Many thanks for his knowledge, encouragement, patience and numerous time spent
in keeping me in the right track. You were always present when I needed a short talk or
loud thinking to guide me safely to concrete ideas.

I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to the Land and Water Development
Core staff of the Water Science and Engineering Department, in particular Dr F.X.
Suryadi for his great advices and experience sharing on irrigation models.

I would like to forward my sincere gratitude to the Dutch government and Netherland
Fellowship Program (NUFFIC) for financing the expenses of this research. Further, I
would like to acknowledge the Spate Irrigation Project funded by IFAD in Sudan for
providing the platform to connect with the spate irrigation network in Sudan which
facilitate research fieldwork.

Special thanks here to Gash Agricultural Scheme- Ministry of Agriculture, Gash River
Training Unit & Hydraulic Research Centre- Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources,
Agricultural Research Corporation in Kassala, the Supreme Council of Water Users
Associations in Gash, and the Gash Sustainable Livelihoods Regeneration Project – IFAD
for their uncountable technical and logistical support. I would like to extend my deepest
appreciation to Gash farmers and the authorities of Gash Agricultural Scheme; Mr. Kamal
Ali and Mr. Mohamed Abdalla who provided all the facilities for data collection and
database of the scheme. I am also thankful to Mr. Moawia Abdelfatah Mustafa from
Kassal from Gash Research Station who provided a major part in data collection and
laboratory analysis of soil samples.

I will take also this opportunity to forward my appreciation to Jolanda Boots, Niamh
Mckenna, Anique Karsten, Loes Westerveen and other staffs of IHE Delft, for their kindly
help and cooperation on addressing and managing all the administrative issues.

vii
Acknowledgment

My sincerest gratefulness to all my friends and colleagues at IHE who are the real
takeover treasure from the study experience at IHE. We shared the ups and down
moments and the joy of having a paper being accepted and published.

Lastly, I would like to thank my husband Dr Raaed Mohamed Elhassan for his patience
and complete support during the PhD process. Discussions based on his research
background in the field of agriculture were extremely useful and appreciated. My beloved
daughters Deena and Yasmin were extremely understanding, supportive, and tolerant
during my home absence. Heartiest appreciation to my caring mother Khadiga and late
father Mohamed Fadul who were always proud of me.

There are definitely some people I have missed to mention in this acknowledgement, but
your contributions are greatly appreciated.

Eiman Fadul

Delft, December 2019

viii
 SUMMARY
Spate irrigation is a flood-based irrigation, a special type of irrigated agriculture that has
been practiced in arid and semi-arid regions for centuries. The irrigation is based on
diverting into the low lands the highly variable and unpredictable flash floods from
valleys and ephemeral rivers using gravity force. Water supply in spate irrigation system
is highly uncertain with likelihoods of receiving both extremely destructive flood and
drought years. The uncertainty is inherent in the flooding time, volume of River flows,
and in the annual irrigable area. Irrigation systems are frequently exposed to the impacts
of climate variability and related extreme events such as floods and droughts which could
result in large losses in agriculture productivity, assets and lives. Water supply risk and
strategies to cope with climate variability in spate system needs to be addressed because
spate irrigation contributes to the livelihoods and food security of marginalized
populations in water scarce regions, where occasional floods are often one of the few
sources of water for irrigated agriculture. Generally, studies on spate irrigation systems
are limited. Particularly in Sudan, spate system have been neglected in national
development plans and strategies. In addition, risk and coping strategies assessment in
poor rural community systems, such as spate irrigation, has not been adequately addressed
in the literature. In this context, this research aims to assess the main sources of risk and
coping strategies due to uncertain water supply in spate-irrigated systems. The case study
of this research is the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS) in eastern Sudan.

