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Introduction to Probability and
Statistics for Engineers and Scientists
Introduction to Probability
and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientists
Sixth Edition

Sheldon M. Ross
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA, United States
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AS, United Kingdom
525 B Street, Suite 1650, San Diego, CA 92101, United States
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic
or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system,
without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further
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as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website:
www.elsevier.com/permissions.
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the
Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience
broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment
may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating
and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such
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contained in the material herein.

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Contents

PREFACE ...........................................................................................................xiii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction to statistics............................................................ 1
1.1 Introduction ....................................................................... 1
1.2 Data collection and descriptive statistics........................ 1
1.3 Inferential statistics and probability models................... 2
1.4 Populations and samples ................................................. 3
1.5 A brief history of statistics................................................ 4
Problems ........................................................................... 7
CHAPTER 2 Descriptive statistics................................................................ 11
2.1 Introduction ..................................................................... 11
2.2 Describing data sets ....................................................... 12
2.2.1 Frequency tables and graphs ............................. 12
2.2.2 Relative frequency tables and graphs................ 14
2.2.3 Grouped data, histograms, ogives, and
stem and leaf plots.............................................. 16
2.3 Summarizing data sets................................................... 19
2.3.1 Sample mean, sample median, and sample
mode..................................................................... 19
2.3.2 Sample variance and sample standard
deviation ............................................................... 24
2.3.3 Sample percentiles and box plots ...................... 26
2.4 Chebyshev’s inequality ................................................... 29
2.5 Normal data sets ............................................................ 33
2.6 Paired data sets and the sample
correlation coefficient..................................................... 36
2.7 The Lorenz curve and Gini index.................................... 43
2.8 Using R ............................................................................ 48
Problems ......................................................................... 52
CHAPTER 3 Elements of probability............................................................ 63
3.1 Introduction ..................................................................... 63
3.2 Sample space and events............................................... 64 vii
viii Contents

3.3 Venn diagrams and the algebra of events..................... 66


3.4 Axioms of probability ...................................................... 67
3.5 Sample spaces having equally likely outcomes............ 70
3.6 Conditional probability.................................................... 75
3.7 Bayes’ formula ................................................................ 79
3.8 Independent events ........................................................ 86
Problems ......................................................................... 89
CHAPTER 4 Random variables and expectation......................................... 99
4.1 Random variables ........................................................... 99
4.2 Types of random variables ........................................... 102
4.3 Jointly distributed random variables........................... 105
4.3.1 Independent random variables......................... 111
4.3.2 Conditional distributions................................... 114
4.4 Expectation.................................................................... 117
4.5 Properties of the expected value ................................. 121
4.5.1 Expected value of sums of random variables.. 124
4.6 Variance ......................................................................... 128
4.7 Covariance and variance of sums of
random variables .......................................................... 132
4.8 Moment generating functions...................................... 138
4.9 Chebyshev’s inequality and the weak law of large
numbers ........................................................................ 139
Problems ....................................................................... 142
CHAPTER 5 Special random variables ...................................................... 151
5.1 The Bernoulli and binomial random variables ........... 151
5.1.1 Using R to calculate binomial probabilities..... 157
5.2 The Poisson random variable....................................... 158
5.2.1 Using R to calculate Poisson probabilities ...... 166
5.3 The hypergeometric random variable ......................... 167
5.4 The uniform random variable ...................................... 171
5.5 Normal random variables ............................................ 179
5.6 Exponential random variables ..................................... 190
5.6.1 The Poisson process ......................................... 193
5.6.2 The Pareto distribution ..................................... 196
5.7 The gamma distribution ............................................... 199
5.8 Distributions arising from the normal ........................ 201
5.8.1 The chi-square distribution .............................. 201
5.8.2 The t -distribution .............................................. 206
5.8.3 The F -distribution ............................................. 208
5.9 The logistics distribution .............................................. 209
5.10 Distributions in R .......................................................... 210
Problems ....................................................................... 212
Contents ix

CHAPTER 6 Distributions of sampling statistics ...................................... 221


