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APPLIED MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS
FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

Now in its 6th edition, the authoritative textbook Applied Multivariate Statistics for
the Social Sciences, continues to provide advanced students with a practical and con-
ceptual understanding of statistical procedures through examples and data-sets from
actual research studies. With the added expertise of co-author Keenan Pituch (Univer-
sity of Texas-Austin), this 6th edition retains many key features of the previous edi-
tions, including its breadth and depth of coverage, a review chapter on matrix algebra,
applied coverage of MANOVA, and emphasis on statistical power. In this new edition,
the authors continue to provide practical guidelines for checking the data, assessing
assumptions, interpreting, and reporting the results to help students analyze data from
their own research confidently and professionally.

Features new to this edition include:

 NEW chapter on Logistic Regression (Ch. 11) that helps readers understand and
use this very flexible and widely used procedure
 NEW chapter on Multivariate Multilevel Modeling (Ch. 14) that helps readers
understand the benefits of this “newer” procedure and how it can be used in con-
ventional and multilevel settings
 NEW Example Results Section write-ups that illustrate how results should be pre-
sented in research papers and journal articles
 NEW coverage of missing data (Ch. 1) to help students understand and address
problems associated with incomplete data
 Completely re-written chapters on Exploratory Factor Analysis (Ch. 9), Hierar-
chical Linear Modeling (Ch. 13), and Structural Equation Modeling (Ch. 16) with
increased focus on understanding models and interpreting results
 NEW analysis summaries, inclusion of more syntax explanations, and reduction
in the number of SPSS/SAS dialogue boxes to guide students through data analy-
sis in a more streamlined and direct approach
 Updated syntax to reflect newest versions of IBM SPSS (21) /SAS (9.3)
 A free online resources site www.routledge.com/9780415836661 with data sets
and syntax from the text, additional data sets, and instructor’s resources (including
PowerPoint lecture slides for select chapters, a conversion guide for 5th edition
adopters, and answers to exercises).

Ideal for advanced graduate-level courses in education, psychology, and other social
sciences in which multivariate statistics, advanced statistics, or quantitative techniques
courses are taught, this book also appeals to practicing researchers as a valuable refer-
ence. Pre-requisites include a course on factorial ANOVA and covariance; however, a
working knowledge of matrix algebra is not assumed.

Keenan Pituch is Associate Professor in the Quantitative Methods Area of the Depart-
ment of Educational Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin.

James P. Stevens is Professor Emeritus at the University of Cincinnati.

APPLIED MULTIVARIATE
STATISTICS FOR THE
SOCIAL SCIENCES
Analyses with SAS and
IBM‘s SPSS

Sixth edition

Keenan A. Pituch and James P. Stevens

Sixth edition published 2016
by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor€& Francis Group, an informa business
© 2016 Taylor€& Francis
The right of Keenan A. Pituch and James P. Stevens to be identified as authors of this work has
been asserted by them in accordance with sections€77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents
Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form
or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission
in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Fifth edition published by Routledge 2009
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Pituch, Keenan A.
â•… Applied multivariate statistics for the social sciences / Keenan A. Pituch and James
P. Stevens –– 6th edition.
â•…â•…pages cm
â•… Previous edition by James P. Stevens.
â•… Includes index.
╇1.╇ Multivariate analysis.â•… 2.╇ Social sciences––Statistical methods.â•… I.╇ Stevens, James (James
Paul)╅II.╇ Title.
â•… QA278.S74 2015
â•… 519.5'350243––dc23
â•… 2015017536
ISBN 13: 978-0-415-83666-1(pbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-415-83665-4(hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-1-315-81491-9(ebk)
Typeset in Times New Roman
by Apex CoVantage, LLC

Commissioning Editor: Debra Riegert

Textbook Development Manager: Rebecca Pearce
Project Manager: Sheri Sipka
Production Editor: Alf Symons
Cover Design: Nigel Turner
Companion Website Manager: Natalya Dyer
Copyeditor: Apex CoVantage, LLC
 Keenan would like to dedicate this:
To his Wife: Elizabeth and
To his Children: Joseph and Alexis