The research was conducted through the development of few methodological frameworks
for risk and coping strategies assessment. Several methods were employed for data
collection using field survey; questionnaires; and secondary data, and data analysis
employing statistics, optimisation and modelling. For water supply risk assessment, a
novel attempt is made to apply the SPRC (Source-Pathway-Receptors-Consequence)
model originally developed for the flood risk management context, to a spate irrigation
system in an arid region in Africa. The SPRC model, build upon the primary and
secondary data, profoundly assisted in clearly comprehending and describing the sources
of risks, propagation pathways, risk perceptions and consequences for the farmers, water
user associations and water managers in the GAS. For coping strategies assessment, the
Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to identify
strategies to cope with different water supply risks in the study area. Additionally, the
mDSS4 (The MULINO Decision Support System) tool was employed to evaluate the
effectiveness of the coping strategies. Then surface irrigation modelling using WinSRFR
model was used to evaluate performance of locally developed practice for on-farm
improvements for field design and water application. Performance of alternative designs
and application times were simulated for different flood risks. Irrigation performance of

ix
Summary

different combinations was then examined using application efficiency, distribution

uniformity, and adequacy criteria to obtain the best performing scenario. Last, a
conceptual framework for establishment of real options in spate irrigation characterized
by flexibility was developed with application in traditional, improved traditional and
modernized spate irrigation systems.

The SPRC was a useful framework for analyzing risks at different spatial scales and for
different stakeholders in the spate irrigation system. Based on limited knowledge and lack
of flash flood forecasting systems, water flow to the irrigation system was unpredictable,
uncertain with regard to volume, timing and duration. The stakeholders perceived flood
risks as low flood, high flood, short flood, extended flood, early flood and late flood risks.
Observations of flood events in the historical records of hydro-climatic data were
categorized based on stakeholder’s perceptions on threshold values for low flood, high
flood, short flood, extended flood, early flood and late flood. Findings showed that
farmers, WUAs and system managers perceived the risks from floods differently. The
farmers were primarily concerned by low floods, while the WUAs were more disturbed
by untimely floods. The system managers were most troubled by high and potentially
destructive floods. The poor state of the infrastructure, lack of proper maintenance and
suboptimal operation aggravated the consequences of unpredictable flows. Consequently,
the resultant impacts were low crop yield, highly variable crop production and highly
variable irrigated area.

The assessment of the effectiveness of existing coping strategies practiced by farmers,

WUAS, and water managers revealed the most effective measures were crop management
in terms of variety and change crop choices for farmers; pre-flood preparedness, risk
sharing measures through water and land management during and after flood for WUAs;
and flexibility in system operation by water managers. Unfortunately, the most effective
measures were not the most adopted ones. The level of adoption is primarily related to
the capacity of the farmers, WUAs and water managers to implement the measures
without outside support.

Three strategies were investigated to evaluate performance of locally developed practice

for on-farm improvements for field design and water application namely; time
management strategy, improved field design with time management strategy and
improved field design with flow management strategy. The second strategy resulted in
the highest performance indicator values compared to other strategies. The adoption of
improved field design with time management strategy resulted in the highest performance
indicator values compared to other strategies, can save 40% of the current application
time during large flood seasons, and 20% during medium flood seasons.

A conceptual, framework for flexibility consideration in spate irrigation was developed

and applied. The framework consisted of four principle questions, eight main flexibility

x
 Summary

features and five sub-features that were found to adequately represent flexibility in spate
irrigation systems. The conceptual framework demonstrated its beneficial use for the
evaluation of spate irrigation system through its application on traditional, improved
traditional, and modern spate systems to cope with high peak flood, low peak flood and
untimely flood events.

