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CAMPAIGNING FOR PRESIDENT 2016
Edited by
Dennis W. Johnson and Lara M. Brown
George Washington University
Published 2018
by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
The right of Dennis W. Johnson and Lara M. Brown to be identified as the
author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual
chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without
intent to infringe.
First edition published by Routledge 2009
Second edition published by Routledge 2013
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
Typeset in Bembo
by Saxon Graphics Ltd, Derby
CONTENTS
PART I
The Primaries 45
4 Trump’s Appeal 81
Mark S. Mellman
PART II
Money and Communication 103
PART III
The General Election 189
Figures
3.1 Caucus and Primary Vote Shares of the Top Four Candidates
in the 2016 Republican Caucuses and Primaries 75
4.1 Clinton Vote Share by National and Individual Economic Indices 84
4.2 Presidential Vote by Views on Government 86
4.3 “Which is More Important to You Personally? ‘Order and
Stability’ or ‘Progress and Reform’?” 87
4.4 “Since the 1950s, Do You Think American Culture and Way of
Life Has ‘Mostly Changed for the Better,’ ‘Mostly Changed for the
Worse,’ or ‘Not Changed Much at All’?” And Presidential Vote
by Views on Cultural Change since the 1950s 88
4.5 Views of Feminists, And Presidential Vote by Views of Feminists 89
4.6 “Which Statement Comes Closer to Your Own Views –
Even if Neither is Exactly Right? ‘The Number of Newcomers
from Other Countries Threatens Traditional American Customs
and Values’ or ‘The Number of Newcomers from Other Countries
Strengthens American Society’” 93
4.7 Presidential Vote by Candidate Favorability 97
4.8 Strongest Determinants of a Trump Vote among White Voters 99
Tables
1.1 Republican and Democratic Presidential and Vice Presidential
Candidates 6
5.1 Presidential Candidates, Receipts and Disbursements, in Millions 109
viii Illustrations
Lara M. Brown is associate professor and director of the GSPM. She is the author
of Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants (2010)
and co-editor of The Presidential Leadership Dilemma: Between the Constitution and
a Political Party (2012). Along with publishing a number of academic journal
articles, she serves as a regular contributor to U.S. News & World Report’s “Thomas
Jefferson Street” blog. Prior to her work in academia, Brown served as a political
appointee in President William J. Clinton’s administration in the U.S. Department
of Education in Washington, D.C.
the Eyes of Political Professionals (2016) and author of The Right Moment: Ronald
Reagan’s First Victory and the Decisive Turning Point in American Politics (2004).
Major Garrett is chief White House correspondent for CBS News. Previously,
he was White House correspondent for National Journal, Fox News, and CNN,
and congressional correspondent for U.S. News & World Report. He was also
congressional correspondent and deputy national editor for The Washington
Times. Garrett has won news writing awards from the Associated Press and United
Press International. He is co-author (with former Minnesota congressman Tim
Penny) of The 15 Biggest Lies in Politics (2000) and Common Cents (1995).
Recently, his firm was named “pollster of the year” by the AAPC, the third time
it has won that prestigious award. The Mellman Group has been cited as the most
accurate campaign pollster in the country by Nate Silver of the New York Times.
Katie Packer is a veteran Republican political consultant and strategist, who has
worked in presidential campaigns since 1988. She was deputy campaign manager
for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, and founding partner of the
Michigan-based consulting firm WPP Strategies and the Washington, D.C.-
based all-female consulting firm Burning Glass Consulting. In early 2016, she
founded Our Principles PAC, an anti-Trump Super PAC. She is an adjunct
professor at the GSPM and a fellow at the Georgetown University Institute of
Politics.
Suzanne Zurn was the vice president of digital strategy at DCI Group,
Washington, D.C. She is a former Republican political operative and veteran
digital consultant who cut her teeth early in the business at political technology
firms. She is best known for her work on award-winning digital public affairs
campaigns. Zurn earned an M.A. from the GSPM, where she currently is an
adjunct faculty member teaching a course on digital strategy.