Jim would like to dedicate this:

To his Grandsons: Henry and Killian and
To his Granddaughter: Fallon
This page intentionally left blank
CONTENTS

Preface xv

1. Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Type I€Error, Type II Error, and Power 3
1.3 Multiple Statistical Tests and the Probability
of Spurious Results 6
1.4 Statistical Significance Versus Practical Importance 10
1.5 Outliers 12
1.6 Missing Data 18
1.7 Unit or Participant Nonresponse 31
1.8 Research Examples for Some Analyses
Considered in This Text 32
1.9 The SAS and SPSS Statistical Packages 35
1.10 SAS and SPSS Syntax 35
1.11 SAS and SPSS Syntax and Data Sets on the Internet 36
1.12 Some Issues Unique to Multivariate Analysis 36
1.13 Data Collection and Integrity 37
1.14 Internal and External Validity 39
1.15 Conflict of Interest 40
1.16 Summary 40
1.17 Exercises 41
2. Matrix Algebra 44
2.1 Introduction 44
2.2 Addition, Subtraction, and Multiplication of a
Matrix by a Scalar 47
2.3 Obtaining the Matrix of Variances and Covariances 50
2.4 Determinant of a Matrix 52
2.5 Inverse of a Matrix 55
2.6 SPSS Matrix Procedure 58
viii ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 Contents

2.7 SAS IML Procedure 60

2.8 Summary 61
2.9 Exercises 61
3. Multiple Regression for Prediction 65
3.1 Introduction 65
3.2 Simple Regression 67
3.3 Multiple Regression for Two Predictors: Matrix Formulation 69
3.4 Mathematical Maximization Nature of
Least Squares Regression 72
3.5 Breakdown of Sum of Squares and F Test for
Multiple Correlation 73
3.6 Relationship of Simple Correlations to Multiple Correlation 75
3.7 Multicollinearity 75
3.8 Model Selection 77
3.9 Two Computer Examples 82
3.10 Checking Assumptions for the Regression Model 93
3.11 Model Validation 96
3.12 Importance of the Order of the Predictors 101
3.13 Other Important Issues 104
3.14 Outliers and Influential Data Points 107
3.15 Further Discussion of the Two Computer Examples 116
3.16 Sample Size Determination for a Reliable Prediction Equation 121
3.17 Other Types of Regression Analysis 124
3.18 Multivariate Regression 124
3.19 Summary 128
3.20 Exercises 129
4. Two-Group Multivariate Analysis of Variance 142
4.1 Introduction 142
4.2 Four Statistical Reasons for Preferring a Multivariate Analysis 143
4.3 The Multivariate Test Statistic as a Generalization of
the Univariate t Test 144
4.4 Numerical Calculations for a Two-Group Problem 146
4.5 Three Post Hoc Procedures 150
4.6 SAS and SPSS Control Lines for Sample Problem
and Selected Output 152
4.7 Multivariate Significance but No Univariate Significance 156
4.8 Multivariate Regression Analysis for the Sample Problem 156
4.9 Power Analysis 161
4.10 Ways of Improving Power 163
4.11 A Priori Power Estimation for a Two-Group MANOVA 165
4.12 Summary 169
4.13 Exercises 170
5. K-Group MANOVA: A Priori and Post Hoc Procedures 175
5.1 Introduction 175
 Contents ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 ix