6.1 Introduction ................................................................... 221
6.2 The sample mean ......................................................... 222
6.3 The central limit theorem ............................................ 224
6.3.1 Approximate distribution of the sample mean 227
6.3.2 How large a sample is needed?........................ 230
6.4 The sample variance..................................................... 230
6.5 Sampling distributions from a normal population ..... 231
6.5.1 Distribution of the sample mean...................... 232
6.5.2 Joint distribution of X and S 2 ........................... 232
6.6 Sampling from a finite population ............................... 234
Problems ....................................................................... 238
CHAPTER 7 Parameter estimation............................................................ 245
7.1 Introduction ................................................................... 245
7.2 Maximum likelihood estimators .................................. 246
7.2.1 Estimating life distributions ............................. 255
7.3 Interval estimates ......................................................... 257
7.3.1 Confidence interval for a normal mean when
the variance is unknown ................................... 262
7.3.2 Prediction intervals ........................................... 268
7.3.3 Confidence intervals for the variance of a
normal distribution ........................................... 269
7.4 Estimating the difference in means of two normal
populations.................................................................... 270
7.5 Approximate confidence interval for the mean of a
Bernoulli random variable ........................................... 275
7.6 Confidence interval of the mean of the exponential
distribution ................................................................... 280
7.7 Evaluating a point estimator ........................................ 281
7.8 The Bayes estimator..................................................... 287
Problems ....................................................................... 292
CHAPTER 8 Hypothesis testing ................................................................. 305
8.1 Introduction ................................................................... 305
8.2 Significance levels ........................................................ 306
8.3 Tests concerning the mean of a normal population... 307
8.3.1 Case of known variance .................................... 307
8.3.2 Case of unknown variance: the t -test.............. 319
8.4 Testing the equality of means of two normal
populations.................................................................... 326
8.4.1 Case of known variances .................................. 326
8.4.2 Case of unknown variances .............................. 328
8.4.3 Case of unknown and unequal variances ........ 333
8.4.4 The paired t -test................................................ 333
8.5 Hypothesis tests concerning the variance of a
normal population ........................................................ 336
x Contents

8.5.1 Testing for the equality of variances of two


normal populations ........................................... 337
8.6 Hypothesis tests in Bernoulli populations .................. 339
8.6.1 Testing the equality of parameters in two
Bernoulli populations........................................ 342
8.7 Tests concerning the mean of a Poisson distribution 345
8.7.1 Testing the relationship between two
Poisson parameters .......................................... 346
Problems ....................................................................... 348
CHAPTER 9 Regression.............................................................................. 365
9.1 Introduction ................................................................... 365
9.2 Least squares estimators of the
regression parameters................................................. 367
9.3 Distribution of the estimators ...................................... 371
9.4 Statistical inferences about the
regression parameters................................................. 377
9.4.1 Inferences concerning β ................................... 377
9.4.2 Inferences concerning α ................................... 386
9.4.3 Inferences concerning the mean response
α + βx0 ............................................................... 386
9.4.4 Prediction interval of a future response .......... 389
9.4.5 Summary of distributional results ................... 392
9.5 The coefficient of determination and the sample
correlation coefficient................................................... 392
9.6 Analysis of residuals: assessing the model ................ 395
9.7 Transforming to linearity.............................................. 396
9.8 Weighted least squares ................................................ 400
9.9 Polynomial regression.................................................. 406
9.10 Multiple linear regression ............................................ 410
9.10.1 Predicting future responses ............................. 420
9.10.2 Dummy variables for categorical data ............. 424
9.11 Logistic regression models for binary output data..... 425
Problems ....................................................................... 429
CHAPTER 10 Analysis of variance ............................................................... 453
10.1 Introduction ................................................................... 453
10.2 An overview ................................................................... 454
10.3 One-way analysis of variance....................................... 456
10.3.1 Using R to do the computations ....................... 463
10.3.2 Multiple comparisons of sample means.......... 466
10.3.3 One-way analysis of variance with unequal
sample sizes ...................................................... 468
10.4 Two-factor analysis of variance: introduction and
parameter estimation................................................... 470
10.5 Two-factor analysis of variance: testing hypotheses.. 474
Contents xi