PREFACE
This series, Campaigning for President, is unique among those works that analyze
presidential elections. It combines the talents and experience of political
consultants, both Republicans and Democrats, with the scholarly analysis of
political scientists who specialize in campaigns and elections. The book is divided
into three parts: the primaries; money and communications; and the general
election. In addition there are seven appendices giving valuable information
about the candidates, primary and general election results, a timeline of events,
and, unique among books on presidential elections, a roster of the most important
political consultants and campaign operatives for the candidates.
In the 2008 edition of Campaigning for President, the opening chapter was titled
“An Election Like No Other.” In one of the best-run operations, the campaign
staff headed by David Plouffe and David Axelrod, helped propel Barack Obama
to victory, first defeating Hillary Clinton in the hotly contested primaries then
besting John McCain in the general election. The 2008 election was unique from
an historical sense, with the election of America’s first black president. From a
campaigning perspective, the Obama campaign stood out because of its brilliant
implementation of technology and big data, along with its low-keyed, “no
drama” execution of electoral strategy execution.
That unique and historic 2008 contest, however, pales in comparison to the
gyrations, trash-talking, unorthodox campaigning, and electoral surprises of 2016.
This contentious, unpredicted, and truly nasty 2016 presidential election redefines
the meaning of “An Election Like No Other.”
Several themes emerge from our analysis of this election. Like much of the
campaign itself, many of its distinguishing features center on the personality,
strategy, and tactics of Donald Trump.
xiv Preface
First, this truly was a historic election. For the first time, a woman became the
standard bearer for a major party. Few candidates could match Hillary Clinton in
the depth and breadth of her public service experience. At the same time, not
since 1940 had a candidate such as Donald Trump been chosen, a public affairs
neophyte who lacked any prior elected office, military service, and any public
service experience.
Never in modern presidential history had both major parties been torn apart
by insurgent candidates; Donald Trump ripping through the Republican
primaries, with Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders putting up
impressive fights in their primaries as well.
Never had a candidate openly and repeatedly charged, without any evidence,
that the core element of our democratic system, the election process, had been
rigged and that the results would be fraudulent. Further, no presidential aspirant,
until Donald Trump, had ever hesitated in accepting the outcome of the election.
This election was also unprecedented for the redefining of the role of the
media. For decades, television has been the dominant vehicle for communicating
campaign ideas and messages. During this election, we have seen one candidate,
again Trump, successfully exploit free media and single-handedly capture the
daily news cycle, through his clever and persistent use of Twitter, relaying his
highly acerbic remarks, putdowns, and accusations directly to his faithful
followers, bypassing the mainstream media. In this new world of political
communication, mainstream media was the enemy, not to be trusted, and political
reality was revealed in 140 characters on Twitter.
In this election, we have also seen unprecedented spread of fake news. Online
platforms have opened up a wild west of communications, allowing anyone to
spread rumor, innuendo, and falsehood to millions of viewers. Fake news and
rumors are not unique to this election; we’ve seen all this before. But what is
different is the widespread proliferation of fake news, to a degree not seen
previously. The combination of an angry, disconnected audience, that was highly
suspicious of elite institutions (particularly the mainstream media), that got its
information (and at times disinformation) directly from candidates and causes,
was the new reality of presidential campaigns.
For the first time, we have seen direct and compelling evidence that another
country, Russia, has attempted to influence the presidential election, by its
hacking of Democratic Party computers, by leaking damaging information to
WikiLeaks, and by attempting to embarrass Hillary Clinton and aid Donald
Trump.