5.2 Multivariate Regression Analysis for a Sample Problem 176

5.3 Traditional Multivariate Analysis of Variance 177
5.4 Multivariate Analysis of Variance for Sample Data 179
5.5 Post Hoc Procedures 184
5.6 The Tukey Procedure 187
5.7 Planned Comparisons 193
5.8 Test Statistics for Planned Comparisons 196
5.9 Multivariate Planned Comparisons on SPSS MANOVA 198
5.10 Correlated Contrasts 204
5.11 Studies Using Multivariate Planned Comparisons 208
5.12 Other Multivariate Test Statistics 210
5.13 How Many Dependent Variables for a MANOVA? 211
5.14 Power Analysis—A Priori Determination of Sample Size 211
5.15 Summary 213
5.16 Exercises 214
6. Assumptions in MANOVA 219
6.1 Introduction 219
6.2 ANOVA and MANOVA Assumptions 220
6.3 Independence Assumption 220
6.4 What Should Be Done With Correlated Observations? 222
6.5 Normality Assumption 224
6.6 Multivariate Normality 225
6.7 Assessing the Normality Assumption 226
6.8 Homogeneity of Variance Assumption 232
6.9 Homogeneity of the Covariance Matrices 233
6.10 Summary 240
6.11 Complete Three-Group MANOVA Example 242
6.12 Example Results Section for One-Way MANOVA 249
6.13 Analysis Summary 250
Appendix 6.1 Analyzing Correlated Observations 255
Appendix 6.2 Multivariate Test Statistics for Unequal
Covariance Matrices 259
6.14 Exercises 262
7. Factorial ANOVA and MANOVA 265
7.1 Introduction 265
7.2 Advantages of a Two-Way Design 266
7.3 Univariate Factorial Analysis 268
7.4 Factorial Multivariate Analysis of Variance 277
7.5 Weighting of the Cell Means 280
7.6 Analysis Procedures for Two-Way MANOVA 280
7.7 Factorial MANOVA With SeniorWISE Data 281
7.8 Example Results Section for Factorial MANOVA With
SeniorWise Data 290
7.9 Three-Way MANOVA 292
x ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 Contents

7.10 Factorial Descriptive Discriminant Analysis 294

7.11 Summary 298
7.12 Exercises 299
8. Analysis of Covariance 301
8.1 Introduction 301
8.2 Purposes of ANCOVA 302
8.3 Adjustment of Posttest Means and Reduction of Error Variance 303
8.4 Choice of Covariates 307
8.5 Assumptions in Analysis of Covariance 308
8.6 Use of ANCOVA With Intact Groups 311
8.7 Alternative Analyses for Pretest–Posttest Designs 312
8.8 Error Reduction and Adjustment of Posttest Means for
Several Covariates 314
8.9 MANCOVA—Several Dependent Variables and
Several Covariates 315
8.10 Testing the Assumption of Homogeneous
Hyperplanes on SPSS 316
8.11 Effect Size Measures for Group Comparisons in
MANCOVA/ANCOVA317
8.12 Two Computer Examples 318
8.13 Note on Post Hoc Procedures 329
8.14 Note on the Use of MVMM 330
8.15 Example Results Section for MANCOVA 330
8.16 Summary 332
8.17 Analysis Summary 333
8.18 Exercises 335
9. Exploratory Factor Analysis 339
9.1 Introduction 339
9.2 The Principal Components Method 340
9.3 Criteria for Determining How Many Factors to Retain
Using Principal Components Extraction 342
9.4 Increasing Interpretability of Factors by Rotation 344
9.5 What Coefficients Should Be Used for Interpretation? 346
9.6 Sample Size and Reliable Factors 347
9.7 Some Simple Factor Analyses Using Principal
Components Extraction 347
9.8 The Communality Issue 359
9.9 The Factor Analysis Model 360
9.10 Assumptions for Common Factor Analysis 362
9.11 Determining How Many Factors Are Present With
Principal Axis Factoring 364
9.12 Exploratory Factor Analysis Example With Principal Axis
Factoring365
9.13 Factor Scores 373
 Contents ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 xi