A key contribution of this PhD thesis is the development of methodology frameworks for
risk and coping strategies assessment in spate irrigation systems. This research developed
approaches on how risks in spate irrigation systems could be assessed to enhance
irrigation performance and equity to support farmers trapped in poverty and illiteracy.
Additionally, water related risk management in low cost rural community system, such
as spate irrigation system in arid and semi-arid zones, has been presented to the literature.
Further, this research showed that spate irrigation performance could be optimized when
proper set of coping strategies/real options are in place. Flexibility of spate irrigation
systems are enhanced by adoption of real options to cope with variability and uncertainty
of water supply.

xi
xii
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Strategies to Cope with Risks of Uncertain Water Supply in Spate Irrigation

Systems ............................................................................................................................. i
Strategies to Cope with Risks of Uncertain Water Supply in Spate Irrigation
Systems ........................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgments......................................................................................................... vii
Summary ........................................................................................................................ ix
Table of contents.......................................................................................................... xiii
List of Figures ............................................................................................................. xvii
List of Tables................................................................................................................ xix
1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Spate irrigation................................................................................................... 2
1.2 Risk of uncertain water supply .......................................................................... 3
1.3 Strategies to cope with risk ................................................................................ 4
1.4 Problem statement.............................................................................................. 4
1.5 Objectives .......................................................................................................... 5
1.6 Case study area .................................................................................................. 6
1.7 Methods ............................................................................................................. 8
1.8 Thesis outline ..................................................................................................... 9
2 Risks of uncertain water supply in spate irrigation............................................ 11
2.1 Introduction...................................................................................................... 12
2.2 Data and methods............................................................................................. 13
2.2.1 The SPRC conceptual model.................................................................... 13
2.2.2 Sampling method...................................................................................... 14
2.3 Results and discussion ..................................................................................... 15
2.3.1 Sources of risks based on the hydro-climatic data ................................... 15
2.3.2 Sources of risk based on farmers’ perceptions ......................................... 17
2.3.3 Pathways linking risks to receptors .......................................................... 19
2.3.4 Receptors – Those who bear the risks ...................................................... 21
2.3.5 Consequences ........................................................................................... 23
2.3.6 Applying the SPRC model in the spate irrigation setting......................... 24
2.4 Conclusions...................................................................................................... 26
3 Adaptation strategies to cope with low, high and untimely floods: Lessons from
the Gash spate irrigation system, Sudan .................................................................... 29

xiii
Table of contents

3.1 Introduction...................................................................................................... 30
3.2 Data and methods............................................................................................. 31
3.2.1The mDSS4 tool............................................................................................... 32
3.2.2 Indicator selection and scoring ....................................................................... 33
3.3 Results & discussion ........................................................................................ 35
3.1.1 Elements of DPSIR................................................................................... 35
3.1.2 Identification of measures against uncertain water supply....................... 36
3.1.3 Evaluation of measures for the adopted strategies ................................... 41
3.1.4 Performance and adoption of flood strategies .......................................... 48
3.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 53
4 Irrigation performance under alternative field designs in a spate irrigation
system with large field dimensions.............................................................................. 55
4.1 Introduction...................................................................................................... 56
4.2 Materials and methods ..................................................................................... 57
4.2.1 Field water management........................................................................... 57
4.2.2 Data and tools ........................................................................................... 60
4.3 Results and discussion ..................................................................................... 65
4.3.1 Model calibration ............................................................................................ 65
4.3.2 Performance of improved strategies ............................................................... 66
4.3.3 Optimum choice.............................................................................................. 72
4.3.4 Sensitivity analysis ......................................................................................... 74
4.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 76
5 Flexibility as a strategy to cope with uncertain water supply in spate irrigation
77
5.1 Introduction...................................................................................................... 78
5.1.1 Technology options in spate irrigation system ............................................... 79
5.2 Conceptual framework for flexibility in spate irrigation systems ................... 83
5.3 Flexibility and real options in times of high, low and untimely floods ........... 91
5.3.1 High flood event ............................................................................................. 91
5.3.2 Low flood event .............................................................................................. 94
5.3.3 Untimely flood event ...................................................................................... 95
5.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 96
6 Conclusions and recommendations...................................................................... 99
6.1 General........................................................................................................... 100
6.2 Conclusions.................................................................................................... 101
6.2.1 Main sources of risk...................................................................................... 102
6.2.2 Coping strategies and adoption..................................................................... 102
6.2.3 Performance of alternative measures ............................................................ 103
6.2.4 Real options to cope with uncertainty and variability .................................. 104

xiv
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