Another distinguishing feature of this election was the gutter-level of discourse,
again almost exclusively generated by Donald Trump. In past elections, there
have been accusations, harsh characterizations, and unfair portrayals. But nothing
compared with the insults, putdowns, and general trash-talking found in this
campaign. Trump was able to drag down some of his Republican opponents to
his rhetorical level, but even the most belligerent (Ted Cruz and Chris Christie)
Preface xv
could not match Trump’s diatribes. And the more Trump spouted and
harrumphed, the more his followers ate it up.
Candidates have always come in for scrutiny as they enter the presidential
election ring. But none in modern history has endured the insults, the demeaning
and untrue charges, and the visceral hatred leveled against Hillary Clinton. We
have never before seen the spectacle of Republican convention delegates shouting
“Lock Her Up,” or candidate Trump stoking up his faithful followers by
promising to prosecute and toss her in jail. Clinton was certainly a flawed and
imperfect candidate, but never has such candidate endured that level of ridicule
and scorn.
Since the 1960s, presidential campaigns had relied on political consultants and
seasoned political operatives to help guide the candidates through the hurdles and
landmines of the arduous campaign season. This professional campaign model
was carefully followed by Hillary Clinton. Her senior advisors were some of the
best and brightest campaign operatives, many of whom previously had worked
for the successful Obama campaigns. But not so for Donald Trump. He ran
through a series of political consultants, but relied to a great degree on his own
instincts and skills, his family members, and bare-knuckle supporters, like Steve
Bannon, who also had very little campaign experience, but considerable
experience in ideological warfare.
This election was distinctive when looking at campaign finances. Never
before had a candidate raised so much money online as had Bernie Sanders, and
never before had a candidate earned so much free media, as Trump did, that he
did not have to invest heavily in paid media. In this post-Citizens United world,
we have seen outside groups, both individuals and Super PACs, spend enormous
amounts of money on presidential and congressional campaigns. This time was
something quite different. Vast amounts of money were spent by wealthy
individuals for Super PACs, but particularly on the Republican side, with very
little to show for their investments. The Republican winner, Donald Trump, had
the best return on his investment, spending far less per delegate won than anyone
else, and at the same time eschewing Super PAC help. Just like in 2012, the
eventual winner spent less money than his general election opponent. Some of
the most active individual donors in past elections, like the Koch brothers, mostly
stayed out of the presidential contest and concentrated their spending on
congressional races.
Another theme, which follows from much that is written above, was the
opportunistic genius of Donald Trump. He defeated what probably was the best
qualified field of Republicans, picking them off one by one; he became a media
darling by his outrageous behavior, gaining a couple billion dollars in free media.
At the same time, he castigated the media as the enemy, cast widespread doubt
about its legitimacy, thereby defanging it in the process. He ignored the
mainstream press by going directly to his supporters through social media. He
fought with his own party’s leadership, ran his own campaign without a gaggle of
xvi Preface
consultants, used his own highly attuned instincts for grabbing attention and
giving his followers what they wanted to hear. He was out-spent, out-maneuvered,
and out-strategized by his well-funded and competent opponent, but still
managed to win. He was the deeply flawed candidate, who managed to alienate
wide swaths of voters, but who convinced just enough voters in the right states
that he was far better than his horrible opponent. His was a dark, dystopian view
of the world with its threats and imminent dangers, and a world of incompetent
public officials and uncaring and corrupt public institutions. Through his bravado
and snake-oil salesmanship he promised to fix difficult and complex problems
through quick and bold solutions. He was the bull in the china shop, and his
supporters loved him for it. He broke the mold in what we usually think of as a
presidential candidate. There may never be another like him, with his swagger,
ego, and temperament.