9.14 Using SPSS in Factor Analysis 376

9.15 Using SAS in Factor Analysis 378
9.16 Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis 382
9.17 Example Results Section for EFA of Reactions-to-
Tests Scale 383
9.18 Summary 385
9.19 Exercises 387
10. Discriminant Analysis 391
10.1 Introduction 391
10.2 Descriptive Discriminant Analysis 392
10.3 Dimension Reduction Analysis 393
10.4 Interpreting the Discriminant Functions 395
10.5 Minimum Sample Size 396
10.6 Graphing the Groups in the Discriminant Plane 397
10.7 Example With SeniorWISE Data 398
10.8 National Merit Scholar Example 409
10.9 Rotation of the Discriminant Functions 415
10.10 Stepwise Discriminant Analysis 415
10.11 The Classification Problem 416
10.12 Linear Versus Quadratic Classification Rule 425
10.13 Characteristics of a Good Classification Procedure 425
10.14 Analysis Summary of Descriptive Discriminant Analysis 426
10.15 Example Results Section for Discriminant Analysis of the
National Merit Scholar Example 427
10.16 Summary 429
10.17 Exercises 429
11. Binary Logistic Regression 434
11.1 Introduction 434
11.2 The Research Example 435
11.3 Problems With Linear Regression Analysis 436
11.4 Transformations and the Odds Ratio With a
Dichotomous Explanatory Variable 438
11.5 The Logistic Regression Equation With a Single
Dichotomous Explanatory Variable 442
11.6 The Logistic Regression Equation With a Single
Continuous Explanatory Variable 443
11.7 Logistic Regression as a Generalized Linear Model 444
11.8 Parameter Estimation 445
11.9 Significance Test for the Entire Model and Sets of Variables 447
11.10 McFadden’s Pseudo R-Square for Strength of Association 448
11.11 Significance Tests and Confidence Intervals for
Single Variables 450
11.12 Preliminary Analysis 451
11.13 Residuals and Influence 451
xii ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 Contents

11.14 Assumptions 453

11.15 Other Data Issues 457
11.16 Classification 458
11.17 Using SAS and SPSS for Multiple Logistic Regression 461
11.18 Using SAS and SPSS to Implement the Box–Tidwell
Procedure463
11.19 Example Results Section for Logistic Regression
With Diabetes Prevention Study 465
11.20 Analysis Summary 466
11.21 Exercises 468
12. Repeated-Measures Analysis 471
12.1 Introduction 471
12.2 Single-Group Repeated Measures 475
12.3 The Multivariate Test Statistic for Repeated Measures 477
12.4 Assumptions in Repeated-Measures Analysis 480
12.5 Computer Analysis of the Drug Data 482
12.6 Post Hoc Procedures in Repeated-Measures Analysis 487
12.7 Should We Use the Univariate or Multivariate Approach? 488
12.8 One-Way Repeated Measures—A Trend Analysis 489
12.9 Sample Size for Power€=€.80 in Single-Sample Case 494
12.10 Multivariate Matched-Pairs Analysis 496
12.11 One-Between and One-Within Design 497
12.12 Post Hoc Procedures for the One-Between and
One-Within Design 505
12.13 One-Between and Two-Within Factors 511
12.14 Two-Between and One-Within Factors 515
12.15 Two-Between and Two-Within Factors 517
12.16 Totally Within Designs 518
12.17 Planned Comparisons in Repeated-Measures Designs 520
12.18 Profile Analysis 524
12.19 Doubly Multivariate Repeated-Measures Designs 528
12.20 Summary 529
12.21 Exercises 530
13. Hierarchical Linear Modeling 537
13.1 Introduction 537
13.2 Problems Using Single-Level Analyses of
Multilevel Data 539
13.3 Formulation of the Multilevel Model 541
13.4 Two-Level Model—General Formation 541
13.5 Example 1: Examining School Differences in
Mathematics545
13.6 Centering Predictor Variables 563
13.7 Sample Size 568
13.8 Example 2: Evaluating the Efficacy of a Treatment 569
13.9 Summary 576
 Contents ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 xiii