10.6 Two-way analysis of variance with interaction ........... 479


Problems ....................................................................... 487
CHAPTER 11 Goodness of fit tests and categorical data analysis............. 499
11.1 Introduction ................................................................... 499
11.2 Goodness of fit tests when all parameters are
specified ........................................................................ 500
11.2.1 Determining the critical region by simulation. 506
11.3 Goodness of fit tests when some parameters are
unspecified .................................................................... 508
11.4 Tests of independence in contingency tables.............. 510
11.5 Tests of independence in contingency tables having
fixed marginal totals..................................................... 514
11.6 The Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness of fit test for
continuous data............................................................. 517
Problems ....................................................................... 522
CHAPTER 12 Nonparametric hypothesis tests........................................... 529
12.1 Introduction ................................................................... 529
12.2 The sign test.................................................................. 529
12.3 The signed rank test ..................................................... 533
12.4 The two-sample problem ............................................. 538
12.4.1 Testing the equality of multiple probability
distributions....................................................... 541
12.5 The runs test for randomness ..................................... 544
Problems ....................................................................... 547
CHAPTER 13 Quality control ........................................................................ 555
13.1 Introduction ................................................................... 555
13.2 Control charts for average values: the x control
chart............................................................................... 556
13.2.1 Case of unknown μ and σ ................................. 559
13.3 S-control charts ............................................................ 564
13.4 Control charts for the fraction defective ..................... 567
13.5 Control charts for number of defects.......................... 569
13.6 Other control charts for detecting changes in the
population mean ........................................................... 573
13.6.1 Moving-average control charts ........................ 573
13.6.2 Exponentially weighted moving-average
control charts .................................................... 576
13.6.3 Cumulative sum control charts ........................ 581
Problems ....................................................................... 583
CHAPTER 14 Life testing∗ ............................................................................ 591
14.1 Introduction ................................................................... 591
14.2 Hazard rate functions ................................................... 591

∗ Optional chapter.
xii Contents

14.3 The exponential distribution in life testing.................. 594


14.3.1 Simultaneous testing — stopping at the rth
failure ................................................................. 594
14.3.2 Sequential testing ............................................. 599
14.3.3 Simultaneous testing — stopping by a fixed
time .................................................................... 603
14.3.4 The Bayesian approach ..................................... 606
14.4 A two-sample problem ................................................. 607
14.5 The Weibull distribution in life testing......................... 609
14.5.1 Parameter estimation by least squares........... 611
Problems ....................................................................... 613
CHAPTER 15 Simulation, bootstrap statistical methods, and
permutation tests................................................................... 619
15.1 Introduction ................................................................... 619
15.2 Random numbers ......................................................... 619
15.2.1 The Monte Carlo simulation approach............. 622
15.3 The bootstrap method .................................................. 623
15.4 Permutation tests ......................................................... 631
15.4.1 Normal approximations in permutation tests . 634
15.4.2 Two-sample permutation tests ........................ 637
15.5 Generating discrete random variables........................ 639
15.6 Generating continuous random variables................... 641
15.6.1 Generating a normal random variable............. 643
15.7 Determining the number of simulation runs
in a Monte Carlo study.................................................. 644
Problems ....................................................................... 645
CHAPTER 16 Machine learning and big data.............................................. 649
16.1 Introduction ................................................................... 649
16.2 Late flight probabilities ................................................ 650
16.3 The naive Bayes approach............................................ 651
16.3.1 A variation of naive Bayes approach ................ 654
16.4 Distance-based estimators. The k-nearest
neighbors rule............................................................... 657
16.4.1 A distance-weighted method............................ 658
16.4.2 Component-weighted distances....................... 659
16.5 Assessing the approaches............................................ 660
16.6 When characterizing vectors are quantitative ............ 662
16.6.1 Nearest neighbor rules ..................................... 662
16.6.2 Logistics regression .......................................... 663
16.7 Choosing the best probability: a bandit problem........ 664
Problems ....................................................................... 666
APPENDIX OF TABLES ................................................................................... 669
INDEX .............................................................................................................. 673
Preface

The sixth edition of this book continues to demonstrate how to apply probabil-
ity theory to gain insight into real, everyday statistical problems and situations.
As in the previous editions, carefully developed coverage of probability mo-
tivates probabilistic models of real phenomena and the statistical procedures
that follow. This approach ultimately results in an intuitive understanding of
statistical procedures and strategies most often used by practicing engineers
and scientists.
This book has been written for an introductory course in statistics or in proba-
bility and statistics for students in engineering, computer science, mathematics,
statistics, and the natural sciences. As such it assumes knowledge of elementary
calculus.

Organization and coverage


Chapter 1 presents a brief introduction to statistics, presenting its two branches
of descriptive and inferential statistics, and a short history of the subject and
some of the people whose early work provided a foundation for work done
today.
The subject matter of descriptive statistics is then considered in Chapter 2.
Graphs and tables that describe a data set are presented in this chapter, as are
quantities that are used to summarize certain of the key properties of the data
set.
To be able to draw conclusions from data, it is necessary to have an under-
standing of the data’s origination. For instance, it is often assumed that the
data constitute a “random sample” from some population. To understand ex-
actly what this means and what its consequences are for relating properties of
the sample data to properties of the entire population, it is necessary to have
some understanding of probability, and that is the subject of Chapter 3. This
chapter introduces the idea of a probability experiment, explains the concept
of the probability of an event, and presents the axioms of probability. xiii
xiv Preface