We were also compelled to look more seriously at disaffected voters, their
world views, their fears, and their profound sense of distrust of institutions and
the political class. It brought into stark contrast the worlds of urban, educated,
culturally diverse voters with the world of rural, less educated, conservative,
white Americans. For this latter 46 percent of voters, Trump was the answer, and
change, not perpetuation of the Obama legacy, was the dominant, successful
theme. They overlooked Trump’s many faults, banking on his assurance of
“draining the swamp” and bringing about fundamental change. The irony, of
course, was while this may have been a change election, hardly anything changed
in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Finally, the results caught many people (including us) off guard. Who could
have predicted a Trump victory? A variety of national polls showed that, while
the election was close, Clinton would undoubtedly win. Was this some sort of
conspiracy of the media elite (as Trump would imply), poor polling techniques,
or perhaps a misreading of results (thanks in part to the project of results found in
aggregation polling sites) and the margins of error? In hindsight there were plenty
of signs of trouble, for not only Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party, but
also for continuing the Obama legacy. Several social scientists, using well-
developed predictive models, forecast a rocky time for Clinton, and a victory for
Trump. Such models discount personality and ego, relying instead on economic
trends, social indicators, and incumbency. Perhaps the most prescient observer
was not a social scientist, but filmmaker and social advocate Michael Moore, who
looking at those who were attracted to Trump saw his own people—disaffected
middle-class voters in the industrial heartland of America. They were angry and
disappointed, and they were ready for change.
Preface xvii
What Follows
In Chapter 1, Dennis W. Johnson presents an overview of the 2016 campaign,
particularly putting it in historical context and suggesting the major themes that
have unfolded through the arduous primary and general election season.
Part I, on the primaries, begins with Chapter 2 by political scientist Lilly J.
Goren. She analyzes the Democratic primary contests, the strategy and tactics of
Hillary Clinton, the insurgency of Bernie Sanders, the role of primary campaign
financing, and the search for delegates and super delegates. In Chapter 3, political
scientist Wayne P. Steger focuses on the much different dynamics and players in
the Republic primaries. Steger looks at the strengths and weaknesses of the large
field of candidates, the deep divisions within the Republican Party, and how
Trump ultimately triumphed. In Chapter 4, Democratic polling consultant Mark
S. Mellman focuses on Donald Trump: What was it that he ignited in his fervent
followers, what was the role of personality and celebrity, and what motivated
voters to give this deeply flawed candidate the benefit of the doubt?
Part II covers money and communication. In Chapter 5, political scientists
Anthony Corrado and Tassin Braverman show us how Donald Trump defied
conventional wisdom regarding money and politics, was outspent by Clinton and
her Super PAC allies, but managed to win. Trump was not the only outlier:
Bernie Sanders also took an unusual, and highly successful, approach to raising
campaign money. In Chapter 6, former Republican strategist Suzanne Zurn
looks at the advances in campaign technology and the use of social media by the
candidates and outside groups. Once again, the focus is on Trump: with his
mastery of social media and his ability to constantly seize the spotlight. Democratic
media consultant Peter Fenn focuses on political advertising in Chapter 7. For
Fenn, who has been involved in media politics for thirty years, the fundamental
question is, just what is political advertising? Is it the traditional television, radio,
or print ads, or is it Facebook, Snapchat, and Twitter? Fenn analyzes what works
in advertising, what doesn’t, and where elections are headed. Political scientists
Michael Cornfield and Michael D. Cohen, in Chapter 8, dig deeper into social
media, particularly into the use of Twitter, popular hashtagged phrases, and the
message war between Clinton and Trump. Cornfield and Cohen argue that
hashtagged phrases enhance the campaigns in four basic ways. In Chapter 9, CBS
chief White House correspondent Major Garrett focuses on the press, the
candidates, and the coverage of the campaign. Garrett gives us a first-hand
account of the frustrations and difficulties of trying to cover Donald Trump.
Part III shifts to the general election. In Chapter 10, political scientist Stephen
K. Medvic examines the outside voices: the Super PACs, the national political
parties, and other non-candidate actors. Republican consultant Katie Packer, in
Chapter 11, analyzes the strategy and tactics of the Trump–Pence campaign
during the general election. Similarly, Democratic consultant Maria Cardona, in
Chapter 12, focuses on the strategy and tactics of the Clinton–Kaine campaign
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