14. Multivariate Multilevel Modeling 578

14.1 Introduction 578
14.2 Benefits of Conducting a Multivariate Multilevel
Analysis579
14.3 Research Example 580
14.4 Preparing a Data Set for MVMM Using SAS and SPSS 581
14.5 Incorporating Multiple Outcomes in the Level-1 Model 584
14.6 Example 1: Using SAS and SPSS to Conduct Two-Level
Multivariate Analysis 585
14.7 Example 2: Using SAS and SPSS to Conduct
Three-Level Multivariate Analysis 595
14.8 Summary 614
14.9 SAS and SPSS Commands Used to Estimate All
Models in the Chapter 615
15. Canonical Correlation 618
15.1 Introduction 618
15.2 The Nature of Canonical Correlation 619
15.3 Significance Tests 620
15.4 Interpreting the Canonical Variates 621
15.5 Computer Example Using SAS CANCORR 623
15.6 A€Study That Used Canonical Correlation 625
15.7 Using SAS for Canonical Correlation on
Two Sets of Factor Scores 628
15.8 The Redundancy Index of Stewart and Love 630
15.9 Rotation of Canonical Variates 631
15.10 Obtaining More Reliable Canonical Variates 632
15.11 Summary 632
15.12 Exercises 634
16. Structural Equation Modeling 639
16.1 Introduction 639
16.2 Notation, Terminology, and Software 639
16.3 Causal Inference 642
16.4 Fundamental Topics in SEM 643
16.5 Three Principal SEM Techniques 663
16.6 Observed Variable Path Analysis 663
16.7 Observed Variable Path Analysis With the Mueller
Study668
16.8 Confirmatory Factor Analysis 689
16.9 CFA With Reactions-to-Tests Data 691
16.10 Latent Variable Path Analysis 707
16.11 Latent Variable Path Analysis With Exercise Behavior
Study711
16.12 SEM Considerations 719
16.13 Additional Models in SEM 724
16.14 Final Thoughts 726
xiv ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 Contents

Appendix 16.1 Abbreviated SAS Output for Final Observed

Variable Path Model 734
Appendix 16.2 Abbreviated SAS Output for the Final
Latent Variable Path Model for Exercise Behavior 736

Appendix A: Statistical Tables 747

Appendix B: Obtaining Nonorthogonal Contrasts in Repeated Measures Designs 763
Detailed Answers 771
Index785
PREFACE

The first five editions of this text have been received warmly, and we are grateful for
that.

This edition, like previous editions, is written for those who use, rather than develop,
advanced statistical methods. The focus is on conceptual understanding rather than
proving results. The narrative and many examples are there to promote understanding,
and a chapter on matrix algebra is included for those who need the extra help. Through-
out the book, you will find output from SPSS (version 21) and SAS (version 9.3) with
interpretations. These interpretations are intended to demonstrate what analysis results
mean in the context of a research example and to help you interpret analysis results
properly. In addition to demonstrating how to use the statistical programs effectively,
our goal is to show you the importance of examining data, assessing statistical assump-
tions, and attending to sample size issues so that the results are generalizable. The
text also includes end-of-chapter exercises for many chapters, which are intended to
promote better understanding of concepts and have you obtain additional practice in
conducting analyses and interpreting results. Detailed answers to the odd-numbered
exercises are included in the back of the book so you can check your work.

NEW TO THIS EDITION

Many changes were made in this edition of the text, including a new lead author of
the text. In 2012, Dr.€Keenan Pituch of the University of Texas at Austin, along with
Dr.€James Stevens, developed a plan to revise this edition and began work. The goals
in revising the text were to provide more guidance on practical matters related to data
analysis, update the text in terms of the statistical procedures used, and firmly align
those procedures with findings from methodological research.

Key changes to this edition are:

 Inclusion of analysis summaries and example results sections

 Focus on just two software programs (SPSS version 21 and SAS version 9.3)
xvi ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 Preface

 New chapters on Binary Logistic Regression (Chapter€11) and Multivariate Mul-

tilevel Modeling (Chapter€14)
 Completely rewritten chapters on structural equation modeling (SEM), explorato-
ry factor analysis, and hierarchical linear modeling.

ANALYSIS SUMMARIES AND EXAMPLE RESULTS SECTIONS

The analysis summaries provide a convenient guide for the analysis activities we gen-
erally recommend you use when conducting data analysis. Of course, to carry out these
activities in a meaningful way, you have to understand the underlying statistical con-
cepts—something that we continue to promote in this edition. The analysis summa-
ries and example results sections will also help you tie together the analysis activities
involved for a given procedure and illustrate how you may effectively communicate
analysis results.