Our study of probability is continued in Chapter 4, which deals with the


important concepts of random variables and expectation, and in Chapter 5,
which considers some special types of random variables that often occur in ap-
plications. Such random variables as the binomial, Poisson, hypergeometric,
normal, uniform, gamma, chi-square, t, and F are presented.
In Chapter 6, we study the probability distribution of such sampling statistics
as the sample mean and the sample variance. We show how to use a remark-
able theoretical result of probability, known as the central limit theorem, to
approximate the probability distribution of the sample mean. In addition, we
present the joint probability distribution of the sample mean and the sample
variance in the important special case in which the underlying data come from
a normally distributed population.
Chapter 7 shows how to use data to estimate parameters of interest. For in-
stance, a scientist might be interested in determining the proportion of Mid-
western lakes that are afflicted by acid rain. Two types of estimators are studied.
The first of these estimates the quantity of interest with a single number (for
instance, it might estimate that 47 percent of Midwestern lakes suffer from acid
rain), whereas the second provides an estimate in the form of an interval of
values (for instance, it might estimate that between 45 and 49 percent of lakes
suffer from acid rain). These latter estimators also tell us the “level of con-
fidence” we can have in their validity. Thus, for instance, whereas we can be
pretty certain that the exact percentage of afflicted lakes is not 47, it might very
well be that we can be, say, 95 percent confident that the actual percentage is
between 45 and 49.
Chapter 8 introduces the important topic of statistical hypothesis testing,
which is concerned with using data to test the plausibility of a specified hy-
pothesis. For instance, such a test might reject the hypothesis that fewer than
44 percent of Midwestern lakes are afflicted by acid rain. The concept of the
p-value, which measures the degree of plausibility of the hypothesis after the
data have been observed, is introduced. A variety of hypothesis tests concerning
the parameters of both one and two normal populations are considered. Hy-
pothesis tests concerning Bernoulli and Poisson parameters are also presented.
Chapter 9 deals with the important topic of regression. Both simple linear
regression — including such subtopics as regression to the mean, residual anal-
ysis, and weighted least squares — and multiple linear regression are consid-
ered.
Chapter 10 introduces the analysis of variance. Both one-way and two-way
(with and without the possibility of interaction) problems are considered.
Chapter 11 is concerned with goodness of fit tests, which can be used to test
whether a proposed model is consistent with data. In it we present the classical
chi-square goodness of fit test and apply it to test for independence in con-
tingency tables. The final section of this chapter introduces the Kolmogorov–
Preface xv

Smirnov procedure for testing whether data come from a specified continuous
probability distribution.
Chapter 12 deals with nonparametric hypothesis tests, which can be used
when one is unable to suppose that the underlying distribution has some spec-
ified parametric form (such as normal).
Chapter 13 considers the subject matter of quality control, a key statistical tech-
nique in manufacturing and production processes. A variety of control charts,
including not only the Shewhart control charts but also more sophisticated
ones based on moving averages and cumulative sums, are considered.
Chapter 14 deals with problems related to life testing. In this chapter, the ex-
ponential, rather than the normal, distribution plays the key role.
In Chapter 15, we consider the statistical inference techniques of bootstrap sta-
tistical methods and permutation tests. We first show how probabilities can be
obtained by simulation and then how to utilize simulation in these statistical
inference approaches.
Chapter 16, new to this edition, introduces machine learning and big data
techniques. These are methods that are applicable in situations where one has
a large amount of data that can be used to estimate probabilities without as-
suming any particular probability model. For instance, we consider situations
where one wants to estimate the probability that an experiment, characterized
by a vector (x1 , . . . , xn ), will be a success. When the characterizing vectors are
qualitative in nature, such techniques as the naive Bayes approach, and nearest
neighbor rules are studied. In cases where the components of the characteristic
vector are quantitative, we also study logistic regression models.
Aside from the newly added Chapter 16, the most important change in this
edition is the use of the statistical software R. No previous experience with R is
necessary, and we incorporate its use throught the text. Aside from additional
subsections devoted to R. we also have the newly added Section 2.7, dealing
with Lorenz curves and the Gini index. There are also many new examples and
problems in this edition. In addition, the sixth edition contains a multitude of
small changes designed to even further increase the clarity of the text’s presen-
tations and arguments.

Supplemental materials

Solutions manual for instructors is available at: https://textbooks.elsevier.com/


web/Manuals.aspx?isbn=9780128243466.
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