The analysis summaries and example results sections are provided for several techniques.
Specifically, they are provided and applied to examples for the following procedures:
one-way MANOVA (sections€6.11–6.13), two-way MANOVA (sections€7.6–7.8), one-
way MANCOVA (example 8.4 and sections€8.15 and 8.17), exploratory factor analysis
(sections€ 9.12, 9.17, and 9.18), discriminant analysis (sections€ 10.7.1, 10.7.2, 10.8,
10.14, and 10.15), and binary logistic regression (sections€11.19 and 11.20).

FOCUS ON SPSS AND SAS

Another change that has been implemented throughout the text is to focus the use of
software on two programs: SPSS (version 21) and SAS (version 9.3). Previous edi-
tions of this text, particularly for hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and structural
equation modeling applications, have introduced additional programs for these pur-
poses. However, in this edition, we use only SPSS and SAS because these programs
have improved capability to model data from more complex designs, and reviewers
of this edition expressed a preference for maintaining software continuity throughout
the text. This continuity essentially eliminates the need to learn (and/or teach) addi-
tional software programs (although we note there are many other excellent programs
available). Note, though, that for the structural equation modeling chapter SAS is used
exclusively, as SPSS requires users to obtain a separate add on module (AMOS) for
such analyses. In addition, SPSS and SAS syntax and output have also been updated
as needed throughout the text.

NEW CHAPTERS

Chapter€11 on binary logistic regression is new to this edition. We included the chapter
on logistic regression, a technique that Alan Agresti has called the “most important
 Preface ↜渀屮 ↜渀屮 xvii

model for categorical response data,” due to the widespread use of this procedure in
the social sciences, given its ability to readily incorporate categorical and continu-
ous predictors in modeling a categorical response. Logistic regression can be used for
explanation and classification, with each of these uses illustrated in the chapter. With
the inclusion of this new chapter, the former chapter on Categorical Data Analysis: The
Log Linear Model has been moved to the website for this text.

Chapter€14 on multivariate multilevel modeling is another new chapter for this edi-
tion. This chapter is included because this modeling procedure has several advan-
tages over the traditional MANOVA procedures that appear in Chapters€4–6 and
provides another alternative to analyzing data from a design that has a grouping
variable and several continuous outcomes (with discriminant analysis providing yet
another alternative). The advantages of multivariate multilevel modeling are pre-
sented in Chapter€14, where we also show that the newer modeling procedure can
replicate the results of traditional MANOVA. Given that we introduce this additional
and flexible modeling procedure for examining multivariate group differences, we
have eliminated the chapter on stepdown analysis from the text, but make it available
on the web.

REWRITTEN AND IMPROVED CHAPTERS

In addition, the chapter on structural equation modeling has been completely rewritten
by Dr.€Tiffany Whittaker of the University of Texas at Austin. Dr.€Whittaker has taught
a structural equation modeling course for many years and is an active methodological
researcher in this area. In this chapter, she presents the three major applications of
SEM: observed variable path analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and latent varia-
ble path analysis. Note that the placement of confirmatory factor analysis in the SEM
chapter is new to this edition and was done to allow for more extensive coverage of
the common factor model in Chapter€ 9 and because confirmatory factor analysis is
inherently a SEM technique.

Chapter€9 is one of two chapters that have been extensively revised (along with Chap-
ter€13). The major changes to Chapter€9 include the inclusion of parallel analysis to
help determine the number of factors present, an updated section on sample size, sec-
tions covering an overall focus on the common factor model, a section (9.7) providing
a student- and teacher-friendly introduction to factor analysis, a new section on cre-
ating factor scores, and the new example results and analysis summary sections. The
research examples used here are also new for exploratory factor analysis, and recall
that coverage of confirmatory analysis is now found in Chapter€16.

Major revisions have been made to Chapter€13, Hierarchical Linear Modeling. Sec-
tion€13.1 has been revised to provide discussion of fixed and random factors to help
you recognize when hierarchical linear modeling may be needed. Section€13.2 uses
a different example than presented in the fifth edition and describes three types of
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